climate change and cdm saadullah ayaz

Climate Change,Climate Change Mitigation

Opportunities for Developing Countries

IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature

Saadullah AyazClimate Change Coordinator

IUCN Pakistan

ABOUT IUCN

IUCN- International Union for Conservation of Nature is the world’s oldest andlargest global environmental network- a democratic membership union with morethan 1,000 government and NGO member organizations, and almost 11,000volunteer scientists in more than 160 countries worldwide.

IUCN helps the world find pragmatic solutions to our most pressing environmentand development challenges. It supports scientific research, manages field projectsall over the world and brings governments, non-government organizations, UnitedNations agencies, companies and local communities together to develop and


Nations agencies, companies and local communities together to develop andimplement policy, laws and best practice.

IUCN has a status of an ‘Observer’ in UN General Assembly

IUCN’s Vision and Mission

IUCN’s vision is a just world that values and conserves nature. IUCN’s mission is to influence, encourage and assist societies throughout the world to conserve the integrity and diversity of nature and to ensure that any use of natural resources is equitable and ecologically sustainable.

What does IUCN do?

Knowledge: IUCN develops and supports cutting edge conservation science, particularly in species, ecosystems, biodiversity, and the impact these have on human livelihoods.

Action: IUCN runs thousands of field projects around the world to better manage natural environments.


better manage natural environments.

Influence: IUCN supports governments, NGOs, international conventions, UN organizations, companies and communities to develop laws, policy and best-practice.

Empowerment:

IUCN helps implement laws, policy and best-practice by mobilizing organizations, providing resources, training people and monitoring results.

Climate Change/

Global Warming:


INTRODUCTION

DEFINING THE CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate Change is a significant statistical variation of the average

state or climate variabilities which occur during a long period

(at least some decades or 30 years).

In other words, climate change represents a trend in the behaviour


In other words, climate change represents a trend in the behaviour

of a climate variable, for example, a trend towards an increase in

average temperature.

CLIMATE CHANGE PHENOMENON

The Greenhouse EffectSome gases naturally exist in the atmosphere, the so calledGreenhouse Gases (GHGs) that form a blanket surrounding the earthand keeps the earth warmer. This is called Greenhouse Effect.

The Enhanced Greenhouse EffectHuman activities (fossil fuel burning, depletion of sinks like forests


Human activities (fossil fuel burning, depletion of sinks like forestsetc.) has been increasing the concentration of GHGs in theatmosphere and is leading to rise in temperatures. This is calledEnhanced Greenhouse Effect.

Global Warming/Climate ChangeRise in temperatures of earth and other associated climatic changesas caused by the enhanced Greenhouse Effect is called “GlobalWarming” and in broader term “Climate Change”.

MAJOR GREENHOUSE GASES

Name Formula GWP (CO2 eq.)

1. Carbon- dioxide (CO2) 1

2. Methane (CH4) 21


3. Nitrous oxide (N2O) 310

5. Per- fluorocarbons (PFCs) 92,00

4. Hydro- fluorocarbons (HFCs) 11,700

6. Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) 23,900

GWP= Global Warming Potential

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS (ABRUPT SWINGS).

- More frequent and powerful cyclones and hurricanes,

- More frequent and intense floods and heavy, snowfalls,

- Severe and longer drought periods,


- Severe and longer drought periods,

- Unexpected climatic events,

- Changes in Weather Patterns,

- Short winters, earlier spring and longer summers.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (Contd…)

WATER RESOURCES

- Decrease in fresh water supply,

- Deteriorated water quality due to salt water intrusion in aquifers,


- Melting northern glaciers and polar ice,

- Rising sea levels due to melting of polar ice caps,

- Increased water loss from reservoirs due to dryness,


ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE

- Impacts on production of ecosystems,

- Shrinking habitats (forests and wetlands),

- Desertification,

- Damage to aquatic ecosystems (coral reefs, fisheries),


- Damage to aquatic ecosystems (coral reefs, fisheries),

- Shifts in the natural world (climate change impacts at least 420

physical and biological processes),

- Upward migration of plant and animal species,

- Disappearance of some plant and animal species in certain areas,

- Impact on breeding behavior,

- Change in growing season of plants and agriculture crops,

- Species extinction (some 25% of mammals and 12% of birds).


ECONOMIC IMPACTS

- Decrease in production value of ecosystems, agricultures, forests

and fisheries etc.

- Increased economic damage due to climatic catastrophes like

floods and droughts etc.

- Economic impacts due to loss of human, livestock, fisheries and

poultry health.


poultry health.

