climate change and global food security: impacts and policy responses

Climate Change and Global Food Security:

Impacts and Policy ResponsesMark W. Rosegrant

DirectorEnvironment and Production Technology Division

Seminar organized by the School of Economics, UP Diliman, PhilippinesJanuary 10, 2014

Outline Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food

Security Scenario Modeling Methodology Climate Change Impacts Climate Change Adaptation Costs Agricultural Research Investment Impacts Conclusions and Policy Responses

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Supply drivers• Climate change• Water and land scarcity• Investment in agricultural research• Science and technology policy

– Discovery, development, delivery– Intellectual property rights,

regulatory systems, extensionhttp://fbae.org/2009/FBAE/website/images/btcotton_rice.jpg

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2004/20040721/har.jpg

Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security

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Demand drivers• Population growth: 9 billion people in 2050• Urbanization: 2008 = 50% urban; 2050 = 78% • Income growth: Africa rising• Oil prices• Biofuels and bioenergy• GHG mitigation and carbon

sequestration • Conservation and biodiversity http://

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Rapid income growth and urbanization - effects on diets and patterns of agricultural production• Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods• Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables• Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils• Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for

grains for feed • Half of growth in grain demand will be for

livestock• Intense pressure on land and water (highly water-intensive diet)

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Scenario Modeling Methodology

Climate Change Model Components GCM climate scenarios

• Multiple GCM using IPCC SRES A1B scenario, downscaled temperature and rainfall

SPAM • Spatial distribution of crops based on crop calendars, soil

characteristics, climate of 20 most important crops

DSSAT crop model• Biophysical crop response to temp and precipitation

IMPACT• Global food supply demand model to 2050 with global

hydrology and water simulation by river basin

DSSAT Crop Models Simulate plant growth and crop yield by variety day-

by-day, in response to • Temperature• Precipitation• Soil characteristics• Applied nitrogen• CO2 fertilization

DSSAT-based simulations at crop-specific locations (using local climate, soil and topographical attributes)

Maize: 15,576 cells; Soybean: 9,930; Rice: 9,176; Wheat: 18,661

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The IMPACT Model

IMPACT – “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade”

Global partial equilibrium model Global

• 115 countries • 281 food production units (countries x river

basins)• 46 agricultural commodities

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IMPACT Model Structure Crop area is a function of crop prices, irrigation investment,

water input, climate change Yield is a function of crop price, input price, irrigation

investment, water inputs, exogenous yield growth Exogenous yield growth is a function of investment in

agricultural research, irrigation, and rural roads Food demand is a function of commodity prices, income,

and population Feed demand is a function of livestock production, feed

prices, and feeding efficiency Biofuel demand is computed based on policy mandates and

targets

Climate Change Impacts

Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate change in 2050

Overall production change in shown existing areas: -11.2%

Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

(MIROC/A1B)



Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate change in 2080

(MIROC/A1B)

Irrigated Rice: Impact of Climate Change in 2050



(MIROC/A1B)

Overall production change in shown existing areas: -16.1 %


Irrigated Rice: Impact of Climate Change in 2080

(MIROC/A1B)

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Yield changes due to climate change, 2050:Irrigated Rice

MIR/A1B: -6.2%

ECH/A1B: -6.0% CSI/A1B: -3.3%

CNR/A1B: -6.9%

Source: IFPRI

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Yield changes due to climate change, 2050:Rainfed Rice

Source: IFPRIMIR/A1B: -0.9%

ECH/A1B: +2.0% CSI/A1B: +0.9%

CNR/A1B: +0.6%

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Yield changes due to climate change, 2050:Rainfed Maize

Source: IFPRI

CNR/A1B: -22.2% ECH/A1B: -15.4%

MIR/A1B: -13.0% CSI/A1B: -10.2%

Impact on International Food Prices (2010=100)

Wheat Maize Rice0

50

100

150

200

2502010 2050 no CC 2050 CC

Average of four GCM, A1B, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios


Impact on Calorie Consumption Average of 4 GCM and 4 scenarios = 12 % decline in developing countries

South Asia

East Asia

and Pacific

Europe a

nd Cen

tral A

sia

Latin A

merica a

nd Cari

bbean

Middle East

and N

orth A

frica

Sub Saharan A

frica

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500 2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CC

kCal

/Cap

ita/d

ay


Impact on Childhood MalnutritionAverage of 4 GCM and 4 scenarios = 10% increase in developing countries

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000 2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CC

Mill

ions

of C

hild

ren


Climate Change Adaptation Costs Estimated in

IMPACT Model

Our Definition of Agricultural Adaptation

Agricultural investments that reduce child malnutrition with climate change to the level with no climate change

What types of investments considered?• Agricultural research

• Irrigation expansion and efficiency improvements

• Rural roads

Adaptation Costs are Large Required additional annual expenditure:

US$7.1 - $7.3 billion

Regional level• Sub-Saharan Africa - 40% of the total, mainly for rural

roads• South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation

efficiency • Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per

year, research• East Asia and the Pacific - US$1 billion per year,

research and irrigation efficiency

Agricultural Research Investment Impacts

Increased Investment Scenario Compared to Baseline Climate Change

Increased Investment in Agricultural R&D• Baseline assumes continuation of trend

growth, 2000-2008, in CGIAR and NARS agricultural R&D

• Increased investment scenario: Level of CGIAR and NARS investment in agricultural R&D is doubled by 2020 compared to the baseline, then baseline trend to 2030

