climate change and the economic crisis; is prosperity possible without growth?
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Climate Change and the Economic Crisis:Is prosperity possible without growth?
Dr. Peter A. Victor
26 March 2010
LowGrowCanada
Can we have full employment, no poverty, fiscal balance, reduced GHG emissions without relying on economic growth?
LowGrowCanada
You bet!
‘Business as usual’
GDP per Capita
GHG Emissions
Poverty
UnemploymentDebt to GDP Ratio
A low/no growth scenarioHow?• Macro demand and supply stabilized
(stable population and labour force)• Carbon price• Shorter work year• More generous anti-poverty programs
GDP per Capita
GHG EmissionsUnemployment
Poverty Debt to GDP Ratio
Generating a Canadian degrowth scenario
1. Maximum sustainable global GDP:– GDP with global ecological footprint = biocapacity– Larger if carbon footprint reduced
2. Maximum sustainable average GDP/capita:– Allow for increase in population
3. Canadian sustainable GDP/capita:– Some multiple of average GDP/capita
4. LowGrow simulation for Canada
Global biocapacity
Global ecological footprint
Carbon footprint
Global biocapacity
Global ecological footprint
Carbon footprintCarbon footprintfor ecological footprint = biocapacity
[1963]
[1995]
[1976]
[2004]
[1976]
Poverty
Unemployment
GHG Emissions
Debt to GDP Ratio
GDP per Capita
A Canadian degrowth scenario
The scenarios compared: growth drivers
The scenarios compared: growth drivers
Conclusions1. Simulations suggest that ‘prosperity’ does not require
GDP growth
2. Depends on level of ‘sustainable’ income which inpart depends on response to climate crisis
3. Changes in the economic system require clarification