HEALTH IMPACTS

- Heat-related illnesses (heat stroke and dehydration).

- Respiratory and cardiovascular illness.

- Physical and mental stress.

- Spread of infections.

- Spread of epidemics and vector borne diseases (diarrhea, malaria).

- Contamination of drinking water and food


TOURISM

- Impacts on protected areas.- Depleted winter resorts and ski resorts.- Impacts water sports (boating and canoeing) due to shrinkage of

water bodies.- Impacts on trekking, mountaineering etc due to degraded

ecosystems.


ecosystems.

AGRICULTURE & FORESTRY

- Decrease in agriculture production due to change in temperaturewater scarcity.

- Decrease in forest production due to water availability- Increased risks of pest and pathogens.- Increase in occurrence and distribution of forest fires.- Change in vegetation zones due to change in weather (upwards shiftingof forest types).

Can this be denied…



Great Feminine in Africa (Droughts)


Food Security (Droughts)


Hurricane in Florida


Floods and Droughts

CLIMATE CHANGE FACTS FOR PAKISTAN

• 16th country most vulnerable to climate change (Maplecroft 2010)

• Losing at least 19% of GDP each year (Yale University, 2005)

• Emission share~ 0.8% of world’s total, (135th ranking)

• Temperature rise= 0.6 to 1.0°C (since early 1900s) (IPCC 2007)


• Temperature rise= 0.6 to 1.0°C (since early 1900s) (IPCC 2007)

• Temperature may further increase by 1.1 to 6.4 °C (GCISC 2009)

• Decrease in precipitation=10 to 15% (last 40 years) (IPCC 2007)

• Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years, in decrease of flows by up to 30 to 40% (GCISC 2008)

CC IMPACTS ON PAKISTAN (Contd…)

Decline in irrigated wheat yield in semi-arid areas of Pakistan isexpected to be in the range of 9 to 30% for temperature increases of 1to 4 0C.

About 80% of the nations food and fibber needs are met from irrigatedagriculture, with canal irrigation network mainly dependent on glaciers


agriculture, with canal irrigation network mainly dependent on glaciersof the Hindukush and Himalayas which are believed to be receding

over the last few decades,

These impacts are changing the hydrology of the upper Indus Basin,which has serious consequences on people living in the entire riverbasin and will result in water shortages for millions of people.

CC IMPACTS ON PAKISTAN (Contd…)

Climate change has adverse impacts on forest resources andnatural ecosystems of Pakistan. Forest lands in northern mountainareas of Pakistan would shift from one biome to another, (up-wards) which would also result in an increase in the total potentialconiferous forest area and decrease the productivity of thisprecious resource.


precious resource.

Many other that we don’t even know…

CHANGES IN NATURAL DRIVERS OF CC

CO2 concentrations have increased from 280 ppm (since 1750) to

368 ppm in 2000 (31.4%) to 379 in 2005 (35.4% rise)

CH4 concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value of

about 715 ppb to 1732 ppb in early 1990s (142% rise) and is 1774

ppb in 2005 (148% rise). The rise since 1990s is only 2.4%


ppb in 2005 (148% rise). The rise since 1990s is only 2.4%

N2O concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value of

about 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005 (18% rise). The growth rate has

been approximately constant since 1980s. More than a third of all

N2O emissions are anthropogenic and are primarily due to

agriculture

IS IT REALLY HAPPENING??


Some Glimpses…


Upsala Glacier in Argentina

1991 2006


Snow Mass in Montana

1921 2004


Rhone Glacier in Switzerland

1859 2001


Shoreline in North Carolina, USA

1999 2004


Sea Shore, Tuvalu in Pacific

1991 2006


Mount Hood in Oregon, USA

1885 2002


Mount Kilimanjaru, Tanzania

1987 2004


Tourists Resort in Carribean

1989 2007


White Spruce Trees in Alaska, USA

2003 2006

EXTREME EVENTS

Severe climatic events in Pakistan. flooding, snow on Margallah

The Great Flood of 1993 occurred in the American Midwest, alongthe Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. Damages ~ US$ 20 billion

1998 massive flooding parts of the Yangtze River in China.Damages US$ 24 billion.

2003 Southern European heat wave combined with drought to


2003 Southern European heat wave combined with drought tocreate a crop shortfall. Killing~ 35,000 people.

The 2007 South Asian floods (India, Nepal, Bhutan, andBangladesh) killing 2,000.HURRICANES

Hurricane Katrina, Rita, Charley, Jeanne, Frances in USA. ~ killingthousands and economic losses worth billions USD.Billion Dollar Climatic Disasters:

A Chronology of U.S. Eventshttp://www.livescience.com/environment/disaster_chronology_1980_2004.html

Scientific Evidence of Climate Change/Global

Warming


Warming

Global Concerns

THE GLOBAL CONCERNS

Climate change: the greatest threat of the 21st Century (UNDPHuman Development Report 2007/2008).

