click to edit master title style china’s food security and nutrition in the global context...

Click to edit Master title style

China’s food security and nutrition in the global context

Shenggen FanDirector General | International Food Policy Research Institute

Development Research Center of the State CouncilBeijing | December 23, 2014


Shenggen Fan, December 2014

Key messages

Hunger and malnutrition remain big challenges

Both global and China’s food security and nutrition are increasingly vulnerable

Policies, technologies, and institutions are critical

China’s role is crucial to end global hunger and malnutrition



Hunger and malnutrition remain big challenges globally and in China



Despite progress, hunger is still a problem in the world and in China

Undernourishment in China and the world, 1990-2014

China is home to the second largest population of hungry people in the world

Source: FAO 2014

1990-92 2000-02 2005-07 2009-11 2012-140

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Number-China Number-World Prevalence-China (right axis) Prevalence-World (right axis)

Mill

ion

s

%



Child malnutrition is widespread

Estimated prevalence of undernutrition in children under-five, 2011 (%)

Source: WHO, UNICEF, and World Bank 2011, Global Nutrition Report 2014Note: SA=South Asia; SSA=Africa south of the Sahara; LAC= Latin America and Caribbean; SEA= South-East Asia

• 165 million children under-five are stunted globally• 8.3 million children under-five are stunted in China

SSA SA SEA LAC Developing Countries World0

10

20

30

4040

37

28

12

2826

21

31

17

3

17 16

9

15

10

2

9 8

Stunting

Underweight

Wasting



Overweight and obesity are rising

Prevalence of overweight and obese children under-5, 1990-2020 (%)

Source: de Onis, et al. 2010Note: Asia excludes Japan; Developed Countries includes Japan

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

3

6

9

12

15 AfricaAsiaDeveloped CountriesDeveloping Coun-tries

Overweight and obese children to rise

by 43% in developing countries (2010-2020)

Source: Ng et al. 2014

In 2013• 2.1 billion are overweight and obese

• 62% of world’s obese live in developing countries

3.4 mil. deaths annually related to overweight and obesity (Lim et al. 2012)

Overweight and obesity in Asia• China: Over 27% for men and women

• South Asia: 20% of men, 23% of women

• Southeast Asia: 22% of men, 28% of women



The coexistence of multiple burdens of malnutrition

Source: Global Nutrition Report 2014, Liu et al 2013

China has reduced malnutrition, but multiple burdens exist• 9.4% child stunting

• 19.6% anemia

• 25% overweight

Anemia and child stunting more prevalent in rural areas

Child overweight more prevalent in urban areas

Zero9%

One37%Two

40%

Three15%

Percentage of countries by number of burdens of child malnutrition (stunting, wasting, and overweight)

55% of countries with data have multiple types of under-five malnutrition



Malnutrition is costly, but investments in nutrition have high returns

DRC

Madagascar

Ethiopia

Nepal

Yemen

Uganda

Tanzania

Burma

Bangladesh

Kenya

Sudan

Nigeria

Pakistan

India

Vietnam

Philippines

Indonesia

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

US$

Economic returns to US$ 1 invested in reducing stunting

Source: Hoddinott et al. 2013

Economic losses per year

Malnutrition

• 5% of global GDP (US$3.5 trillion)

Undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies

• Global: 2-3% of GDP

• Asia: ~11% of GNP during 20th century (but will begin to decline circa 2019)

Obesity

• 2% of global GDP (US$2 trillion)

Source: Horton and Steckel 2013, FAO 2013, McKinsey 2014



Both global and China’s food security and nutrition are increasingly vulnerable



Challenges to both global and China’s food security and nutrition

Increasing population and urbanization

Rising incomes, and demand / diet changes

Growing natural resource constraints

Rising agricultural-related risks to health

Climate change and higher frequency / intensity of extreme weather events

Increasing food price spikes and volatility



Growing population, urbanization, and shrinking rural labor

Growing and more urban population (billions)

Source: UN 2011

0

500000

1000000

1500000RuralUrban

Urb

an

po

pu

lati

on

Ru

ral

lab

or

Urban > Rural in 2011

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000Urban

Rural

WORLDCHINA

Share of employment in China, %

1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

25

50

75

100

Agriculture Non-agriculture

Source: FAO 2013

2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011100

120

140

160

180

200Africa Asia

LAC World

Cumulative real wage growth (2000 = 100)

