Classical Geopolitics III: The Cold War

outline

1) Visions Revisited

2) Critical Views

3) Spykman

4) Kennan

5) Cohen

6) O’Loughlin

Visions Revisited III: Heartland vs. Rimland

Critical Views I: Context. Causality. Continuity.

Who caused the Cold War?1) Orthodox School: USSR2) Revisionist School: USA3) Post-Revisionist School: USA + USSR4) World-Systems School: unequal exchange

Critical Views II: “Cold” War?

Five Phases of the Cold War

1) First Cold War (‘47-’53)

2) Oscillatory Antagonism (‘53-’67)

3) First Détente (‘67-’79)

4) Second Cold War (‘80-’86)

5) Second Détente (‘86-’89)

Containment II: Kennan

Kennan’s Policy Prescriptions

1) Reduce Soviet capacity to project external influence

2) Encourage self-confidence against USSR expansion

3) Don’t fuel Soviet paranoia via antagonism

4) Alter USSR’s worldview from confrontation to negotiation

5) Diplomatic: Restore European balance of power

6) Economic: Rebuild war-torn economies (Europe/Japan)

7) Dynamic: Selective containment (W. Europe/E.Asia/Mid-East)

8) Divide international communism

9) Use local troops

10) Not monolithic strategy; adapt to local context

Containment III: Global Threats

Strategic Soviet Objectives According to NSC (1950)1) Secure Communist regime and USSR2) Maintain E.Europe + China in Soviet Bloc3) Eliminate American influence from Eurasia; isolate USA4) Expand Communist power throughout Russia5) Eliminate USA as competing power6) Spread Communism worldwide as “fanatical faith”

Containment IV: FormalCodes

American Geopolitical Codes

1) Truman Doctrine (‘47-’49): -Kennan’s regional containment

2) NSC-68 (‘50-’53):-Globalist containment

3) Eisenhower-Dulles (‘53-’60):-”New Look”

4) Kennedy-Johnson (‘61-’66):-”Flexible Response”

5) Nixon-Ford-Carter (‘69-’79):-Détente

6) Reagan Cold War II (‘80-’87):-”Rollback”

(a) Kennan vs. (b) NSC-681) Geopolitical Strategy

a) Deny USSR key areasb) Do not give an inch

2) USSR as threata) Only if balance upsetb) Constant threat

3) How to fight Communisma) Economicb) military

4) USA capabilitiesa) Limitedb) Unlimited

5) Role of diplomacya) importantb) not important

6) Role of strength perceptionsa) Not importantb) important

7) Goals of US policy vs. USSRa) Act to maintain equilibriumb) ‘frustrate Kremlin design’

8) Local vs American troopsa) locals w/US supportb) commit Americas

Popular Discourses II: Reagan, Roll-back, + Realism

Central Arguments in Reagan’s Geopolitical Analysis1) Form all-oceans alliance vs. USSR; focus on seapower via chokepoints2) Ally with regionally strong states (South Africa; Brazil)3) Soviet threat is geostrategic + ideological4) Power: objective (population; economy; military)5) Power: subjective (national strategy; national will)

Popular Discourses III: “chokepoints”

1) Cape Horn

2) Panama Canal

3) Cape of Good Hope

4) Suez Canal

5) GIUK Gap

6) English Channel

7) Baltic Straits

8) Strait of Gibraltar

9) Bosporus/Dardanelles

10) Bab El Mandeb

11) Strait of Hormuz

12) Malaccan Straits

Competing Explanations I: shatterbelt regions (Cohen)

1) Complex ethnic/cultural mosaic2) Location of global resource (oil)3) History of local conflicts4) Attracts interests of world powers5) Global-local alliances via regions/realms/gateways6) Potential for major extra-regional conflict

Competing Explanations II: Ordering the Crush Zone (O’Loughlin)