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has warned that climatechange poses as much of a danger to the world as war. (In his firstaddress).


Security Council holds first-ever debate on impact of climatechange (5663rd Meeting April 2007 ). called for the United Nationsto urgently consider convening a global summit. “our collectivesecurity in a fragile and increasingly interdependent world”.


IPCC Climate Change Report Shock!Published on October 16th 2007

FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF IPCC

The 4th Assessment Report of Inter- Governmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) published in 2007 indicates that:

- Global temperature rises of 2 – 4.5 0C are almost inevitable dueto increased concentration of green house gases as caused byhuman activities (fossil fuel use, land use changes etc.).


- The above global warming (or in broader term Climate Change)is expected to have serious consequences for:

Agricultural productionBiodiversityHeathSea Level rise

- Poor will be most affected by the Climate Change.

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK (GEO- 4)

GEO- 4 is the most comprehensive UN document published in2007, indicated that:

- 11 of the last 12 years (1996- 2006) are the warmest years since

1850.

- Average temperature have increased 0.74 0C during last


- Average temperature have increased 0.74 0C during last

centaury.

- Impacts include: shrinking glaciers

- Thawing permafrost earlier breakup of river ice,.

- Lengthening of growing season,

- Changes in precipitation patterns,

- Increase in frequency and intensity of heat waves,

- Storms, floods and droughts.

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT OF UNDP 2007/2008

Current concentration have reached 380 ppm of CO2e, Exceedingthe natural range of the last 650,000 years.

In the course of 21st century average global temperature could


In the course of 21 century average global temperature couldincrease by more than 5oC.

ECONOMICS CLIMATE CHANGESterns Review. Sir Nicholas Stern- 2006

Estimates that this would mean cutting total greenhouse-gasemissions to three quarters of 2007 levels. The cost of thesecuts would be in the range -1.0 to +3.5% of GDP

The GDP loss due to climate change would be between 23-


The GDP loss due to climate change would be between 23-41 % (average of global GDP)

The costs of stabilizing the climate are significant butmanageable; delay would be dangerous and much morecostly

The cost of in- action will be more that action

MITIGATION AND ADAPTATON

Mitigation of global warming involves taking actionsaimed at reducing the extent of global warming (to dowhat can be done to stop)/ through measures to avoidor reduce emissions from sources


Adaptation to global warming involves taking action tominimize the effects of global warming

Examples include; integrated water management,community resilience to disasters etc.

MITIGATION MECHANISMS-THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

Adopted in Kyoto, Japan in 1997 under the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change

The Kyoto Protocol: Aims to reduce GHG emissions by 2012 anddistinguish two types of countries:

- Annex-I countries: With binding emission targets


- Annex-I countries: With binding emission targets(41 industrialised countries):

- Non-Annex I countries: With voluntary participation(151 developing countries):

THE KYOTO PROTOCOL MITIGATION OPTIONS

- Source oriented measures

Energy conservation and efficiency improvementFossils fuel switchingRenewable energy


- Sink enhancement measures

Capture and disposal of CO2 (under discussion)Enhancement of forest sinks (limited options)

The Kyoto Protocol introduces three market based flexible mechanisms for the emissions reduction:

-- Joint Implementation (JI),

MECHANISMS UNDER THE KYOTO PROTOCOL


-- Joint Implementation (JI),

- Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ), and

- Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM)

CDM is a market based instrument under the Kyoto Protocol ofUNFCCC:

Assists developing countries in sustainable development while atthe same time contributing to the ultimate objective of theConvention.


Developed countries to support project activities that reduceGHG emissions in the developing countries in return forCertified Emission Reductions (CERs)/ Carbon Credits.

The CERs generated by such project activities can be used bydeveloped countries as credits to meet their emissions targetsunder the Protocol.

CONCEPT OF CER/ CARBON CREDITS

Developing Country (host)

GHG Emission

CERsSold to Developed country ($)

GHG

reduction


GHG Emission

Baseline Scenario CDM Project

reduction

AREAS ADDRESSED BY KYOTO PROTOCOL

The KPs emissions targets cover the six main GHGs:

Name Formula GWP (CO2 eq.)

