climate change and glacier retreat in the swiss alps

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps – impact on Alpiq

hydropower sector

Marco Cortesi, Alpiq-Hydro Power Generation

27th of September, Lima, Peru

• Active in more than 20 European countries• Around 8’300 employees (Energy Services:

6,900) • Revenue: CHF 6’715 Million • Installed capacity: approximately 6’300 MW• Generation: approximately 17’800 GWh (67

% in Switzerland) • Supplies one third of Switzerland with

electricity• Holding Company headquarters in Lausanne

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Alpiq at a glance

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Organigramm

General ManagementJasmin Staiblin 1

CEO

Energy ServicesReinhold Frank 1

Alpiq InTec (AIT) Peter Limacher

Kraftanlagen GruppeReinhold Frank

GenerationMichael Wider 1

Deputy CEO

Hydro Power GenerationChristian Plüss

Nuclear PowerGeneration Michaël Plaschy

Thermal Power GenerationMatthias Zwicky

RES & Generation DevelopmentAndré Schnidrig a.i

Commerce & Trading Markus Brokhof 1

Markets Central Eastern and South Eastern EuropePeter Dworak

Power WestPierre Guesry

Cross Commodity Trading & OriginationMichel Kolly

OperationsPetter Torp

Financial ServicesThomas Bucher 1

CFO

Accounting & Controlling Edgar Lehrmann

TaxesEva Catillon

Finance Projects &TransformationMartin Schindler

Treasury & Insurance Lukas Oetiker

Legal & CompliancePeter Schib

Human ResourcesDaniel Huber

Information Technology Thomas Habel

Communication & Public AffairsRichard Rogers a.i

Risk Management Walter Hollenstein

General Management

Business division

Functional division

Business unit

1) Member of the Executive BoardFunctional unit

Hydro Power GenerationAlpiq – specialist of alpine Hydro Power

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 6

Key activities in Hydro Power

• Asset management of 24 hydropower plants of high

flexibility with a total installed capacity of 3000 MW

(23% of installed capacity in Switzerland)

• Project Management of large extension and

maintenance (e.g. Nant de Drance 900 MW, FMHL+

240 MW)

• Operation and Maintenance of many hydropower

plants with own staff respective with sub company

Hydro Exploitation SA

• Portfolio Optimisation with extraordinary insight of

European energy markets

• Environmental management and climate change

impact mitigation (glacier retreat)

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Alpiq Hydropower in Europe

FranceExisting hydropowerSmall hydropower 2.25 MW

SwitzerlandExisting hydropowerHydropower 2876 MWSmall hydropower 4.8 MW

Hydropower under constructionHydropower 584 MW

Small hydropower 2 MWItalyExisting hydropowerSmall hydropower (3) 9.45 MW

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016

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Portfolio of 39 hydropower plants in Switzerland


Investments for future:pump storage projects FMHL+

Investment volume ca.: 330 mio CHF

Start operation: 2016 (tests ongoing)

Capacity: a new 240 MW (total 480 MW)

Equipment: 2 x 4 Pelton turbines

Annual production: 1’000 GWh


Investments for the futurePump storage projects: Nate de Drance

Installed capacity: 900 MW

Investment volume ca.: 2 bl. CHF

Start operation: 2018

Equipment: 6 Francis pump turbines

Annual production: 2’500 GWh

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• 100 km of tunnels in a basin of 420

km2

• 50 glaciers and 80 intakes

• Surface covered by glaciers : 65 %

• Mean annual runoff 500 hm3

• Gross head: 1883 m

• Total capacity: about 2’000 MW

Alpiq – expert of alpine hydro powerGrande Dixence


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• 200 km2 catchment size

• Grosser Aletsch- glacier (largest glacier of the alps)

• Surface covered by glaciers (2009) : 56 %



Alpiq – expert of alpine hydro powerElectra Massa

• Dam height: 122 m

• Reservoir capacity: 9.2 hm3

• Surface covered by glaciers (2009) : 56 %



• Annual production: 564 GWh

• Total capacity: 340 MW

Climate ChangeImpact on Hydropower

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Impacts of climate change in the Alps

Source: Swiss Climate Change Scenarios 2011 (CH2011) Source: IPCC special report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation

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Source: «Glaciers. Passé-présent du Rhône au Mont Blanc» Editions Slatkine, 2010.

• Increase in Temperature is

happening on and will be continued in the ongoing century

• Impact on alpine catchments is already visible since many decades

Loss in glacier surface and volume

Source: Swiss Glacier Monitoring Network GLAMOS


1855

Today

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Expected changes on the mid- and long-term :

• Volumes : are there enough installed capacities (spill-over, security downstream)?

