climate change and human development (on-line course for journalists), undp

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Climate Change and Human Development

On-line Course for Journalists on Climate Change and Human Development

2UNDP Environment and Energy Group 2

Workshop overview

Climate Change: A General Introduction Part 1

The Long View: Climate Change and Past Human Development

The Science of Climate Change: Anthropogenic impacts

Climate Change in Europe and the CIS region

The Economics of Climate Change

International Climate Change negotiations

Cases against Pro-active Climate Risk Management

Adaptation and Mitigations are complementary strategies Part 2

UNDP MDG Carbon Facility Part 3

2007 Human Development Report Part 4


Part I

Climate Change:A General Introduction


Chapter 1.1

The Long View: Climate Change and Past Human Development


Long-term climate variability

The Earth’s climate changes on timescales of days to many millennia

Past ~2.5 million years:• Ice age cycle every ~100,000 years, driven by changes in Earth’s orbit• Temp. change of up to ~6-7º C globally between cold ice age & warm interglacial

• Human beings evolved against backdrop of glacial-interglacial oscillations• Humans have experienced a world up to ~6º C cooler than at present• Humans have experienced a world up to ~1.5º C warmer than at present

Pillar of lake sediment, in central Sahara, Libya


Holocene Climatic Optimum• 10,000–5,000 yrs ago, arid belt of northern hemisphere was humid• Greater summer heating – more intense monsoon in today’s deserts • Sahara, Western Asia, South Asia, northern China wetter• Globally, temperatures little different from today (<0.4° C higher)

Civilisation and climate change

Role of climatic crises• Humid period interrupted by periodic climatic crises - agriculture • ~6,000 yrs ago: shift towards aridity with cold arid crisis - partial recovery• ~5,200 yrs ago: final collapse of monsoons in many areas

Civilisation as adaptation• First civilisations emerge in areas facing environmental crisis populations squeezed into remain productive areas - river valleys increase in competition, social inequality, social stratification cities & states emerge as product of adaptation to increase aridity need to secure territory, manage populations, intensify food production

• 4,200 years ago a further arid crisis devastates Egypt and Mesopotamia


Lessons for development

Humanity has co-evolved with a dynamic climate• Climate change drives innovation, via crisis & disruption

Recent development has assumed a static climateDevelopment accommodates seasonal changes and extreme events with return periods of years to (in some cases) decades, but tends to ignore variability on decadal and longer timescales: e.g.

– building on flood plains– development on dynamic shorelines– expansion of agriculture into historically marginal areas (e.g. Sahel)– development that ignores longer-term climate variability increases vulnerability– complications of increasing levels of poverty

• Civilisation emerged during the last great global climatic upheaval• Since then, the global climate has remained relative stable• This period of stability is over


Chapter 1.2

The Science of Climate Change: Anthropogenic Impacts

10UNDP Environment and Energy Group 10Source: IPCC (2007)

Greenhouse gas concentrations are rising

• Increase since ~1750 due to industrial activity

• Rapid rise over past 50 years

• Atmospheric CO2 concentration has remained below 300 ppm for at least past 600,000 years

• Now at 380 ppm and rising


Source: IPCC (2007)

Temperatures are rising


Source: Science, 10 February 2005

Global temperatures over the past 1,200 years


Attributing climate change to human activity

Natural + anthropogenic forcing Natural forcing only

Global mean surface temperature anomalies from observations (black) as as simulated by a variety of global climate models.

Source: IPCC (2007)


EU Guardrail

EU Guardrail

Future emissions and warming scenariosA2 SRES Scenario

Strong regional economic growth and no capping of greenhouse gas emissions:

By 2100 - GHG concentrations of 700-1,000 ppm - Temperature rise of 2°-6° C

EU proposes keeping global temperature increase below 2º C to avoid “dangerous” climate change - Almost certain to exceed this “guardrail” value - Stabilisation below 550 ppm unlikely - Likely 2°C by 2050 and 3°C by 2100

Last time global temperature was 3°C above pre-industrial value: 3 million years ago

For higher temperatures, must go back tens of millions of years – no past analogue of future

Doubling

Doubling


Projected temperature and precipitation changes

Source: IPCC (2007)


Heat wave was associated with widespread mortality, especially elderly

Average temperature during 2003 heat wave was 22°C, far outside recorded range (mean value 17°C). Such an event very unlikely in the context of historical climate variability.

Estimated that probability of an extreme summer such as that of 2003 has more than doubled as a consequence of human-induced climate change.

Distribution of summer (average) temperatures in Switzerland from 1864-2003

European heat wave, 2003


Past, present and future sea level

• 1990s: fastest recorded rise at 4mm per year

• Future increases likely to be similar or greater

• Longer term: ≥ 1m per century very plausible

Source: IPCC (2007)

Conservative estimate?


