Climate Change and Sustainable Urban Areas

Indus Valley School, 28.3.2013

Miriam Kugele,Coordinator Climate Change

and Sustainable Energy,IUCN Pakistan

Proposed Outline

1. Unsustainable practices in Karachi2. Introduction to Climate Change3. Cities and climate change4. Imagine your project space in 50 years;

climate change information needs5. Options for mitigation and adaptation6. Identify adaptation alternatives

• Identify unsustainable practices in urban areas in Karachi or in your project ‘space’

• NB: Sustainability means for– Economic,– Environmental and– Social aspects;– And does not compromise the ability of future

generations to meet their own needs.

1. Group Work

2. Introduction to Climate Change

FAQ 1.3, Figure 1

World Development report 2010. p 4

CO2 concentration over time

Dec 2012: 395 ppm

The carbon cycle: stocks and fluxes

Source: World Development report. 2010. Focus A: The science of climate change. Adapted from IPCC. 2007

Source: Climate Change 2007. Synthesis report 2007. IPCC. Geneva

Greenhouse gas emissions by region (2004)

Source: Climate Change 2007. Synthesis report 2007. IPCC. Geneva

Projected impact on human well-being

2 °C

• 8th most affected country by climate related extreme events between 1991 to 2010 (Germanwatch, 2011)

• Among 16 most vulnerable countries in Asia (Maplecroft, 2010)

• Losses per year from climate related disasters: around 5% of GDP (ADB, 2010)

• Annual adaptation costs: expected to range from U$7 to U$14 billion (UNFCCC and GOP, 2011)

• Emission share: ~ 0.8% of world’s total (rank 135) (GoP, 2010)

Underlying Vulnerabilities:• Large range of geo-physical systems• Dependence on glacial melt water and single river system (Indus)• Most of the country arid or semi-arid (less than 250mm/year in

precipitation)• Extensive ecosystems degradation• High population growth rate, livelihood dependence on natural resources,

poverty• Low prioritization of environment and climate change issues, and insufficient

human and financial capacities

PAKISTAN – Ranked as highly VULNERABLE

Selected impacts in Pakistan• Water insecurity

– River flows: change in seasonal patterns of flows and increased sediment load > reduced reservoir capacity

– Irrigation capacity reduced / unstable– Extreme events (esp. floods, droughts)– Effects on forests and other vulnerable ecosystems (wetlands, mountain regions, etc.)

• Food insecurity– Agriculture and livestock are backbone of Pakistan’s economy, and still much

subsistence agriculture– Reduced crop productivity, higher demand for irrigation water, pests, deterioration of

soils, salinity intrusion on coasts, etc.

• Energy insecurity– Expected 8% increase in demand per year– Siltation (lower capacity in hydropower)– Water and heat stress on infrastructure: transmission losses, low energy efficiency may

further decrease

3. Cities and climate change

Why look at cities and climate change?• ¾ of the world's population expected to be urban in 2030,

and 70% of this growth in Asia• 40% of world’s population living within 100km of coasts• City governments at critical climate change nexus:

– responsible for large amounts of GHG emissions (buildings are biggest source of emissions and energy consumption around the globe)

– populations and infrastructureare immensely vulnerable

– yet well positioned to act quickly.

Source: WRI 2005

Impacts of CC on cities

• More hot days and heat waves• More intense rainfall• Existing climate extremes, such as typhoons, floods and

droughts intensified and more frequent• Sea level rise: erosion and saltwater intrusion• Energy production and transmission reduction• Water quality deterioration• Reduced productivity of land and access to water:

water and food insecurity• In-migration (e.g. due to drought)

Exploration: Secondary impacts of extremes in urban areas

Source:UNHABITAT 2012

Exploration: cascade effects

Breakdown in energy production / special

permissions required

But: less water for cooling (dry spell and policy

limits)

Power plans are less efficient and effective + poor

transmissionHigher energy

consumption (e.g. air conditioning)

Sustained heat wave

Health impacts; Stresses om

ecosystems and on critical

infrastructures; …

Example:Effects of heat wavein Germany 2003for energy production

Exploration: Urban Heat Island Effect

Urban heat island around 1-30C, yet in the evening up to 120C

Boston, Massachusetts. Surface temperature, 2009. Source : Camilo Pérez Arrau, 2010

Exploration: Vulnerability

• Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to and unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, as well as the system’s sensitivity and adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007)

• Areas, people, activities in the city that may be most vulnerable?

Karachi – context for climate change

• Expected temperature increase in Pakistan projected to be around 1.3-1.5 °C by 2020s, 2.5-2.8 °C by 2050s, and 3.9- 4.4 °C by 2080s

• Urban growth and urban sprawl• Very little precipitation• Coastal location• Natural resource dependent livelihoods• High energy demand• Commercial importance and port• Lack of adequate drainage• Drought and floods

Informal settlements

People living in informal settlements often lack the following critical living conditions:

• Access to improved water��• Access to improved sanitation facilities��• Sufficient living area��• Structural quality and durability of dwellings• Security of tenure��> Infrastructure deficit> Higher vulnerability> Need to integrate development with disaster risk reduction

and with climate change adaptation

Examples of future risks in cities• Jakarta, when hit by floods in 2007, for example, experienced a total financial loss of US$879 million,

and more than 200,000 refugees.• In Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, intense rainfall in 2010 damaged infrastructure and affected waste

management, transportation and communications, while spreading disease in flooded areas.• Hurricane Katrina was estimated to cost the United States over $100 billion . New Orleans is still

dealing with the effects of Hurricane Katrina, and will in the future lose significant parts of the city from sea level rises should climate change continue on its current path.

