CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE

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The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeThe United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

The UN FCCC is an intergovernmental treaty developed to address the problem of climate change. The Convention, which sets out an agreed framework for dealing with the issue, was negotiated from February 1991 to May 1992 and opened for signature at the June 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development at the Rio de Janeiro. Earth Summit. The UNFCCC entered into force on 21 March 1994, ninety days after the 50th country’s ratification had been received. By December 2007, it had been ratified by 192 countries.

Parties to the Convention continue to meet regularly to take stock of progress in

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Parties to the Convention continue to meet regularly to take stock of progress in implementing their obligations under the treaty, and to consider further actions to address the climate change threat.

The Kioto Protocol was first agreed in December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, although ongoing discussions were needed between 1998 and 2004 to finalize the “fine print” of the agreement. The Protocol obliges industrialized countries and countries of the former Soviet bloc (known collectively as “ Annex I Parties”) to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases by an average of about 5 % for the period 2008-2012 compared with 1990 levels.

Kyoto Protocol countries

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Annex B parties with binding targets in the second periodAnnex B parties with binding targets in the first p eriod but not the second

non-Annex B parties without binding targetsAnnex B parties with binding targets in the first p eriod but which withdrewAnnex B parties with binding targets in the first p eriod but which withdrew

from the Protocolfrom the ProtocolSignatories to the Protocol that have not ratified

Other UN member states and observers that are not p arty to the Protocol

Under the terms agreed in Kyoto, the Protocol only enters into force following ratification by 55 Parties to the UNFCCC, and if these 55 countries included a sufficient number of Annex I Parties that at least 55 % of that group’s total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 were represented.

Although the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the United States, rejected the Kyoto Treaty in 2001 after the election of President George W. Bush, a majority of other Annex I Parties, including Canada, Japan, and the countries of the European Union ratified the treaty.

In November 2004, the Russian Federation also ratified the Protocol, thus reaching the 55 % threshold. The Protocol finally entered into force as a legally-binding document on 16 February

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeThe United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

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threshold. The Protocol finally entered into force as a legally-binding document on 16 February 2005. By December 2007, the Protocol had been ratified by 177 countries, including Annex I parties representing 63.7 % of Annex I greenhouse gas emissions in 1990.

With the immediate future of the Kyoto Protocol secured by Russia’s ratification, an increasing focus of discussions since 2005 has been on the multilateral response to climate change post-2012, when the Protocol’s first commitment period expires.

At the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali in December 2007, delegates agreed on a “roadmap” for 2008 and 2009 designed to bring about an agreement by December 2009.

Conference of the PartiesParties to the UNFCCC continue to adopt decisions, review progress and consider further action through regular meetings of the Conference of the Parties (COP). The Conference of Parties is the highest-decision making body of the Convention, and usually meets annually.

The Conference of Parties and the Convention goals are supported by various bodies and organizations. This includes a Permanent Secretariat with various duties set out under Article 8 of the UNFCCC. Since 1996, the Secretariat has been based in Bonn, Germany, after an offer to host it was accepted by Parties to the first meeting of the COP in 1995.

5On May 17, 2010 Christiana Figueres from Costa Ric a

has been named as the following head of the secreta riatThe UN FCCC Secretariat, Bonn, Germany

Subsidiary Bodies

A number of subsidiary bodies also advise the COP. The Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA) links scientific, technical and technological assessments, the information provided by competent international bodies, and the policy-oriented needs of the COP.

The Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) was created to develop recommendations to assist the COP in reviewing and assessing implementation of the Convention and in preparing and implementing its decisions. The SBSTA and SBI usually meet twice each year, at the same time and venue. One of these two yearly meetings generally takes place in parallel with the COP. More recently, two additional bodies have been established. In late 2005, the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol was established.

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Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol was established.

In late 2007, the COP decided to establish the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action, under the COP.

The UNFCCC includes provision under Article 10 for a financial mechanism to support developing countries and countries with economies in transition to a market economy in implementing the Convention.

Parties to the UNFCCC decided that the Global Environment Facility (GEF) should act as the financial mechanism, given its expertise in this area.

Other financial resources for implementing the Convention are also available through the Special Climate Change Fund, the Least Developed Countries Fund, and the Adaptation Fund, as well as through donor countries and agencies.

