Climate ChangeClimate Changeand Disaster Managementand Disaster ManagementClimate ChangeClimate Change

and Disaster Managementand Disaster Management

Prof. David AlexanderProf. David AlexanderGlobal Risk Forum Global Risk Forum -- DavosDavosProf. David AlexanderProf. David AlexanderGlobal Risk Forum Global Risk Forum -- DavosDavos

Climate change effectsClimate change effectsClimate change effectsClimate change effects

•• major population increases at coastsmajor population increases at coastswith with rising sea levelrising sea level and and land lossland loss

•• major population increases at coastsmajor population increases at coastswith with rising sea levelrising sea level and and land lossland loss

•• more extreme physical forces leadmore extreme physical forces leadto to more frequent and intensemore frequent and intense floods,floods,hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...

•• more extreme physical forces leadmore extreme physical forces leadto to more frequent and intensemore frequent and intense floods,floods,hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...

Anticipated climate change effects:Anticipated climate change effects:--Anticipated climate change effects:Anticipated climate change effects:--

hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...

•• major changes in major changes in food chainfood chain::crop production,crop production, soil erosion, etc.soil erosion, etc.

•• major changes in major changes in food chainfood chain::crop production,crop production, soil erosion, etc.soil erosion, etc.

•• disease reservoirsdisease reservoirs change geographicallychange geographically•• disease reservoirsdisease reservoirs change geographicallychange geographically

•• less available less available coastal landcoastal land..•• less available less available coastal landcoastal land..

Wind speed and hurricane damage arenon-linearly related: small increases in windspeed can lead to huge increases in damage

Mag

nitu

de

Fre

quen

cy

What does the old magnitude-frequencyrule mean in real-life situations?

Mag

nitu

de

Fre

quen

cyLogarithm ofreturn period

Magnitude

RIS

KRisk as product

Ve

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is s

ca

les:

: p

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: p

ote

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: valu

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ab

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osts

an

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sses

Falling hazard

with diminishing

probability of

occurrence

HA

ZA

RD

Rising vulnerability

with increasing

seriousness of

potential

consequencesVULNERABILIT

Y

Total annual

predicted

costs and losses

of hazard and

vulnerability

Severity

Ve

rtic

al ax

is s

ca

les:

Ha

zard

: p

rob

ab

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f o

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Vu

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po

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l d

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Ris

k:

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Fat-taileddistribution

HAZARDHAZARDHAZARDFREQ

UEN

CY

FREQ

UEN

CY

MAGNITUDEMAGNITUDE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

RIS

KRIS

K

HAZARDHAZARD

RIS

KRIS

K

RIS

KRIS

K

HAZARDHAZARD

Uniformitatianviewpoint

Uniformitatianviewpoint

Catastrophistviewpoint

Catastrophistviewpoint

Hazard or riskamplifiedby lack ofmitigation

RIS

K (R) OR

FREQ

UEN

CY O

F H

AZARD

Arb

itra

rily

def

ined

disa

ster

thr

esho

ld

Frequency /

impact level

Hazard or riskmitigated

VULNERABILITY (V) OR IMPACT LEVEL

RIS

K (R) OR

FREQ

UEN

CY O

F H

AZARD

Arb

itra

rily

def

ined

disa

ster

thr

esho

ld

World VulnerabilityWorld Vulnerabilityto Disastersto Disasters

World VulnerabilityWorld Vulnerabilityto Disastersto Disasters

Courtesy of Dr Terry CannonCourtesy of Dr Terry Cannon

Courtesy of Dr Terry CannonCourtesy of Dr Terry Cannon

ImbalancesImbalancesImbalancesImbalances

Land areaLand areaLand area

PovertyPovertyPoverty

WealthWealthWealth

PopulationPopulationPopulation

Priorities?Priorities?Priorities?Priorities?

Source: news.bbc.co.ukSource: news.bbc.co.ukSource: news.bbc.co.ukSource: news.bbc.co.uk

Katrina:Katrina:an emergencyan emergencymanagementmanagementddêêbaclebacle

Katrina:Katrina:an emergencyan emergencymanagementmanagementddêêbaclebacle

HURRICANE KATRINAHURRICANE KATRINAA balance sheet computed with hindsightA balance sheet computed with hindsight::--

•• impact scenarios ignoredimpact scenarios ignored•• forecasts shrugged offforecasts shrugged off

•• wind loading factors not taken intowind loading factors not taken intoaccount sufficiently in structural designaccount sufficiently in structural design

•• reliance on fallible structural protectionreliance on fallible structural protection

