climate change and kansas johannes feddema department of geography the university of kansas

Climate Change and Kansas

Johannes Feddema

Department of Geography

The University of Kansas

What is Climate Science

What is Climate Science• Understanding of the movement of energy into,

through, and out of the Earth System

• Based on physics through the processes of:• Electromagnetic radiation

• Convective heating of the Atmosphere (sensible heat)

• Convective transport of water vapor

z

342

324

390

16540

235

30

0

7824

67

107

30

77

168

Surface Energy Balance: 168 = 390 – 324 + 24 + 78

Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235

Sensible Heat

Latent Heat

Evapo-transpiration

Conduction

Long-wave Radiationfrom Clouds

Long-wave Radiationfrom Atmosphere

Long-wave RadiationAtmospheric Window

Longwave RadiationAbsorbed by Atmosphere

Longwave RadiationEmmited by Surface

Long-wave RadiationEmitted byAtmosphere

350

Outgoing Long-wave Radiation

Thermal heating

IncomingSolar Radiation

Shortwave

ReflectedShortwave radiation

by Clouds Aerosols

and Gases


by Surface

AbsorbedShortwave radiation

by Surface


by Atmosphere


Global Average Energy Balance

Atmosphere Energy Balance:67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30

Background: Human Climate Interactions

What exactly do we want to simulate?

AgricultureIntensityCrop typesIrrigationFertilizer use

GrazingIntensityPasture

Natural Vegetation?

Urban

De/Re-forestationPlantationSuccessionDegradation

Soil Degradation

Atmospheric Composition

FireNaturalHuman causedAgricultural

So what are we worried about?

Humans develop as species

{19001958

2005

Ice Age

Present

Future?

1900

Rate = +0.7 ºC 100yrs

0.7 ºC

100 years

Rate ≈ +0.036 ºC 100yrs5-8 ºC

18,000 years

Rate – Depends on: response time? feed backs?

Last Glacial Maximum

Domestication of plants and animals

Industrial revolution begins

Source: World Resources 2000-2001 Time Magazine – 9 April 2001

Climate Forcing (Anthropogenic)

z

342

324

390

16540

235

30

0

7824

67

107

30

77

168

Surface Energy Balance: 168 – 324 = 390 + 24 + 78 + 0

Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235

Sensible Heat

Latent Heat

Evapo-transpiration

Conduction

Long-wave Radiationfrom Clouds

Long-wave Radiationfrom Atmosphere

Long-wave RadiationAtmospheric Window

Longwave RadiationAbsorbed by Atmosphere

Longwave RadiationEmmited by Surface

Long-wave RadiationEmitted byAtmosphere

350

Outgoing Long-wave Radiation

Thermal heating

IncomingSolar Radiation

Shortwave


by Clouds Aerosols

and Gases


by Surface


by Surface


by Atmosphere


Global Average Energy Balance

39

234

351 2

1

166

326

79

391

Atmosphere Energy Balance:67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30

235

352

16679 326352

79391326

Recent Climate Variable Trends

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/af/Short_Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png

How far back should we look?

Permian Crash

Extinction ofDinosaurs

Terrestrial plants

But it was a different world

SourcesGlobalwarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide_png

Bergman etaal (2004). American Journal of Science 301: 182-204. Berner and Kothavala (2001). American Journal of Science 304: 397–437. Gradstein, FM and JG Ogg (1996). Episodes 19: 3-5. Gradsteinet al. (2005). A geologic time scale 2004. Camb. Univ. PressRothman (2001) Proc. of the Nat. Academy of Sciences 99 (7): 4167-4171. Royer, et al. (2004) GSA Today www.scotese.com

Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice

ObservationsSimulated5-year running mean

• Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease

• Extent decreases from 70 to 20% coverage in 10 years.