Expert Groups and Other Constituted Bodies

The Convention is also supported by a number of expert groups and other constituted bodies. These include the Consultative group of experts (CGE) on national communications from “non-Annex I” Parties (a group composed mostly of developing countries).

Other bodies include the Least Developed Country Expert Group (LEG), the Expert Group on Technology Transfer, and the Executive Board of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation Supervisory Committee.

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The Conference of the Parties also cooperates with, and is supported by, numerous otherinternational organizations and other groups, including scientific bodies, UN agencies, and other conventions.

These include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which publishes comprehensive reviews on climate change science every five to six years, as well as other technical reports and papers.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a scientific intergovernmental body set up at the request of

member governments.

It was established in 1988 by two UN organizations, - the World Meteorological Organisation and the

UN Environmental Programme.

Its mission is to provide comprehensive scientific

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Its mission is to provide comprehensive scientific assessments of current scientific, technical and socio-

economic information worldwide about the risk of climate change.

Thousands of scientists and other experts contribute to writing and reviewing reports, which are reviewed by

representatives from all the governments, with a

Summary for Policymakers being subject to line-by-line approval by all participating governments.

Typically this involves the governments of more than 120 countries.

The World Meteorological Organization Headquarters in Geneva.

IPCC Secretariat is hosted by WMO.

Oslo, 10 December 2007The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. were awarded the Nobel

Peace Prize "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change".

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India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (blue) and Ind ian Minister of Environment and Forests Jaraim Ramesh (behind) during a multilateral meetin g with U.S. President Barack Obama, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, Brazilian President Lula da Sil va and South African President Jacob Zuma at

the United Nations Climate Change Conference.

Connie Hedegaard, former President

of the UN Climate Change

Conference 2009 in Copenhagen.

Now EU commissioner for Climate

Action.

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Information

Date: 29 Nov.–10 Dec. 2010

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Date: 29 Nov.–10 Dec. 2010

Location: Cancun, Mexico

Participants: UN FCCC member countries

COPCOP--16 decides:16 decides:- to strengthen in relation to a global average temperature rise of 1.5°C ,

- to shift paradigm towards building a low-carbon society, - to look forward to a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol,

- to provide resources, approaching USD 30 billion for the period 2010-2012,- to affirm a goal of mobilizing jointly USD 100 billion per year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries,

- to establish a Green Climate Fund, to be designated as an operating entity of the financial mechanism of the Convention,- to establish a Technology Mechanism, which will consist of a Technology Mechanism Committee, a Climate Technology

Centre and Network.

Conference outcomesKyoto Protocol has been prolonged up to 2020.

The Conference produced a package of documents collectively titled The Doha Climate Gateway over objections from

Date:26 November 2012 –

8 December 2012

Location: Doha, Qatar

Attendance: 17 000

The Conference produced a package of documents collectively titled The Doha Climate Gateway over objections from

Russia and other countries at the session.

The documents collectively contained:

An eight year extension of the Kyoto Protocol until 2020 limited in scope to only 15% of the global carbon dioxide

emissions due to the lack of participation of Canada, Japan, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, New Zealand and the United States

and due to the fact that developing countries like China (the world's largest emitter), India and Brazil are not subject to

any emissions reductions under the Kyoto Protocol.

Language on loss and damage, formalized for the first time in the conference documents.

The conference made little progress towards the funding of the Green Climate Fund.

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10 million Facebook likes

for continuation of the

Kyoto protocol

COPCOP--19; 19; 1111 -- 2222 NovNov 20132013

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The United Nations climate conference in Warsaw marked a step forward in the international fight against climate change.

The conference agreed a time-plan for countries to table their contributions to reducing or limiting greenhouse gas emissions under a new global climate agreement to be adopted in 2015. It also agreed ways to

accelerate efforts to deepen emission cuts over the rest of this decade, and to set up a mechanism to address losses and damage caused by climate change in vulnerable developing countries.

The National Stadium in Warsaw, the main venue of the conference

Over 10,000 participants from 189 countries have registered to attend the conference, but only 134 ministers announced participation. Four countries that are among the most vulnerable to climate change are represented by their president or prime minister: Tuvalu, Nauru, Ethiopia, and Tanzania.

The 20th session of the Conference of the Parties and the 10th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto

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Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol will be held from 1 to 12 December, 2014 .