1. Carbon- dioxide (CO2) 12. Methane (CH4) 213. Nitrous oxide (N O) 310


3. Nitrous oxide (N2O) 3105. Per- fluorocarbons (PFCs) 92,004. Hydro- fluorocarbons (HFCs) 11,7006. Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) 23,900

Sinks (carbon sequestration)

BENEFITS FROM CDM (CARBON FINANCE)

CDM Project

(e.g., alternate energy

production)

Additional

Energy

Production

Benefits to Host country(An Example)


Certified

Emission

Reductions

Direct

Foreign

Investment &

Revenue

Carbon Credits

(Developed

country Buyer) Plus other Benefits

(Jobs, Clean Env.

Tech. Transfer)

CDM INCENTIVE FOR DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Developed countries have been subjected to legallybinding emission targets…..2008/12.

Due to un-localized nature of CO2…it does not matter forenvironment where reduction occurs.


Costs of abatement or reduction of emissions :Developed Countries : U$ 50-100/ton

Developing Countries : U$ 1-10/ton

Reductions of GHG is much cheaper in developingcountries.

CDM INCENTIVES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Capitalize an “unvalued” commodity…… CER

“Additional” financing for local Sustainable Developmentpriorities and as such has potential of “Catalyzing” largeForeign Direct Investment (FDI) flows


Instrument for “appropriate” Tech. Transfer

Linkage with local environmental issues – (air pollutionetc.)

Financial viability ~ Carbon financing can increaseproject Internal Rate Returns (IRRs) between 0.5 to 50%(WB)

TYPE OF CDM PROJECTS

Unilateral, bilateral and multilateral CDM projects allowed in:

Energy- renewable/alternate energy,- energy efficiency/conservation and cogeneration

Waste Management- landfill gas capture


- landfill gas capture- recycling

Transportation- alternative fuel vehicles- mass transit systems, cleaner engines, CNG

Industrial processes (sugar, cement, fertilizer, textile)

Land, Land use and Forestry (A/F)

Agricultural and livestock practices

CLIMATE CHANGE INITIATIVES

The Country re-affirmed its commitment to meeting the objectivesof the Rio Convention at the World Summit on SustainableDevelopment (WSSD) held in Johannesburg in 2002.

Pakistan also carried out a comprehensive study for assessing theimpact of climate change in Pakistan through UNEP/Ministry ofEnvironment in 1998.


Environment in 1998.

Pakistan signed the UNFCCC as Non Annex- I Party in June 1994and it became effective for Pakistan, with effect from 30th August1994.

Pakistan has undertaken a comprehensive inventory of GHGemission sources and sinks, as well as prioritized feasiblemitigating options and formulated Least Cost Greenhouse GasAbatement Strategy (ALGAS) under the GEF/UNDP Asiacompleted in 1997.

PAKISTAN STATUS (Contd…)

Pakistan has submitted the Initial National Communication toUNFCCC in which national GHG inventory was updated andstrategy for addressing climate change concerns were developed.

Pakistan initiated the process of formulation of the Second NationalCommunication on climate change and has requested GEF for the


Communication on climate change and has requested GEF for theprovision of necessary resources.

A high level National Committee on Climate Change, chaired by thePrime Minister of Pakistan has been formed to review policies andmonitor progress on climate change initiatives in the country.

Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) has beenestablished for conducting research on impacts and adaptation toclimate change in the country.


Pakistan adopted Kyoto Protocol in 1997 acceded to it in January2005.

Pakistan established a Designated National Authority for CDM inPakistan in 2005.

A Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Cell was established in


A Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Cell was established inAug. 2005.

Pakistan National Operational Strategy for CDM has been approvedin February 2006.

Pakistan granted Host Country Approval to Twenty Three (23) CDMProjects. Four of them got registered with CDM Executive Board.

(GHG mitigation= 2.34 million tones of CO2 eqv./ yr)


The CDM Cell in the Ministry of Environment has further beenstrengthened under a Public Sector Development Programme witha total cost of Rs. 38.93 million for a period of 3 year (June 2006 toJune 2009).

The Ministry of Environment has established a Climate ChangeUnit in 2007.


Unit in 2007.

Various capacity building workshops and seminars have beenconducted by the Ministry of Environment and other nationalorganizations.

MUST WATCH….


APPRECIATING THE WORK


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Al- Gore Share the Nobel Peace Prize- 2007

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:

http://www.ipcc.ch/

Official CDM official Website:

ONLINE RESOURCES


Official CDM official Website:

www.cdm.unfccc.int

CDM Pakistan official Website:

http://cdmpakistan.gov.pk

CONTACT US

Saadullah AyazIUCN PakistanIslamabad Programme Office


Islamabad Programme OfficeH. No: 21, Street 88, G-6/[email protected]

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