climate change impacts actions needed to protect the water resources of the delaware river basin...
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Actions Needed To ProtectActions Needed To ProtectThe Water Resources The Water Resources
of the of the Delaware River BasinDelaware River Basin
Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhDJessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD
River Basin PlannerRiver Basin Planner
Delaware River Basin CommissionDelaware River Basin Commission
Carol R. Collier, PP, AICPCarol R. Collier, PP, AICP
Executive DirectorExecutive Director
Delaware River Basin CommissionDelaware River Basin Commission
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
ExtremeExtreme water resource water resource managementmanagement
Delaware RiverDelaware River Watershed Facts Watershed Facts
Basin + Bay =13,539 miBasin + Bay =13,539 mi²² 12,757 mi12,757 mi² ² DrainageDrainage
(~ 0.4 of 1% of the continental US) (~ 0.4 of 1% of the continental US) 330 miles: Longest undammed 330 miles: Longest undammed
river east of the Mississippiriver east of the Mississippi ~ 50% basin land is in PA~ 50% basin land is in PA Over Over 15 million15 million people rely on people rely on
the waters of the basin the waters of the basin
(~ 5% of the US population) (~ 5% of the US population)
or +6 inches per year since 2004
on average
In last 6 years, cumulative departure from “normal” >40inches
Drought of the 1960’sDrought of the 1960’s
Cannonsville Reservoir December 2001
DROUGHT: Extreme Water Supply Planning
Serial Flooding: Extreme Flood Mitigation
3 record-breaking floods in 22 months:
•Sept 2004
•April 2005
•June 2006
DRY WET
Variability within ExtremesVariability within Extremes
Rutgers – Office of NJ State Climatologist…and Changing Averages
Flow Target @Trenton= 3000 cfs
Philadelphia Intake
Salt Line Range
19641964
20022002
Prepared by Philadelphia Water Dept
Critical Water Critical Water Supply AreasSupply Areas
2 critical ground water areas
Special withdrawal limits/ review thresholds
Emphasis on conjunctive use - surface water alternative is crucial
Montague
Trenton
Operating PlansOperating Plans NYC Delaware Basin NYC Delaware Basin
Reservoirs drive the Basin-Reservoirs drive the Basin-wide Operating Planwide Operating Plan
DRBC storage in 2 Army DRBC storage in 2 Army Corps reservoirs drive Lower Corps reservoirs drive Lower Basin Operating PlanBasin Operating Plan
BeltzvilleBeltzville Blue MarshBlue Marsh
Merrell Creek ReservoirMerrell Creek Reservoir
DRBC Drought DRBC Drought Emergency Actions Emergency Actions can mobilize can mobilize additional 69 BG for additional 69 BG for flow augmentationflow augmentation
ExtremeExtreme issuesissues
Is there sufficient storage to meet increases Is there sufficient storage to meet increases in demand…under a prolonged drought?in demand…under a prolonged drought?
Is 3000 cfs target sufficient to support Is 3000 cfs target sufficient to support oysters, repel salt front and keep intakes oysters, repel salt front and keep intakes safe?safe?
Is 69 BG of emergency storage enough to Is 69 BG of emergency storage enough to meet flow needs…in the next drought meet flow needs…in the next drought emergency?emergency?
What more does climate change add to the What more does climate change add to the stressors in our management scenarios?stressors in our management scenarios?