Chapter 1.3

Climate Change in Europe and the CIS Region


Drought in Central and Western Asia 1999-2003• Most of affected area semi-arid steppe with winter & early spring precipitation• Precipitation between 1998-2001 less than 55% of long-term regional average• Drought exacerbated by early snow-melt and higher temperatures• Intensity of rainfall and drought-hardened ground led to flash floods• Prolonged La Niña & unusually warm W. Pacific & E. Indian Ocean played role• Consistent with projections of increased rainfall variability & intensity, more

frequent drought, decline in snow and ice cover

Drying trends in South & South-East Europe• Southern & south-eastern Europe have become drier by up to 20% (past century)• Frequency of “very wet” days has decreased in southern Europe (past century)

Recent Observed Trends


Key Vulnerabilities in Europe

Source: IPCC (2007)

TU: Tundra

BO: Boreal

AT: Atlantic

CE: Central

MT: Mountains

ME: Mediterranean

ST: Steppe

SLR: Sea-level rise

NAO: N. Atl. Oscil.


Summary of impacts: Europe

Source: IPCC (2007)

• 1º - 5.5º C increase for Europe as a whole by 2100, for low-high emissions scenarios

• Warming greatest over E. Europe in winter, W. & S. Europe in summer

• Yearly maximum temperatures expected to increase most in S. & central Europe

• Some E. European countries expected to experience same no. of hot days as present-day S. Europe

• More year-to-year variability, & more heat waves & drought - dry periods increase by 2100 in E. Europe

• Deflection of summer storms - decrease of precipitation of 30-45% in central Europe in summer

• More Atlantic cyclone activity - more precipitation & strong winds over central Europe in winter

• Increase in intensity of daily precipitation, even where trend is one of drying

• Increased flood risk in eastern and central Europe

• Increase in winter flows and decrease (of up to 50%) in summer flows for Rhine, Slovakian rivers, Volga

• Increased irrigation demand, greatest in central & eastern Europe

• Surface runoff reduced by 20-30% in south-eastern Europe

• By 2070s, 100-year droughts return every 50 years or less

• Decreases in crop productivity in Mediterranean, south-west Balkans, southern European Russia

• Decreased demand for winter heating, increased demand for summer cooling

• More heat-related deaths, fewer cold-related deaths


Climate change impacts in north-eastern Asia

Source: IPCC (2007)

• Impacts on infrastructure & transport

• Reduction in Arctic sea ice

• Impacts on carbon cycle


Central Asia• Median warming of 3.7º C, modest seasonal variation

• Median annual precipitation decrease of 3%: +4% in winter, -13% in summer (dry season)

• Grasslands productivity reduced (10-30% projected for Mongolia) - livestock impacts

• Expansion of steppe and desert steppe, possible reduction in available agricultural land

• Northward shift of agricultural zones, shrinking of high mountainous zones and forest steppe

• Crop yields down by up to 30% (HadCM2 modelling studies with CO2 fertilisation)

• More frequent mudflow and avalanches

• Changes in runoff might affect hydropower generation (e.g. Tajikistan)

Russian Federation• Increased forest productivity in north, but more forest fires

• Lena river delta retreating at 3.6-4.5 m/yr

• Reduced grassland productivity& northward shift - impacts on milk yield & animal health

• Low river flow events possibly more frequent in crop growing regions of south-west

• Permafrost melting, affecting bearing capacity, exploitability (excavation, mining), subsidence

• Increases in malaria & tick-borne encephalitis already reported

• Extreme high temperatures may affect mortality (may be offset by warmer winter temperatures)

Summary of impacts: Central Asia & Russia


Chapter 1.4

The Economics of Climate Change


Greenhouse gas emissions

Climate change impacts

Global climate change: change in mean global temperature, changes in regional temperature, rainfall,

pressure, circulation etc

Mitigation: reduce emissions, reducing magnitude of CC

Adaptation: reduce vulnerability to CC impacts, reducing losses

Mitigation vs adaptation

Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies

Future warming – carbon intensive world (adapted from IPCC TAR WGI)

CO2 concentration

does NOT stabilize.

Climate change impacts in a carbon-intensive world


Avoided damages from climate change

Stern (2006): 1% of global GDP/a: stabilisation at 550 ppm CO2e by 2050; 5-20% of global GDP/a if unmitigated (warming of 5C or more).

IPCC (2007): 3% of global GDP/a: stabilisation at 445-710ppm CO2e by 2030

Nordhaus (2007): 3% of global GDP/a: stabilisation at 685ppm by 2100

• What is dangerous climate change?


Cost of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions

Costs of mitigation depend on:1. Abatement technology used2. Location of abatement3. Scale of deployment of technology

Where the global GHG emissions cap is set and who is allowed to trade will affect 1,2 and 3.

