climate change and habitat plans: federal policy and funding

© Tom Klare© Tom Klare

Climate Change and Habitat Plans:Federal policy and funding

Mark Kramer, The Nature Conservancy

11/18/09


Federal climate policy fundamentals

• Emission reduction– Cap and Trade– Energy Efficiency– Unregulated sectors

• Sequestration– Forest carbon– Other

• Adaptation– Human systems– Natural systems


To what are we adapting? Current Temperature and Observed Ecosystem Impacts

At the

Current 0.7°C

(1.3°F, 385 ppmv CO2e),

Impacts Are Measurable,

Significant and

Comprehensive

● Glacier and Polar Ice Cap Loss● Sea Level Rise● Species Movement● Increase in Growing Season Length● Increased Frequency and Magnitude of

Extreme Events (Drought and Storms)

To what are we adapting?: Trajectory of Global CO2 Emissions

IPCC SRES growth rates in

% per year for

2000-2010:

A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71A1T: 1.63A2: 2.13B1: 1.79B2: 1.61

Recent emissions

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s (G

tC y

-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s (G

tC y

-1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

Observed: 3.5%from 2000-2007

Actual: 0.9%from 1900-2000

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Updated with data from CDIAC

20062005

20072008


To what are we adapting?: Temperature Thresholds and Projected Ecosystem Impacts

At 3°C (5.4°F, 550 ppmv CO2e)● Several Meters of Sea Level Rise● Widespread Coral Mortality● 50% of Permafrost Thaws

IPCC. 2007. Working Group II: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation

At 2°C (3.6°F, 450 ppmv CO2e)● Retreat of Greenland and Antarctic Ice● Increased Damage from Floods and Storms● Most Corals Bleached

At 4°C (7.2°F, 650 ppmv CO2e)● Mid-Latitude Glaciers Disappear● Major Extinctions Around the Globe● Terrestrial Biosphere Becomes Net Carbon Source

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Summer High Temperatures (F)

An

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fall

(in

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)

San Francisco

San Diego

Los Angeles

Sacramento

Bakersfield

20th Century Observations

To what are we adapting?

Summer High Temperature

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An

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2070-2099 B1 Scenario Projections, 2°C

20th Century Observations


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An

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Monterey

San Diego

Los Angeles

Sacramento

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2070-2099 A2 Scenario Projections , 3°C2070-2099 B1 Scenario Projections , 2°C20th Century Observations


Adaptation

Low Med High Unprece-dentedStress

Unc

erta

inty

Hig

hL

ow

Drought stress

2°C emissions scenario

Drought stress3°C emissions scenario

Heat stress 2°C emissions scenario

Heat stress3°C emissions scenario

2°C

3°C

Climate Stress Index

Conservation planning more complicated – shifts, sources, sinks and connections

2°CCurrent 3°C

Protected area withcurrent climate space, source at 2°C and 3°C

Protected area climate space at 2°C,Sink at 2°C

Current climate space of protected area

Protected area climate space at 3°CSink at 3°C

Region

Connectivity

Fragmentationupslope

nort

hw

ard


BIODIVERSITY SECURITYIN CALIFORNIA

Mount Hamilton

Drought Stress Index

Medium Change, Low Uncertainty

Heat Stress Index

High Change, Low Uncertainty

Mount Hamilton Project


Ahead of the Curve:Role of NCCPs on ground

NCCPs Protect:

• Core habitat areas

• Corridors

• Buffers


Federal Legislation: State of Play

House has passed Waxman-Markey billAdaptation section drafted by House Natural Resources Committee

“Discharged” by EPW committeeS. 1733 Kerry/ Boxer bill“Clean Energy, Jobs and American Power”

Act

Recently introduced:S. 1933

Bingaman/Baucus/Whitehouse/Udall“Natural Resources Climate Adaptation

Act”


Beyond the False Dichotomy:Nature and People

Resilient natural resources provide us with the food, clean water, shelter and income we all rely upon for survival.


Why do we care?:“Ecosystem Services”

In general.—The term “ecosystem services” means the provision, by a healthy ecosystem, of natural resources to improve human health and livelihood.


Out of the mouths of Senators:

Inclusions.—The term “ecosystem services” includes—

(i) a clean and abundant water supply;

(ii) carbon storage;(iii) biodiversity;(iv) pollination services;(v) wildlife habitat;(vi) recreation; and(vii) a scenic or historic

landscape.


What do we do?:Natural Resources Adaptation

Natural resources.—The term “natural resources” means land, wildlife, fish, air, water, estuaries, plants, habitats, and ecosystems.

Natural resources adaptation.—The term “natural resources adaptation” means the protection, restoration, and conservation of natural resources so that natural resources become more resilient, adapt to, and withstand the ongoing and expected impacts of climate change.


Adaptation Provisions in Federal legislation

Planning • Federal• State

Funding• Domestic

– States – Federal agencies

• International

Provides data and science to inform

Natural Resources Climate Change Adaptation PanelEstablished no later than 90 days after enactmentChair – Chair of CEQMembers (heads of the following:)•NOAA, USFS, NPS, USFWS, BLM, USGS, BOR, BIA, EPA, Army

Corps and FEMA Natural Resources

Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

• No later than one year after enactment.• An overarching national strategy “to protect, restore, and conserve natural resources to enable them to become more resilient, adapt to, and withstand impacts of climate change and ocean acidification.• Federal agency and state plans must be consistent with national strategy.• Reviewed and updated every 5 years.

The President

State Natural Resources Adaptation Plans*No later than one year after National Adaptation Strategy

*Required to get funding under this act.

CEQ advises on:• Nat’l Resources Climate Change Adaptation Strategy• Fed. agency plans

Federal Agency

Adaptation Plans

No later than one year after National Adaptation Strategy

Agencies develop

Develops (in coordination with Panel)

Consistency

Science Advisory Board• Established no later than 180 days after enactment• 10-20 expert members

Natural Resource Climate Change Adaptation Science and Information

No later than 90 days after enactment

Secretary of Interior(through USGS)National Global Warming and Wildlife Science Center

Sec. of Commerce(through NOAA)National Climate Service

Appoint

Coordination

Approves

ApprovesAdvise Appoint


Role of HCPs/NCCPs in legislation:Planning(e) Coordination With Other Plans.—The

State plan shall, if appropriate, integrate the goals and measures set forth in other natural resources conservation strategies established pursuant to applicable law (including regulations), including—

(7) recovery plans for threatened species and endangered species under section 4(f) of the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (16 U.S.C. 1533(f));

(8) habitat conservation plans under section 10 of that Act (16 U.S.C. 1539)


Role of HCPs/NCCPs in legislation:Funding

Domestic Natural System Adaptation to receive 1% of auction proceeds, ramping up to 4% in late 2020s

Section 6 competes with at least 12 other programs for 5% of that

Roughly $25M, ramping up to $200M

Also, NCCPs could compete for a share of CA’s allocation for implementing state plan


Funding: Dedicated and Additive

All amounts deposited into the Fund shall be available without further appropriation or fiscal year limitation.

Deposits in the Land and Water Conservation Fund under this clause shall be supplemental to funds provided under section 3 of the Land and Water Conservation Fund Act of 1965 (16 U.S.C. 460l–6), which shall remain available for non-adaptation needs;


Local Governments: On the front lines

Policy is necessarily global • We share one atmosphere

Action is often local• We live on the ground

climate change and habitat plans: federal policy and funding

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