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Climate Change Facts: Should Oklahoma Be Concerned?

Prepared for Water Science Seminar Oklahoma Water Resources Board

May 14, 2009

Ken Crawford, Director Oklahoma Climatological Survey Regents’ Professor of Meteorology

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t t“Th i i f d f h“The provision of adequate fresh water resources and ecosystems will be one ofthe most critical and potentially contentiousissues facing society and governments at g y g all levels during the 21st century.” – AMS Statement on Water Resources in the 21st

Century

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Oklahoma’s water supply hasOklahoma s water supply has been controlled by the

NATURAL VARIABILITYNATURAL VARIABILITY of the climate system

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Oklahoma’s Hydrologic Cycle

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In a typical ‘dry’ season (5-inch deficit)

In a typical ‘wet’ season (5-inch surplus)

We Plan For ‘Normal’ Seasons…But…

( ) ( )

Most Surplus Runs Off

Only a small amount of the Draw 5 inches from deep water

Only a small amount of the surplus re‐charges deep water

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Oklahoma's Warm Season (Apr-Sep) Rainfall, in inches: 1895-2006

There’s nothing normal about “normal”!

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30 1/3 of seasons average 26.2”

15

20

Long‐term average 21.3”

1/3 of seasons average 16 7”

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1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

16.7”

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Duration of wet period: 15-20 years … versus the dominant 8-12 year cycle

Consistency of wet period: Most of the 80s & 90s confined to a narrow range

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“Water is the delivery mechanism of most climate change impacts”

Kathy JacobsKathy Jacobs Executive Director

Arizona Water Institute

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A Changing Climate

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Climate Change?Climate Change? YES!

G t R d !Get Ready!

Don’t Panic!

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(NASA Animation, release Oct 7, 2008)

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Cli t Ch ?Climate Change?

CO tells usCO2 tells us -YES!

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t t

OU

“The projected rate of warming is much larger than observed changes duringchanges during the 20th century and is very likely to be without precedent d i lduring at least the last 10,000 years.” Dr. David Karoly, OU

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Cli t Ch ?Climate Change? ScientistsScientists tell us –

YES!

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19791979

20062006

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Cli t Ch ?Climate Change?

Ice tells usIce tells us -YES!

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Change driver naturalgor human?

BOTH!

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What can we expect?

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Extreme Temperatures Will Increase

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3°C = 5.4°F

(by 2080, from IPCC)

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Annual precipitation across the USA will increase in the northeast and decrease in the southwest

High Confidence

Average of 19 different climate models (2007)

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0.25mm/day = 3.6”/year

(by 2080, from IPCC)

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Climate ModelingClimate Modeling —— Where It Is HeadedWhere It Is Headed •• EstimatingEstimating uncertaintiesuncertainties inin globalglobal andand regionalregional climateclimate changechange

projectionsprojections usingusing aa largelarge multimulti--membermember climateclimate modelmodel ensembleensemble

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Initial Simulations From ClimatePrediction.net

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Glo

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CPDNCPDN InitialInitial SSimulationsimulations

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Projections for Oklahoma as we scale down

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Temperature

• Warming of ~2-4°F annually by the 2020s (Middle Road) • Warming of ~4-7°F by the 2090s (Middle Road) • Summer becomes longer and spring weather arrives earlier. • Winters warm - longer frost-free periods and a longer growing Winters warm longer frost free periods and a longer growing

season.

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-

•Rain-free periods will increase but

Precipitation Rain free periods will increase, but individual rainfall events will be more intense

• Increased year-round evaporation from the Increased year round evaporation from the ground and transpiration from green vegetation

•Drought frequency and severity increasesg q y y

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Oklahoma’s Water Future?

Fewer (but more intense) precipitation events:• More runoff, more flooding • Crop damagep g • More pollution from runoff • Increased erosion • Possibly less water available, even if yearly

totals increase

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We Conclude The Following To Be True: • The earth’s climate has warmed during the last 100 years

The OCS Position on Water Resources & Climate Change

The earth s climate has warmed during the last 100 years and will continue to warm for the foreseeable future.

• The citizens of Oklahoma, more and more, will come to depend upon and require adequate supplies of fresh water.

• Because our future lies in access to fresh water, we must exercise due diligence to protect our water resources.

• Whatever our future, water management plans developedfor a warmer climate must measure and understand the water budget of Oklahoma and develop policies accordinglyaccordingly.

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PreparationPreparation management better than

crisis management

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Climate Change?Climate Change? YES!

Get Ready!Get Ready!

Don’t Panic!

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Th k fThanks for Your Time!

Ken Crawford kcrawford@mesonet.org

Ph: 405 325 2541Ph: 405-325-2541