“Abrupt”transition

Impacts of Climate Change – Sea Ice Extent

SourcesNSIDCNCAR

Simulated

Observed

Greenland

Russia

Scandinavia

Alaska

Canada

Alaska

Greenland

Russia

IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts

Climate Change Science

What do we need to know?• Is the climate changing

• Observations• Reference conditions

• Climate change attribution• What is causing it to change

• Climate projections• What does theory tell us about the future

Global Climate over the last century

How to lie with Statistics (or maps)

1977 to 2007

Annual 1977 - 2007 Average = 54.56 degF Annual 1977 - 2007 Trend = 0.53 degF / Decade

1930 to 2007Annual 1930 - 2007 Average = 54.55 degF Annual 1930 - 2007 Trend = -0.04 degF / Decade

Kansas Temperature Changes

SourceNational Climate Data Centerhttp://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl

1895 to 2007Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 54.27 degF Annual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.09 degF / Decade

Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 27.50 Inches Annual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.22 Inches / Decade



Kansas Precipitation Changes


1895-2007

1930-2007

1977-2007

+ 2 C all months+ 0% Precipitation

D = 95S = 246


D =151S = 188

+ 1.5 C all months+ 5% Precipitation

D = 69S = 302Present Day Normal D = 47

S = 304

2050

Kansas Climate projections

Eastern Kansas (37N, 95W)

2100+ 3 C all months+ 5% Precipitation

D =107S = 255

Precipitation

Potential Evapotranspiration

D = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)

Source: IPCC 2007J. Feddema University of Kansas

IPCC A1B Scenario Middle of the road Scenario

3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase

3% annual P increase (summer -3% P)

+ 1.5 C all months+ 5% Precipitation

D = 383S = 0

2050

Kansas Climate projectionsD = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)

Western Kansas (37N, 95W)

2100


D = 433S = 0


D =463S = 0


D =540S = 0

Source: IPCC 2007J. Feddema University of Kansas

Precipitation

Potential Evapotranspiration

D = 330S = 0

IPCC A1B Scenario Middle of the road Scenario

3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase

3% annual P increase (summer -3% P)

IPCC Simulations for Kansas

NW

SW SC

NC NE

SE

Temperature Projections

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s

Decade

Tem

per

atu

re (

oC

)

NW KS

NC KS

NE KS

SW KS

SC KS

SE KSObservations 3 Model Projection

Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)

Heating Degree Day Projections (18oC base Temp)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090sDecade

Mea

n A

nn

ual

Ave

rag

e H

eati

ng

DD

(oK

)

NW Kansas

NC Kansas

NE Kansas

SW Kansas

SC Kansas

SE Kansas

Observations 3 Model Projection


Cooling Degree Day Projections (18oC base Temp)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800


Decade

Mea

n A

nn

ual

Ave

rag

e C

oo

ling

DD

(oK

)

NW Kansas

NC Kansas

NE Kansas

SW Kansas

SC Kansas

SE Kansas



Growing Degree Day Projections (10oC base Temp)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500


Decade

Mea

n A

nn

ual

Ave

rag

e G

row

ing

DD

(oK

)

NW Kansas

NC Kansas

NE Kansas

SW Kansas

SC Kansas

SE Kansas



Freezing Degree Day Projections (0oC base Temp)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450


Decade

Mea

n A

nn

ual

Ave

rag

e F

reez

ing

DD

(oK

)

NW Kansas

NC Kansas

NE Kansas

SW Kansas

SC Kansas

SE Kansas



Potential Evapotranspiration projections

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

195

0s

196

0s

197

0s

198

0s

199

0s

200

0s

201

0s

202

0s

203

0s

204

0s

205

0s

206

0s

207

0s

208

0s

209

0s

Decade

Po

ten

tia

l Ev

ap

otr

an

sp

ira

tio

n (

mm

)

NW KS

NC KS

NE KS

SW KS

SC KS

SE KS

Observations 3 Model


Precipitation Projections

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200


Decade

Pre

cip

itat

ion

(m

m)

NW KS

NC KS

NE KS

SW KS

SC KS

SE KSObservations 3 Model Projection


Actual Evapotranspiration Trends

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000


Decade

AE

(m

m)

NW KS

NC KS

NE KS

SW KS

SC KS

SE KS



Grid_Point_7_AE and PE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Time

Ev

ap

otr

an

sp

ira

tio

n (

mm

)

GP_7_AE

GP_7_PE


Annual Moisture Deficit (mm H2O)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


Decade

Mea

n A

nn

ual

Ave

rag

e D

efic

it (

mm

H2O

)

NW KS

NC KS

NE KS

SW KS

SC KS

SE KS



Annual Moisture Surplus (mm H2O)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