COP 20/CMP 10 will be hosted by the Government of Peru, in Lima, Peru.

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1. Does climate agreement in Paris sends a signal that fossil fuel era has expired ?

2. Does climate agreement in Paris requires all countries to immediately begin the implementation of the National climate policy ?

3. Does climate agreement in Paris will provide global solidarity and require that polluters pay for the damage caused ?

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Heads of delegations at the 2015 UN Climate Change C onference in Paris

The Paris Agreement is an agreement within the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) dealing with greenhouse gases emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance starting in the year 2020.

An agreement on the language of the treaty was negotiated by representatives of

Paris Agreement

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An agreement on the language of the treaty was negotiated by representatives of 195 countries at the 21st Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC in Paris and adopted by consensus on 12 December 2015.

It was opened for signature on 22 April 2016 (Earth Day) and 177 UNFCCC members signed the treaty, 15 of which ratified it.

It has not entered into force.

The head of the Paris Conference, France's foreign minister Laurent Fabius, said this "ambitious and balanced" plan is a "historic turning point" in the goal of reducing global warming.

Party or signatory % for ratification Signed

Australia 1.46% 22 April 2016

Bhutan 0.00% 22 April 2016

Canada 1.95% 22 April 2016

China 20.09% 22 April 2016

France 1.34% 22 April 2016

Germany 2.56% 22 April 2016

India 4.10% 22 April 2016

Indonesia 1.49% 22 April 2016

Iran 1.30% 22 April 2016

Italy 1.18% 22 April 2016

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Italy 1.18% 22 April 2016

Japan 3.79% 22 April 2016

Latvia 0.03% 22 April 2016

Lithuania 0.05% 22 April 2016

Mexico 1.70% 22 April 2016

Poland 1.06% 22 April 2016

Russia 7.53% 22 April 2016

South Africa 1.46% 22 April 2016

Turkey 1.24% 22 April 2016

Ukraine 1.04% 22 April 2016

United Kingdom 1.55% 22 April 2016

United States 17.89% 22 April 2016

20Signing by John Kerry in UN General Assembly Hall f or the United States

Marrakech Climate Change Conference

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The twenty-second session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 22) and the twelfth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 12) will be held in Bab Ighli, Marrakech,

Morocco from 7-18 November 2016.

The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary surface is absorbed by atmospheric greenhouse gases , and is re-radiated in all directions. Since part of this re-radiation is back towards the surface, energy is transferred to the surface and the lower atmosphere. As a result, the temperature there is higher than it would be if direct heating by solar radiation were the only warming mechanism.

The greenhouse effect was discovered by French mathematician Joseph Fourier in 1824, first reliably experimented on by British physicist John Tyndall in 1858, and first reported quantitatively by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius in 1896.

Greenhouse effectGreenhouse effect

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If an ideal thermally conductive blackbody was the same distance from the Sun as the Earth is, it would have a temperature of about 5.3 °C . However, since the Earth reflects about 30% of the incoming sunlight, the planet's effective temperature is about −18 °C, or 33°C below the actual surface temperature of about 15 °C.

The mechanism that produces this difference between the actual surface temperature and the effective temperature is due to the atmosphere and is known as the greenhouse effect.

Svante August Arrhenius(1859–1927)

Greenhouse effectGreenhouse effect

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A representation of the exchanges of energy between the source (the Sun), the Earth's surface, the Earth's atmosphere, and the ultimate sink outer space. The ability of the atmosphere to capture and recycle energy

emitted by the Earth surface is the defining characteristic of the greenhouse effect.

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SUN EFFECTSSUN EFFECTS

Sun activities cycles have frequency – 11, 36 un 180 years.

Sun activity cycles can change global temperature by 0,33 °C - 0,45 °C.

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un 180 years. temperature by 0,33 °C - 0,45 °C.

ORBITAL VARIATIONSORBITAL VARIATIONS

Slight variations in Earth's orbit lead to changes in the seasonal distribution of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and how it is distributed across the globe.

The three types of orbital variations are variations in Earth's eccentricity, changes in the tilt angle of Earth’s axis of rotation, and precession of Earth's axis. Combined together, these produce Milankovitch cycles which have a large impact on climate and are notable for their correlation to glacial and interglacial periods, their correlation with the advance and retreat of the Sahara, and for their appearance in the stratigraphic record.

