climate change impacts and adaptationjohn smithers steve solomon colin soskolne dave spittlehouse...

Climate ChangeImpacts and Adaptation

A Canadian Perspective



Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program

The overarching goal of the Government of Canadarsquos Climate Change Impacts and AdaptationProgram is to reduce Canadarsquos vulnerability to climate change The research program supportscost shared research to address gaps in our knowledge of Canadarsquos vulnerability to climatechange and to provide information for adaptation decision-making

The program also supports the Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network(C-CIARN) This network facilitates linkages between stakeholders and researchers promotesnew research techniques and methodologies disseminates information and provides a voicefor an emerging impacts and adaptation research community

Additional copies of this report can be obtained from Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Directorate Natural Resources Canada 601 Booth StreetOttawa OntarioK1A 0E8

adaptationnrcangcca

copy Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2004

ISBN 0-662-33123-0Cat No M174-22004E

This publication is also available athttpadaptationnrcangccaperspective_easp

Ce document est eacutegalement offert en franccedilais sous le titre Impacts et adaptation lieacutes auxchangements climatiques perspective canadienne



Edited by Donald S Lemmen and Fiona J WarrenClimate Change Impacts and Adaptation Directorate Natural Resources CanadaOttawa Ontario

Principal Writer Fiona J Warren Natural Resources Canada

Other Contributing writers Elaine Barrow University of Regina (Chapter 2 Directions)

Ryan Schwartz Natural Resources Canada (Chapter 7 Coastal Zone)

Jean Andrey University of Waterloo (Chapter 8 Transportation)

Brian Mills Environment Canada (Chapter 8 Transportation)

Dieter Riedel Health Canada (Chapter 9 Human Health and Well-Being)

Acknowledgements

The Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Directorate Natural Resources Canada gratefully acknowledges the contributions of the following people in reviewing chapters and providing comments

Brian Abrahamson Paul Allen John Anderson Martha Anderson Shelley Arnott Doug Bancroft Sarah Baxter Gilles Belanger Lianne Bellisario Karen Bergman Martin Bergmann Andreacutee Blais-Stevens Andy Bootsma Robin Brown Jim Bruce Celina Campbell Con Campbell Martin Castonguay Norm Catto Allyn Clarke Jean Claude Therriault Stewart Cohen William Crawford Rob Cross Denis DrsquoAmours Mike Demuth Ray Desjardins Ken Drinkwater Patti Edwards Rich Fleming

Don Forbes Mike Foreman Ken Frank Christopher Furgal Denis Gilbert Pierre Gosselin Steve Grasby Glen Harrison Bill Harron Ted Hogg Rick Hurdle Mark Johannes Mark Johnson Pam Kertland Justine Klaver Ibrahim Konuk Tanuja Kulkarni Steven LeClair Denis LeFaivre Georgina Lloyd Don MacIver Dave Mackas Kyle Mackenzie Martha McCulloch Joan McDougall Greg McKinnon Bill Meades Bano Medhi Vanessa Milley Lorrie Minshall

Ken Minns Carlos Monreal Jonathan Morris Linda Mortsch Barb OrsquoConnell Fred Page Kathryn Parlee Andrew Piggott Terry Prowse Dieter Riedel Daniel Scott John Shaw Barry Smit Peter Smith John Smithers Steve Solomon Colin Soskolne Dave Spittlehouse Bob Stewart John Stone David Swann Bob Taylor Harvey Thorleifson Peggy Tsang Herb Vandermeulen Michel Vermette Anita Walker Ellen Wall David Welch Elaine Wheaton

Table of Contents

Summary v

Introduction 1

Research Directions 13

Water Resources 33

Agriculture 51

Forestry 71

Fisheries 93

Coastal Zone 113

Transportation 131

Human Health and Well-Being 151

Conclusion 171

The contents of this CD do not represent the complete report For updates and to order copies of the final report please visit our web sitehttpadaptationnrcangccaperspective_easp

Summary

Introduction

There is strong consensus in the international scientific community that climate change is occurring and that the impacts are already beingfelt in some regions It is also widely accepted that even after introducing significant measures toreduce greenhouse gas emissions some additionaldegree of climate change is inevitable and wouldhave economic social and environmental impactson Canada and Canadian communities Althoughimpacts would vary on a regional basis all areas of the country and virtually every economic sectorwould be affected

To reduce the negative impacts of climate change and take advantage of new opportunitiesCanadians will adapt Adaptation is not an alterna-tive to reducing greenhouse gas emissions inaddressing climate change but rather a necessarycomplement Reducing greenhouse gas emissionsdecreases both the rate and overall magnitude ofclimate change which increases the likelihood ofsuccessful adaptation and decreases associatedcosts Adaptation is not a new concept Canadianshave already developed a range of approaches that

have allowed us to deal effectively with our extremelyvariable climate Nevertheless the nature of futureclimate change as well as its rate would posesome new challenges

Developing an effective strategy for adaptationrequires an understanding of our vulnerability to climate change Vulnerability is determined by three factors the nature of climate change the climatic sensitivity of the system or region beingconsidered and our capacity to adapt to the resulting changes The tremendous geographic ecological and economic diversity of Canada means that these factors and hence vulnerabilitiesvary significantly across the country In many cases adaptation will involve enhancing the resiliency and adaptive capacity of a system toincrease its ability to deal with stress

The report Climate Change Impacts and AdaptationA Canadian Perspective provides an overview ofresearch in the field of climate change impacts and adaptation over the past five years as it relates to Canada This summary presents commonthemes of the report as well as highlights fromindividual chapters

S U M M A R Y vi iPhoto courtesy of Natural Resources Canada

vi i i Climate Change Impacts and Adaptat ion

Projected Climate Change

Climate scenarios as summarized by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)project that mean global temperatures are likely toincrease by 14ndash58degC over the present century Asa high-latitude country warming in Canada wouldlikely be more pronounced (Figure 1) Temperatureincreases would vary across the country with cer-tain regions including the North and the southernand central Prairies warming more than othersWarming is also projected to vary on a seasonalbasis being greatest in winter and on a daily basis with nights warming more than daysChanges in precipitation patterns changes in climate variability and shifts in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events wouldaccompany warming Since these changes wouldnot be felt uniformly across the country impactswould vary regionally

There is growing evidence that climate change is already occurring At the global scale average surface temperatures rose about 06degC over the

20th century Warming of minimum and maximumtemperatures has also been detected in CanadaCorrespondingly there have been decreases in sea-ice cover shifts in species distributions and an increase in global average sea level The IPCChas also concluded that there have very likely been increases in annual precipitation heavy pre-cipitation events cloud cover and extreme hightemperatures over at least the last 50 years

Vulnerability of Canadian Sectors

Projected changes in climate are expected to bring a range of challenges and benefits to CanadaOur economic and social well-being are greatlyinfluenced by the health and sustainability of our natural resources including water forestryfisheries and agriculture and the reliability of our transportation and health care systems

FIGURE 1 Annual temperature projection for 2080s based on Canadian Global Coupled Model 2-A21

Courtesy of Canadian Institute of Climate Studies

To date the majority of impacts and adaptationresearch has focused on the biophysical impacts ofclimate change Much of this research suggests thatthe most significant challenges would result fromincreases in the frequency and intensity of extremeclimate events such as floods droughts andstorms Extreme events as well as rapid climatechange can cause critical thresholds to be exceed-ed often with severe or catastrophic consequencesIn contrast given appropriate adjustments manysystems should be able to cope with and at timeseven benefit from gradual temperature warming oflimited magnitude For example in some regionshigher temperatures could enhance plant growthrates decrease road maintenance costs and reducedeaths from extreme cold

A recurring issue in the field of climate changeimpacts and adaptation is uncertainty There isuncertainty in climate change projections (degreeand rate of change in temperature precipitationand other climate factors) imperfect understandingof how systems would respond uncertainty concerning how people would adapt and difficul-ties involved in predicting future changes in supply and demand Given the complexity of these systems uncertainty is unavoidable and is especially pronounced at the local and regionallevels where many adaptation decisions tend to be made Nonetheless there are ways to deal with uncertainty in a risk management context and most experts agree that present uncertaintiesdo not preclude our ability to initiate adaptation

In all sectors adaptation has the potential toreduce the magnitude of negative impacts and take advantage of possible benefits Researchersrecommend focusing on actions that enhance ourcapacity to adapt and improve our understandingof key vulnerabilities These strategies work bestwhen climate change is integrated into larger decision-making frameworks

The following sections examine potential impacts ofclimate change and adaptation options for key sectorsin Canada as reflected in scientific papers andreports published since 1997 It must be emphasizedthat these sectors are both interrelated and interde-pendent in that adaptation decisions undertakenwithin one sector could have significant implicationsfor other sectors It is therefore important to coordi-nate adaptation activities between sectors

Water Resources

Water resources is one of the highest-priority issues with respect to climate change impacts and adaptation in Canada A clean and reliablewater supply is critical for domestic use food andenergy production transportation recreation andmaintenance of natural ecosystems AlthoughCanada possesses a relative abundance of water on a per capita basis the uneven distribution ofwater resources and year-to-year variability meanthat most regions of the country have experiencedwater-related problems such as droughts floodsand associated water quality issues

Such problems are expected to become more common as a result of climate change The hydro-logical cycle is greatly influenced by temperature

S U M M A R Y i x

Photo courtesy of Natural Resources Canada

x Climate Change Impacts and Adaptat ion

and precipitation and even small changes in theseparameters can affect water supply through shifts in runoff evaporation and water storage (eg inglaciers lakes and soil) There are still uncertaintieshowever regarding the magnitude and in somecases the direction of future changes in part dueto the limitations of climate models Althoughimpacts would vary on a regional basis it is appar-ent that certain aspects including extreme eventsreduced ice cover and shifts in flow regimes areconcerns in many areas of the country Overall themost vulnerable regions would be those alreadyunder water stress such as parts of the Prairies andthe Okanagan Valley where demand is alreadyapproaching or exceeding supply

In many regions decreases in flow volumes andwater levels are expected to create or increasewater supply problems during the summer monthsIn Prairie rivers for example summer flows areexpected to decrease due to reduced water supply

from snowmelt and glacier runoff In fact dataindicate that a long-term trend of declining flowshas already begun Accompanying decreases inshallow groundwater resources could further compound water shortages Water supply issues are also expected to become a greater concern inthe Great Lakes basin where a range of sectorswould be affected by declining water levels (Figure 2) In the winter however less ice covermore rain-on-snow precipitation events and morefrequent winter thaws would increase the risk offlooding in many regions of the country

Changes in flow patterns and water levels couldalso result in decreased water quality Lower waterlevels and higher temperatures could increase lev-els of bacterial nutrient and metal contaminationwhile an increase in flooding could increase theflushing of urban and agricultural waste into sourcewater systems This would cause taste and odourproblems and increase the risk of water-borne

FIGURE 2 Water resources is a crosscutting issue

Decreased depthof navigation

channelsstranded docksand harbours

More beachesaesthetic issues

less access to marinas and

lake front

Loss of species loss of habitat

(eg spawningareas)

contamination

Less potentialfor hydropower

less water for industrialoperations

Increased water qualityproblems and

water-userestrictions

Less water available for

irrigation and farm

operations

Increased illness from

water contamination

and poorer water quality

SAMPLE ISSUE

SECTORS IMPACTED

Lower water levels in the Great LakesndashSt Lawrence

Transportation Tourism andRecreation

Fisheries Municipalities Agriculture HealthIndustry andEnergy

OVERALL RESULT

POTENTIAL IMPACTS (examples)

Supply-demand mismatches and issues of apportionment betweenbull the different sectorsbull different levels of government bull jurisdictions (eg provinces CanadaUS)bull economic uses and ecosystem needs

S U M M A R Y x i

health effects in communities across the countryWater supplies recreational activities and naturalecosystems would all be affected Some regionalwater quality concerns include saltwater intrusion incoastal areas and the rupture of water infrastructurein the North as a result of permafrost degradation

As water supplies diminish at least seasonally andwater quality problems increase there would be lesshigh-quality water available for human use At thesame time agricultural domestic and industrialdemands (eg irrigation lawn watering and equip-ment cooling respectively) would likely increase inparts of the country that become warmer and drierAs a result supply-demand mismatches are expectedto become more common and technological behav-ioural and management changes would be requiredto deal with potential conflicts

Many of the commonly recommended adaptationoptions to address climate change in the waterresources sector including water conservation and preparedness for extreme events are based onstrategies for dealing with current climate variabilityStructural adaptations such as dams weirs anddrainage canals tend to increase the flexibility ofmanagement operations although they also incureconomic social and environmental costs For thisreason upgrading existing infrastructure to betterdeal with future climates may often be preferable tobuilding new structures Design decisions shouldfocus primarily on extreme events and system thresh-olds rather than on changes in mean conditions

Demand management is an important institutionaland social adaptation which involves reducingconsumer demands for water through mechanismssuch as water conservation initiatives and water-costing mechanisms Community water conservation programs can be very effective atreducing water consumption while economicspricing and marketing can help balance water supply and demand

Climate change should be incorporated into currentwater management planning Although widespreadinclusion of climate change in water managementhas yet to be realized there are regions such asthe Grand River basin in southwestern Ontariothat do consider future climate in their planningactivities To best deal with the uncertaintiesregarding climatic and hydrological change man-agers should consider climate change in the contextof risk management and vulnerability assessment

Agriculture

Agriculture is both extremely important to theCanadian economy and inherently sensitive to climate As such the impacts of climate change on agriculture have been addressed in many stud-ies Much of this research focuses on the impactsof warmer temperatures and shifting moisture availability on agricultural crops while a lesser

Photo courtesy of Stewart Cohen

x i i Climate Change Impacts and Adaptat ion

amount addresses the impacts of greater concentra-tions of carbon dioxide (CO2) changes in extremeevents and increased pest outbreaks Some studieshave also examined the impacts of climate change onlivestock operations dairy farms and fruit orchards

Climate change is expected to bring both advantagesand disadvantages for agricultural crops in Canada(Figure 3) For example although warmer tempera-tures would increase the length of the growingseason they could also increase crop damage due to heat stress and water and pest problems Impactswould vary regionally and with the type of cropbeing cultivated Studies have suggested that yieldsof certain crops (eg grain corn in the Maritimesand canola in Alberta) may increase while others(eg wheat and soybeans in Quebec) could decline

Changes in the frequency and intensity of extremeevents (eg droughts floods and storms) havebeen identified as the greatest challenge that wouldface the agricultural industry as a result of climatechange Extreme events difficult to both predictand prepare for can devastate agricultural opera-tions as has been demonstrated several times inthe past For example the drought of 2001 seriouslyaffected farm operations across the country caus-ing significant reductions in crop yields andincreased outbreaks of insects and disease Droughtand extreme heat have also been shown to affectlivestock operations Changes in extreme eventstend not to be considered in many of the impactassessments completed to date

FIGURE 3 Potential impacts of climate change on agricultural crops in Canada

POSITIVE IMPACTS NEGATIVE IMPACTS

The net impact on Canadian crops isuncertain and depends largely on the

adaptation measures undertaken

Increased productivity from warmer temperatures

Increased insect infestations

Possibility of growing new crops

Crop damage from extreme heat

Planning problems due toless reliable forecasts

Increased weed growth anddisease outbreaks

Decreased herbicide andpesticide efficacy

Increased moisture stressand droughts

Accelerated maturation rates

Increased productivity fromenhanced CO2

Longer growing seasons

Increased soil erosion

Decreased moisture stress

PROJECTED CHANGESbull Warmer temperaturesbull Drier or wetter conditionsbull Increased frequency of extreme

climatic eventsbull Enhanced atmospheric CO2bull Changing market conditions

S U M M A R Y x i i i

Recent literature also indicates that the timing ofwarming will be important to agriculture Modelprojections and observed trends suggest that warming would be greatest during the wintermonths and that night-time minimums wouldincrease more rapidly than daytime maximumsAlthough warmer winters would reduce cold stress they would also increase the risk of damaging winter thaws and potentially reduce the amount of protective snow cover Climatewarming is also expected to increase the frequencyof extremely hot days which have been shown todirectly damage agricultural crops

Future changes in moisture availability represent a key concern in the agricultural sector Climatechange is generally expected to decrease the supplyof water during the growing season while concur-rently increasing the demand In addition to thedirect problems caused by water shortages thebenefits of potentially positive changes includingwarmer temperatures and a longer growing seasonwould be limited if adequate water were not avail-able Water shortages are expected to be a problemin several regions of Canada in the future

Much of the adaptation research in the agriculturalsector has focused on strategies for dealing withfuture water shortages Such adaptations as waterconservation measures and adjustment of plantingand harvesting dates could play a critical role inreducing the losses associated with future moisturelimitations Other adaptation options being studiedinclude the introduction of new species andhybrids for example those that are more resistantto drought and heat and the development of policies and practices to increase the flexibility ofagricultural systems Better definitions of criticalclimate thresholds for agriculture will also be beneficial for adaptation planning

Researchers classify adaptation strategies for agriculture into four main categories 1) technological developments 2) government programs and insurance 3) farm production practices and 4) farm financial management

Adaptation will take place at all levels from producers through government and industry to consumers To be most effective adaptation willrequire strong communication and cooperationbetween these different groups as well as a clear designation of responsibility for action

Forestry

Forests cover almost half of Canadarsquos landmass andare a key feature of our countryrsquos society cultureand economy Climate change has the potential togreatly influence our countryrsquos forests since evensmall changes in temperature and precipitation cansignificantly affect forest growth and survival Forexample a 1degC increase in temperature over the lastcentury in Canada has been associated with longergrowing seasons increased plant growth shifts intree phenology and distribution and changes inplant hardiness zones Future climate change isexpected to affect species distribution forest produc-tivity and disturbance regimes Understanding theforestry sectorrsquos vulnerability to these changes isessential for forest management planning

The impacts of climate change on forests wouldvary regionally and would be influenced by several factors including species composition siteconditions and local microclimate For exampletree species differ significantly in their ability toadapt to warming their response to elevated CO2

concentrations and their tolerance to disturbancesThe age-class structure of forests is another impor-tant control on how forests respond to changes in climate In general forest growth would beenhanced by longer growing seasons warmer temperatures and elevated CO2 concentrationsThese benefits however could be offset by associated increases in moisture stress ecosystem


instability resulting from species migrations andincreases in the frequency and intensity of suchdisturbances as forest fires insect outbreaks andextreme weather events Overall these factors lead to significant uncertainty regarding futurechange and make it difficult to project impacts on a regional scale

Tree species are expected to respond to warmertemperatures by migrating northward and to higheraltitudes as they have done numerous times in the past In fact recent warming appears to havealready caused the treeline to shift upslope in the central Canadian Rockies There are howeverconcerns that species would be unable to keep up with the rapid rate of future change and thatbarriers to dispersion such as habitat fragmenta-tion and soil limitations would impede migrationin some regions The impacts of changing moistureconditions and disturbance regimes may also limitspecies migration

The impacts of changes in disturbance regimeshave the potential to overwhelm other more grad-ual changes Disturbances therefore represent a keyconcern for the forestry sector Studies generallyagree that both fire frequency in the boreal forestand total area burned have increased over the last20 to 40 years Although future projections arecomplicated by uncertainties regarding changes

in such factors as precipitation patterns wind and storms severity of fire seasons is generallyexpected to worsen and the risk of forest fires toincrease across most of the country

Warmer temperatures are also expected to expandthe ranges shorten the outbreak cycles andenhance the survival rates of forest pests such asthe spruce budworm and the mountain pine beetleInsects have short life cycles high mobility andhigh reproductive potentials all of which allowthem to quickly exploit new conditions and takeadvantage of new opportunities In addition disturbances may interact in a cumulative mannerwhereby increases in one type of disturbanceincrease the potential for other types of distur-bances For example in the boreal forest of westernCanada an increase in spruce budworm outbreakscould encourage wildfires by increasing the volumeof dead tree matter which acts as fuel for fires

Adaptation will play a key role in helping theforestry industry to minimize losses and maximizebenefits from climate change Planned adaptationwhereby future changes are anticipated andforestry practices adjusted accordingly will beespecially important because rotation periods forforests tend to be long and species selected forplanting today must be able to withstand andthrive in future climates One example of planned

FIGURE 4 Size of three simulated fires on current (left) and hypothetical lsquofire-smartrsquo landscape (right) after a 22-hour fire run Note the reduction in area burned using the fire-smart management approach

Courtesy of Natural Resources Canada

x iv Climate Change Impacts and Adaptat ion

S U M M A R Y xv

adaptation is the use of lsquofire-smartrsquo landscapesFire-smart landscapes which use such forest man-agement activities as harvesting regeneration andstand tending to reduce the intensity and spread ofwildfire could substantially reduce the size offuture forest fires (Figure 4)

Key recommendations for facilitating adaptationinclude improving communication betweenresearchers and the forest management communityincreasing the resiliency of the resource base bymaintaining forest health and biodiversity andminimizing non-climatic stresses on forests

Fisheries

Canadian fisheries which encompass the AtlanticPacific and Arctic Oceans as well as the worldrsquoslargest freshwater system are both economically andculturally important to Canada Within each regioncommercial recreational and subsistence fisheriesplay a significant though varying role Shellfish are currently the most valuable commercial catchsalmon is a vital component of subsistence andrecreational fisheries and aquaculture is one of the fastest-growing food production activities in the country Considerable shifts have been observedin marine ecosystems over recent decades andmuch of the recent research has been dedicated to assessing the role of climate in these changes

Climate change is expected to have significantimpacts on fish populations and sustainable har-vests Fish have a distinct set of environmentalconditions under which they experience optimalgrowth reproduction and survival As conditionschange in response to a changing climate fishwould be impacted both directly and indirectlyImpacts would stem primarily from changes in water temperature water levels ice coverextreme events diseases and shifts in predator-prey dynamics The key concerns for fisheries vary in different regions of the country

Along the Pacific coast drastic declines in thesalmon catch during the 1980s and 1990s as well as the importance of salmon to west coast fisherieshave resulted in research being focused primarily onsalmon Temperature changes affect salmon directly

through impacts on growth survival and reproduc-tion as well as indirectly through effects onpredator-prey dynamics and habitat Changes in riverflows and extreme climate events have also beenshown to affect salmon survival and production

Marine ecosystems along the Atlantic coast alsoexperienced significant changes in the 1990s withshellfish replacing groundfish as the most valuablecatch Although this shift was driven primarily byfishing practices climatic changes likely played arole Future warming trends may impact the shell-fish populations on which the region now reliesFor example water temperature has been shown tohave a strong influence on snow crab reproductionand distribution There is also concern that the frequency and intensity of toxic algal bloomswhich can cause shellfish poisoning may increaseOther important issues for the Atlantic regioninclude the effects of climate change on salmonand aquaculture operations

The most significant impacts of future climatechange on Arctic marine ecosystems are expectedto result from changes in sea-ice cover A decreasein sea-ice cover would affect marine productivityfish distribution and fishing practices (eg accessi-bility to sites safety) as well as marine mammalsIn fact there is growing evidence that climatechange has already begun to affect fisheries andmarine mammals along the Arctic coast For exam-ple declines in polar bear condition and births in

Photo courtesy of Atlantic Salmon Federation and G van Ryckevorset

xvi Climate Change Impacts and Adaptat ion

the western Hudson Bay region have been associatedwith warmer temperatures and earlier ice break-upwhile capture of types of salmon outside of knownspecies ranges may be early evidence that distribu-tions are shifting The opening of the NorthwestPassage to international shipping would also affect Arctic fisheries through the increase in traffic pollution and noise in the region

Key climate change impacts for freshwater fisheriesare expected to result from higher water tempera-tures lower water levels shifts in seasonal icecover and the invasion of new and exotic speciesOverall some fish (eg warm-water species)would likely benefit while others (eg cold-waterspecies) would suffer For example higher watertemperatures have been shown to decrease thegrowth rate and survival of rainbow trout yetincrease the population sizes of lake sturgeonNorthward migration of fish species and localextinctions are expected and would lead tochanges in sustainable harvests (Figure 5) Highertemperatures and lower water levels would alsoexacerbate water quality problems which wouldincrease fish contamination and impair fish health

There is growing awareness of the need to antici-pate and prepare for climate change in the fisheriessector One challenge for the fishing industry wouldbe to adjust policies and practices in an appropriateand timely manner to deal with shifts in fish distri-bution and relative abundance Recommendationsfor adaptation include monitoring for changesenhancing the adaptive capacity of fish species by reducing non-climatic stresses and maintaininggenetic diversity and improving research and communication Careful consideration of the role of regulatory regimes and programs in facilitatingor constraining adaptation is also important

Coastal Zone

The coastal zone forms a dynamic interface of land and water of high ecological diversity and critical economic importance Natural features inthe coastal zone support a diverse range of speciesand are key areas for fisheries and recreation while coastal infrastructure is essential for tradetransportation and tourism Canadarsquos coastlinewhich is the longest in the world extends alongthe Atlantic Pacific and Arctic Oceans as well asalong the shores of large freshwater bodies such as the Great Lakes

Climate change would impact the coastal zone primarily through changes in water levels Sea level rise resulting from thermal expansion ofocean waters and increased melting of glaciers and ice caps is the main issue for marine regionsConversely declining water levels resulting fromchanges in precipitation and evaporation are projected for the Great Lakes Other impacts on the coastal zone would result from changes inwave patterns storm surges and the duration and thickness of seasonal ice cover

Global sea level is projected to rise by 8 to 88 centimetres between 1990 and 2100 with sealevel rise continuing and perhaps accelerating in the following century From an impacts andadaptation perspective however it is relative sea level rise that is important Changes in relative sea level would vary regionally and depend largely on geological processes Overallmore than 7000 kilometres of Canadarsquos coastline

FIGURE 5 Relative changes in maximum sustainedyield of walleye in Ontario under a 2xCO2climate change scenario Note the gen-eral decrease in maximum sustainedyield in the southern part of theprovince and the increase in the central and northern regions

Courtesy of Fisheries and Oceans Canada

S U M M A R Y xvi i

are considered highly sensitive to future sea levelrise In these sensitive regions sea level rise andclimate change are expected to lead to a suite ofbiophysical and socio-economic impacts (Figure 6)

Many regions along the Atlantic coast are identifiedas highly sensitive to sea level rise These includethe north shore of Prince Edward Island the Gulfcoast of New Brunswick much of the Atlanticcoast of Nova Scotia and parts of Charlottetownand Saint John Key issues for these areas includeincreases in storm surge flooding permanent submerging of parts of the coast accelerated erosion of beaches and coastal dunes degradationof coastal wetlands such as salt marshes and saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers A casestudy conducted in Prince Edward Island suggeststhat more intense storm surges resulting from sealevel rise and climate change would have signifi-cant economic impacts on urban infrastructure andproperties in Charlottetown

Although the Pacific region has a generally lowsensitivity to sea level rise there are small butimportant areas including parts of the QueenCharlotte Islands the Fraser Delta and portions of Victoria and Vancouver that are consideredhighly sensitive Main issues include the breechingof dykes flooding and coastal erosion The FraserDelta which supports a large and rapidly growingpopulation is protected by an extensive dyke system and parts of the delta are already belowsea level Further sea level rise in this region would impact natural ecosystems farmland andindustrial and residential areas in the region unless accompanied by appropriate adaptations

Changes in sea-ice cover will likely be the most significant direct impact of climate change on theArctic coastline A decrease in sea-ice cover wouldincrease the extent and duration of the open waterseason thereby affecting travel personal safety andaccessibility to communities and hunting groundsThis has important implications for traditional ways

FIGURE 6 Potential biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change in the coastal zone

Climate changeand

sea level rise

BIOPHYSICAL IMPACTSbull More extensive coastal inundationbull Increased coastal erosionbull Saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifersbull Reduced sea-ice coverbull Higher storm-surge floodingbull Higher sea surface temperaturesbull Loss of coastal habitat

SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTSbull Damage to coastal infrastructure including

that used for transportation and recreationbull Increased length of shipping seasonbull Increased property lossbull Increased risk of diseasebull Increased flood risks and potential loss of lifebull Changes in renewable and subsistence resources

(eg fisheries)bull Loss of cultural resources and values

xvi i i Climate Change Impacts and Adaptat ion

of life An increase in open water would alsoincrease the sensitivity of the coastline to sea levelrise Although most of the Arctic coastline is notconsidered to be sensitive to sea level rise parts ofBeaufort Sea coast including the outer MackenzieDelta and Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula are an exceptionIn this region sea level rise combined withdecreased ice cover and permafrost degradationwould amplify the ongoing destructive processes in the coastal zone and create problems for coastalcommunities and infrastructure

The major impact of climate change in the GreatLakes basin would be a long-term decline in waterlevels Lower water levels would restrict access atdocks and marinas decrease the cargo capacity ofships impact beaches and other recreational sitesand cause water supply taste and odour problems

for coastal communities Conversely lower waterlevels may benefit coastal areas by decreasing the frequency and severity of flooding and coastalerosion However erosion may increase in the winter if ice cover which offers seasonal protec-tion is reduced

In many cases adaptation to climate change willderive from existing strategies used to deal with past changes in water level namely protect accommodate and retreat (see Table 1) Adaptationplans would generally involve a combination ofthese strategies Some specific adaptation strategiesrecommended for sensitive regions of Canadainclude dune rehabilitation in Prince Edward Islandextending and upgrading the dyke system in theFraser Delta and adjusting shoreline managementplans and polices in the Great Lakes region


TABLE 1 Adaptation strategies for the coastal zone

Response option Meaning Example

Protect Attempt to prevent the sea from impacting the land Build seawalls beach nourishment

Accommodate Adjust human activities andor infrastructure to Elevate buildings on piles shift agriculture accommodate sea level changes production to drought- or salt-tolerant crops

Retreat Do not attempt to protect the land from the sea Abandon land when conditions become intolerable

S U M M A R Y x ix

Transportation

Transportation is an essential element of Canadianeconomic and social well-being The main compo-nents of our transportation system are roads railair and water all of which play important thoughvarying roles across the country Assessing the vulnerability of these components to climatechange is a key step toward ensuring a safe andefficient transportation system in the future

Climate change is expected to impact transportationprimarily through changes in temperature precipi-tation extreme events and water levels (Figure 7)The most vulnerable transportation systems include ice roads Great Lakes shipping coastalinfrastructure and infrastructure situated on permafrost Impacts would vary regionally withboth challenges and new opportunities expected In some cases benefits would have the potential to outweigh future damages and a warmer climate may translate into savings for those who build maintain and use Canadarsquos transportation infrastructure

In southern regions of the country an increase insummer temperature would affect the structuralintegrity of pavement and railway tracks throughincreased pavement deterioration and railway

buckling It is expected however that lossesincurred in southern Canada during the summerwould be outweighed by benefits projected for the winter Damage to pavement from freeze-thawevents would likely decrease in much of southernCanada and the costs and accidents associatedwith winter storms are expected to decline

Changes in precipitation patterns could also affecttransportation infrastructure Future increases inthe intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall eventswould have implications for the design of roadshighways bridges and culverts with respect tostormwater management especially in urban areaswhere roads make up a large proportion of the landsurface Accelerated deterioration of transportationinfrastructure such as bridges and parking garagesmay occur where precipitation events become morefrequent particularly in areas that experience acidrain An increase in debris flows avalanches andfloods due to changes in the frequency and intensi-ty of precipitation events could also affecttransportation systems

Although there would be some advantages associatedwith higher temperatures associated with higher tem-peratures (eg fewer periods of extreme cold wouldbenefit railways) there would also be several newchallenges Permafrost degradation and its effects onthe structural integrity of roads rails and runways is

Photo courtesy of Diavik Diamond Mines Inc

xx Climate Change Impacts and Adaptat ion

FIGURE 7 Potential impacts of climate change on transportation in Canada

Conf

iden

ce L

evel

a

NATIONAL IMPACTS

bull Changes in fuel efficiencies and payloadsb

bull Changes in length and quality of construction seasonb

bull Impacts on health and safety (eg accidents access to services)b

bull Changes in transportation demand and competitionb

NORTHERN CANADA

bull Increased Arctic shipping (Northwest Passage)bull Infrastructure damage from permafrost degradation

and increase in freeze-thaw cyclesbull Changes to maintenance and design practicesb

