climate change adaptation and risk management in developing countries john furlow us agency for...
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Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management in Developing Countries
John FurlowUS Agency for International Development
Glen Gerberg Weather and Climate Summit
Breckenridge 2012
What Is USAID?
USAID at a glance
• An independent federal agency under the general policy guidance of the US Secretary of State
• Operating in 100 countries with over 75 field offices• $ billions invested annually in:
• Water and sanitation• Agriculture• Democracy & governance• Economic growth & trade• Environment
• Education & training • Health• Humanitarian assistance
USAID’s Climate Change Program
Overall Goal: Assist countries as they develop in ways that reduce emissions while building resilience to climate change impacts
Mitigation:Clean Energy: 23 countries, 11 Regions/BureausReducing net GHG emissions by spurring the deployment of clean energy technologies. Priority areas: energy efficiency, low-carbon energy, clean transport, and energy sector reforms.
Sustainable Landscapes: 14 Countries, 5 Regions/BureausReducing net greenhouse gas emissions from the land use sector (e.g., tropical forest destruction and degradation) and augmenting sequestration of carbon in landscapes, including building capacity to measure, report, and verify emissions reductions.
Adaptation: 19 Countries, 12 Regions/Bureaus Building capacity in vulnerable countries and communities to prepare for, reduce, or cope with negative impacts of climate change; Designing resilience into development assistance.
Adaptation portfolio 2011
Africa:Ethiopia
Kenya
Malawi
Mali
Mozambique
Rwanda
Senegal
Tanzania
Uganda
East Africa Regional
Southern Africa Regional
West Africa Regional
Cambodia
Indonesia
Philippines
Timor-Leste
Vietnam
Bangladesh
India
Maldives
Nepal
Regional Mission-Asia (RDM/A)
Asia:Dominican Republic
Guatemala
Jamaica
Peru
Barbados and Eastern Caribbean
South America Regional
Latin America & Carib:
23 countries$139 million in total
Adapting to Climate Change Impacts in Developing Countries
Challenges to Adaptation in Developing Countries
• Underlying development challenges– Education– Governance– Health– Infrastructure
• Poor historical records• Poor current weather data• GCM uncertainty• Poorly adapted to current
conditions • Numerous pressing needs
What Is Adaptation?
• IPCC: adaptation is “Adjustment in systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects. . .” – Process of examining and understanding vulnerabilities – Responding in some way to reduce vulnerability, build resilience
Why Adapt to Climate Change?
• Developing country economies concentrated in climate sensitive sectors
• ~70% of developing country populations derive income from agriculture
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Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP
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World Bank
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rainfall variation around the mean
GDP growth
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Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP
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Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP
World Bank
Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDPEthiopia: Rainfall, Ag GDP, GDP
Weather, Climate, and Livelihoods
Alerts for East Africa
Major crisis continues; response inadequate 06/07/2011
Conditions worsen in Eastern Horn 05/06/2011
Forecasts poor, crisis likely to worsen 03/15/2011
Poor Oct-Dec rainfall likely in East Africa11/02/2010
Food security expected to deteriorate further 12/30/2009
Poor start of kiremt season in Ethiopia 08/13/2009
Forecast poor rains to deepen food insecurity 10/23/2008
High and rising food prices continue 08/12/2008
Food aid pipeline faces serious shortfalls 06/23/2008
Forecasts suggest increased food insecurity 03/31/2008
Development Priority
High Climate Risk
High O
ppor
tunit
y for
Succe
ss
Making the Most of Adaptation Investment
Climate Stress in the Development Context
Economic drivers / Social development objectives: Tourism, Agriculture, Manufacturing
Inputs or essential conditions:Natural environment, fresh water, energy, transport systems, labor, safety, governance, policy, financing, public awareness
Stressors (climate, non-climate):Changes in rainfall, temperature, SLR, corruption, pollution
Interventions:Information, capacity building, public awareness, freshwater
management, coastal/marine management
Pro
gram
des
ign
Resilience im
proved
Understanding climate vulnerability
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Vulnerability: determined by exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity
•Exposure: Is an asset out in the elements?– Flooding, drought, erosion,
sedimentation– Agriculture is exposed, highly
dependent on weather/climate
•Sensitivity: Does exposure matter?– Are crops suitable to a range of temperatures and precipitation profiles?
•Adaptive Capacity: Can you respond?
– Ag sensitivity can be reduced with irrigation, drainage, crop selection– Crop and economic diversification can reduce damages – Insurance spreads risk
Stresses Vulnerability factors
Exposure
What• Infrastruct.• Populations• Ecosystms
Where• Coastal zone• Estuaries
Adaptive capacity
• EWS• Governance• Multiple
sources• Skilled
decision-makers
• Redundant systems
Sensitivity
• Quality of infrastruct.
• Type of water source
• Housing• Health status
Potential impacts
Response options
• Damaged infrastructure
• Lost productivity • Illness • Food insecurity
Non Climate•Poor
infrastructure, maintenance•Lack of
regulation•Pollution
Climate•Increasing
temps•Rainfall
variability
• Seasonal weather forecasts• Guidance and awareness• Restore watersheds
• Redundant infrastructure• Zoning, flexible land use• Increase water storage
Objective: Health, productivity, food
Inputs: Infrastructure, water, ecosystems, management, information, climate, policy
Climate Service Partnership
Climate Service Partnership
Growing consensus that providing climate information can help decision making
International Conference on Climate Services:
• NOAA, UK Met, German Climate Service, WMO, Global Framework for Climate Services, World Bank, USAID
Principles:
• Tailored to decision needs• Focus on key development sectors• Open access to data
USAID/West Africa: Climate Adaptation Support Service for regional development
Value Chain of Climate Information•Identify User Needs
•Translate Information for users•Deliver Information
•Apply Information for decision making•Robust Decisions
IRI – IFRC Map Room:http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.IFRC/.Forecasts/
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SERVIR: Tools to Assist Development
Vulnerability and Adaptation Training Workshop
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SERVIR: Disaster Response
Climate Mapper Tool
Climate Mapper Continued
Rural Radio: RANET
Applying Weather and Climate information: Index Insurance
Four main “buckets” for risk management
Risk reduction
Risk retention
Risk transfer
Post-disaster assistance
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Frequent, less severe events
Rare, very severe events
Losses
Pro
bab
ilit
y
Risk reduction Insurance Aid/ReliefRetained
Irrigation Water use efficiency Drought resistant varieties Training on climate change Access to forecasts Reforestation Community monitoring systems Grain storage, seed banks
Managing Climate Risks: Glacier Lake Outburst Floods
Glacier Lake Hazards in Nepal
• Tourism: 50% of Nepal’s GDP• Region accounts for 5% of arrivals
Some Statistics on our expedition:• 35 scientists, development
practitioners, journalists• ~25 porters and guides• ~12 vertical miles walked• ~75 linear miles walked• 18 days on trail