Stabilising at 550 ppm/2C implies carbon price of $35/tC•Nordhaus: $129.5 t C (685 ppm by 2100)•Stern: $314 t C (BAU)


Paying for adaptation

Costs of adaptationWorld Bank: $9 bn - $41 bn/a Oxfam: <$50 bn/a (US and EU: 75% of bill)

Increases in ODA in the pipeline. Liability or opportunity?

•Total ODA in 2005: US$106.8 billion.•Scaling up to $50 billion/a by 2010 (G8)•Scaling up to $66 billion/a by 2015 (EU 15, 0.7% GNI)

Adaptation could displace MDG investments. Need to seek additional resources for adaptation and to protect planned ODA.


Benefits from adaptation

1. Reduced damage to economy: Flood control in China: B/C = 4 (1960-2000)Flood proofing roads Bangladesh: 1.62 (2000-2025)Flood proofing homesteads, Chars Bangladesh: 1.4 (2000 – 2025)(Stern Review, DFID 2006)

2. Higher productivity levels: Mali Sorghum yields: +6 to + 56% yieldMali Pearl Millet yields: +13 to +57%Recorded malaria cases in Botswana 10 times lower in 2005-6 than in 1996-7.(IRI 2006)


Adaptation and residual risk

Stern Review, 2006


Chapter 1.5

International Climate Change negotiations


Climate change entered the policy radar in 1979

1979 First World Climate Conference

1988 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) created

1990 IPCC First Assessment Report: scientific basis for UNFCCC

1992 (June) UNFCCC adopted at Rio Earth Summit

1994 (May) UNFCCC enters into force

1995 First Conference of the Parties (COP 1), Berlin

1997 COP 3, Kyoto: Kyoto Protocol adopted

1998 COP 4, Buenos Aires: Buenos Aires Plan of Action

2000 COP 6, The Hague: Talks on Plan of Action break down

2001 (July)2001 (October)

COP 6 “bis” resumes in BonnCOP 7, Marrakech: Marrakech Accords

2002 COP 8, Delhi: Delhi Declaration

2004 COP 10, Buenos Aires

2005 (February) Kyoto Protocol enters into force

2006 COP 12, Nairobi: Nairobi Work Programme


The Convention clearly links climate change to development

Convention objective

achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas

concentrations in the atmosphere at a

low enough level to prevent “dangerous

anthropogenic Interference” with the climate system

• allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to to climate change;

• ensure food production is not threatened; and

• enable economic development to proceed sustainably

within timeframe

sufficient to

UNFCCC signed by 191 Parties – near universal membership


Each Convention body has specialised role

Conference of the Parties (COP)• highest decision-making authority of the UNFCCC

Subsidiary Body for Scientific & Technological Advice (SBSTA)• provides link between scientific information and policy needs of COP

Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI)• advises on implementation issues

Global Environment Facility (GEF)• financial mechanism of the UNFCCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)• three working groups contribute to Assessment Reports• First Assessment Report (AR1) in 1990 served as basis for UNFCCC• AR2 (1995); AR3 (2001); AR4 (2007)


The Convention clusters countries in three groups

“Common, but differentiated responsibilities”

Industrialised countries &

Economies in Transition (EITs)

• Adopt policies and measures with aim of reducing GHG emissions to 1990 levels

• EITs have “flexibility” in implementing commitments

Annex I

Industrialised countries

• Provide financial resources to enable developing countries to:

• mitigate• adapt

• Promote and facilitate technology transfer to EITs and non-Annex I Parties

Annex II

Developing countries

• COP identifies activities to address non-Annex I needs and concerns

• no quantitative obligations

• Least Developed Countries given special consideration

Non-Annex I


Main features

• Legally binding targets for emissions of six major greenhouse gases in industrialised countries during first commitment period

• New international market-based instruments creating a new commodity: carbon

• Facilitate sustainable development and additional support to developing countries on adaptation

• Entry into force on 16 February 2005• 174 Parties, 1 regional economic organisation (June 2007)• Commitment period: 2008 – 2012

The Kyoto Protocol


Several key issues remain at centre of climate negotiations

1. Engaging non-Annex I countries in mitigation efforts– particularly China and India

2. Engaging US and Australia in Kyoto Protocol– US is responsible for 20%-25% of global emissions

3. Funding for adaptation (impacts are already occurring)

4. Establishing new emission reduction targets (post-2012)– voluntary or mandatory?– absolute or relative?– sectoral targets?

