climate change and impact on corn and grain quality
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Climate Change and Impact on Corn and Grain Quality. Eugene S. Takle Professor of Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Agronomy Professor of Atmospheric Science, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Director, Climate Science Initiative Iowa State University - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change and Impact on Corn and Grain Quality
Eugene S. TakleProfessor of Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Agronomy
Professor of Atmospheric Science, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Director, Climate Science InitiativeIowa State [email protected]
49th Annual Corn Dry Milling Conference, 29-30 May 2008, Peoria, IL
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Outline
• Comparison of natural variability of climate and human induced climate change
• Projections of future climate change • Impact of climate change on “regions suitable for rain-
fed agriculture”, including the US Midwest• What does this mean for agriculture and corn
production in the US Midwest?
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CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
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CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Natural cycles
Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
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IPCC Third Assessment Report
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2008
384 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
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2050
550 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
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“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
?
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
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Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
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Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/ann/glob-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
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Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Reduced ConsumptionEnergy intensive
Energy conserving
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Energy intensive
Energy conservingReduced Consumption
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Reduced ConsumptionEnergy intensive
Energy conserving
AdaptationNecessary
MitigationPossible
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Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture
IPCC 2007
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Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture
IPCC 2007
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Projected changes in precipitation between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 for an energy-conserving scenario of greenhouse gas emissions
IPCC 2007
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Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Temperature• Longer frost-free period (high)• Higher average winter temperatures (high)• Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)• Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short
term but more in long term (medium)• Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter
(high)• More freeze-thaw cycles (high)• Increased temperature variability (high)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC reports
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• More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium)• Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter
springs, drier summers) (high)• More water-logging of soils (medium)• More variability of summer precipitation (high)
– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)– Longer periods without rain (medium)
• Higher absolute humidity (high)• Stronger storm systems (medium)• Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in
long run (medium)• More winter soil moisture recharge
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Precipitation
*Estimated from IPCC reports
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• Reduced wind speeds (high)• Reduced solar radiation (medium)• Increased tropospheric ozone (high)• Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high)• Phenological states are shortened high)• Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2
(high)• Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicides
(high)• Plants have increased water used efficiency (high)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Other
*Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports
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Gu, et al, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? Bioscience 58 (3), 261-270.
2007 April Freeze Event
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Gu, et al, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? Bioscience 58 (3), 261-270.
2007 April Freeze Event
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Gu, et al, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? Bioscience 58 (3), 261-270.
2007 April Freeze Event
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Gu, et al, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? Bioscience 58 (3), 261-270.
2007 April Freeze Event
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Gu, et al, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? Bioscience 58 (3), 261-270.
2007 April Freeze Event
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Summary
• Climate change since the 1970s cannot be explained on the basis of natural variation alone (consensus)
• Greenhouse gases emitted from burning fossil fuels account for more than half of the current warming (consensus)
• The warming already introduced will persist for more than a century (consensus)
• Corn production will encounter some benefits and numerous challenges (my assessment based on consensus)
• The US Midwest likely will suffer less adverse effects of climate change than many other major rain-fed agricultural areas (my assessment based on consensus)