climate change and building science€¦ · energy source: ubc (campus and community planning) with...
TRANSCRIPT
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Trevor Murdock
26 October 2018BC Building Envelope CouncilVancouver, BC
Robert Lepage
Climate Change and Building Science
Nutrition FactsServing Size 1 presentation
Amount Per Serving
Slides 39 Minutes 45
% Daily Value*
Maps 6 300%
Plots 9 450%
Photos 9 50%
Cartoons 0 0%
Humour 5% ?
* Percent Daily Values are based on a diet of one AGM
Taking future climate into account is
necessary
possible
December 2nd 2005
• 6°C snowing in ______
• 19°C sunny in ______
Climate: long term statistics of weather
Weather: conditions at a specific location & time
Victoria Montreal
• Weather: conditions at a specific location and time– December 2nd 2005
• 6°C snowing in Victoria
• 19°C sunny in Montreal
• Climate: long term statistics of weather– 1971-2000 average December
Climate: Long Term Statistics of Weather
Temperature Anomaly °C
*
Climate varies by location & with time
*
Temperature Anomaly °C
Climate Varies by Location and with Time
Temperature Anomaly °C
*
Climate Varies by Location and with Time
Taking future climate into account is
necessary
possible
a) Albert Einstein
b) Mark Twain
c) Winston Churchill
d) George Bernard Shaw
e) Niels Bohr
f) Will Rogers
g) Enrico Fermi
h) Yogi Berra
i) Dan Quayle
j) Woody Allen
k) Confucius
“Prediction is hard, especially about the future”
Historical Average BC temperature
PastMinor reductions (RCP8.5)Paris commitments (RCP4.5)Paris goal (RCP2.6)
Future Warming in BC
Days above 25°C
Increase Hot Days
Wettest day of the year
More Frequent and Intense Wet Days
Taking future climate into account is
necessary
possible
Energy Modelling – Simple Adjustment
0
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Current 2020s 2050s 2080s
EUI
(kW
h/m
2-y
r)
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Current 2020s 2050s 2080s
EUI
(kW
h/m
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r)
Heating Cooling
Hig
h-R
ise
Step
2St
ep 4
Energy
Source: UBC (Campus and Community Planning) with RDH
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Current 2020s 2050s 2080s
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(kW
hr/
m2)
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Current 2020s 2050s 2080s
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r)
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EUI
(kW
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r)
Heating Cooling
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h-R
ise
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-Ris
e
Step
2St
ep 4
Energy
0
500
1,000
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Past Past(updated)
2020s 2050s 2080s
Un
me
t Co
oli
ng
Ho
urs
Steo 2 Step 3 Step 4
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Past 2020s 2050s 2080s
EUI
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m2)
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Current 2020s 2050s 2080s
EUI
(kW
h/m
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r)
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Current 2020s 2050s 2080s
EUI
(kW
h/m
2-y
r)
Heating Cooling
Hig
h-R
ise
Low
-Ris
e
Step
2St
ep 4
Energy
Unmet Cooling Hours
• Make use of available climate information
• Consider a range of future projections
• Practice cross-disciplinary engagement
• Iteration, iteration, iteration
Best Practices
• “Climate is not static”
• “Past and ongoing… greenhouse gas emissions are expected to alter most climatic regimes in the future”
• “… buildings will need to be designed, maintained, and operated to adequately withstand ever changing climate loads.”
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Agree or disagree?Where are these quotes from?
Taking future climate into account is
necessary
possible
BC Building Code 2012
• “Climate is not static”
• “Past and ongoing… greenhouse gas emissions are expected to alter most climatic regimes in the future”
• “… buildings will need to be designed, maintained, and operated to adequately withstand ever changing climate loads.”
• “The analysis generally assumes that the past climate will be representative of the future climate”
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• Climate change costs in Canada: from $5 billion per year to $21 to $43 billion by 2050
• National Roundtable on the Environment and Economy, 2011
• 2012 global damages: ~$1.6 trillion per year (1.6% global GDP)
• 400,000 deaths annually
• By 2030: >$2.5 trillion per year
Source: Climate Vulnerability Monitor: A Guide to the Cold Calculus of A Hot Planet (2012)
Costs of Climate Change
• Standard of Care
• Engineers have a higher standard of care
• EGBC Position Statement on Climate Change:
• Legal and Professional risks:
• Legal Requirements
“Professionals can only be accountable for establishing that their work addresses concerns that could reasonably be identified given the state of knowledge at the time of their work”
“EGBC registrants… are
expected to keep themselves
informed about the changing
climate, and consider potential
impacts on their professional
activities”
→Professional liability and
negligence
→Ethical responsibility
→Were damages reasonably
foreseeable?
→Relying on existing regulatory
standard is not sufficient.
