CLIMATE CHANGE,

A lot of hot air or Creation in Crisis

John Houghton

Exeter Churches

4 March 2011

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The Underlying Science of Global Warming

has been known forover two hundred years

The underlying physics of global warming(known for 200 years)

Solar radiation

Long-wave radiation

The Greenhouse Effectjp10

Changes in CO2 over 10,000 yearsfrom ice-cores (colored symbols) and atmospheric samples (red

line)

From Figure SPM-1, Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report

Mean temperature change

1950’s to 2000’s

Global average temperature change from 1850

from The Climate Diagnosis 2009

Observed global average temperature for each decade

from 1850 to 2009 relative to 1961-90 - also showing uncertainty ranges

from UK Met Office, Hadley Centre

Changes in Global Mean Temperature in 20th century • as observed (black) • as simulated by ensemble of models (red & blue)– with natural and anthropogenic forcings (a) - with natural forcings only (b)

Reconstructed, observed and future warming projections

from The Climate Diagnosis 2009

Some main impacts of climate change

• More intense heat waves

• Sea level rise

• More intense hydrological cycle

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European Heatwave 2003 - JJA temp anomaly compared with average 1961-90

From Technical Summary , IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).

Refugee family escaping from floods in Bangladesh

More rain for some; less rain for othersJun-Jul-Aug changes by 2090s

Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes

Precipitation decreases likely in most subtropical land regionsFrom Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report

Floods and Droughts - the most damaging of world disasters

On average they cause:

• more deaths• more misery• more economic loss

than any other disasters

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Global Warming & Climate Change in 21st Century

• Rise in global average temperature > 2 ºC

• Rise in average sea level for many centuries

• More extreme heat waves, floods and droughts

• Likely Greenland ice cap will begin to melt down (complete melt down gives 7m of sea level rise)

• Poor nations worst affected

• Many millions of environmental refugees

• Loss of millions of species

How sure are we about Climate Change?

20 Years of IPCC WG1

• Assessment by hundreds of scientists from many countries

• No preconceived agenda

• Under honest & balanced discipline of science

• Cautious conclusions

• Tough scrutiny at intergovernmental meetings

<www.ipcc.ch>

What can we do aboutGlobal Warming?

International Action to reduce emissions

began in 1992

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UN FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGERio de Janeiro : June 1992

ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE

The Convention’s ultimate objective

.... is to achieve, .… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere … the level to be chosen should enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

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Copenhagen Diagnosis

Global emissions continue to rise

6º5º4º3º2º1º

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Stabilization Target of 2ºC above preindustrial

• First proposed by EU Council in 1996

• Broadly consensus for 2 deg at Copenhagen 2009

What Action?

• Buildings: increased energy efficiency - e.g. heat pumps

• Electricity: more efficient & carbon free generation & use

• Agriculture: increase carbon capture & decrease allgreenhouse gas emissions

• Transport: move to electric vehicles

• Halt deforestation

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Electricity generation & use

• Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions

• More Combined Heat and Power (CHP)

• More efficient appliances

• Buy GREEN electricity

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Renewable Energy Technologies

• Hydro• Solar Thermal & PV Electricity • Biomass Crops & Biofuels• Biomass Waste• Wind (On & Offshore)• Tidal (Lagoons & Streams) & Wave• Geothermal

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16 MW, 300 acre, Sun-Edison, solar farm in N Carolina USA

Energy from Biomass & Waste

• FROM Waste (domestic & agricultural) & Biocrops

• TO Power stations, Biogas & Biofuels

• Local energy very valuable in rural areas

• Energy from agricultural & forestry wastes could meet at least 10 % of the World’s total energy needs.

from World Energy Outlook, IEA, 2006 Table 14.6

Can we achieve the 2 degree target?

How long have we got?

Waymarks for global energy emissions road map to 2050

From Houghton, Global Warming, the Complete Briefing, 4th ed. CUP. 2009

Investment in Energy to 2050

• Under business-as usual ~ 6% of world GDP

• With emissions reductions under 2 deg target ~ extra 1% of world GDP

• Extra investment more than recovered through savings on fuel

• Further subsidiary benefits to be realized

from IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010

The International Challenge

per Capita CO2e Emissions in 2004

from IPCC AR4, WGIII, 2007

Climate Change: the Moral Imperative

• Growth of wealth in rich world through cheap coal, oil, gas

• No realization of damage caused, especially to poor countries

• Rich countries need to reduce damage & assist poor countries develop sustainably

Lag in the system due to time taken for oceans to warm,

means

A lot of climate change already built in

- yet to be realized

The fierce urgency of NOW

Haven’t we first to tackle World Poverty, then Climate Change?

NO, because unless

we tackle Climate Change now,the plight of many of the

poorest will be enormously worse

Hasn’t the Recession to have top priority, then Climate

Change?

NO, because there is much benefit

in tackling both together

The Christian Imperative

• Care for the Earth

• Care for the poor

• Stewardship

Stewardship means Sharing

Are we good at Sharing?

• in our families - YES

• in our communities - YES

• in our national social programs - YES

• internationally with poorer nations - NO

add Aid and Trade together,net flow of wealth from poor to rich

WE HAVE TO LEARN TO SHARE

A Particular Challenge

Rural Areas in Developing World need:

• Clean Water

• Sanitation

• Better farming methods

• Sustainable Energy

From everyone who has been given much,

much will be demanded

Luke 12 v 48

God is Creator

Science is God’s science

God is our Partner in Caring for

the Whole of Creation

THE HOPE SET BEFORE US

• Unparalleled environmental crises• God-given responsibilities for the Earth

& for the poor

• Stewardship is partnership with God

• Church should seize the opportunity - world is desperate for leadership

Joseph to his brothers Genesis 45, 5-7

“For two years now there has been famine in the land

and for the next five years there will not be ploughing or reaping.

Do not be…angry with yourselves for selling me here…

God sent me ahead of you…to save lives by a great deliverance.”

Pharoah & Joseph had

7 YEARSSo have we

2016

The Climate Crisis

“When written in Chinese the word crisis

is composed of two characters, one represents danger

and the other opportunity”

John F Kennedy

Celtic cross

CelticCross

Briefing Paper no 14,- 18 pages in pdf- can be downloaded

from web site

John Ray Initiative www.jri.org.uk