Source: ILO 2013



Rising incomes and diet/demand changes

Source: OECD 2010

Wea

lth

0

20,000

40,000

60,000China

World

US

$ ‘0

00

s, 2

00

5 P

PP

Rising GDP per capita

China’s growing middle class

Source: OECD 2013

Wheat

Course Grains

Rice

Poultry

Beef

Pork

Fish

Fresh Dairy

Cheese

Sugar

Veg. oil

0 10 20 30 40 50

China

Developing

OECD

Global food demand expected to rise

60% by 2050 (FAO 2012)

Change in consumption of agric. products 2009/11 to 2021 (%)



Growing land and water constraints

24% of global land area affected by degradation (1981–2003)

Annual forest net loss = 5.2 mil. ha (2000-10)

Arable land per capita

• 65% (1970-00)

• expected to further 50% by 2050

Annual loss of per capita arable land in developing countries, 1961–2009

Source: FAO 2011; Nkonya et al. 2011

With “business as usual,” high water stress by 2050 puts at risk globally

• 52% of population

• 49% of grain production

• 45% of GDP

Water stress for total renewable water withdrawn, BAU, 2050 (%)

Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011



High environmental stresses in China

Environmental degradation in China’s grain production

Source: You, Spoor, and Ulimwengu 2010

Environmental protection lags behind

2014 Environmental Performance Index rank = 118th out of 178 countries

Double burden of air and water pollution harms wellbeing and growth

• Total cost of air and water pollution = 5.8% of GDP



Rising agriculture-related risks to health

Picture source: ILRI 2013

Human health increasingly

affected by intense food production

Affects smallholders’ ability to undertake more

productive and innovative activities

Food safety risks • Unregulated food production

• Increasing proximity of industrial and agricultural activities

• E.g. milk and rice contamination

Animal-borne diseases

Source: ILRI 2012



Food safety challenges in China

Expansion and modernization of food system in China• Weak monitoring along value chain• Lack of capacity to meet standards, esp. for smallholders

Contamination of resources by industrial activities• 20% of arable land is polluted

83% contaminated with inorganic material incl. cadmium, nickel, and arsenic(Government of China 2014)

Focus on agric. intensification with policies encouraging use of chemical fertilizer• Fertilizer use increased by factor of 25 from 1970-2010 (Kahrl 2010)



Increasing challenge from climate change

Impact of climate change on mean crop yield

Source: WRI 2013, IPCC 2014, World Bank 2013

Needed: 14% in crop yield per decade

Happening: 20% in global cereal yields by 2050



Potential climate change impact on crop yields in China

Adverse impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture

Source: Piao 2010



Higher food price spikes and volatility

Global cereal prices (US$/ton) Projected changes in global agricultural commodity prices, 2010-2050

Maize

Pork

Poultry

Rapeseed

Wheat

Rice

Soybean

Beef

Milk

Lamb

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Source: Data from FAO 2014Source: Rosegrant et al. 2013

Notes: The changes are calculated assuming current policies are maintained

Jan-

00

Feb-0

1

Mar

-02

Apr-0

3

May

-04

Jun-

05

Jul-0

6

Aug-0

7

Sep-0

8

Oct-09

Nov-1

0

Dec-1

1

Jan-

13

Feb-1

40

200

400

600

800Maize

Wheat

Rice



Policies, technologies, and institutionsare critical for achieving food security and

nutrition



Pathways for achieving both global and China’s food security and nutrition

1. Support policies for more efficient, inclusive, and safe food production systems

2. Advance frontiers for sustainable intensive & nutrition-sensitive technologies

3. Promote open trade and reduce food price volatility

4. Scale up productive and cross-sectoral social safety nets

5. Support south-south learning



Improve land tenure security e.g. via certification of land use rights

Promote well-functioning land rental and sale markets

Ensure adequate compensation for requisitioning of land

Enhance land contract enforcements and establish legal grievance systems

Extend terms of rural land use rights

1. Support policies for more efficient, inclusive, and safe food production systems



Support efficient, inclusive, and safe food value chains

Develop better understanding of agriculture- related disease transmissions

Upgrade legal, regulatory, and institutional framework that covers entire supply chain

Improve food safety monitoring by enhancing capacity and resources of monitoring agencies and consumers

Increase capacity of stakeholders in food supply chain to meet safety regulations

Support institutional innovations for vertical and horizontal coordination



Increase investment in reduction of postharvest losses in developing countries• China: Half of imported food from January to October 2014 was lost; requires

technology, infrastructure, and post-harvest handling

Reduce food waste—educate consumers• China: US$32 billion thrown away; in United States: US$124.1 billion

(WRI 2013, Venkat 2011)

Employ regulation that is not overly restrictive for lesser food waste

Promote right prices of food and natural resources that fully reflect costs to environment / climate • Social safety nets needed for the poor if food becomes too expensive

Reduce food losses and waste



2. Advance frontiers for sustainable intensive & nutrition-sensitive technologies

Expand agric. R&D investments for

• Breeding high yielding, high-nutrient crop and livestock varieties

• Conserving water and energy alongside soil nutrient-use efficiency

• Exploiting GHG reduction potential of agriculture through “triple win” strategies (adaptation/mitigation/productivity)

High-iron and high-zinc rice

Solar-powered drip irrigation

Drought tolerant rice

Stem rust resistant wheat

Laser land leveling Nano technology food testing

Picture sources: IRRI, New Agriculturist, and Zen Gardner



Genetically modified (GM) crops can• Boost yields

• Improve nutritional quality

• Increase resistance to stresses e.g. disease, pest, drought

• Lower fertilizer and water application

Harness potential of GM crops

• Strengthen biosafety regulations, M&E

• Leverage public private partnership in agric. R&D on GM technologies

• Scale up institutional innovations e.g. in finance, extension, insurance

• Improve communication strategy

Harness the potential of genetically modified crops



Promoting sustainable intensificationNitrogen efficient technologies

South Asia Africa south of the Sahara0

5

10

15

20

25Maize Rice

Impact of nitrogen efficient technologies on yields in 2050, % change

South Asia Africa south of the Sahara

0

1

2

3

4

Developing coun-tries

Africa south of the Sahara

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

Impact of nitrogen efficient technologies on kcal availability/person/day in 2050, % change

Impact of nitrogen efficient technologies on # of malnourished children in 2050, % change

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014



3. Promote open trade and reduce food price volatility

Eliminate distortionary trade policies • Promotes efficient allocation of resources and improves access to

food

Support regional emergency food reserves• Expand ASEAN+3 emergency rice reserve;

improve its functioning by addressing current challenges

• Use lessons learned to inform scale-up in other countries

Monitor food prices and speculation• IFPRI’s Food Security Portal

(Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System)

• Agricultural Market information system (AMIS)



Better-targeted and more productive social protection policies

• Short-term cushion for coping with livelihood shocks

• Long-term productivity-enhancing or exit opportunities for smallholders

Cross-sectoral social protection to reach poor more effectively e.g.

Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program• Access to both safety nets and ag. support improves food security and

asset building (Berhane et al. 2014)

Bangladesh’s Vulnerable Group Development Program• Food security and nutrition interventions with income-generating

activities that target women (Ahmed et al. 2009)

4. Scale up productive social safety nets



Exploit large knowledge and resource base between developing countries

• E.g. South-South Experience Exchange Facility

Improve coordination among traditional and emerging donors

• Create clear institutional arrangements

• Share key experiences via partnerships e.g. WFP

Engage in broader and more innovative partnerships

• National and global research institutions, e.g. CGIAR

• Multi-disciplinary and multi-stakeholder research partnerships, e.g. Compact2025

5. Support exchange of technologies and know-how



Supports countries, institutions, and initiatives for eliminating hunger and undernutrition by 2025

Provides evidence and tools for countries to develop and implement context-specific road maps for action

Focuses on country-led approach with multi-sectoral, multi-stakeholder collaboration

Facilitates south-south learning

Compact2025A knowledge and innovation hub



China’s role in reducing global hunger and undernutrition is critical

Increased cooperation with Africa• Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (2000)• Silk Road Strategy (2014)

Participation in global institutions for financial and development assistance, i.e. New Development Bank

Agricultural technology transfer and mutual learning in institutions and policies• Smallholder agriculture-led strategy for reducing hunger and

poverty in China can be adapted elsewhere



In conclusion

Hunger and malnutrition remain persistent

Food security and nutrition in China and worldwide are experiencing related challenges

Policies, technologies, and institutions are key to eliminating hunger and malnutrition

China plays a critical role to achieve the goal

click to edit master title style china’s food security and nutrition in the global context...

Documents