Decade

Mea

n A

nn

ual

Ave

rag

e S

urp

lus

(mm

H2O

)

NW KS

NC KS

NE KS

SW KS

SC KS

SE KS



Soil Moisture Trends

0

25

50

75

100

125

150


Decade

So

il M

ois

ture

leve

l (W

HC

= 1

50 m

m)

NW KS

NC KS

NE KS

SW KS

SC KS

SE KS



THE END

Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Trends for Kansas

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


Decade

Precip

itati

on

(in

ch

es)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Tem

peratu

re (°

F)

winter spring summer autumn winter spring summer autumn


Global Climate Observing System

Sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermometer http://inventors.about.com/b/2004/11/16/the-history-behind-the-thermometer.htm www.nature.com http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Rapids/7592/Stevenson.jpg

Thermoscope

Thermometer

Greeks (density and energy)11th Century Avicenna 15?? -1603 Galileo (thermoscope)1613 – Segredo/Santorio (thermometer?)1714 Fahrenheit (Mercury)1742 Celsius (Centigrade Scale)


What is causing climate to change?• Natural processes

• Solar processes and Paleo records • Atmospheric composition change• Changes in the carbon cycle

• Human induced processes• Atmospheric composition• Land cover effects

Natural Forcing over the last decades

How to compile long term information

Human Impacts

Attributing climate change to a cause?• Solar forcing

• Volcanic forcing

• Greenhouse gas forcing

• Sulfate aerosol forcing (global dimming)

• Others?

Background: The Climate System

Climate Models

R15 T42

T85 T170

Climate Models

(300 km) (150 km)

(75) km (37 km)

Climate Models

Timeline of Climate Model Development

Climate Simulation: How good are the models?

Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007

Climate projections: What is to come?

T. Barnett and D. Pierce of SIO

Climate Simulation: Ocean Response

Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data)

Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for the first two decades of the 21st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2°C per decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2°C per decade)

IPCC Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32

Anomalies

relative

to 1980-99

Climate projections: Global Temperature

Kansas Historical Records

Background on Kansas Climate

Future Simulations for Kansas

Multi-model average precipitation % change, medium scenario (A1B), representing seasonal precipitation regimes, total differences 2090-99 minus 1980-99

Climate projections

White areas are where less than two thirds of the models agree in the sign of the change

Climate projections

Stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change

Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes

Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions

This continues the observed patterns in recent trends

Fig. SPM-6

Climate projections

Figure 11.12

Figure 10.19

Figure 10.18

Human influence on climate - Perspectives

What is missing in these projection for Kansas?Irrigation now covers a significant portion of the state (local cooling; precipitation?)Land use change (local cooling)Urbanization (warming)

Past Examples

Mesopotamia – change in grazing and forests

Greeks – impacts of filling swamps, overgrazing etc.

Eastern US – discussions about the effects of deforestation leading to more rain?

Sodbusters – “rain follows the plough.”

Dust Bowl

Source: Glacken 1967 Traces …. http://www.aip.org/

Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Average = 31.54 degF Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Trend = 0.21 degF / Decade

Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Average = 76.50 degF Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.04 degF / Decade

Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Average = 55.87 degF Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Trend = -0.04 degF / Decade

Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Average = 53.23 degF Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.12 degF / Decade


Spring

WinterFall

Summer

Kansas Temperature Changes: Seasonal

Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Average = 2.53 Inches Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Trend = 0.02 Inches / Decade

Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Average = 6.18 Inches Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.02 Inches / Decade

Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Average = 10.64 Inches Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.05 Inches / Decade

Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Average = 8.14 Inches Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.12 Inches / Decade


Spring

WinterFall

Summer

Kansas Precipitation Changes: Seasonal


Why the IPCC?• Recognized urgency of the problems

• Recognized the need to organize our knowledge

• Need to coordinate experiments

• Provide reliable information to decision makers

1853 First International Meteorological Conference (standardization of instruments)1873 WMO's predecessor, the International Meteorological Organization (IMO) established1882 Launch of the First International Polar Year 1882-1883 1932 Launch of the second International Polar Year 1932-19331951 WMO established as a specialized agency of the United Nations1957 Launch of International Geophysical Year 1957-1958 Global Ozone Observing System set up 1963 World Weather Watch launched1976 WMO conducts first international assessment of the state of global ozone 1979 First World Climate Conference held which led to the establishment of the World Climate Programme1985 Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Ozone Layer 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer 1988 WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change established1989 Global Atmosphere Watch established to monitor atmospheric composition