• Runoff regime: Shift of diurnal and seasonal runoff curves?

• Bed load/sediments: increase of bead load and sediment transport?

• Extreme events: Lowering the availability of power plants or parts of it?

• New potential: glacier lakes, chances and risks?

Challenges for the hydropower production under climate change conditions

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Objectives : analyse of glacier change in past and model their evolution for the 21st century. Evaluate their impact on hydropower production and the maintenance of its infrastructure .

Approach:

1. Measurement of ice-thickness, determine ice-volume.2. Modelling of future glacier evolution, as a function of several

climate scenarios.3. Modelling of future runoff evolution on a daily timescale and

basin scaled spatial resolution.

« Glacier retreat – will there be sufficient inflow for hydro power production in future? ». Scientific partners : VAW/ETH.

Project FUGE – research program in order to quantify impact on hydropower sector


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Already done(~ 70 % Alpiq)

To do

Project FUGE – studies over the Swiss Alps

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Measurement of ice-thickness on Aletsch glacier

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Maximal ice-thickness over > 800m

Measurement of ice-thickness on Aletsch glacier

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• Models:

• GERM (Glacier Evolution Runoff Model), modelling of future runoff evolution of hydropower catchments (four different modules)

• Glacier evolution module based on glacier dynamics (cfsFlow)

• High number of base data is necessary for modelling process (e.g. digital elevation models, historic runoff data, glacier thickness, etc.)

Glacier de Trift, été 2003

Modelling of runoff and glacier evolution

https://www.youtube.com/watch?x-yt-cl=84503534&v=zZ__Js5hgzw&x-yt-ts=1421914688

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Example Moiry glacier/ model calibration:

• Modelling of known glacier runoff evolution (DEM, climate data) .• Adjusting model parameter in order to match the observed evolution

as good as possible.


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Glacial system reacts highly

sensitive on changes of climate scenarios :

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-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

2046

2051

2056

2061

2066

2071

2076

2081

2086

2091

2096

2101

°C

cold – wet (1978)

hot – dry


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Gebidem dam

Evolution of Aletsch glacier

with « medium » climate scenario


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Gebidem

drought 2003

Sta

rt o

pera

tion:

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Modelling of runoff and glacier evolution Impact on sediment transport

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«Potential for future hydropower plants in

Switzerland: a systematic

analysis in the periglacial environment (PHP)» (Boes,

Funk, Ehrbar, Delaney;

ETHZ)

Quelle: Verlandungsrate Schweizer Stauseen, Daniel Ehrbar, VAW 2016

Modelling of runoff and glacier evolution Impact on sediment transport


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• Full load of turbines during one entire month in summer 2015 with 55 m3/s

• Average Massa runoff at 70 m3/s with peak runoff up to 120 m3/s

• 46% over decadal average during this Periode+ 17% over yearly average

• Water loss (spillway) of 16.6 GWh

Immediate impact on hydropower operation

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he

ad

≈ 7

50

m

Water intake«Oberaletsch»

Power house

Gebidem Gebidemdam

• Additional potential due to glacier retreat.

• Additional production of 100 GWh per year as result of climate change.

Glacier retreat leads to new potential for hydropower!

Climate change as driver of new hydropower?

New potential due to climate change?


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• Ice thickness measurements

in order to localise glacier bedrock

• Local topography discovers possible lake formation

• Again: new potential for hydropower !



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Natural lake

forming

Additional dam

of 100 m

New potential due to climate change ?

34Source: National research program 61, Project NELAK


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Glacier coverage and thickness

Glacier change: scenario for 21st century


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Scenario «median»



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What are the main impacts on hydropower of climate change in the alps:

• Capacity and position of intakes and tunnels, dams and the security

facilities are subject of changes in topography and hydrology

• Increase in capacities of turbines?

• Higher bed load and sediment transport, abrasion of turbines

• Estimation cost/benefit of potential investments

• Continuation of investigations for better understanding and in order

to take the right decisions

Conclusion


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Conclusion

What are the main impacts on hydropower of climate change in the alps:

• Capacity and position of intakes and tunnels, dams and the security

facilities are subject of changes in topography and hydrology

• Increase in capacities of turbines?

• Higher bed load and sediment transport, abrasion of turbines

• Estimation cost/benefit of potential investments

• Continuation of investigations for better understanding and in order

to take the right decisions


Thank you for your attention!

Marco Cortesi, phone +41 341 23 03 [email protected]

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climate change and glacier retreat in the swiss alps

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