Conceptual Framework

Project Papers for Further Reference Haynie, A. and L. Pfeiffer. 2012. “Why economics matters for

understanding the effects of climate change on fisheries.” ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69(7): 1160-1167.

Pfeiffer, L. and A. Haynie. 2012. “The Effect of Decreasing Seasonal Sea Ice Cover on the Bering Sea Pollock Fishery.” ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69(7), 1148–1159.

Haynie, A.. and L. Pfeiffer. 2013. “Climatic and economic drivers of the Bering Sea pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) fishery: Implications for the future .” Under review.

Climate change and fisher behavior in the Bering Sea pollock trawl and Pacific cod longline fisheries Alan Haynie1 and Lisa Pfeiffer2

1 Resource Ecology and Fisheries Management Division, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA • Seattle, WA 2 Fishery Resource Analysis and Monitoring Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA • Seattle, WA

Ongoing Research

The recommendations and general content presented in this poster do not necessarily represent the views or official position of the Department of Commerce, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or the National Marine Fisheries Service.

The two largest commercial fisheries in the US Bering Sea are the pollock and Pacific cod fisheries. In this paper, we build upon work that independently examined the impact of climate change on the pollock and Pacific cod fisheries. We examine how both fisheries have adjusted to economic and environmental variation since 2000 as well as environmental variation for the previous decade. This poster summarizes key results from this component of the Best-BSIERP Bering Sea Project.

Methods 1. Create a general conceptual framework for explaining the pathways through which climate impacts fisheries. 2. Integrate available data to be able to examine the primary relationships among the factors that affect fishing behavior. 3. Evaluate the fisheries’ responses to observed variation in 1) catch rates, 2) biomass, 3) prices, 4) observed climate variation. 4. Where appropriate, forecast the implications of these observed relationships on the fisheries with predicted future warming

of the Bering Sea.

Data include NMFS observer records and biomass surveys from 1991-2010, with economic data available beginning in 2002. Warm years include 1993, 1998, and 2001-2005; cold years include 1992, 1994-1995, 1997, 1999, and 2007-2010.

Introduction

bsierp.nprb.org BEST-BSIERP Bering Sea Project

Research on the relationship between climate, economic factors, the spatial behavior of fisheries, and management institutions in the Bering sea pollock and BSAI Pacific cod fisheries continues.

Ongoing research includes: •  Refining spatial models of the fisheries and

utilizing them as case studies for the Fisheries Spatial Economics Toolbox (FishSET).

•  Assessing how the institution of cooperative management in the Pacific cod fishery impacts fishing behavior and metrics of fishery performance.

•  Presenting work to other scientists and stakeholders.

•  Completing additional manuscripts from the project.

Acknowledgements: This work was funded by NPRB and AFSC.

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Estimated fishable biomass Normalized fishery CPUE

Winter Pacific cod fishery: Relationships between survey abundance and fishery CPUE and climate regime and fishery CPUE. Fishery CPUE is higher when total abundance is lower and higher in cold regime years. It is also higher in months when there is a cold pool.

Key Finding # 1 Key Finding # 2 Key Finding # 3

Average values for Cold years

Warm years

Difference significant?

Km traveled/ trip 1,817 2,184 yes km/ton of catch 20.4 29.2 yes number of sets 33.0 39.4 yes

The “march to the north” is not a consistent story. •  Vessels trade off costs and benefits of fishing in

different areas. Spatial differences in prices and cold-pool-related catch rates provide mixed evidence of a northward shift in fishing effort.

Vessels have many means by which to adapt to changes in fishing conditions that may be related to climate variation.

•  Location of fishing •  Timing of fishing •  Amount of travel •  Haul/set-level choices (e.g., fishing speed, soak/

trawl time, number of hooks).

Significant uncertainty remains about how future changes may impact these fisheries. •  The variation in historical data in climate

conditions and fish abundance suggests a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in future warm, low-abundance conditions that are expected to occur with greater frequency.

•  Trends may change with management institutions.

Institutions matter. Changes in management such as catch shares (which occurred with Pacific cod in 2010) or protected species restrictions have large impacts on fishing behavior. Predicting future interactions between management changes and climate-related variation is challenging.

Effect of environmental characteristics on the distribution of fishing effort. Arrows represent the direction of causality, and the solid numbered lines represent mechanisms investigated in Haynie & Pfeiffer 2013. Dashed and dotted lines are mechanisms that we do not model explicitly, either because they are environmental or biological mechanisms, or because data are insufficient to test them. Dotted lines represent non-contemporaneous mechanisms.

Pollock catcher-processor fleet: No shift in the distribution of the fishery is observed in the winter A-season, due apparently to where valuable roe are located but a northward shift has occurred in the summer B-season. This northward shift is correlated with colder conditions in the latter part of the decade. Points above represent the catch-weighted mean center of the distribution of fishing hauls.

Pollock: Summary of the 1999-2009 observed effects of the size of the cold pool and pollock abundance on the intensity of early winter A-season fishing effort, summer B-season CPUE, B-season fishing effort, and B-season travel costs.

Example, Pacific cod: Warmer conditions resulted in costly adaptations: vessels traveled farther and set their gear more times during a trip in warm years. This suggests that costs in this fishery may increase with warmer climate conditions.

Example, Pacific cod: Frequency of vessel moves in cold versus warm years. Persistence of vessels in a fishing area is lower in warm years. This is an adaptation to lower quality fishing due to a lower concentration of Pacific cod caused by a small cold pool in warm years.