climate change
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Climate ChangeClimate ChangeGas emissions
The Science, Impact and Solutions에르뎀200900896
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§ Climate Change: The Science, Impacts and SolutionsEarth scan Publications Ltd. | 2009 | ISBN: 1844076482, 1844077861 | 370 pages |
§ Facts§ Greenhouse Effect§ Climate Change§ Examples of Climate Change§ Arctic Climate Impact§ Uncertainty§ Sea Level Rise, Global Warming§ Impacts on Sectors§ Emissions§ Growth in Technology, Taxes§ Improving Energy Efficiency§ What do we have to do?
Facts
Today, global climate change is a fact. The climate has changed visibly, tangibly, measurably.
An additional increase in average temperatures is not only possible, but very probable,
While human intervention in the natural climate system plays an important, if not decisive role.
Facts
The World Meteorological Organization declared that 2005 and 1998 were the two
warmest years on record.
Since the twentieth century global average surface temperature has risen by 0.18 to 0.74C
And temperature has risen 0.13 to 0.3 C per decade.
Greenhouse Effect
Carbon DioxideOxides of Nitrogen
Methane Waste Gases due to industry
Land Clearing, cropping, irrigation
Farm Animals
Climate Change
Orbit VariationsOn time scales of thousand years
Volcanic Eruptions
Matter of Days or weeks
Gas EmissionsOn a time scale of decades to a century
1.4°C - 5.8°C Warmer in 2100 than 1990
If we stop emitting gases tomorrow the increase of CO2 will persist for centuries
9cm – 88cm Sea level rise in 2100
Examples of Climate Change
Examples ofClimate Change
Slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional
Circulation
Disappearance of mountain glaciers
Melting of Greenland or
West Antarctic ice sheetsDisappearance
of Arctic sea ice
Desertification of Sahel or the Amazon
Irreversible trends of
El Nino, Southern, North Atlantic, Arctic, Antarctic
Arctic Climate Impact
1. The Arctic climate is now warming rapidly and much larger changes are expected.
2. Arctic warming and its consequences have worldwide implications.
3. Arctic vegetation zones are projected to shift, bringing wide-ranging impacts.
4. Animal species’ diversity, ranges and distribution will change.
5. Many coastal communities and facilities face increasing exposure to storms.
Arctic Climate Impact
6. Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport and access to resources.
7. Thawing ground will disrupt transportation, buildings, and other infrastructure.
8. Indigenous communities are facing major economic and cultural impacts.
9. Elevated ultraviolet radiation levels [a combined effect of global warming and stratospheric ozone depletion]will affect people, plants, and animals.
10. Multiple influences interact to cause impacts to people and ecosystem
Uncertainty
Estimated Variable
Process Applied
Range of Uncertainty
GH Gas Concentrations
GH Gas Emissions
Global Climate Change
Regional Climate Change
Sectoral Impact
Carbon Cycle Model
Climate Model
Downscaling Method
SectoralImpact models
Sea Level Rise, Global Warming
Case Warming to 2100 (°C) Sea Level Rise to 2100 (cm)
IPCC 2001 full range 1.4 to 5.8 9 to 88
IPCC 2007 low case 1.1 to 2.9 18 to 38
IPCC A1F1 high case 2.4 to 6.4 26 to 59
Rahmstorf 2007 1.4 to 5.8 50 to 140
Jim Hansen NOAA Up to 5m
Changes in Extreme EventsChanges in Phenomenon Confidence in
Observed Changes(post- 1960
Confidence in Projected
Changes (during 21st century)
Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all land areas
Very likely Virtually certain
Higher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days and frost days over nearly all land areas
Very likely Virtually certain
Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land areas
Very likely Virtually certain
Intense precipitation events (frequency or proportion of total rainfall)
Likely Very likely
Increased risk of drought in mid latitude continental areas
Likely Likely
Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities and rainfall with lower central pressures
Likely in some regions
Likely
Extreme extra tropical storms increased frequency/ intensity and pole wards shifts
Likely Likely
Coastal storm surges and flooding more severe(due to both higher mean sea level and more intense
storms)
Very likely due to sealevel rise last century
Virtually certain
Impacts and Adaptations by SectorSector Potential impact Potential adaptation Comments
Hydrology and w
ater resources
Increased floods and droughts, loss of snowpack and glaciers;; regional and seasonal water deficits, saline intrusion in some island and coastal aquifers
Flood plain zoning, review levees and dam safety, management pricing, conservation, recycling, desalinization plants
Major dams, water diversions, irrigation projects possible but expensive and controversial with further climate changes creating design problems
Land based ecosystem
s
Biodiversity loss inbounded areas including mountains, increased fire risk, weed invasion, salinization
Landscape management,Eco corridors, fire protection, weed control, management
Increased management of natural ecosystemswith increasing species and system losses