The IPPC notes that Milankovitch cycles drove the ice age cycles; CO2 followed temperature change "with a lag of some hundreds of years"; and that as a feedback amplified temperature change.

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Effects of apsidal Effects of apsidal precession onprecession on

the seasonsthe seasons

Impacts on the overall greenhouse effect

The contribution of each gas to the greenhouse effect is affected by the characteristics of that gas, its abundance, and any indirect effects it may cause. For example, the direct effect of a

mass of methane is about 72 times stronger than the same mass of carbon dioxide over a 20-year time frame, but it is present in much smaller concentrations so that its total direct effect is

smaller, in part due to its shorter atmospheric lifetime. On the other hand, in addition to its direct impact, methane has a large, indirect effect because it contributes to ozone formation.

Gas nameChemicalformula

Lifetime(years)

Global warming potential (GWP) for given time horizon

20-yr 100-yr 500-yr

Carbon dioxide

CO2 30–95 1 1 1

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Methane CH4 12 72 25 7.6

Nitrous oxide N2O 114 289 298 153

CFC-12 CCl2F2 100 11 000 10 900 5 200

HCFC-22 CHClF2 12 5 160 1 810 549

Tetrafluoroethane

CF4 50 000 5 210 7 390 11 200

Hexafluorethane

C2F6 10 000 8 630 12 200 18 200

Sulfur hexafluoride

SF6 3 200 16 300 22 800 32 600

Nitrogen trifluoride

NF3 740 12 300 17 200 20 700

CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere if halfof global-warming emissions

are not absorbed.(NASA simulation; 9.11. 2015.)

28Nitrogen dioxide 2014 – global

air quality levels(released 14.12.2015.)

Current greenhouse gas concentrations

GasPre-1750

troposphericconcentration

Recenttroposphericconcentration

Absolute increase

since 1750

Percentageincrease

since 1750

Increasedradiative forcing

(W/m2)

Carbondioxide(CO2)

280 ppm 395.4 ppm 115.4 ppm 41.2% 1.88

Methane (CH4) 700 ppb1893 ppb/1762 ppb

1193 ppb /1062 ppb

170.4% /151.7%

0.49

Nitrousoxide(N2O)

270 ppb326 ppb/324 ppb

56 ppb /54 ppb

20.7% /20.0%

0.17

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2

Troposphericozone (O3)

237 ppb 337 ppb 100 ppb 42% 0.4

Aside from purely human-produced synthetic halocarbons, most greenhouse gases have both natural and human-caused sources. During the pre-industrial Halocene, concentrations of existing gases were roughly constant. In the industrial era, human activities have added greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests.The 2007 Fourth Assesment Report compiled by the IPCC noted that "changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and solar radiation alter the energy balance of the climate system", and concluded that "increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations is very likely to have caused most of the increases in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century”. “Most of" is defined as more than 50 %.

Variations in COVariations in CO 22, temperature and dust from the , temperature and dust from the ““VostokVostok” ” ice ice core over the last 450,000 yearcore over the last 450,000 year

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“Vostok” – a Russian Antarctic research station at t he southern Pole of Cold, with the lowest reliably measured natural temperature on Earth of − 89.2 °C

31Linda Leja, 2005

GHG emissions per person in the WorldGHG emissions per person in the World

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Ranking of the world's top ten emitters of GHGRanking of the world's top ten emitters of GHG ’’ssThe first figure is the country's or region's emissions as a percentage of the global total. The second

figure is the country's/region's per-capita emissions, in units of tons of GHG per-capita.

1. China – 17%, 5.82. United States – 16%, 24.13. European Union – 11%, 10.64. Indonesia – 6%, 12.9 5. India – 5%, 2.16. Russia – 5%, 14.97. Brazil – 4%, 10.08. Japan – 3%, 10.6

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8. Japan – 3%, 10.69. Canada – 2%, 23.210. Mexico – 2%, 6.4

Fossil-Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions Annex I (red)countries vs Non-Annex I countries (blue) 1990–2007

Fulfilment of the Kyoto aimsFulfilment of the Kyoto aims

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GHG emissions in the EUGHG emissions in the EU

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Kyoto is intended to cut global emissions of Kyoto is intended to cut global emissions of greenhouse gasesgreenhouse gases

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Increasing of the global COIncreasing of the global CO 22 concentrationconcentrationThe last four complete years of the Mauna Loa CO 2 record plus the

current year are shown. Data are reported as a dry air mole fraction define d as the number of

molecules of carbon dioxide divided by the number o f all molecules in air, including CO 2itself, after water vapor has been

removed. The mole fraction is expressed as parts per million (ppm).