WMO and UNEP initiate the process leading to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1990 Second World Climate Conference initiates the Global Climate Observing System

First Assessment Report of the IPCC 1991 WMO/UNEP begin process which led to negotiation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development (the 'Earth Summit') leads to Agenda 211995 Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1997 El Nino/Southern Oscillation warm episode and severe weather events across the world1998 Kyoto Conference establishes timetable for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions2001 Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, South Africa) 2007 Bali Conference

Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC awarded Nobel Prize

Milestones of the WMO

Source WMO

IPCC Structure

TSU = Technical Support Unit

IPCC -- Coordinating research efforts

IPCC creates infrastructure to coordinate experiments between groups• Standard emissions scenarios• Standard protocols

IPCC – Where from here?

Develop better information• Include biogeochemical cycles

• Better human impacts simulation

• More coordinated efforts

IPCC – Publishing and conveying knowledge

Scenarios for AR4

AR5

Scenarios for AR5

IPCC – Work Flow

(a) Sequential approach (b) Parallel approach

Emissions & socio-economic scenarios

(IAMs)1

Radiative forcingRadiative forcing2

Climate projections(CMs)

Climate projections(CMs)3

Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and levels

of radiative forcing1

Emissions & socio-economic scenarios

(IAMs)2b

Climate, atmospheric & C-cycle projections

(CMs)2a

Impacts, adaptation, vulnerability (IAV) & mitigation analysis3

Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability

(IAV)

Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability

(IAV)4

4

4

4

AR 4 AR 5

IPCC – What next?

IAV research based on new CM and IAM scenarios

Time Line & Critical Path of Scenario Development

Continued Development and Application of IAM Scenarios

IAV Research Based on AR4 Climate and SRES IAM scenarios

Integration of CMC Ensembles with

IAM NEW Scenarios

RCPsSelection,

Extension to 2300, Downscaling

Story Lines

IAM

IAV

CMC

CMC Develops RCP-based Ensemble Runs

Development of New IAM Scenarios

12 monthsFa

ll 20

07

24 months 18 months 12 monthFa

ll 20

08

Fa

ll 20

10

Sp

ring

20

12

Sp

ring

20

13

Parallel Phase Integration Phase

Pre

pa

rato

ry

Ph

ase

Publication Lag

ModelInput

Conclusions

• Climate Science is still young• It needs to become much more interdisciplinary

– Biological Sciences– Geological Sciences– Computer Sciences– Geographical Sciences– Social Sciences – Political Sciences

• Ample research opportunities

The End

Proposed scenario considerations

Scenarios for AR5

T. Barnett and D. Pierce of SIO

What will the future bring?


Using Models to simulate possible scenarios?

Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007

Climate projections

Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data)

Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for the first two decades of the 21st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2°C per decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2°C per decade)

IPCC Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32

Anomalies

relative

to 1980-99

Climate projections: GHG

What about Kansas?


Background on Kansas Climate

Sea-ice Concentration: Climatology (1979-1999)… Mixture of Improved Physics and Resolution

Climate Change Scenarios:

At any point in time, we are committed to additional warming and sea level rise from the radiative forcing already in the system.

Warming stabilizes after several decades, but sea level from thermal expansion continues to rise for centuries.

Each emission scenario has a warming impact.

(Meehl et al., 2005: How much more warming and sea level rise? Science, 307, 1769-1772)

Media Attention to Global Warming…Not Sufficient to Change Policies!

What is the roleof skeptics?

What will the new Congress do?

What will KansasDo?

Sea-ice Extent in Both NH and SH

Climate models can be used to provide information on changes in extreme events such as heat waves

Heat wave severity defined as the mean annual 3-day warmest nighttime minima event

Model compares favorably with present-day heat wave severity

In a future warmer climate, heat waves become more severe in southern and western North America, and in the western European and Mediterranean region

Observed

Model

Future

From Meehl and Tebaldi 2005

climate change and kansas johannes feddema department of geography the university of kansas

Documents

surface energy balance

agricultural slide

anthropogenic slide

movement of energy

university of kansas

clouds aerosols

climate change

human climate interactions