client x presentation 2 july 2016
TRANSCRIPT
Megatrends are gradual and deep-set trajectories of change that will at some point reshape the businessand policy environment. They typically have a decadal timeframe (e.g. 10-20 years) and occur at the intersection of multiple trends.
MAY 2016X
IBM offer cloud access to a 5 qubit quantum computer
Suggestions for CLIENT X
Clinton den HeyerAnalyst
CAN WE MAKE SOME ACCURATE PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF GOVERNMENTS?
Probably not “accurate” ones, but lets have a go based on movements in technology.
Problem:What should we focus on?
The rate of ground breaking innovations in science and tech is increasing. This indicates that we are now aware of the next megatrends.
While highly speculative, research indicates seven core drivers that deserve closer inspection and the industries they are likely to effect.
Two terms define time, scope and potential impact:
Short Term. A Pure Play Disruption tends to impact an industry by 30% and establish globally between 1 to 5 years.
Long Term. A Megatrend may develop gradually, in time reshaping the dynamics of the business and policy environment. Global shapers 5 to 20 years cadence.
Current StateMonetary Political Scale
Global SpectrumA combination of emerging forces threaten to create a perfect storm of larger, faster and seemingly sci-fi technology impacts. This presents complexity of a scale that economies have never been exposed to. It appears that the lessons of the past may not be transferable to the challenges of the future.
Current State
TotalatarinismNorth Korea
01Emerging Developing
03Capatilism
US
05
CommunismChina
02Democratic
Social CapatilismNZ
04Austrian/Libertarian
Europe
06
Monetary Political Scale
crypto currenc
y
STOCK EXCHANG
E
Core Drivers by 2036 MEGATREND2036
IoTgreenfintech p2p
GLOBAL TRADE
TRANSPORT
ENERGY
automationSUPPLY
CHAINS ALL CORE DRIVERS
FINANCE &
BANKING
WorkforceShort term: Baby boomers
exitingMedium: Low Millennial
entrance Long: Gen X’iting
Developing economies unable to support skills
shortage.
ExpertiseMedium: IT skills
shortage and increased demand drive up
industry wage rates creating a strong business case for robotics, AI and
automation.
BusinessWill process
automation, smart contracts and green energy offset loses posed by potential
increases in unemployment?
Government
What impacts will green energy have on property ownership? Will business efficiencies gained offset
potential taxation losses? Is legislation agile enough to deal with rapid change?
Unique conditions emerging with areas of impact
unemployment
MONETARY SYSTEMS
TREND2016
PURE PLAYDISRUPTO
R2020
Modular guidelines for competitive drivers1. Value Orientated Architecture X
Strategy
DISRUPT
Technology
AUTOMATE
Operations
ALIGN
People
ADVOCATE
Continuous Innovation
5. Actualisation
4. Agile Borders
3. 360 Value Creation
2. Continuous Learning
1. Identification of Core Values
2. Personal SecurityBuilding blocks to a trusted state of protection
1
5
2
4
35 step theorietical process toward the goal of “back of mind” personal identification. Internet security is complex. Given that personal identification is one of the largest in IT it will require a large, possibly complex, graduated solution strategy
PERSONAL BLOCKCHAIN
In compliment of, or to gradually replace, RealMe, a decentralized network of a partially permissioned blockchain could provide an initial “safer” state.
TIME STAMP RANDOM IDENTIFIER
There are numerous world clocks other than time zones. A “tumbler” is a tool which can allocate nodes of a blockchain to a “tumbled” identification tool. Internet clocks calculate network protocols to a millionith of a second. IPV6 will have to increase this.
NEXUS IDENTIFICATION
THEORY: Nexus have created an app that can map rooms. Heat identifiers and infared trackers are commercially available. If partial permissioned blockchain credibility is established a personal chain can enable unique gait identifiers to “recognise.”PROJECT “SOLI”
TESTING: Google is currently testing a camera that can “recognise” physical movements. The future of screenless interactive devices has started, and this may create opportunities in innovation for personal identification.
QUANTUM & ORGANIC
MARKET TESTING: IBM and Google have Quantum computers in testing and development. Quantum states enable data recognition through vast heat maps. They operate in Qubits, which can be either 1, or 2, or 1 and 2 simultaneously.
3. Green TransportTesla introduce the “Model T Ford” transport of the future. The disruptors get disrupted
2016 2016 2000 2022 20252014
Elon Musks “Tesla” sells 300,000 cars
in 2 weeks prompting
international legislation
change. Japan now has more electric filling stations than
petroleum stations.
Uber negotiate a deal with NZ Govt. To enter NZ Taxi market. Take advantage of Companies Act to ensure minimal employees – the “courier” model.
PREDICTED:
Driverless/Electric Cars will no longer
be a popular talking point at
Sunday BBQs. We will all know of
someone that has one.
The NZ Hearld films a “Tesla” driving itself over the Auckland Harbour bridge. No one notices. Google start testing a device to attach into petrol cars for driverless use
SPECULATIVE: Uber? Who is Uber? Public
transport as we know it will be
disrupted /collapse. Fleets of modular vechicles
will reduce commute.
Industry will conglomoritize.
Domestic flights will be imnpacted.
Companies will form aroud the proposition that driverless electric cars can run 24/7. Location and automated CRMs will text customers pick up times and email employers.
4. Future State
North Korea(Collapse)
2025Emerging (Growth)
2025???US
2018
China (Slowing)Border reduction
2020NZ
Accelerated Partial Privatisation
2023 Europe
(Solid Growth – increased
prosperity)
2025
Suggested Options for Monetary/Political/Economic Development
Banks, Finance, Insurance2016 The ripest fruit available for disruption: As the tech companies are about to take over the transport industry, so to will they dominate the monetary system. Banks will have to diversify into new markets. ASB will compete with Amazon and Google. What next?Analysis of abc.xyz: Google’s roll out strategy includes internet services globally and all renewable energy. The company that has mapped Earth, The Moon and Mars now has its sights firmly set on The Sun.
What are the implications for Government?
01 Introduction to DigitalA digital currency may be introduced that pays for goods and services that benefit Govt and community.
02 Accelerate Partial PrivitizationMedical/Police/almost all services: Partial privatization models allow for efficiencies and gradually move from tax reliance to income. NZ has been moving this way since the 80’s.03 Regional CurrenciesRegions may compete for competitive advantage and private investment through the introduction of potentially public listed currencies.
04 Sector Private sector currency creation. Potential for confusion and disaggregation short term, stabilization and financial independence long term.05 CommunityCommunities may create strategic alliances with communities in other countries stabilizing trade and international relationships.
4. Future StateSuggested Options for Monetary/Political/Economic Development
