climate change adaptation in urban regeneration projects

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CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND

EIA IN UK URBAN REGENERATION

PROJECTS

The Future of EIA

Chiko Ncube

School of Built Environment

Oxford Brookes University

September, 2011

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Abstract

Climate Change is one of the defining global challenges of our age and compelling evidence

shows that substantial changes to our climate are already unavoidable. This research is

therefore founded on the key message that action towards the adaptation of climate change is

vital and urgent.

It examines the important role of planning in reducing the vulnerability of urban regions

through the Environmental Impact Assessment process (EIA). This is done primarily by

reviewing Environmental Statements for urban regeneration projects, as well as through

responses to questionnaires and emails and an in-depth literature study. It aims to show if and

how some of the UK‟s high profile and controversial urban regeneration projects have

considered climate change adaptation and what role EIA played in this incorporation.

The findings show that all reviewed projects considered the adaptation of climate change to

varying degrees. It is considered in the flooding assessment for all projects and the proposal

for sustainable urban drainage strategies was also found to be in all statements. Despite this,

clear consideration in other impact chapters such as Landscape and Ecology was lacking.

Long term baselines for projects were hardly used in many projects but when used, they were

found in CO2 related impact chapters such as traffic and air quality. The smaller scaled urban

regeneration projects showed a clear gap in holistically approaching the issues of climate

change by frequently mentioning it under the loose umbrella of „sustainable development‟.

The larger projects such as the Olympic Village and Bilston Urban Village showed a holistic

approach and purposefully integrated it in the earlier stages of the EIA, allowing for the

predicted impacts to influence the design and decision making. Furthermore, the responses

from the questionnaires and emails showed that the extent to which climate change

considerations are factored in is difficult to predict due to many variables such as the type of

development, funding and different economic and political conditions. The results also

showed that although there was a sound agreement on the integration of climate change

adaptation in EIA, however it was found that many adaptation measures were often put aside

for other planning goals.

With the European Commission currently working towards incorporating climate change

considerations in the EIA directive and the UK aiming to publish its first National Adaptation

programme this year, this research comes at a very crucial time.

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List of Contents

Table of Contents

Abstract 3

List of Contents 4

List of Tables, Figures and Boxes 6

Abbreviations 7

Acknowledgments 8

Chapter One: Introduction 10

1.1 The importance of EIA and climate change adaptation 11

1.2 Urban Regeneration 12

1.3 Research Questions 13

1.4 Methodology 13

1.5 Structure and layout 14

Chapter Two: Literature review 15

2.1 EIA and Policy, Plans and Programmes 16

2.1.1 Global Level 16

2.1.2 European Level 17

2.1.3 National Level 18

2.1.4 Progress towards UK National Adaptation Programme 20

2.2 Climate Change 21

2.3 Climate Change in the UK 23

2.4 Climate Change Adaptation 25

2.5 Climate Change adaptation and urban areas 26

2.6 EIA and Climate Change Adaptation 27

Chapter Three: Methodology 31

3.1 ES review (7/10 projects) 33

3.2 EIA review (4/11 projects) 34

3.3 Questionnaires and emails 35

Chapter Four: Presentation of findings 37

4.1 First Review: Environmental Statement 33

4.2 Second Review: EIA Process 45

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4.2.1 Ashton Green 45

4.2.2 Bilston Urban Village 47

4.2.3 Brent Cricklewood 51

4.2.4 Olympics

Chapter Five: Analysis 59

5.1 Summary analysis of in-depth review projects 61

5.2 Internal factors 64

5.3 External factors 66

Chapter Six: Conclusion 69

6.1 Areas of further research 71

Appendices 72

References 86

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List of Figures

Figure 1: UKCIP (09) Projected changes to mean precipitation for the 2080s 24

Figure 2: Change in observed temperature over Western Europe over a 200-year

period (MET office, Adapting institutes)

25

Figure 3: Review of Climate change mitigation in environmental statements 29

Figure 4: Review of Climate change mitigation in environmental statement, significant

variation in sectors

29

Figure 5: Locations of selected projects 33

Figure 6: Proposed comprehensive drainage strategy Bilston Village 47

Figure 7 Showing UKCIP risk framework tool (UKCIP, 2011) 50

Figure 8: Showing phases of London 2012 programme 57

Figure 9: Showing Olympic legacy Phase and Climate Change impacts 58

Figure 10: Showing potential entry points for Climate Change consideration 60

Figure 11: Showing evolution of adaptation Climate Change 69

List of Boxes

Box 1: Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC) 20

Box 2: Green Infrastructure typologies 35

Box 3: Blue Infrastructure typologies 35

Box 4: Liverpool Waters 38

Box 5: Carlyon Bay 39

Box 6: Edinburgh Harbour 40

Box 7: Huntsgrove 41

Box 8: Centenary Quay Woolston 42

Box 9: London‟s Sporting Village 43

Box 10: Sowerby Bridge Copley Valley 44

Box 11: London Plan 52

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List of Tables

Table 1: Showing summary for four in-depth review projects 61

Abbreviations

CC: Climate Change

CCA: Climate Change Adaptation

EA: Environment Agency

EIA: Environmental Impact Assessment

ES: Environmental Statement

EU: European Union

EC: European Commission

FRA: Flood Risk Assessment

GHG: Greenhouse Gas

LA: Local Authority

PPP: Plans, Policies and Programmes

SEA: Strategic Environmental Assessment

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Acknowledgments

I would like to thank God for His Grace and Excellence that has enabled me to complete this

research. My gratitude goes out to my family (Dad, Mum and the other 6) in Zimbabwe for

their unwavering support and consistent love, as well as my IFCS family here (Dr Taiwo,

Pastor Ade and Jessie Williams, Dr Abiose, IFCS Central, Leaders and Members). I would

also like to thank Dr Elizabeth Wilson for her wonderful guidance and for making my

research possible.

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“Adapt or perish, now as ever, is nature‟s inexorable imperative.”

H.G. Wells (1866-1946)

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Chapter One: Introduction

Climate Change (CC) remains the world‟s greatest environmental, political, social and

economic challenge. For the past century, Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been

accumulating in the atmosphere, primarily as a result of burning fossils fuels and changes in

land use. Recent decades have shown unequivocal evidence that CC is happening and its

impacts are already observable. According to the Committee on Climate Change (CCC,

2011), the first decade of the twenty-first century was the warmest since instrumental records

began with an increase of 0.8oC in global average temperatures. It is therefore widely

acknowledged that the impacts of CC are expected to become more severe as changes in the

climate intensify in the near future.

These changes have not only altered the nature of climate risks to which societies have long

been exposed to, but have introduced the possibility of future prospective changes to climate

which dwell outside the experience of human history (Hulme et al, 2010). A new political

and cultural dynamic has begun, one which challenges all levels of governance to re-think

and re-shape the way in which society functions. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) in

spatial planning is particularly relevant in this context.

This research grew out of an interest in EIA and climate change, a concern over the limited

attention to incorporating and understanding how to address climate change adaptation

(CCA) in EIA, and a resulting avidity to discover how new urban developments are

responding to CC. Accordingly, the overall aim of this research is to explore how CCA is

being addressed in the EIA process and practice in current urban regeneration projects. CC is

a global problem however the author has chosen the United Kingdom as the region of

investigation for this research.

The term climate change adaptation is relatively new in the UK and continues to rise on the

agendas of researchers, practitioners and decision makers. The Climate-Knowledge and

Innovation Community (2011) additionally acknowledges that CCA will be an important

activity under the UK Government‟s localism, decentralisation and Big Society agenda. In

the future the UK will experience warmer and wetter winters and hotter and drier summers

(DEFRA, 2009). The incidence of extreme weather events will increase and are likely to

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compound the high cost of weather related disruption. During the floods in summer 2007, 13

people lost their lives and around 48,000 homes and 7,000 businesses were flooded. The

floods caused more than £3 billion of insure damage and the total disruption to the economy

was far greater than anticipated (The Royal Commission, 2010). There are low-regret actions

that could be taken now to reduce the UK‟s vulnerability; however evidence of such

measures is limited (CCC, 2011). Climate risks also appear not to be fully incorporated into

some major strategic decisions especially with regards to land use planning.

The UK‟s vulnerability to CC is increasing and efforts towards adapting to CC are

continually put aside as a result of patterns of development in some areas and demographic

trends. The Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC) studied nine Local Authorities (LA) and

found that since 2001:

In almost all of the nine English local authorities studied, development in areas of

flood risk had increased, and in four of them the rate of development was higher than

across the locality as a whole.

Three of the four coastal authorities saw an increase in development in areas of

eroding coastline, and in two of them the rate of development on unprotected

coastline was higher than across the authority as a whole.

The area of hard surfacing increased in five of the six urban authorities studied,

primarily at the expense of urban green space, which declined in all six. This is likely

to exacerbate surface water flooding risk and the urban heat island effect.

(CCC, 2011)

This research investigates the drivers towards the consideration of CCA in urban projects

despite these pressures and discusses the possible ways forward in building project resilience

through EIA.

1.1 The importance of EIA and Climate change adaptation

Planning in a regime where up to a 60 centimetre increase in sea level during the next 100

years is possible, poses enormous uncertainty. Dealing with this uncertainty and adapting to

the expected changes is an important role that should be played by the planning system.

However it is still seen that CC is perceived as a distant phenomenon by planners and

adaptation needs are „backstaged‟ by other planning goals. Effective and strategic planning

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and management could lead to huge financial savings and key reduction in place and society

vulnerability. In order to achieve this, the discipline and practice of planning can deploy tools

such as impact assessment, climate risk assessment, futures thinking and the ecosystem

approach (Wilson et al., 2010).

The EIA process has been recognised by organisations such as the EC and The Institute of

Environmental Management and Assessment (IEMA) as a potential vehicle for CCA and a

recognised aid to decision making in planning. The purpose of an EIA is to ensure that

development options under consideration are environmentally sound and sustainable, and that

any environmental consequences are recognised early in the project cycle and taken account

in the project design (World Bank, 2009).

Currently, assessing the impacts of CC is not mandatory in EIA, and the tool is viewed by

many practitioners as limited and better at addressing the „acute‟ impacts of development as

opposed to the „chronic‟ impacts of CC (Environment Agency, 2011). Despite this, recent

research and projects have shown that there is ample scope for employing EIA procedures as

a tool to enhance the resilience of projects to the impacts of CC (Agrawala et al., 2010).

Every project is designed with some assumption about the climate in which it will function

(Caricom, 2009) and the conventional way is to assume that the historical climate data and

past experiences is a reliable guide to the future. This assumption is no longer good enough,

thus design criteria must be based on the CC over the life of the project. Many projects for

which EIA‟s are required have relatively long life spans (20 to 100 years) and therefore this

incorporation could facilitate the successful „climate-proofing‟ of projects and serve as a

substantial economic investment. This proves particularly important in urban regions which

are extremely vulnerable due to their high population density, large numbers of poor and

elderly residents, their dense physical structure and their dependencies on often ageing

infrastructure systems.

1.2 Urban regeneration

Over the past 20 years, a bewildering array of government programmes have been launched

in the UK as an attempt to reverse the decline in inner city areas by both improving the

physical structure and more elusively, the economy of those areas (Guardian, 2001).

Examples of well considered regeneration schemes are still few with many projects still cheer

leading an urban renewal of rapid glass towers and asymmetric housing. Elliot Morley, the

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Minister of State in 2005 recognised that the impacts of CC will increasingly affect the

integrity of the built environment unless action is taken now. Buildings have an expected

lifetime of up to 100 years and therefore new buildings need to be able to withstand the

impacts of CC in order to guarantee their long term sustainability (GLA, 2005). Urban

regeneration projects of today house a generation of tomorrow that will undoubtedly

experience the increasing impacts of CC. Research from the United Nations University

(UNU-Institute of Advanced Studies, 2010) has suggested that urban regeneration, a process

through which inner-city areas are renewed, redeveloped or rehabilitated, can address many

of the challenges posed by CC and can also provide essential and effective solutions towards

making our cities more resilient. EIA is particularly relevant in this context as its primary aim

is to enable better decision making within the planning process of a project by examining the

environmental consequences of development actions, in advance (Glasson et al, 2005; 4).

1.3 Research Questions

The following research questions have been constructed to clarify the purpose of this study:

Primary Research Question

1. Can EIA procedures be used as a vehicle for enhancing the resilience of projects to

the impacts of climate change?

In order to help answer the main research question, other more detailed questions are

considered.

Secondary research Questions

2. What progress has the UK made in incorporating climate change adaptation measures

within the context of EIA modalities for long term projects, particularly urban

regeneration projects?

3. What factors explain the limitations to the incorporation of climate change adaptation

in EIA?

4. Can Urban Regeneration address many of the challenges posed by climate change?

1.4 Methodology

In order to answer these questions, this investigation will comprise of a documentation

review of eleven past urban regeneration projects subject to an EA. The ES is used as the

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solitary document for review for the following seven projects: Liverpool Waters, Carlyon

Bay, Edingburgh Harbour, Huntsgrove, Centenary Quay Woolston, Surrey canal London‟s

sporting village and Sowerby Bridge Copley Valley. An in-depth review of the entire EIA

process was done for these selected 4 projects: Ashton Green (Leicester), Bilston Urban

Village (Wolverhampton), Brent Cricklewood and the Olympics (London). These urban

regeneration projects have long term lifetimes and therefore they will be subject to climate

extremes, climate variability and climate change. Questionnaires and emails were sent to

some of the environmental consultants and LAs involved in the selected projects. The

responses given have enabled the author to gain a greater understanding of the EIA process

for that project and the drivers for the consideration of CCA. In addition, a thorough policy

and literature review was carried out to form the background of the review. In this short time

frame of investigation, the dynamic speed of change in this new field of enquiry and action

around CCA is reflected as new guidance documents and regional and local adaptation

programmes were released up to the point of conclusion for the study.

This study is likely to be relevant not only to EIA practitioners, planners and climate change

researchers but also to LAs considering the incorporation of CCA in EIA. The EC is currently

developing guidelines by 2011 to ensure that climate impacts are taken into account in the

EIA Directive. The Commission identifies that CC is not sufficiently considered in EIA, and

the review of the impacts is often limited to CO2 and other GHG emissions (CEC, 2009: 9).

The UK Government is also required by the climate Change Act to lay its adaptation

programme before Parliament „as soon as is reasonably practical‟ following the publication of

the Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA). This study is consequently a useful study and

is significant to the current wider context of how planning and impact assessment can

effectively address the impacts of CC.

1.5 Structure and Layout

Following the Introduction, is the Literature Review in chapter Two, which includes a Plans,

Policy and Programme review relevant to the research topic. The methodology in chapter

Three explains the ES document review and an in-depth EIA process review. Chapter Four

presents details of the selected projects and the measures taken towards adapting to CC.

Chapter Five offers an analysis of the findings and Chapter Six draws to a close the final

discussion and conclusion of this research with recommendations for areas of further

research.

