climate 101: causes & effects of climate change and what we … · 2018-09-14 · 3. this rapid...
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Climate 101:The State of Earth’s Climate
Nancy Beller-Simms, PhDNOAA Climate Program Office
301-734-1205 | [email protected]
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Key messages
1. Earth is warming at an unusually rapid rate, and is projected to
warm by a lot more this century.
2. Human emission of heat-trapping gases is the primary reason
for the warming—carbon dioxide is a key concern.
3. This rapid warming and resulting climatic changes produce
harmful & costly extreme events.
4. Scientists understand the problem and human society has the
means to solve it.
5. An overwhelming majority (~97%) of climate scientists agree
with those first four statements.
6. BUT global warming isn’t the whole story; natural variability is
also a major factor for near- to mid-term planning.
7. Will provide authoritative online sources where you can learn
more.
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What’s the difference between
global warming & climate change?
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What’s the difference between
global warming & climate change?
Global warming is a long-term increase in annual
average temperature for the whole Earth.
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What’s the difference between
global warming & climate change?
Global warming is a long-term increase in annual
average temperature for the whole Earth.
Climate change can be an increase or decrease.
Climate change can be local, regional or global.
Climate change can refer to many parameters.
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What’s the difference between
climate change & climate variability?
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So, what’s the difference between
climate change & climate variability?
Climate change is a long-term (years to
centuries) change in meteorological and
environmental conditions that alter the average
of weather patterns due to natural or human
causes, or both.
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So, what’s the difference between
climate change & climate variability?
Climate change is a long-term (years to
centuries) change in meteorological and
environmental conditions that alter the average
of weather patterns due to natural or human
causes, or both.
Climate variability alters the average of weather
patterns due to natural causes on relatively
short to medium time spans (weeks to years).
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For example, changes in El Niño (top) and the Arctic
Oscillation (bottom) are due to natural climate variability
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For example, changes in El Niño (top) and the Arctic
Oscillation (bottom) are due to natural climate variability
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ENSO & AO brought an unusually severe winter to the mid-Atlantic
(left) and an unusually mild winter to the Pacific Northwest (right).
‘Snowmaggedon’ hit the U.S. mid-Atlantic in winter of 2010 while there was
no snow for the Olympic Winter Games in Vancouver, Canada, due to
unusually warm, dry conditions.
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So, is global warming real?
Wasn’t there a ‘hiatus’ after 1998?
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Earth is 1.5 F warmer than 20th century average.
NOAA Climate.gov
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Ten signs of a warming world
Temperature
of the Lower
AtmosphereSnow
Humidity
Air Temperature
over Ocean
Arctic
Sea Ice
Sea Surface
Temperature
Ocean Heat
Content
Global
Sea LevelAir Temperature
over Land
Glaciers
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Human CO2 emissions are of primary concern
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Moving outside the range of long-term historical variation
Historical perspective: an 800,000-year
record of carbon dioxide concentration
Average for 2011 (almost 392 ppm)
2011
Updated from Karl et al 2009
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Projected to move WAY outside the historical range by 2100
Average for 2011 (almost 392 ppm)
2011
Updated from Karl et al 2009
Historical perspective: an 800,000-year
record of carbon dioxide concentration
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Due to the unusually rapid build-up of heat-trapping
gases, Earth is projected to warm unusually rapidly
Source: U.S. Climate Science Special Report
Projected Annual Global
Carbon Emissions
Projected Global
Temperatures
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Overall, ice sheets & glaciers are melting
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Overall, global sea level is rising
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Why should we care?
Climate-related hazards are having,
and are project to have, costly
impacts on human and natural
systems.
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What is an ‘extreme event’?
An ‘extreme event’ is a
time and place in which
weather or climate
conditions — such as
temperature, precipitation,
prolonged drought, or
coastal flooding — rank
among the highest or
lowest of historical
measurements.
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A warmer world increases the
probability of extreme events
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People & communities are experiencing
more / more frequent extreme events…
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…with costly damages to infrastructure.
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People, communities, and essential
services face increasing risk
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U.S. natural catastrophes are on the rise
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U.S. financial losses are also rising
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What can we do about global
warming and its resultant climatic
changes?
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Improving our ability to cope
with, or avoid, harmful
impacts; or taking advantage
of newly favorable
conditions. Reducing risk
and vulnerability; or
exploiting opportunities.
Adaptation
Reducing greenhouse gas
emissions &/or removing
carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere can lessen the
severity of climate change
& its impacts.
Mitigation
Reducing atmospheric CO2 Coping with new conditions
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Adaptation: Anticipating and adjusting
to new conditions
• Protect habitat or structures
threatened by sea level rise
• Develop plans to ensure
adequate water supplies
• Plant different crops
• Develop new businesses /
business models
What
changes are
coming?
What changes
do we need to
make?
Assessing a region’s ability to handle
runoff from heavier precipitation
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Mitigation: reducing CO2 in the atmosphere
• Develop new habits to
eliminate wasted energy
• Switch to carbon-free
energy sources such as
solar and wind
• Plant trees to increase
the amount of CO2 taken
up by forests & to reduce
the severity of ‘urban
heat islands’
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Where can you go to access
authoritative climate science tools
and information online?
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Available online at
science2017.globalchange.gov
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Climate summaries for every U.S. state
https://statesummaries.ncics.org
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Climate summaries for every U.S. state
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Climate summaries for every U.S. state
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Helping people build climate resilience
https://toolkit.climate.gov
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41
CRT’s Climate Explorer
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Days per year with temperature ≥ 95°F
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Days per year with temperature ≥ 95°F
in Jackson County, Missouri
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Cooling Degree Days in Jackson County
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BAMS Annual
State of the
Climate Reports
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams
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nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices
America’s Climate Choices