OECD-INEA-FAO Workshop on Agriculture and Adaptation to Climate Change

Rome, 23-25 June 2010

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation:

Insights from ABARE research

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation:

Insights from ABARE research

Helal AhammadGeneral Manager

Climate Change & Environment, ABARE

ABARE Key ActivitiesABARE Key Activities

Forecasting/commodity market analysis

Research, briefing & consulting

Farm surveys

Rest of the PresentationRest of the Presentation

• Uncertainties– the ‘dominant’ feature of the CC impacts and adaptation

knowledge space

• ABARE research– some insights into CC impacts and adaptation assessment

• Role of government– selected Australian Government initiatives

Rest of the PresentationRest of the Presentation

• Uncertainties– the ‘dominant’ feature of the CC impacts and adaptation

knowledge space

• ABARE research– some insights into CC impacts and adaptation

• Role of government– selected Australian Government initiatives

Known (inconvenient) UncertaintiesKnown (inconvenient) Uncertainties• Climate science

– Radiative forcing– Regional projections– Dynamics: clouds, aerosols, ice, carbon cycle ...

• Climate impacts– Water resources ("big dry" - unlucky variability or new reality?)– Agriculture, ecosystems, urban systems, health ...

• GHG emissions– When and how will mitigation be undertaken?

• Thresholds, bifurcations– Race between growth in population, GDP and ecological outcomes

• Intrusions of chaos into determinism– GFC: what could possibly go wrong (climate, war, ICT collapse,

disease ... …)?

Raupach (2010)

CC Impacts on Australian Agriculture:How much do we really know?CC Impacts on Australian Agriculture:How much do we really know?

1ºC increase in temperature

• 250-310 litre (or 6%) p.a. decline in milk production/cow in Hunter Valley

• 4.2% decline in total factor productivity in wheat production in parts of NSW

• 7.3% decline in total factor productivity in wheat production in parts of WA

CC Impacts on Australian Agriculture(contd.)CC Impacts on Australian Agriculture(contd.)

1-2ºC increase in temperature• 15% decline in pasture productivity• 12% decline in liveweight gain in cattle

3-4ºC increase in temperature• 128% increase in tick related losses in net

cattle production weightBased on case studies & ‘mean’ temperature ΔWhat about impacts of climate variability?What about the role of adaptation to climate change?

Climate Change AdaptationClimate Change Adaptation

Severity of climate change

Ada

ptat

ion

actio

ns

Adaptivemanagement

Strategic/plannedadaptation

Transformationaladaptation

Adapted from Barlow (2010)

Degree of uncertainties tends to increase with the length of projection periodDegree of uncertainties tends to increase with the length of projection period

Adaptation Options in Agriculture -CroppingAdaptation Options in Agriculture -Cropping• alter crop varieties

– increased resistance to heat, frost, drought, pests and diseases

• alter fertiliser and water application times and amounts

• alter timing and location of cropping activities

• use zero tillage, retain crop residues, change planting patterns, reduce fallow times– enhance water efficiency– reduce soil erosion

• expand water harvesting technologies and conserve soil moisture

Adaptation Options in Agriculture -LivestockAdaptation Options in Agriculture -Livestock• alter forage and animal species or breeds

• adapt annual production cycle to better match feed production

• alter pasture rotations and modify grazing times

• provide supplementary feeding

• change or improve feed concentrates

• provide alternative housing infrastructure, eg increased shading

Rest of the PresentationRest of the Presentation

• Uncertainties– the ‘dominant’ feature of the CC impacts and adaptation

knowledge space

• ABARE research– some insights into CC impacts and adaptation

• Role of government– selected Australian Government initiatives

ABARE Study 1: Insights into the state of climate modellingABARE Study 1: Insights into the state of climate modelling

Modelling regional impacts of climate change

Uncertainties much greater for rainfall projections by 2030 (SRES A2)

● increase in average rainfall (Darlam125 model)

● decline in average rainfall (Hadcm3 model)

High rainfall scenario change in pasture growth at 2030High rainfall scenario change in pasture growth at 2030

Low rainfall scenariochange in pasture growth at 2030Low rainfall scenariochange in pasture growth at 2030