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Chapter Two: Literature Review

This chapter reflects on the debates in literature which are relevant to the author‟s research

questions and purpose of study. The chapter aims to additionally provide a policy and

guidance context which provides conceptual and analytical frameworks relevant to the

research analysis.

Traditionally, cities have been located outside arguments and discussions about the means of

which to address environmental problems. This separation can be traced through the heritage

of the conservation ideal which dominated environmental thoughts between the nineteenth

and the late twentieth century. These thoughts identified themselves with „the rural‟ or

„wilderness‟ which needed to be preserved against the encroachment of the city (Bulkeley et

al, 2003). Despite this concept of the environment as somehow „external‟ to the city, cities

have become places in which key environmental issues have been addressed. They have

seemingly become central to the pursuit of sustainable development. The ICLEI – Local

Governments for Sustainability (International Council for Local Environmental Initiative),

have concluded in recent reports, that cities are at the frontline of adaptation (ICLEI, 2010).

Many countries and regions are pushing to act on adaptation by creating adaptation strategies;

with leading cities such as London, Copenhagen, and Rotterdam conducting assessments of

likely CC impacts for their regions.

The process of building policy frameworks to address CC has evolved increasingly since the

1980s when it emerged as an international political concern. Alongside this evolution, has

been the development of the flexible term „multi-level governance‟. This term follows the

notion that governance is not solely led by the nation-state but that it occurs at multiple tiers

and through multiple institutions. The PEER report (2009) reaches the same conclusion while

also highlighting the need for national involvement through the provision of incentives and

frameworks for action. Similarly the 1st World Congress on Cities and Adaptation to Climate

Change in Bonn in 2010 came to a common understanding that multi-level governance is the

key for building resilient cities. Local Governments have been found to be in the best position

to understand the needs of citizens and to identify the range of stakeholders that need to be

included in a local adaptation strategy. The distinction and division of responsibilities still

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remains largely vague, however there remains an underlying conclusion that different levels

of government have to work together to develop synergies and mainstream the introduction

of adaptation concerns into policy making and implementation (ICLEI, 2010).

Governance is no longer ordered or hierarchical. In the response to global change,

active agents in local communities seek partnerships and coordinated programmes of

action through various levels of government from local to multinational. (O‟Riordan

et al., 2001)

Adaptation will have impacts primarily on a local scale in comparison to mitigation which is

a global effort requiring broad changes of behaviour and technological advancements (World

Bank, 2010). Hence, the UK has significant responsibilities for placing its own adaptation

policies and their success or failure is in the hands of national and local government, UK

business, and communities from major cities to the smallest villages.

This chapter will review relevant publications and information concerning CC and EIA.

2.1 EIA and Policy, Plans and Programmes

Recent publications on CCA from planning policies to practice guidance that have touched

on the topic or attempted to frame and define the appropriate relationship of EIA and CC and

CCA are identified below:

2.1.1 Global Level

Climate change politics at the global level has primarily focused on the development of an

international regime. The core of this regime consists of two multilateral treaties: the 1992

UNFCCC and its 1997 Kyoto Protocol.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 1992

The UNFCCC was drafted and adopted in May 1992, then signed by more than 150 nations

attending the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. Membership of the UNFCCC requires

signatories to launch national strategies for addressing greenhouse gas emissions and

adapting to expected impacts. All participating parties are committed to formulate and

implement measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change. The focus was

primarily on the problem of reducing the potential impacts of CC through the efforts to

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reduce GHG emissions. Adaptation as a second response received relatively little attention in

the international negotiations.

However, in the last several years, the issue of adaptation to CC has moved high on the

UNFCCC negotiating agenda. Various workshops and expert meetings have been facilitated

by the UNFCCC Secretariat with the aim to enhance the knowledge about adaptation CCA.

The last few Conference of parties (COPs) of the UNFCCC has increased attention to the

limitations of dealing with inevitable impacts of CC through adaptation (e.g. through the

creation of specific funds at COP7 2001, the implementation of activities to understand

specific vulnerabilities at COP10 and the COP11 five-year programme of work on impacts,

vulnerability and adaptation for better informed decision making).

Kyoto Protocol, 1997

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the UNFCCC. The major feature

of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialised countries and the

European community for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The distinction between the

Protocol and the Convention is that the Convention encourages parties to stabilize GHG

emissions however the Protocol commits them to do so.

Under Article 10 of the Kyoto Protocol signatories agree to „Formulate, implement, publish

and regularly update national and where appropriate, regional programmes containing

measures to mitigate CC and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change‟

(Wilson et al, 2010). The Kyoto Protocol is designed to assist countries in adapting to the

adverse effects of climate change. It also facilitates the development and deployment of

techniques that can help increase resilience to the impacts of CC (UNFCCC, 2010).

2.1.2 European Level

Due to the regional variability and severity of climate impacts, most adaptation measures will

be taken at national, regional and local level. However these measures can be supported and

strengthened by an integrated and coordinated approach at the EU level (EN, 2009).

Adaptation is expected to be a long and continuous process, and action at the European level

aims to strengthen dialogue with partner countries on adaptation issues and to ensure there

are adequate resources to provide a sustainable and sound economic basis for future

generations. The EU has proposed a Framework for Action on Adaptation which will come

into force in 2012 after the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.

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The EU, in its five-year monitoring reviews of the EIA Directive, concluded that:

„The EIA Directive does not expressly address climate change issues... Any review of the

impacts of climate change is often limited to CO2 and other GHG emissions from

industry and from increases in transport as part of air quality studies or as indirect

impacts...In addition, the effects on global climate, the cumulative effects of an additional

project and adaptation to climate change are not sufficiently considered.‟ (CEC, 2009g,

para. 3.5.4)

ECCP II Working Group 2: Impacts and Adaptation

At European level a comprehensive package of policy measures to reduce GHG emissions

has been initiated through the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP). The goal of

the ECCP is to identify and develop all the necessary elements of an EU strategy to

implement the Kyoto Protocol. The ECCP II Working Group 2 launched in 2005 aims to

integrate adaptation fully into relevant European policy areas, to identify good, cost-effective

practice in the development of adaptation policy. Urban planning and the built environment

are amongst the priority topics for the Group.

EU White paper: Adapting to Climate Change: Towards a European Framework for

action (2009)

In April 2009, the EC presented a White Paper on CCA and the need to support adaptation by

promoting a more strategic approach to ensure timely and effective adaptation measures are

taken and ensuring coherency across different sectors and levels of governance. Additionally

the White Paper detailed the significance of extreme climatic events on infrastructure and the

urgent need to set out a framework to reduce the EU‟s vulnerability to CC impacts and work

towards the post-2012 climate agreement which will subsequently address adaptation (Town

and Country Planning Association, 2009).

2.1.3 National Level

At a national level, the UK historically became known as the „dirty man‟ of Europe for its

lack of action on environmental problems (Bulkeley et al., 2003). However by the second

half of the 1980s, environmental issues were receiving increasing government attention.

Since then, the UK has taken a leading role in the international negotiations with the

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introduction of the Climate Change Act in 2008 as the first country to have a legal binging

framework.

A number of programmes, measures and campaigns have been introduced to culminate the

Climate Change Act such as The UK Climate Change Programme published in 1996, 2000

and 2006 which committed the government to produce guidance on planning and climate

change. The programmes focused primarily on mitigation but also acknowledged the

necessity of adaptation.

In addition to voluntary and market instruments changes to building regulations have been

made to improve the energy efficiency of new housing and build adaptive capacity. However

the Adaptation‟s sub-committee, the independent climate expert for the Government

concludes in its executive summary „How well prepared is the UK for climate change‟ (2010)

that there is still no tangible action on the ground to reduce the UK‟s vulnerability to climate

change.

Climate Change Act, 2008 HM Government

The Act sets out a framework for dealing with adaptation, recognising that the country needs

to be prepared to deal with the changes to the climate that we are already starting to face,

alongside wider economic and demographic trends.

The Act includes:

The requirement to undertake a UK-wide Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA)

and report on it by January 2012.

The requirement to set out a statutory Adaptation Programme following the CCRA

An Adaptation Reporting Power allowing the Government to direct certain

infrastructure companies and regulators to prepare reports on how they are assessing

and acting on the risks and opportunities from a changing climate.

Establishing the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on CC to provide

expert independent advice to Government on CCA.

(DEFRA, 2011)

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2.1.4 Progress towards UK National Adaptation Programme

The UK Government‟s first Adaptation Programme aims to be laid before parliament by the

end of 2012 and the Central Government has progressed towards meeting this need for

adaptation in an incremental way through various published documents.

HM Government (2011); Climate Resilient Infrastructure: Preparing for a Changing

Climate

This document highlights important themes such as: the risk CC presents to infrastructure

interdependencies; adaptation investment; and potential economic opportunities. It is

designed to catalyse action to adapt infrastructure in the energy, ICT, transport and water

sectors (infrastructure networks). This Government-wide document recognises that

adaptation is an issue and aims to be a valuable input to the UK Government‟s first

Adaptation Programme. It emphasises that:

The responses to CC require two kinds of action:

1. Mitigation by reducing GHG to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 as required by the

Climate Change Act (2008).

2. Adaptation to climate change due to past, current and future GHG emissions.

Box 1: Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC)

The ASC has identified five priority areas for immediate action in preparing for climate

change:

1. Taking a strategic approach to land-use planning;

2. Providing national infrastructure;

3. Designing and renovating buildings;

4. Managing natural resources sustainably

5. Effective emergency planning

Source: DEFRA, 2011

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DEFRA (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs)

DEFRA has been pivotal to the UK Government‟s progress to CCA and leads the

government‟s climate change mitigation policy. In March 2010, sixteen Government

Departments published Departmental Adaptation Plans (DAPs) and Carbon Reduction

Delivery Plans. These complementary plans set out policies on CCA and CC mitigation

respectively. DEFRA‟s climate change plan (2010) sets out how it will continue to deal with

the challenges and opportunities of climate change including adaptation with partners such as

Natural England and the Forestry Commission. It has recently been announced that the

Environment Agency (EA) will take on a new, additional role as the Government‟s delivery

body in England for advice on climate adaptation. DEFRA will provide EA with an

additional 2 million pounds per year to deliver climate adaptation advice, an increase on the

current 1.5million per year budget will be paid to UKCIP and the UK‟s regional climate

change partnerships.

UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)

Adapting to CC advice is currently delivered for DEFRA by UKCIP, regional Climate

Change Partnerships and the Local & Regional Adaptation Partnership (LRAP). UKCIP is a

programme which focuses on the challenge of the impacts of unavoidable climate change.

The programme began its work in 1997 when CC was still regarded as an environmental

issue on the fringes of policymaking. UKCIP has created a host of tools and resources to help

organisations prepare for the impacts of a changing climate, such as, UKCIP‟s Adaptation

Wizard, which provides step-by-step guidance for organisations starting the process of

adapting to climate change.

2.2 Climate change

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its Fourth

Assessment Report. This report gave a thorough review of the science and challenges of

climate change. The report played an important role in creating global awareness of the

urgency of a global response to CC (IPCC, 2011). In that same year, the UN Secretary

General called CC „a defining issue of our era‟ and five months later, after a global trip

witnessing the changes firsthand, he referred to it as „the defining challenge of our age‟

(Posas, 2011).

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The International Alliance of Research Universities (IARU) organised a congress regarding

the opportunities and challenges of CC in 2009. The congress clearly defined this global

phenomenon as a challenge that required combined efforts of scientific disciplines; natural

climate science integrated with the social, political and economic sciences in order to be

adequately addressed. There has been substantial progress in understanding how the climate

is changing through improvements on numerous datasets, data analyses, broader geographical

coverage, better understanding of uncertainties and a wider variety of measurements (IPCC,

2007).

Climate change is defined by the IPCC as „a change in the state of the climate that can be

identifies by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for

an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change refers to any change in

climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.‟(IPCC,

2007)

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change refers to climate change as

„a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the

composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability

observed over comparable time periods.(IPCC, 2007)

The difference in the two definitions is in the usage of the term. The IPCC definition is not

limited to human activity alone and therefore the IPCC definition of climate change will be

used in this research.

Since it was established that humans are at least part responsible for climate change and that

some impacts can no longer be avoided, academic and policy attention for adaptation has

increased rapidly. However despite this increase in attention, the science of CCA is still in its

infancy (Klein et al., 2005). According to the IPCC synthesis report on Climate Change

2007:

It is very likely that cold days, cold nights and frosts have become less frequent over

most land areas, while hot days and hot nights have become more frequent.

It is likely that heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas.

It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation events (or proportion of total

rainfall from heavy falls) has increased over most areas.

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It is likely that the incidence of extreme high sea level has increased at a broad range

of sites worldwide since 1975

(IPCC, 2007)

2.3 Climate change in the UK

During the last 40 years, the UK has experienced most of the impacts of climate change. The

winters have grown warmer, with heavier bursts of rain. The summers have been increasingly

drier and hotter causing widespread water shortages. The Thames Barrier was raised on

average three times a year until 2001 and by 2030 it is expected that it will need to be raised

30 times per year (EA, 2011). The Environment Agency highlights that the UK will witness

more extreme events, such as flooding, storms, sea level rise and drought as well as wetter

warmer winters and hotter drier summers.

There are currently 490,000 properties at significant risk of flooding and an additional 35,000

will be at significant risk of flooding by 2035 due to climate change. The total annual river

flow in England and Wales is expected to drop by 10 to 15 per cent by 2050, with 80 per cent

less water in some rivers during the summer months.

23

Figure 1 showing UKCIP (09) Projected changes to annual, winter and summer mean precipitation for the 2080s

24

Figure 2 showing change in observed temperature over Western Europe over a 200-year period (web source)

2.4 Climate Change Adaptation

The IPCC defines Adaptation as “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to

actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits

beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including

anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and

planned adaptation.” (IPCC, 2001)

It is recognised that even the most rigorous and relentless mitigation efforts cannot avoid

further impacts of CC in the next few decades and even if temperature increases can be

limited, which is far from certain, the impacts for some societies and ecosystems will still be

highly significant (Royal Commission, 2010). Klein et al. (2007) recognise that without

mitigation, a magnitude of CC is likely to be reached that will make adaptation impossible for

some natural systems while for most human systems it would involve very high social and

economic costs. It is therefore not a question of whether to mitigate to CC or to adapt to it.

Both CCA and CC mitigation are now essential in reducing the expected impacts of CC.

25

2.5 Climate Change adaptation and Urban areas

Cities are critical in tackling CC by mitigation and adaptation actions. However they are

considered part of the problem as much as they are part of the solution (United Nations

University, 2007). According to UNHABITAT‟s estimations (2007), urban centres are said to

account for more than half of global greenhouse gas emissions and for about two-thirds of

global energy use. The transport sector accounts for 24 per cent of total carbon dioxide

emissions, of which 74 per cent is from road transport. By 2050, the passenger vehicle fleet is

expected to triple in size. The building sector is responsible for 30 per cent of greenhouse gas

emissions globally, with 80-90 per cent emitted during building use and 10-20 per cent

during construction. Established well known researchers David Satterthwaite and David

Dodman (2009) argue that recent IPCC figures on city emissions are inaccurate and that it is

not cities that produce GHGs, but particular activities located there. They conclude on the

urgent point that what is fundamentally important for cities and urban centres is a focus on

adaptation.