5. Role of sinks (LULUCF → REED)


Issue 1: Future emissions growth will come from today’s developing countries

Where FSU = former Soviet Union

Developed and developing country emissions currently about equal…… but developing countries have around 85% of total population


Issue 2: Engaging the US and Australia in the Kyoto Protocol Issue 3: Countries least responsible for climate change are most vulnerable


Result: UNFCCC negotiations are dominated by a few key positions

United States

• climate change is long-term problem

• premature to think about post-2012 framework

• focus on technologies that provide reductions in 20-30 years, not binding targets and timetables

European Union• climate change is urgent issue• chance to avoid dangerous

interference could be lost in next 10 to 20 years

• need binding targets & timetables

Asia Pacific Partnership (2006)

US, Australia, India, Japan, China, South Korea

Developing countries (G77)• climate change urgent issue

• developed countries are responsible and must act first• priority is development,

poverty reduction• need climate-

friendly technologies


All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute

Note: estimates do not include non-technical options such as lifestyle changes


Chapter 1.6

Cases Against Pro-Active Climate Risk Management


Contrarians

1. The climate is not changing

2. The climate is changing, but this is part of a natural process

3. Human-induced climate change is real, but we should not worry about it

Since the late 1980s, a well-coordinated, well-funded campaign by contrarian scientists, free-market think tanks and some elements in industry has argued that we should not worry about climate change. There are three fundamental positions taken by the contrarians:

“…could it be that man-made global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people? It sure sounds like it.” (Sen. J. Inhofe, Oklahoma)

“…the Left's best excuse for increasing government control over our actions in ways both large and small …the ideal scare campaign for those who hate capitalism and love big government… anti-American, anti-capitalist, and anti-human” (Christopher C. Horner, Competitive Enterprise Institute)

The arguments against action have not been consistent - they have evolved as it becomes more difficult to deny the science


Contrarian Position 1: The climate is not changing

Realities

1. Manmade climate change is the only current satisfactory explanation for observed trends in climate

Evidence for warming comes from a huge variety of sources - nearly all parts of the world exhibit warming trends

Basic physics tells us that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will lead to warming: both have been observed

Modelling only reproduces observations if includes GHG emissions

2. The scientific consensus is extremely strong - while there is uncertainty and disagreement about many potential impacts, the vast majority of climate scientists accept that human activity is influencing climate

3. IPCC is conservative in many respects, limiting itself to quantifiable science (e.g. sea-level projections). Science is subject to rigorous peer review

Assertions

1. Global warming is an invention of environmentalists - it is a hoax

2. There is no scientific consensus on climate change

3. IPCC and climate scientists are alarmist


Contrarian Position 2: Climate change is real, but is not caused by human activity

Assertions

1. Climate has always changed. Climate change is nothing new.

2. Past warming has been as great or greater than that we are experiencing today

3. Past warming has preceded increases in greenhouse gas concentrations

4. The observed warming has been caused by an increase in the sun’s output

5. Climate models do not include effects of changes in solar output, volcanoes, etc

Realities

1. Sooner or later we will have to face significant natural climate change regardless of greenhouse gas emissions, but left alone the climate is likely to remain stable for many centuries or even millennia.

2. Global temperature probably comparable to today during last interglacial ~110,000 years ago. Medieval warm period appears to have been a regional, not a global, warming. Projected temperatures for late 20th century higher than any time during last 3 million years, possibly 10s of millions of years.

3. Yes, but the mechanisms were different (orbital) and greenhouse gases then amplified warming

4. There is evidence for a solar impact on climate in the past, but the recent effects of changes solar output is small compared with that of greenhouse gases, and recent observed solar changes are in the wrong direction to explain increased global temperatures

5. Wrong - climate models include many “forcings”, including solar, aerosols, volcanoes, etc


Argument 3: Climate change is real, and is caused by human activity, but we should not worry about it

Realities

1. Models have trouble representing abrupt changes such as those known to have occurred in the past - may underestimate risks

2. There are limits to, and constraints on, adaptation

3. Warming of ~2-3°C may increase productivity of some crops/plants, but this will be offset by drought, extremes etc, & will not be sustained for higher temperatures

4. Climate change stimulates social change, but this often involves large-scale disruption to societies, and changes emerge after transitional crisis periods.

5. Adaptation cost estimates are few, and tend to assume gradual, low-magnitude changes. Uncertainty in impacts means that costs cannot be predicted. Where adaptation is not possible, losses are inevitable.

Assertions

1. Climate change will not be as bad as expected - risks have been exaggerated

2. We will adapt to climate change, as people adapted to past changes

3. Climate change is good - warmer conditions & more CO2 will green the world

4. Climate change will stimulate innovation and drive progress

5. The costs of mitigation will outweigh the costs of adaptation


Growing the world economy today to better address climate change tomorrow

“…The elaborate and expensive actions now being considered to stop global warming will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, are often based on emotional rather than strictly scientific assumptions, and may very well have little impact on the world’s temperature for hundreds of years.”

Rather than starting with the most radical procedures, Lomborg argues we should first focus resources on more immediate concerns, such as fighting malaria and HIV/AIDS and assuring and maintaining a safe, fresh water supply – activities “which can be addressed at a fraction of the cost and save millions of lives within our lifetime.”

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