Assumptions for Future Assumptions for Future ScenariosScenarios
Increasing Temperatures: > 2- 4Increasing Temperatures: > 2- 4o o CC Equal or Increased Precipitation: > 7 – 9%Equal or Increased Precipitation: > 7 – 9% Greater Greater IntensityIntensity of Storms of Storms More Precip. in Winter MonthsMore Precip. in Winter Months Warmer Summers (Higher Demand & ET)Warmer Summers (Higher Demand & ET) Working at the ExtremesWorking at the Extremes
Floods and DroughtsFloods and Droughts Increase in Sea Level RiseIncrease in Sea Level Rise
Inundation (height + tidal range change)Inundation (height + tidal range change) Storm SurgeStorm Surge Salinity IncreasesSalinity Increases
Changes in Snowpack and SnowmeltChanges in Snowpack and Snowmelt Less snow in the winter - affects water supply for many who depend Less snow in the winter - affects water supply for many who depend
on the melting of snowpack as a water source.on the melting of snowpack as a water source. Timing of snowmelt - earlier snowmelt may require changes to how Timing of snowmelt - earlier snowmelt may require changes to how
water supply reservoirs are managed.water supply reservoirs are managed.
Sea Level Rise
Global Sea Level RiseRegional Changes gravity, ocean currents and ocean density subsidence
Model0.5 meter rise1.0 meter rise1.5 meter rise
Global + Regional0.45 + 0.27 = 0.72m
(2.3 ft)
1.4 + 0.27 = 1.67m(5.5. ft)
SLR: Northeast US Regional Changes SLR: Northeast US Regional Changes In the Northeast US In the Northeast US sea level is rising sea level is rising much faster than the much faster than the global average, most global average, most likely due to local land likely due to local land subsidence.subsidence.
Inferred subsidence Inferred subsidence rates are -0.6 to 2.7 rates are -0.6 to 2.7 mm yrmm yr-1-1..
Over the 21Over the 21stst Century, Century, this is an additional this is an additional sea-level rise of -6 to sea-level rise of -6 to 27 cm.27 cm.
Northeast US Sea level trends, 1950-1999(mm/yr)
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00
Eastport, ME
Bar Harbor, ME
Portland, ME
Boston, MA
Woods Hole, MA
Newport, RI
Providence, RI
New London, CT
Montauk, NY
Willets Point, NY
The Battery, NY
Sandy Hook, NJ
Atlantic City, NJ
Philadelphia, PA
Lewes, DE
Baltimore, MD
Annapolis, MD
Solomons Island, MD
Washington, DC
Gloucester Point, VA
Sewells Point, VA
Global average
Sources: Zervas (2001), Church et al. (2004)Source – Ray Najjar
Potential Impacts to Water Potential Impacts to Water Supply and InfrastructureSupply and Infrastructure
Prolonged Droughts – Storage?Prolonged Droughts – Storage? More ET - Increased Irrigation?More ET - Increased Irrigation? Stormwater system re-vamps? Stormwater system re-vamps? Sea Level Rise - Salinity Pushing InlandSea Level Rise - Salinity Pushing Inland Infrastructure placement - Water Lines, Infrastructure placement - Water Lines,
Sewer Lines, Wastewater Treatment Sewer Lines, Wastewater Treatment Loss Of Snow PackLoss Of Snow Pack
Water Intakes at Risk from Drought and Sea Level Rise:location of the salt line at high tide during drought
Power• Exelon Delaware
Generating Station• Exelon Richmond
Generating Station• Philadelphia Gas
Works Richmond
Industrial• Koch Material Co.• NGC Industries• Rohm and Haas
Philadelphia• MacAndrew and
Forbes Co.• Pennwalt
Corporation• Sunoco
Public Supply• Torresdale Water
Intake (provides • almost 60% of
Philadelphia’s water supply)
• New Jersey American Water Co. Tri-County Water Treatment Plant
Special Protection Special Protection Waters Waters
Antidegradation program in place to protect the existing high quality waters in the non-tidal River and headwaters…but
the most sensitive areas of the most sensitive areas of a watersheda watershed
Existing contiguous forest is Existing contiguous forest is critical to water quantity and critical to water quantity and qualityquality
Multiple stressors Multiple stressors Increasing development Increasing development
& impervious cover & impervious cover Road cuts, pipeline Road cuts, pipeline
connections,connections, Forest FragmentationForest Fragmentation
Philadelphia Source Water Philadelphia Source Water Protection Analysis Protection Analysis #1 threat:#1 threat: Change in Change in
Delaware River Delaware River HeadwatersHeadwaters
Vulnerability of Headwaters
15 M
illion
Peo
ple +
““Adaptation to climate Adaptation to climate change is now inevitable… change is now inevitable… The only question is will it The only question is will it be by plan or by chaos?”be by plan or by chaos?”