SOUTHERN CANADA

bull Inundation and flooding of coastal infrastructure (Atlantic and Pacific)bull Increased costs of shipping in Great LakesndashSt Lawrence Seaway systembull Increased landslideavalanche activity (reduced mobility increased maintenance costs)bull Increased flooding of inland infrastructurebull Changes in winter maintenance costs for surface and air transportb

bull Decreased damage from fewer freeze-thaw cyclesb

bull Changes to maintenance and design practicesb

Increase in mean temperature Sea level rise

Change in temperature extremes (increase in summer decrease in winter) Changes in mean precipitation

Increase in storm frequency and severityIncrease in precipitation intensity Lo

wM

oder

ate

High

EXPECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATIC VARIABLES

POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS

a Refers to agreement among global climate models as per IPCC (reference 15)

b Refers to potential impacts with limited or no completed climate change studies on the topic

a key concern The social and economic implicationsof a shortened ice-road season are also important to consider Recent warm winters have resulted inthe governments of Alberta and Manitoba having to spend millions of dollars flying supplies into communities normally served by ice roads

In coastal regions changes in water levels wouldaffect transportation infrastructure and shipping efficiencies Rising sea level on the coasts wouldincrease flooding and storm surges with potentialconsequences for causeways bridges marine facilities and municipal infrastructure In the Great LakesndashSt Lawrence Seaway lower water levels would decrease the efficiency of shippingoperations by reducing cargo volumes Shippingopportunities in northern Canada may increase due to less ice coverage and the potential opening of the Northwest Passage This would present bothnew opportunities and challenges for the North creating new possibilities for economic developmentbut also raising safety and environmental concerns

The impacts of climate change on transportationover the next century in Canada are expected to be largely manageable Key adaptation initiativesinclude incorporating climate change into infra-structure design and maintenance improvinginformation systems and increasing the resiliencyand sustainability of transportation systems Forexample in northern Canada future changes inpermafrost should be considered in the selection of routes for roads and pipelines

Human Health and Well-Being

Health and health services are extremely importantto Canadians Physical mental and social well-being are key indicators of quality of life and more than $100 billion is spent each year on health services Although health is influenced by a range of social and economic factors ourcountryrsquos variable climatic conditions also play a role Seasonal trends are apparent in illness and death while extreme climate events andweather disasters have both acute and chronichealth effects

The impacts of future climate change on health and the healthcare sector in Canada would be both direct (eg changes in temperature-relatedmorbidity and mortality) and indirect (eg shifts in vector-borne diseases) There would be somebenefits for human health as well as many challenges (see Table 2) It is expected that climate change would make it more difficult tomaintain our health and well-being in the futureThe impacts on the more vulnerable groups of thepopulation including the elderly the young theinfirm and the poor are of particular concern

Higher temperatures are expected to increase theoccurrence of heat-related illnesses such as heatexhaustion and heat stroke and exacerbate existingconditions related to circulatory- respiratory- andnervous-system problems An increase in heatwaves particularly in urban areas could cause significant increases in the number of deaths


S U M M A R Y xx i

xx i i Climate Change Impacts and Adaptat ion

Higher overnight temperatures during heat wavesare also a concern for human health as cooler temperatures at night offer much-needed relief from the heat of the day With respect to beneficialimpacts a decrease in extreme cold events duringthe winter would decrease cold-weather mortalityespecially among the homeless

Respiratory disorders such as asthma would be affected by changes in average and peak air pollution levels Higher temperatures could lead to an increase in background ground-level ozoneconcentrations and increase the occurrence ofsmog episodes Air pollution would also be affected

by an increase in airborne particulates resultingfrom more frequent and intense forest firesAirborne particulates have been shown to causenasal throat respiratory and eye problems

Another concern is the potential impact of higher temperatures and heavier rainfall events onwaterborne diseases Heavy rainfall and associatedflooding can flush bacteria sewage fertilizers andother organic wastes into waterways and aquifersA significant number of waterborne disease out-breaks across North America including the E colioutbreak in Walkerton Ontario in 2000 were preceded by extreme precipitation events Higher

TABLE 2 Potential health impacts from climate change and variability

Health concerns Examples of health vulnerabilities

Temperature-related morbidity and mortality

Health effects of extreme weather events

Health problems related to air pollution

Health effects of water- and food-borne contamination

Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases

Health effects of exposure to ultraviolet rays

Population vulnerabilities in rural and urban communities

Socio-economic impacts on community health and well-being

bull Cold- and heat-related illnessesbull Respiratory and cardiovascular illnessesbull Increased occupational health risks

bull Damaged public health infrastructurebull Injuries and illnessesbull Social and mental health stress due to disastersbull Occupational health hazardsbull Population displacement

bull Changed exposure to outdoor and indoor air pollutants and allergensbull Asthma and other respiratory diseasesbull Heart attacks strokes and other cardiovascular diseasesbull Cancer

bull Enteric diseases and poisoning caused by chemical and biological contaminants

bull Changed patterns of diseases caused by bacteria viruses and other pathogens carried by mosquitoes ticks and other vectors

bull Skin damage and skin cancerbull Cataractsbull Disturbed immune function

bull Seniorsbull Childrenbull Chronically ill peoplebull Low income and homeless peoplebull Northern residentsbull Disabled peoplebull People living off the land

bull Loss of income and productivitybull Social disruptionbull Diminished quality of lifebull Increased costs to health carebull Health effects of mitigation technologiesbull Lack of institutional capacity to deal with disasters

S U M M A R Y xx i i i

temperatures tend to increase bacterial levels and can encourage the growth of toxic organismsincluding those responsible for red tides (toxic algal outbreaks)

Warmer weather may also make conditions more favourable for the establishment and proliferation of vector-borne diseases by encouraging the northward migration of species of mosquitoes ticks and fleas and by speedingpathogen development rates Some diseases ofpotential concern include malaria West Nile virusLyme disease and Eastern and Western EquineEncephalitis Mosquito-borne diseases such asWest Nile virus and malaria may also be able toexploit an increase in breeding grounds resultingfrom increased flooding

Communities in northern Canada would face additional health-related issues due to the impacts ofclimate change on the distribution and characteris-tics of permafrost sea ice and snow cover In factthere is strong evidence that northern regions arealready experiencing the impacts of climate changeSome key concerns include the consequences of

these changes on travel safety ability to hunt traditional food access to clean drinking water and fish contamination

Some emerging issues with respect to climatechange and health include potential effects onallergens and human behaviour Increased tempera-tures elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations andlonger growing seasons would encourage plantgrowth and pollen production Human behaviourcould be affected by increases in natural hazardsand extreme climate events as these can lead topsychological stresses including elevated anxietylevels and depression

Although Canadians are already adjusted to a variable climate climate change would place newstresses on the health sector which would requireadditional adaptations To maximize the effective-ness of climate change adaptations climate changeshould be incorporated into existing populationhealth frameworks Integrating efforts between different groups to develop a co-ordinated responseto climate change and health and expanding moni-toring and outreach initiatives is also important

xx iv Climate Change Impacts and Adaptat ion

Adaptation has the potential to significantly reduce health-related vulnerabilities to climatechange Some adaptation initiatives include thedevelopment of vaccines against emerging diseasespublic education programs aimed at reducing therisk of disease exposure and transmission andimproving disaster management plans so as toenhance emergency preparedness The implementa-tion of early warning systems for extreme heat andcold is another effective adaptation strategy whichhas recently been introduced in Toronto OntarioReducing the heat island effect in urban areas would also reduce future climate change impacts

Research Needs andKnowledge Gaps

Although certain research needs are unique to eachsector other issues are recurrent throughout thereport For example each sector would benefit fromincreased research on social and economic impactsas well as improved access to and availability ofdata Research that integrates impacts and adapta-tion issues across different sectors and examinestheir interrelations and interdependencies is neededas well It is also frequently recommended thatresearch focus on regions and sectors considered to be most vulnerable as well as on the climatechanges that would pose the greatest threats tohuman systems These include extreme climateevents rapid climate change and climate changesthat cause critical thresholds to be exceeded

Other research needs and knowledge gaps identified throughout the report include

1) Better understanding of the interactive effectsbetween climate change and non-climatic stresses such as land use change and population growth

2) Better understanding of the linkages between science and policy and how to strengthen them

3) Studies on the potential social economic andorenvironmental consequences of implementingadaptation options

4) Better understanding of current capacity to deal with stress and ways to enhance adaptive capacity

5) Understanding of the barriers to adaptation and how to reduce them

6) Studies on how to incorporate climate changeinto existing risk management frameworks andlong-term planning

7) Improved understanding of the factors that influence adaptation decision-making and how to designate responsibility for action

Conclusion

Climate change is now recognized in the internationalscience and policy communities as a risk that needs tobe addressed through adaptation as well as throughmitigation Changes of the magnitude projected bythe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forthe current century would have significant impacts on Canada Different sectors and regions would havediffering vulnerabilities which are a function of thenature of climate change the sensitivity of the sectoror region and its adaptive capacity Although bothbenefits and challenges are expected to result fromfuture climate change there is general consensus inthe literature that negative impacts will likely prevailfor all but the most modest warming scenariosAdaptation is critical to minimizing the negativeimpacts of climate change and allowing us to capitalize on potential benefits Effective adaptationstrategies should consider current and future vulnera-bilities and aim to incorporate climate change intoexisting risk management frameworks Continuedresearch into the potential impacts of climate change and the processes of adaptation would further contribute to reducing Canadarsquos vulnerabilityto climate change

Introduction

Climate change has often been described as ldquoone ofthe most pressing environmental challengesrdquo(2) Ourlifestyles our economies our health and our socialwell-being are all affected by climate Changes inclimate have the potential to impact all regions ofthe world and virtually every economic sectorAlthough impacts will not be evenly distributedaround the globe all countries will need to deal in one way or another with climate change

Our Changing Climate

ldquoAn increasing body of observations gives a collective

picture of a warming world and other changes in the

climate systemrdquo(3)

Climate is naturally variable and has changedgreatly over the history of the Earth Over the

past two million years the Earthrsquos climate hasalternated between ice ages and warm interglacialperiods On shorter time scales too climatechanges continuously For example over the last10 000 years most parts of Canada have experiencedclimate conditions that at different times werewarmer cooler wetter and drier than experiencedat present Indeed with respect to climate the onlyconstant is that of continuous change

There are a number of factors that drive climatevariability These include changes in the Earthrsquosorbit changes in solar output sunspot cycles volcanic eruptions and fluctuations in greenhousegases and aerosols These factors operate over arange of time scales but when considered togethereffectively explain most of the climate variabilityover the past several thousand years These naturaldrivers alone however are unable to account forthe increase in temperature and accompanying suiteof climatic changes observed over the 20th century(Figure 1)

ldquoToday we face the reality that human activities have

altered the Earthrsquos atmosphere and changed the balance

of our natural climaterdquo (1)

I N T R O D U C T I O N 3

FIGURE 1 Global instrumental temperature record and modelled reconstructions a) using only natural drivers andb) including natural drivers greenhouse gases and aerosols (from reference 4)

4 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptat ion

Over the last century global mean surface tempera-ture has risen by about 06ordmC (Figure 1 reference 5)Although not unprecedented this rate of warming islikely to have been the greatest of any century inthe last thousand years(5) All regions of the worldhave not warmed by the same amount certainareas have warmed much more than others andsome comparatively small areas have even experi-enced cooling The timing of warming has also beenvariable Most of the warming occurred over twodistinct time periods of the 20th century (Figure 1areference 5) there have been seasonal differences inthe amount of warming observed (see reference 6for Canadian data) and night-time minimum tem-peratures have increased by about twice as much as daytime maximum temperatures(5)

This warming observed over the 20th century hasbeen accompanied by a number of other changes inthe climate system(5) For example there has verylikely been an increase in the frequency of dayswith extremely high temperatures and a decreasein the number of days of extreme cold(5) Globalsea level has risen while sea-ice thickness andextent has decreased The extent of snow and icecover has very likely declined and permafrostthickness has decreased in many northern areas Inthe northern hemisphere annual precipitation hasvery likely increased and heavy precipitation eventshave likely become more common(5)

Why have these changes in climate been occurringMuch research has addressed this question and the answer has become increasingly confident overtime ldquomost of the warming observed over the last50 years is attributable to human activitiesrdquo(3) Thatis to say that recent changes in climate can only beexplained when the effects of increasing atmosphericconcentrations of greenhouse gases are taken intoaccount (Figure 1)

The Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse gases such as water vapour carbondioxide (CO2) methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide(N2O) are emitted through natural processes includ-ing plant decomposition and respiration volcaniceruptions and ocean fluxes (eg evaporation)Once in the atmosphere these gases trap and reflectheat back toward the Earthrsquos surface through aprocess known as the greenhouse effect Although

this process is necessary for maintaining tempera-tures capable of supporting life on Earth humanactivities such as the burning of fossil fuels andland-use changes have significantly increased theconcentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmos-phere over the past century For example theatmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased byabout 30 since the industrial revolution from280 parts per million (ppm) in the late 1700s toabout 372 ppm in 2002 (Figure 2 reference 7)Humans have also introduced other more potentgreenhouse gases such as halocarbons (eg chlo-rofluorocarbons) to the atmosphere This buildupof greenhouse gases due to human activityenhances the Earthrsquos natural greenhouse effect

FIGURE 2 Trends in atmospheric CO2 CH4 and N2O duringthe last 1 000 years (from reference 3)


Looking to the Future

Climate scenarios are used to project how climatemay change in the future These projections are notpredictions of what will happen but instead repre-sent one of any number of plausible futures Currentprojections as summarized in the Third AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) suggest that global average tempera-ture could rise by 14-58degC between 1990 and 2100(Figure 3 reference 3)

Due to our northern latitude and large landmassCanada is projected to experience greater rates ofwarming than many other regions of the world mdashby some estimates more than double the globalaverage Changes in climate would be variableacross the country with the Arctic and the southernand central Prairies projected to warm the most(Figure 4)

FIGURE 3 Projected temperature increases for different scenarios within the context of 1 000 years of historic record(from reference 8)



Image courtesy of Canadian Institute of Climate Studies

FIGURE 5 Precipitation change based on Canadian Global Coupled Model 2-A21 for the period 2070ndash2099


Although the uncertainty associated with projectingfuture changes in precipitation is greater than fortemperature average annual precipitation is generallyexpected to increase and changes in precipitationpatterns are likely (Figure 5) For instance heavyprecipitation events are expected to become more

frequent and there are likely to be larger year-to-yearvariations in precipitation(5) Seasonal differences willalso be important as most models suggest that therewill be less precipitation during the summer monthsbut increased winter precipitation over most ofCanada Seasonal changes in precipitation patternsare expected to be more important than changes inannual totals in terms of impacting human activitiesand ecosystems

The probability of extreme climate events will alsochange in the future Such changes would occurwhether there is a shift in mean values (eg suchas is projected for annual temperature) a change inclimatic variability or both (Figure 6)(9) Increasesin the frequency of extreme climate events are oneof the greatest concerns associated with climatechange Such extreme events include heat wavesdroughts floods and storms Recent losses from the1998 ice storm and the 1996 Saguenay River floodare testament to Canadarsquos vulnerability to suchevents (see Box 1)

A Range of Impacts

There is increasing evidence that climate change is already affecting human and natural systemsaround the world In Canada this is most evident inthe North where changes in ice cover permafroststability and wildlife distribution are impacting tra-ditional ways of life(11) For example changes insea-ice distribution and extent have made travel inthe North more difficult and dangerous and haveaffected access to hunting grounds(12) In otherregions of Canada changes in water flows fishpopulations tree distribution forest fires droughtand agricultural and forestry pests have been asso-ciated with recent warming (see lsquoWater ResourcesrsquolsquoFisheriesrsquo lsquoAgriculturersquo and lsquoForestryrsquo chapters)


FIGURE 6 Changes in climate mean values and variabilitywill increase the frequency of climatic extremes(from reference 9)


Continued climate change as projected by climatemodels would impact all areas of the country andnearly every sector of the Canadian economyAlthough a gradual increase in temperature couldbring some benefits for Canada (eg longer growingseasons and fewer deaths from extreme cold) itwould also present challenges For example highertemperatures could increase damage from distur-bances such as forest fires and pests (Figure 7)and increase heat-related morbidity and mortalityAn increase in the frequency andor intensity ofextreme climate events would have the most seriousnegative impacts Experience indicates that naturaldisasters such as drought flooding and severestorms often exceed our ability to cope resultingin significant social and economic impacts

FIGURE 7 An increase in temperature and drought conditions in the Prairies as projected by climate models could lead to more intense and widespread grasshopper infestations in the future

Image courtesy of D Johnson

1998 Ice StormCause 50 to gt100 mm of freezing rain over 5 daysLocation Corridor extending from Kingston Ontario to

New Brunswick including the OttawaMontreacuteal and Monteacutereacutegie regions

Deaths 28Injured 945Evacuated 600 000Other impacts Massive power outagesEstimated cost $54 billion

1996 Saguenay FloodCause 290 mm of rainfall in less than 36 hoursLocation Saguenay River valley QuebecDeaths 10Injured 0Evacuated 15 825Other impacts Downed power lines damage to major

bridges industry closuresEstimated cost $16 billion

BOX 1 Two disasters of the late 1990s (from reference 10)


Adapting to a ChangingClimate

Responding to climate change requires a two-prongedapproach that involves reducing greenhouse gasemissions referred to as climate change mitigationand adjusting activities and practices to reduce ourvulnerability to potential impacts referred to asadaptation Mitigation is necessary to decrease boththe rate and the magnitude of global climate changeMitigation will not however prevent climate changefrom occurring The nature of the Earthrsquos climatesystems means that temperatures would continue torise even after stabilization of CO2 and other green-house gases is achieved (Figure 8) Adaptation istherefore necessary to complement mitigation strate-gies The United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocoleach include requirements for parties to considerclimate change adaptation The Kyoto Protocol for example states that parties must ldquofacilitate adequate adaptation to climate changerdquo(Article 10b reference 13)

Adaptation refers to activities that minimize thenegative impacts of climate change andor positionus to take advantage of new opportunities that maybe presented Adaptation is not a new concepthumans have always adapted to change and willcontinue to do so in the future Canadians forinstance have developed a range of strategies that have allowed us to deal effectively with ourextremely variable climate Consider our climate-controlled houses and offices our warning systemsfor thunderstorms and tornadoes and even ourwide variety of seasonal clothing

There are two main concerns with respect to ourability to adapt to future climate change First the rate of change projected by climate models isunprecedented in human history As the rate ofchange increases our ability to adapt efficientlydeclines Second as previously stated the frequencyand intensity of extreme events are projected toincrease In the past decade losses from the 1998 icestorm flooding in Manitoba and Quebec droughtand forest fires in western Canada storm surges inAtlantic Canada and numerous other events clearlydemonstrate our vulnerability to climate extremes

FIGURE 8 Carbon dioxide concentration temperature and sea level continue to rise long after emissions are reduced(from reference 8)


A number of different types of adaptation strategieshave been identified to reduce vulnerability to cli-mate change (see Table 1) Adaptation includesactivities that are taken before impacts are observed(anticipatory) as well as those that occur afterimpacts have been felt (reactive) Adaptation canalso be the result of deliberate policy decisions(planned adaptation) or it can occur spontaneously(autonomous adaptation) Adaptation in unmanagednatural systems will be reactive and autonomouswhile managed systems will be able to benefit from anticipatory planned adaptation strategiesIndividuals and many different groups includingorganizations industry and all levels of govern-ment will implement adaptation options The mosteffective and cost-efficient adaptive responses willgenerally be anticipatory and involve collaborationsamong different groups

In most cases the goal of adaptation is to enhanceadaptive capacity (see lsquoDirectionsrsquo chapter) Adaptivecapacity is defined as ldquothe ability of a system toadjust to climate change (including climate variabilityand extremes) to moderate potential damages totake advantage of opportunities or to cope withthe consequencesrdquo(14) A sector or region with ahigh adaptive capacity would generally be able tocope with and perhaps even benefit from changes

in the climate whereas one with a low adaptivecapacity would be more likely to suffer as a resultof the same change In addition to reducing vulner-ability to future climate change enhancing adaptivecapacity would also increase our ability to dealwith present-day climate variability

Scope and Goal of this Report

The first assessment of climate change impacts andadaptation on a national scale in Canada was com-pleted in 1998 Called the Canada Country Studythe assessment was conducted by experts from gov-ernment industry universities and nongovernmentalorganizations and provided a review of scientificand technical literature on climate change impactsand adaptation The multi-volume report examinedthe impacts of climate change across Canadarsquosregions and economic sectors as well as potentialadaptive responses Among the many conclusions ofthe Canada Country Study was that climate changehas the potential to impact our natural resourceindustries all socio-economic sectors and thereforeldquoCanadarsquos prosperity and well-beingrdquo(15)

TABLE 1 Adaptation strategies

Category Explanation Example

Bear the costs Do nothing to reduce vulnerability and Allow household lawns and gardens to witherabsorb losses

Prevent the loss Adopt measures to reduce vulnerability Protect coastal communities with seawalls or groins

Spread or share the loss Spread burden of losses across different Crop insurancesystems or populations

Change the activity Stop activities that are not sustainable under the Make ski resort a four-season facility to attract new climate and substitute with other activities tourists year round

Change the location Move the activity or system Move ice fishing operations farther north

Enhance adaptive capacity Enhance the resiliency of the system to improve Reduce non-climatic stresses such as pollutionits ability to deal with stress


This report Climate Change Impacts and AdaptationA Canadian Perspective provides an update to the Canada Country Study by focusing on researchconducted between 1997 and 2002 A considerableamount of work has been completed on climatechange impacts and adaptation during this timedue in part to the attention brought to the issue by the Canada Country Study as well as targetedresearch funding programs and international initia-tives such as the reports of the IPCC ClimateChange Impacts and Adaptation A CanadianPerspective is not a comprehensive assessment ofthe literature but rather a summary of recent studieswith the goal of raising awareness of the range and significance of climate change impacts andadaptation issues Throughout the report the termldquoclimate changerdquo is used to refer to any change inclimate over time whether it be the product of nat-ural variability human activity or both That is howthe IPCC uses the term but it differs from the usageof the UNFCCC which restricts the term to climatechanges that can be directly or indirectly related tohuman activity

Although this review focuses primarily on Canadianresearch on climate change impacts and adaptationadditional reference material is included to provideboth a North American and a global context for the Canadian work The report also highlights theresults of research funded by the Government ofCanadarsquos Climate Change Action Fund Althoughmuch of this research has not yet been subject tofull peer review it provides examples of new andoften innovative research in the field of climatechange impacts and adaptation

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation ACanadian Perspective begins with a chapter thatintroduces key concepts in impacts and adaptationresearch and discusses current directions in under-standing vulnerability scenarios and costing Thisis followed by seven chapters that each focus onsectors of key importance to Canada namely waterresources agriculture forestry coastal zone fisheries transportation and human health andwell-being

Vulnerability is a key theme throughout the reportThis focus reflects the shift in impacts and adaptationresearch over recent years from projecting potentialimpacts to understanding the risk that climatechange presents to the environment economy and

society (see lsquoDirectionsrsquo chapter) Vulnerabilitydefined as ldquothe degree to which a system is suscep-tible to or unable to cope with adverse effects ofclimate change including climate variability andextremesrdquo(14) provides a basis for managing therisks of climate change despite the uncertaintiesassociated with future climate projections In thatsense this report also serves as a primer for thenext national-scale assessment of climate changeimpacts and adaptation which will focus on under-standing Canadarsquos vulnerability to climate change

References

1 Natural Resources Canada (2002) Understanding theissue in Climate Change available on-line at httpclimatechangenrcangccaenglishViewaspx=6(accessed October 2003)

2 Government of Canada (2002) Climate change plan for Canada available on-line at httpwwwclimatechangegccaplan_for_canadaindexhtml(accessed October 2003)

3 Albritton DL and Filho LGM (2001) Technicalsummary in Climate Change 2001 The ScientificBasis (ed) JT Houghton Y Ding DJ Griggs M Noguer PJ van der Linden X Dai K Maskelland CA Johnson contribution of Working Group I tothe Third Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change Cambridge UniversityPress Cambridge United Kingdom and New YorkNew York p 21ndash84 also available on-line athttpwwwipccchpubreportshtm (accessedOctober 2003)

4 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001)Summary for policymakers in Climate Change 2001The Scientific Basis (ed) JT Houghton Y DingDJ Griggs M Noguer PJ van der Linden X DaiK Maskell and CA Johnson contribution ofWorking Group I to the Third Assessment Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeCambridge University Press p 1ndash20 also availableon-line at httpwwwipccchpubreportshtm(accessed October 2003)

5Folland CK Karl TR Christy R Clarke RAGruza GV Jouzel J Mann ME Oerlemans JSalinger MJ and Wang SW (2001) Observed climate variability and change in Climate Change2001 The Scientific Basis (ed) JT Houghton Y Ding DJ Griggs M Noguer PJ van der LindenX Dai K Maskell and CA Johnson contribution ofWorking Group I to the Third Assessment Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeCambridge University Press p 99ndash182 also availableon-line at httpwwwgridanoclimateipcc_tarwg1048htm (accessed October 2003)


6 Zhang X Vincent LA Hogg WD and Niitsoo A(2000) Temperature and precipitation trends inCanada during the 20th century Atmosphere-Oceanv 38 no 3 p 395ndash429

7 Blasing TJ and Jones S (2003) Current green-house gas concentrations available on-line at httpcdiacesdornlgovpnscurrent_ghghtml(accessed October 2003)

8 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001)Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report contributionof Working Groups I II and III to the ThirdAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed) RT Watson and the Core Writing Team Cambridge UniversityPress 398 p also available on-line at httpwwwipccchpubreportshtm (accessed October 2003)

9 Smit B and Pilifosova O (2003) From adaptation to adaptive capacity and vulnerability reduction inClimate Change Adaptive Capacity and Development(ed) JB Smith RJT Klein and S Huq ImperialCollege Press London England p 9ndash28

10 Office of Critical Infrastructure Protection andEmergency Preparedness (2003) Disaster databaseavailable on-line at httpwwwocipepgccadisastersearchasplang=eng (accessed October 2003)

11 Berkes F and Jolly D (2002) Adapting to climatechange social-ecological resilience in a Canadianwestern Arctic community Conservation Ecologyv 5 no 2 p 514ndash532

12 Fox S (2002) These are things that are really happening in The Earth is Faster Now IndigenousObservations of Arctic Environmental Change (ed)I Krupnik and D Jolly Arctic Research Consortiumof the United States Fairbanks Alaska p 13ndash53

13 United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (1997) Kyoto Protocol to the UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Changeavailable on-line at httpunfcccintresourcedocsconvkpkpenghtml (accessed October 2003)

14 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001)Annex B glossary of terms available on-line athttpwwwipccchpubsyrglosspdf (accessedOctober 2003)

15 Maxwell B Mayer N and Street R (1997)National summary for policy makers in The CanadaCountry Study Climate Impacts and AdaptationEnvironment Canada 24 p

Research Directions

R E S E A R C H D I R E C T I O N S 15

Climate change impacts and adaptation is a multi-disciplinary field of research that requires an integrative approach In addition to considering awide range of information from the natural sciencesclimate change studies must also incorporate socialeconomic and political research Increasing numbersof researchers are therefore becoming involved inimpacts and adaptation research and the field continues to grow and develop

The First Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in 1990was a strong influence in developing the UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) in 1992 Research on climate changeimpacts at that time focused primarily on thepotential consequences of different scenarios ofgreenhouse gas emissions and options for mitigationAlthough the ability of adaptation to modify futureimpacts was recognized as evident in Article 4 ofthe UNFCCC adaptation generally received littleconsideration in these early studies(2)

The decade following the release of the IPCCrsquos First Assessment Report saw significant evolutionof climate change impacts and adaptation researchdue to a number of factors First there was grow-ing evidence that climate change was alreadyoccurring(3) with significant consequences in someregions(4 5 6) Impacts could no longer be viewed as hypothetical outcomes of various emissions scenarios but instead needed to be addressed asreal and imminent concerns Research was alsosuggesting that there would be changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate eventsand that these changes would likely challengehuman and natural systems much more than

gradual changes in mean conditions would(7) Inaddition it had become apparent that mitigationcould not prevent climate change from occurringtemperatures would continue to rise even if stabi-lization of carbon dioxide were achieved(8) Thesefactors led to recognition among the internationalclimate change community that adaptation was anecessary complement to mitigation for reducingvulnerability to climate change

This shift in attitude is reflected in the changingtitles of the three IPCC Working Group II assess-ment reports completed between 1990 and 2001(Table 1) as well as in a number of recent reports on approaches to impacts and adaptationresearch(8 9 10 11 12)

TABLE 1 Titles of the first second and third assessmentreports of IPCC Working Group II

Year Title

1990 Impacts Assessment of Climate Change

1995 Climate Change 1995 Impacts Adaptation andMitigation of Climate Change

2001 Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability

In Canada the first national assessment of climatechange impacts and adaptation the Canada CountryStudy was published in 1998 This multi-volumereport examined the impacts of climate change as well as potential adaptive responses acrossCanadarsquos regions and economic sectors This assess-ment of research revealed that although traditionalclimate impacts studies (eg sensitivity analyses

ldquoThe role of adaptation to climate change and variability

is increasingly considered in academic research and

its significance is being recognized in national and

international policy debates on climate changerdquo(1)


baseline data gathering and model improvements)were still required there was also a need to pro-ceed with more integrative work that involvedstakeholders addressed costing issues and applieda more multidisciplinary approach The CanadaCountry Study also concluded that limitations inscientific understanding of climate change shouldnot delay the implementation of adaptations thatwould reduce vulnerability to climate change

Reflecting these international and national trends inresearch this chapter focuses first on the conceptsrationale and goals of understanding vulnerabilityto climate change Vulnerability provides a basis for establishing priorities and helps direct researchso that it better contributes to adaptation decisionmaking The next section provides an overview ofthe role of scenarios in impacts and adaptationresearch Climate scenarios project the nature andrate of future changes in climate which stronglyinfluence vulnerability to climate change The finalsection focuses on costing the impacts of andadaptation to climate change Costing researchwhich includes consideration of both market andnonmarket goods and services is seen as a keyapproach to providing quantitative estimates of vulnerability and therefore influencing future adaptation and mitigation decision making

Understanding Vulnerability

ldquoAnalysis of vulnerability provides a starting point

for the determination of effective means of promoting

remedial action to limit impacts by supporting

coping strategies and facilitating adaptationrdquo(13)

Most climate change impacts and adaptation studiescompleted to date have used as a starting pointscenarios of future climate from which potentialimpacts on ecosystems and human activities areidentified and adaptation options assessed Forexample several of the studies cited in this report

used a scenario of doubled concentration of atmos-pheric carbon dioxide as the basis for assessingpotential impacts Although such studies haveyielded useful insights and contributed significantlyto improving our understanding of interactionsbetween climate change ecosystems and humansystems several limitations of this approach havebecome apparent particularly if the goal of suchstudies is to assist in adaptation decision making

For instance studies based primarily on the outputof climate models tend to be characterized by resultswith a high degree of uncertainty and large rangesmaking it difficult to estimate levels of risk(15) Inaddition the complexity of the climate ecologicalsocial and economic systems that researchers are

BOX 1 Definitions of key terms (from reference 14)

Vulnerability ldquoThe degree to which a system issusceptible to or unable to cope with adverseeffects of climate change including climate variability and extremes Vulnerability is a functionof the character magnitude and rate of climatevariation to which a system is exposed its sensi-tivity and its adaptive capacityrdquo

Sensitivity ldquoThe degree to which a system is affectedeither adversely or beneficially by climate-relatedstimuli The effect may be direct (eg a change in crop yield in response to a change in the meanrange or variability of temperature) or indirect (eg damages caused by an increase in the fre-quency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise)rdquo