Changes in World Prices of Crops Relative to Baseline, 2030

Commodity/Scenario Increased Investment

Rice -23.7%Wheat -13.5%Maize -9.4%Millet -20.9%Sorghum -15.6%Other Grains -7.7%

Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

Commodity/Scenario Increased Investment

Beef -14.6%

Pork -12.6%

Poultry -14.0%

Sheep & Goat -16.7%


Changes in World Prices of Meat Relative to Baseline, 2030

Commodity/Scenario Increased InvestmentsEast Asia and Pacific 22.0%

Europe and Central Asia 5.1%

Latin America and Caribbean 8.6%

Middle East and North Africa 21.6%

South Asia 21.4%

Sub-Saharan Africa 20.2%

Developed -0.9%

Developing 16.9%

World 11.2%


Changes in Cereal YieldRelative to Baseline, 2030

Commodity/Scenario Increased InvestmentsEast Asia and Pacific -4.9%

Europe and Central Asia -5.1%

Latin America and Caribbean -5.7%

Middle East and North Africa -3.4%

South Asia -5.7%

Sub-Saharan Africa -7.6%

Developed -5.6%

Developing -5.6%

World -5.6%


Changes in Cereal Crop AreaRelative to Baseline, 2030

Commodity/Scenario Increased InvestmentEast Asia and Pacific 9.8%

Europe and Central Asia 10.5%

Latin America and Caribbean 8.6%

Middle East and North Africa 9.2%

South Asia 8.9%

Sub-Saharan Africa 9.1%

Developed -2.0%

Developing 9.4%

World 6.0%


Changes in Production of MeatRelative to Baseline, 2030

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South Asia -4.2%


Developed -5.6%

Developing -7.1%

World -6.9%


Impact on Number of Malnourished Children Relative to Baseline, 2030

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South Asia -32.2%


Developed -7.0%

Developing -26.0%

World -24.9%


Impact on Population at Risk of Hunger

Relative to Baseline, 2030

Conclusions and Policy Responses

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Agriculture’s Role is Critical part of the PROBLEM and part of the SOLUTION

Source: Farming First 2012 with data from IWMI; UK Foresight Project; WRI; CIA, World Bank; ILO and FAO (clockwise)

• Majority of the world’s farms are small

• Small farmers represent bulk of world’s poor and 50% of world’s hungry (Hazell et al. 2007)

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Building Sustainable Productivity Growth and Resilient Agricultural and Food Systems

1. Accelerate investments in agricultural R&D for productivity growth

2. Invest in climate-smart agriculture

3. Promote complementary policies and investments

4. Reform economic policies

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Invest in technologies for Crop and livestock breeding

• High-yielding varieties• Biotic- and abiotic-stress

resistant varieties Modernize crop water productivity

breeding programs in developing countries through provision of genomics, high throughput gene-sequencing, bio-informatics and computer

GMOs where genetic variation does not exist in the crop • Nitrogen use efficiency• Drought, heat and salinity

tolerance• Insect and disease resistance

+

1. Accelerate Investments in Agricultural R&D for smallholder productivity

Global public spending on agric. R&D, 2008 (%)

Source: ASTI 2012

2. Invest in Climate-smart Agriculture“triple wins” - productivity, adaptation, mitigation

CROP MANAGEMENT PRACTICE PRODUCTIVITY IMPACTS ADAPTATION BENEFITS GHG MITIGATION

POTENTIAL

Improved crop varieties or types

Increased crop yields & reduced yield variability

Increased resilience against climate change

Increased soil carbon storage

Improved crop rotation/fallowing/rotation with legumes

Increased soil fertility & yields due to nitrogen fixing in soils

Improved soil fertility & water holding capacity increases resilience to climate change

High mitigation potential, esp. crop rotation with legumes

Use of cover crops

Increased yields due to erosion control & reduced nutrient leaching

Improved soil fertility & water holding capacity increases resilience

High mitigation potential through increased soil carbon sequestration

Appropriate use of fertilizer and manure

Higher yields Improved productivity increases resilience to climate change

High mitigation potential, esp. where fertilizer has been underutilized

Source: Bryan et al. 2011

Potential Synergies between productivity, climate change adaptation, and GHG mitigation

3. Promote Complementary Policies and Investments

Invest in rural infrastructure and irrigation Increase access to high-value supply chains and

markets e.g. fruits, vegetables, and milk Promote farmer-friendly innovations

• Financial and information services e.g. community banking, ICTs

• Farming systems: minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management, integrated pest management, precision agriculture

• Institutional arrangements e.g. producer cooperatives

Support open trading regimes to share climate risk

Use market-based approaches to manage water and environmental services combined with secure property rights

Reduce subsidies that distort production decisions and encourage water use beyond economically appropriate levels• Fertilizer, energy, water subsidies• Savings invested in activities that boost farm

output and income

4. Reform Economic Policies

climate change and global food security: impacts and policy responses

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income growth

oilsrapid growth

crop yield

food securitywww

agricultural researchscience

function of crop prices

feed half of growth

climate change yield