Mitigation and adaptation are strongly influenced by urban form and this could result in

possible conflict. For example, at high densities, travel distances are minimised and

community energy schemes become more viable. However, higher densities can intensify

urban heat island effects and reducing urban drainage capacity (Shaw et al., 2007).

Our cities are not currently designed for climate change and therefore planners have an

important role in ensuring that new developments take account of CCA. Acting early may

mean that resilience to CC can be incorporated into the planning and construction process at

relatively low cost (GLA, 2005). Due to compelling socio-economic considerations (i.e.

increasing population), it is highly likely that development may continue in areas vulnerable

to the impacts of climate change

Vulnerability can be defined as “the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to

cope with adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and

variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.” (IPCC

2007)

26

The potential impacts of climate change on urban areas include (ETC/ACC, 2010):

Sea level rise and storm surge flooding,

Fluvial flooding,

Urban drainage flooding,

Building and infrastructure subsidence and landslides,

Wind storm,

Water scarcity , drought and implications for water resources

Heat and health

quality and health,

Resources and amenity

Diseases

In order to make our communities less vulnerable to the CC impacts listed above, solutions

need to be provided through regional and local spatial planning and EA.

Barry Sadler (1996), with support from impact assessment experts and organisations

worldwide, undertook an international study on the effectiveness of EA. Sadler

(p.45)highlights that EA can and does make a difference to decisions taken and that it

supports environmentally favourable action in implementing development. The insightful

document focuses on EA generally and only recognises CC mitigation with no reflection on

CCA which is very likely due to the time in which it was published .The report includes

section on CC, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and EIA. Sadler argues that SEA

can permit more effective assessment of CC implications of PPPs and development decisions

than EIA of projects though he considers that the two used together can be most powerful.

2.6 EIA and Climate Change Adaptation

National governments have invested considerable effort in developing methodologies and

tools to screen their projects for the risks posed by CC (Agrawala et al., 2009). It has been

recently identified that an alternative and complementary approach should be considered by

examining the feasibility of incorporating consideration of CC impacts and adaptation within

existing modalities for project design and implementation such as EIA (Agrawala et al.,

2010).

27

The purpose of EIA is to assess the impacts of a proposed project on the environment before

deciding on whether or not to undertake the project, and to develop and apply measures to

avoid or minimise those impacts as conditions of approval for the project. The World Bank

(1999) subsequently describes the purpose of the EIA process as a need to ensure that project

options under consideration are environmentally sound and sustainable.

In 2010, the revised Overarching Energy National Policy 1 (EN1) was published and put an

emphasis to the need for new infrastructure to consider the impacts of CC through the means

of EIA.

“New energy infrastructure will typically be a long-term investment and will need to remain

operational over many decades; in the face of a changing climate...The ES should set out how

the proposal will take account of the projected impacts of climate change. While not required

by the EIA Directive...” (para. 4.8.5)

IEMA states in their recent CCA and EIA guidance (2010), that EIA must ensure future

developments are resilient and that their environmental impacts do not exacerbate CC effects

on human or natural systems. The EIA Directive requires in Article 3 that EIA should assess

the „climate‟ and in Annex IV it refers to „climatic factors‟ for developments, however

assessing the resilience of a proposed project to the impact of CC is not required.

“The environmental impact assessment shall identify, describe and assess in an appropriate

manner, in the light of each individual case and in accordance with Articles 4 to 11, the

direct and indirect effects of a project on the following factors: human beings, fauna and

flora, soil, water, air, climate and the landscape.” (EIA Directive, Article 3)

“...A description of the aspects of the environment likely to be significantly affected by the

proposed project, including in particular, population, fauna, flora, soil, water, air, climatic

factors, material assets, including the architectural and archaeological heritage, landscape

and the inter-relationship between the above factors.” (EIA Directive, Annex IV)

CC mitigation statutory requirements led to the increase of mitigation efforts in EIA.

Adaptation to CC as a newer concept has been far less included in EAs. A Recent MSc thesis

by Laura Seymour showed that only 31% of recent (2007-2009) environmental statements

did not considered GHG emissions (Fig.3). Figure 4 also shows that 56% of Urban

Developments considered GHG emissions (Seymour, 2010).

28

Figure 3 showing Review of Climate change mitigation in environmental statements

(Seymour, 2010)

Figure 4 showing Review of Climate change mitigation in environmental statement, significant variation in sectors.

(Seymour, 2010)

29

82% of practitioners indicated that climate change adaptation is not effectively considered in

current impact assessment practice, planning processes or project consent processes (Met

Office conference, October 2009)

The increasing mention of the EIA process as a vehicle in recent guidance, plans and

programmes puts emphasis to the viability of EIA procedures to accommodate consideration

of the risks posed by climate change.

EIA primarily identifies the impacts of a proposed project on the environment, rather than

the impact of environmental change (including climate change) on the project itself. It is a

new concept, and therefore it could be argued that EIA might not be an appropriate vehicle to

incorporate adaptation considerations. In some projects however, impacts of CC may have

significant implications on the eventual environmental performance of a project (Agrawala et

al., 2010). This is the case for example in urban regeneration projects, which cover a vast

amount of land and potentially include complex drainage systems and waste storage facilities.

Inadequate consideration of CC impacts, such as sea level rise and changes in extreme

weather events, during project design could lead to unexpected downstream environmental

consequences. In addition with recent flooding events in the UK, this has led to increased

attention to the consideration of CC in FRAs. However the potential impacts of cold and heat

waves or droughts are still poorly incorporated. Wilson et al. (2010) suggests three principal

external reasons why EIA has not systematically addressed climate change; the uncertainty of

CC and the difficulty of making predictions, policy fragmentation and inconsistency and

confusion and conflict between the EIA and CC practitioner communities. Despite these

limitations, EIA is still considered a well established and publicly accepted process in many

countries and development co-operation agencies (Agrawala et al., 2010).

The Canadian Environmental Agency (CEAA) has been amongst the first agencies to address

EIA, SEA and CC. The CEAA 2003 guidance for the incorporation of CC considerations in

EIA highlighted the uncertainty of understanding CC impacts and argued that giving

consideration to CC at the project level will increase the awareness of CC mitigation

strategies, help proponents manage or reduce the potential risks associated with CC impacts

and assure the public that CC considerations are being taken into account (CEAA, 2003). The

guidance also makes the point that local information is more challenging to acquire and the

contribution of an individual project to CC cannot be measures. The CEAA (2009) notes that

EIA should be conducted as early as possible in the planning and proposal stages of a project

30

for the analysis to be valuable to decision makers and to incorporate measures to reduce

projected adverse impacts. This is also in line with the requirements for SEA and using both

SEA and EIA in conjunction would result in environmental assessments being conducted at

all levels of decision making.

31

Chapter Three: Methodology

This investigation comprised primarily of a review of EIA documentation, short series of

questionnaires and emails. The available documentation supplied objective information about

how CCA has been considered in past urban projects. The responses to questionnaires and

emails also provided an insight into issues related to the EIA process and various challenges

in practice. These findings from the questionnaires are in effect complementary sources of

information. A broad Internet search of secondary sources e.g. academic literature, media,

presentations) was also conducted. The key search terms used in all possible combinations

included CC, CCA, EIA, ES and urban regeneration.

For detailed information on documentation and from the questionnaires sent, the reader is

referred to appendix B of this research.

Environmental Statements of eleven projects post 2005 were reviewed in this research. Four

out of these projects have been looked at in greater depth (i.e.) entire EIA process. Each

project meets the threshold requirement for an ES and has a medium to long time horizon,

thus it could or will be affected by climate change, or was included because CC had been

identified as an issue.

Urban Development thresholds for the requirement for an Environmental Statement

The development should fall within the category of „urban development projects‟ in

the EIA Regulations. Such projects, where they are in excess of 0.5 hectares, are

referred to as „Schedule 2 development‟ and require the preparation of an ES, subject

to confirmation by the relevant planning authority.

(EIA Directive)

“the site area of the scheme is more than 5 hectares or it would provide a total of

more than 10,000 m2 of new commercial floor space”

(Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions, 1999)

32

The selected projects for the documentation review:

1. Liverpool Waters

2. Carlyon Bay

3. Edinburgh Harbour

4. Huntsgrove

5. Centenary Quay Woolston

6. Surrey canal; London‟s sporting village

7. Sowerby Bridge Copley Valley

The following projects were chosen for an in-depth review of the EIA process:

1. Ashton Green

2. Bilston Urban Village

3. Brent Cricklewood

4. Olympic Village

33

Figure 5 shows the locations of selected projects (Ncube.BC)

The exploration of the eleven past projects reviews CCA measures and additionally the four

selected projects will look at EA procedures, processes or decisions. CC Mitigation

observations will be of secondary importance however links between mitigation and

adaptation will be made.

3.1 ES review (7/11 projects)

The first investigation comprises of a review of only Environmental Statements (ESs)

produced for seven projects. The author chose to investigate the consideration of CCA in EIA

through the ES because the statement is a tool for communication and dialogue with the

public and other interested parties regarding environmental performance of a project (EMAS,

34

2001). Its purpose is to inform decision-making and advice about the impacts and possible

alternatives before proceeding with the development.

This first review aims to show a summary of the consideration of CCA in urban regeneration

projects of various scales and in various locations. It also aims to identify the main CC

impacts that are being considered as well as to identify any common factors. The presentation

of the findings is detailed in summary boxes in chapter Four of this research, with further

details documented in the appendices.

3.2 EIA review (4/11 projects)

The second investigation comprises of a review of the EIA process for four major projects.

The author reviewed documents available on the web concerning the project and additional

information was sourced through internet searches with words related to the project and

CCA.

An in-depth review was done in order to gain greater understanding of the drivers for the

consideration of CCA in the regeneration projects. Four of the largest and high profile

projects were chosen for this review, this gave better quality information and easy document

availability. The EIA process review aims to identify the following:

The main drivers for the CCA consideration in the development;

The measures integrated into the EIA process and how it influenced decision-making

in the process;

The factors that limit the incorporation of CCA in the EIA process.

The review identifies the measures of CCA primarily through the adaptation for green

infrastructure and blue infrastructure (see further project details in Appendix A.). The green

and blue spaces in an urban regeneration have a vital role to play in our capacity to adapt.

35

They provide:

A natural cooling effect to mitigate the urban „heat island‟.

space for sustainable urban drainage to absorb and divert excess rainfall

space for renewable energy resources, such as ground source heat pumps

vegetation to reduce the effects of air pollution and to store carbon

place for species to migrate and adapt to the effects of climate change

(Shaw et al., 2007)

Box 2: Green Infrastructure typologies

Parks and public gardens

General amenity space

Woodland

Watercourses and waterways

Waterbodies

Grassland and heathland

Coastal habitat

Moorland

Agricultural land

Community gardens and

urban farms

Derelict land

Street trees

Source: Northwest GI Guide, 2010

Box 3: Blue Infrastructure typologies

wetlands

ditches

ponds

lakes

drainage systems

ecological corridors

Source: greeninfrastructure-eu, 2011

36

3.3 Questionnaires and emails

Responses from questionnaires and emails gathered experience, knowledge and suggestions

from people who played diverse roles within past projects. Fifteen names were contacted,

however responses were few. These included two EIA consultants and two LA officials. The

goals of the consultation were to explore what the drivers and imitations are for the

incorporation of CCA in EIA as well as to gather input on how local authorities review ESs

for urban developments and what they look for with respect to CCA.

The following persons responded to the questionnaires:

1. Simon Lucas, Regeneration Officer, Wolverhampton City Council

2. Iain Bell, Regional Director and Planner, AECOM

The following persons responded by providing information through email:

3. Melanie Robertson, Sustainable Development Officer, Southampton City Council

4. Dan Knight, Energy Projects Officer, Calderdale Council

The questionnaires were tailored accordingly including information about specific projects

were applicable. Emails were personalised and sent for comments and information on CCA,

EIA and specific projects involved in.

The responses provided an insight into issues related to EIA and climate change that may not

have been available in the documents reviewed. The responses given have been integrated

into the final research analysis in chapter Five.

37

Chapter Four: Presentation of findings

This chapter presents the findings from the reviews for the selected projects. The first review

of seven selected projects are summarised in text boxes with further details of the project in

the appendix A, and following that are selected details from the second in-depth review.

38

4.1First Review: Environmental Statement

Box 4 (see appendix A1)

LIVERPOOL WATERS

The Liverpool Waters vision involves regenerating a 60 hectare historic dockland site to

create a world-class, high quality, mixed use waterfront quarter in central Liverpool. It

includes a mixed use development of over 9000 residential homes, visitor attractions and

supporting uses, office/commercial and local shops and services. The development seeks to

deliver 1,319,732 sq m within a 30 year construction programme (2012 – 2041).

There was a good focus on climate change mitigation in particular within the projects energy

strategy. CC was mentioned briefly in the developer‟s aspirations as well as in later chapters

concerning resource efficiency. Adaptation was however more difficult to find within the ES.

The management of water such as rain water harvesting is thoroughly detailed in the ES. Due

to its scale and sensitive location, the design and implementation of sustainable drainage

systems taking climate change into account is vital. The flood risk assessment acknowledged

sea level rise and extreme events.

A Climate Change Baseline assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the site

was done in November 2008. Traffic, noise and air and landscape and visual assessments

recognised future baseline changes into the assessments in post operation year impact

scenarios and effective monitoring of baseline conditions is mentioned.

Main climate change impacts addressed:

• Sea level rise

• Extreme storm events

Identified drivers of climate change adaptation:

• Local framework is used as guidance for climate change.

• Building and design standards such as BREEAM are used for the project.

39


CARLYON BAY

The Carlyon Bay development is a smaller regeneration project comprising of 21.6 hectares

and aims to play an important role in transforming St Austell Bay. The scheme will provide

new sea defences, commercial, retail and 511 homes as a contribution to affordable housing in

the area. Construction of the development is anticipated to take approximately 3.5years

commencing in 2012.

The sustainability statement for the proposed development detailed that the project will

achieve a 15% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from regulated energy use

through on-site renewable energy generation. The ecology assessment detailed several efforts

related to CCA mesures. Features mentioned in ecology chapter included new nesting

opportunities/brown roofs/lighting designed to reduce impact upon nesting birds and bats,

habitat creation. A consideration for CC and increased storminess (1 in 200 year event) was

included in the FRA. It also details the risk of overtopping occurring during storms and

extreme events.

No future baselines or long term horizons were considered outside the construction period.