Adaptive capacity ldquoThe ability of a system toadjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potentialdamages to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequencesrdquo

modelling means that the validity of scenario resultswill inevitably be subject to ongoing criticism Forexample recent papers suggest that the exclusion ofland-use change and biological effects of enhancedcarbon dioxide(16) and the poor representation ofextreme events(17) limit the utility of many commonlyused scenarios Such criticisms should not be inter-preted as questioning the value of scenarios indeedthere is no other tool for projecting future condi-tions What they do however is emphasize theneed for a strong foundation upon which scenarioscan be applied a foundation that provides a basisfor managing risk despite uncertainties associatedwith future climate changes

This foundation lies in the concept of vulnerabilityThe IPCC defines vulnerability as ldquothe degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable tocope with adverse effects of climate changeincluding climate variability and extremesrdquo(14)

Vulnerability is a function of a systemrsquos exposureto the impacts of climate its sensitivity to thoseimpacts and its ability to adapt(18) It is importantto distinguish vulnerability from sensitivity whichis defined as ldquothe degree to which a system isaffected either adversely or beneficially by climate-related stimulirdquo(14) Sensitivity does notaccount for the moderating effect of adaptationstrategies whereas vulnerability can be viewed as the impacts that remain after adaptations havebeen taken into account(13) Therefore although a system may be considered highly sensitive to climate change it is not necessarily vulnerableSocial and economic factors play an important rolein defining the vulnerability of a system or region

Applying a vulnerability approach to climatechange impacts and adaptation research involvesfive major steps as outlined in Figure 1 In thisapproach an understanding of the current state of the system provides an initial assessment of vulnerability that is independent of future changesin climate This allows researchers to improve their understanding of the entire system and develop more realistic estimates of the feasibility

of future adaptation options Consideration of current conditions also encourages the involvementof stakeholders (see Box 2) and facilitates the imple-mentation of ldquono-regretsrdquo adaptation strategies To assess future vulnerabilities researchers buildupon the knowledge achieved through examiningcurrent vulnerability by applying projections offuture climatic and socio-economic conditions

FIGURE 1 Steps in the vulnerability approach Note thatresearch need not follow a linear progressioninstead the process should be iterative withsome steps being undertaken simultaneously


Vulnerability Approach

Engage stakeholdersImportant to both engage and retain

stakeholders throughout project

Assess current vulnerabilityInvolves understanding adaptive capacity

critical thresholds and coping ranges

Estimate future conditionsInvolves using climate environmental

and socio-economic scenarios

Estimate future vulnerabilityIs determined by the two previous steps

(current vulnerability and future conditions)

Decisions and implementationInvolves assessment of options available

to reduce vulnerability


The primary goal of the vulnerability approach is to promote research that contributes to adaptationdecision-making by providing a framework inwhich priorities can be established in spite of theuncertainties concerning future climate change

Factors Affecting Current Vulnerabilities

The current vulnerability of a system is influencedby the interrelated factors of adaptive capacity coping ranges and critical thresholds

The IPCC defines adaptive capacity as ldquothe abilityof a system to adjust to climate change (includingclimate variability and extremes) to moderate poten-tial damages to take advantage of opportunities orto cope with the consequencesrdquo(14) More simplyadaptive capacity is a measure of a systemrsquos abilityto adapt to change A system with a high adaptivecapacity is able to cope with and perhaps even ben-efit from changes in the climate whereas a systemwith a low adaptive capacity would be more likelyto suffer from the same change Enhancing adaptivecapacity is an often-recommended ldquono-regretsrdquoadaptation strategy that brings both immediate and long-term benefits

Considerable research has been dedicated to iden-tifying the factors that influence adaptive capacity(see Table 2) Although this research provides usefulindicators quantitative assessment of adaptive capacityremains challenging In fact there is little agreementon the necessary criteria for evaluating these deter-minants and what variables should be used(8)

Characteristics such as per capita income educationlevel and population density have been used asproxy variables for some of the determinants(21)

Current vulnerability is often estimated by examininghow a system has responded to past climate variabil-ity A system that has a proven ability to adapt tohistorical climate fluctuations and stress is generallyconsidered less vulnerable Researchers thereforesuggest that there is much to be learned from thenatural hazards literature(22) Studying how commu-nities have responded socially economically andpolitically to past disasters provides insight into poten-tial responses to future events Other researcherscaution however that observed responses to pastevents may potentially be ldquohighly misleading pre-dictors of future responserdquo(23) It is important toconsider the ability of a region or community to learnfrom the past and implement strategies to reducelosses from similar events in the future For examplesince the 1998 ice storm Quebec has taken signifi-cant measures to strengthen emergency preparednessand response capacity and is therefore much betterpositioned to cope with future extreme events(24)

BOX 2 Involving stakeholders

WhoStakeholders includebull industry representatives public planners

landowners policy-makers and others who will potentially be affected by climate change

WhyStakeholders providebull a strong understanding of the system or region

being studiedbull knowledge of key issues and research needs

andbull mechanisms through which to apply research

results to decision-making and adaptationimplementation

Stakeholders gainbull increased likelihood of having their priorities

addressed andbull stronger understanding of the potential and

limits of study results(19)

HowStakeholder participation may involvebull sitting on advisory committees bull providing feedback on work plans draft reports

and scenario selection and bull contributing ideas and information(20)

Establish a dialogue between stakeholders and researchers to provide a two-way exchange of information(19)

WhenEngage stakeholders at the initial stage of theproject and maintain stakeholder involvementthroughout the entire project


By examining response to past climatic variabilityit is possible to define the coping range of a givensystem (see Box 3) The coping range refers to theldquorange of circumstances within which by virtue ofthe underlying resilience of the system significantconsequences are not observedrdquo(21) Critical thresholds

can be viewed as the upper and lower boundariesof coping ranges(21) and are usually location spe-cific(25) Significant impacts are expected to occurwhen critical thresholds are exceeded Some exam-ples of critical thresholds include the maximum air temperature at which a specific crop can grow

TABLE 2 Key determinants of adaptive capacity (based on reference 8)

Determinant Explanation

Economic resources bull Greater economic resources increase adaptive capacitybull Lack of financial resources limits adaptation options

Technology bull Lack of technology limits range of potential adaptation optionsbull Less technologically advanced regions are less likely to develop andor

implement technological adaptations

Information and skills bull Lack of informed skilled and trained personnel reduces adaptive capacitybull Greater access to information increases likelihood of timely and appropriate adaptation

Infrastructure bull Greater variety of infrastructure can enhance adaptive capacity since it provides more optionsbull Characteristics and location of infrastructure also affect adaptive capacity

Institutions bull Well-developed social institutions help to reduce impacts of climate-related risks and therefore increase adaptive capacity

Equity bull Equitable distribution of resources increases adaptive capacitybull Both availability of and access to resources is important

BOX 3 Coping range and critical thresholds

Time series of a climate variable (eg temperature)

Coping range ldquoThe variation in climatic stimuli that a system can absorb without producing significant impactsrdquo (14)

Critical thresholds The boundaries of coping ranges significant impacts result when critical thresholds are exceeded(21)

Upper threshold

Lower threshold

Increased coping

range due toadaptation

Copingrange

Adaptationimplementation

Time (years)


the minimum river water levels required for fishsurvival and the maximum intensity of rainfall thatcan be handled by an urban storm-sewer systemCritical thresholds are not always absolute valuesbut rather may refer to a rate of change(25) Somesystems may be able to respond readily to slow ratesof change even for long periods of time whereas amore rapid rate of change would exceed the ability ofthe system to adjust and result in significant impacts

Understanding the coping range and critical thresholds of a system is an important prerequisiteto assessing the likely impacts of climate changeand estimating the potential role of adaptationCoping ranges can however be influenced by a range of physical social and political factors and therefore may not be easy to define In someinstances traditional knowledge may be an impor-tant complement to other data for improving understanding of coping ranges as well as overall vulnerability to climate change(26 27)

Assessing Future Vulnerabilities

To estimate future vulnerabilities researchers applyscenarios (projections of future climate and socio-economic conditions) to build upon the knowledgeand understanding of the system gained throughassessing current vulnerability Important considera-tions include the nature and rate of future climatechange including shifts in extreme weather and theinfluence of changes in socio-economic conditions

Once the coping range of a system has been definedclimate scenarios can be used as a starting pointfor determining the probability of exceeding criticalthresholds in the future(25) Consider a simplifiedexample of river flow volume presented by Yoheand Tol(21) The upper and lower critical thresholdscan be defined by examining current and historicaldata for the river For instance the upper thresholdcould correspond to the maximum flow volume beforeserious flooding occurs and the lower thresholdmay represent the minimum flow required to sustainwater demand in the region (see Box 4 Graph A)The frequency with which these two thresholds havebeen exceeded in the historical period can be deter-mined and water managers and other stakeholdersrecognize this probability as the risks associated withliving in the region Using data from climate scenarios

researchers can estimate how flow volumes couldchange in the future and thereby affect the proba-bility of critical thresholds being exceeded (seeBox 4 Graph B) Note that exact predictions of thefuture are not required with this approach as thefocus is on estimated probabilities(25) Furthermoresince this information builds upon current under-standing of the river system and is presented in termsthat are currently used by water managers it can beintegrated into existing risk-management frameworks

BOX 4 River flow example of coping range (modified from reference 21)

Graph A Historical time series of river flow Notethat over the time period of record flooding occursthree times and there is insufficient water to meetdemand two times

Graph B Hypothetical future river flow regime withincreased variability (higher maximum flows lowerminimum flows) and trend of increased flow Notethat flooding now occurs five times and there isinsufficient water to meet demand four times

Coping Range

Flooding occurs

Insufficient water to meet demand

Time (years)

Rive

r flo

w (m

3 s)

Trend line

Rive

r flo

w (m

3 s)

Coping Range

Flooding occurs


Time (years)


It is important to recognize that coping ranges can change over time either deliberately throughplanned adaptation or unintentionally In urbanareas for example communities may be able toreduce heat-related health effects and thereforeincrease tolerance to heat waves by introducingsuch adaptive measures as issuing heat-healthalerts improving access to air-conditioned areasand increasing the use of ldquocool roofsrdquo which reduceheat absorption by buildings (see lsquoHuman Healthand Well-Beingrsquo chapter) In the river flow examplediscussed above adaptation options such as addinga dam dredging the river or building levees canincrease the upper critical threshold of river flowallowing riverside communities to tolerate higherflow levels (reference 21 see also Box 3) Similarlyintroducing water conservation measures such asrestrictions on outdoor water use and improvedwater use and storage efficiency may decreasebaseline demand for water(28) Increasing copingranges represents a fundamental goal of adaptation

Accounting for Adaptation

ldquoIt is meaningless to study the consequences of

climate change without considering the ranges

of adaptive responsesrdquo(29)

Although it is well recognized that appropriateadaptation can reduce vulnerability it is only recentlythat attention has been dedicated to adaptationresearch(2) Adaptation research involves studyingthe processes of adaptation and requires addressingthree key questions

1) What is being adapted to

2) Who or what will adapt and

3) How will adaptation occur(30)

Addressing these questions requires effective collab-oration with stakeholders a strong understanding ofthe system and region being studied and knowledgeof potential adaptation options Recent Canadianexamples of adaptation research include the workof de Loumle et al(28) who investigated criteria foridentifying appropriate adaptation options and

Smit and Skinner(31) who presented a typology ofadaptation options for agriculture Another studyexamined factors influencing adaptation decisionsat the municipal level (see Box 5)

The adaptation literature also acknowledges the difficulties involved in effectively accounting foradaptation in vulnerability studies There are manydifferent and interacting factors that influence the response of humans and ecosystems to stressEvaluation of adaptation must extend beyond ldquoIsadaptation possiblerdquo to also include ldquoIs adaptationprobablerdquo In other words are people both able andwilling to adapt Additional research into the factorsthat affect the feasibility effectiveness cost andacceptability of adaptation options is recommended(23)

BOX 5 Understanding barriers to adaptation atthe municipal level(32)

Researchers conducted interviews in six municipal-ities across the country to better understand thebarriers to climate change adaptation at themunicipal level These interviews revealed thatfinancial constraints attitudes of the public andcouncil members and the nature of the municipalpolitical process were key factors influencing thedegree to which climate change was consideratedin infrastructure decisions In general a lack ofawareness of the importance of climate changeimpacts was an often-cited barrier to adaptation

To address these barriers researchers suggestedproviding municipal staff with detailed informationon potential climate change impacts on infrastruc-ture Improving relationships and communicationbetween scientific researchers and municipal staffwas also suggested as were various ideas fordealing with financial issues


Scenarios

ldquoScenarios are one of the main tools for assessment

of future developments in complex systems that often

are inherently unpredictable are insufficiently under-

stood and have high scientific uncertaintiesrdquo(17)

Scenarios play an important role in impacts andadaptation research As discussed in the previoussection scenarios are the only tool available forprojecting future conditions and future conditionsare a key factor influencing vulnerability In additionto changes in climate changes in social economicand political conditions will strongly influence thenet impacts of climate change and our ability to adaptIt is important to recognize that climate and socio-economic scenarios are strongly interrelated in thatfuture changes in global greenhouse gas emissionswill reflect evolving social and economic conditions

This section provides a brief overview of the differenttypes of scenarios available to the impacts andadaptation research community while highlightingrecent developments and future directions

What are Scenarios

Scenarios are used to determine how conditionsmay change in the future A scenario can bedefined as ldquohellipa coherent internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future stateof the worldrdquo(33) It is important to note that a sce-nario is not a prediction of the future since use ofthe term ldquopredictionrdquo or ldquoforecastrdquo implies that aparticular outcome is most likely to occur Rather a scenario represents one of any number of possiblefutures which can be used to provide data for vul-nerability impacts and adaptation studies to scopethe range of plausible futures to guide and explorethe implications of adaptation and mitigation deci-sions and to raise awareness of climate changeissues They provide a range of possible futuresthat allow consideration of the uncertainty relatingto the different pathways that exist for future socialeconomic and environmental change

Leadership regarding the construction of climatescenarios is provided by the IPCC Task Group onScenarios for Climate Impact Assessment (IPCC-TGCIA) Much of the material presented here isbased on the IPCC-TGCIA General Guidelines onthe Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact andAdaptation Assessment(34) as well as on the chapterof the IPCCrsquos Third Assessment Report that examinesscenario development(35)

Types of Scenarios

Global Climate Models

The most common and widely accepted method ofscenario construction involves the use of the outputof Global Climate Models (GCMs) also known asGeneral Circulation Models GCMs are mathematicalrepresentations of the large-scale physical processesof the Earth-atmosphere-ocean system that providea complete and internally consistent view of futureclimate change Background information on GCMscan be obtained from the Canadian Climate ImpactsScenarios Web site (httpwwwcicsuviccascenariosindexcgi)

The most recently developed GCMs contain a repre-sentation of the changes in atmospheric compositionon a year-by-year basis from about 1860 to 1990and are therefore able to simulate global-averageconditions over this time period with much morereliability than earlier models Recent GCMs arealso able to model the effects of sulphate aerosolswhich generally have a cooling effect on climate aswell as the warming effects of increased greenhousegas concentrations Overall these newer modelstend to be more reliable than earlier ones sincethey incorporate more processes and feedbacks andare usually of a higher spatial resolution

Despite the improvements in GCM resolution and inthe representation of some of the climate processesduring the last few years there remain limitationsFor example GCM scenario development is verytime-consuming running a single climate changeexperiment with a GCM for a particular emissionsscenario takes several months to a year dependingon the resolution and complexity of the model


In addition GCM output is still not at a fine enoughresolution to enable it to be used directly by mostimpacts researchers Therefore GCM data are gen-erally downscaled to produce gridded datasets ofhigher spatial resolution This downscaling requiresconsiderable time and may introduce additionalsources of error and uncertainty Developments arecurrently under way however to improve modelresolution and better represent land-surface condi-tions There are also a number of recent and ongoingstudies that focus on manipulating scenario data tobuild datasets of projections for specific regions orsectors in Canada (see Table 3) The results of thesestudies will be useful for the impacts and adaptationresearch community

TABLE 3 Examples of recent and ongoing scenariosresearch using GCMs (funded by Climate Change Action Fund Science Component)

Project title Sector or region of focus

Development of climate Agriculture major agriculturalchange scenarios for the regions of Canadaagricultural sector

Transient climate change Forestry across Canadascenarios for high-resolution assessment of impacts on Canadarsquos forest ecosystems

Climate change scenarios Fisheries Fraser River and for sockeye and coho northeastern Pacificsalmon stocks

Research using GCM-derived scenarios has beenongoing for the past 15 or so years Although earlyimpacts and adaptation research projects tended toapply only one climate scenario it is now recom-mended that multiple scenarios be used to betterrepresent the range of possible future climates Two recent examples of studies in Canada that have used a range of climate change scenariosfocused on water management and climate changein the Okanagan Basin(36) and on conservation andmanagement options for maintaining island forestswithin the prairie ecosystem(37)

The IPCC-TGCIA established the IPCC Data DistributionCentre (IPCC-DDC httpipcc-ddccruueaacuk)in 1998 to facilitate access to GCM output and climatechange scenarios by the vulnerability impacts andadaptation research community One limitation ofthe IPCC-DDC is that it is only possible to accessthe complete global fields for the GCM output and climate change scenarios which means thatresearchers must be able to cope with and manipu-late large volumes of data This may be problematicfor some researchers

In Canada impacts and adaptation researchers areable to access climate change scenarios through theCanadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) project(httpwwwcicsuviccascenarios) This projectprovides climate change scenarios for Canada andNorth America as well as related information con-cerning the construction and application of climatechange scenarios in impacts studies (see Figure 2)

FIGURE 2 Example of some of the scenario-related information available to impacts researchers from the CanadianClimate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project

HomeScenariosResourcesAbout us

Search

Feedback

Topics Questions

Data FileInformation

BaselineConditions

ScenarioConstructionNotes

GCM InformationTable

In what formats are the scenario data files availableWhat are the unitsWhat are the data change fieldsHow do I open the files in Excel

What is a baseline climateIs the baseline modelled or observed and why

How were these scenario data computedHow were the change fields computedWhat time slices were used and why

What are the differences between the global climatemodels usedWhere can I find journal article references for eachof the global climate models


It is designed to assist climate change impactsresearch in Canada by enabling the visualization of the scenarios and providing access to data viadownload from the project Web site In additionthe project provides scenario tools that help usersselect which scenarios to use in their research and enable them to construct scenarios with finerspatial and temporal resolution than is currentlyprovided by the GCM-derived scenarios

Regional Climate Models

Over the past 10 years significant work has beencompleted in the development of Regional ClimateModels (RCMs)(38) RCMs provide higher spatial resolution data than GCMs by nesting the high-resolution RCM within the coarse resolution GCMThis means that RCMs are susceptible to any systematic errors present in the GCM used(39) Anadvantage of RCMs is their ability to provide infor-mation that is more spatially detailed and at a moreappropriate scale for climate impact studies(40)

There is a high degree of interest among impacts andadaptation researchers for data from RCMs Canadianresearchers have access to a limited amount of RCMdata from the Canadian Regional Climate Model(CRCM) through the Canadian Centre for ClimateModelling and Analysis (CCCma) Output from time-slice simulations (1975ndash1984 2040ndash2049 and2080ndash2089) is available on the CCCma Web site(httpwwwcccmabc ecgccadatarcmrcmshtml) The Ouranos Consortium based inMontreacuteal provides support for the development of the CRCM and also runs climate simulations at the geographic scales most often needed forimpacts and adaptation research(41)

Regional climate models have been used in somerecent studies including a Canadian study thatinvestigated the effect of climate change on fires inthe boreal forest(42) As work continues to improvethe models and increase the availability of RCMscenario data use of these models in impacts andadaptation research will likely increase

Other Types of Climate Scenarios

Synthetic Scenarios

Synthetic scenarios sometimes also called ldquoarbitraryrdquoor ldquoincrementalrdquo scenarios are the simplest climatechange scenarios available Their main use is insensitivity analysis determination of the response

of a particular system (eg crops streams) to arange of climatic variations A synthetic scenario isconstructed by adjusting a historical record for aparticular climate variable by an arbitrary amount(eg increasing precipitation by 10) Most studiesusing synthetic scenarios tend to apply constantchanges throughout the year although some haveintroduced seasonal changes

Analogue Scenarios

Analogue scenarios make use of existing climateinformation either at the site in question (temporalanalogues) or from another location that currentlyexperiences a climate anticipated to resemble thefuture climate of the site under study (spatial ana-logues) Temporal analogues may be constructedfrom paleoclimate information derived from eitherthe geological record (eg from fossil flora andfauna remains sedimentary deposits tree rings orice cores) or from the historical instrumental recordAnalogue scenarios have the advantage of represent-ing conditions that have actually occurred so weknow that they are physically plausible and thereare generally data available for a number of climatevariables Nevertheless since the causes of changesin the analogue climate are generally not triggeredby greenhouse gases some have argued that thesetypes of scenarios are of limited value in quantitativeimpact assessments of future climate change(43)

Socio-economic Scenarios

Scenarios are also used to provide information onprojected changes in social and economic conditionsInformation concerning population and humandevelopment economic conditions land cover andland use and energy consumption is included insocio-economic scenarios

To date the main role of socio-economic scenarioshas been to provide GCMs with information aboutfuture greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions Futurelevels of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions are clearly dependent on a wide range of factorsincluding population growth economic activity and technology The resulting range of possibleemissions futures is captured through a suite ofemissions scenarios For its Third AssessmentReport(44) the IPCC commissioned a Special Reporton Emissions Scenarios (SRES)(45) which describesabout 40 different emissions scenarios Six of thesescenarios have been identified as ldquomarker scenariosrdquo


and are recommended for use by the climate model-ling community These emissions scenarios indicatethat the global-average temperature may increaseby 14ndash58degC by 2100

More recently socio-economic scenarios have alsobeen used to study the sensitivity adaptive capacityand vulnerability of social and economic systems inrelation to climate change(17) There are however a number of difficulties associated with this use ofsocio-economic scenarios For example in additionto the uncertainty in projections of future estimatesof population energy use and economic activityestimates for many of these components aregenerally only available for large regions and musttherefore be adjusted for assessments of smallergeographic areas thus compounding the uncertainty

The IPCC Data Distribution Centre provides links tothe Center for International Earth Science InformationNetwork (CIESIN) at Columbia University in New Yorkfrom which national-scale estimates of populationand gross domestic product (GDP) are availableOther groups working on global-scale socio-economicscenarios include the World Business Council forSustainable Development and the World EnergyCouncil Within Canada scenarios of socio-economicvariables such as population projections for futuretime periods up to 2026 have been developed byStatistics Canada

Costing Climate Change

ldquoThere is some evidence and much speculation

on ways that climate change may affect climate-

sensitive sectors of an economyrdquo(46)

The Canadian economy is highly dependent on thehealth and sustainability of our natural resourceindustries such as forestry fisheries and agricultureand the reliability of our critical infrastructureincluding transportation and health care systemsThe availability and quality of our water resourcesand the sustainability of the coastal zone are alsoimportant to Canadarsquos economic well-being Asillustrated throughout this report climate changewill present new opportunities and challenges foreach of these sectors This will lead to a range ofeconomic impacts both negative and positive andnew investments in adaptation will be required

At present it is difficult to derive quantitative estimates of the potential costs of climate changeimpacts(18 46 47) Limitations are imposed by thelack of agreement on preferred approaches andassumptions limited data availability and a varietyof uncertainties relating to such things as futurechanges in climate social and economic conditionsand the responses that will be made to addressthose changes Ongoing research is motivated bythe fact that a meaningful assessment of climatechange costs both market and nonmarket willstrongly influence both mitigation and adaptationdecisions Indeed the concepts and methods ofeconomics have been recognized as a principalmeans of translating scientific research on climatechange into policies(48)

Economic Impact Assessments

There have been several attempts to estimate thepotential costs of climate change on various economicsectors at the national level in both the United Statesand Canada (see Table 4) Since these studies employdifferent approaches make different assumptionsand operate on varying scales direct comparisonsbetween countries or sectors is not possible Thesenumbers do however illustrate the magnitude andranges of study results

In general assessing the economic impacts of climatechange involves estimating the value of direct andindirect market and nonmarket impacts the costsof implementing adaptation options and the benefitsgained as a result of the adaptation In this casedirect impacts refer to those that occur in the regionitself whereas indirect impacts are those that resultfrom the impacts of climate change on systems andsectors in other regions Market goods and serviceshave well-established ownership and are sold forpayment whereas nonmarket goods and servicesare not traded and are not subject to well-definedproperty rights(46) Some examples of impacts onmarket goods include changes in food forestry andfisheries products the water supply and insurancecosts Impacts on nonmarket entities includechanges in ecosystems loss of human life impactson cultures and changes in political stability(46) Itshould also be noted that impacts on nonmarketservices often have consequences for market goodsand services


Considerable research has focused on determiningvalues of market and nonmarket goods Valuationis often based upon measures of the consumersrsquowillingness to either pay for a positive change or toaccept a negative change(54) Although it is generallyeasier to estimate the impacts on market goods thanon nonmarket entities both present challenges Forexample the value of nonmarket goods and servicesis influenced by personal preferences which tendto change over time in an unpredictable manner(47)

The value of market goods depends on changes insupply and demand which are influenced by manydifferent factors operating at local regional nationaland international levels

It has also been suggested that the likelihood ofundertaking adaptation will depend on whether theimpacts are on market or nonmarket goods andservices Since people (as individuals or throughcompanies households or institutions) have propertyrights in market goods climate change would affectthe value of their assets This provides motivationto undertake adaptations that would help to reducelosses and increase the opportunity to capitalize onpotential opportunities(46) It is in the interest ofhouseholds and firms to adapt as they will see thebenefits of the adaptation directly(55) In contrastthere is a lack of market incentives and mechanismsto adapt to the impacts of climate change on nonmarket goods as well as more uncertainty con-cerning who should be responsible for undertakingthe adaptation These factors must be consideredwhen accounting for the role of adaptation in economic impact studies

The possible costs of climate change have beenestimated in many different ways and studies varygreatly in their complexity and the amount of detailconsidered One approach is to examine historicalevents or trends that are thought to be indicative of future conditions For example some researchershave focused on the economic costs of natural disasters using insurance claims and disaster data-bases to determine the costs of these events(21 56)

Others have examined the economic impacts ofpast anomalous climate conditions such as warmer-than-average winters or extremely hot summers Toaddress sea level rise studies have taken projectionsof sea level rise (eg 05 metres by 2100) and cal-culated the property value that would be lost as aresult of inundation flooding andor erosion(52 57)

Limitations with these types of studies include theirfocus on only one aspect of a changing climate andgenerally insufficient inclusion of both the costsand benefits of adaptation

A more comprehensive approach involves applyinga series of models through integrated assessmentto generate estimates of economic costs Integratedassessment involves combining ldquohellip results and modelsfrom the biological economic and social sciencesand the interactions between these components in a consistent frameworkrdquo(14) This heavy relianceon models and assumptions does however resultin cascading uncertainties(58)

TABLE 4 Annual estimates of welfare changes due to climate change

Sector Country Climate change scenario Annual welfare change estimate

Agriculture(49) US (2060) +15ndash5degC temperature and +7ndash15 precipitation +US$02ndash65 billion

Agriculture(50) Canada (2100) UIUC GCM +US$19ndash49 billion

Forestry(51) US (2140) UKMO OSU GFDL-R30 +US$11ndash23 billion

Sea level rise(52) US Mean sea level rise of 33ndash67 cm ndashUS$895ndash2988 billion

Hydroelectric power US (2060) +15degC and +7 precipitation ndashUS$275 billiongeneration(53)

Abbreviatons UIUC University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign UKMO United Kingdom Meteorological Office OSU Oregon State University

GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory


Specific Issues

Scale of Analysis

At present most costing studies have focused onmodelling the impacts of climate change at thenational or international level (references 18 46see also Table 4) This means that changes andimpacts are aggregated over large regions so thedifferential impacts of climate change on smallerareas are often lost Nor is such analysis consistentwith the fact that many adaptation decisions aremade at the regional or local level(59) Regionalanalysis of the economic consequences of climatechange is limited by the paucity of regional economic data and the difficulties involved in considering economic and biological interactionsbetween regions Although research frameworkshave been developed to help address these concerns(eg reference 46) there are few examples of thesebeing used to facilitate economic analyses at theregional level


Many researchers have expressed concern over theway that adaptation has been represented in costingstudies(48 60) Although it is recognized that adap-tation has a pivotal role in reducing the costs ofclimate change(8) many studies pay little attentionto adaptation Other studies incorporate simplifiedassumptions regarding adaptation by assuming thatadaptation either occurs optimally or not at all anddo not include realistic estimates of the costs ofimplementing adaptation measures(47) despite thefact that research indicates that the costs of adaptingto climate change in Canada would be significant(see Table 5)

Another common concern with respect to the inclusion of adaptation in costing studies is that no distinction is drawn between anticipatory adap-tation and autonomous adaptation despite the factthat there are generally economic advantages toanticipatory adaptation The distribution of adap-tation costs and benefits has also received littleattention(61) These factors reduce the reliability of cost estimates

Interactions between Regions and Sectors

There are strong interrelationships between domesticand international economies As a country that is

highly dependent on trade Canada is sensitive to theimpacts of climate change transmitted through inter-national markets In other words direct impacts ofclimate change in other countries that affect the globalsupply of or demand for goods would affect theCanadian economy At present there is little researchthat specifically examines positive or negative inter-national market spillovers in Canada or elsewhere

In addition economic sectors are not isolated andboth impacts and adaptation actions for one sectorwould have implications for many others Differentsectors share resources or depend on others forinputs(53) For example agriculture recreation hydro-electric power generation and municipal and otherindustrial users all share common water resourcesIncreased conflict between these sectors would beexpected if climate change resulted in reducedwater availability (see lsquoWater Resourcesrsquo chapter)

Value of Nonmarket Services

Although it is clearly recognized that the costs ofclimate change are not only economic it is extremelydifficult to assign values to nonmarket servicessuch as ecosystem functions and cultural uses Forexample the benefits of a wetland including waterfiltration flood control and wildlife habitat are dif-ficult to quantify Therefore most costing studiesdo not adequately account for nonmarket services

TABLE 5 Estimated costs for adapting selected infra-structure to a 5 increase in mean temperatureand a 10 increase in mean precipitation overthe present century (preliminary estimates fromreference 54)

Adaptation Estimated cost

Constructing all-weather $85000 per km plus roads (not on permafrost) $65000ndash$150000 per bridge

Constructing all-weather $500000 per kmroads (on permafrost)

Replacing coastal bridges $600000 per bridgeto cope with sea level rise

Expanding wastewater $65 billiontreatment capacity (Halifax)

Based on 2001 dollar values and costs


There is however growing awareness of the role ofecosystems in economic health stemming largelyfrom sustainable development initiatives For examplea recent report suggests that measures of Canadarsquoswealth should include measures of forest and wet-land cover(62) Other initiatives have begun to assessthe economic value of wetlands to Canada(63) andto address the nontimber (eg wildlife biodiversityrecreation) value of forests(64) Such work althoughnot conducted in the context of climate change willcontribute to improving climate change costing studies

Future Work

In the Third Assessment Report of the IPCCexperts noted that little progress had been made in costing and valuation methodologies between1995 and 2001(12) Therefore much work is neededto quantify the costs and benefits of climate changefor the economy this remains a large research gapfrom both a Canadian(47) and an international(65)

perspective Some recommendations for futurework include(46 66 67 68 69)

bull increased consideration of community character-istics (eg socio-economic political cultural) in costing studies to provide policy-makers witha better understanding of the regional impacts of climate change

bull improved understanding and quantification of the connections between sectors and regions

bull enhanced estimates for losses involving nonmarket goods

bull incorporation of vulnerability and the process of adaptation in the models

bull evaluation of the importance of extreme eventsand climate variability and

bull examination of the role of adaptive capacity ininfluencing the magnitude and nature of climatechange costs (of both impacts and adaptation)

Conclusions

The study of climate change impacts and adaptationrequires integration of a wide range of disciplinesincluding the physical biological and social sciencesand economics Although integrating these disciplinesin the context of an uncertain future is challengingit is necessary in order to obtain results that helpindividuals communities governments and industrydeal with climate change Because climate changewill affect every region of Canada and directly orindirectly influence virtually all activities there is a need to objectively define priorities for researchA framework for establishing priorities lies in theconcept of vulnerability to climate change