Example: 0.000400 is expressed as 400 ppm.

Last updated: April 5, 20

October 23: 401.65 ppm

October 22: 401.72 ppm

September 2016: 401.03 ppm

September 2015: 397.63 ppm

Ranking of the world's top ten emitters of GHGRanking of the world's top ten emitters of GHG ’’ssThe first figure is the country's or region's emissions as a percentage of the global total. The second

figure is the country's/region's per-capita emissions, in units of tons of GHG per-capita.

1. China – 17%, 5.82. United States – 16%, 24.13. European Union – 11%, 10.64. Indonesia – 6%, 12.9 5. India – 5%, 2.16. Russia – 5%, 14.97. Brazil – 4%, 10.08. Japan – 3%, 10.6

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8. Japan – 3%, 10.69. Canada – 2%, 23.210. Mexico – 2%, 6.4

Fossil-Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions Annex I (red)countries vs Non-Annex I countries (blue) 1990–2007

COCO2 2 emissionsemissions

2000. 2000.

402025. 2025.

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On May 2, 2013after nightfall shut down photosynthesis for the day in Hawaii, carbon dioxide levels in theatmosphere touched 400 parts-per-million there for thefirst time in at least 800,000 years. Near the summit of volcanicMauna Loa—where a member of the Keeling family has kept watch since 1958 – sensors measured this record throughsunrise the following day. Levels have continued to dance near that benchmark in recent days, registering above 400ppm for the first time in eons after midnight on May 7. When themeasurements started the daily average could be aslow as 315 ppm, already up from a pre-industrial average of around 280 ppm.

This measurement is just the hourly average of CO2 levels high in the Hawaiian sky, but this family’s figures carrymore weight than those made at other stations in the world as they have faithfully kept the longest record of atmosphericCO2. Arctic weather stations also hit the hourly 400 ppm mark last spring and this one. Regardless, the hourly levels atMauna Loa will soon drop as spring kicks in across the northern hemisphere, trees budding forth an army of leaveshungrily sucking CO2 out of the sky.

Climate Change Climate Change –– Natural and Antrophogenic Processe sNatural and Antrophogenic Processes

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GLOBAL WARMINGGLOBAL WARMING

Climate is the statistical summary of weather and meteorological phenomena and occurrences over a long period of time, ranging from a few years or decades to thousands of years.

There is no doubt that human activities (air, water and soil pollution, overpopulation) do influence climate .

A sharp increase in the concentration of various gases in the atmosphere is indicative of the increase ofanthropogenic influence.

It is evident that the concentrations of gases were considerably lower in the period when industrial production was not yet intense, while they have substantially increased during the last centuries.

43A new climate study shows that since the mid-1950s, global average temperatures over land have risen b y 0.9 degrees

Celsius , confirming previous studies that have found a cli mate that has been warming – in fits and starts – sin ce around 1900.

Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average (e.g., more or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change

may be limited to a specific region or may occur across the whole Earth.

The concentration of greenhouse gases hasincreased just within the last 500 years –especially with beginning with the industrial revolution and affecting climate change.

Consequently, the current climate change process could be untimely and unnatural, and it may also lead to many global

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and it may also lead to many global climate problems that we already witness today.

The phrase ‘global warming’ denotes not only the increase of the Earth’s average temperature, usually measured as the average temperature per year, but also substantial changes in the entire climate system.

Top: Arid ice age climate.Middle: Atlantic Period, warm and wet.Bottom: Potential vegetation in climate now.

Evidence for climatic changeEvidence for climatic change

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Comparisons between Asian Monsoons from 200 A.D. to 2000 A.D. (staying in the background on other plots), Northern Hemisphere temperature, Alpine glacier extent (vertically inverted as marked), and human history as

noted by the U.S.

Volcanic eruptions release gases and particulates into the atmosphere. Eruptions large enough to affect climate occur on average several times per century, and cause cooling (by partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's surface) for a period of a few years.