• In Lagos, Nigeria, unmitigated climate change will displace residents as a result of flooding, cause water shortages due to salt water intrusion, compound problems with waste management and human health and stress.

• Floods and windstorms caused damage worth over $500 billion and over 150,000 deaths in one decade (1996-2005). They also affected over 1.6 billion people. Then, in 2008 alone, there were 140,848 deaths from storms although most of these were from the impact of Cyclone Nargis on Myanmar.

• For the ‘Safe Island’ Projects for tsunamis in the Maldives the cost of reclamation and coastal protection, including harbour works for the Vilifushi project, was about $23 million.

• In Manila, Bangkok, and Ho Chi Minh City, � costs of damage from climate change-related flooding are likely to be substantial, ranging from 2 to 6 percent of regional GDP; a 1-in-30 year flood in Manila could cost between $900 million and $1.5 billion, given current flood control infrastructure

• In Karachi 60 percent of residents live in slum areas and do not have adequate facilities to sustain heat waves.

4. Group Work

Imagine your project space in 50 years:• What climate change impacts are relevant?• What are the biggest risks? For which people

and which assets?• What are your information needs?

5. Options for mitigation and adaptation in cities

We need to – and can! – act locally

Definitions of Climate Compatible Development concepts

• Mitigation: human intervention to reduce the extent of climate change. It includes strategies to reduce greenhouse gas sources and emissions, and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks.

• Adaptation: process or action of adjusting to different circumstances or conditions, in this case as a result of a changing climate.

• Low carbon development: interface between mitigation and development. It aims to promote development while reducing emissions.

• Climate resilient development: development that has the capacity to absorb and quickly bounce back from climate shocks and stresses.

Source: Mitchell and Maxwell (2010)

Mitigation potential per sector

Source: IPCC, 2007

MITIGATION

Requires concerted and focused actionbroad principles of sustainability are complementary

to the measures needed to mitigate climate change, e.g. pressing local environmental problems such as air pollution, waste

and transport alternative energy sources become more attractive than fossil fuel better planned with reduced urban sprawl, greener buildings, public

transit

but addressing climate change has emerged as a matter that must be tackled in its own right

Low carbon design - buildings

Well-established, over-arching principles:1. Understand energy use in the building type2. Use the form and fabric of the building to minimise energy

demand3. Focus on insulation and airtightness4. Use high efficiency building services with low carbon fuels5. Manage energy within the building (i.e. low carbon operations)6. Use renewable energy systems

Reducing carbon emissions by changing the ways in which buildings are designed, constructed, managed and used.

Source: www.architecture.com

Buildings and energy• Retrofit buildings for energy efficiency,

towards ‘low emissions’ or ‘zero carbon’ buildings• Light coloured roofs• Solar water heating• Urban greening• Public lighting with LEDs• Behavioural changes in energy and

water use (light bulbs, water heaters, timers)• Solar panels on roofs (feed-in and island systems possible)• Offsetting remaining emissions• Combined heat and power plants / localised energy systems• Capturing methane from solid waste and sewerage for electricity or

bio-methane (also carbon trading / CDM opportunities)

Transportation

• Public transportation (e.g. Bogota) and management of vehicle fleet

• Public bicycle rental (e.g. Paris)• Inner-city restrictions for highly

polluting vehicles (e.g. London, Germany, …)

• Policy measures to phase out e.g. leaded fuel, 2 stroke engines, etc.

ADAPTATION= Adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities•“Soft” adaptation – policies and regulations•“Hard” adaptation – infrastructure

Mitigation: reduce emissions, reducing magnitude of CC

Adaptation: reduce vulnerability to CC impacts, reduce losses

Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategiesSource: UNDP

Climate change impacts

Global climate change: change in mean global temperature, changes in regional temperature, rainfall, pressure, circulation,

etc.

Greenhouse gas emissions

Adaptation measures - Infrastructure

• measures needed to help cities cope with climate change vary considerably depending on political, cultural, historical and climatic conditions

• concerted effort to "climate-proofing" of infrastructure, including– storm-drainage systems,– dyke construction and upgrade,– water supply and treatment plants,– "working with nature" (see below)– protection or relocation of energy or solid waste management

facilities (for SLR)– improved water saving and water management measures (droughts)

Possible adaptation responses to sea level rise

Source: IIED 2009

Buildings• Air conditioning maladapted

response!!• Light-colored rooftops in Montreal

increase the albedo of a given building, thus reducing their energy absorption potential

• ‘Cool pavements’• Urban landscape of Santiago, Chile:

White paint and trees are key factors to diminish the urban heat release.