An initial assessment of vulnerability is possiblewithout detailed knowledge of future changes basedon analysis of sensitivity to past climate variabilityand the current capacity of the system to adapt tochanging conditions In this manner it is possibleto define coping ranges and critical thresholdsScenarios of climate and socio-economic changespresent a range of plausible futures that provide a context for managing future risk Uncertaintyregarding the nature of future climate change shouldnot be a basis for delaying adaptation to climatechange but rather serve to focus on adaptationmeasures that help to address current vulnerabilitiesthrough expanding coping ranges and increasingadaptive capacity

Many fundamental decisions regarding both climatechange adaptation and mitigation will be influencedby assessment of the costs (and benefits) of climatechange recognizing that many significant socialand environmental impacts are difficult to quantifyThis is one area where relatively little progress hasbeen made over the past few years and that there-fore remains a high research priority in theimmediate future

Indeed there remain many questions to beaddressed and much research to be conducted in the field of climate change impacts and adapta-tion The three themes discussed in this chapterwill be reflected in future work For example the fourth assessment report of the IPCC willinclude a strong focus on adaptation and increasedconsideration of socio-economic impacts(70 71)


References

Citations in bold denote reports of research sup-ported by the Government of Canadarsquos ClimateChange Action Fund

(1) Smit B Burton I Klein R and Wandel J (2000)An anatomy of adaptation to climate change andvariability Climatic Change v 45 no 1 p 233ndash51

(2) Smit B and Pilifosova O (2003) From adaptationto adaptive capacity and vulnerability reduction inClimate Change Adaptive Capacity and Development(ed) JB Smith RJT Klein and S Huq ImperialCollege Press London UK p 9ndash28

(3) Foland CK Karl TR Christy JR Clarke RAGruza GV Jouzel J Mann ME Oerelemans JSalinger MJ and Wang SW (2001) Observed climatevariability and change in Climate Change 2001 The Scientific Basis (ed) JT Houghton Y Ding DJ Griggs M Noguer PJ van der Linden X DaiK Maskell and CA Johnson contribution ofWorking Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeCambridge University Press p 99ndash182 also availableon-line at httpwwwgridanoclimateipcc_tarwg1048htm (accessed October 2003)

(4) Berkes F and Jolly D (2002) Adapting to climatechange social-ecological resilience in a Canadianwestern Arctic community Conservation Ecology v 5 no 2 p 514ndash32

(5) Walther GR Post E Convey P Menzel AParmesan C Beebee TJC Fromentin J-MHoegh-Guldberg O and Bairlein F (2002)Ecological responses to recent climate changeNature v 416 p 389ndash95

(6) Root TL Price JT Hall KR Schneider SHRosenzweig C and Pounds JA (2003) Fingerprintsof global warming on wild animals and plantsNature v 42 p 57ndash60

(7) Watson RT McCarthy JJ and Canziani OF (2001)Preface in Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptationand Vulnerability (ed) JJ McCarthy OF CanzianiNA Leary DJ Dokken and KS White contributionof Working Group II to the Third Assessment Reportof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeCambridge University Press p ix also available on-line at httpwwwgridanoclimateipcc_tarwg2004htm (accessed October 2003)

(8) Smit B Pilifosova O Burton I Challenger BHuq S Klein RJT and Yohe G (2001) Adaptationto climate change in the context of sustainable devel-opment and equity in Climate Change 2001 ImpactsAdaptation and Vulnerability (ed) JJ McCarthyOF Canziani NA Leary DJ Dokken and KS Whitecontribution of Working Group II to the Third Assess-ment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange Cambridge University Press p 877ndash912 alsoavailable on-line at httpwwwgridanoclimateipcc_tarwg2641htm (accessed October 2003)

(9) Willows R and Connell R (2003) Climate adap-tation risk uncertainty and decision-making United Kingdom Climate Impacts ProgrammeTechnical Report May 2003 available on-line athttpwwwukciporgukrisk_uncertrisk_uncerthtml(accessed October 2003)

(10) Rosenzweig C Iglesias A and Baethgen W (2002)Evaluating climate impacts adaptation and vulnera-bility in agriculture in Proceedings of Climate ChangeVulnerability and Adaptation Assessment MethodsTraining Course Trieste Italy June 3ndash14 2002

(11) Warrick RA (2002) The CCTRAINPICCAP trainingcourse on climate change vulnerability and adaptationassessmentmdashthe Pacific island version in Proceedingsof Climate Change Vulnerability and AdaptationAssessment Methods Training Course Trieste ItalyJune 3ndash14 2002

(12) Ahmad QK and Warrick RA (2001) Methods andtools in Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptationand Vulnerability (ed) JJ McCarthy OF CanzianiNA Leary DJ Dokken and KS White contributionof Working Group II to the Third Assessment Reportof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeCambridge University Press p 105ndash44 also availableon-line at httpwwwgridanoclimateipcc_tarwg2068htm (accessed October 2003)

(13) Kelly PM and Adger WN (2000) Theory and prac-tice in assessing vulnerability to climate change andfacilitating adaptation Climatic Change v 47 no 4p 325ndash52

(14) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001)Annex B glossary of terms available on-line athttpwwwipccchpubsyrglosspdf (accessedOctober 2003)

(15) Jones R (2000) Managing uncertainty in climatechange projectionsmdashissues for impact assessment aneditorial comment Climatic Change v 45 no 3ndash4p 403ndash19

(16) Pielke RA Sr (2002) Overlooked issues in the USnational climate and IPCC assessments ClimaticChange v 52 no 1ndash2 p 1ndash11

(17) Carter TR La Rovere EL Jones RN LeemansR Mearns LO Nakicenovic N Pittock ABSemenov SM and Skea J (2001) Developing andapplying scenarios in Climate Change 2001 ImpactsAdaptation and Vulnerability (ed) JJ McCarthyOF Canziani NA Leary DJ Dokken and KS Whitecontribution of Working Group II to the Third Assess-ment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange Cambridge University Press Cambridge UnitedKingdom and New York New York p 145ndash90 alsoavailable on-line at httpwwwgridanoclimateipcc_tarwg2122htm (accessed October 2003)

(18) Yohe G and Schlesinger M (2002) The economicgeography of the impacts of climate change Journalof Economic Geography v 2 no 3 p 311ndash41


(19) Klein RJT (2001) Vulnerability to climate changefrom the stakeholderrsquos perspective paper presentedat First Sustainability Days Potsdam GermanySeptember 28 to October 5 2001 available on-lineat httpwwwpik-potsdamde~dagmarklein_filesframehtm (accessed October 2003)

(20) OrsquoConnor RE Anderson PJ Fisher A and Bord RJ (2000) Stakeholder involvement in climate assessment bridging the gap between scientific research and the public Climate Research v 14 p 255ndash60

(21) Yohe G and Tol RSJ (2002) Indicators for socialand economic coping capacitymdashmoving toward aworking definition of adaptive capacity GlobalEnvironmental ChangemdashHuman and PolicyDimensions v 12 p 25ndash40

(22) Klein RJT and Maciver DC (1999) Adaptation toclimate variability and change methodological issuesMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for GlobalChange v 4 no 3ndash4 p 189ndash98

(23) Parson EA Correll RW Barron EJ Burkett VJanetos A Joyce L Karl TR Maccracken MCMelillo J Morgan MG Schimel DS andWilbanks T (2003) Understanding climatic impactsvulnerabilities and adaptation in the United Statesbuilding a capacity for assessment Climatic Changev 57 p 9ndash42

(24) Beauchemin G (2002) Lessons learnedmdashimprovingdisaster management in Proceedings from ICLRrsquosHigh Impact Weather Conference Ottawa OntarioApril 11 2002 Institute for Catastrophic LossReduction University of Western Ontario LondonOntario p 14ndash18

(25) Pittock AB and Jones RN (2000) Adaptation to what and why Environmental Monitoring andAssessment v 61 p 9ndash35

(26) Furgal CM Gosselin P and Martin D (2002)Climate change and health in Nunavik andLabrador what we know from science and Inuitknowledge report prepared for the Climate ChangeAction Fund Natural Resources Canada 139 p

(27) Riedlinger D (2001) Responding to climate changein northern communities impacts and adaptationsArctic v 4 no 1 p 96ndash8

(28) de Loumle R Kreutzwiser R and Moraru L (2001)Adaptation options for the near term climatechange and the Canadian water sector GlobalEnvironmental Change v 11 p 231ndash45

(29) Adger WN and Kelly PM (1999) Social vulnera-bility to climate change and the architecture ofentitlements Mitigation and Adaptation Strategiesfor Global Change vol 4 no 3ndash4 p 253ndash66

(30) Smit B Burton I Klein RJT and Street R (1999)The science of adaptation a framework for assess-ment Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for GlobalChange v 4 p 199ndash213

(31) Smit B and Skinner MW (2002) Adaptation optionsin agriculture to climate change a typology Mitigationand Adaptation Strategies for Global Change v 7 p 85ndash114

(32) Federation of Canadian Municipalities (2001) Finalreport on Federation of Canadian Municipalitiesmunicipal infrastructure risk project adapting toclimate change report prepared for the ClimateChange Action Fund Natural Resources Canada

(33) Parry M and Carter T (1998) Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment A Guide to the IPCCApproach Earthscan Publications Ltd LondonUnited Kingdom 166 p

(34) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change TaskGroup on Scenarios for Climate Impact Assessment(2003) General guidelines on the use of scenariodata for climate impact and adaptation assessmentversion 2 prepared by TR Carter IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change Task Group on Scenariosfor Climate Impact Assessment 63 p

(35) Mearns LO Hulme M Carter TR Leemans RLal M and Whetton P (2001) Climate scenariodevelopment in Climate Change 2001 The ScientificBasis (ed) JT Houghton Y Ding DJ Griggs M Noguer PJ van der Linden X Dai K Maskelland CA Johnson contribution of Working Group I tothe Third Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change Cambridge University Pressp 739ndash68 also available on-line at httpwwwgridanoclimateipcc_tarwg1474htm (accessedOctober 2003)

(36) Cohen S and Kulkarni T (2001) Water manage-ment and climate change in the Okanagan basinreport prepared for the Climate Change ActionFund Natural Resources Canada 43 p

(37) Henderson NS Hogg E Barrow EM and Dolter B(2002) Climate change impacts on the island forestsof the Great Plains and the implications for natureconservation policy the outlook for Sweet Grass Hills(Montana) Cypress Hills (Alberta-Saskatchewan)Moose Mountain (Saskatchewan) Spruce Woods(Manitoba) and Turtle Mountain (ManitobandashNorthDakota) Prairie Adaptation Research CollaborativeUniversity of Regina Regina Saskatchewan 116 p

(38) Universiteacute du Queacutebec agrave Montreacuteal (2003) CanadianRegional Climate Model available on-line at httpwwwmrccuqamcaE_vframesintrohtml(accessed October 2003)

(39) Canadian Institute for Climate Studies (2002)Frequently asked questionsmdashdownscaling backgroundavailable on-line at httpwwwcicsuviccascenariosindexcgiMore_Info-Downscaling_Background(accessed October 2003)

(40) Laprise R Caya D Giguegravere M Bergeron GCocircteacute H Blanchet J-P Boer GJ and McFarlaneNA (1998) Climate and climate change in westernCanada as simulated by the Canadian RegionalClimate Model Atmosphere-Ocean v 36 no 2 p 119ndash67


(41) Ouranos Consortium (2003) Mission of Ouranosavailable on-line at httpwwwouranoscaintromiss_ehtml (accessed October 2003)

(42) Stocks BJ (2000) Climate change implications forforest fire management in Canada Natural ResourcesCanada Report DE0057

(43) Smith JB and Hulme M (1998) Climate changescenarios in United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP) Handbook on Methods for Climate ChangeImpact Assessment and Adaptation Studies Version20 (ed) I Burton JF Feenstra JB Smith andRSJ Tol United Nations Environment Programmeand Institute for Environmental Studies VrijeUniversiteit Amsterdam p 3-1ndash3-40

(44) Houghton JT Ding Y Griggs DJ Noguer Mvan der Linden PJ Dai X Maskell K andJohnson CA (2001) Climate Change 2001 TheScientific Basis contribution of Working Group I tothe Third Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change Cambridge UniversityPress 881 p also available on-line at httpwwwgridanoclimateipcc_tarwg1indexhtm (accessedOctober 2003)

(45) Nakicenovic N Alcamo J Davis G de Vries BFenhann J Gaffin S Gregory K Gruumlbler AJung TY Kram T La Rovere EL Michaelis LMori S Morita T Pepper W Pitcher H Price LRaihi K Roehrl A Rogner H-H Sankovski ASchlesinger M Shukla P Smith S Swart R van Rooijen S Victor N and Dadi Z (2000)Emissions Scenarios special report of WorkingGroup III of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange Cambridge University Press 599 p

(46) Abler D Shortle J Rose A and Oladosu G (2000)Characterizing regional economic impacts andresponses to climate change Global and PlanetaryChange v 25 no 1ndash2 p 67ndash81

(47) Burton I Bein P Chiotti Q Demeritt D DoreM and Rothman D (2000) Costing climate changein Canada impacts and adaptation AdaptationLiaison Office Natural Resources Canada Ottawa

(48) DeCanio SJ Howarth RB Sanstad AHSchneider SH and Thompson SL (2000) Newdirections in the economics and integrated assessmentof global climate change report prepared for thePew Center on Global Climate Change available on-line at httpwwwpewclimateorgglobal-warming-in-depthall_reportsnew_directionsindexcfm(accessed October 2003)

(49) Adams R McCarl B Segerson K Rosenzweig CBryant K Dixon B Conner R Evenson R andOjima D (1999) Economic effects of climate changeon United States agriculture in The Impact ofClimate Change on the United States Economy (ed) R Mendelsohn and J Neumann CambridgeUniversity Press

(50) Mendelsohn R Morrison W Schlesinger M andAndronova N (2000) Country-specific marketimpacts of climate change Climatic Change v 45p 553ndash69

(51) Sohngen B and Mendelsohn R (1999) The impactsof climate change on the United States timber marketin The Impact of Climate Change on the Unites StatesEconomy (ed) R Mendelsohn and J NeumannCambridge University Press

(52) Yohe G Neumann J and Marshall P (1999) Theeconomic damage induced by sea level rise in theUnited States in The Impact of Climate Change onthe United States Economy (ed) R Mendelsohnand J Neumann Cambridge University Press

(53) Hurd B Callaway M Smith J and Kirshen P(1999) Economic effects of climate change onUnited States water resources in The Impact ofClimate Change on the United States Economy (ed) R Mendelsohn and J Neumann CambridgeUniversity Press

(54) Dore M and Burton I (2000) The costs of adapta-tion to climate change a critical literature reviewreport prepared for the Climate Change ActionFund Natural Resources Canada

(55) Leary NA (1999) A framework for benefit-costanalysis of adaptation to climate change and climatevariability Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies forGlobal Change v 4 no 3ndash4 p 307ndash18

(56) Dore M (2003) Forecasting the conditional proba-bilities of natural disasters in Canada as a guide fordisaster preparedness Natural Hazards v 28 no 2ndash3p 249ndash69

(57) McCulloch MM Forbes DL and Shaw RW(2002) Coastal impacts of climate change andsea-level rise on Prince Edward Island GeologicalSurvey of Canada Open File 4261 62 p and 11 supporting documents

(58) Rosenzweig C and Hillel D (1998) Climate Changeand the Global Harvest Potential Impacts of theGreenhouse Effect on Agriculture Oxford UniversityPress New York New York 352 p

(59) Hulme M Barrow E Arnell N Harrison PJohns T and Downing T (1999) Relative impacts ofhuman-induced climate change and natural climatevariability Nature v 397 no 25 p 688ndash91

(60) Tol RS and Fankhauser S (1998) On the repre-sentation of impact in integrated assessment modelsof climate change Environmental Modeling andAssessment v 3 p 63ndash74

(61) Tol RS Fankhauser S and Smith J (1998) The scope for adaptation to climate change whatcan we learn from the impact literature GlobalEnvironmental Change v 8 no 2 p 109ndash23

(62) National Round Table on the Environment and theEconomy (2003) Environment and sustainabledevelopment indicators for Canada available on-line at httpwwwnrtee-trneecaengprogramsCurrent_ProgramsSDIndicatorsESDI-ReportESDI-Report_IntroPage_Ehtm (accessed October 2003)


(63) Environment Canada (2002) Putting an economicvalue on wetlandsmdashconcepts methods and consider-ations available on-line at httpwwwonecgccawildlifefactsheetsfs_wetlands-ehtml (accessedOctober 2003)

(64) Natural Resources Canada (2003) Is a loon worth onebuck available on-line at httpwwwnrcangccacfs-scfscienceprodservstory06_ehtml (accessedOctober 2003)

(65) McCarthy JJ Canziani OF Leary NA Dokken DJand White KS editors (2001) Climate Change 2001Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability CambridgeUniversity Press

(66) Fankhauser S and Tol RSJ (1996) Climate changecosts recent advancements in the economic assess-ment Energy Policy v 24 no 7 p 665ndash73

(67) Callaway J Naess L and Ringius L (1998)Adaptation costs a framework and methodsChapter 5 in Mitigation and Adaptation CostAssessment Concepts Methods and AppropriateUse United Nations Environmental Programme(UNEP) Collaborating Centre on Energy andEnvironment Roskilde Denmark

(68) Tol RS (2002) Estimates of the damage costs of climate change part I benchmark estimatesEnvironmental and Resource Economics v 21 p 47ndash73

(69) Tol RS (2002) Estimates of the damage costs of climate change part II dynamic estimatesEnvironmental and Resource Economics v 21 p 135ndash60

(70) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeSecretariat (2003) Draft report of the twentieth session of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) Paris February 19ndash21 2003 availableon-line at httpwwwipccchmeetdrepipcc20pdf(accessed October 2003)

(71) Fallow B (2003) Time to focus beyond Kyoto New Zealand Herald May 15 2003 available on-line at httpwwwnzheraldconzstorydisplaycfmreportID=57030 (accessed October 2003)

Water Resources

Canada has a relative abundance of water possessing9 of the worldrsquos renewable freshwater yet only05 of the global population(2) However the wateris not evenly distributed across the country andwater availability varies both between years and withthe changing seasons As a result most regions ofthe country have experienced water-related problemssuch as shortages (droughts) excesses (floods) andassociated water quality issues For example thedrought of 2001 affected Canada from coast to coast(Table 1) with significant economic and socialimpacts In the 1990s severe flooding in theSaguenay region of Quebec (1996) and ManitobarsquosRed River valley (1997) were two of the costliestnatural disasters in Canadian history

In its Third Assessment Report the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change projects an increase inglobally averaged surface air temperatures of14ndash58degC by 2100 Changes of this magnitudewould significantly impact water resources inCanada(4) Climatic variables such as temperatureand precipitation greatly influence the hydrologicalcycle and changes in these variables will affectrunoff and evaporation patterns as well as theamount of water stored in glaciers snowpackslakes wetlands soil moisture and groundwaterHowever there remains uncertainty as to the mag-nitude and in some cases the direction of thesechanges This is related to the difficulty that climatemodels have in projecting future changes in regionalprecipitation patterns and extreme events and toour incomplete understanding of hydroclimaticprocesses

Understanding the vulnerability of Canadarsquos water resources to

climate change is vitally important Water is one of Canadarsquos

greatest resources We depend on the availability of a clean

abundant water supply for domestic use food energy and industrial

production transportation and recreation and the maintenance of

natural ecosystems It is estimated that waterrsquos measurable contribution

to the Canadian economy reaches $75 to 23 billion per year(1)

WAT E R R E S O U R C E S 35

TABLE 1 The 2001 drought across Canada(3)

Region Conditions in 2001

British Columbia bull Driest winter on record with precip-itation half of historic average across coast and southern interior

bull Snowpacks in southern regions were at or below historic low

Prairies bull Saskatoon was 30 drier than 110-year record

bull Many areas experienced lowest precipitation in historic record

bull Parts of the Palliser Triangle experienced second or third consecutive drought

Great Lakesndash bull Driest summer in 54 yearsSt Lawrence bull Southern Ontario (Windsorndashbasin Kitchener) experienced the driest

8 weeks on recordbull Montreacuteal experienced driest April

on record and set summer record with 35 consecutive days without measurable precipitation

Atlantic bull Third driest summer on recordbull Large regions experienced only

25 of normal rainfall in July andAugust was the driest on record

bull July with 5 mm of rain was the driest month ever recorded inCharlottetown


In addition to the expected shifts in hydrologicalparameters potential changes in the economicdemographic and environmental factors that influ-ence water resources must also be considered The response of water users as well as water management mechanisms to climate change will greatly influence the vulnerability of waterresources Both the ability and the willingness of society to undertake appropriate adaptive measures are critically important

The impacts of climate change on water resourceswill vary across the country due to regional differ-ences in climate changes hydrological characteristicswater demand and management practices Some ofthe major potential impacts are listed in Table 2

From this table it is evident that the potentialimpacts of extreme events seasonal shifts in flowregimes and reduced winter ice cover are keyissues for several regions of Canada

TABLE 2 Potential impacts of climate change on water resources (derived from Figure 15-1 in reference 4)

Region Potential changes Associated concerns

Yukon and coastal bull Increased spring flood risks (BC) impacts on river bull Reduced hydroelectric potential ecologicalBritish Columbia flows caused by glacier retreat and disappearance impacts (including fisheries) damage to

infrastructure water apportionment

Rocky Mountains bull Rise in winter snowline in winter-spring bull Increased risk of flooding and avalanchespossible increase in snowfall more frequent rain-on-snow events

bull Decrease in summer streamflow and other changes bull Ecological impacts impacts on tourism in seasonal streamflow and recreation

Prairies bull Changes in annual streamflow possible large bull Implications for agriculture hydroelectric gen-declines in summer streamflow eration ecosystems and water apportionment

bull Increased likelihood of severe drought bull Losses in agricultural production changes inincreasing aridity in semiarid zones land use

bull Increases or decreases in irrigation demand and bull Uncertain impacts on farm sector incomeswater availability groundwater streamflow and water quality

Great Lakes basin bull Possible precipitation increases coupled with bull Impacts on hydroelectric generation shorelineincreased evaporation leading to reduced runoff infrastructure shipping and recreationand declines in lake levels

bull Decreased lake-ice extent including some years bull Ecological impacts increased water loss without ice cover through evaporation and impacts on navigation

Atlantic bull Decreased amount and duration of snow cover bull Smaller spring floods lower summer flows

bull Changes in the magnitude and timing of ice bull Implications for spring flooding and freeze-up and break-up coastal erosion

bull Possible large reductions in streamflow bull Ecological impacts water apportionment issues hydroelectric potential

bull Saline intrusion into coastal aquifers bull Loss of potable water and increased water conflicts

Arctic and bull Thinner ice cover 1- to 3-month increase in bull Ecological impacts impacts on traditional Subarctic ice-free season increased extent of open water ways of life improved navigation changes

in viable road networks

bull Increased variability in lake levels complete drying bull Impacts on ecosystems and communitiesof some delta lakes

This chapter examines current research on these andother issues as well as recent progress in adaptationresearch Focus is placed on the impacts on watersupplies and demand and on options to adapt tothese impacts Many other aspects of water resourcesrelated to transportation health and fisheries areaddressed in other chapters of this report While significant uncertainty remains in projecting futureimpacts it does not limit our ability to take action to reduce our vulnerability to climate change Byunderstanding the range of possible impacts as wellas the intricate role of societal response to changingconditions we will be better prepared to reduce losses and capitalize on potential benefits

Previous Work

ldquoThe sensitivity of a water resource system to climate

change is a function of several physical features and

importantly societal characteristicsrdquo (5)

Numerous reports and workshops involvingresearchers and stakeholders have identified waterresources as one of the highest priority issues withrespect to climate change impacts and adaptationin Canada This reflects both the climatic sensitivityof the resource and the crosscutting nature of waterissues where adaptation decisions in one sectorwill have significant consequences in several othersectors Figure 1 illustrates some of these issues as they relate to decreasing water levels in theGreat LakesndashSt Lawrence basin and the impactson sectors such as transportation fisheries agriculture and human health







lake front


(eg spawningareas)

contamination






irrigation and farm

operations


water contamination


SAMPLE ISSUE

SECTORS IMPACTED




OVERALL RESULT




In their summary of research as part of the CanadaCountry Study Hofmann et al(6) stated that climatechange will have a range of impacts on both thehydrological cycle and water uses For the nation as a whole climate change will likely increase precipitation evaporation water temperatures andhydrological variability These changes will com-bine to negatively impact water quality Regionalprojections include declining Great Lakes water levels decreasing soil moisture in southern Canadaand a reduction of wetlands in the Prairies Anotherkey concern is increased conflict between waterusers due to increasing mismatches between supplyand demand

Previous literature suggests infrastructure modifi-cation management adjustment and development of new water policies as methods of adaptation in the water resources sector(6) Uncertainties inimpact projections have led many authors to advo-cate the implementation of lsquono regretsrsquo adaptationoptions These measures would benefit Canadiansirrespective of climate change as they addressother environmental issues The engagement ofstakeholders including the general public is criti-cal to the development of effective adaptationstrategies Perhaps most importantly the literaturenotes that water managers must be encouraged toaddress climate change impacts in their long-termplanning activities

Much of the research on water resources and climatechange has concentrated on the physical aspects ofthe issue particularly hydrological impacts(7) andless so on the economic and social aspects Thisimbalance and the resulting knowledge gaps havebeen recognized in the literature and in the reportsand proceedings of numerous workshops and similarforums that have addressed climate change impactsand adaptation in Canada

Impacts on Water Supply

Quantity of Freshwater

As flow patterns and water levels respond to the

changing climate our water supplies will be

affected Diminishing surface-water and ground-

water supplies coupled with increasing demands

for these resources would challenge all aspects of

water resource management

It is difficult to predict future changes in the avail-ability of freshwater While there is confidence thatwarmer temperatures will affect variables such asevaporation and snow cover uncertainties concern-ing the nature of regional changes in precipitationpatterns as well as the complexity of natural ecosystems limit our ability to project hydrologicalchanges at the watershed scale However it is reasonable to generalize that for many regions of Canada climate change will likely result indecreased summer flows warmer summer water temperatures and higher winter flows This is particularly true for the snowmelt-dominated systems that are found across most of the country(4)

Some of the most vulnerable regions of Canadawith respect to the impact of climate change onwater resources are those that are already understress with demand approaching or exceeding supply This is most apparent in the driest regionsof the southern Prairies commonly referred to asthe Palliser Triangle where drought and severeannual soil moisture deficits are recurrent prob-lems(8) Even Ontario perceived to be an especiallywater-rich province suffers from frequent fresh-water shortages(9) and more than 17 of BritishColumbiarsquos surface-water resources are at or neartheir supply capacity for extractive uses(10)

For much of western Canada snowmelt and glacierrunoff from mountainous areas are primary sourcesof water supply for downstream regions Withwarmer conditions the seasonal and long-term storage capacity of alpine areas may decrease due tothinner snowpacks more rapid spring runoff anddecreased snow and ice coverage(11) This in turnwould result in lower summer river flows and


therefore greater water shortages during the periodof peak demand Recent trends observed on the east-ern slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains suggestthat the impacts of diminishing glacier cover ondownstream flows are already being felt (see Box 1)Across southern Canada annual mean streamflowhas decreased significantly over the last 30ndash50 yearswith the greatest decrease observed during Augustand September(12) Continued decreases are projectedto occur as a result of climate change

The Great Lakes basin is another region wherethere are significant concerns over the impact ofclimate change on water resources More than 40 million people live within the basin most ofwhom depend on the lakes for their water supply(14)

Many studies have suggested that climate changewill result in lower water levels for the Great Lakeswith consequences for municipal water suppliesnavigation hydroelectric power generation recre-ation and natural ecosystems

Although summer stream flows are generallyexpected to decline many researchers project a corresponding increase in winter flows This isbecause warmer winters would increase the fre-quency of mid-winter thaws and rain-on-snowevents a trend that is already evident on the upperSaint John River(15) This in turn would increasethe risk of winter flooding in many regions as aresult of high flows and severe ice jams(16) Forexample on the Grand River of southern Ontarioresearchers project that warmer temperatures andincreased precipitation will extend the risk ofsevere flooding to the months of January andFebruary(17) However since snow accumulationwill likely be reduced by frequent small meltevents throughout the winter the magnitude ofspring flooding will likely decline Similar patternsare anticipated for snowmelt-dominated riversacross much of southern Canada

Climate change affects not only the quantity of surface water but also that of groundwater Everyregion of Canada is reliant to some degree ongroundwater For example the entire population of Prince Edward Island relies on groundwater forpotable water while approximately 90 of the ruralpopulation in Ontario Manitoba and Saskatchewandepend on groundwater resources(18 19) Despitegroundwaterrsquos importance recharge rates forgroundwater across the country are virtuallyunknown groundwater dynamics are poorly understood(20) and research on the impacts of climate change remains limited(6)

The depth and nature of groundwater affects its sensitivity to climate change In general shallowunconfined aquifers will be impacted most signif-icantly This is clearly demonstrated by historic variability in which shallow wells in many parts of Canada run dry during drought periods In manyregions unfortunately these shallow aquifers also

BOX 1 Diminishing flows in Prairie rivers(13)

Glacial meltwater is a key source of water for rivers in western and northern Canada Along the easternslopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains glaciercover has decreased rapidly in recent years and totalcover is now approaching the lowest experienced inthe past 10 000 years As the glacial cover hasdecreased so have the downstream flow volumes

This finding appears to contradict projections of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change thatwarmer temperatures will cause glacial contributionsto downstream flow regimes to increase in the shortterm However historical stream flow data indicatethat this increased flow phase has already passedand that the basins have entered a potentially long-term trend of declining flows The continuation ofthis trend would exacerbate water shortages that arealready apparent across many areas of Alberta andSaskatchewan owing to drought

Photo courtesy of Mike Demuth

Peyto Glacier


contain the highest quality groundwater and are acritical source of potable water and water for live-stock Although deeper aquifers are less sensitive to the direct impacts of climate change the failure ofshallow aquifers could encourage their exploitationThese deep aquifers can take decades to recoverfrom pumping due to slow recharge rates(20)

Local factors such as the permeability of the material (eg soil rock) above the aquifer and the timing of precipitation strongly affect the rateof groundwater recharge and therefore sensitivity to climate change(18) An increase in winter pre-cipitation is expected to benefit groundwater levelsmore than an increase in summer precipitationThis is because snowmelt tends to rechargegroundwater whereas summer precipitation is primarily lost through evapotranspiration(20)

Quality of Freshwater

Water quality would suffer from the projected

impacts of climate change Poor water quality

effectively diminishes the availability of potable

water and increases the costs associated with

rendering water suitable for use

Changes in water quantity and water quality areinextricably linked Lower water levels tend to lead to higher pollutant concentrations whereas high flow events and flooding increase turbidity and theflushing of contaminants into the water system Box 2 lists some of the main water quality concernsfacing different regions of the country

Warmer air temperatures would result in increased surface-water temperatures decreased duration of ice cover and in some cases lower water levelsThese changes may contribute to decreased concen-trations of dissolved oxygen higher concentrations of nutrients such as phosphorus and summer tasteand odour problems (eg references 22 23)

River flows are expected to become more variable in the future with more flash floods and lower minimum flows Both types of hydrological extremehave been shown to negatively affect water quality

During low flow events increased concentrations oftoxins bacterial contaminants and nuisance algae are common For example when flow dropped in the St Lawrence and Ottawa rivers noxious odoursbecame a problem due to an increase in a particulartype of phytoplankton(24) Heavy flow events havebeen shown to increase soil erosion and chemicalleaching whereas intense rainfalls increase the riskof runoff of urban and livestock wastes and nutrientsinto source water systems(25)

BOX 2 Main water quality concerns across Canada(21)