Main climate change impacts addressed within the project:

Sea level rise

Extreme storm events

Identified drivers of climate change adaptation:

Planning Policy Statement („PPS‟) 25: Development and Flood Risk (2010)

40

Box 6 (see appendixA3)

EDINBURGH HARBOUR

Edinburgh Harbour is a waterfront development proposal with the aims to becoming the

link between Leith Docks and Edinburgh city centre. The 52.3ha development will include

1,870 residential units, commercial and retail as well as public spaces. The Edinburgh

Harbour master plan combines two urban villages (sub areas) Britannia Quay and

Waterfront Plaza as the first of a series of nine urban villages in the Leith Docks

application. The project has a 15 year construction period (2010-2015).

A pattern of public realm and open spaces of different scales and characters are

introduced, however there is no thorough description of the quality of the spaces or any

integration of ecological factors. This was also highlighted in the scoping opinion and

response given suggested that information requested was not „necessary‟ for an ES. SUDS

are proposed on the site where applicable however further details of drainage systems

implemented and management of water resources are poorly mentioned.

The FRA considered the potential effects of CC up to 2057 for flood levels and year 2115

for extreme water levels. The drainage modelling adopted an increase in the storm

intensity of 20% which is consistent with the effects of climate change for a development

with a design life of 60 years as outlined in PPS25.


Sea level rise

Extreme weather events

41


HUNTS GROVE

Hunts Grove is located north of Junction 12 of the M5 Motorway near the boundary between

Stroud District and Gloucester City. The proposed development comprises a maximum of

1750 houses, new community facilities and open space, and an area of employment

development to be accessed from Water wells Business Park to the north. The project covers

an area of approximately 105 hectares of which over 32 hectares are proposed as public open

space. The developments‟ construction time is 9years (2006-2015).

The ES describes the function of green infrastructure very thoroughly for the proposed

development. Adaptation to potential climate changes is identified through ecological

corridors, attenuation ponds and nature conservation. There is also key integration of green

infrastructure with necessary grey infrastructure of the development. SUDS are proposed to

minimise surface run-off from the development in addition to the use of porous pavements.

Attenuation basins and dry basins are proposed to accommodate for excess storm flow from

residential area and contain water only during times of heavy rainfall. Rain water recycling is

used for landscape and gardening use.

There is no direct mention of climate change in the Policy used in the ES.

The landscape and visual assessment and the transport assessment used future baselines up to

15 years post operation.


Sea level rise

Extreme rainfall events

Urban Heat Island effect

Identified Policy Drivers:

Stroud District Local Plan

PPS9 Biodiversity and Geological Conservation

PPG25: Development and Flood Risk

42


CENTENARY QUAY WOOLSTON

The planning application for Centenary Quay Woolston (12.5ha) is a mixed use

development including residential, retail, restaurants and cafes, offices, yacht manufacture,

business, industrial, storage and distribution uses, hotel live/work units, community uses,

two energy centres, car parking and considerable public open space, river edge works and

quays.

The ES considers the sustainability of the development as a fundamental consideration in

the design by selecting specific sustainability criterion. The criterion explains briefly that

the effects of climate change will be further taken into account during detailed design of the

buildings in terms of ventilation, heating and cooling requirements. The project proposes

habitat creation such as green roofs, hedges, scrub and high quality planting. SUDS are

proposed as part of the drainage strategy. The system is to incorporate vegetated roofs,

water stores at the base of buildings and then infiltration through new soft landscape. Lined

permeable pavements will ensure a significant reduction in the run-off rate from extreme

rainfall events. Swales are proposed to collect, convey and attenuate and treat surface water

runoff.

No policy mentioned climate change directly; however its‟ adaptation and mitigation was

insinuated through the local policy. Guidance and ratings concerning the designs of the

project such as Eco-Homes and SEEDA were used in order to estimate the contribution of

the scheme to the overall emissions of CO2 from Southampton. It was found insignificant

and emissions on a county and national scale were found negligible. The FRA calculated

extreme still water level for the year 2060 and 2115 and factored in possible effects of CC.


• Sea level rise

• Extreme weather events

• Urban Heat Island effect

43


LONDON’S SPORTING VILLAGE

This mixed use development will include retail, cafes, restaurants, hotels, residential, leisure

and community facilities. The site is approximately 10.5 hectares in size and the construction

period is from 2010-2025.

The development introduces extensive SUDS techniques into the design of the development

such as extensive use of green and brown roofs. The emphasis of the SUDS should be on

flow and volume reduction, ecological and amenity value. Permeable paving will be used to

collect runoff from paved areas. FRA considers the 200 year plus CC flood level for the year

2107 using the Environment Agency modelled tidal flood level.

No consistent use of future baselines where found, with the exception of the FRA. Mitigation

of CC is mentioned through energy efficiency measures and BREEAM ratings.

The Policies integrated are clear drivers for the integration of climate change and climate

change adaptation.


• Sea level rise


• Urban Heat Island effect

44


SOWERBY BRIDGE COPLEY VALLEY

The 14ha proposed development is located in a flood sensitive area. As a development it has

also experienced high community involvement concerning the environmental position of the

project. A redevelopment is of the western end of the Stern Mills site for residential

properties. It includes a retail area with spots related businesses, a nature reserve, a new

bridge link and a new square. The development will undergo a six year construction process

from 2011 to 2017.

The air quality and noise assessments used 2010 traffic flow data for the baseline situation

and then assessed 2015 as an assumed opening year and 2020 with the proposed

development operating at maximum capacity.

Habitat creation is clearly described as part of the development proposal. The role of

wetlands and as part of climate change adaptation is identified s well as potential

reimbursements in terms of natural capital or ecosystem services. 6 Hectares of open space is

provided and varying shaped and scaled water bodies are distributed around the site. Green

roofs are advised as part of the scoping process; however there is no mention of

implementation.

The high risk of flooding and extreme weather events is considered one of the biggest issues

for this development. CC is incorporated thoroughly in the flood risk assessment as well as

in the design for the bridges. Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems are proposed through

flood basins and rainwater harvesting. The flood defences included are set at climate change

level.


• Sea level rise


45

4.2 Second Review: EIA Process

4.2.1 Ashton Green Project

Ashton Green is a 130 hectare site owned almost entirely by the City Council and has been a

strategic housing allocation since the mid 1970s. It aims to play a major role in delivering the

new housing that Leicester needs. As an urban extension to Leicester, Ashton Green will be

part of the One Leicester vision for the City. The aim is that it will shape Leicester as

Britain‟s sustainable city by delivering a distinctive, safe, green and well connected place and

it will become a thriving, prosperous mixed community with a dynamic heart and strong

identity within the city. The proposed development of the site is envisaged to take between 15

and 17 years to complete (2012 – 2026).

CCA considerations were found to be made, although it is clear that the primary focus for CC

incorporation was on CC mitigation. Further project details can be found in appendix A8 of

this research.

Identified Drivers for Climate Change adaptation

International and European City Profile

Leicester, located in the East Midlands is the tenth largest city in the UK and the most

populous city in the East Midlands. Leicester City Council has been known as a strong

unitary authority and it has had a long history of pioneering work on the sustainable

development agenda. This agenda has benefitted from strong political commitment with

councillors who genuinely want to deliver on sustainability (CAG, 2010). This commitment

is further reflected in the 2007 Climate Change Adaptation Action plan and the One Leicester

25 year vision to make Leicester Britain‟s sustainable city. These plans were highlighted in

the EIA documents and for the developments sustainable objectives.

Leicester was designated the first Environment city within the UK in 1990, with the remit to

deliver sustainable development in the confines of a working city. Over the past decades, the

city‟s initiatives have attracted international and European funding sources. The city of

Leicester is also recognised as a world leader in urban energy management and

environmental innovation. Leicester‟s international reputation along with strong political

support acts as a driver for the efforts towards CC and CCA in new urban developments.

46

Inter Regional Linkages

Leicester sits within the Three Cities sub-area consisting of Leicester, Derby and Nottingham.

The regional Plan Sub-Regional Strategy (SRS) was set up for these cities and this

framework seeks to focus on sustainable urban growth, with an emphasis on green

infrastructure and biodiversity in principal urban areas (within which Ashton Green sits). In

November 2006 the council also signed the Nottingham Declaration which committed the

organisation to tackle global climate change at a regional level. Through this SRS, CC

adaptation and mitigation is recognised to be the most significant issue for the future of the

region. Ashton Green was developed to be the region‟s leading example of environmentally,

socially and economically sustainable development in Leicester. The regional commitment

increases Leicester‟s accountability for climate protection and sustainable development.

Local policy, local networks and local commitment

Crucial to Leicester‟s success in addressing CC issues is its development of local policy

initiatives and local support. Leicester City Council has long been considered a front-runner

in local environmental policy (Bulkeley, 2006). Since the 1970‟s, the Council has been

concerned with developing open space within the city, and enhancing habitats for urban

wildlife as well as the reduction of GHG emissions. With the 2003 introduction of the city‟s

climate change strategy, the council has committed to develop plans with partners and local

communities to progressively increase the city centre‟s resilience to climate change. Bulkeley

in his book „Cities and climate change‟ (2006), suggests that it has been those local

authorities with a history of interest and action in climate change which have continued to be

the most active, and which have benefitted most from the additional funding available.

Planning policy and guidance mentioned in ES concerning CC includes:

PPS1: Delivering Sustainable Development (2005) & Planning Policy Statement:

Planning and Climate Change – Supplement to Planning Policy Statement 1 (2007)

PPS22: Renewable Energy (2004)

PPS25: Development and Flood Risk (2006)

By Design: Urban Design in the Planning System – Towards Better Practice (DETR

& CABE 2000)

Code for Sustainable Homes, BREAM standards

47

4.2.2 Bilston Urban Village

Bilston Urban Village is widely known as the CCA pilot of the west midlands. It has been

mentioned as a key example of good practice on CCA for urban regeneration projects

(DEFRA, 2007). This development aims to be a major part of the neighbourhood planning

exercise under the localism bill and will aim to reflect the success of sustainable

neighbourhoods. Progress is being made currently on site, however adverse economic

conditions have lengthened the time of construction for certain elements of the development.

In view of this, various design and CCA efforts have been revised and costs of adaptation

have been reviewed causing more significant delays (Wolverhampton City Council, 2010).

Despite various constraints Bilston urban village still stands as a flagship project for building

climate resilience for new developments.

It is less than 1km south of Bilston High Street, which forms the heart of the community, and

4km from Wolverhampton City Centre. The site comprises approximately 43 hectares of

previously developed land of which much is derelict land. Further project details can be

found in appendix A9 of this research.

Figure 6 showing proposed comprehensive drainage strategy (Wolverhampton City Council, 2010)

48

Identified Drivers for Climate Change Adaptation

Development of a £200 million mixed use project

The £200 million plus development, principally funded by Wolverhampton City Council,

Advantage West Midlands and Places for People (the lead developer) is expected to create

350 jobs during the construction phase and almost 750 jobs once the scheme is completed.

The „urban village‟ was originally intended to demonstrate sustainability through a mixture of

housing, employment, retail, leisure and community facilities. The consideration of climate

change was mandatory for such a high profile project. However the developers ensured that

CCA was considered in the design and early layout and remediation of the site.

Site Vulnerability

The 41 hectare development is highly susceptible to flooding. The Bilston brook, originally

an open watercourse runs directly through the centre of the site and is enclosed in culverts fed

by existing storm water sewer tributaries. In addition, 34 hectares consists of impermeable

surfaces which make the site more vulnerable to surface water flooding. Historic severe

flooding in Northamptonshire also led to high consideration of sustainable drainage features

and attention to the contouring of the new landform. The FRA showed clear and

comprehensive consideration of CC. A thorough drainage strategy taking CC into account

was also laid out (Fig.6).

Local commitment to tackle climate change

The midlands city of Wolverhampton recently acknowledged the fatal impacts of climate

change and the urgent need to address them locally. A declaration on climate change in 2006

was signed by political groups in the city to acknowledge the increasing impact that climate

change will have on the community during the 21st century. This agreement commits to

tackle the climate change causes and effects and aims to ensure that the city is well equipped

to cope with inevitable climate change in the years to come. To fulfil this declaration, a

climate change strategy and action plan was developed for 2009 to 2012.

49

Drive of Key players

Without the enthusiasm and vision of key players within the project, it is acknowledged that

CCA would not have been so thoroughly considered (CAG, 2010). The developer,

Sustainability West Midlands Climate Change Partnership worked on case studies which

demonstrated action on CC and they additionally tested a new decision-making tool produced

by UKCIP (CAG, 2010). This interaction of passionate local authority officers and

developers is largely the reason why CCA was incorporated and followed through.

Key players involved

Sustainability Officer, Wolverhampton City Council

Sustainability West Midlands Climate Change Partnership

Advantage West Midlands (regional RDA)

UKCIP

Methods for Climate Change Adaptation

The development used the process, Risk, Uncertainty and Decision Making Framework tool

developed by UKCIP. As shown in figure 7, the framework is an 8-stage iterative process

based on standard decision-making and risk principles. It encourages the users to consider

climate risks alongside non-climate risks.

50

Figure 7 showing UKCIP risk framework tool (Agrawala et al, 2011)

51

4.2.3 Brent Cricklewood

The Brent Cross and Cricklewood Regeneration is a site of 150ha divided into two parts

either side of the North Circular Road; the Cricklewood Rail Lands and Eastern Lands to the

south and the existing Brent Cross Shopping Centre to the north. The vision for the site as

intended by the Applicants is to create an environmentally sustainable mixed use „urban

quarter‟ with a long term management regime. Further project details can be found in

appendix A10 of this research.

Identified Drivers for Climate Change Adaptation

Building and design standards and environmental performance targets:

Building regulations are increasingly being used to tackle CC by setting higher standards and

making them simpler and more transparent a. Cricklewood shows clear commitment to

achieving high ratings for the Code for Sustainable Homes for all residential developments

with regard to residential building emissions. The development also aims to meet the

„essential standards‟ as set out in the London Plan Supplementary Planning Guidance on

Sustainable design and construction. Homes are also envisioned to be lifetime homes and to

meet sustainable energy performance.

Policy Drivers:

Local Policy: LB Barnet Council Core Strategy

The challenges facing the council in protecting and enhancing Barnet‟s suburbs,

accommodating growth are amongst others, the demand and use of environmental resources

and impacts on pollution and climate change. The draft Core Strategy sets out key issues

concerning environmental sensitivity and addressing climate change as a driver of change

within the area.

Regional Planning Policy; London Plan:

Since the introduction of the London Plan, it has been recognised as a crucial driver for CCA

in new London developments including Brent Cross and Cricklewood and the Olympics.

52

Other relevant policies include; PPS Planning and Climate Change Supplement to PPS1;

PPS3; PPG13; PPS22; the Mayor‟s Energy Strategy; Sustainable Design and Construction

SP.

Box 11: London Plan (HM Government, 2011)

Policy 4A.1 Tackling climate change

The Mayor will, and boroughs should, in their DPDs require developments to make the

fullest contribution to the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change and to minimise

emissions of carbon dioxide.