• Expansion of rainwater storage and use of rain water and water efficiency measures

• Desalination of sea water• Wind corridors• Water surfaces

Transportation and roads

• Planning e.g. to avoid flood sensitive areas (where in Karachi?)

• Planning for space:• Transit oriented development

(sustainability aspects)• Address critical gaps in the

‘health emergency response systems’

• Green infrastructure (e.g. pervious pavement)

• Cleaning up solid waste to prevent flooding

Costs of adaptation of urban infrastructure

Costs for low and middle income Asia

Infrastructure deficit US$ billion 217.5 annually until 2030

Costs for climate proofing add 0.5-10 %

Adaptation costs of infrastructure

US$ billion 1.9 - 32.4 per year (UNFCCC)US$ billion 10.9 - 43.5 per year (IIED)

Residual damage ??

Source: IIED 2009

Adaptation – reduce vulnerabilitiesA broad range of measures that reduce vulnerabilities

and increase community resilience, e.g.:– local economic development strategies,– community early warning systems,– better shelter options and participatory in-situ slum

upgrading,– relocation of urban populations to appropriate or

improved locations,– improved public health interventions,– urban and peri-urban agriculture,– raise awareness about specific climate change impacts

on the most vulnerable,– include vulnerable groups in the adaptation planning

and policy-making process (remember resourcefulness of urban poor),

– strengthen land administration and regulation.

“Soft” adaptation = policies and planning

= Supportive policy tools for CC consideration in architecture and planning- Energy and GHG emissions audits- Building codes and building

performance standards (e.g. 5 year performance/ reduction targets)

- Sustainable design guidelines (for constructing and renovating buildings)

- Driving innovation through public procurement

- EIAs- Land use / urban planning (e.g.

designation of flood storage areas)- Public health measures- Disaster planning

Soft” adaptation = green infrastructure

• Mangroves absorb 70-90% of the energy from a normal wave• Wetlands, mangroves and barrier beaches act as viable buffers

from storms and flooding, also during the 2004 tsunami in SEA• Mangroves in Vietnam were planted at a cost of USD 1.1

million (12000 ha) while saving annual dyke maintenance costs of USD 7.3 million (TEEB, 2009)

Adaptation and DRR

Climate change considerations can be integrated with disaster risk reduction (DRR) in cities

- develop climate change adaptation plans

- information / awareness raising- capacity building amongst all

relevant actors- early warning systems- structural: dykes and levies

Exploration: Policy context in Pakistan

• Policy level:– UNFCCC signed in 1992– Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2003– Kyoto Protocol signed in 2005– NCCP endorsed by Cabinet in 2012, weak on engagement and implementation

mechanisms– NCCP and cities: no mention under adaptation, for mitigation: waste, CDM, land

use planning, solar water heating• Implementation level:

– 14 CDM projects– Few explicit adaptation activities– Climate change and adaptation are not a priority– Little upscaling / lessons learnt– No local adaptation plans, no urban analyses and plans– Low capacity and knowledge on financing

Actors

• National and international policy makers• City Governments are Often First Responders and Primary

Local Planners• Households• Communities / Civil society• Planners• Construction Companies / Industry• Academia• ….

6. Group Work

Identifying alternatives:• For your project spaces, designs and practices,

consider what mitigation and adaptation options are available

• How are the outcomes different than without these measures? Are these ‘sustainable’?

• What additional inputs are required?

ANY REMAINING QUESTIONS, SUGGESTIONS, COMMENTS?

Miriam Kugele,Coordinator Climate Change

and Sustainable Energy,IUCN Pakistan

miriam.kugele@iucn.org

• Knowledge centre on cities and climate change: http://www.citiesandclimatechange.org/page-home-1.html

• ICLEI low-carbon cities: http://www.iclei.org/our-activities/our-agendas/low-carbon-city.html

• UNEP Builings and Climate Change: Summary for Decision Makers: www.unep.org/sbci/pdfs/SBCI-BCCSummary.pdf

• ICLEI: Sustainable Urban Energy Planning: http://www.uncsd2012.org/rio20//content/documents/Sustainable%20Urban%20Energy%20Planning.pdf

• Guide to Climate Change Adaptation in Cities: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTURBANDEVELOPMENT/Resources/336387-1318995974398/GuideClimChangeAdaptCities.pdf

• Planning for CC-Approach for urban planners: http://www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/11462_1_594565.pdf

• Local leadership for climate change action: http://www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/11463_1_594564.pdf

• Sustainable architecture blog: http://www.domusweb.it/en/architecture/really-sustainable/• Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network:

http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/our-work/current-work/developing-climate-change-resilience/asian-cities-climate-change-resilience

• RIBA: http://www.architecture.com/FindOutAbout/Sustainabilityandclimatechange/Sustainabilityandclimatechange.aspx

• Developing local CC plans (for cities): http://www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/11424_1_594548.pdf

• Adapting to Climate Change, Cities and the Urban Poor: http://intlhc.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Climate-Change-and-the-Urban-Poor.pdf