Standard of Care
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45Pr
ob
abili
ty o
f Occ
urr
ence
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Load
Loads ResistanceϕF θR
Limit States
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45Pr
ob
abili
ty o
f Occ
urr
ence
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Load
Loads Resistance
Limit States with Climate Change
0.1 – 0.2 % 4 – 13 %
Temperature Distribution
0
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10
15
20
25
30
35
40
May Jun Jul Aug
Tem
per
atu
re (
°C)
RCP 2.5 (2000) Avg Temp (7 day avg)
0
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May Jun Jul Aug
Tem
per
atu
re (
°C)
RCP 8.5 (2020) Avg Temp (7 day avg)
0
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May Jun Jul Aug
Tem
per
atu
re (
°C)
RCP 8.5 (2080) Avg Temp (7 day avg)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
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May Jun Jul Aug
Tem
per
atu
re (
°C)
Daily Temperature Ranges
Vancouver: 1953-1995
Vancouver: 2020 Projection (RCP8.5)
Vancouver: 2080 Projection (RCP8.5)
Business as usual (3.5 °C)2+ °C Target1.5°C Target
Current Design Parameters
Expanded Design Parameters
Building Code Parameters
Sub-optimal Design Parameters
Climate Design Parameters
Taking future climate into account is
necessary
possible
Infrastructure Components
Climate and Related Events
Component
dry
er
sum
me
rs,
wat
er s
hort
ages
cont
amin
ated
w
ater
hea
t w
aves
heav
y ra
infa
ll,
flas
h fl
oods
stro
ng w
inds
, st
orm
s
wa
rme
r sh
ort
er
win
ter
air p
ollu
tion
(O
zon
e,
smo
ke
from
for
est
fire
s)
Fire
s (l
ocal
)
Ligh
tnin
g st
rike
s
cold
sna
p, ic
e st
orm
s
hea
vy s
now
fa
ll/h
ail
high
er/l
ower
h
um
idit
y
windows n n y y y n y n n n y y
wall and roof insulation n n n y y n n n n y n y
siding/cladding/flashing n n n y y n n y n y y n
membrane/vapour-air barrier n n n y y n n y y y y y
entry/doors n n n y y n y y n y y y
roof - membrane n n y y y n n y y y y y
PIEVC Protocol- Concepts
Seve
rity
of O
ccu
rre
nce
7 7 14 21 28 35 42 49
6 6 12 18 24 30 36 42
5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
4 4 8 12 16 20 24 28
3 3 6 9 12 15 18 21
2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Probability of Occurrence
PIEVC SCORES
Score
Probability Severity
Method A Method E
0Negligible
Not Applicable
Negligible
Not Applicable
1Highly Unlikely
Improbable
Very Low
Some Measurable
Change
2 Remotely Possible
Low
Slight Loss of
Serviceability
3Possible
Occasional
Moderate Loss of
Serviceability
4Somewhat Likely
Normal
Major Loss of
Serviceability
5Likely
Frequent
Loss of Capacity
Some Loss of
Function
6Probably
Often
Major
Loss of Function
7
Highly Probable
Approaching
Certainty
Extreme
Loss of Asset
Risk Matrix
2
Infrastructure Components
Heat waves
Cooling Dry Bulb exceeds existing CSA/BCBC/ASHRAE Design of 26.8C
Y/N P S RRationale For
Severity Score
M MECHANICALHA
Score
Consultant
ScoreDecision
Critical Air Systems
12 O/A intakes N - -
13 Fans Y 7 3.8 3 3 21
14 Cooling Coils Y 7 5 5 5 35
15 Heating Coils N - -
16 Humidification N - -
17 Air Distribution Y 7 4 4 4 28
Risk Evaluation Approach
Increasing Mitigation
Increasing A
daptatio
n
Cohen and Waddell, 2008/ Harford, 2018
Maladaptation Low Carbon Resilience
Unsustainability
Code Minimum
New Vulnerabilities
High AFUE
Existing Bldgs
PH w/
Fossil Fuel
PH
Net Zero
Net Carbon
N-C + Future Climate
All Electric All Electric
Clean Grid
PIEVC
Adaptation and Mitigation
Taking future climate into account is
necessary
possible
Online adaptation tools webinarhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxj-3gPkDW4
• Plan2Adapt
• Regional Analysis Tool
• ClimateBC / ClimateWNA / HectaresBC / BC Climate Explorer
• PCIC data portals
– BC station data
– High-resolution PRISM climatology
– Statistically downscaled climate scenarios
– VIC hydrological model output (gridded)
– Station hydrological model output
• Seasonal maps
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PCIC* climate tools for BC
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Primary*audiences
Ease of use Flexibility Type of output
Plan2Adapt Planners Decision-makers Consultants
Easy Low Summary tableMapsPossible impacts
Regional Analysis Tool Impacts researchersEngineers
Difficult →Medium
High MapsPlotsRegional analysis
PCIC data portals Impacts researchersHydrologistsConsultants
Medium Medium Data
Seasonal maps Managers Easy Low Maps
ClimateBCClimateWNAHectaresBCDatabasin
ForestersEcologistsImpacts researchers
Medium High DataMaps
BC Climate Explorer Foresters, general Easy Medium MapsPlots
PCIC* climate tools for BC
• Adaptation guidance
• PICS adaptation in buildings infographic
• Infrastructure Canada Climate Lens
• BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure Technical Circular
• EGBC guidance document
• Climate / engineering language primer
• National guidebook on climate scenarios
More resources
• Educational/background
• CBC podcast mini series
• Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS): Climate Insights 101
• What if climate change is real? – Katherine Hayhoe Ted Talk
• Climate Projections Reports released by regional districts
• Climate Projections for the Cowichan Valley Regional District
• Climate Projections for the Capital Region
• Climate Projections for Metro Vancouver
• Climate Projections for Whistler
• City of Vancouver Climate Impacts Summary
And even more resources
2015 https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/2015_Year_in_Review-Final.pdf
2016 https://www.pacificclimate.org/news-and-events/news/2016/bc-track-set-new-temperature-record-2016 and https://www.pacificclimate.org/news-and-events/news/2017/climate-variability-hot-cold-winter-%E2%80%9916-%E2%80%9817
2017 https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/PCIC_Update_Mar_2018.pdf
2015 / 2016 /2017 weather events, seasons
Acknowledgements
• The PIEVC Protocol is copywritten under Engineers Canada and was shared with RDH by David Lapp, FEC, P.Eng.
• The case study project team consists of Rivercourt Engineering Ltd., Simon Fraser University, Prism Engineering Ltd., and McElhanney Consulting Services Ltd.
→Thank you
www.PacificClimate.org
www.rdh.com
www.buildingsciencelabs.com
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Questions?