climate change ii: impacts bio 415/615. questions 1. what are 2 ways plants and animals have been...
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Climate change II:impacts
Bio 415/615
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Questions
1. What are 2 ways plants and animals have been influenced by climate change over the last 50 years?
2. What is phenology, and how does it indicate global warming?
3. How are corals influenced by global warming?
4. Do plant communities respond to more CO2 in the atmosphere? How are such experiments conducted?
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Review• The world has warmed about 1 C in the
past 100 years (compared to 5-7 C in the past 20,000 yrs at mid latitudes)
• The world will continue to warm rapidly, perhaps by 5 C over the next 100 years
• What will happen to plant and animal populations over the next few human generations?
• How to plan for the possibilities in the management of species and communities?
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Has recent climate change influenced biodiversity?
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Hickling et al. 2005 (UK)
Has warming influenced species distributions?
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Will warming influence species distributions?
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Iverson & Prasad (USFS)
Forest composition change in the Eastern US by 2100 (current is upper left). NY will resemble current Tennessee, Missouri (oak hickory forests).
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Sugar maple: gone?!
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Black cherry: ‘sparse’?!
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Beech: contraction?
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Sweetgum: can it move?
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Longleaf pine: can it move?
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Phenology (IPCC 2007)
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Phenology (IPCC 2007)
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Coral bleaching is a stress response in reef-forming corals, related to a loss of their photosynthetic (algal) symbiont.
Between 1876-1979, only 3 bleaching events were recorded in the world. Since 1979, there have been dozens of reports.
Donner et al. (2007) report that “anthropogenic warming may have increased the probability of significant thermal stress events for corals [in the Caribbean] by an order of magnitude.”
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Mountain meadow warmingHarte and Shaw 1995
Shrubs increase with warming
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Arctic warmingWalker et al. 2006
Shrubs increase with warming
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Buxton Climate Change Study
Est. 1993
Buxton, England; 370 m a.s.l., 53 20’ N Lat
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+ Temp/water interactions
3x3 m plots, 5 replicates
Long-term climate manipulations
Summer watering (June-Sept)
Winter heating (3 °C )
Summer drought (July-Aug)
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No progressive change in composition after 13 years in 3x3 m plots
Grime, Fridley et al. 2008 PNAS
Major life form groups unchanged
Species composition relatively stable
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Fine-scale (100 cm2) vegetation and
soil surveys
x
x
xx
x
x x
x
x 10 cm
10 cm
20 cm
240 quadrats (8 per 3x3m plot)
3 m
3 m
80% microsite 80% microsite variance variance withinwithin plots plots
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13 out of 25 species exhibited microsite responses in controls (GLM P<0.05)
Plantago lanceolata
Potentilla erecta
Deep site specialists
Abun
danc
e (c
over
cla
ss)
Sanguisorba minor
Thymus polytrichus
Briza media
Shallow site specialists
Generalized Additive Models (GAM)
Fridley et al. 2011 Global Change Biology
Abun
danc
e (c
over
cla
ss)
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FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment)
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What do FACE experiments reveal about enhanced CO2 effects on forests?
DeLucia et al. 1999
Young forest:
enhanced growth
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Mature forest: CO2 effects?
Koerner et al. 2005
Mature forest: no consistent difference
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Will warming facilitate biological invasions?
Walther et al. 2002
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How do we manage ecosystems if the climate is
changing?• Corridors?• Assisted migration?• Manage for local adaptation? Genetic
diversity?• Keep out invaders? For how long?• What about plants and animals that
will have no suitable new climates?• Focus on processes rather than
species?