Integration of adaptation measures with mitigation to tackle climate change will be sought

through the approach set out in Policy 4A.9.

Policy 4A.9 Adaptation to Climate Change

The Mayor will, and other agencies should, promote and support the most effective

adaptation to climate change, including: minimising overheating and contribution to heat

island effects

(Policy 4A.10)

• minimising solar gain in summer (Policy 4A.10)

• contributing to reducing flood risk including applying principles of sustainable urban

drainage (Policies 4A.13 and 4A.14)

• minimising water use (Policy 4A.16) and

• Protecting and enhancing green infrastructure.

These contributions should most effectively reflect the context of each development – for

example, its nature, size, location, accessibility and operation. The Mayor will and

boroughs should ensure that development is located, designed and built for the climate

that it will experience over its intended lifetime.

53

Key Collaboration:

The consultants Scott Wilson and partners of the Brent Cross Cricklewood project made sure

in October 2005, that flood risk and wider issues such as biodiversity and recreation were

considered as part of the initial planning application. An Environment Agency report on the

project stated that „Early discussions with the developers meant that they could find a win-

win solution for all involved.‟ This collaboration resulted in easier approval for the outline

planning application in 2008 (EA, 2010). The partners of this large project (Hammerson plc,

Standard Life, Brookfield Europe) were found to be extremely enthusiastic about working

together and delivering a sustainable and adaptive Brent Cross Cricklewood (Future of

London, 2010).

54

4.2.4 Olympics

The Olympic Games have primarily been viewed as a catalyst for regeneration within a

region. Inevitably, this great ambition has been matched by high levels of infrastructure

investment and a supported mix of public and private sector funding (Poynter et al., 2009,31).

Unlike many other sporting events, the Olympics can also be considered as a global

movement redefining and defending specific values such as community and social

regeneration and sustainability. Paul Toyne in the „Olympic cities: 2012 and the remaking of

London‟ (2009) states that „the Olympic games cannot afford to be anything other than a

force for good simply because of its huge impacts and the global frenzy.‟ Further project

details can be found in appendix A11 of this research.

The vision of the scheme is summarised in the design and access statement as;

„To create an exceptional Olympic Games with a lasting legacy, and in so doing reclaim the

Lower Lea Valley for London, to create a benchmark for a 21st century urban environment by

delivering unique, diverse and vibrant places for all those who live, work and visit the area.

The Olympic Games will facilitate one of the largest and most significant urban regeneration

projects ever undertaken in the UK, transforming the Lower Lea Valley into a vibrant new

urban quarter and a place of local and national pride.‟

The site occupies a total area of approximately 246ha. The ES covers the effects of the Lower

Lea Valley Olympic and Legacy Scheme from 2006 through to 2021. The project is in four

phases:

1. Olympics Construction Phase (2007-2011)

2. Olympic and Paralympics Games Phase (2012)

3. Olympic Legacy Transformation Phase (2013-2014)

4. Olympic Legacy Phase (2015-2021)

The Olympic Site is broadly defines as the area bounded by:

A12 (East Cross Route) and Ruckholt Road (A106) to the north;

River Lee Navigation (Hackney Cut) and River Lea to the west;

The Lea Valley railway line, Stratford City development site and Waterworks, river to

the east;

55

Bow Back River and the River Lea to the south.

The Site is made of five main elements:

1. The Olympic Park and Concourse;

2. The Olympic Sports and Non-sports Venues (permanent and temporary);

3. The Athletes‟ Village;

4. The International Broadcast Centre and Main Press Centre (IBC?MPC); and

5. The Ancillary Olympic Facilities

The London-2012 regeneration will also create over 9,000 new homes, new sports and leisure

facilities, a health centre and school in the local area.

London hosting the Olympic Games in 2012 has been seen as a significant opportunity for

London to enhance its sustainability and to initiate environmental improvements. It has been

universally seen that the potential of the Olympic design is to redress the deficiencies of the

host city‟s built environment and to contribute to long term sustainable development, of

which addressing climate change is a major part of it (Pitts, 2009).

Drivers for Climate Change Adaptation

London 2012

The year 2012 is globally significant. This is the year that the Kyoto Protocol is set to expire

and it is hoped that a new path forward will begin towards the mitigation of climate change

and the initiation of adaptation strategies. Rio+20 Earth Summit is also taking place in 2012.

These historic sustainable development events draw attention to how important it is that the

Olympics are a vehicle of change and its sustainability commitments are achieved. Showing

substantial evidence of CCA is high on the substantial agenda for the Olympics.

Communications and Stakeholder engagement

Tasked with delivering the lasting Olympic legacy vision is a wide array of stakeholders, but

the principal accountability lies within two bodies:

1. Olympic Delivery Authority (ODA)

2. London Organising Commitee of the Olympic Games and Paralympic Games

(LOCOG)

56

The London Sustainable Development Commission in partnership with the National

Sustainable Development Commission established a „watchdog‟ for the Games, The

Commission for Sustainble london 2012. Whilst the Commission provides external

governance, the board of stakeholders ensures delivery of sustainability objectives by

working closely with the host London Boroughs, the GLA group, nations and regions, central

Government, British Olympic Authority and other sports authorities. DEFRA is workking

extensively with the key stakeholders to develop objectives and a delivery strategy for

building a lasting and sustainable legacy.

Established Policy Framework

A clear and thorough policy framework context was provided for the Olympics in order to

ensure successful delivery of the „sustainability‟ vision. Policies, plans and programmes

mentioned in the ES such as the Effective London Plan can be found in the appendices of this

research. In addition to these, the London 2012 Organising Committee developed a

sustainability policy and accompanying plan, which set out the concept of One Planet Living

and actions to achieve it. It focuses on five headline themes of which CC is a primary issue.

Sustainability benchmarking tools

Design teams will provide a report to the ODA during RIBA Stage C for client approval,

setting out how they will do this, using the London Climate Change Adaptation Checklist. All

housing will also be in accordance with the new Code for Sustainable Homes. All Olympic

Village homes are to meet Life time Homes standard post Games and venues and housing

will be designed, as far as is reasonably practical, to adapt to future climate change.

Legacy

Beyond the site-specific work is the development of building a lasting and sustainable legacy.

With the 2012 Games a unique catalyst, the UK aims to make the Olympic Park a blueprint

for sustainable living. The environmental focus of the Olympic Legacy is on energy and

CCA. Due to the lifetime of the development, long term plans are outlined for flood

management, building design, landscaping and ecological management and operational

planning. This encourages longer baselines to be used and wider time horizons.

57

Figure 8 shows the phases of the 2012 programme (ODA, 2010)

58

Figure 9 showing Olympic Legacy Phase completion (2015-2021) and CC impacts during building lifetime of

100 years.(web source, 2011)

59

Chapter Five: Analysis

This chapter will draw on literature and policy review discussed in Chapter Two to discuss

and analyse the findings from the author‟s research. The chapter aims to show the limitations

of the incorporation of CCA in EIA by identifying key internal and external factors to EIA.

An analysis summary table of the four in-depth reviews is also shown.

The results and identified drivers for the incorporation of CCA in the reviewed projects show

the high potential of EIA as a vehicle towards better CC planning and decision-making. Early

consideration of CC as an important concern in EIA is emphasised and this will enable a clear

understanding of the scope of adaptation issues as well as the risks posed to the development.

IEMA introduced CCA in EIA guidelines this 2011, which state that:

„...from the earliest stages of design the EIA should focus its attention on

The potential in-combination effects of both the project and future climate change on

the receiving environment with a focus on locational and operational impacts;

The resilience of design features, construction materials and planned operational

processes to the predicted consequences of climate change;

During scoping, climate change mitigation and adaptation issues and opportunities

should be considered alongside each other to maximise integration in project design.‟

(IEMA, 2011)

Figure 10 sourced from OECD, describes the possible entry points for considering CC

impacts and adaptation within the EIA procedures. Bilston urban village showed CC impact

entry point at the strategic phase by identifying the site vulnerability whereas other projects

showed adaptation measures in the detailed assessment phase, particularly after review and

consultation. Bilston village further shows through EIA documents that early incorporation of

CCA measures in EIA is a good investment and saves potential high costs of retrofitting in

the future. Identifying CCA measures and costs early maximises the integration in project

design, for example in the Olympic park design, the role of green and blue infrastructure in

adapting to CC was identified early, and this influenced the design and orientation of the

buildings. The potential increase in temperatures also influenced the foundation designs for

the buildings.

60

The ES is a public document and serves as a basis for consultation and public participation.

The Brent Cross Cricklewood and Sowerby Bridge developments demonstrate that

incorporating CCA at the scoping and consultation stages informs and involves the public

and relevant stakeholders in tackling CC. This helps to enhance transparency of decision-

making processes and provides a temporary community forum at which different perspectives

can be considered.

Figure 10 showing the potential entry points for considering climate change impacts and adaptation in EIA

(Agrawala et al., 2010)

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5.1 Summary analysis of in-depth review projects

Table 1 showing summary analysis for four in-depth review projects

Urban

Regeneration

Project

Strengths

Constraints

Key Messages

Ashton Green

Strong policy

context with key

inter-regional

linkages and

Leicester

sustainable core

vision

Master plan

approach towards

consideration of

CC

Strong

dependency on

CC mitigation

without

linkages to CC

adaptation

Leicester

vision and

local

development

frameworks

still only

guidance with

no planning

requirement

tied in

Developing

Regional

support and

good policy

context for the

approach to

CCA

Working with

local and

regional

partners

enabled more

ambitious

project than

would have

occurred

otherwise

Bilston Urban

Village

Early

identification of

site vulnerabilities

Proposed

adaptation

measures

included in master

planning, found to

be cheaper and

more effective

Heavy

dependency on

key

individuals, a

sudden change

in authority

may threaten

commitment to

approach

Climate Risk

Assessment

and climate

reports were

well thought of

in initial stages

not as

afterthought

Whole site and

master

62

than „retrofitting‟ planning

approach

ensured

adaptation

considered in

all key

processes

Brent Cross

and

Cricklewood

Early consultation

with partnerships

and developers

concerning CC

Scope of

public

consultation

concerning CC

and its

approach could

have been

wider to gain

more

community

engagement

Key partner

consultation

concerning

CCA measures

proposed early

in EIA process

enabling better

decision

making

Historic

planning

delays brought

joint and more

refined

approach to

development

and successful

collaboration

Olympics

Global

Sustainability

expectations for

development

ensure necessary

attention given to

sustainability

objectives (CC)

Complexity of

stakeholder

network could

lead to possible

delays

Unique

timescale for

the Olympics

Early

consideration

of CC and

CCA in EIA

enabled

impacts

assessed to

influence

63

Wide and

effective

consultation

supporting global,

national and local

involvement

Unambiguous and

technically sound

guidelines

ensured clear

awareness of

council and local

requirements for

developers

Overall City

vision led to

substantial efforts

towards CCA

incorporation

potentially led

to CC planning

goals to be

excluded

decision

making in

design stages

High profile

and

international

development

ensured access

to more

funding and

support

opportunities

The

demonstration

of the

additional

benefits of

adaptation

action was key

to community

engagement

It is also evident that even where practice and research have developed; there are still

limitations in the implementation of adaptation and in futures thinking. The author will

analyse these limitations by examining the explanations in two aspects: Factors internal to

and external to EIA.

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5.2 Internal factors

‘Objectives-led’ approach

The review shows that there is a clear lack of holistic integration of CC and CCA in the

projects assessed. None of the 7 Environmental Statements in the first review showed any

indication of CCA measures in its initial scoping or consultation stages. Brief introductory

sustainability chapters were used in certain projects such as Carlyon Bay and Centenary

Quay, where CC was mentioned as a sustainability and project objective. This use of

„sustainability‟ as a wide encompassing umbrella of which CC falls under showed absence of

understanding the need to holistically address CCA within the projects. Morris et al (2009:

472) argues that reliance on sustainability objectives in EIA increases the risk that

environmental concerns continue to be marginalised under rhetoric of „sustainability‟. When

approached by the author concerning CCA in EIA, Respondent 3 and Respondent 4

responded generally by referring to relevant PPPs, the sustainability checklist and building

regulations with „aspects related to climate change‟. It seems therefore that there is the

possibility of guidance constraining EIA (Wilson et al., 2010) to treat climate change as a set

of limited objectives rather than as an opportunity to assess impacts over time.

Impact Chapters

The findings of the review clearly indicate that specific topics such as flooding are addressed

more thoroughly although no systematic consideration of CC is made. Looking into the UK‟s

history of flooding and the future impacts of potential extreme flooding by UKCIP, it is

acceptable and good that the CC in FRA is adequately considered in all projects, and a

significant attempt is made to ensure that that extreme weather events is accounted for.

Although the existing 20% CC allowance in flooding guidance makes no allowance for any

regional variation in CC, it reduces the uncertainty in dealing with CC and helps practitioners

make decisions quicker. However, the author suggests that this clear attentiveness only to

flooding and flooding related issues such as drainage creates the assumption of sufficient

CCA consideration in EIA if flooding is covered.

Consequently this assumption is seen throughout the ES review. This is also reflected in

practice as Respondent 2 states that „...Calculation / mitigation of GHG emissions is standard

practice and important... The recent major urban regeneration projects that I have been

involved with in recent years have not given particular prominence to climate change

65

adaptation with the exception of flood risk issues.‟ He additionally comments that „CCA

currently influences project design in relation to flood risk, reducing GHG emissions and

energy efficiency, but after that it is limited.‟

There is a greater need for more integration of the consideration of other climate change

impacts such as the urban heat island effect and increasing water demand leading to potential

drought. An example of other impact consideration is shown in the Brent Cricklewood and

Bilston developments, where use of drought resistant and native species were part of the

landscape strategy to ensure a degree of tolerance to CC and to create communities that will

develop naturally as the climate changes.

Mitigation and Adaptation

The synergy and possible conflict of CC adaptation and mitigation is detailed in chapter two,

with the conclusion that adaptation and mitigation measures are not alternatives but they are

complementary. However, the reviews show that adaptation and mitigation and are still

depicted and demonstrated as separate. Klein et al agrees that CC adaptation and mitigation

in planning and policy still appear contrived. The mitigation research community has relied

strongly though not exclusively on the „top-down‟ approach, whereas the adaptation research

community has put its emphasis on local and place-based analysis (IPCC, 2007). The ES

review shows CC mitigation measures were given more attention than adaptation where in

most cases CC adaptation did not carry enough weight.

EIA process: ‘Constrained and formulaic’

Climate change is usually seen as larger than single projects. A CEAA (Canadian

Environmental Assessment Agency) report (2000) on EIA and CC included interview

responses that suggested that CC might be better dealt with outside the EIA process. With

some interviewees expressing the view that climate change may be a „force-fit‟ within the

EIA process. This view was reflected in an informal conversation with Respondent 2, who

insinuated that fully considering CC at project level is complex and there is a possibility that

EIA might not be the right channel for it. This view supports Sadlers approach detailed in

chapter two.

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5.3 External Factors

In addition to the internal factors, there are reasons identifies that are external to EIA.

Uncertainty

The uncertainty in climate science and predictions is highlighted as a significant barrier to the

incorporation of CC and CCA within the EIA projects. An Organisation of Economic Co-

operation and Development (OECD) report (2010) on the challenges and opportunities of

integrating CC in EIA, concludes that the availability of, and uncertainties associated with,

climate projections at the project scale are clearly a key bottleneck. The Bilston Urban

Village development uses UKCIP 09 climate scenarios and the Risk, Uncertainty and

Decision Making Framework tool developed by UKCIP and the Olympic Village also uses

UKCIP tools, however uncertainties are still prevalent. Projects are more sensitive to changes

in climate extremes in comparison to changes in mean conditions; however changes in

climate extremes are found to be more difficult to predict and are considered more uncertain.

Furthermore OECD research (2010) stated that local scale climate projections that are

relevant for project level decision-making also tend to be more uncertain than climate

projections over a larger spatial area.

The integration of CC and CCA in EIA also calls for the use of longer horizon baselines in

assessments. As stated in the results chapter, the review shows that post development

baselines are inconsistently used in impact chapters such as the traffic, air quality and

landscape assessments. Wilson et al (2010: 145) suggests that short time horizons for most

EIAs are a possible result of the reluctance to address uncertainty. This is also reflected in the

responses from the questionnaires. Respondent 2 states that „Predicting change long into the

future is problematic – there are many uncertainties.‟ He agrees that there is adequate

information available for the incorporation of CC in EIA within the requirements of the law

however, „There is a difficulty predicting so long into the future and in establishing the

effects of specific actions. GHG emissions studies may lack detail on some aspects of a

projects‟ emissions.‟

Plans, Policies and Programmes

The review has identified that policy and guidance is the biggest driver for the integration of

CCA in EIA. Many of the ESs referred to key planning policies such as the PPS1 and PPS25,

67

local core strategies and sustainable or CC guidance. Respondent 3 detailed that all new

developments are subject to the core strategy; however CCA is not directly mentioned.

Respondent 1 comments on this gap by stating that „There is little in the Core Strategy which

relates directly to climate change (flood risk and urban heat island effect is mentioned under

ENV5) which would make it difficult to justify a strong position with regard to ESs.‟

Recent guidance and policy has proven to be fragmented and inconsistent with many plans

focusing on short time frames such as ten to fifteen years rather than extended horizons.

These limitations influence the EIA process and determine the direction of any project. The

CEAA report (2000: 15) on EIA and CC cited the lack of clear guidelines as a notable

shortcoming and when Guidance requirements are implicit and weakly documented,

measures taken are uncertain or vague.

EIA is highly dependent on guidance or precedent, focusing on process rather than

substantive content (Wilson et al., 2010: 147). Policy and non governmental guidance

produced thus far has resulted in confusion and possible conflict. It has been found that few

guidance attempts to establish a level of significance for climate change impacts which leaves

the door open for individual definitions of thresholds. A recent environmental policy review

showed that much of the analysis provided at project level especially for preliminary analyses

is qualitative and without a threshold established in policy, it is possible that CC may be

deemed an insignificant impact and not further addressed in the ES (Slotterback, 2011).

Dialogue of climate science community and EIA practitioners

The CEAA (2000) acknowledges that a gap exists between needs and expectations from the

EIA community on the one hand and climate change science on the other. The agency advises

that practitioners should consider new ways to take available information into account while

climate change scientists should formulate their information in such a way that is most useful

to the EIA community.

Projects can be sensitive to a broad set of climate related variables that range from increases

in temperature to changes in rainfall, stream flow, permafrost thickness, and wind intensity.

In addition, some variables can be projected better than others. For example, temperature

increase is easier to project than sea level rise or changes in rainfall, which in turn are easier

to project than changes in wind intensity (Agrawala et al., 2010). It is these complexities of

climate science that need to be adequately communicated to project developers and those

68

charged with environmental assessment. In a recent presentation, AECOM (2011) suggests

that there is a lack of suitable practitioners with sufficient work experience in both EIAs and

Climate Change Risk Assessments due to the weak dialogue between the climate science

community and EIA practitioners. Additionally, an understanding of these issues can be a

resource intensive process which could potentially be an „unreasonable‟ expectation for the

developer and the local authority.

Current economic and political condition

EIA can be identified as both as „science‟ and an „art‟ with the combination of both political

input and scientific processes. EIAs have been found to be often produced under tight

deadlines, data gaps and simplifying assumptions (Glasson et al., 2005). The EIA process for

the four projects reviewed in depth has shown that EIA can be a political process and can be

determined by UK economic trends. This consequently can affect the amount of

consideration and time taken for issues such as CCA. Respondent 1 identifies with this for

Bilston Village by stating that „. The development has not proceeded in line with the

developed plans and we are currently revisiting objectives and assumptions. The extent to

which climate change considerations will be factored in is difficult to predict given very

different economic conditions and a political desire to get something done almost irrespective

of longer term consequences.‟

Certain decisions made concerning CCA in projects are very much dependent on factors such

as the financial status of the project (funding) and in this case, the UKs economic stability.

69

Conclusion: The future of EIA

This research has argued that CCA is necessary and required at the project level. Adaptation

asks vital questions such as; can you improve your project and can you make your project

more resistant and more resilient? Based on the findings from the proceeding chapters, EIA is

a crucial vehicle in answering those questions. It is still clear that as a nation, the UK still has

much to cover in order to successfully adapt to CC in EIA. Figure 11 sourced from OECD

(2010) demonstrates the overall picture of the evolution of CCA in EIA for various countries

and jurisdictions.

Figure 11 showing evolution of adaptation to CC (Agrawala et al., 2010)

This figure shows that there is a strong gap between the „desire‟ to incorporate CCA in EIA

and putting it in practice. With the UK still located under the EU in signalling its intent

through planning documents and strategies, the overall integration of CCA in EIA processes

remains at an early stage in both developed and developing countries. AECOM consultants

(2011) suggest that „guidance and adjustments of the legal and regulatory frameworks are

necessary to bridge the gap between intention and action.‟

As detailed previously in this research, the UK has made key steps towards including CCA in

frameworks and operational guidelines however without compliance and enforcement by

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government, guidance documents are just words on paper. Rob Verheem from the

Netherlands EIA Commission stated at an international CC and Impact Assessment

conference (2010) that „EIA is not only about information, because if you only have a book

full of information nothing will change. A good dialogue about that information, influence

and enforcement is important.‟

.In EIA, multiple parties are involved and much attention is devoted to co-ordination and

communication, and the role of government in coming to collaborative action. The Olympic

development is typically a high profile development that has gained significant international

interest. However because of its status, more stakeholders are involved and thus making it

more subjective, time consuming and difficult to come to solid decisions. The research shows

that although larger scale projects were found to be more complex (...as expected), a more

holistic approach to CCA was found in the larger projects.

Limitations such as the availability of, and uncertainties associated with, climate change

projections at the project scale continue to be a key bottleneck. Additionally, the availability

of detailed information on the historical climate as well as access to details of future

scenarios for the project location runs the risk of making unnecessary investments in altering

project design if the uncertainties are not adequately considered. As more data about local

and regional impacts become available, greater investment needs to be made in generating

reliable climate change projections at a local level. The significance of CC effects at project

level needs to be communicated to practitioners and this requires a better dialogue between

climate scientists and the practitioners.

It continues to be argued that SEA is a more appropriate tool for dealing with CC, because it

is based on a holistic approach and encourages long-term strategic thinking (Posas‟s, 2011).

The author disagrees with this view and recommends that SEA should be used for policy and

needs assessment and possibly followed by EIA in relation to site-specific considerations.

With CCA highly dependent on local governance and local community efforts, incorporating

adaptation at the project level is vital. The author firmly believes that EIA as a vehicle for

CCA shows many opportunities to build resilience and thus improve the quality of life for

people, both now and in the future. It is important that EIA practitioners, planners,

developers, architects, policy makers, local authorities use the unique characteristics and

consequences of climate change to powerfully re-think and re-shape the ways in which local,

national, regional and international planning, design and policy making are conducted.

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There is still clear scope for a more overall and holistic approach to CCA in urban

regeneration projects and much work needs to be done in the effective communication of CC

impacts at the project leve. As multi-level governance becomes more established and more

detailed climate change information becomes available, the use of EIA to further promote

„climate proofing‟ at the project level will be better acknowledged and accepted.

6.1 Areas for further research

This exploration of CCA in the context of EIA and urban regeneration projects suggested a

number of areas in which follow up could be interesting and beneficial. With the introduction

of CC in the EIA Directive and the National Adaptation programme this year, it would be

beneficial to investigate in the future on how these introductions will and have affected EIA

in practice and key players such as local authorities. More work on the linkages of CCA, EIA

and SEA is warranted, with respect to urban developments. A further topic for research

would be to investigate which sources of guidance were used to address CCA in EIA, why

they were used or chosen and which were most available. Such information could be solicited

via survey and interviews of local authority personnel and EIA practitioners and would be

useful for determining channels to employ future publishing of updated guidance and

information on CC and CCA.

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Appendix A: Selected project details and Climate

Change Adaptation considerations

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Appendix A1: Liverpool Waters

Project Description

The Liverpool Waters vision involves regenerating a 60 hectare historic dockland site to

create a world-class, high quality, mixed use waterfront quarter in central Liverpool

(ThePeelGroup, 2007). Liverpool Waters will include mixed use development of residential,

visitor attractions and supporting uses, office/commercial and local shops and services. It will

accommodate city centre expansion and will further stimulate economic and social

regeneration and integration with the adjoining areas of the city centre, north Liverpool and

the wider sub-region. The development seeks to deliver 1,319,732 sq m within a 30 year

construction programme (2012 – 2041).

Significant Milestones

In March 2007 Peel Land and Property launched a concept vision for 60 hectares of their land

holdings in central Liverpool which they branded as „Liverpool Waters‟

The Environmental Statement (ES) for Liverpool Waters was submitted in October 2010. The

ES was prepared by WYG on behalf of Peel Land & Property (Ports) Limited (Applicant).

Climate change Issues Addressed in ES

The proponent considered the impacts of climate change in the developer‟s aspirations for the

project. This particularly focused on climate change mitigation in relation to resource

efficiency and the projects energy strategy. The aspirations recognised legislative

requirements for the reduction in carbon emissions. Further policy such as the Liverpool

Climate Change Strategic Framework (2009) was used within the planning context.

Calculations of existing discharge rates took climate change into consideration. The

methodology presented by the proponent for the construction impacts on the floodplain

included a 20% climate change projection when assessing the drainage strategy. The phased

mitigation strategy for operational impacts on flood plain and flood risk included peak runoff

from development and/or climate change.

Climate change Adaptation addressed

Green Infrastructure

74

The proposal uses accepted guidance such as BREEAM for the design of the communities.

However very little detail is given concerning the contribution and integration of green

infrastructure in the ES. It refers instead to the sustainability statement which is not reviewed

in this review.

Blue Infrastructure

The management of water on this proposal is thoroughly detailed in the ES. Due to its scale

and sensitive location, the design and implementation of sustainable drainage systems taking

climate change into account is vital. The ES details strategies for water harvesting using the

likelihood of 1 in 30 year storm events.

Acknowledgment of climate change in the policy context

Planning Policy Statement 1: Supplement – Planning and Climate Change

(Communities and Local Government, 2008)

Planning Policy Statement (PPS) 1 gives priority to the use of sustainable drainage systems,

paying attention to the potential contribution to be gained to water harvesting from

impermeable surfaces and encourage layouts that accommodate waste water recycling. In

terms of evidencing compliance with this policy, this assessment chapter provides an

assessment of the impacts of water use and disposal and the mitigation required to minimise

impacts from the development on the water environment.

Liverpool Climate change Strategic Framework (Liverpool City Council, 2009)

The associated Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities Framework for Liverpool‟s (2009)

identify a number of priority risks. These include drainage and portable water supplies.

Main National Impacts of climate change addressed

The proponent acknowledged sea level rise within the flood risk assessment by ensuring a

minimum level above the 1:200 year extreme sea level for 2115. Extreme rainfall events are

assessed to unlikely impact the development due to topography of the land and development

set floor levels however a high level assessment of the attenuation capacity of the dock

system was taken for a 100 year storm event (including 20% climate change).

75

Future Time horizon and baseline

The assessments are largely based on the comparison of expected impacts compared with

current or recent baseline environmental conditions. This is with the exception of traffic,

noise and air and landscape and visual assessments which factor baseline changes into the

assessments in future year impact scenarios. The project recognises that the future baseline

may change. This is addressed by ensuring baseline conditions are reviewed in the future.

General Observations

Scientists globally have been studying climate change for decades, and even more intensively

in the most recent decades. This project benefitted from that research and from the analysis of

that information, according to its availability. One notable shortcoming in the assessments

was the inadequate information concerning the changes in extremes. This was evident in the

flood risk assessment for the assessment of the likely extreme water level over and above the

extreme net sea level. The data provided by the Environment Agency was „inconclusive‟ for

the determination and therefore it was agreed that the part of the assessment will be deferred

to detailed plot application stage until the data is more conclusive.

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Appendix A2: Carlyon Bay

Project Description

The Carlyon Bay development aims to play an important role in transforming St Austell Bay.

The site comprises 21.6 hectares and is broadly in three parts: Crinnis, Shorthorn and

Polgaver. It aims to create a first class year round holiday and residential complex. The

complex will broaden the tourism offer in the south west and reinforce Cornwall as a visitor

destination and achieve regeneration and community benefits for the local area. The scheme

will provide new sea defences, commercial, retail and 511 homes as a contribution to

affordable housing in the area. Construction of the development is anticipated to take

approximately 3.5years commencing in 2012.

Significant Milestones

Application for development and cliff stabilisation February 2005

Application for revised seawall April 2005

Submission of Environmental Statement February 2011


The proposal for the revised seawall submitted in 2005 was rejected due to many factors.

Amongst those factors, included the importance of considering climate change as the coastal

location is likely to be affected significantly by changes in the climate. This coastal location

will experience the impacts of climate change and therefore consideration of these impacts is

vital.

In the scoping opinion, issues were raised by Carlyon Bay Watch concerning how the design

had adopted a precautionary approach as indicated in guidance. The approach to

sustainability for the project included energy and climate change and consideration for

climate change was included in the flood risk assessment. An increased storminess (1 in 200

year event) is taken into consideration. Sustainability statement for the proposed development

detailed that the project will achieve a 15% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions

from regulated energy use through on-site renewable energy generation.

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Climate change Adaptation addressed:


The ES explains briefly in a sustainability chapter of plans to increase biodiversity and

possible adaptation to climate change. Features mentioned in ecology chapter included new

nesting opportunities/brown roofs/lighting designed to reduce impact upon nesting birds and

bats, habitat creation. The development of a landscape and ecological management plan aims

to manage and monitor retained and new habitats within the site. On-site renewable energy is

to be installed in order to reduce emissions in addition to the advantage of south facing

orientation of all buildings on the site.

Blue Infrastructure

Surface water drainage systems are detailed with allowance for climate change or any

mention of sustainable drainage systems. The flood risk assessment details the risk of

overtopping occurring during storms and extreme events.


Planning Policy Statement („PPS‟) 25: Development and Flood Risk (2010)

The sea defences have been designed to meet the requirements of PPS25: Development and

Flood Risk. This has included the requirements set out within PPS25 to consider the effects

of climate change and uncertainty.

Core strategy: adaptation to climate change (Cornwall Council)

Main Impacts of climate change addressed

The project assesses the effects of long-term sea level rise in the modelling of beach

morphology. 100 years sea level rise allowance was added to the water level used for the

scenarios. Increased storminess was also assessed in response to the beach cross section

profile including 1:200 year conditions.

Future Time horizon and Baseline

No future baselines were considered outside the construction period.

78


Historical climate data was beneficial in assessing future changes; however confidence was

lacking in relation to the climate science in the assessments in particular flood risk. It is noted

that modelling used to determine overtopping water behind the sea defence was changed

throughout the assessment.

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Appendix A3: Edinburgh Harbour

Project Description

Edinburgh Harbour is an opportunity to create a mixed use area to anchor the new quarter of

Edinburgh. Edinburgh Harbour is a waterfront development proposal with the aims to

becoming the link between Leith Docks and Edinburgh city centre. The 52.3ha development

will include 1,870 residential units, commercial and retail as well as public spaces. This ES

has been prepared by Buro Happold Ltd for the Edinburgh Harbour detailed master plan

under the Environmental Impact Assessment (Scotland) Regulations 1999.The Edinburgh

Harbour master plan combines two urban villages (sub areas) Britannia Quay and Waterfront

Plaza as the first of a series of nine urban villages in the Leith Docks application. The project

has a 15 year construction period; 2010-2015.


The project uses drainage modelling that adopts an increase in the storm intensity of 20%,

which is consistent with the effects of climate change for a development with a design life of

60 years (PPS25). The flood risk assessment proposes new coastal defences that would

reduce wave overtopping to safe levels during a 1 in 200 year event including an allowance

for climate change effects.(pg 85,vol4).Tidal eater level and fluvial flood level included an

allowance for climate change.



A pattern of public realm and open spaces of different scales and characters are introduced,

however there is no thorough description of the quality of the spaces or any integration of

ecological factors. This was also highlighted in the scoping opinion and response given

suggested that information requested was not „necessary‟ for an ES.

The microclimate assessment uses vegetation and hedging as screens for wind mitigation and

to reduce wind channelling. The chapter also uses sunlight modelling for the courtyard areas.

This gives a slight idea of the quality of some spaces however no reference made in

adaptation to future impacts.

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Blue Infrastructure

SUDS are adopted on the site where applicable.


National Policy (Scotland‟s National Transport Strategy, 2006)

Reduce emissions – to tackle climate change, air quality and improve health;


Key baseline conditions relating to the Edinburgh harbour site included the extreme tidal still

water levels for a 1 in 200 year event. This considered the potential effects of climate change

up to 2115.The estimated fluvial flood level included an allowance up to 2057.


The proponent shows uncertainty and lack of accuracy in government guidance. The flood

risk assessment identifies a slight residual risk that climate change will have a significantly

greater impact on future sea levels and river flows than is predicted by the latest government

guidance on the issue. However no mitigation is proposed for this.

There seemed to be no integration of climate change adaptation efforts throughout the report.

Assessments and predicted results seemed separate. Potentially efforts should have been

made to integrate results of dock water levels into mitigation and adaptation strategy for

design.

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Appendix A4: Hunts Grove

Project Description

Hunts Grove is located north of Junction 12 of the M5 Motorway near the boundary between

Stroud District and Gloucester City. The Site forms part of a larger agricultural holding and is

bordered on all sides by built development and/or highways infrastructure. The proposed

development comprises a maximum of 1750 houses, new community facilities and open

space, and an area of employment development to be accessed from Waterwells Business

Park to the north. The project covers an area of approximately 105 hectares of which over 32

hectares are proposed as public open space. The developments‟ construction time is 9years

(2006-2015).


The proponent addresses climate change in the air quality assessment regarding greenhouse

gas emissions from the development and the potential contribution to climate change.

Occupation of future dwellings and buildings on site will contribute to an increase in impacts

of climate change. The proposed development encourages energy efficiency in order to lower

emissions.



The ES describes the function of green infrastructure very thoroughly for the proposed

development. Adaptation to potential climate changes is identified through ecological

corridors, attenuation ponds and nature conservation. There is also key integration of green

infrastructure with necessary grey infrastructure of the development. Use of open space is

particularly focused on and how the open spaces are linked to residential and employment

area.

Blue Infrastructure

SUDS will be used to minimise surface run-off from the development in addition to the use

of porous pavements. Attenuation basins and dry basins are proposed to accommodate for

excess storm flow from residential area and contain water only during times of heavy rainfall.

Rain water recycling is used for landscape and gardening use.

82


There is no direct mention of climate change in the Policy used in the ES.


The landscape and visual chapter assessed impacts at construction phase, operation year 1

and operation year 10.Transport assessment used historic and future baselines

2003;2013;2016.

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Appendix A5: Centenary Quay Woolston

Project Description

The planning application for Centenary Quay Woolston is a mixed use development

including residential, retail, restaurants and cafes, offices, yacht manufacture, business,

industrial, storage and distribution uses, hotel live/work units, community uses, two energy

centres, car parking and considerable public open space, river edge works and quays. The

project is located on the eastern bank of the River Itchen north of its confluence with the

River Test in Southampton Water, 2km to the southeast of Southampton City Centre.

Significant milestones

Savills (L&P) submitted hybrid planning application in March 2008

Revision of ES submitted in July 2008: Revision included new proposals for habitat creation

to meet ecological aspirations.


The ES considers the sustainability of the development as a fundamental consideration in the

design by selecting specific sustainability criterion. This criterion has been considered

throughout the evolution of the project. Potential impacts of climate change have been taken

into account considering the orientation and siting of the buildings. No further details of how

this was done are given in the ES. The sustainability criterion explains briefly that the effects

of climate change will be further taken into account during detailed design of the buildings in

terms of ventilation, heating and cooling requirements.

A brief chapter is introduced to explain the potential impacts on Climate change. This

highlights the use of the SEEDA (South East England Development Agency) Checklist tool

and Building for Life standards. All homes have been registered under EcoHomes 2006, and

the aspiration is that all dwellings within Phase 1 will achieve an „Excellent‟ rating.



The project proposes habitat creation such as green roofs, hedges, scrub and high quality

planting. The Landscape strategy aims to create a diverse riverside landscape however there

84

was no future reference of the planting or monitoring during operation. (revised July ES

mentioned long term management of the biodiversity measures.)

Blue Infrastructure

SUDS are proposed as part of the drainage strategy. The system is to incorporate vegetated

roofs, water stores at the base of buildings and then infiltration through new soft landscape.

Lined permeable pavements will ensure a significant reduction in the run-off rate from

extreme rainfall events. Swales are proposed to collect, convey and attenuate and treat

surface water runoff.


No policy mentioned climate change directly; however its‟ adaptation and mitigation was

insinuated through the local policy. Guidance and ratings concerning the designs of the

project such as EcoHomes and SEEDA were used in order to estimate the contribution of the

scheme to the overall emissions of CO2 from Southampton. It was found insignificant and

emissions on a county and national scale were found negligible.


The flood risk assessments calculated extreme still water level for the year 2060 and 2115.

These years are referred to as the „development lifetime‟ for commercial and residential land

uses respectively. No other reference to a future baseline was mentioned.


The review of the potential impact of climate change was limited to the review of

sustainability and carbon emissions. It was concluded early on in the ES that no further

mitigation was proposed and the effects of climate change considered insignificant. This

conclusion led to less attention paid towards the adaptation to climate change throughout the

EIA process.

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Appendix A6: London’s Sporting Village

Project Description

This mixed use development will include retail, cafes, restaurants, hotels, residential, leisure

and community facilities. The site is approximately 10.5 hectares in size and the construction

period is from 2010-2025.



Biodiversity enhancements are proposed through the use of green/brown roofs and new

grassland areas.

Blue Infrastructure

The development introduces extensive SUDS techniques into the design of the development

such as extensive use of green and brown roofs. The emphasis of the SUDS should be on

flow and volume reduction, ecological and amenity value. Permeable paving will be used to

collect runoff from paved areas.

Policy outlined in water resource assessment highlights the need to consider climate change;

however there is no evidence of this in the analysis.

Flood risk assessment considers the 200 year plus climate change flood level for the year

2107 using the Environment Agency modelled tidal flood level. The flood defences are

considered to protect the areas to a standard of 1 in 1000 year allowing for climate change up

to 2107. Potential attenuation volumes were not accurately quantified at the stage of the ES.

Software was utilised to provide a quick estimate of the potential attenuation volume for the

100-year event with a 30% allowance for the potential effects of climate change.


PPS1 Supplement: Planning and Climate Change (2007)

It is important to note that the Government recognises that the planning system cannot in

itself prevent climate change although it can assist in minimising impact through promoting

sustainable development. As such, the PPS1 Supplement includes a significant emphasis on

carbon emissions from domestic and non-domestic developments and encourages local

86

planning authorities to seek energy contributions from renewable sources and exceed

building regulations where achievable, for example, through the use of the Code for

Sustainable Homes. (pg 5)

PPS4: Planning for Sustainable Economic Growth (2009)

PPS22: Renewable Energy (2004)

The London Plan Consolidated with Alterations Since 2004 (adopted 2008)

Objective 6: to make London an exemplary world City in mitigating and adapting to climate

change and a more attractive, well designed and green City.

Policy 5.11: “Major development proposals should be designed to include roof, wall and site

planting, especially green roofs and walls where feasible (a) adaption to climate change (i.e.

aiding cooling); mitigation of climate change (i.e aiding energy efficiency).

Policy 12 of the Core Strategy, The policy states:

‘In recognising the strategic importance of the natural environment and to help mitigate

against climate change the Council will conserve nature, green the public realm and provide

opportunities for sport, recreation, leisure and well-being.‟

PPS25 – Development and Flood risk

Climate change scenarios, a 20% increase on the 100-year river flows and a 10 to 30%

increase in design rainfall (PPS25 Table B.2), should be taken into account when designing

drainage infrastructure and in setting requirements to prevent the increase in flood risk off

site as a result of a development.


The flood risk assessment estimated potential attenuation volume and run –off for the year

2107. This given year was used according to the data provided by The Environment Agency.


The sustainability strategy proposed does not take climate change adaptation into

consideration. Mitigation of climate change is mentioned through energy efficiency measures

and BREEAM ratings.

Wind microclimate chapter does not include any details of potential increase in wind speeds.

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Appendix A7: Sowerby Bridge Copley Valley

Project Description

The 14ha proposed development is located in a flood sensitive area. As a development it has

also experienced high community involvement concerning the environmental position of the

project. A redevelopment is of the western end of the Stern Mills site for residential

properties. It includes a retail area with spots related businesses, a nature reserve, a new

bridge link and a new square. The development will undergo a six year construction process

from 2011 to 2017.

The air quality and noise assessments used 2010 traffic flow data for the baseline situation

and then assessed 2015 as an assumed opening year and 2020 with the proposed development

operating at maximum capacity.

Habitat creation is clearly described as part of the development proposal. The role of

wetlands and as part of climate change adaptation is identified s well as potential

reimbursements in terms of natural capital or ecosystem services. 6 Hectares of open space is

provided and varying shaped and scaled water bodies are distributed around the site. Green

roofs are advised as part of the scoping process; however there is no mention of

implementation.

The high risk of flooding and extreme weather events is considered one of the biggest issues

for this development. Climate change is incorporated thoroughly in the flood risk assessment

as well as in the design for the bridges. Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems are

implemented through flood basins and rainwater harvesting. The flood defences included are

set at climate change level.

The proposed development

Significant Milestones:

An ES was commissioned by CMBC in 2006 for the Copley Valley Development Project.

Climate Change Adaptation Measures

The role of wetlands in climate change adaptation is detailed (potential

reimbursements in terms of natural capital or ecosystems services). 'naturally the

potential resilience and benefits of the wetland habitats for Calderdale in relation to

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climate change adaptation cannot be understated.'. The FRA takes CC into account;

development built on ground levels above climate change flood level.


6ha open space;additional habitat including grassland,woodland and wetland type.

waterbodies created and permanent ponds of varying shapes and sizes,

green roofs advised as part of scoping process (ES, pg254), no mention of

implementation, reference to design and access statement

5 year annual monitoring programme post construction for ecology.

Blue Infrastructure

flood basins; receive rainwater and runoff in the form of SUDS

high flood risk;flood defences set at climate change level

2015 baseline for traffic and traffic related impacts

89

Appendix A8: Ashton Green

Project Description:

Ashton Green is a 130 hectare site owned almost entirely by the City Council and has been a

strategic housing allocation since the mid 1970s. It will play a major role in delivering the

new housing that Leicester needs. As an urban extension to Leicester, Ashton Green will be

part of the One Leicester vision for the City. The aim is that it will shape Leicester as

Britain‟s sustainable city by delivering a distinctive, safe, green and well connected place and

it will become a thriving, prosperous mixed community with a dynamic heart and strong

identity within the city. The proposed development of the site is envisaged to take between 15

and 17 years to complete (2012 – 2026).

Significant milestones:

• EIA Process: December 2008 – May 2010

• Previous planning application for „Development for residential and associated

facilities‟ submitted in March 2004; used as a source of baseline data.

Ashton Green will offer:

Up to 3,000 new homes;

New jobs on up to 5 hectares of employment land;

Exciting new schools for ages 3 to 19;

Safe routes for pedestrians and cyclists;

Good public transport connections;

Community facilities and local public services

Regeneration benefits for neighbouring communities;

49 hectares of green space.

The site lies on the northern edge of Leicester, approximately 5km from Leicester city centre.

Leicester, policy and climate change adaptation

Leicester, located in the East Midlands is the tenth largest city in the UK and the most

populous city in the East Midlands. Leicester City Council has been known as a strong

unitary authority and it has had a long history of pioneering work on the sustainable

90

development agenda. This agenda has benefitted from strong political commitment with

councillors who genuinely want to deliver on sustainability (CAG, 2010). This commitment

is further reflected in the 2007 Climate Change Adaptation Action plan and the One Leicester

25 year vision to make Leicester Britain‟s sustainable city.