Region Water quality concern

Atlantic bull Saltwater intrusion in groundwater aquifers

bull Water-borne health effectsfrom increased flooding

Quebec bull Upstream shift in saltwaterboundary in the Gulf of St Lawrence

bull Water-borne health effectsfrom increased flooding andsewer overflow

Ontario bull Degradation of stream habitat bull Water-borne health effects bull Volatilization of toxic chemicals

Prairies bull Summer tasteodour problemsin municipal water supply

bull Stream habitat deterioration

British Columbia bull Saltwater intrusion due to risein sea level and increasedwater demands

bull Water-borne health effectsfrom increased floods

bull Increased water turbidity from increased landslides and surface erosion

Arctic and bull Rupture of drinking water the North and sewage lines from

permafrost degradationbull Rupture of sewage storage

tanks from permafrost degradation and seepagefrom sewage storage lagoons

bull Increased turbidity and sedi-ment loads in drinking water


Climate change may also affect the quality of ground-water For example reduced rates of groundwaterrecharge flow and discharge may increase the concentrations of contaminants in groundwaterSaltwater intrusion into groundwater aquifers incoastal regions is another concern althoughCanadian research on this topic is limited(26) In southern Manitoba future changes in precipitationand temperature may cause groundwater levels insome parts of the Red River basin to decline fasterthan others(27) These changes would affect the flow in the aquifer and possibly shift the saline-freshwater boundary beneath the Red River valleyso that the groundwater in some areas may nolonger be drinkable(27)

Ecological Impacts

ldquoWater is also a critical limiting factor in the existence

and distribution of our natural ecosystemsrdquo (6)

Wetlands important natural modifiers of water quality are highly sensitive to climate change(28)

As water flows through a wetland contaminantssuch as metals nutrients and sulphates are oftenfiltered out Lower water table levels howeverdecrease the assimilative and purification abilitiesof wetlands Drier conditions have also been asso-ciated with acid pulses (which can cause fish kills) and the formation of highly toxic methyl-mercury(29 30) In the Canadian Prairies wetlands(sloughs) are of tremendous hydrological importanceand provide vital habitat for birds and aquaticspecies The persistence of these wetlands dependson a complex interaction between climate geologyand land use patterns and their extent is controlledby the balance between water inputs and outputs(31)

The greatest impact of future climate change onPrairie wetland coverage would result from changesin winter snowfall whereas changes in evaporationwould have a smaller impact(31) Coastal wetlands ofthe Great Lakes are likely to suffer from decreasedlake water levels and from shifts in surface-waterand groundwater flow patterns(32)

River ecosystems are also an important componentof the Canadian landscape Their sensitivity to climate change is influenced by the characteristics

of the river and its location Northern rivers may beimpacted by permafrost degradation and changes inflood regimes(33) Ice-jam flooding is a key dynamicof the PeacendashAthabasca Delta in northern Albertaparticularly for rejuvenation of riverside ecosystemsA decrease in ice-jam flooding due to climate changewould significantly impact this ecologically sensitiveregion(34) In southern Canada seasonal shifts inflow regimes projected for rivers could have majorecological impacts including loss of habitat speciesextinction and increased water contaminationDrainage basins containing large lakes or glaciers are generally less sensitive to changes in climate at least in the short term as these features helpbuffer the impacts of climate change

Forests cover almost half of Canadarsquos landmass andare important regulators of the hydrological cycleChanges in forest extent and distribution due to cli-mate change or other factors impact the storage andflow of water An increase in forest disturbancessuch as fires and insect defoliation would also affectthe ability of the forest to store and filter water Theimpacts of climate change on forest ecosystems arecovered in greater detail in the forestry chapter

Water Demand

ldquoThe consequences of climate change for water

resources depend not only on possible changes in

the resource base (supply)hellipbut also on changes

in the demand both human and environmental

for that resourcerdquo (5)

Future water demand will be affected by many factors including population growth wealth anddistribution Globally it is estimated that betweenhalf a billion and almost two billion people arealready under high water stress and this number is expected to increase significantly by 2025 dueprimarily to population growth and increasingwealth(35) Warmer temperatures and drier condi-tions due to climate change would further increasefuture water demand in many regions


Where climate change is associated with increasedaridity it would directly affect water demand withrespect to agricultural and domestic uses For exam-ple outdoor domestic water uses (eg gardeningand lawn watering) and drinking-water demandtend to increase in warmer drier conditions Insome cases technological and management changesmay sufficiently increase water use efficiency toaddress the increased demand Managementchanges that work to reduce the demand for waterwill also be important Warming of surface waterswould have a direct impact on industrial operationsby decreasing the efficiency of cooling systemswhich could in turn reduce plant outputs(36)

Another major demand on water resources is hydroelectric power generation which fulfillsapproximately two-thirds of Canadarsquos electricityrequirements(2) Studies suggest that the potentialfor hydroelectric generation will likely rise in northern regions and decrease in the south due to projected changes in annual runoff volume(37)

For example lower water levels are expected tocause reductions in hydro generation in the GreatLakes basin(14) An increase in annual flows however will not always lead to increased hydroproduction Increases in storms floods and sedimentloading could all compromise energy generation In western Canada changes in precipitation andreduced glacier cover in the mountains will affectdownstream summer flows and associated hydro-electric operations(13) Moreover changes in the iceregimes of regulated rivers will likely present thehydro industry with both opportunities in terms of shorter ice seasons and challenges from more frequent midwinter break-ups(16)

The seasonality of the projected changes withrespect to both the availability of and demands forwater resources is another important factor Forexample during the summer months lower flow levels are projected to reduce hydroelectric genera-tion potential while more frequent and intense heatwaves are expected to increase air-conditioner usageand therefore electricity demand Demand for hydro-electric power exports is also likely to increase in thesummer due to increased summer cooling needs

Increased demand in any or all of these sectorswould increase the conflict between alternative wateruses including in-stream needs to retain ecosystemsustainability Improvements in water use efficiency

may be required to prevent the extinction of someaquatic species and the degradation of wetlandsrivers deltas and estuaries(38)

Adaptation in the Water Resources Sector

ldquoWater managers are beginning to consider

adapting to climate changehellip[however] the

extent of adaptation by many water managers

is uncertainrdquo (5)

Several studies indicate that managers are generally complacent toward the impacts of climatechange(36 39) In a survey of American waterresource stakeholder organizations no groups indicated the intention to conduct future workregarding climate change and all ranked the levelof attention given to climate change as low(40) Thismay be because managers generally believe thatthe tools currently used to deal with risk anduncertainty will be sufficient for dealing with anyincreased variability induced by climate change

BOX 3 Commonly recommended adaptation options(21)

The most frequently recommended adaptationoptions for the water resources sector include

bull Water conservation measures

bull Improved planning and preparedness fordroughts and severe floods

bull Improved water quality protection from culturalindustrial and human wastes

bull Enhanced monitoring efforts and

bull Improved procedures for equitable allocation of water

Each of these recommendations would be considereda lsquono-regretsrsquo option that would benefit Canadiansirrespective of climate change impacts


Another important factor could be the lack of standards for incorporating climate change intodesign decisions The reactive rather than proactivenature of water management may also play a role

There are however exceptions to these generaltrends For example water managers in the GrandRiver basin of southwestern Ontario have begun to develop contingency plans for future droughts(41)

and a series of workshops has been held to evaluatedecision analysis methods for dealing with shiftingLake Erie water levels under climate change(42)

These initiatives contradict the often-cited opinionthat climate change will have minimal influence onwater management operations until there is betterinformation regarding the timing and nature of theprojected changes Researchers point out that the scientific uncertainty associated with climate changeis not very different than the other sources of uncer-tainty that water managers are trained to considersuch as population growth and economic activity(43)

Therefore uncertainty should not preclude the inclusion of climate change as part of an integratedrisk management strategy

Structural Adaptations

In contemplating structural adaptations one should

consider whether the system will be capable of

dealing with the projected hydrological changes

as well as the economic social and ecological costs

of the adaptation

Physical infrastructure such as dams weirs anddrainage canals has traditionally served as one of the most important adaptations for water management in Canada There are conflicting opinions however on the potential of building new structures for climate change adaptationGiven the substantive environmental economicand social costs associated with these structuresmany experts advocate avoiding or postponing theconstruction of large-scale infrastructure until thereis greater certainty regarding the magnitude ofexpected hydrological changes On the other side

of the coin is the fact that water infrastructureimproves the flexibility of management operationsand increases a systemrsquos capacity to buffer theeffects of hydrological variability(5) In the PeaceRiver for example stream regulation will allowoperators to potentially offset the effects of climatechange on freeze-up dates by reducing winterreleases(44) Similarly communities in the southernPrairies can use small-scale water infrastructure toincrease water storage through snow managementand reduce regional vulnerability to drought(45)

Most existing water management plans as well as water-supply and -drainage systems are basedupon historic climatic and hydrological records and assume that the future will resemble the pastAlthough these systems should be sufficient to handle most changes in mean conditions associatedwith climate change over the next couple of decadesmanagement problems are likely to arise if there is an increase in climate variability and the occurrenceof extreme events Case studies in Ontario indicatethat increases in the intensity of precipitation eventshave the potential to increase future drainage infra-structure costs and decrease the level of serviceprovided by existing systems (Box 4)

BOX 4 How vulnerable is our infrastructure (46)

Since the majority of urban water drainage systems are designed based upon historical climate records a change in precipitation patternsmay cause these systems to fail More intense precipitation events are expected to decrease thelevel of service that existing drains sewers andculverts provide and increase future drainageinfrastructure costs While making the necessarychanges (eg increasing pipe sizes) would beexpensive the overall costs are expected to belower than the losses that would result from notadapting For example insufficient pipe sizeswould lead to an increase in sewer backups base-ment flooding and associated health problems


Several studies suggest that the design of water management systems should focus on thresholdssuch as the point at which the storage capacity of areservoir is exceeded rather than mean conditions(eg references 47 48) Thresholds can induce nonlinear and therefore less predictable responses to climatic change which would significantly stressthe adaptive capacity of water resource systems(43)

In many cases modification of existing infrastructureoperations rather than the introduction of newstructures will be an effective adaptation option(49)

For example models indicate that the Grand Riverbasin will be able to adapt to all but the most severeclimate change scenarios through modifications inoperating procedures and increases in reservoircapacity(50) A drainage infrastructure study of NorthVancouver suggests that the system can be adaptedto more intense rainfall events by gradually upgrad-ing key sections of pipe during routine scheduledinfrastructure maintenance(51) Adaptations such asthese can be incorporated into long-term water management planning

Institutional Adaptations and Considerations

ldquoThe ability to adapt to climate variability and

climate change is affected by a range of institutional

technological and cultural features at the interna-

tional national regional and local levels in

addition to specific dimensions of the change

being experiencedrdquo (5)

Demand management involves reducing waterdemands through water conservation initiatives and improved water use efficiency Demand man-agement is considered to be an effective andenvironmentally and economically sustainableadaptation option As a result programs based on water conservation and full water costing arebeing increasingly used in the municipal sector Inthe Grand River basin for example municipalitieshave begun to develop programs to make wateruse storage and distribution more efficient At the same time however many municipalities areunable to adopt demand management programs

due to insufficient legal or institutional provisions(41)

The lack of public awareness of the need for waterconservation and avoidance of wasteful practices isalso an obstacle Some other factors that affect a communityrsquos ability to adapt are outlined in Box 5Community water conservation initiatives can be

extremely successful at reducing water demands andminimizing the impacts of climate change on regionalwater supplies(53) In a study of 65 Canadian munici-palities 63 were found to have already undertakenwater conservation initiatives(54) Similarly most

BOX 5 What affects a communityrsquos capacity to adapt (52)

In a study of the Upper Credit River watershed insouthern Ontario the following were identified asimportant factors in determining a communityrsquoscapacity to adapt to climate change

bull stakeholdersrsquo perceptions and awareness ofthe issues involved

bull level and quality of communication and coordination between stakeholders and water managers

bull level of public involvement in water-management decision making and adaptation implementation

bull quality and accessibility of resources (eg sufficient financial resources adequatelytrained staff and access to high-quality data)and

bull socio-economic composition (more affluentcommunities can dedicate more money toadaptation)

Some of these factors could be enhanced throughsuch mechanisms as public information sessionsand increased networking whereas others suchas socio-economic structure can be significantbarriers to adaptation


rural property owners surveyed in Ontario had practiced some form of water conservation such asshortening shower times and reducing water wastein homes(9) Factors that influenced the adoption ofconservation methods included program awarenessand participation level of formal education andanticipation of future water shortages A successfulcommunity approach to water management prob-lems was documented for North Pender IslandBritish Columbia(55) Water management on theisland is the responsibility of five elected trusteeswho oversee the water use act which specifies vol-ume allocations per household and the acceptableand unacceptable uses of the communityrsquos watersupply Failure to comply with the water act resultsfirst in warnings then potential disconnection fromthe townrsquos water supply

The institutional capacity of the community or system is key in implementing effective adaptationIn Canada introducing adaptation measures can be challenging simply due to the fact that many different levels of government administer watermanagement activities Even within one level ofgovernment several separate agencies are ofteninvolved in water legislation(46) Clear definition of the roles and responsibilities of each agencyinvolved is an important first step in building adaptive capacity(52) as is the development ofmechanisms to foster interagency collaboration(eg the Canadian Framework for Collaboration on Groundwater) Another key requirement is thewillingness of the water management agencies toprovide appropriate assistance to communities insupport of adaptation implementation(52) The com-munityrsquos perceptions of the different adaptationoptions are also important (Box 6)

Although institutional changes represent an importantadaptation option in water resource management itmust be recognized that some current legislation mayalso present barriers to future adaptation For examplethe Niagara River Treaty may restrict the ability ofpower utilities to adapt to low flow conditions as thetreaty apportions water for hydroelectric power gener-ation and the preservation of Niagara Falls scenery(43)

Another example is the Boundary Waters Treaty of1909 which determines the priority of interests in theGreat Lakes (eg domestic and sanitary purposesfirst then navigation and then power and irrigation)

and does not recognize environmental recreational or riparian property interests(43) However the GreatLakes Water Quality Agreement signed in 1978 doesstrive to protect physical chemical and biologicalintegrity in the Great Lakes basin(14)

Economics pricing and markets are fundamentalmechanisms for balancing supply and demand In thefuture water demands may be increasingly controlledthrough pricing mechanisms as has been seen in theGrand River basin over recent years(57) Althoughincreasing the cost of water would act as an incentiveto limit use there are still many issues that need tobe addressed including an improved understandingof the environmental justice and equity consequencesof water pricing(39)

BOX 6 Perceptions of adaptation options(56)

Focus group interviews in the Okanagan Valleyrevealed that structural changes (eg dams) andsocial measures (eg buying out water licences)were adaptation options preferred by these smallgroups to address water shortages in that regionStructural adaptations designed to intervene and prevent the impacts of climate change such asdams and snow making were especially favouredThe focus groups were also able to identify the implications of different adaptation choices (eg the high economic and environmental costs of dams) Overall the interview process revealed a strong stakeholder interest in climate changeadaptation and the need for continuing dialogue

Photo courtesy of Wendy Avis


Diminishing water supplies are expected to increasecompetition and conflict over water and increase its value(41) Resolving these issues may sometimesinvolve changing current policies and legislationAt present most water laws do not take climatechange into account and would therefore be chal-lenged by the projected impacts on water resourcesFor example transboundary water agreements mayrequire updating and careful consideration must be given to potential changes in flow regimes andlevels(58) Water transfers which are becomingincreasingly important mechanisms for water man-agement in some parts of the world often generatenew problems of their own For example the transferof water between two parties often impacts a thirduninvolved party such as a downstream water userPolicy mechanisms capable of taking these third parties into account are necessary

Within the Great Lakes basin significant supply-demand mismatches and water apportionmentissues are expected under most climate change scenarios(59) Although the traditional cooperationbetween legal groups involved in such conflicts has been impressive there is no fully consistentapproach to water law and policy and the historicsuccess would likely to be challenged by the impactsof climate change(60) International laws must alsoevolve to avoid future conflict as few of them allowfor the possible impacts of climate change

Knowledge Gaps and Research Needs

Although progress has been made over the past five years many of the research needs identifiedwithin the Canada Country Study with respect to the potential impacts of climate change on waterresources remain valid For example continuedimprovements are required in the understanding andmodelling of hydrological processes at local to globalscales such as the role of the El NintildeondashSouthernOscillation (ENSO) in controlling hydrological vari-ability From a regional perspective studies based

in the Atlantic Provinces eastern Arctic and high-elevation mountainous regions are still lacking Thesame applies to studies of groundwater resourcesacross most of the country as emphasized in arecent synthesis for the Canadian Prairies(20)

A primary goal of impacts and adaptation research is to reduce vulnerability to climate change and as such there is a need for studies that focus onthe regions and systems considered to be most vulnerable In Canada this includes areas presentlyunder water stress such as the Prairies the interiorof British Columbia the Great LakesndashSt Lawrencebasin and parts of Atlantic Canada as well asregions where climate change impacts on waterresources may have large ramifications for existingor planned activities In some cases studies mayhave to initially address fundamental knowledgegaps with respect to either processes or data (eg the paucity of data on groundwater use in most areas) before meaningful analyses of adaptation options can be undertaken

Needs identified within the recent literature cited inthis chapter include the following

Impacts

1) Research on the interactive effects between climate change impacts and other stresses such as land use change and population growth

2) Improved understanding of the economic andsocial impacts of climate change with respect to water resources

3) Improved access to and monitoring of socio-economic and hydrological data

4) More integrative studies which look at the ecological controls and human influence on the vulnerability of water to climate change

5) Studies that focus on understanding and defining critical thresholds in water resource systems rather than on the impacts of changes in mean conditions


6) Research on the vulnerability of groundwater to climate change and improved groundwatermonitoring

7) Research on the impacts of climate change onwater uses such as navigation recreationtourism drinking-water supplies hydroelectricpower generation and industry as well as on ecological integrity

8) Studies that address the impacts of climate change on water quality

Adaptation

1) Integrative studies of water resources planningwhich address the role and influence of watermanagers on adaptive capacity

2) Understanding of the current capacity of watermanagement structures and institutions to dealwith projected climate change and the social economic and environmental costs and benefits of future adaptations

3) With respect to adaptation via water pricing andpolicylegislation better understanding of theenvironmental justice and equity consequencesand mechanisms to assess the impacts of watertransfers on third parties

Conclusion

Future changes in climate of the magnitude projectedby most global climate models would impact ourwater resources and subsequently affect food supplyhealth industry transportation and ecosystem sustainability Problems are most likely to arisewhere the resource is already under stress becausethat stress would be exacerbated by changes in supply or demand associated with climate changeParticular emphasis needs to be placed on theimpacts of extreme events (drought and flooding)which are projected to become more frequent and of greater magnitude in many parts of the countryThese extreme events would place stress on existinginfrastructure and institutions with potentially majoreconomic social and environmental consequences

A relatively high degree of uncertainty will likelyalways exist regarding projections of climate andhydrological change at the local management scaleFocus must therefore be placed on climate change in the context of risk management and vulnerabilityassessment The complex interactions between thenumerous factors that influence water supply anddemand as well as the many activities dependentupon water resources highlight the need for inte-grative studies that look at both the environmentaland human controls on water Involvement of physical and social scientists water managers andother stakeholders is critical to the development ofappropriate and sustainable adaptation strategies


References

Citations in bold denote reports of research supported bythe Government of Canadarsquos Climate Change Action Fund

(1) Environment Canada (1992) Water conservation ndashevery drop counts Supply and Services CanadaFreshwater Series A-6

(2) Environment Canada (2001) Water available on-lineat httpwwwecgccawater (accessed April 2002)

(3) Environment Canada (2002) Dave Philliprsquos top 10weather stories of 2001 available on-line athttpwwwmsc-smcecgccamediatop102001_ehtml (accessed March 2002)

(4) Cohen S and Miller K (2001) North America in Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation andVulnerability (ed) JJ McCarthy OF Canziani NA Leary DJ Dokken and KS White contributionof Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeCambridge University Press p 735ndash800 also availableon-line at httpwwwipccchpubreportshtm(accessed July 2002)

(5) Arnell N and Liu C (2001) Hydrology and waterresources in Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptationand Vulnerability (ed) JJ McCarthy OF CanzianiNA Leary DJ Dokken and KS White contributionof Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeCambridge University Press p 191ndash233 also availableon-line at httpwwwipccchpubreportshtm(accessed July 2002)

(6) Hofmann N Mortsch L Donner S Duncan KKreutzwiser R Kulshreshtha S Piggott ASchellenberg S Schertzerand B and Slivitzky M(1998) Climate change and variability impacts onCanadian water in Responding to Global ClimateChange National Sectoral Issue (ed) G Koshida and W Avis Environment Canada Canada CountryStudy Climate Impacts and Adaptation v VII p 1ndash120

(7) Chalecki EL and Gleick PH (1999) A frameworkof ordered climate effects on water resources a com-prehensive bibliography Journal of the AmericanWater Resources Association v 35 no 6 p 1657ndash1665

(8) Herrington R Johnson BN and Hunter FG (1997)Responding to global climate change in the PrairiesEnvironment Canada Canada Country Study ClimateImpacts and Adaptation v III 75 p

(9) Dolan AH Kreutzwiser RD and de Loeuml RC (2000)Rural water use and conservation in southwesternOntario Journal of Soil and Water Conservation v 55no 2 p 161ndash171

(10) British Columbia Ministry of the Environment Landsand Parks (1999) A water conservation strategy for British Columbia available on-line at httpwlapwwwgovbccawatwamrwater_conservationindexhtml (accessed June 2002)

(11) Ryder JM (1998) Geomorphological processes inthe alpine areas of Canada the effects of climatechange and their impacts on human activitiesGeological Survey of Canada Bulletin 524 44 p

(12) Zhang X Harvey KD Hogg WD and YuzykTR (2001) Trends in Canadian streamflow WaterResources Research v 37 no 4 p 987ndash998

(13) Demuth MN Pietroniro A and Ouarda TBMJ(2002) Streamflow regime shifts resulting fromrecent glacier fluctuations in the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains report preparedwith the support of the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative

(14) International Joint Commission (2000) Protection of the waters of the Great Lakes final report to the governments of Canada and the United StatesInternational Joint Commission February 22 200069 p

(15) Beltaos S (1997) Effects of climate on river icejams 9th Workshop on River Ice Fredericton New Brunswick Proceedings p 225ndash244

(16) Prowse T and Beltaos S (2002) Climatic control ofriver-ice hydrology a review HydrologicalProcesses v 16 no 4 p 805ndash822

(17) Bellamy S Boyd D and Minshall L (2002)Determining the effect of climate change on the hydrology of the Grand River watershed project report prepared for the Climate ChangeAction Fund 15 p

(18) Piggott A Brown D Moin S and Mills B(2001) Exploring the dynamics of groundwater andclimate interaction report prepared for the ClimateChange Action Fund 8 p

(19) Remenda VH and Birks SJ (1999) Groundwater inthe Palliser Triangle An overview of its vulnerabilityand potential to archive climate information inHolocene climate and environmental change in thePalliser Triangle a geoscientific context for evaluatingthe impacts of climate change on the southernCanadian Prairies (ed) DS Lemmen and RE VanceGeological Survey of Canada Bulletin 534 p 57ndash66

(20) Maathuis H and Thorleifson LH (2000)Potential impact of climate change on Prairiegroundwater supplies review of current knowl-edge Saskatchewan Research Council PublicationNo 11304-2E00 prepared with the support of thePrairie Adaptation Research Collaborative 43 p

(21) Bruce J Burton I Martin H Mills B andMortsch L (2000) Water sector vulnerability and adaptation to climate change report preparedfor the Climate Change Action Fund June 2000available on-line at httpissgscnrcangccacciarnWaterResourcesImpacts-workshopreportspdf(accessed June 2002)


(22) Nicholls KH (1999) Effects of temperature andother factors on summer phosphorus in the inner Bay of Quinte Lake Ontario implications for climatewarming Journal of Great Lakes Research v 25 no 2 p 250ndash262

(23) Schindler DW (1998) A dim future for boreal water-shed landscapes BioScience v 48 p 157ndash164

(24) Hudon C (2000) Phytoplankton assemblages in the St Lawrence River downstream of its confluence withthe Ottawa River Quebec Canada Canadian Journalof Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences v 57(SUPPL 1) p 16ndash30

(25) Adams RM Hurd BH and Reilly J (1999)Agriculture and global climate change a review ofimpacts to US agricultural resources Pew Center forGlobal Climate Change Arlington Virginia availableon-line at httpwwwpewclimateorgprojectsenv_agriculturecfm (accessed June 2002)

(26) Mehdi B Hovda J and Madramootoo CA (2002)Impacts of climate change on Canadian waterresources in Proceedings of the Canadian WaterResources Association Annual Conference June 11ndash142002 Winnipeg Manitoba

(27) Chen Z and Grasby S (2001) Predicting variationsin groundwater levels in response to climate changeupper carbonate rock aquifer southern Manitobaclimatic influences on groundwater levels in thePrairies including case studies and aquifers understress as a basis for the development of adaptationstrategies for future climatic changes project report(Phase II) prepared with the support of the PrairieAdaptation Research Collaborative 18 p

(28) Schindler DW (2001) The cumulative effects of climatewarming and other human stresses on Canadian fresh-waters in the new millennium Canadian Journal ofFisheries and Aquatic Science v 58 no 1 p 18ndash29

(29) Devito KJ Hill AR and Dillon PJ (1999)Episodic sulphate export from wetlands in acidifiedheadwater catchments prediction at the landscapescale Biogeochemistry v 44 p 187ndash203

(30) Branfireun BA Roulet NT Kelly CA and RuddJW (1999) In situ sulphate stimulation of mercurymethylation in a boreal peatland toward a linkbetween acid rain and methyl-mercury contamina-tion in remote environments Global BiogeochemicalCycles v 13 no 3 p 743ndash750

(31) Van der Kamp G Hayashi M and Conly FM(2001) Controls on the area and permanence of wetlands in the northern Prairies of NorthAmerica report prepared with the support of theClimate Change Action Fund 10 p

(32) Mortsch L (1998) Assessing the impact of climatechange on the Great Lakes shoreline wetlandsClimatic Change v 40 no 2 p 391ndash416

(33) Ashmore P and Church M (2001) The impact of climate change on rivers and river processes in CanadaGeological Survey of Canada Bulletin 555 p 58

(34) Prowse T Beltaos S Bonsal B Pietroniro AMarsh P Leconte R Martz L Romolo L ButtleJM Peters D and Blair D (2001) Climate changeimpacts on northern river ecosystems and adapta-tion strategies via the hydroelectric industryevaluation report prepared for the Climate ChangeAction Fund

(35) Voumlroumlsmarty CJ Green P Salisbury J and LammersRB (2000) Global water resources vulnerability fromclimate change and population growth Science v 289no 5477 p 284ndash288

(36) Frederick KD and Gleick PH (1999) Water and global climate change potential impacts on US water resources prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change available on-line athttpwwwpewclimateorgprojectsclim_changecfm(accessed June 2002)

(37) Filion Y (2000) Implications for Canadian waterresources and hydropower production CanadianWater Resources Journal v 25 no 3 p 255ndash269

(38) Jackson RB Carpenter SR Dahm CN McKnight DM Naiman RJ Postel SL andRunning SW (2001) Water in a changing worldEcological Applications v 11 no 4 p 1027ndash1045

(39) Gleick PH (senior author) (2000) Water the potential consequences of climate variability andchange for the water resources of the United Statesreport to the Water Sector Assessment Team of theNational Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the US GlobalChange Research Program 150 p

(40) Seacrest S Kuzelka R and Leonard R (2000)Global climate change and public perception the challenge of translation Journal of the American Water Resources Association v 36 no 2 p 253ndash263

(41) de Loeuml R Kreutzwiser R and Moraru L (1999)Climate change and the Canadian water sectorimpacts and adaptation report prepared for Natural Resources Canada May 1999

(42) Chao PT Hobbs BF and Venkatesh BN (1999)How climate uncertainty should be included inGreat Lakes management modelling workshopresults Journal of the American Water ResourcesAssociation v 35 no 6 p 1485ndash1497

(43) de Loeuml R and Kreutzwiser R (2000) Climate variability climate change and water resource management in the Great Lakes Climatic Change v 45 p 163ndash179

(44) Andres D and Van der Vinne G (1998) Effects of climate change on the freeze-up regime of the PeaceRiver in Ice in Surface Waters (ed) Hung TaoShen Proceedings of the 14th InternationalSymposium on Ice New York July 27ndash31 1998 v 1p 153ndash158

(45) Gan TY (2000) Reducing vulnerability of waterresources of Canadian Prairies to potential droughtsand possible climatic warming Water ResourcesManagement v 14 no 2 p 111ndash135


(46) Kije Sipi Ltd (2001) Impacts and adaptation ofdrainage systems design methods and policiesreport prepared for the Climate Change ActionFund 119 p

(47) Arnell NW (2000) Thresholds and response to climate change forcing the water sector ClimaticChange v 46 p 305ndash316

(48) Murdoch PS Baron JS and Miller TL (2000)Potential effects of climate change on surface-waterquality in North America Journal of the AmericanWater Resources Association v 36 no 2 p 347ndash366

(49) Lettenmaier DP Wood AW Palmer RN WoodEF and Stakhiv EZ (1999) Water resources impli-cations of global warming a US regional perspectiveClimatic Change v 43 no 3 p 537ndash579

(50) Southam CF Mills BN Moulton RJ and Brown DW (1999) The potential impact of climatechange in Ontariorsquos Grand River basin water supplyand demand issues Canadian Water ResourcesJournal v 24 no 4 p 307ndash330

(51) Denault C Millar RG and Lence BJ (2002)Climate change and drainage infrastructure capacityin an urban catchment in Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Canadian Society for CivilEngineering June 5ndash6 2002 Montreacuteal Quebec

(52) Ivey J Smithers J de Loeuml R and KreutzwiserR (2001) Strengthening rural community capacityfor adaptation to low water levels report preparedfor the Climate Change Action Fund 42 p

(53) Boland JJ (1998) Water supply and climate uncertainty in Global Change and Water ResourcesManagement (ed) K Shilling and E StakhivUniversities Council on Water Resources Water Resources Update Issue 112 p 55ndash63

(54) Waller DH and Scott RS (1998) Canadian munici-pal residential water conservation initiative CanadianWater Resources Journal v 23 no 4 p 369ndash406

(55) Henderson JD and Revel RD (2000) A communi-ty approach to water management on a small westcoast island Canadian Water Resources Journal v 25no 3 p 271ndash278

(56) Cohen S and Kulkarni T (2001) Water manage-ment and climate change in the Okanagan basinreport prepared for the Climate Change ActionFund 43 p

(57) Kreutzwiser R Moraru L and de Loeuml R (1998)Municipal water conservation in Ontario report on a comprehensive survey prepared for Great Lakesand Corporate Affairs Office Environment CanadaOntario Region Burlington Ontario

(58) Bruce JP (2002) Personal communication

(59) Mortsch L Hengeveld H Lister M Lofgren BQuinn FH Slivitzky M and Wenger L (2000)Climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Great LakesndashSt Lawrence system Canadian WaterResources Journal v 25 no 2 p 153ndash179

(60) Saunders JO (2000) Law and the management ofthe Great Lakes basin Canadian Water ResourcesJournal v 25 no 2 p 209ndash242

Agriculture

In 1998 the Canadian agriculture and agri-foodindustry generated approximately $95 billion in domestic revenue and was the third largestemployer in the country(2 3) Canadarsquos agri-foodexports in 2000 were valued at $234 billionaccounting for 61 of total merchandiseexports(3) Farming operations are spread acrossCanada with the greatest area of farmland locatedin the Prairie Provinces (Table 1) Cattle and dairyfarms account for the highest amounts of farm cash

receipts although wheat canola and other cerealsand oilseeds are also important contributors(4)