ABARE Study 2: Insights from regional impact assessment (SRES A1T)ABARE Study 2: Insights from regional impact assessment (SRES A1T)

• soil moisture: the key to climate change impacts– south west is particularly at risk– northern Australia is less affected

• cropping industries are likely to be more adversely affected than livestock industries

• GRP (welfare) impacts of climate change vary across regions

• broad-based regional economies likely to be less impacted by climate change

• Murray-Darling Basin productivity at risk– southern region to experience substantially reduced water inflow

Average change in total factor productivity at 2030, (relative to the reference case)Average change in total factor productivity at 2030, (relative to the reference case)

ABARE’s illustrative scenario analysis• assumed decline in agricultural productivity by

2050 (Cline 2007)– 17% in Australia– up to 25% in other key economies

• assumed decline in overall economic activity by 2050– 5% in developed countries, – 10% in developing countries

• assumed no planned adaptation and mitigation

ABARE Study 3: Insight from global impacts modellingABARE Study 3: Insight from global impacts modelling

Climate change – percentage change in total agricultural production, by economy relative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)

Climate change – percentage change in total agricultural production, by economy relative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)

-15

-10

-5

5Australia China

NewZealand ASEAN Canada USA Argentina Brazil EU25 India

%

20302050

Climate change – percentage change in wheat production, by economyrelative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)

Climate change – percentage change in wheat production, by economyrelative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)

-15

-10

-5

Australia China India USA Argentina World%

20302050

Climate change – percentage change in beef production, by economy relative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)

Climate change – percentage change in beef production, by economy relative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)

-20

-15

-10

-5

5Australia

NewZealand USA Argentina Brazil EU-25 World

%

20302050

Climate change – percentage change in dairy production, by economy relative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)

Climate change – percentage change in dairy production, by economy relative to the reference case (no planned adaptation or mitigation)

-20

-15

-10

-5

5

10Australia

NewZealand USA EU-25 World

%

20302050

impacts on Australian production,without mitigation or adaptation

(% change relative to the reference case)

impacts on Australian production,without mitigation or adaptation

(% change relative to the reference case)

-20

-15

-10

-5

wheat beef sheep meat dairy sugar%

20302050

climate change – percentage change in Australian agricultural exports relative to the reference case (no adaptation or mitigation)

climate change – percentage change in Australian agricultural exports relative to the reference case (no adaptation or mitigation)

-80

-60

-40

-20

wheat beef sheep meat dairy sugar%

20302050

• Impacts will vary across economies and sectors

• Understanding global interactions and impacts important, but only a few detailed studies so far

• Need uncertainty analysis, covering climate variability and extreme events

• Need adaptation options/capabilities assessment– Articulate the role of government and industry

ABARE Study 3: Insight from global impacts modelling (contd.)ABARE Study 3: Insight from global impacts modelling (contd.)

Rest of the PresentationRest of the Presentation

• Uncertainties– the ‘dominant’ feature of the CC impacts and adaptation

knowledge space

• ABARE research– some insights into CC impacts and adaptation

• Role of government– selected Australian Government initiatives

Adaptation to Climate Change NeedsAdaptation to Climate Change Needs

• Information transfer

• PPP in research, development & diffusion

• Maintaining critical services to facilitate productivity growth

• Appropriate institutional/market settings

Responding to Climate Change:The right policy settingsResponding to Climate Change:The right policy settings

• Continuing improvement to farm productivity– remove impediments to productivity growth

improve efficiency of farm-specific policiesimprove efficiency of water markets/usagesensure adequate provision of infrastructurecontinuing structural adjustment

Adapting to Climate Change Impacts:Australian Government’s InitiativesAdapting to Climate Change Impacts:Australian Government’s Initiatives• Establishment of CAWCR

– CSIRO and BoM– climate modelling

• CSIRO National Research Flagships [programs]– Climate Adaptation– Sustainable Agriculture

• NCCARF

• Australia’s Farming Future– Climate Change R&D program being administered by DAFF– Climate Change Adaptation

• ABARE– GIAM: A joint initiative with CSIRO– the new/merged bureau in DAFF