The eruption of Moun Pinatubo in 1991, the second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century (after the 1912 eruption of Navarupta) affected the climate substantially. Global temperatures decreased by about 0.5 °C.

The eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 caused the “Year Without a

VOLCANISMVOLCANISM

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The eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 caused the “Year Without a Summer”. Much larger eruptions, known as large igneous (vulkaniskas) provinces, occur only a few times every hundred million years, but may cause global warming and mass extinctions.

A review of published studies indicates that annual volcanic emissions of carbon dioxide, including amounts released from mid-ocean ridges, volcanic arcs, and hot spot volcanoes, are only the equivalent of 3 to 5 days of human caused output.

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In atmospheric temperature from 1979 to 2010, determined by NASA satellites, effects

appear from aerosols released by major volcanic eruptions.

Mount Mount Tambora, Tambora, IndonesiaIndonesia

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The estimated volcanic ash fall regions during the 1815 eruption. The red areas show thickness of volcanic ash fall.

The outermost region (1 cm thickness) reached Borneo and the Sulawesi islands.

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Along with grain prices deteriorated

criminal situation and greed.

Here – hanged black marketeer.

" Death by the wayside " - symbolic picture that reflects the dire

reality in many parts of Europe at a time when Tambor volcano ashes

blocked the Sun's rays.

Glaciers are considered among the most sensitive indicators of climate change. Their size is determined by a mass balance between snow input and melt output. As temperatures warm, glaciers retreat unless snow precipitation increases to make up for the additional melt; the converse is also true.

A world glacier inventory has been compiled since the 1970s, initially based mainly on aerial photographs and maps but now relying more on satellites. This compilation tracks more than 100,000 glaciers covering a total area of

GGLACIERSLACIERS

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glaciers covering a total area of approximately 240,000 km 2, and preliminary estimates indicate that the remaining ice cover is around 445,000 km2.

The World Glacier Monitoring Service collects data annually on glacier retreat and glacier mass balance. From this data, glaciers worldwide have been found to be shrinking significantly, with strong glacier retreats in the 1940s, stable or growing conditions during the 1920s and 1970s, and again retreating from the mid 1980s to present.

AletschAletsch

glacierglacierThe largest glacier

of the Alps

(Bernese Alps),

in Switzerland.

51The retreat of Aletsch Glacier in in 1979, 1991 and 2002.

Melting of the mountain glaciersWhitechuck glacier, the Cascade Range, US.

1973.

522006, glacier retreat by 1,9 km.

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MountMount KilimanjaroKilimanjaro

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55Arctic sea ice loss

Permafrost or cryotic soil is soil at or below the freezing point of water 0 °C for two or more years. Most permafrost is located in high latitudes (in and around the Arctic and Antarctic regions ), but alpine permafrost may exist at high altitudes in much lower latitudes.

Permafrost accounts for 0.022 % of total water on earth and exists in 24 % of exposed land in the Northern Hemisphere. It also occurs subsea on the continental shelves of the continents surrounding the Arctic , portions of which were exposed during the last glacial period.

A global temperature rise of 1.5 °C above current le vels would be enough to start the thawing of permafrost in Siberia, according to of scientists.

Thickness of the active layer varies by year and location, but is typically 0.6–4 m thick. In areas ofcontinuous permafrost and harsh winters, the depth of the permafrost can be as much as 1,493 m in thenorthern Lena and Yana river basins in Siberia.

PERMAFROSTPERMAFROST

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The map shows the general location and direction of the warm surface (red) and cold deep water (blue) currents of the thermohaline circulati on.

Salinity is represented by colour in units of the P ractical Salinity Scale.

Low values (blue) are less saline, while high value s (orange) are more saline.

The Gulf streamThe Gulf stream

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Average global sea surface temperature, 1880–2015

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UN IPPC alternativeUN IPPC alternative models for the prospective models for the prospective development of societydevelopment of society and climate changeand climate change

▪ Scenario A1 (“zero” growth ). Greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere remains at the level of year 2000; there is no economic and population growth, and climate change is driven by the climate system inertia only.

▪ Scenario B1 (sustainable development ). Natural growth continues until the middle of the 21st century, then the population declines; the economic development continues.

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development continues.

▪ Scenario A2 (“everything goes on as before” ). This scenario describes a differentiated world, in which each nation relies on its own powers and resources; the population is constantly growing; economic development is regionally-oriented.

Scenario A1B (technological progress ). This scenario describes a world of rapid economic development, population growth and technological progress that allows to reduce the consumption of material resources.

Sustainable development

scenario

Technological

POSSIBLE CLIMATE CHANGES IN FUTUREPOSSIBLE CLIMATE CHANGES IN FUTURE

Technological progress scenario

“Business as usual” scenario

oC

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TEMPERATURE AND SEA LEVEL CHANGESTEMPERATURE AND SEA LEVEL CHANGES

The climate change future scenarios predict that the air temperature will rise by 1–8 degreeson average, and the warming rate is projected to be higher than it was in the 20th

century. Global warming will definitely affect the average

rainfall on the Earth.Along with the increase in temperature, the

moisture concentration and hence rainfallwill also increase.

Precipitation will not be regular, and there will be a risk of drought periods in many regions of

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a risk of drought periods in many regions of the Earth. Rainfall changes can affect the Earth’s processes, for example, heavyprecipitation in polar regions may affect thestability of glaciers and ocean currents.

Both rainfall changes and global warming affect the global sea level. As the Earth’s temperature rises, the ice sheets of the polar region begin to melt, and it turns out that the permafrost boundary is not permanent at all.

This melting causes the water level in oceans to rise. The climate change models project that, until 2100, the water level in seas and oceans will have risen by 0.09 to 0.88 metres .

Confirmed and projected sea level changes.

This figure shows the actual and possible changes

in the water level in seas and oceans in the

period between 2000 and 2100.

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TemperatureTemperatureand and

precipitationprecipitation

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precipitationprecipitationchange bychange by

2050.2050.

Climate change and coastal processesClimate change and coastal processes

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ClimateClimate ChangesChanges

Climate change can seriously impede the agricultural production. The mean air

Water cycles between ocean,

atmosphere and glaciers.

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Climate change can seriously impede the agricultural production. The mean air temperature increases and unstable winters affect the plant kingdom. Due to thewarm weather, many plants start to bloom earlier in spring and are destroyed by sudden frosts .

Although late frosts have also occurred before the big climate change, in present-day warm winters the plants start to become green well before spring begins. Many countries of the world that base their economies mos tly on agricultureincur losses and may even face an economic crisis du e to climate change.

The irregularity of rainfall also causes serious damage, since both heavy rains and draught badly affect crops.

The Third World countries that have not accumulated s ufficient reserves for emergencies may experience even greater problems wit h providing means of subsistence to their residents.

Climate change and Climate change and

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Climate change and Climate change and productivity of productivity of

agricultural speciesagricultural speciesbefore 2050before 2050

wheatwheatcorncornrice rice

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Global Climate Change in the WorldGlobal Climate Change in the World

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Average annual temperature in the Baltic Sea region : Average annual temperature in the Baltic Sea region : (A) (A) –– (1961.(1961.–– 2000.); (B) 2000.); (B) –– 2100.2100.

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ClimateClimate ChangesChangesTemperature rise in the Northern Hemisphere and particularly in the Baltic Sea Region does not occur evenly

throughout the year; for the most part, only the winter months have become warmer .The effects of global warming are not equally intense in all regions of the Earth. Global warming has affected the

rainfall patterns – they have recently become more irregular, leaving some regions with almost no precipitation and causing long drought periods, while elsewhere rainfalls have become much more frequent than before.

In some regions, such as China, long drought periods alternate with severe floods, seriously impeding the agricultural production.

Precipitation is the source of freshwater which flo ws into the seas and oceans, changing the freshwate r and saltwater proportion.

These changes, in turn, affect the warm ocean current patterns. The mean sea level rises due to the increased precipitation and the melting of glaciers, ice cups and ice sheets .

As a consequence, the habitable dry land areas decrease . Global warming and the related climate change can also cause serious economic problems.

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Average monthly temperature

rise in Riga, 1851–2008.

CostalCostal changeschanges atat thethe lastlast 70 70 yearsyears, , G. G. EberhardsEberhards, 2004., 2004.

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North Europe and Baltic North Europe and Baltic Sea in winterSea in winter

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Take care !Take care !