HURRICANE KATRINAHURRICANE KATRINAA balance sheet computed with hindsightA balance sheet computed with hindsight::--

•• impact scenarios ignoredimpact scenarios ignored•• forecasts shrugged offforecasts shrugged off

•• wind loading factors not taken intowind loading factors not taken intoaccount sufficiently in structural designaccount sufficiently in structural design

•• reliance on fallible structural protectionreliance on fallible structural protectionaccount sufficiently in structural designaccount sufficiently in structural design

•• reliance on fallible structural protectionreliance on fallible structural protection•• inadequate emergency planinadequate emergency plan

•• inadequate evacuationinadequate evacuationplanning and managementplanning and management

•• slow and inefficient Federal responseslow and inefficient Federal response•• Hurricane Ivan lessons not implementedHurricane Ivan lessons not implemented..

account sufficiently in structural designaccount sufficiently in structural design•• reliance on fallible structural protectionreliance on fallible structural protection

•• inadequate emergency planinadequate emergency plan•• inadequate evacuationinadequate evacuationplanning and managementplanning and management

•• slow and inefficient Federal responseslow and inefficient Federal response•• Hurricane Ivan lessons not implementedHurricane Ivan lessons not implemented..

A "classquake"A "classquake"A "classquake"A "classquake"

Squatter settlementin BangladeshSquatter settlementin Bangladesh Flood levelFlood level

Normal river levelNormal river levelNormal river levelNormal river level

Rather than mitigating the sources ofvulnerability to disaster, globalisation ismaintaining, exporting and reinforcingthem by its divide-and-rule strategies

Rather than mitigating the sources ofvulnerability to disaster, globalisation ismaintaining, exporting and reinforcingthem by its divide-and-rule strategies

Disaster risk and povertyDisaster risk and poverty

• Intensive risk: high concentrationof mortality and disaster losses

• Intensive risk: high concentrationof mortality and disaster losses

• Extensive risk: geographic dispersalof population to low-intensity risk

• Extensive risk: geographic dispersalof population to low-intensity risk

• Everyday risk: crime, political• Everyday risk: crime, political

Disaster risk and other risk:-Disaster risk and other risk:-

• Everyday risk: crime, politicalviolence, food insecurity, pollution,lack of clean water and sanitation

• Everyday risk: crime, politicalviolence, food insecurity, pollution,lack of clean water and sanitation

• Poverty: relative and absolute,leading to marginalisation

• Poverty: relative and absolute,leading to marginalisation

• Poverty and vulnerability arealmost (but not quite) synonymous.

• Poverty and vulnerability arealmost (but not quite) synonymous.

A double standard:A double standard: $$3,500,000,000 to 3,500,000,000 to save hedge funds,save hedge funds, $$100,000,000 to100,000,000 tosave the victims of Hurricane Mitchsave the victims of Hurricane Mitch

A double standard:A double standard: $$3,500,000,000 to 3,500,000,000 to save hedge funds,save hedge funds, $$100,000,000 to100,000,000 tosave the victims of Hurricane Mitchsave the victims of Hurricane Mitch

In 2005 the richIn 2005 the richcountries donatedcountries donated$4.5 billion to the$4.5 billion to thecountries affectedcountries affectedby the Indianby the IndianOcean tsunamiOcean tsunami

In 2005 the richIn 2005 the richcountries donatedcountries donated$4.5 billion to the$4.5 billion to thecountries affectedcountries affectedby the Indianby the IndianOcean tsunamiOcean tsunami

At the same time,At the same time,the U.N. was the U.N. was notnot

able to raiseable to raise$30 million for the$30 million for the

major crisis in Dafurmajor crisis in Dafur

At the same time,At the same time,the U.N. was the U.N. was notnot

able to raiseable to raise$30 million for the$30 million for the

major crisis in Dafurmajor crisis in Dafur

Vulnerability

TotalTotal: life : life isisgenerallygenerallyprecariousprecarious

TotalTotal: life : life isisgenerallygenerallyprecariousprecarious

NewlyNewlygeneratedgenerated::causedcaused bybychangeschanges inincircumstancescircumstances

NewlyNewlygeneratedgenerated::causedcaused bybychangeschanges inincircumstancescircumstances

EconomicEconomic::people people lacklackadequateadequateoccupationoccupation

EconomicEconomic::people people lacklackadequateadequateoccupationoccupation

TechnologicalTechnologicalTechnologicalTechnologicalVulnerability

ResidualResidual: : causedcaused bybylacklack ofof modernisationmodernisationResidualResidual: : causedcaused bybylacklack ofof modernisationmodernisation

DelinquentDelinquent::causedcaused bybycorruptioncorruption,,negligencenegligence,,etc.etc.

DelinquentDelinquent::causedcaused bybycorruptioncorruption,,negligencenegligence,,etc.etc.

TechnologicalTechnologicaltechnocratictechnocratic::causedcaused bybythe the riskinessriskinessofof technologytechnology

TechnologicalTechnologicaltechnocratictechnocratic::causedcaused bybythe the riskinessriskinessofof technologytechnology

Disaster ManagementDisaster Managementin a Changing Worldin a Changing WorldDisaster ManagementDisaster Managementin a Changing Worldin a Changing World

The components of risk

Physical disaster

Magnitude

Frequency

Duration

ExpositionLocation of hazard

Environment

Human vulnerability

Environment

ResistanceLifestyle and earnings

Health

Resilience

Adjustments

Risk reduction activities

Preparations for disaster

After Ian Davis (2005)After Ian Davis (2005)

HazardHazard x x VulnerabilityVulnerability x x ExposureExposure= = RiskRisk →→ DisasterDisaster

HazardHazard x x VulnerabilityVulnerability x x ExposureExposure= = RiskRisk →→ DisasterDisaster

HazardHazard x x WASTEWASTE x x ExposureExposure= = RiskRisk →→ DisasterDisaster

HazardHazard x x WASTEWASTE x x ExposureExposure= = RiskRisk →→ DisasterDisaster

Trends in disaster losses are unsustainable.Over the period 1950-2000 the world

saw increases of:

• 250% in the number of recorded disasters

• 500% in number of disasters with victims

• 500% in the number of affected people

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Economic losses in disasters

0

20

40

60

80

100

U.S

$ b

illio

n

152 bn US$

• 500% in the number of affected people

• 1640% in the costof insured damage.

• 1500% in the totalcost of disasters

Then (1950s) Now (2011)

Under-reporting of disasters

More complete recording

Counting only direct effects

Quantifying indirect effects

Smaller population of hazardous places

Larger population, greater densitieshazardous places greater densities

Less inequality Growing inequality and

marginalisation

Less fixed capital at risk

Relentless accumulation of fixed capital

Simpler socio-economic networks

More complex networks

Civil DefenceCivil DefenceCivil DefenceCivil DefenceCivil ProtectionCivil Protection

InstabilityInstabilitythreatsthreats

ComplexComplexhazardshazards

EvolvingEvolvingstrategicstrategicsituationsituation

EvolvingEvolvingstrategicstrategicsituationsituation

LargeLargetechnologicaltechnological

hazardshazards

LargeLargetechnologicaltechnological

hazardshazards

'Na'Na--tech'tech'(hybrid)(hybrid)

'Na'Na--tech'tech'(hybrid)(hybrid)

Civil ProtectionCivil Protection

EnhancedEnhancednatural hazardsnatural hazards

NaturalNaturalhazardshazards

EvolvingEvolvingclimateclimatechangechange

EvolvingEvolvingclimateclimatechangechange

(hybrid)(hybrid)hazardshazards(hybrid)(hybrid)hazardshazards

MajorMajorgeophysicalgeophysical

eventsevents

MajorMajorgeophysicalgeophysical

eventsevents

Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part of stateson the part of states

Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part of stateson the part of states

Civil defenceCivil defence

Natural disastersNatural disastersNatural disastersNatural disasters

Civil protectionCivil protection

"Homeland security"(civil defence)

"Homeland security"(civil defence)Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part ofon the part of

groups of dissidentsgroups of dissidents

Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part ofon the part of

groups of dissidentsgroups of dissidents

"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters

"Civil contingencies"(resilience)

"Civil contingencies"(resilience)

Naturaldisasters

Techno-logical

disasters

Socialdisasters

Inten-tional

disasters

Natural AnthropogenicNatural Anthropogenic

Civildefence

Civil

"Civilcontingencies"

Civilprotection

"Homeland Security"

"Civil"Civilcontingencies"contingencies"managementmanagement

"Civil"Civilcontingencies"contingencies"managementmanagement

CivilCivilprotectionprotection

CivilCivilprotectionprotection

TheThesecuritysecurityindustryindustry

TheThesecuritysecurityindustryindustry

Emergenciesand disasters

"Homeland"Homelandsecurity"security"

"Homeland"Homelandsecurity"security"

BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuity

managementmanagement

BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuity

managementmanagementComplexComplexemergenciesemergencies

ComplexComplexemergenciesemergencies

Emergenciesand disasters

HomelandHomelandHomelandHomeland

Civil protectionCivil protection::what degree ofwhat degree ofpolitical support?political support?

Civil protectionCivil protection::what degree ofwhat degree ofpolitical support?political support?

What role forWhat role forthe the securitysecurityindustryindustry ininthe generalthe generalemergency?emergency?

What role forWhat role forthe the securitysecurityindustryindustry ininthe generalthe generalemergency?emergency?

What are theWhat are thelimits of limits of civilcivilcontingenciescontingenciesmanagementmanagement??

Emergenciesand disastersHomelandHomeland

securitysecurity::is reductionis reduction

in civil libertiesin civil libertiesacceptable?acceptable?

HomelandHomelandsecuritysecurity::

is reductionis reductionin civil libertiesin civil liberties

acceptable?acceptable?

WhatWhatrelationshiprelationshipof of businessbusinesscontinuitycontinuity

managementmanagementwith civilwith civil

authorities?authorities?

WhatWhatrelationshiprelationshipof of businessbusinesscontinuitycontinuity

managementmanagementwith civilwith civil

authorities?authorities?

Complex emergenciesComplex emergencies::How much aid fromHow much aid fromdonor countries?donor countries?

Complex emergenciesComplex emergencies::How much aid fromHow much aid fromdonor countries?donor countries?

Emergenciesand disasters

HazardHazardmonitoring &monitoring &forecastingforecastingDisasterDisaster

managementmanagement

MajorMajorincidentincident

PoliciesPoliciesPlansPlansProceduresProcedures

Human &Human &materialmaterial

PopulationPopulation(community)(community)protectionprotection

incidentincidentmanagementmanagement

IncidentIncidentmanagementmanagement

ProceduresProceduresProtocolsProtocols

materialmaterialresourcesresources

Resilience andResilience andSustainabilitySustainabilityResilience andResilience andSustainabilitySustainability

An asset is notAn asset is notvulnerable unlessvulnerable unlessit is it is threatenedthreatenedby somethingby something

A hazard is notA hazard is nothazardous unlesshazardous unless

it it threatensthreatenssomethingsomething

RISKRISK

Resilience

VulnerabilityVulnerabilityVulnerabilityVulnerabilityHazardHazardHazardHazard RISKRISKExtremeExtremeeventsevents

ElementsElementsat riskat risk

Exposure

DRRDRR

KnowledgeKnowledge of of communitycommunityvulerabilityvulerability

KnowledgeKnowledgeof hazardsof hazardsandand their their impactsimpacts

DRRDRR

KnowledgeKnowledgeof copingof coping

capacitycapacity andandresilienceresilience

DisasterDisasterRiskRisk

ReductionReduction

Disaster riskDisaster risk

Population(community)protection

Plans,procedures,protocols

Plans,procedures,protocols

Disaster riskDisaster riskreductionreduction

Incidentmanagement

Incidentmanagement

Humanand materialresources

Humanand materialresources

Hazardforecasting,monitoring,

etc.

Hazardforecasting,monitoring,

etc.

needs to be shortenedneeds to belengthened

preparationfor thenext event

warning Reconstruction

repair ofbasic

services

Emergencymanagement

impactimpact servicesimpactimpact

Sustainable reduction of risks and impacts

SustainableSustainable emergencyemergency management:management:--SustainableSustainable emergencyemergency management:management:--

•• isis centredcentred uponupon the the locallocal levellevel((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))

•• isis centredcentred uponupon the the locallocal levellevel((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))

•• hashas the the supportsupport andandinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulation

•• hashas the the supportsupport andandinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulationinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulationinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulation

•• is based on is based on plansplans that are fullythat are fullydisseminated and frequently reviseddisseminated and frequently revised

•• is based on is based on plansplans that are fullythat are fullydisseminated and frequently reviseddisseminated and frequently revised

•• is a fundamental, everyis a fundamental, every--day day serviceservicefor the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..

•• is a fundamental, everyis a fundamental, every--day day serviceservicefor the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..

Attitude:Attitude:•• positive outlookpositive outlook•• ingenious approachesingenious approaches•• searching for solutionssearching for solutions•• involving other peopleinvolving other people

Attitude:Attitude:•• positive outlookpositive outlook•• ingenious approachesingenious approaches•• searching for solutionssearching for solutions•• involving other peopleinvolving other people

RESILIENCERESILIENCERESILIENCERESILIENCE

RedundancyRedundancy•• expensive but worthwhileexpensive but worthwhileRedundancyRedundancy•• expensive but worthwhileexpensive but worthwhile

Preparedness:Preparedness:•• emergency plansemergency plans•• monitoring & forecastingmonitoring & forecasting•• warning & evacuationwarning & evacuation•• public informationpublic information

Preparedness:Preparedness:•• emergency plansemergency plans•• monitoring & forecastingmonitoring & forecasting•• warning & evacuationwarning & evacuation•• public informationpublic information

•• expensive but worthwhileexpensive but worthwhile•• alternative solutionsalternative solutions•• extra capacityextra capacity

•• expensive but worthwhileexpensive but worthwhile•• alternative solutionsalternative solutions•• extra capacityextra capacity

TotalTotalvulnerabilityvulnerability

Risk perceptionRisk perceptionfactorsfactors

Risk perceptionRisk perceptionfactorsfactors-- ++

positivepositivenegativenegative

RiskRiskamplificationamplification

factorsfactors

RiskRiskamplificationamplification

factorsfactors

RiskRiskmitigationmitigationfactorsfactors

RiskRiskmitigationmitigationfactorsfactors

TotalTotalvulnerabilityvulnerability

DIALECTICDIALECTICDIALECTICDIALECTIC

Linkages

MitigationMitigationand riskreduction

PreparationPreparationand

warning

Integrationthrough planning

and training

Emergencyaction

RecoveryRecoveryand

reconstruction

Intensive riskIntensive riskIntensive riskIntensive risk

Extensive riskExtensive riskExtensive riskExtensive riskUnd

erly

ing

Und

erly

ing

Und

erly

ing

Und

erly

ing

risk

risk

drive

rsdrive

rse.

g. v

ulne

rabili

tye.

g. v

ulne

rabili

ty

Global

drive

rsGlobal

drive

rsGlobal

drive

rsGlobal

drive

rse.

g. w

eak

gove

rnan

cee.

g. w

eak

gove

rnan

ce

Disas

ter

Disas

ter

Disas

ter

Disas

ter

impa

cts

impa

cts

Everyday riskEveryday riskEveryday riskEveryday risk

PovertyPovertyPovertyPoverty

Und

erly

ing

Und

erly

ing

Und

erly

ing

Und

erly

ing

risk

risk

e.g.

vulne

rabili

tye.

g. v

ulne

rabili

ty

Global

drive

rsGlobal

drive

rsGlobal

drive

rsGlobal

drive

rse.

g. w

eak

gove

rnan

cee.

g. w

eak

gove

rnan

ce

Pove

rty

Pove

rty

Pove

rty

Pove

rty

outc

omes

outc

omes

Disaster risk and povertyDisaster risk and poverty

•• governancegovernance: the action or: the action ormanner of governing (OED)manner of governing (OED)

•• governancegovernance: the action or: the action ormanner of governing (OED)manner of governing (OED)

•• participatory democracyparticipatory democracy and usingand usingthe concept of stakeholdersthe concept of stakeholders

•• participatory democracyparticipatory democracy and usingand usingthe concept of stakeholdersthe concept of stakeholders

Conclusions: what we need:Conclusions: what we need:Conclusions: what we need:Conclusions: what we need:

•• transparencytransparency, freedom from corruption,, freedom from corruption,economic probity and good governmenteconomic probity and good government•• transparencytransparency, freedom from corruption,, freedom from corruption,economic probity and good governmenteconomic probity and good government

•• the importance of protecting the importance of protecting livelihoodslivelihoods•• the importance of protecting the importance of protecting livelihoodslivelihoods

•• linkinglinking the disaster risk reduction agendathe disaster risk reduction agendato the climate change adaptation oneto the climate change adaptation one..

•• linkinglinking the disaster risk reduction agendathe disaster risk reduction agendato the climate change adaptation oneto the climate change adaptation one..

•• to have a to have a political profilepolitical profile•• to have a to have a political profilepolitical profile

•• to be to be adaptableadaptable to rapid andto rapid andprofound changes in politicalprofound changes in politicalpriorities, environmental andpriorities, environmental and

•• to be to be adaptableadaptable to rapid andto rapid andprofound changes in politicalprofound changes in politicalpriorities, environmental andpriorities, environmental and

The disaster manager needs...The disaster manager needs...

priorities, environmental andpriorities, environmental anddemographic circumstancesdemographic circumstancespriorities, environmental andpriorities, environmental anddemographic circumstancesdemographic circumstances

•• to to monitormonitor the climate changethe climate changeagenda, science and debateagenda, science and debate

•• to to monitormonitor the climate changethe climate changeagenda, science and debateagenda, science and debate

•• to ensure that his or herto ensure that his or herprogrammes are programmes are sustainablesustainable..

•• to ensure that his or herto ensure that his or herprogrammes are programmes are sustainablesustainable..

Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you for your for your attention!attention!

Thank you Thank you for your for your attention!attention!