Although agriculture is a vital component of theCanadian economy only a small percentage of our country is actually farmed Due to limitationsimposed primarily by climate and soils just 7 of Canadarsquos landmass is used for agricultural pur-poses(5) Climate is also a strong control on thevariation in year-to-year production For examplethe drought that plagued much of Canada during

ldquoAgriculture is inherently sensitive to climatehellip Without

adaptation climate change is generally problematic for

agricultural production and for agricultural economies

and communities but with adaptation vulnerability can be reducedhelliprdquo(1)

A G R I C U LT U R E 53

TABLE 1 Distribution of farms across Canada(4)

Region No of farms Total area of farms (ha) Main types of farm

Canada 230 540 67 502 446 Cattle (beef) grain and oilseed

Newfoundland and Labrador 519 40 578 Misc specialty vegetable

Prince Edward Island 1 739 261 482 Cattle (beef) field crop

Nova Scotia 3 318 407 046 Misc specialty fruit

New Brunswick 2 563 388 053 Cattle (beef) misc specialty

Quebec 30 539 3 417 026 Cattle (dairy) misc specialty

Ontario 55 092 5 466 233 Cattle (beef) grain and oilseed

Manitoba 19 818 7 601 772 Cattle (beef) grain and oilseed

Saskatchewan 48 990 26 265 645 Wheat grain and oilseed

Alberta 50 580 21 067 486 Cattle (beef) grain and oilseed

British Columbia 17 382 2 587 118 Misc specialty cattle (beef)

with receipts over $2499


2001 seriously impacted farm operations Watershortages and heat stress in some regions ofSaskatchewan and Alberta have significantly low-ered crop yields and threatened the availability offeed and water for livestock(6) Some other impactsof the 2001 drought are listed in Table 2 In certainareas of the Prairies 2001 was part of a multiyeardrought that extended into the summer of 2002

Many believe that the consequences of the 2001drought may be indicative of what the agriculturesector in Canada can expect more frequently in thefuture Climate change could lead to more extreme

weather conditions increases in pest problems and severe water shortages On the other hand a warmer climate and longer growing season could benefit many aspects of Canadian agricul-ture In general experts agree that future climatechanges of the magnitude projected by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(8)

would result in both advantages and disadvantagesfor the agricultural sector in Canada and that theimpacts would vary on a regional basis

A key factor in determining the magnitude of cli-mate change impacts on agriculture is adaptationAppropriate adaptations would allow agriculture to minimize losses by reducing negative impactsand maximize profits through capitalizing on thebenefits There are many different adaptationoptions available to the agricultural sector whichvary greatly in their application and approachSelecting and implementing adaptation strategieswill require consideration of the physical socio-economic and political influences on agriculture as well as the contributing roles of producersindustry and government It is also necessary torecognize that climate change is just one of manychallenges facing the agricultural sector and that it may not be considered a short-term priority indecision making

This chapter examines recent research on climatechange impacts and adaptation in the Canadianagricultural sector focusing on primary productionand the vulnerability of agriculture at the farmlevel The potential impacts of climate change onthe agri-food industry and possible adaptationoptions although extremely important are notaddressed comprehensively as these topics remainpoorly investigated and only limited publishedinformation is available

TABLE 2 Impacts of the 2001 drought on agriculture(6 7)

Region Impacts

British Columbia bull Losses in vegetable cropsbull Negative effects on forage crops

especially in northern Okanagan

Prairies bull Wheat and canola production down 43 from 2000

bull Impact of decreased grain production estimated at $5 billion

bull Water for irrigation in spring rationed in Alberta for first time

bull In Manitoba increased disease problems in canola barley and wheat

Great Lakesndash bull Most crops in Ontario impactedSt Lawrence by dry weather and heat

bull Increased stress from disease insects and hail

bull Record numbers of certain insects in Quebec

Atlantic bull Potato harvest in PEI down 35ndash45bull Fruit (eg blueberries strawberries)

and other vegetable (eg beans)crops impacted by drought stress

Previous Work

ldquoGlobal climatic changes will in all likelihood result

in both positive and negative impacts on Canadian

agriculturerdquo(9)

In their summary of Canadian research as part of the Canada Country Study Brklacich et al(9) statedthat climate change will have a wide range of impacts on agriculture in Canada Most regions of the countryare expected to experience warmer conditions longerfrost-free seasons and increased evapotranspirationThe actual impacts of these changes on agriculturaloperations however will vary depending on factorssuch as precipitation changes soil conditions andland use In general northern agricultural regions are expected to benefit most from longer and warmerfrost-free seasons Some northern locations (egPeace River region of Alberta and British Columbiaand parts of northern Ontario and Quebec) may alsoexperience new opportunities for cultivation althoughthe benefits will likely be restricted to areas south oflatitude 60degN for the next several decades Poor soilconditions will be a major factor limiting the north-ward expansion of agricultural crops In southernOntario and Quebec warmer conditions may increasethe potential for the growth of specialty crops such as apples

In many cases the positive and negative impacts of climate change would tend to offset each otherFor instance the positive impacts of warmer tempera-tures and enhanced CO2 on crop growth are expectedto largely offset the negative impacts of increasedmoisture stress and accelerated crop maturation timeIt should be noted that these predictions are charac-terized by a high degree of uncertainty and do notinclude potential changes in pest and pathogen outbreaks (eg warmer winters may increasegrasshopper infestations in the Prairies) nor do they consider the potential impacts of agriculturalland fragmentation

Agricultural adaptation to climate change was consid-ered a relatively new field of study at the time of theCanada Country Study The majority of adaptationresearch focused on identifying adaptation options

and assessing their feasibility These studies weremainly technical in nature and did not consider economic practicalities or the capacity of producersto undertake the adaptation To address thisBrklacich et al(9) recommended increasing the farm-ing communityrsquos involvement in adaptation research

Impacts on Agriculture

ldquoClimate change will impact agriculture by causing

damage and gain at scales ranging from individual

plants or animals to global trade networksrdquo(10)

Impacts on Crops

Climate change will potentially have many impactson agricultural production (Figure 1) As such thereis great variation in projections of crop response toclimate change with both gains and losses commonlypredicted Several recent Canadian studies have inte-grated crop models with general circulation model(GCM) output for a 2xCO2 climate scenario in orderto project the impact of climate change on differenttypes of crops Examples include

bull McGinn et al(11) who suggested that yields ofcanola corn and wheat in Alberta would increaseby between 21 and 124

bull Singh et al(12) who suggested that corn andsorghum yields in Quebec could increase by 20whereas wheat and soybean yields could decline by 20ndash30 Canola sunflowers potatoes tobaccoand sugarbeets are expected to benefit while adecrease in yields is anticipated for green peasonions tomatoes and cabbage

bull Bootsma et al(13) who suggested that there couldbe an increase in grain corn and soybean yields in the Atlantic Provinces by 38 and 10 tonneshectare respectively whereas barley yields are notexpected to experience significant changes Theyfurther suggested that a minimum of 50 of theagricultural land area presently seeded to smallgrain cereals and silage corn may shift productionto grain corn and soybeans to maximize economic gains



As with other sectors concerns exist about the resolution of GCM output when modelling agricul-tural impacts (eg reference 12) Many studiesinterpolate GCM data to obtain regional projectionsof future changes in climate Questions have beenraised about the validity of the interpolation meth-ods and the accuracy of the results especially forregions with specific microclimates (eg NiagaraPeninsula Annapolis Valley) With respect tomethodology however a recent statistical studyconcluded that differences in the downscaling meth-ods used to address scale issues do not undulyinfluence study results(14) thereby increasing general confidence in model projections

Increased moisture stress and drought are majorconcerns for both irrigated and non-irrigated cropsacross the country If adequate water is not avail-able production declines and entire harvests canbe lost While climate change is expected to causemoisture patterns to shift there is still considerableuncertainty concerning the magnitude and directionof such changes Furthermore longer growing sea-sons and higher temperatures would be expected toincrease demand for water as would changes inthe frequency of drought Boxes 1 and 2 describethe results of recent studies that examined how climate change may affect moisture conditions inthe Prairies and the Okanagan Valley two of thedriest agricultural regions of Canada





















While there remain considerable uncertaintiesregarding the nature of future climate changes atthe regional and local scales there is no questionthat the level of CO2 in the atmosphere will continue to increase for several decades Enhancedatmospheric CO2 concentrations have generallybeen found to increase crop production This isbecause higher CO2 levels tend to improve plantwater-use efficiency and rates of photosynthesisHowever the relationship is not simple For instancecertain types of plants such as legumes areexpected to benefit more in the future than othersand the nutritional quality of some crops will

BOX 2 Water supply and demand in the Okanagan(17)

Agricultural viability in the southern OkanaganValley is greatly influenced by the availability ofirrigation water The researchers project that cropwater demands and irrigation requirements willincrease by more than 35 from historic values by the latter part of the present century While themain lake and channel are expected to containenough water to meet these rising demands agricultural operations dependent on tributary flow will likely experience water shortages

To deal with future water supply-demand mis-matches Neilsen et al(17) advocate increased use of water conservation measures such as micro-irrigation and applying soil mulches They also suggested that new techniques including regulateddeficit irrigation and partial root zone drying wouldyield substantial water savings

Photo courtesy of Stewart Cohen 2001

BOX 1 Will the Prairies become drier(15 16)

Will moisture deficits and drought increase in the future due to climate change This is a keyquestion for the Prairie Provinces where moistureconstraints are already a large concern and recur-rent drought results in substantial economic lossesin the agricultural community Unfortunately aclear answer to this question remains elusive

Using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modellingand Analysis coupled General Circulation Model(CGCM1) Nyirfa and Harron(16) found that moisturelimitations would be significantly higher over muchof the Prairiesrsquo agricultural regions by 2040ndash2069Although precipitation is expected to increase itwill not be sufficient to offset increased moisturelosses from warmer temperatures and increasedrates of evapotranspiration As a result theresearchers believe that spring-seeded small graincrops will be threatened unless adaptations suchas cropping changes and shifts in pasture areasare undertaken

In contrast using a range of climate change sce-narios McGinn et al(15) found that moisture levelsin the top 120 cm of the soil profile would be thesame or higher than present-day values Theirmodels also suggested that the seeding dates forspring wheat will be advanced by 18ndash26 days andthat the growing season will be accelerated Thiswould allow crops to be harvested earlier in theyear thereby avoiding the arid conditions of latesummer However the benefits are not expected tobe felt evenly across the Prairies there are regionsof concern such as southeastern Saskatchewanand southern Manitoba where summer precipita-tion is projected to decrease

Photo courtesy of Agricultureand Agri-Food Canada


likely decline In addition there are several factorsincluding moisture conditions and the availabilityof soil nutrients that could limit or negate the ben-efits of CO2 fertilization on plant growth Althoughsome impact studies do attempt to incorporate CO2

effects into their modelling many researchers feelthat there are too many uncertainties to effectivelyintegrate the effects of increased atmospheric CO2

(12)

Another complicating factor in projecting futuretrends in crop yields is the interaction of climaticchanges and enhanced CO2 concentrations withother environmental stresses such as ozone andUV-B radiation For example warmer temperaturestend to increase ground-level ozone concentrationswhich in turn negatively affect crop productionStudies have suggested that the detrimental effectsof enhanced ozone concentrations on crop yieldsmay offset any gains in productivity that resultfrom increased atmospheric CO2 levels(18)

Changing winter conditions would also significantlyimpact crop productivity and growth Climate mod-els project that future warming will be greatest during the winter months With warmer wintersthe risk of damage to tree fruit and grape root-stocks will decline substantially in areas such asthe southern Okanagan Valley(17) However warmerwinters are also expected to create problems foragriculture especially with respect to pestsbecause extreme winter cold is often critical forcontrolling populations Warmer winters may also affect the resilience of crops (see Box 3)

Many crops may be more sensitive to changes in the frequency of extreme temperatures than to changes in mean conditions For example an extreme hot spell at the critical stage of cropdevelopment has been shown to decrease the finalyields of annual seed crops (eg reference 20) anddamage tree fruit such as apples(17) Crops thatrequire several years to establish (eg fruit trees)are especially sensitive to extreme events To datehowever most impact studies have focused onchanges in mean conditions with scenarios ofextreme climate events only now being developedMany experts believe that an increase in the fre-quency and intensity of extreme events would bethe greatest challenge facing the agricultural industry as a result of climate change

Another factor not usually included in modelling ofclimate change impacts is future changes in windpatterns mainly because wind projections fromGCMs are highly uncertain(21) and wind phenome-na in general are poorly understood Howeverwind is clearly an important control on agriculturalproduction which strongly influences evapotranspi-ration and soil erosion especially on the PrairiesAs such exclusion of future wind dynamicsincreases the uncertainty in assessments of climate change impacts

Another important consideration for crop produc-tion is the observation that recent warming hasbeen asymmetric with night-time minimumsincreasing more rapidly than daytime maximumsClimate models project that this trend will continuein the future This type of asymmetric warmingtends to reduce crop water loss from evapotranspi-ration and improve water use efficiency(22) Undersuch conditions climate change impacts on crop productivity may be less severe than theimpacts predicted assuming equal day and night warming(23)

BOX 3 Would warmer winters benefit crops(19)

Although harsh winters are a constraint to the distribution of perennial crops warmer winters arenot necessarily beneficial In fact winter damage to perennial forage crops could actually increase in eastern Canada due to reduced cold hardeningduring the fall an increase in the frequency of winter thaw events and a decrease in protectivesnow cover For example by 2040ndash2069 despite an increase in annual minimum temperatures ofalmost 5ordmC the number of cold days (below -15ordmC)without a protective snow cover (gt01 m depth)could increase by more than two weeks

Conversely fruit trees are expected to benefit froma decreased risk of winter damage This is becausemilder winter temperatures would reduce coldstress while a decrease in late spring frosts wouldlower the risk of bud damage in many regionsHowever an increase in winter thaw events woulddecrease the hardiness of the trees and increasetheir sensitivity to cold temperatures in late winter


Impacts on Livestock

There are more than 90000 livestock operations in Canada which accounted for more than $17 bil-lion in farm cash receipts in 2000(4) Despite theeconomic importance of livestock operations toCanada relatively few studies have examined how they could be impacted by climate change

Temperature is generally considered to be the most important bioclimatic factor for livestock(24)

Warmer temperatures are expected to present bothbenefits and challenges to livestock operationsBenefits would be particularly evident during winter when warmer weather lowers feed require-ments increases survival of the young and reducesenergy costs(25) Challenges would increase duringthe summer however when heat waves can killanimals For example large numbers of chickendeaths are commonly reported in the United Statesduring heat waves(26 27) Heat stress also adverselyaffects milk production meat quality and dairy cowreproduction(24) In addition warmer summer tem-peratures have been shown to suppress appetites in livestock and hence reduce weight gain(28) Forexample a study conducted in Appalachia foundthat a 5degC increase in mean summer temperaturecaused a 10 decrease in cowcalf and dairy operations(28)

Provided there is adequate moisture warmer temperatures and elevated CO2 concentrations are generally expected to increase growth rates in grasslands and pastures(29 30 31) It is estimatedthat a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would increasegrassland productivity by an average of 17(29)

with greater increases projected for colder regions(32)

and moisture-limited grassland systems(29) Howeverstudy results tend to vary greatly with location andchanges in species composition may affect the actualimpacts on livestock grazing(29) For instance studieshave noted future climate changes particularlyextreme events may promote the invasion of alienspecies into grasslands(33) which could reduce thenutritional quality of the grass

An increase in severe moisture deficits due todrought may require producers to reduce theirstock of grazing cattle to preserve their land asexemplified by the drought of 2001 when manyPrairie producers had to cull their herds For the2002 season it was predicted that many pastures

would be unable to support any grazing while others would be reduced to 20ndash30 of normal herd capacity(34)

There is relatively little literature available on theimpacts of extreme climate events on livestockNevertheless storms blizzards and droughts are an important concern for livestock operations(28)

In addition to the direct effects on animals stormsmay result in power outages that can devastatefarms that are heavily dependent upon electricityfor daily operations This was exemplified by the1998 ice storm in eastern Ontario and southernQuebec when the lack of power left many dairyfarms unable to use their milking machines Thisthreatened the health of the cows (due to potentialmastitis) and caused significant revenue losses(35)

Milk revenue was also lost through the inability to store the milk at the proper temperatureFurthermore the lack of electricity made it difficultto provide adequate barn ventilation and heatingthereby making the animals more susceptible to illness(35)

Soil Degradation

ldquoSoil degradation emerges as one of the major

challenges for global agriculture It is induced via

erosion chemical depletion water saturation

and solute accumulationrdquo(10)

Climate change may impact agricultural soil qualitythrough changes in soil carbon content nutrientleaching and runoff For example changes inatmospheric CO2 concentrations shifts in vegeta-tion and changes in dryingrewetting cycles wouldall affect soil carbon and therefore soil quality andproductivity(36 37)

Soil erosion threatens agricultural productivity andsustainability and adversely affects air and waterquality(38) There are several ways that soil erosioncould increase in the future due to climate changeWind and water erosion of agricultural soils arestrongly tied to extreme climatic events such asdrought and flooding which are commonly pro-jected to increase as a result of climate change(21 39)

Land use change could exacerbate these impactsas conversion of natural vegetation cover croplandgreatly increases the sensitivity of the landscape to


erosion from drought and other climatic fluctua-tions(40) Warmer winters may result in a decreasein protective snow cover which would increase theexposure of soils to wind erosion whereas anincrease in the frequency of freeze-thaw cycleswould enhance the breakdown of soil particles(41)

The risk of soil erosion would also increase if producers respond to drought conditions throughincreased use of tillage summerfallow

Pests and Weeds

Weeds insects and diseases are all sensitive to temperature and moisture(42) and some organismsare also receptive to atmospheric CO2 concentra-tions(43 44) Therefore understanding how climatechange will affect pests pathogens and weeds is acritically important component of impact assess-ments of climate change on agriculture

Most studies of climate change impacts on weedsinsects and diseases state a range of possible out-comes and have been generally based on expertopinion rather than results of field- or lab-basedresearch experiments Conclusions from these studies include the following

bull Elevated CO2 concentration may increase weed growth(42)

bull Livestock pests and pathogens may migrate northas the frost line shifts northward(28)

bull The probability of year-to-year virus survival may increase(45)

bull Warmer winters may increase the range andseverity of insect and disease infestations(42)

bull Longer and warmer summers may cause morefrequent outbreaks of pests such as the Colaradopotato beetle(46)

bull Pathogen development rate and host resistancemay change(47)

bull Geographic distribution of plant diseases may change(48)

bull Competitive interactions between weeds andcrops may be affected(49)

Studies are needed to test and validate these predictions and the results must be better incorpo-rated into impact assessments(50)

Significant work has been completed on the clima-tic controls on grasshopper populations in Albertaand Saskatchewan(51) This research has shown that grasshopper reproduction and survival areenhanced by warm and dry conditions For exam-ple warm and dry weather in 2001 was associatedwith a 50 increase in the average number ofadult grasshoppers per square metre compared to values in 2000 Above-average temperaturesincrease the development and maturation ofgrasshoppers and allow them to lay more eggsbefore the onset of frost Mild winters also benefitgrasshopper populations because extreme cold temperatures can kill overwintering eggs(51) Anincrease in temperature and drought conditions in the Prairies as projected by climate models(52)

could lead to more intense and widespreadgrasshopper infestations in the future

Recent work indicates that the relationshipsbetween elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrationswarmer temperatures and pest species are complexAn example is a study of the impacts on aphids(43)

serious pests that stunt plant growth and deformleaves flowers and buds Although elevated CO2

concentrations enhanced aphid reproduction ratesthey also made the aphids more vulnerable to natural enemies by decreasing the amount of analarm pheromone This suggests that aphids may in fact become less successful in an enhanced CO2 environment(43)

Invasive species such as weeds are extremelyadaptable to a changing climate as illustrated bytheir large latitudinal ranges at present Invasivespecies also tend to have rapid dispersal character-istics which allow them to shift ranges quickly inresponse to changing climates As a result thesespecies could become more dominant in manyareas under changing climate conditions(44)

It is also expected that climate change woulddecrease pesticide efficacy which would necessitatechanges to disease forecasting models and diseasemanagement strategies(48 49) This could involveheavier and more frequent applications withpotential threats to non-target organisms andincreased water pollution(49) as well as increasedcosts associated with pesticide use(53) Similartrends are predicted for herbicide use and costs in the future(54)


Economic Impacts

Assessing the economic impacts of climate changeon agriculture generally involves the use of a vari-ety of tools including climate crop and economicmodels Each step in the modelling process requiresthat assumptions be made with the result that finaloutputs are limited by cascading uncertainties(25)

It is therefore not surprising that agricultural economic impact assessments in Canada are char-acterized by great variability(55) On a general levelhowever the economic impacts of climate changeare expected to mirror the biophysical impacts(eg economic benefits are predicted where effectson crop yields are positive) Studies suggest thatCanadian agriculture should generally benefit frommodest warming(28)

It must be noted however that most economicimpact assessments do not consider changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events Thesensitivity of agriculture to extreme events asnoted previously suggests that overall economiclosses could be more severe than commonly pro-jected For instance the 1988 drought caused anestimated $4 billion in export losses(56) and the2001 drought is expected to result in record payoutsfrom crop insurance programs of $11 to 14billion(6) Economic impact studies also tend toaggregate large regions and generally do notacknowledge the impacts on specific farm typesand communities(55)

International markets will also play a significant role in determining the economic impacts of climatechange on the Canadian agricultural sector In factchanges in other countries could have as muchinfluence on Canadian agriculture as domesticchanges in production(9) North American agricul-ture plays a significant role in world food produc-tion and since Canada is generally expected to farebetter than many other countries with respect to the impacts of climate change international marketsmay favour the Canadian economy Trade agree-ments such as NAFTA and GATT are also likely toaffect Canadian agriculture(57) however quantitativestudies of these issues are generally lacking

Agricultural Adaptation toClimate Change

ldquoThe agriculture sector historically has shown

enormous capacity to adjust to social and

environmental stimuli that are analogous to

climate stimulirdquo(10)

To assess the vulnerability of agriculture to climatechange it is necessary to consider the role of adap-tation Appropriate adaptations can greatly reducethe magnitude of the impacts of climate change(see Box 4) Assessment of adaptation options must consider six key questions(28 55 58 59)

bull To what climate variables is agriculture most sensitive

bull Who needs to adapt (eg producers consumers industry)

bull Which adaptation options are worth promoting or undertaking

bull What is the likelihood that the adaptation wouldbe implemented

bull Who will bear the financial costs

bull How will the adaptation affect culture and livelihoods

BOX 4 How does adaptation affect impact assessments(60)

When adaptation measures were incorporateddirectly into impact assessments the impacts of climate change on crop yields were found to be minimal in agricultural regions across CanadaIn fact yields of many crops including soybeanspotatoes and winter wheat were projected toincrease under a 2xCO2 scenario Some adaptationoptions considered in the study included usingnitrogen fertilization to offset the negative impactsof increased water stress on spring wheat andadvancing the planting dates of barley


It is also important to understand how adaptationto climate change fits within larger decision-makingprocesses(61) Climate change itself is unlikely to be a major control on adaptation instead decisionmaking by producers will continue to be drivenjointly by changes in market conditions and policies

Adaptation Options

Adaptation options can be classified into the following categories

bull technological developments (eg new crop varieties water management innovations)

bull government programs and insurance (eg agricultural subsidies private insurance)

bull farm production practices (eg crop diversifica-tion irrigation) and

bull farm financial management (eg crop sharesincome stabilization programs)(1)

These adaptations could be implemented by a number of different groups including individualproducers government organizations and the agri-food industry(1) These groups have differinginterests and priorities which may at times conflict Therefore before determining which adaptation options should be promoted or imple-mented they should be carefully and thoroughlyassessed (see Box 5)

Much of the adaptation research in agriculture hasfocused on water shortages Common suggestionsfor addressing water-related concerns includeimproving irrigation systems and adjusting theselection of planting dates and cultivars(60 61) Forinstance longer and warmer growing seasons mayallow earlier planting and harvesting dates so thatthe extremely arid conditions of late summer areavoided To deal with historic water shortages insouthern Alberta irrigation canals were upgradedwater storage capacity was increased and irrigationmanagement was improved(63) These strategiesalong with water transfers and changes to cropinsurance programs are adaptation options oftensuggested for dealing with future climate changes

Water conservation measures are another importantadaptation mechanism for agriculture For examplesnow management could be used to increase waterstorage(64) while equipment maintenance andupkeep could help to reduce water waste(62) Theuse of summerfallow may be necessary for drylandfarmers in areas of recurrent drought but use ofminimum tillage and chemical fallow techniquesoffer significant advantages over tillage summerfal-lowing with respect to soil erosion and retention oforganic carbon in the soil(65)

New species and hybrids could play an importantrole in agricultural adaptation Development of new heat- and drought-resistant crop varieties is a frequently recommended adaptation optionImproving the adaptability of agricultural species to climate and pests is an important component ofthe research being conducted at federal provincialuniversity and industrial organizations(3) Thepotential role of biotechnology and soil organismsin enhancing the resilience of soils and plants isalso being investigated(3)

BOX 5 Evaluating adaptation options(62)

The applicability and success of different adapta-tion options will vary greatly between regions andfarm types To determine whether an adaptationoption is appropriate for a given situation its effectiveness economic feasibility flexibility andinstitutional compatibility should be assessed Inaddition the characteristics of the producer andthe farm operation should be considered as shouldthe nature of the climate change stimuli Possibleeconomic and political constraints are also important considerations

Most importantly however the adaptation optionshould be assessed in the context of a broader decision-making process Researchers agree thatagriculture will adapt to climate change throughongoing management decisions and that the interactions between climatic and non-climaticdrivers rather than climate change alone willdirect adaptation


In eastern Canada the fruit tree sector is expectedto benefit from the introduction of new cultivarsand species(19) and in the southern OkanaganBasin a longer growing season would allow newfruit varieties to be grown(17) In the AtlanticProvinces researchers predict that corn and soybeans will increase in dominance and that corn hybrids commonly used today in southernOntario will be introduced to take advantage ofwarmer temperatures (see Box 6)

There is general optimism regarding the ability oflivestock operations to adapt to warmer tempera-tures The wide geographic distribution of livestockattests to their adaptability to various climates(24)

Some simple adaptations to warmer climatesinclude adjusting shading and air conditioning(24)

and the use of sprinklers to cool livestock duringexcessive summer heat(57) although these optionsmay incur considerable expense

Adapting to changes in moisture availability andextreme conditions may be more challenging Forthe beef industry options that have been discussedinclude advancing the date when livestock isturned out to pasture increasing intensive earlyseason grazing and extending the grazing sea-son(66) The success of these strategies is expectedto vary with location and pasture type The intro-duction of new breeds andor species may alsoplay a significant role in reducing climate changeimpacts on livestock(24) It is noteworthy that noneof these actions are likely to prove effective in miti-gating the impacts of extreme climate events suchas the 2002 Prairie drought that has forced manyranchers to sell off cattle

Sound land management practices are essential forsoil conservation which together with flexibilityregarding land use will help minimize the impactsof climate change on agricultural soils(67) Long-term management strategies that increase soilorganic matter so that soil has a high nutrient content and strong water-holding capacity will also render the land better able to cope with future climatic changes(68)

BOX 6 Adapting in the Atlantic Provinces(13)

Longer and warmer growing seasons are projectedfor the Atlantic Provinces (see figure below) Totake advantage of these new conditions producersare expected to adjust the types of crops grownand introduce new hybrids For instance cropssuch as corn and soybeans are expected toincrease in dominance whereas small grain cere-als will likely decrease Producers should also beprepared to introduce new corn hybrids which areadapted to warmer conditions such as those currently used in southern Ontario

However warmer temperatures are not the only fac-tor influencing crop decision making Researcherspoint out that small grain cereals are unlikely to be phased out completely as they work well inrotation with potatoes and provide straw for animalbedding Other considerations include productioncosts protein levels and financial returns of different crops The suitability of the soil moistureconditions and the influence of crop type on soilerosion must also be considered

Projected number of growing degree days (GDD)above 5ordmC (uses the Canadian CGCM1 with aerosols)


Agricultural Policies

ldquoThe ability of farmers to adapthellipwill depend on

market and institutional signals which may be

partially influenced by climate changerdquo(22)

Government programs and policies such as taxcredits research support trade controls and cropinsurance regulations significantly influence agri-cultural practices(55) For example recent reform of the Western Grain Transportation Act has con-tributed to increased crop diversification on thePrairies(69) Programs and policies may act to eitherpromote or hinder adaptation to climate change(58)

Researchers have suggested for instance that cropinsurance may tend to decrease the propensity offarmers to adapt(70)

It has been suggested that policies designed to pro-mote climate change adaptation in the agriculturalsector must recognize the dynamic nature of boththe biophysical and social systems in agriculture(25)

There is a need for designating responsibility foraction as adaptation occurs at many levels(55)

A general goal of policy development should be to increase the flexibility of agricultural systemsand halt trends that will constrain climate changeadaptation(25 71) No-regrets measures that improveagricultural efficiency and sustainability regardlessof climate change impacts are also encouraged(25)

Producersrsquo Attitudes toward Adaptation

Agricultural producers have demonstrated theirability to adapt to changes in climate and other factors in the past and they will continue to adaptin the future However the key question for agricul-ture is whether adaptation will be predominantlyplanned or reactive The answer appears to dependlargely on the background attitudes and actions ofindividual producers(58)

Producer interviews and focus groups reveal thatto date there is generally little concern in theCanadian agricultural community regarding climatechange (eg references 57 58 72) These attitudeshave been attributed to the confidence of producersin their ability to adapt to changing climatic condi-tions and their tendency to be more concernedwith political and economic factors(58 73) Indeednumerous studies have demonstrated that financialand economic concerns are the primary influenceon producer decision making This does not meanthat adaptation to climate change will not occurbut rather suggests that climate change adaptationswill be incidental to other adaptations and shouldbe viewed as one element of an overall risk management strategy(73)

It is also possible that events such as the 2001drought are changing producersrsquo attitudes towardclimate change particularly when viewed as ananalogue of what might be expected in the futureMultiyear droughts seriously challenge the adaptivecapacity of agriculture At workshops held acrossthe Prairies acceptance of climate change as animportant issue has become common as has agrowing recognition of the need for action(74)

Socio-economic Consequences ofAdaptation

As other countries take action to adapt to climatechange Canada will need to keep pace or riskbeing placed at a competitive disadvantage(55)

In fact successful anticipatory adaptation in theagri-food industry could provide Canadian produc-ers with a competitive advantage Before promotingadaptation options however it is necessary to con-sider the full range of socio-economic impacts Forexample although switching production to a newcrop may increase overall agricultural production it may not be economically viable due to marketingissues and higher capital and operating costs(25)

Since more than 98 of Canadian farms are familyowned and operated(5) the effect that adaptationoptions to climate change will have on culture andlivelihood must also be considered


Knowledge Gaps andResearch Needs

Although understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on Canadian agriculture hasimproved a number of key knowledge gaps particularly with respect to the process of agricul-tural adaptation need to be addressed in order tofully assess vulnerability As with other sectorsemphasis has been placed predominantly on thebiophysical impacts of climate change with lessattention given to socio-economic impactsResearch on climate change impacts and adaptationin the food-processing sector is also sparse Thereis a need for more integrated costing studies whichconsider all potential impacts of climate change on the sector as well as adaptation options Suchinformation is necessary not only for domesticissues but also to assess comparative advantageswithin global agricultural commodity marketsComparisons between studies and regions will be assisted by more standardized use of climatechange scenarios and crop production modelsResearch is also needed to determine what barriersexist to adaptation in the agriculture sector andhow these can be addressed Increased use of new methodologies for assessing vulnerabilitywould help to address these gaps

Another important focus for agricultural research is the identification of thresholds The agriculturesector has proven itself to be highly adaptive butthis adaptation takes place within a certain rangeof climate conditions New adaptive measures may serve to expand this range somewhat butthere exist climatic thresholds beyond which activities are not economically viable and sub-stantive changes in practices would be required An improved understanding of where these criticalthresholds lie will contribute to the development of appropriate adaptation strategies

Needs with respect to primary agricultural produc-tion as identified within the recent literature citedin this chapter include the following

Impacts

1) Increased focus on the impacts of changes in thefrequency of extreme events rather than meanconditions on both crops and livestock