Roger Jones, CSIRO, Australia; Co-author of Roger Jones, CSIRO, Australia; Co-author of IPCCIPCC
Time to Plan & Take ActionTime to Plan & Take Action
Partnerships, multiple agencies and Partnerships, multiple agencies and stakeholdersstakeholders
Holistic Analysis – Holistic Analysis – Geography – basinwideGeography – basinwide Water quality, quantity, biological/habitat, Water quality, quantity, biological/habitat,
human needshuman needs Informed decision makers – risks and Informed decision makers – risks and
optionsoptions
Develop Informed OptionsDevelop Informed Options Sophisticated models & scenario testingSophisticated models & scenario testing
Test drought mitigation plans: drought and flood (of Test drought mitigation plans: drought and flood (of Record ?)Record ?)
Evaluate effects of reservoir ops on downstream floodingEvaluate effects of reservoir ops on downstream flooding
Evaluate effect of land use change on stream flowsEvaluate effect of land use change on stream flows
Analysis / Options based on Potential RiskAnalysis / Options based on Potential Risk What infrastructure is at risk? What infrastructure is at risk?
Relative costs/benefits/potential of adapting in place vs. Relative costs/benefits/potential of adapting in place vs. moving. moving.
Develop Informed OptionsDevelop Informed Options
Overlay Climate Change on other water resource Overlay Climate Change on other water resource stressorsstressors
Increasing demand – potable supply, power generation, Increasing demand – potable supply, power generation, irrigationirrigation
Land use change: increased impervious cover, loss of Land use change: increased impervious cover, loss of forests,etc.forests,etc.
Evaluate Adaptation OptionsEvaluate Adaptation Options Reduce Demand - Water Conservation - System EfficiencyReduce Demand - Water Conservation - System Efficiency Better Stormwater ManagementBetter Stormwater Management Need for Increased Upstream Storage (?)Need for Increased Upstream Storage (?) Flood Mitigation – move or protect?Flood Mitigation – move or protect?
Time for Action !Time for Action !
Thank you.Thank you.
New / Modified Storage & Infrastructure
Water storage / flood mitigation / Interconnections
Instream Flow Needs (ecological / salinity)
Flood Vulnerability
Drought Vulnerability
2030 Withdrawal Demand
Water Availability
GOAL: Determine basin-wide concerns, identify location and magnitude of deficits for vulnerable watersheds and river points
ASSESSMENT
STRATEGIES
Reduction of Demand by Conservation MeasuresConservation pricing, drip irrigation, residential irrigation alternatives,
water loss control, plumbing requirements, water reuse, education, etc.
Increasing Instream Flow / Mitigating Flood Loss Local solutions, LID, riverine buffers, protection of headwaters, stormwater infiltration, storage in old quarries/ mine rec., ASR
Extent of Marcellus Shale Formation within Extent of Marcellus Shale Formation within the Delaware River Basinthe Delaware River Basin
36% (4,937 mi2) of the Delaware Basin is underlain by the Marcellus Shale
Hydro-fracking Phase –(a week or two)
Injection pumps, supplies,and many frack tanks for fresh and flowback waters
Photos Courtesy NYC DEP
Other Stressors in the BasinOther Stressors in the Basin
Increasing impervious surfacesIncreasing impervious surfaces Changing demographics/ water demand – Changing demographics/ water demand –
Population size and locationPopulation size and location Threats to the HeadwatersThreats to the Headwaters
Quantity and QualityQuantity and Quality