Aquaticecosystem
s
Salinization of coastal aquifers and wetlands, low river flows eutrophication
Barriers to saltwater intrusion, increase environmental flows, reduce nutrients
Impacts will compound problems from increased population and water demand
Impacts and Adaptations by SectorSector
Potential impact Potential adaptation Comments
CoastalEcosystem
s
Coral bleaching, more toxic algal blooms, acidification
Reduce other stresses, seed coral, reduce nutrient inflows
Population growth and pollution are other vital factors
Agriculture,grazing and forestry
Increased drought and fire risk, effects on global markets, spread of pests and diseases, increased soil erosion, initial benefit from increased CO2 offset by climate change
Management and policy changes, fire prevention, seasonal forecasts, market planning, niche crops, carbon trading, exclusion spraying, land management, plant breeding, changed farm practices, change crop or industry
Increased management of natural ecosystemswith increasing species and system losses
Aquaticecosystem
s
Salinization of coastal aquifers and wetlands, low river flows eutrophication
Barriers to saltwater intrusion, increase environmental flows, reduce nutrients
Impacts will compound problems from increased population and water demand
Impacts and Adaptations by SectorSector
Potential impact Potential adaptation Comments
Horticulture Reduced winter chill for fruiting, pests and diseased, drought
Change management, relocate, chemical sprays
Opportunities for tropical fruits at higher latitudes
Fisheries Changes recruitment,
nutrient suppliesresearch, monitoring, management
Not well understood
ElectricityIndustry
Need increased peak capacity for air conditioning,drought threatens cooling water
Building design, shade, solar powered air conditioning, renewable power with storage
Efficiency also affected, trend to renewables creates opportunities changing price structure
Tourism
Increased heat index, loss of some attractions. Snow resorts, coral reefs, coastal wetlands
Cool tropical resorts, expand cooler resorts, alternative industries or relocate people
Losses and gains
Insurance
Increased exposure to natural hazards’
Revised buildings codes, rate incentives ,zoning, reduced cover
This is happening now, may deter unwise developments
Human
health
Expansion of range of vector borne diseases,water supply issues injuries from extreme events
Quarantine, eradication,control, window screens, medication, repellents, improve medical services, evacuation, refuges
Wealthy countries can cope, others may suffer
Emissions
Growth in Technology, Taxes2003 2007 2017
estimateSolar
photovoltaic620MW 2821MW 23,000
Wind power 8000MW 20,060 MW 76,000biofuels 7 billion
gallons15.6 billion gallons
46 billiongallons
Improving Energy Efficiency§ Increasing fuel economy in cars, including hybrid, fully electric and compressed air cars,
ØReducing reliance on cars, with better public transport, bike paths and urban design,
ØBuilding or retrofitting more efficient buildings with better use of insulation, shade, cogeneration plants, and automatic controls,
Ø Increasing power plant efficiency,
Improving Energy Efficiency§ Decreasing carbon emissions from electricity and fuels by using alternatives such as:
ØSubstitution of natural gas for coal and oil,ØWind generated electricity,ØSolar photovoltaic, solar thermal power,ØGeothermal power,ØWave and tidal power,ØEnergy storage from renewables by various means including pumped hydro, hydrogen generation, efficient batteries, electrolyte generation, fuel cells and compressed air.
Improving Energy EfficiencyØSecond generation biofuels avoiding land clearing and competition with food production,
ØCarbon capture and sequestration from power plants,
ØCarbon capture and sequestration from synthetic fuel plants,
ØNuclear power with all safeguards,§ Increasing the effectiveness of natural sinks by:
Ø Improving forest management, including plantations and on-farm forestry,
Ø Improving management of agricultural soils,
What do we have to do?
§ Rapid deployment of wind turbines, and solar photovoltaic especially in Europe and parts of the United States and Asia
§ Large scale solar thermal power installations with energy storage
§ Rapid elimination of industrial by product gases§ Efficient hybrid gasoline/electric, low-pollution diesel and compressed air automobiles
§ Advances in fuel cell technology§ Limited demonstration of underground storage or sequestration of carbon dioxide
§ Efficient public transport, bicycle and pedestrian friendly cities.
What do we have to do?
§ Biofuels can be substituted for fossil fuels to generate heat and electricity
§ Gaseous or liquid biofuels such as ethanol can substitute for oil in transportation
§ Biomass, in the form of timber or compressed fibrous sheeting can replace greenhouse intensive construction materials such as concrete, steel or aluminum.
§ Carbon can be sequestered in the ground by suitable cultivation techniques or by burying charcoal generated in pyrolysis
§ Growing Forests§ Subsidies for not users taxes and tariffs for users
Q&A
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