2) Improved understanding of potential changes inwind regimes and their impacts on agriculturalproduction

3) Studies on how climate change will affect theintensity and distribution of weeds insects anddiseases and incorporation of these findings intoimpact assessments

4) More comprehensive studies of the impacts ofclimate change on specific farm types andregions in Canada

5) Analyses of the effects of climatic changes andCO2 fertilization on pastures and grasslands

6) Improved understanding of the role of interna-tional markets in determining the economicimpacts of climate change on Canada

Adaptation

1) Studies that designate responsibility for actionby determining which adaptations are appropri-ate for which groups (eg producers industryand government)

2) Improved understanding of the physical andsocio-economic consequences of differentoptions for adaptation

3) An assessment of the effects that trade and otheragreements will have on promoting climatechange adaptation or maladaptation

4) Studies that address the role of adaptation in decision making at the farm industry and governmental levels

5) Better understanding of the mechanisms for expanding the general adaptive capacity of agriculture


Conclusions

Although warmer temperatures longer growingseasons and elevated CO2 concentrations are gener-ally expected to benefit agriculture in Canada factors such as reduced soil moisture increased frequency of extreme climate events soil degrada-tion and pests have the potential to counteract and potentially exceed these benefits Some regionscould experience net gains while others may seenet losses Regional variations will result from several factors including the nature of climatechange the characteristics of the farming systemorganization and the response of different groups

Appropriate adaptations have the potential to great-ly reduce the overall vulnerability of agriculture toclimate change These adaptations will require the

participation of several different groups includingindividual producers government organizationsthe agri-food industry and research institutionsHistorically the agricultural sector has proven itselfto be highly adaptive to environmental and socialchanges with a strong capacity to adapt in aresponsive manner However to most effectivelyreduce vulnerability anticipatory adaptation is necessary For example efforts to increase adaptivecapacity through diversification and the develop-ment of new technologies represent valuable typesof proactive adaptation Anticipatory adaptation isalso important with respect to major capital invest-ments by producers and the agri-food industry


References

Citations in bold denote reports of research supported by the Government of Canadarsquos Climate Change Action Fund

(1) Smit B and Skinner MW (2002) Adaptationoptions in agriculture to climate change a typologyMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for GlobalChange vol 7 p 85ndash114

(2) Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (1999) Agri-foodsystem overview prepared by the Economic andPolicy Directorate Policy Branch available on-line athttpwwwagrgccapolicyepadenglishpubsafodeckovrvuengpdf (accessed July 2002)

(3) Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (2002a) Canadarsquosagriculture food and beverage industry overview ofthe sector available on-line at httpats-seaagrcasupplye3314pdf (accessed July 2002)

(4) Statistics Canada (2002) 2001 census of agricultureCanadian farm operations in the 21st century avail-able on-line at httpwwwstatcancaenglishagcensus2001indexhtm (accessed June 2002)

(5) Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (2000) All aboutCanadarsquos agri-food industryhellip Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Publication 1916E

(6) Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (2002b) The 2001drought situation implications for Canadian agricul-ture available on-line at wwwagrgccasecheressesumm_ehtml (accessed May 2002)

(7) Environment Canada (2002) Dave Phillipsrsquos top 10 weather stories of 2001 available on-line athttpwwwecgccaPress2001011227_n_ehtm(accessed February 2002)

(8) Albritton DL and Filho LGM (2001) Technicalsummary in Climate Change 2001 The ScientificBasis (ed) Houghton JT Ding Y Griggs DJNoguer M van der Linden PJ Dai X Maskell K and Johnson CA contribution of WorkingGroup I to the Third Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeCambridge University Press p 21ndash84 also availableon-line at httpwwwipccchpubreportshtm(accessed July 2002)

(9) Brklacich M Bryant C Veenhof B andBeauchesne A (1998) Implications of global climatic change for Canadian agriculture a reviewand appraisal of research from 1984 to 1997 inResponding to Global Climate Change NationalSectoral Issue (ed) G Koshida and W AvisEnvironment Canada Canada Country StudyClimate Impacts and Adaptation v VII p 219ndash256

(10) Gitay H Brown S Easterling W and Jallow B (2001) Ecosystems and their goods and services in Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation andVulnerability (ed) JJ McCarthy OF CanzianiNA Leary DJ Dokken and KS White contribu-tion of Working Group II to the Third AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange Cambridge University Press p 735ndash800also available on-line at httpwwwipccchpubreportshtm (accessed July 2002)

(11) McGinn SM Toure A Akinremi OO Major DJ and Barr AG (1999) Agroclimate and cropresponse to climate change in Alberta CanadaOutlook on Agriculture v 28 no 1 p 19ndash28

(12) Singh B El Maayar M Andreacute P Bryant CR andThouez JP (1998) Impacts of a GHG-induced cli-mate change on crop yields effects of acceleration inmaturation moisture stress and optimal temperatureClimatic Change v 38 no 1 p 51ndash86

(13) Bootsma A Gameda S McKenny DW SchutP Hayhoe HN de Jong R and Huffman EC(2001) Adaptation of agricultural production toclimate change in Atlantic Canada final reportsubmitted to the Climate Change Action Fundavailable on-line at httpres2agrcaecorcstaffboots mareportpdf (accessed July 2002)

(14) Brklacich M and Curran P (2002) Impacts of climatic change on agriculture an evaluation of impact assessment procedures unpublishedreport submitted to the Climate Change Action Fund

(15) McGinn SM Shepherd A and Akinremi O(2001) Assessment of climate change and impactson soil moisture and drought on the Prairies final report submitted to the Climate ChangeAction Fund

(16) Nyirfa WN and Harron B (2002) Assessment of climate change on the agricultural resources of the Canadian Prairies report submitted to thePrairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC)

(17) Neilsen D Smith S Koch W Hall J andParchomchuk P (2001) Impact of climate changeon crop water demand and crop suitability in theOkanagan Valley British Columbia final reportsubmitted to the Climate Change Action Fund

(18) Reinert RA Eason G and Barton J (1997)Growth and fruiting of tomato as influenced by elevated carbon dioxide and ozone The NewPhytologist v 137 p 411ndash420

(19) Beacutelanger G Rochette P Boostma ACastonguay Y and Mongrain D (2001) Impact of climate change on risk of winter damage toagricultural perennial plants final report submit-ted to the Climate Change Action Fund


(20) Wheeler TR Craufurd PQ Ellis RH Porter JR and Vara-Prasad PV (2000) Temperature vari-ability and the yield of annual crops AgricultureEcosystems and Environment v 82 no 1ndash3 p 159ndash167

(21) Williams GDV and Wheaton EE (1998)Estimating biomass and wind erosion impacts forseveral climatic scenarios a Saskatchewan casestudy Prairie Forum v 23 no 1 p 49ndash66

(22) Cohen S and Miller K (2001) North America in Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation andVulnerability (ed) JJ McCarthy OF CanzianiNA Leary DJ Dokken and KS White contribu-tion of Working Group II to the Third AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange Cambridge University Press p 735ndash800also available on-line at httpwwwipccchpubreportshtm (accessed July 2002)

(23) Dhakhwa GB and Campbell CL (1998) Potentialeffects of differential day-night warming in global climate change on crop production Climatic Changev 40 no 3ndash4 p 647ndash667

(24) Roumltter R and van de Geijn SC (1999) Climatechange effects on plant growth crop yield and live-stock Climatic Change v 43 no 4 p 651ndash681

(25) Rosenzweig C and Hillel D (1998) Climate changeand the global harvest potential impacts of thegreenhouse effect on agriculture Oxford UniversityPress New York New York 352 p

(26) National Drought Mitigation Center (1998) Droughtin the United States August 1ndash17 1998 availableon-line at httpensounledundmcimpactsususaug98htm (accessed July 2002)

(27) Faulk K (2002) Cooling fails heat wave kills100000 chickens The Birmingham News July 9 2002

(28) Adams RM Hurd BH and Reilly J (1999)Agriculture and global climate change a review of impacts to US agricultural resources Pew Centerfor Global Climate Change Arlington Virginia available on-line at httpwwwpewclimateorgprojectsenv_agriculturecfm (accessed June 2002)

(29) Campbell BD Stafford Smith DM and GCTEPastures and Rangelands Network members (2000)A synthesis of recent global change research on pas-ture and rangeland production reduced uncertaintiesand their management implications AgricultureEcosystems amp Environment v 82 no 1ndash3 p 39ndash55

(30) Owensby CE Ham JM Knapp AK and AuenLM (1999) Biomass production and species compo-sition change in a tallgrass prairie ecosystem afterlong-term exposure to elevated atmospheric CO2Global Change Biology v 5 no 5 p 497ndash506

(31) Riedo M Gyalistras D Fischlin A and Fuhrer J (1999) Using an ecosystem model linked to GCM-derived local weather scenarios to analyseeffects of climate change and elevated CO2 on drymatter production and partitioning and water use in temperate managed grasslands Global ChangeBiology v 5 no 2 p 213ndash223

(32) Rustad LE Campbell JL Marion GM NorbyRJ Mitchell MJ Hartley AE Cornelissen JHC and Gurevitch J (2001) A meta-analysis of the response of soil respiration net nitrogen mineralization and aboveground plant growth toexperimental ecosystem warming Oecologia v 126no 4 p 543ndash562

(33) White TA Campbell BD Kemp PD and HuntCL (2001) Impacts of extreme climatic events oncompetition during grassland invasions GlobalChange Biology v 7 no 1 p 1ndash13

(34) Teel G (2002) Alberta may put price tag on waterdwindling supply brings radical ideas The CalgaryHerald April 9 2002 p A1

(35) Kerry M Kelk G Etkin D Burton I and KalhokS (1999) Glazed over Canada copes with the icestorm of 1998 Environment v 41 no 1 p 6ndash1128ndash33

(36) Paustian K Elliott ET Killian K and StewartBA (1998) Modeling soil carbon in relation to management and climate change in some agro-ecosystems in central North America in SoilProcesses and the Carbon Cycle (ed) R Lal JMKimble and RF Follett CRC Press Inc Boca RatonFlorida p 459ndash471

(37) Wolters V Silver WL Bignell DE ColemanDC Lavelle P VanderPutten WH DeRuiter PRusek J Wall DH Wardle DA Brussaard LDangerfield JM Brown VK Giller KE HooperDU Sala O Tiedje J and VanVeen JA (2000)Effects of global changes on above- and below-ground biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystems implications for ecosystem functioning Biosciencev 50 no 12 p 1089-1098

(38) Lee JJ Phillips DL and Benson VW (1999) Soil erosion and climate change assessing potentialimpacts and adaptation practices Journal of Soil andWater Conservation v 54 no 3 p 529ndash536

(39) Lemmen DS Vance RE Campbell IA DavidPP Pennock DJ Sauchyn DJ and Wolfe SA(1998) Geomorphic systems of the Palliser Trianglesouthern Canadian Prairies description and responseto changing climate Geological Survey of CanadaBulletin 521 72 p

(40) Sauchyn DJ and Beaudoin AB (1998) Recentenvironmental change in the southwestern CanadianPlains Canadian Geographer v 42 no 4 p 337ndash353


(41) Bullock MS Larney FJ Izaurralde RC and FengY (2001) Overwinter changes in wind erodibility ofclay loam soils in Southern Alberta Soil ScienceSociety of America Journal vol 65 p 423-430

(42) Shriner DS and Street RB (1998) North Americain The Regional Impacts of Climate Change AnAssessment of Vulnerability (ed) RT Watson MCZinyowera RH Moss and DJ DokkenIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1998New York New York

(43) Awmack CS Woodcock CM and Harrington R(1997) Climate change may increase vulnerability ofaphids to natural enemies Ecological Entomology v 22 p 366ndash368

(44) Dukes JS and Mooney HA (1999) Does globalchange increase the success of biological invadersTrends in Ecology and Evolution v 14 p 135ndash139

(45) Wittmann EJ and Baylis M (2000) Climatechange effects on Culicoides-transmitted viruses and implications for the UK Vet-j London BalliereTindall v 160 no 2 p 107ndash117

(46) Holliday NJ (2000) Summary of presentationAgri-Food 2000 Conference Winnipeg Manitoba

(47) Coakley SM Scherm H and Chakraborty S(1999) Climate change and plant disease manage-ment Annual Reviews in Phytopathology v 37 p 399ndash426

(48) Chakraborty S Tiedemann AV and Teng PS(2000) Climate change potential impact on plantdiseases Environmental Pollution v 108 no 3 p 317ndash326

(49) Patterson DT Westbrook JK Joyce RJVLingren PD and Rogasik J (1999) Weeds insectsand diseases Climatic Change v 43 no 4 p 711ndash727

(50) Scherm H Sutherst RW Harrington R andIngram JSI (2000) Global networking for assess-ment of impacts of global change on plant pestsEnvironmental Pollution v 108 no 3 p 333ndash341

(51) Johnson DL (2002) 2002 grasshopper forecast for the Canadian prairies available on-line athttpres2agrcalethbridgescitechdljforecast_feb4_2002fullpdf (accessed July 2002)

(52) Wolfe SA and Nickling WG (1997) Sensitivity of eolian processes to climate change in CanadaGeological Survey of Canada Bulletin 421 30 p

(53) Chen CC and McCarl BA (2001) An investigationof the relationship between pesticide usage and climate change Climatic Change v 50 no 4 p 475ndash487

(54) Archambault DJ Li X Robinson DOrsquoDonovan JT and Klein KK (2002) Theeffects of elevated CO2 and temperature on herbi-cide efficacy and weedcrop competition reportprepared for the Prairie Adaptation ResearchCollaborative (PARC)

(55) Smit B (2000) Agricultural adaptation to climatechange unpublished report prepared for theClimate Change Action Fund

(56) Herrington R Johnson BN and Hunter FG(1997) Responding to global climate change in the Prairies Environment Canada Canada CountryStudy Climate Impacts and Adaptation v III 75 p

(57) Chiotti Q Johnston T Smit B Ebel B andRickard T (1997) Agricultural response to climaticchange a preliminary investigation of farm-leveladaptation in southern Alberta in AgriculturalRestructuring and Sustainability A GeographicalPerspective (ed) B Ilbery and Q ChiottiSustainable Rural Development Series no 3 p 201ndash218

(58) Bryant CR Smit B Brklacich M Smithers JChiotti Q and Singh B (2000) Adaptation inCanadian agriculture to climatic variability andchange Climatic Change v 45 no 1 p 181ndash201

(59) Dzikowski P (2001) Adaptation and risk manage-ment strategies for agriculture in Risks andOpportunities from Climate Change for theAgricultural Sector Final Report C-CAIRNAgriculture Workshop March 28 2001

(60) de Jong R Bootsma A Huffman T and RoloffG (1999) Crop yield variability under climatechange and adaptive crop management scenariosfinal project report submitted to the ClimateChange Action Fund

(61) Skinner MW Smit B Dolan AH Bradshaw Band Bryant CR (2001) Adaptation options to climate change in Canadian agriculture an inventory and typology University of GuelphDepartment of Geography Occasional Paper 25 36 p

(62) Dolan AH Smit B Skinner MW Bradshaw Band Bryant CR (2001) Adaptation to climatechange in agriculture evaluation of optionsUniversity of Guelph Department of GeographyOccasional Paper 26 51 p

(63) de Loeuml R Kreutzwiser R and Moraru L (1999)Climate change and the Canadian water sectorimpacts and adaptation unpublished report preparedfor Natural Resources Canada May 1999

(64) Gan TY (2000) Reducing vulnerability of waterresources of the Canadian Prairies to potentialdroughts and possible climatic warming WaterResources Management v 14 no 2 p 111ndash135

(65) Wadsworth R and Swetnam R (1998) Modellingthe impact of climate warming at the landscapescale will bench terraces become economically andecologically viable structures under changed cli-mates Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment v 68 no 1ndash2 p 27ndash39


(66) Cohen RDH Sykes CD Wheaton EE andStevens JP (2002) Evaluation of the effects ofclimate change on forage and livestock productionand assessment of adaptation strategies on theCanadian Prairies report submitted to the PrairieAdaptation Research Collaborative (PARC)

(67) Rounsevell MDA Evans SP and Bullock P(1999) Climate change and agricultural soilsimpacts and adaptation Climatic Change v 43 p 683ndash709

(68) Matson PA Parton WJ Power AG and SwiftMJ (1997) Agricultural intensification and ecosys-tem properties Science v 277 p 504ndash509

(69) Campbell CA Zentner RP Gameda S BlomertB and Wall DD (2002) Production of annual cropson the Canadian Prairies trends during 1976ndash1998Canadian Journal of Soil Science v 82 p 45ndash57

(70) Smithers J and Smit B (1997) Human adaptationto climatic variability and change GlobalEnvironmental Change v 73 no 3 p129ndash146

(71) Lewandrowski J and Schimmelpfennig D (1999)Economic implications of climate change for USagriculture assessing recent evidence LandEconomics v 75 no 1 p 39ndash57

(72) Brklacich M McNabb D Bryant C Dumanski JIlbery B Chiotti Q and Rickard T (1997)Adaptability of agricultural systems to global climatechange a Renfrew County Ontario Canada pilotstudy in Agricultural Restructuring andSustainability A Geographical Perspective (ed) BIlbery and Q Chiotti Sustainable Rural DevelopmentSeries no 3 p 185ndash200

(73) Andreacute P and Bryant C (2001) Les producteursagricoles face aux changements climatiques une eacutevaluation des strategies drsquoinvestissement des producteurs de la Monteacutereacutegie-ouest (Queacutebec)Rapport de recherche preacutesenteacute au Fonds drsquoactionpour le changement climatique

(74) Bennett J (2002) Climate change and agriculture in the Prairies paper presented at Climate ChangeImpacts and Adaptation on the Prairie ProvincesSynthesis Workshop March 21ndash22 2002 ReginaSaskatchewan

Forestry

Canada contains more than 400 million hectares of forested land which accounts for almost half of our total landmass and approximately one-tenthof the worldrsquos total forest cover(1) As such forestsare a vital component of our countryrsquos economyand culture Boreal forests are the dominant foresttype spanning the complete width of the country(Figure 1)

Many communities across Canada are highly relianton the forestry sector which provided directemployment for over 370 000 Canadians in 2000(1)

Approximately 51 of Canadarsquos 2345 millionhectares of commercial forest (land capable of producing commercial tree species that can be sus-tainably harvested) are currently managed fortimber production(1) Each year about one million

ldquoFor centuries forests have been an intrinsic feature

of Canadarsquos society culture and economy and they

will continue to be an immensely important part of

our livesrdquo(1)

F O R E S T R Y 73

FIGURE 1 Distribution of forest types in Canada(1)


hectares of this commercial forestland are harvest-ed primarily to manufacture lumber plywoodveneer wood pulp and newsprint(1) Non-wood forest products also contribute to the Canadianeconomy

Forests also impart numerous non-market benefitsThey provide aesthetic value and are important for many recreational activities such as campinghiking and snowmobiling Forests also reduce soil erosion improve air and water quality andprovide habitat for over 90 000 different species of plants animals and micro-organisms(1)

Furthermore forests are a vital component of aboriginal culture and heritage providing food medicinal plants and resources for manyFirst Nations and Meacutetis communities

Climate is one of many variables that affect forest distribution health and productivity and has a strong influence on disturbance regimesAccording to the Third Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)globally averaged surface air temperatures are projected to increase by 14ndash58degC by the year2100(2) with significant consequences for most elements of the global climate system The netimpact of such climate changes on forestry and forest-dependent communities in Canada would be a function of a wide range of biophysical andsocio-economic impacts that would be both positiveand negative To date research in Canada andinternationally has tended to focus primarily on theresponse of individual species and ecosystems tochanging climate In contrast the potential socialand economic implications of climate change forthe Canadian forest sector have received far lessattention Reflecting these trends this reviewemphasizes the potential biophysical impacts of climate change on forests while recognizing theimportance of expanding our capacity to addresssocio-economic impacts as well

In addition to changes in the climate forests willalso be stressed by other factors such as land coverand land use changes related to both human activ-ity and natural processes When these variables areconsidered in conjunction with limitations imposedby the uncertainties of climate models especially

regarding future changes in precipitation patternsit is difficult to project the impacts of climatechange on forests at the regional and local levelsAlthough research is ongoing to address theseissues understanding the vulnerability of bothforests and forestry practices to climate change is essential for forestry management planningAppropriate adaptation will help reduce the nega-tive impacts of climate change while allowing the forest sector to take advantage of any newopportunities that may be presented

Previous Work

ldquoClimate change has the potential to enormously

influence the future health of Canadarsquos forested

ecosystemsrdquo(3)

In their summary of research as part of the CanadaCountry Study Saporta et al(4) concluded that climate change would have a range of impacts onCanadian forests They summarized that highertemperatures would generally improve growthrates while an increase in the frequency andseverity of moisture stress and forest disturbanceswould create problems in some areas Elevatedatmospheric CO2 concentrations may also affectforests by improving the efficiency of water use by some plants which could lead to increases inforest productivity The actual nature and magni-tude of the impacts will vary depending on suchfactors as forest type location and species charac-teristics For example forests in continental areasare expected to experience increased droughtstress whereas increased wind and storm damageare likely in coastal regions

The rate and nature of projected climatic changeswill be important especially with respect to shifts in species distributions As temperature increasesspecies are expected to migrate northward and tohigher altitudes Species located near the southernedges of their current range and those with poor dis-persal mechanisms would be the most threatened bythese migrations and local extinctions are possible

The forestry industry would need to adapt its opera-tions to deal with the changing conditions Newtechnologies introduction of new tree species andrelocation of forestry operations are potential adap-tation options The rate magnitude and location ofclimate change would greatly influence the successof these adaptations

Impacts

Impacts on Forest Growth and Health

ldquoChanges in climatic conditions affect all productivity

indicators of forests and their ability to supply goods

and services to human economiesrdquo(5)

Researchers expect that even small changes in temperature and precipitation could greatly affectfuture forest growth and survival(6) especially atecosystem margins and threshold areas Over thelast century Canada has warmed by an average of1degC(7) During the same time period plant growth at mid to high latitudes (45degN and 70degN) hasincreased and the growing season has lengthened(8)

Historic warming has also had an impact on treephenology For example in Edmonton Albertatrembling aspen has begun to bloom 26 days earlierover the past 100 years(9) and the bud break ofwhite spruce in Ontario appears to be occurringearlier(10) Plant hardiness zones also appear tohave shifted in response to recent changes in cli-mate with the most significant changes occurringin western Canada (Figure 2)(11)

F O R E S T R Y 75

FIGURE 2 Changes in plant hardiness between 1930ndash1960 and 1961ndash1990 (modified from reference 11)

Lower

Unchanged

Higher

Analysis not undertakenfor northern territories


Climate models project that future warming will be greatest during the winter months This trend isevident in the historic climate record for most ofthe country For example over the past centurywinter temperatures in the Canadian Rockies havewarmed about twice as much as spring and sum-mer temperatures(12) Higher temperatures in thewinter would have both positive effects on forestssuch as decreased winter twig breakage(13) andnegative effects such as increased risk of frostdamage(10) Although warmer winters wouldincrease the over-winter survival of some insectpests reduced snow cover could increase the winter mortality of others(14)

Higher winter temperatures may also increase the frequency and duration of midwinter thawswhich could lead to increased shoot damage andtree dieback (references 15 and 16 see Box 1) A decrease in snow cover could further increasetree dieback due to frost-heaving seedling uplift(17)

and increased exposure of roots to thaw-freezeevents(18)

Climate change would impact future moisture condi-tions in forests through changes in both temperatureand precipitation patterns As the temperatureincreases water loss through evapotranspirationincreases resulting in drier conditions Higher tem-peratures also tend to decrease the efficiency ofwater use by plants In some areas of Canada futureincreases in precipitation would help offset dryingcaused by higher temperatures(20) In other regionshowever decreases in precipitation will accentuatethe moisture stress caused by warming Changes inthe seasonality of precipitation and the occurrenceof extreme events such as droughts and heavy rainfalls will also be important For example tree-ring analysis of aspen poplar in western Canadarevealed that reduced ring growth was associatedwith drought events whereas growth peaks followedperiods of cool moist conditions(18)

Forest characteristics and age-class structure alsoaffect how forests respond to changes in moistureconditions Mature forests have well-establishedroot systems and are therefore less sensitive tochanges in moisture than younger forests and post-disturbance stands at least in the short term(5)

In addition certain tree species and varieties aremore moisture or drought tolerant than others

BOX 1 Are winter thaws a threat to yellow birch(19)

In the past large-scale declines of yellow birchhave been documented in eastern Canada Studiesindicate that winter thaws and late spring frostsmay partially explain the diebacks Winter thawsdecrease the cold hardiness of birch therebyincreasing the vulnerability of the affected treesThe effect of a winter thaw on birch seedlings isshown in the photograph below Winter thaw eventscan also cause breakdowns in the xylem of yellowbirch making it more difficult for water to passfrom the roots to the branches Future climatechanges are expected to result in more frequentand prolonged winter thaws and the likelihoodthat birch dieback may worsen

Photo courtesy of RM Cox

The effect of thaw on shoot dieback The top photois the control (not exposed to thaw) whereas thebottom photo shows yellow birch seedlings thatwere exposed to thaw

F O R E S T R Y 77

For example bur oak and white fir are better able totolerate drought conditions than most tree types(21)

While numerous studies have investigated theimpacts of elevated CO2 on forest growth andhealth the results are neither clear nor conclu-sive(5) Although researchers generally agree thathigher CO2 concentrations improve the efficiencyof water use by some plants (at elevated CO2 con-centrations plants open their stomata less thusreducing water loss through transpiration) diverseresults have been found concerning the overalleffects on plant growth For example higher CO2

concentrations have been found to increase thegrowth of various types of poplar(22 23) but havelittle to no effect on the growth of Douglas fir(24)

aspen and sugar maple(25) The differing resultsbetween studies could relate to the species stud-ied individual tree age the length of the studyperiod and differences in methodology It is alsoimportant to note that some researchers suggestthat any positive response of plants to enhancedCO2 concentrations may decrease over time asplants acclimatize to elevated CO2 levels(5)

The uncertainties concerning how trees will respondto elevated CO2 concentrations make it challengingto incorporate this factor into impact assessmentsAdditional complications arise from the possibilitythat other anthropogenic emissions will affect forestgrowth For example ozone (O3) a pollutant thatcauses visible damage to tree species(26) has beenshown to offset the potential benefits of CO2 on treeproductivity(26 27) On the other hand some suggestthat nitrogen oxides which are released throughfossil fuel combustion and high-intensity agricul-ture may lead to enhanced forest growth(28)

especially in nitrogen-limited ecosystems Anotherstudy found that these growth enhancement factors(eg CO2 fertilization nitrogen deposition) actuallyhad minimal influence on plant growth relative toother factors particularly land use(29)

Overall the impacts of climate change on forestgrowth and health will vary on a regional basis and will be influenced by species composition siteconditions and local microclimate(12) In the aspenforests of western Canada forest productivity mayincrease due to longer frost-free periods and elevatedCO2 concentrations(18) although an accompanyingincrease in drought stress could create problems

Productivity in northeastern Ontario may alsoincrease under the combined effects of higher temperatures increased precipitation and a longer growing season(30) In contrast someresearchers suggest that climate warming could have a negative impact on the physiology and health of forest ecosystems in the Great LakesndashSt Lawrence region(31)

Impacts on Tree Species Migrations and Ecosystem Shifts

ldquoOur forest ecosystems will be in a state of

transition in response to the changing climate

with primarily negative impactsrdquo(32)

Climate change may result in sometimes subtleand non-linear shifts in species distributions(5) Asconditions change individual tree species wouldrespond by migrating as they have in response topast changes in climate There is concern how-ever that the rapid rate of future climate changewill challenge the generation and dispersal abilitiesof some tree species(3334) Successful migrationmay be impeded by additional stresses such asbarriers to dispersion (habitat fragmentation) and competition from exotic species(35 36 37) andchanges in the timing and rate of seed productionmay limit migration rates(34)

It is generally hypothesized that trees will migratenorthward and to higher altitudes as the climatewarms The warming of the last 100 years hascaused the treeline to shift upslope in the centralCanadian Rockies(12) Temperature however is not the sole control on species distribution andtemperature changes cannot be considered in isolation Other factors including soil characteris-tics nutrient availability and disturbance regimesmay prove to be more important than temperaturein controlling future ecosystem dynamics Thesouthern limit of the boreal forest for exampleappears to be influenced more by interspeciescompetition(38) and moisture conditions(39) than by temperature tolerance The distribution of trembling aspen in western Canada is also largelycontrolled by moisture conditions(40)


Predictions of future changes in species distributionsare exceedingly complicated and results from avail-able studies vary greatly Predictions of migrationrates in northern forests by 11 leading ecologistsvaried by more than four orders of magnitude(41)

This could be related to the fact that predictions areoften derived from models which require a numberof assumptions to be made For example manymodels assume that seeds of all species are uni-formly available and that environmental conditionsdo not fluctuate between regions leading to overes-timation of future species diversity and migrationrates(42) Models also generally do not account forthe potential role of humans in assisting speciesmigrations Model projections should therefore be viewed as indicative of trends rather than conclusive of magnitude(43)

Some key results of recent studies that combinedhistorical trends or climate simulations withecosystem models are listed in Table 1

It is important to note that species will respondindividually to climate change and that ecosystemswill not shift as cohesive units The most vulnerablespecies are expected to be those with narrow tem-perature tolerances slow growth characteristics(49)

and limiting dispersal mechanisms such as heavyseeds(45) For example since trembling aspen hasbetter seed dispersal mechanisms than red oak andjack pine(50) it may be more successful at migratingin response to climate change Differing speciesrsquoresponse to anthropogenic emissions may also affectcompetitive ability(51) with potentially significantimpacts on forest ecosystem functioning(49)

TABLE 1 Recent research results of forest migrations

Region Scenario Key predictions

Western North America(44) 1year compound increase in CO2 bull Shifts in ranges in all directions (NESW)bull Significant ecosystem impactsbull Changes in species diversity

Ontario(45) 2xCO2 scenario bull Great Lakes forest types will occupy most of central Ontario

bull Pyrophilic species (eg jack pine and aspen) will become more common

bull Minimal old-growth forest will remainbull Local extinctions will occur

Central Canadian treeline(46) Gradual warming (based on bull Initial increase in growth and recruitmenthistorical analysis) bull Significant time lag between warming and

northward expansion of boreal forest

New England US(47) 2xCO2 scenario bull Stable ecotone with no diebackbull Northward ecotone migration at a rate of less

than 100 m per 100 years

Northern Wisconsin US(48) Gradual warming over next 100 years bull Loss of boreal forest species in 200ndash300 years

Eastern US(35) 2xCO2 scenarios bull Dramatic changes in forest type distributionbull Loss of spruce fir forest types in New Englandbull Large decline in maple-beech-birch forestsbull Large increase in oak-pine forest types

F O R E S T R Y 79

Impacts on Disturbances

ldquoIncreases in disturbances such as insect infesta-

tions and fires can lead to rapid structural and

functional changes in forestsrdquo(5)

Each year approximately 05 of Canadarsquos forestsare severely affected by disturbances such as fireinsects and disease(1) These disturbances are oftenstrongly influenced by weather conditions and aregenerally expected to increase in the future inresponse to projected climate change(4)

Cumulative impacts arising from the interactionsbetween disturbances are likely For example anincrease in drought stress is expected to increasethe occurrence and magnitude of insect and diseaseoutbreaks(30) Similarly an increase in defoliationby insect outbreaks could increase the likelihood of wildfire(52) The interaction between fire andspruce budworm in Ontario is described in Box 2In addition to tree damage changes in the distur-bance regime would have long-term consequencesfor forest ecosystems such as modifying the agestructure and composition of plant populations(30)

Forest Fires

ldquoIn most regions there is likely to be an increased

risk of forest fireshelliprdquo(5)

