click to edit master title style projecting ghg emissions & removals from agriculture &...
TRANSCRIPT
Click to edit Master title style
Projecting GHG emissions & removals from
Agriculture & LULUCF
New Zealand methods & experiences
Leonard Brown
New Zealand Climate Change Office
Presented at the UNFCCC workshop on projections Bonn Sept 6-8 2004
Click to edit Master title styleInstitutional arrangements
(for inventory & projections)
Agriculture Projections
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
New Zealand Climate Change Office Projections
MAFNational exotic forest database
Statistics New ZealandAnimal census & survey
AgResearch LtdCH4 Tier 2 methodology
Overseer N20 model
LULUCF Projections
MAF
NZCCONZ Carbon Accounting System
Forest Research LtdGrowth & C sequestration model
Click to edit Master title style• Animal population by species: beef, sheep, dairy,
deer – (Pastoral Supply Response Model)
• Productivity & emissions per animal.
• Forecast of nitrogen fertiliser usage.
Agriculture
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
0 5 10 15 20
Year since 1990
N fe
rtili
ser u
sed
(ton
nes
N)
• Policies & Measures•Environmental N constraints
•Price measures (C)
•Research
$NZ
Prices
Weather
Carrying capacity
Livestock
data
Click to edit Master title styleAgriculture improvements
•General model development - equations
•Changes in input parameters over time, e.g. forage quality
•Sensitivity analysis and scenario building
•Improved estimation of carrying capacity limit
•Improved stock unit estimation by livestock class
Click to edit Master title styleForestryKey drivers
•Area planted in Kyoto forests to date
•Scenarios of future new forest planting
•Carbon accumulation models
•Assumed rotation length
•Deforestation
10000 ha
10% deforestation
20000 ha
5% deforestation
30000 ha
0% deforestation
planting and Kyoto deforestation
scenarios
Click to edit Master title styleForestry improvements
•Modelling - Capability and FlexibilityImprove modelling – scenarios, vary multiple parameters
•Data - New Zealand Carbon Accounting SystemRefine & validate the accuracy of plantings since 1990
Refine and spatialise growth rates of planted forest
Improve deforestation estimate
Improve estimate of carbon in all pools for all forest