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CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR BRAZIL

Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque CavalcantiIracema Fonseca de Albuquerque CavalcantiCPTEC/INPE/MCTI

One of the lead authors chapter 14 AR5 WG1 AR5One of the lead –authors chapter 14- AR5 - WG1-AR5

AR5- WG1-Chapter 14- Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate ChangeRelevance for Future Regional Climate Change

Monsoon Systems: South American Monsoon System (SAMS)

Tropical Phenomena: South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)

Additional phenomena of relevance: Pacific South America (PSA)

Future Climate Regional Change:Future Climate Regional Change:

Central America and Caribbean

South America

T t d P i it ti P j ti f B ilTemperature and Precipitation Projections for Brazil

RCPs scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways)

RCP 8.5 is characterized by i i h

They are based on assumptions about economic activity, energy sources, population growth and other socio-

i f t increasing greenhouse gas emissions over time, representative of scenarios in

economic factors

RCP 2.6 : Radiative forcing increases up to +3.1 W/m2 by the middle of 21st century

representative of scenarios in the literature that lead to high greenhouse gas concentration y

and reduce to 2.6 W/m2 in 2100.

RCP 4 5 is a stabilization

g glevels.

In order to reach such radiative forcing levels, greenhouse gas emissions

RCP 4.5 is a stabilization scenario in which total radiative forcing is t bili d h tl ftgreenhouse gas emissions

(and indirectly emissions of air pollutants) are reduced s bstantiall o er time

stabilized shortly after 2100.

substantially, over time

Temperature changes (2081-2100)- (1986-2005) DJF RCP 8 5

RCP 2.6

RCP 8.5

RCP 4.5C 6

4.0

1 0

2.0

1.0

Temperature changes (2081-2100)- (1986-2005) JJA

RCP 8.5RCP 4.5

RCP 2.6

5.0

1.5 2.0

Annual Precipitation change in South Americaunder different scenarios (2081-2100)- (1986-2005)under different scenarios (2081 2100) (1986 2005)

RCP 8.5

RCP 2.6RCP 4.5

Precipitation change in South America October to March

RCP 4 5

RCP 8.5(2081-2100)- (1986-2005)

RCP 2.6RCP 4.5

Precipitation change in South America April to September

RCP 4 5

RCP 8.5(2081-2100)- (1986-2005)

RCP 4.5

RCP 2.6

-10 to -20% Amazonia NE

+10 to +20% Southern Brazil+10 to +20% Southern Brazil

Precipitation change from regional models and scenario A1B (CMIP3) [(2071 2100) (1961 1990)]and scenario A1B (CMIP3) [(2071-2100)- (1961-1990)]

Precipitation change Amazonia (2081-2100)- (1986-2005) RCP 2 6

DJF SON JJA MAM RCP 2.6

RCP 8.5-10 to -30% north -10 to -30% eastern AMA and -40% NE

Time series of precipitation change over Amazonia(SON)(SON)

Time series of temperature change over South America (JJA)

Dry extremes near future : (2016-2035)- (1986-2005)

April to September October- March

Increase in extremes in the South America Monsoon System

Changes in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone

Intensification of the southern center

Changes in the Pacific South America pattern due to changes in Pacific SST : influences over southeastern SAchanges in Pacific SST : influences over southeastern SA

MAIN CONCLUSIONS AR5 WG1 South America(high confidence on model results)(high confidence on model results)Temperature increase over the whole continent, highest valuessouthern Amazoniasout e a o a

Increase of precipitation extremes (wet and dry) over the wholecontinentcontinent

Precipitation increase over southeastern South America (includesouthern Brazil and La Plata basin)southern Brazil and La Plata basin)

Precipitation increase over northwestern South America (includet t f A i )extreme west of Amazonia)

Precipitation increase over extreme southern Chile

Precipitation decrease eastern Amazonia and northern South America

Precipitation decrease central Chile

www.climatechange2013.orgwww.climatechange2013.orgFurther InformationFurther Information

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© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude