climate change and food security-global and regional challenges facing cop21
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change and Food SecurityGlobal and regional challenges facing COP21
Keith WiebeSenior Research Fellow, IFPRI
Washington DC, 10 November 2015
• IMPACT – an integrated modeling system to assess agricultural and food security scenarios
• Collaboration with all 15 CGIAR centers through GFSF
• Collaboration with other global economic modeling groups through AgMIP
Climate and socioeconomic drivers
Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)
Source: Downloaded from the RCP Database version 2.0.5 (2015). RCP 2.6: van Vuuren et al. 2006; van Vuuren et al. 2007. RCP 4.5: Clark et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al 2009. RCP 6.0: Fujino et al 2006; Hijioka et al 2008. RCP 8.5: Riahi and Nakicenovic, 2007.
CO2 eq. (ppm)Radiative forcing(W/m2)
Population (billion) GDP (trillion USD, 2005 ppp)Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)
Growth in global cereal production (SSP2, NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
Rainfed maize and climate change: Projected yield changes in 2050, before economic responses (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)
Source: IFPRI DSSAT simulations
Climate change impacts on yields, by region (SSP2, 2010=1.00)
Cereals
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Climate change impacts on yields, by region (SSP2, 2010=1.00)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Cereals Oilseeds
Pulses Roots & Tubers
Climate and socioeconomic drivers –impacts on prices
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
SSPs
RC
Ps
Cereals Meats
Growth in total global demand(SSP2, NoCC)
20
10
= 1
.0
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
Composition of food supply(SSP2 NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Net trade and climate change(SSP2, RCP8.5)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Mill
ion
met
ric
ton
s
Cereals
Population at risk of hunger(SSP2, RCP8.5)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Exploring the impacts of improved technologies and practices on…
-40.0
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Malnourished Children Pop. at-risk-of-hunger
No till Drought tolerance Heat tolerance
Nitrogen use efficiency Integrated soil fertility mgt Precision agriculture
Water harvesting Sprinkler irrigation Drip irrigation
Crop Protection - insects
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)
Food Security(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)
Source: Islam et al. (draft)
Crop yields(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)
Conclusions
• Significant impacts at global and regional scales, reducing gains in productivity and food security
• Significant differences across regions, crops, scenarios
• Economic responses reduce biophysical impacts
• These depend critically on policy and market conditions –and decisions
• Significant challenges for decision makers at all levels