Three Significant Effects were identified in the Climate Change Adaptation Plan:

Flood Risk

Summer Heat waves and prolonged periods of Increased Average temperatures

Water Availability

Climate Change Adaptation efforts; Green and Blue Infrastructure

SUDS techniques are implemented to ensure that surface water runoff from the site does not

exceed that that currently exists in its Greenfield state in terms of both water quality and

quantity. Attenuation is also treated by the addition of ponds and swales together with the

use of permeable paving. The use of rainwater harvesting and green roofs in association with

commercial and public buildings will also be of benefit in the reduction and attenuation of

surface water runoff.

The Code for Sustainable Homes (CSH) standard is used within the first phase of the

development with respect to CO2 emissions, energy, water use and generation and the use of

low polluting materials and processes. The development will also comply with other existing

standards which are widely recognised within the development industry.

Approximately 49 Ha of open space will be provided by this development. The infrastructure

is influenced by ecological and habitat factors.

Sustainable development for Ashton Green primarily focuses on mitigation for climate

change through renewable energy and building regulations that improve the environmental

performance in terms of CO2 emissions and the use of low polluting materials and processes.

Air Quality assessment uses future baseline of 2026 predictions,

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Appendix A9: Bilston Urban Village

Bilston Urban Village is widely known as the climate change adaptation pilot of the west

midlands. It has been mentioned as a key example of good practice on climate change

adaptation for urban regeneration projects (Defra, 2007). This development will be a major

part of the neighbourhood planning exercise under the localism bill and will aim to reflect the

success of sustainable neighbourhoods. Progress is being made currently on site, however

adverse economic conditions have lengthened the time of construction for certain elements of

the development. In view of this, various design and climate change adaptation efforts have

been revised and costs of adaptation have been reviewed causing more significant delays.

Despite various constraints Bilston urban village still stands as a flagship project for building

climate resilience for new developments.

It is less than 1km south of Bilston High Street, which forms the heart of the community, and

4km from Wolverhampton City Centre. The site comprises approximately 43 hectares of

previously developed land of which much is derelict land.

The mixed use development will comprise of a Bilston leisure Centre, Community Facilities,

1040 dwellings, employment and retail areas. The vision is to provide a high quality

sustainable environment which accommodates a balanced mix of homes, employment and

community facilities. It aims to be a masterplan which protects and enhances landscape

character, visual amenity and biodiversity within the site and replacing dereliction with new

green infrastructure.

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Climate change projections for west midlands (Acclimatise, 2007)

By the 2020s By the 2050s

Hotter drier summers Average summer mean

temperatures to increase by

0.5 – 1.5deg Celsius

Summer precipitation to

decrease by up to 20%

Decrease in soil moisture

Average summer mean


1.5 - 3.0°C

Summer precipitation to


Decrease in soil moisture

Milder, wetter winters Average winter mean


0.5 – 1.0deg Celsius

Winter precipitation to


Average summer mean


1.0 -2 .0deg Celsius

Winter precipitation to


More extreme events An increase in the number of very hot days: heat waves to

become more frequent

Increases in intense precipitation, particularly in winter; a

greater proportion of rainfall to occur as heavy downpours

Climate Change Adaptation outcomes:

The climate change projections identified for the design life of the Bilston development

indicate that there will be a significant change in climate and therefore historic trends are not

suitable to base the design of the buildings. This early acknowledgement led to the

assessment of key elements of the building design during and during the environmental

impact assessment process. This led to the development of the „Climate Change Adaptation

Strategy‟ for Bilston development. This strategy was prepared in order to „back up‟ and

further inform the environmental statement and other documents. It also aims to identify

elements of the development which are vulnerable to climate change over the development‟s

design life (up to 2070). The strategy highlights key issues to the design team to help ensure

the buildings are suitably adapted and that there is an increase in resilience to potential

impacts of climate change.

93

The project adaptation responses to climate change are listed below:

Modification of pavement material designs and responsive mechanisms in order to

tackle increase in summer temperatures and more marginal calls led by warmer

winters. An increase in thermal expansion for concrete roads was also considered.

A comprehensive maintenance regime was also implemented concerning the potential

increase in rainfall intensity. Additional flow paths for excess run off where installed

and consideration was given to the levels of verges and surrounding topography.

Detailed drainage strategies where put into place to tackle increase in attenuation as

well as potential ground movements and change in soil moisture.

SUDS were implemented to potentially reduce inflow to attenuation ponds and allow

control flooding in other areas.

The landscaping strategy implemented trees and plants selected for tolerance to

anticipated changes in conditions. The landscape was also utilised in close relation to

its built element during the construction phase.

Future increase in demand for water supply was considered in the water features.

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Appendix A10: Brent Cricklewood

Project Description

The overall aim is to create a sustainable new town centre for Barnet. In addition to new

homes and jobs, the town centre will consist of new community facilities, transport

infrastructure, with a particular emphasis upon public transport and open space. The Scheme

will overcome existing barriers to movement within the Site, especially across the North

Circular Road (A406) and also ensure integration to existing surrounding areas, thus allowing

the benefits of the redevelopment to distribute beyond the boundaries of the Site.

Construction is anticipated to commence in 2011 and end in 2026.

Significant milestones

The planning application and an Environmental Statement (ES) were submitted to the

London Borough of Barnet (LB Barnet), the local planning authority, on 25 March 2008. The

applicants agreed to amend the ES accordingly and this was revised in March 2009. The

revised ES will be reviewed in this case due to unavailability of 2008 ES.


This project includes the design for nine new Bridges over the River Brent within Brent

Cross East and West zones. Soffit levels for the design use 1 in 100 year flood level including

climate change. Sustainable Drainage strategy aims to achieve a 25% reduction of the current

1:100 year return flow plus 30% for climate change.



The applicants are committed to sustainability within the scheme through the integration and

linkage of the public (open space) and private (buildings) realm. The overall increase in open

space and its reconfiguration provides the opportunity to increase the diversity of habitats

across the site, reinforce wildlife corridors and provide habitat management. Green and

brown roofs will be used for a minimum of 10% of roof areas dispersed across the

Development Zones. Future insight is seen in the planting details for the landscape

assessment. Drought tolerant planting is used as well as native species.

95

Details of the quality and value of the open space is given as well as its vital role within the

scheme. (in comparison with hunts grove)

Blue Infrastructure

Rainwater storage is harvested and used for irrigation and the Sustainable drainage strategy

details the use of attenuation basins, tanks and porous paving.

The ES however was revised in 2009 to include in the assessment an addition of 30% climate

change. The systems will be designed to convey 1 in 30 year storm rainfall intensity for

adopted pipe work and 1 in 100 year storm rainfall intensity for private drainage systems.


„...demand for and use of environmental resources and impacts of pollution and climate

change.‟ Challenges facing the Council in protecting and enhancing Barnet‟s suburbs,

Barnet draft Core strategy

„...being environmentally sensitive and addressing climate change.‟ Key issues that embody

the challenges and drivers of change, Barnet draft Core strategy

The London Plan (GLA,2004) identifies that the environment must improve and climate

change needs to be tackled. It also sets out plans to make London an exemplary world city in

mitigating and adapting to climate change and a more attractive, well-designed and green

city.

Supplement to PPS1 (2007) „Planning and Climate Change.‟ This document sets out how

spatial planning should contribute to reducing emissions and stabilising climate change, and

take into account the unavoidable consequences. The supplement recognises the importance

of design to minimise the impacts of climate change e.g building orientation and landscaping

and massing.

Kyoto Protocol,1997

Climate Change Act, 2008

Towards a Sustainable Transport System, 2007. This document asserts that „a fundamental

goal of transport policy must be to ensure that the transport sector plays its proper role in

our fight to tackle climate change‟.

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Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (vol 2, pg 406)

Acknowledgement of Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC). The ES uses the AR4‟s predictions of an increase in global

temperatures between 1.1 and 6.4 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. AR4 asserts that

this will result in a further rise in global sea levels of between 20 and 60 cm by the end of this

century.


Carbon emissions are estimated during operation post 2027 in comparison to current

emissions. Throughout the assessments, baselines are limited to construction period and no

future time horizon was considered.


The reduction in transport CO2 emissions as a result of this scheme does not meet the overall

target of the Climate Change Act and Carbon budgets of the Committee on Climate Change.

A background to climate change and its Drivers is given in the ES. The Government‟s

intention is that all new residential developments built after 2016 and new commercial

buildings from 2019 will be „zero carbon‟.

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Appendix A11: Olympics

Project Description:

The site occupies a total area of approximately 246ha. The ES covers the effects of the Lower

Lea Valley Olympic and Legacy Scheme from 2006 through to 2021. The project is in four

phases:

1. Olympics Construction Phase (2007-2011)

2. Olympic and Paralympics Games Phase (2012)

3. Olympic Legacy Transformation Phase (2013-2014)

4. Olympic Legacy Phase (2015-2021)

The Site is made of five main elements:

The Olympic Park and Concourse;

The Olympic Sports and Non-sports Venues (permanent and temporary);

The Athletes‟ Village;

The International Broadcast Centre and Main Press Centre (IBC?MPC); and

The Ancillary Olympic Facilities

London hosting the Olympic Games in 2012 has been seen as a significant opportunity for

London to enhance its sustainability and to initiate environmental improvements. It has been

universally seen that the potential of the Olympic design is to redress the deficiencies of the

host city‟s built environment and to contribute to long term sustainable development, of

which addressing climate change is a major part of it (Pitts, 2009).

An environmental impact assessment is required in order to elaborate the key environmental

action plans at a holistic level for the Olympic village.

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Projection of London‟s future climate (TCPA, 2007)

Figure showing Average monthly maximum temperatures (°C) in London over the century,

under a medium emissions scenario, compared to baseline period.

Figure showing Average monthly rainfall (mm of rainfall per month) in London over the

century, under a medium emissions scenario, compared to baseline period.

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Climate Change Adaptation methods

Figure showing Olympic Delivery Authority objectives (ODA, 2010)

The Olympic Deliver Authority took measures to ensure that the development adapts to the

changing climate. Among the measures are proactive flood risk management, the

incorporation of sustainable drainage systems, reducing the demand for potable water and

investigating the potential for water reuse.

The drier summers are likely to mean that subsidence may become a greater issue especially

in areas with clay soils. This risk was incorporated into the design of the foundations for the

buildings in order to ensure that they can cope with the predicted stresses.

Permeable materials were incorporated into the landscaping of the Olympic park to reduce

run-off during high rainfall events. The choice of native and drought resistance planting in

the landscaping assessment also reflect the possibility of low rainfall in summer, and to

reduce the demand for water for irrigation. The use of species and stock appropriate for the

projected future climate also take into account London‟s urban heat island effect. The

planting of stony meadows in particular, are a habitat that responds well to predicted climate

change of wetter winters, drier summers, and generally warmer temperatures.

The drainage assessment also details how surface water and foul drainage will be kept

separate to reduce unnecessary demand on sewage treatment facilities during high rainfall

events and to prevent pollution of surface or groundwater.

Housing and venue buildings will be designed and constructed to adapt to future climate

change using the London Climate Change Adaptation Checklist and building standards such

as the Code for Sustainable Homes, Lifetime Homes and Building for Life standards.

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Appendix B1: Questionnaire and Email list

Customised Questionnaires and Emails requiring general information were sent to 6

consultants and 5 local Authority officials:

The following persons responded to the questionnaires:

1. Simon Lucas, Regeneration Officer, Wolverhampton City Council

Contacted 21 June 2011

Responded 8 July 2011

2. Iain Bell, Regional Director and Planner, AECOM

Contacted 29 June 2011

Responded 26 July 2011

The following persons responded by providing information through email:

3. Melanie Robertson

Sustainable Development Officer

Planning & Sustainability

Southampton City Council

Tel: 023 8083 4262

Contacted on 17th May 2011

Responded on 17th May 2011

4. Dan Knight

Energy Projects Officer

Environmental Management Unit

Development Strategy Team

Calderdale Council

Northgate House

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Halifax HX1 1UN

Contacted on 17th May 2011

Responded on 21 June 2011

102

Questionnaire Response 1:

Name? Simon Lucas

Current Position Regeneration Officer

Background in environmental Science and EIA?

No, MA in Town Planning but with a particular interest in environmental issues

Question 1?

How important is the consideration of climate change when reviewing Environmental

Statements for Urban developments?

There is little in the Core Strategy which relates directly to climate change (flood risk and

urban heat island effect is mentioned under ENV5) which would make it difficult to justify a

strong position with regard to ESs. The weight attached to climate change in ESs would

depend on the type of development and which officers were involved.

Question 2?

Did the climate change assessment for Bilston Urban Village influence the project design or

monitoring programs? How?

There were minor revision s to the design (e.g. substations were moved out of areas

susceptible to flooding). In risk assessments undertaken for funding applications climate

103

change was identified as a major risk due to the nature of the intended re-profiling works. The

development has not proceeded in line with the developed plans and we are currently

revisiting objectives and assumptions. The extent to which climate change considerations will

be factored in is difficult to predict given very different economic conditions and a political

desire to get something done almost irrespective of longer term consequences.

Question 3?

Do you have any concerns or caveats about how climate change and adaptation to climate

change might be incorporated into the EA process?

It needs to be mandatory not discretionary. There are too many competing issues and cost

benefit analyses are not skewed enough to consider longer term implications.

Do you have any overall comments, perhaps from other urban regeneration projects?

n/a

104

Thankyou for your time

105

Questionnaire Response 2:

Name Iain Bell

Current Position Regional Director, AECOM

Background in environmental Science and EIA?

About 20 years experience. Planner by training

Question 1?

How important is the consideration of climate change in the EIA process with specific

reference to urban development projects?

Calculation / mitigation of GHG emissions is standard practice and important.

The issues associated with climate change may be considered in the wider project context, in

terms of design and planning but most EIAs focus on the likely adverse effects. The recent

major urban regeneration projects that I have been involved with in recent years have not

given particular prominence to climate change adaptation with the exception of flood risk

issues.

Question 2?

Is adequate information available for the incorporation of climate change into EIA?

Within the requirements of the law, normally yes. There is a difficulty predicting so long into

the future and in establishing the effects of specific actions. GHG emissions studies may lack

106

detail on some aspects of a projects emissions – they are not life cycle assessments.

Question 3?

In your opinion does climate change or the adaptation to climate change currently influence

project design or monitoring programs?

Certainly in relation to reducing GHG emissions and energy efficiency. Also in relation to flood

risk. But after that it is limited.

Question 4?

Do you have any concerns or caveats about how climate change and adaptation to climate

change might be incorporated into the EA process?

The significance of the effect can be difficult to define. Often one identifies an increase in

CO2, but what are the consequences of that specific amount of and is it significant? Climate

change is often better assessed strategically over multiple developments and/or large

geographical areas. This also allows the alternatives to be considered. An urban development

may increase GHG emissions but the alternative project in a rural area may have a greater

impact.

Predicting change long into the future is problematic – there are many uncertainties.

107

Thankyou for your time

108

Appendix C: Ethics Approval Form

110

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