Forest fires are a natural occurrence and necessaryfor the health of many forest ecosystems Indeedwithout fire certain tree species and ecosystems of the boreal forest could not persist(54) Howeverfires can also lead to massive forest and propertydamage smoke and ash generated by fires can create health problems both locally and at greatdistances and evacuations forced by fires have a wide range of social and economic impactsAverage annual property losses from forest firesexceeded $7 million between 1990 and 2000 whilefire protection costs average over $400 million per year(55)

Studies generally agree that both fire frequency in the boreal forest and the total area burned have increased in the last 20 to 40 years(56 57 58)

There is however less agreement among studiesthat examine longer term records with bothdecreases(5960) and increases(61) reported reflectingdifferences in location timeframes and studymethodologies It is also important to note that

BOX 2 Interactions between spruce budworm andwildfire in Ontario(53)

Wildfires and spruce budworm (SBW) outbreaksare widespread disturbances in the boreal forestFleming et al(53) examined historical records toinvestigate the interactions between these dis-turbances in Ontario and estimate how they will be affected by future climate changes Sprucebudworm outbreaks are thought to increase theoccurrence of wildfires by increasing the volume of dead tree matter which acts as fuel for firesThe researchers documented a disproportionatenumber of wildfires occurring 3 to 9 years follow-ing spruce budworm outbreaks with the trendbeing more pronounced in drier regions such as western Ontario where wood fuels tend todecompose more slowly The study concluded that drier conditions induced by climate changewould cause wildfires to increase in stands with SBW defoliation as well as increase the frequency and intensity of SBW outbreaks

Image courtesy of T Arcand Laurentian Forestry CentreCanadian Forest Service

Spruce budworm dorso-lateral view of mature larva


although large fires (over 1 000 hectares) accountfor only 14 of forest fires in Canada they areresponsible for 931 of the total area burned(55)

Hence caution is required when trying to comparestudies examining changes in fire frequency andarea burned

Fire season severity is generally projected to increasein the future due to climate change (Table 2) Reasonsfor the increase include a longer fire season drierconditions and more lightning storms(62 63)

TABLE 2 Forest fire predictions

Region Prediction

Eastern boreal bull Fewer forest fires in futureforest(59) (based on historical analysis)

Canada(64) bull Increase in forest fire dangerbull Great regional variability(based on Forest Fire Weather Index)

Western Canada(58) bull Increase in strength and extent of fires

(based on RCM1 projections)

North America(65) bull General increase in forest fire activity

bull Little change or even a decrease in some regions

(based on GCM 2xCO2 projection)

Alberta(66) bull Increase in fire frequency(based on GCM 2xCO2 projection)

Southwestern boreal bull Decrease in fire frequencyforest Quebec(67) (based on GCM 2xCO2 projection)

Ontario(68) bull Increase in forest fire frequency and severity

(based on Forest Fire Weather Index)

Canada(62) bull Increase in fire activitybull Longer fire seasonbull Increase in area of extreme

fire danger(based on GCM 2xCO2 projection)

1 RCM regional climate model

There is relatively high uncertainty associatedwith most studies of climate change and forestfires due largely to our limited understanding offuture changes in precipitation patterns Where

precipitation increases forest fire frequency mayexperience little change or even decrease(3) It hasalso been shown that warm weather and dry con-ditions do not necessarily lead to a bad forest fireseason This was exemplified in 2001 despite theextreme heat and dryness wildfire frequency wasdown and total area burned was the lowest onrecord(69) Vegetation type will influence changesin future fire frequency and intensity For exampleconifers are more likely to experience intense firesthan are deciduous or mixed-wood stands Hencespecies migrations in response to changing climatewould also affect future fire behaviour by changingthe fuel types(70) Some other factors that influencefire seasons include wind lightning frequencyantecedent moisture conditions and fire manage-ment mechanisms

Insect Outbreaks

Insect outbreaks are a major problem across

Canada with resulting timber losses estimated

to exceed those from fire(71)

In certain regions defoliation by pests representsthe most important factor controlling tree growth(72)

The response of insects to climate change isexpected to be rapid such that even small climaticchanges can have a significant impact Insectshave short life cycles high mobility and highreproductive potentials all of which allow them to quickly exploit new conditions and take advan-tage of new opportunities(14)

Higher temperatures will generally benefit insectsby accelerating development expanding currentranges and increasing over-winter survival rates(14)

For example insect pests that are not currently aproblem in much of Canada may migrate north-ward in a warmer climate Warmer conditions mayalso shorten the outbreak cycles of species such asthe jack pine budworm resulting in more frequentoutbreaks(73) and increase the survival of pests likethe mountain pine beetle that are killed off by verycold weather in the late fall and early spring(74)

However an increase in extreme weather eventsmay reduce insect survival rates(14) as may adecrease in winter snow cover

F O R E S T R Y 81

Climate change would also have indirect effects onforest disturbance by pests For example extendeddrought conditions may increase the sensitivity oftrees to insect defoliation(3) as would ecosysteminstability caused by species migrations Projectedincreases in anthropogenic emissions (eg CO2 O3)may further reduce tree defences against insects anddiseases(75 26) Climate change may also affect insectoutbreaks by altering the abundance of insect ene-mies mutualists and competitors For examplewarmer weather may have differing effects on thedevelopment rates of hosts and parasitoids(34) aswell as the ranges of predators and prey(76) Thiscould alter ecosystem dynamics by reducing the biological controls on certain pest populations

Extreme Weather

The frequency and severity of extreme weather

events such as heavy winds winter storms

and lightning are projected to increase due

to climate change

The impact of extreme climate events on forestsand the forest sector was clearly demonstrated by the 1998 ice storm that hit eastern Ontariosouthern Quebec and parts of the MaritimeProvinces Damage from the ice storm in areas of Quebec was comparable to that of the mostdestructive windstorms and hurricanes recordedanywhere(77) Long-term economic impacts havebeen evident in the maple sugar industry withalmost 70 of the Canadian production regionaffected by the storm(78) Researchers are stillworking to quantify the actual costs(79) Ice stormsare not uncommon events but the intensity duration and extent of the January 1998 event was exceptional(78) Nonetheless such storms may become more frequent in association withmilder winters in the future(3)

Wind damage can result from specific events suchas tornadoes and downbursts or from heavy windsduring storms In the Great Lakes area downburstsare a key wind disturbance that can affect thousandsof hectares with both immediate and long-termimpacts(80) Heavy winds can also cause large-scale

forest destruction through blowdown For examplea heavy storm in New Brunswick in 1994 felled 30 million trees resulting in losses of $100 million(81)

Factors such as tree height whether or not the treeis alive and stand density affect whether a tree isjust snapped or completely uprooted by heavywinds(82) Wind events may also have conse-quences for other forest disturbances such as firesand insect outbreaks For example researchershave found that spruce beetle reproduction isfavoured in blowdown patches(83)

A warmer climate may be more conducive toextreme wind events although there is muchuncertainty on this issue(84) Given the localizednature of these events and the fact that wind phenomena are generally poorly understood reliable modelling of the frequency of future wind events is not available at this time(80)

Social and Economic Impacts

The biophysical impacts of climate change onforests will translate into many different social andeconomic impacts (Table 3) which will affect forestcompanies landowners consumers governmentsand the tourism industry(85)

The magnitude of socio-economic impacts such as those listed in Table 3 will depend on 1) thenature and rate of climate change 2) the responseof forest ecosystems 3) the sensitivity of communi-ties to the impacts of climate change and also tomitigation policies introduced to address climatechange 4) the economic characteristics of theaffected communities and 5) the adaptive capacityof the affected group(86)

Exports of forest products are an important component of the Canadian economy valued at$474 billion in 2001(1) A greater degree of warmingat higher latitudes may mean that Canadian forestsexperience greater impacts on productivity as a resultof climate change than forests of many other coun-tries(87) However because of uncertainty regardingthe magnitude and even the direction of many ofthese impacts it is extremely difficult to assessCanadarsquos future competitive ability in internationalmarkets If Canadian forests were to experience faster


tree growth and greater wood supply(88) and global timber shortages occur as predicted due topopulation and economic growth(89) Canadarsquos forestindustry could benefit Climate change may requirechanges in international trade policies and the pric-ing of forest products(90) which are generally basedat present on the assumption of a stable climate

First Nations are extremely concerned about theimpacts of climate change on Canadarsquos forests(91)

Since more than 90 of reserves are located onforested lands forests play a vital economic andcultural role for many First Nations communities(1)

The projected impacts of climate change on forestsespecially with respect to increased disturbancesand species migrations could threaten the sustain-ability of some of these communities

Adaptation

ldquoMany of the forest management activities required

to address climate change are already part of

current actions In the context of climate change

it is the location and intensity of these problems

that will change and challenge the sectorrsquos ability

to cope and adaptrdquo(92)

While individual tree species would respond inde-pendently to climate change through migration andphysiological changes there are many different waysin which the forest sector may adapt Some forestmanagers may take a lsquowait and seersquo approach deal-ing with changes as they occur but a strong casecan and should be made for the importance ofplanned adaptation in which future changes areanticipated and forestry practices (eg silvicultureharvesting) are adjusted accordingly

Anticipatory adaptation takes climate change intoaccount during the planning process It is especiallyimportant when the rotation periods are long(93)

as the species selected for planting today must be able to not only withstand but hopefully thrive infuture climates(94) Although appropriate anticipatoryadaptation should reduce losses from climatechange uncertainties regarding the timing locationand magnitude of future change hinder its inclusionin forestry management(95 96) Uncertainties regard-ing future changes in precipitation patterns and theresultant impacts on productivity and disturbanceregimes are especially challenging To address these issues and encourage the inclusion of climate change into forestry management decisionmaking some suggest the use of model simula-tions(93) whereas others advocate increasedcommunication between researchers and forest managers (see Box 3)

TABLE 3 Examples of socio-economic impacts of climate change(85)

Physical impact Socio-economic impacts

Changes in forest Changes in timber supply andproductivity rent value

Increased atmospheric Introduction of carbon credit-greenhouse gases permit mitigation policies that

create a carbon sequestration market

Increased disturbances Loss of forest stock and non-market goods

Northward shift Change in land values and landof ecozones use options

Change in climate Economic restructuring leadingand ecosystems to social and individual stress

and other social pathologies

Ecosystem and Changes in non-market valuesspecialist species changes

Ecosystem changes Dislocation of parks and natural areas increased land use conflicts

F O R E S T R Y 83

Forest management has a large influence on forestgrowth health and composition(98) Forests that are subject to management activities are generallyconsidered to be less vulnerable to the impacts ofclimate change than forests that are not manageddue to the potential for adaptation(5) Some charac-teristics of managed forests may also render thembetter able to cope with disturbances For exampleduring the 1998 ice storm highly managed fruittrees grown in orchards experienced much lessdamage than less structured stands of sugarmaples(78) Management activities such as the use of subsequent salvage cuttings may also reduce the degree of long-term damage arising from disturbances such as ice storms(99)

Maintaining forest health and biodiversity is animportant adaptation mechanism which buildsupon existing initiatives for sustainable forest

management such as those listed in Table 4Criteria for sustainable forest management as outlined in the Montreacuteal Process of the United Nations Conference on Environment andDevelopment include conservation of biodiversitymaintenance of forest productivity maintenance of forest ecosystem health and conservation of soiland water resources(100) Forests that are managedfor these criteria would generally be less vulnerableto disturbances and hence more resilient to climatechange For example healthy forest stands havebeen shown to exhibit a stronger and faster recoveryfrom insect disturbances than stressed stands(72)

while the conservation of biodiversity and forestintegrity would aid in successful species migrations(43)

TABLE 4 Initiatives for sustainable forest management

Programinitiative Purpose

Canadarsquos National Presents a strategy for achievingForest Strategy sustainable forest management

at the national scale

Canadian Standards Evaluates companies and governmentAssociation Forest agencies with respect to their practiceCertification System of sustainable forest management

Forest Management Commits companies to comply withAgreement agreements that allocate volume and

forest management responsibilities (eg replanting habitat protection)

Sustainable forest management provides a frame-work into which climate change adaptation can beeffectively incorporated Potential impacts of bothclimate change and climate change adaptationscould be assessed with respect to the sustainabilitycriteria described above in much the same way as managers currently evaluate the impacts ofmanagement activities such as harvest schedulesand building roads In this way adaptation optionsfor climate change can be developed to fit withinexisting forest land-use planning systems ratherthan being viewed as a new and separate issue

In some cases to help preserve forest sustainabilityforest managers may assist in tree regenerationRegeneration may involve replanting native tree

BOX 3 Promoting adaptation in the forest industry(97)

Interviews and workshops conducted with repre-sentatives from the forest management sector wereused to determine ways to facilitate adaptation toclimate change Key findings included

bull There is a need for more scientific informationon the impacts of climate change

bull Research results need to be presented at scales(both space and time) that are relevant to forestmanagement planning

bull Mechanisms for communicating climate changeinformation are required

bull Forest managers must be involved in determiningadaptation options

The overwhelming message was a need for improvedcommunication between the scientific research andforest management communities This is consideredcritical to facilitating development of effectiveadaptation strategies


species or introducing new species includingexotics and hybrids It has been suggested thatassisted regeneration could be used in the south-ern boreal forests of western Canada if drierconditions hinder the ability of conifers to regen-erate naturally(101) In beach pine forests of BritishColumbia genotypes may also need to be redis-tributed across the landscape in order to maintainforest productivity in the future(6) There are manyissues related to the use of non-native species themost important of which concerns the potential forunforeseen consequences such as accompanyingpest problems or loss of native species due to newcompetitive interactions

Forest managers may also assist in the migration of forests by introducing carefully selected treespecies to regions beyond their current ranges Incases such as the Boreal Transition Ecozone forestsmay prove to be an ecologically and economicallyviable alternative to marginally productive agri-culture(102) New forest cover in this area may beestablished through either natural forest successionor planting of commercial tree species(102) Similarto human-assisted regeneration there are manyconcerns regarding assisted migration due largelyto the potential for unpredictable outcomes

In some cases biotechnology may play an impor-tant role in adaptation to climate change Forexample by adding or removing one or moregenes from a species scientists can develop strainsthat are better adapted to specific conditions such as droughts and more resistant to potentialthreats including insect outbreaks and diseases(103)

Plant hybrids can also be developed with thesegoals in mind Hybrid poplars have been success-fully introduced in western Canada(104)

Dealing with Disturbances

ldquoLosses due to possible forest decline and modified

fire and insect regimes as well as drought stress in

some areas could challenge the adaptive capacity

of the industryrdquo(92)

Adjusting to shifts in disturbance regimes may bean important aspect of climate change adaptationAlthough focus is generally placed on an increased

frequency of disturbances a decrease in disturbanceswould also require adaptation For example a longerfire cycle in eastern Canada would increase theamount of overmature and old-growth stands whichwould require alternative management practices(59)

Where fire frequency increases protection prioritiesmay require adjustments so that burns are preventedfrom damaging smaller high-value areas(62) Recentwork conducted in the Prairie Provinces promotesprotection of such areas through the use of lsquofire-smart landscapesrsquo (see Box 4) Increased monitoringimproved early warning systems enhancing forestrecovery after fire disturbances and the use of prescribed burning are other adaptation options to deal with changes in forest fire regimes(105)

Prescribed burning has also been recommended asone potential adaptation option for reducing forestvulnerability to increased insect outbreaks(105)

Several other methods to address future insect out-breaks have also been suggested For examplenonchemical insecticides can be applied to reduceleaf mortality from insects thereby allowing thetrees to still be harvested at a later date(107)

Another nonchemical insect control option beinginvestigated is the use of baculoviruses Theseviruses attack specific pest species such as thespruce budworm with minimal consequences forother species and the environment(108) Adjustingharvesting schedules so that those stands mostvulnerable to insect defoliation would be harvestedpreferentially represents yet another method foraddressing increased insect outbreaks(107)

Changes in forest fire regimes as a result of climatechange would necessitate adjustments in firemanagement systems Future changes in fire occur-rence would affect budgets staffing technologiesequipment needs warning mechanisms and moni-toring systems(105) Anticipating these changes andincreasing interagency cooperation could help tominimize costs and ease the transitions

Studies on the impacts of past extreme climateevents as well as the response of the forestry sectorto these events can assist in understanding andimproving the degree of preparedness for the futureFor example researchers are investigating how themanagement of woodlots and plantations can beused to reduce vulnerability to ice storms(79) andare developing decision-support tools to assist forestmanagers in dealing with damaged tree stands(109)

F O R E S T R Y 85

Social Economic and PoliticalConsiderations

In evaluating adaptation options it is necessary toconsider the social economic and political implica-tions of each adaptation For example althoughrelocation of forestry operations in response tospecies migrations is commonly cited as an appro-priate adaptation option several factors may limit itsfeasibility Communities especially First Nations andMeacutetis tend to have cultural and economic ties to theland and may be unwilling or unable to relocate Inaddition moving industrial infrastructure and entirecommunities would be expensive with no guaranteeof subsequent profits or that cultural ties to the landwould persist in the same way Furthermore policies

and agreements limit the mobility of many aborigi-nal communities potentially limiting the viabilityof relocation as an adaptation option(85)

An important component of adaptation is deter-mining who will do the adapting The forestindustry different levels of governments commu-nities and individuals would all need to adjusttheir practices to deal with the impacts of climatechange on forests As these groups will perceiveclimate change risks and their adaptive capacity in different ways adaptive responses will vary In some cases differing perceptions of risk andadaptation may lead to increased tension betweenthe various groups Conflicting priorities and mandates could also lead to future problems

BOX 4 Reducing fire extent with fire-smart landscapes(106)

Many studies suggest that forest fires will increase in future due to climate change To reduce fire-related losses in the forestry industry Hirsch et al(106) advocate the incorporation of lsquofire-smart landscapesrsquo into long-term forestmanagement planning Fire-smart landscapes use forest management activities such as harvesting regenerationand stand tending to reduce the intensity and spread of wildfire as well as fire impacts For example species with low flammability (eg aspen) could be planted adjacent to stands of highly flammable valuable and highlyproductive conifers to protect them from large burns Model simulations suggest that such treatments could substantially reduce the size of forest fires

Size of three simulated fires on current (left) and hypothetical fuel treatment landscape (right) after a 22-hour fire run Note the reduction in area burned using the lsquofire-smartrsquo management approach

In addition to reducing losses from forest fires the study suggests that these fuel treatments may also increasethe total annual allowable cut


Before implementing adaptation options thepotential impacts on all stakeholders need to beconsidered For example although introducingexotic commercial tree species or hybrids may be desirable to address some climate changeimpacts it may not be considered socially andor ethically acceptable among some or all of the stakeholders involved


To date climate change research in Canada relatedto forestry has focused primarily on biophysicalimpacts such as growth rates disturbanceregimes and ecosystem dynamics Much lessattention has been devoted to socio-economicimpacts and the ability of forest managers toadapt to climate change Canadian studies thathave examined adaptation to climate change inthe forestry sector emphasize the importance ofinvolving forest managers and other stakeholdersthroughout the research project and ensuring that study results are released in formats that are relevant and useful for forest managers Thisincludes developing recommendations at theappropriate spatial and temporal scales

Research needs identified within the literature citedin this chapter include the following

Impacts1) Studies on the long-term interactive effects

of climate and other environmental changes on forests

2) Better understanding of the capability of treespecies to respond to change through migrationand the potential consequences for ecosystemdynamics communities and the forest industry

3) Additional work on disturbance regimes includ-ing the interactive impacts of disturbances (eg fire and pests) and the incorporation ofthese impacts into models

4) Impacts of climate change on biodiversity andthe role of biodiversity in ecosystem functions

5) Increased understanding of the potential rangeof impacts on market and non-market forestvalues the critical thresholds for change and the linkages between science policy andforest management

6) The development of methodologies to synthesizeand integrate results of research on the impactsof climate change on forests

Adaptation1) Improved understanding of the impacts of

active forest management on ecosystems such as the effects of reintroducing species to disturbed ecosystems

2) Studies focusing on the social and economicimpacts of different adaptation options

3) Studies that explore options to reduce bothshort- and long-term vulnerability of forests to fire and insect disturbances

4) Improved understanding of the adaptive capacityof forest managers and other stakeholders aswell as factors that influence decision making

5) Research on new opportunities for forestrysuch as enhancing the commercial value offorests in northern areas and the potential role of biotechnology

6) Studies on how climate change can be betterincorporated into long-term forest planningincluding improved communication of knowl-edge and research

F O R E S T R Y 87

Conclusion

Climate change can cause fundamental changes in forest ecosystem dynamics However results ofnumerous studies examining the impact of climatechange on forests vary greatly depending on thefactors considered and the assumptions made Forexample studies that incorporate higher tempera-tures enhanced CO2 concentrations and increasedprecipitation tend to project increased forest pro-ductivity If increased disturbances (fires insectoutbreaks) and the ecosystem instability inducedby species migrations are included in the studynegative impacts are usually suggested

In addition to the direct and indirect impacts ofclimate change on forests other factors such asland use changes will affect the ability of bothforests and the forest industry to adapt To assess

overall vulnerability all these factors need to beconsidered as should the capacity to implementadaptation options Due to uncertainties in climatemodels and our incomplete understanding ofecosystem processes it is unlikely that precisepredictions of climate change impacts on forestryare attainable This does not constrain our abilityto adapt but instead emphasizes the need tomaintain or increase forest resiliency Climatechange should be incorporated into long-term forest planning so that potential mismatchesbetween species and future climatic and distur-bance regimes are minimized These measureswill assist in reducing the vulnerability of foreststo climate change


References


(1) Natural Resources Canada (2001) State of Canadarsquosforests 2000ndash2001 forests in the new millenniumCanadian Forest Service Ottawa Ontario 120 pavailable on-line at httpwwwnrcangccacfs-scfnationalwhat-quoisofsof01index_ehtml(accessed July 2002)

(2) Albritton DL and Filho LGM (2001) Technicalsummary in Climate Change 2001 The ScientificBasis (ed) JT Houghton Y Ding DJ Griggs M Noguer PJ van der Linden X Dai K Maskelland CA Johnson contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeCambridge University Press p 21ndash84 also availableon-line at httpwwwipccchpubreportshtm(accessed July 2002)


(4) Saporta R Malcolm JR and Martell DL (1998)The impact of climate change on Canadian forestsin Responding to Global Climate Change NationalSectoral Issue (ed) G Koshida and W AvisEnvironment Canada Canada Country StudyClimate Impacts and Adaptation v VII p 319ndash382

(5) Gitay H Brown S Easterling W and Jallow B(2001) Ecosystems and their goods and services in Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation andVulnerability (ed) JJ McCarthy OF CanzianiNA Leary DJ Dokken and KS White contribu-tion of Working Group II to the Third AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange Cambridge University Press p 735ndash800also available on-line at httpwwwipccchpubreportshtm (accessed July 2002)

(6) Rehfeldt GE Ying CC Spittlehouse DL andHamilton DA Jr (1999) Genetic responses to climate in Pinus contorta niche breadth climatechange and reforestation Ecological Monographs v 69 no 3 p 375ndash407

(7) Environment Canada (2001) Climate trends available on-line at httpwwwmsc-smcecgccaccrmbulletinannual01indexhtml (accessed July 2002)

(8) Myneni RB Keeling CD Tucker CJ Asrar Gand Nemani RR (1997) Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981ndash1991Nature v 386 p 698ndash702

(9) Beaubien EG and Freeland HJ (2000) Springphenology trends in Alberta Canada links to ocean temperature International Journal ofBiometeorology v 44 no 2 p 53ndash59

(10) Colombo SJ (1998) Climatic warming and itseffect on bud burst and risk of frost damage to white spruce in Canada Forestry Chronicle v 74no 4 p 567ndash577

(11) McKenney DW Hutchinson MF Kesteven JLand Venier LA (2001) Canadarsquos plant hardinesszones revisited using modern climate interpolationtechniques Canadian Journal of Plant Science v 81no 1 p 117ndash129

(12) Luckman B and Kavanagh T (2000) Impact of climate fluctuations on mountain environments inthe Canadian Rockies Ambio v 29 no 7 p 371ndash380

(13) Lieffers SM Lieffers VJ Silins U and Bach L(2001) Effects of cold temperatures on breakage oflodgepole pine and white spruce twigs CanadianJournal of Forest Research v 31 no 9 p 1650ndash1653

(14) Ayres MP and Lombardero MJ (2000) Assessingthe consequences of global change for forest distur-bance from herbivores and pathogens The Scienceof the Total Environment v 262 no 3 p 263ndash286

(15) Zhu XB Cox RM Bourque CPA and Arp P A(2002) Thaw effects on cold-hardiness parameters in yellow birch Canadian Journal of Botany v 80p 390ndash398

(16) Cox RM and Malcolm JW (1997) Effects of winterthaw on birch die-back and xylem conductivity anexperimental approach with Betula papyrifera LTree Physiology v 17 p 389ndash396

(17) Bergsten U Goulet F Lundmark T and OttossonLoumlfvenius M (2001) Frost heaving in a boreal soilin relation to soil scarification and snow coverCanadian Journal of Forest Research v 31 no 6 p 1084ndash1092

(18) Hogg EH Brandt JP and Kochtubajda B(2001) Responses of western Canadian aspenforests to climate variation and insect defoliationduring the period 1950ndash2000 unpublished reportNatural Resources Canada Climate Change Action Fund

(19) Cox RM and Arp PA (2001) Using winter climatic data to estimate spring crown dieback in yellow birch a case study to project extent and locations of past and future birch declineunpublished report Natural Resources CanadaClimate Change Action Fund

(20) Price DT Peng CH Apps MJ and HalliwellDH (1999) Simulating effects of climate change onboreal ecosystem carbon pools in central CanadaJournal of Biogeography v 26 no 6 p 1237ndash1248

(21) Maynard BK (2001) List of sustainable trees andshrubs available on-line at httpwwwurieduresearchsustlandspl1html (accessed July 2002)

F O R E S T R Y 89

(22) Gielen B and Ceulemans R (2001) The likelyimpact of rising atmospheric CO2 on natural and managed Populus a literature reviewEnvironmental Pollution v 115 p 335ndash358

(23) Dickson RE Coleman MD RiemenschneiderDE Isebrands JG Hogan GD and Karnosky DF(1998) Growth of five hybrid poplar genotypesexposed to interacting elevated CO2 and O3Canadian Journal of Forest Research v 28 p 1706ndash1716

(24) Olszyk D Wise C VanEss E and Tingey D(1998) Elevated temperature but not elevated CO2affects long-term patterns of stem diameter andheight of Douglas-fir seedlings Canadian Journal of Forest Research v 28 p 1046ndash1054

(25) Volin JC Kruger EL and Lindroth RL (2002)Responses of deciduous broadleaf trees to defoliationin a CO2 enriched atmosphere Tree Physiology v 22no 7 p 435ndash448

(26) Karnosky DF Mankovska B Percy K Dickson RE Podila GK Sober J Noormets A Hendrey G Coleman MD Kubiske MPregitzer KS and Isebrands JG (1999) Effects of tropospheric O3 on trembling aspen and interac-tion with CO2 Results from an O3-gradient and aFACE experiment Water Air and Soil Pollution v 116 no 1ndash2 p 311ndash322

(27) Isebrands JG McDonald EP Kruger E Hendrey G Percy K Pregitzer K Sober J and Karnosky DF (2001) Growth responses ofPopulus tremuloides to interacting elevated carbondioxide and tropospheric ozone EnvironmentalPollution v 115 no 3 p 359ndash371

(28) Robinson DE Wagner RG and Swanton CJ(2002) Effects of nitrogen on the growth of jackpine competing with Canada blue grass and large-leaved aster Forest Ecology and Management v 160 no 1 p 233ndash242

(29) Caspersen JP Pacala SW Jenkins JC Hurtt GCMoorcroft PR and Birdsey RA (2000) Contributionsof land-use history to carbon accumulation in USforests Nature v 290 p 1148ndash1151

(30) Colombo SJ Buse LJ Cherry ML Graham CGreifenhagen S McAlpine RS Papadapol CSParker WC Scarr T Ter-Mikaelian MT andFlannigan MD (ed) (1998) The impacts of climatechange on Ontariorsquos forests Ontario Forest ResearchInstitute Forest Research Information Paper v 143no 50 50 p

(31) Papadopol CS (2000) Impacts of climate warming on forests in Ontario options for adaptation and miti-gation Forestry Chronicle v 76 no 1 p 139ndash149

(32) Koshida G and Avis W (1998) Executive SummaryCanada Country Study Volume VII available on-lineat httpwwwecgccaclimateccsexecsum7htm(accessed July 2002)

(33) Kirilenko AP Belotelov NV and Bogatyrev BG(2000) Global model of vegetation migration incor-poration of climatic variability Ecological Modellingv 132 p 125ndash133

(34) Stewart RB Wheaton E and Spittlehouse D(1997) Climate change implications for the Borealforest in Implications of Climate Change What Do We Know Proceedings of Air and Water Waste Management Association SymposiumSeptember 22ndash24 1997 Calgary Alberta 23 p

(35) Iverson LR and Prasad AM (2001) Potentialchanges in tree species richness and forest com-munity types following climate change Ecosystemsv 4 no 3 p 186ndash199

(36) James P (2001) Climate change and fragmentedPrairie biodiversity prediction and adaptationunpublished report prepared for the PrairieAdaptation Research Cooperative (PARC)

(37) Collingham YC and Huntley B (2000) Impacts ofhabitat fragmentation and patch size upon migrationrates Ecological Applications v 10 no 1 p 131ndash144

(38) Loehle C (1998) Height growth rate tradeoffs deter-mine northern and southern range limits for treesJournal of Biogeography v 25 no 4 p 735ndash742

(39) Brooks JR Flanagan LB and Ehleringer JR(1998) Responses of boreal conifers to climate fluctuations indications from tree-ring widths and carbon isotope analyses Canadian Journal of Forest Research v 28 no 4 p 524ndash533

(40) Hogg EH (1999) Simulation of interannualresponses of trembling aspen stands to climatic variation and insect defoliation in western CanadaEcological Modelling v 114 p 175ndash193

(41) Morgan G Pitelka LF and Shevliakova E (2001)Elicitation of expert judgments of climate changeimpacts on forest ecosystems Climatic Change v 49 no 3 p 279ndash307

(42) Price DT Zimmermann NE van der Meer PJLexer MJ Leadley P Jorritsma ITM Schaber JClark DF Lasch P McNulty S Wu J and Smith B (2001) Regeneration in gap models priority issues for studying forest responses to climatechange Climatic Change v 52 no 3ndash4 p 475ndash508

(43) Malcolm JR and Pitelka LF (2000) Ecosystemsand global climate change a review of potentialimpacts on US terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity report prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change available on-line athttpwwwpewclimateorgprojectsenv_ecosystemscfm (accessed June 2002)

(44) Shafer SL Bartlein PJ and Thompson RS(2001) Potential changes in the distributions of western North America tree and shrub taxa under future climate scenarios Ecosystems v 4 p 200ndash215


(45) Thompson ID Flannigan MD Wotton BM andSuffling R (1998) The effects of climate change onlandscape diversity an example in Ontario forestsEnvironmental Monitoring and Assessment v 49no 2ndash3 p 213ndash233

(46) MacDonald GM Szeicz JM Claricoates J andDale K (1998) A response of the central Canadiantreeline to recent climatic changes Annals of theAssociation of American Geographers v 88 no 2p 183ndash208

(47) Loehle C (2000) Forest ecotone response to climatechange sensitivity to temperature response functionalforms Canadian Journal of Forest Research v 30no 10 p 1632ndash1645

(48) Hong SH Mladenoff DJ and Crow TR (1999)Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape modelto study forest species response to climate warmingEcological Modelling v 114 no 2ndash3 p 213ndash233

(49) Kirsch Baum MUF (2000) Forest growth andspecies distribution in a changing climate TreePhysiology v 22 no 5ndash6 p 309ndash322

(50) Cherry ML (1998) Genetic implications of climatechange in The Impacts of Climate Change onOntariorsquos Forests (ed) SJ Colombo and LJ BuseOntario Ministry of Natural Resources ForestResearch Information Paper No 143

(51) Parker WC Colombo SJ Cherry ML Flannigan MD Greifenhagen S McAlpine RSPeng C and Apps MJ (1998) Simulating carbondynamics along the Boreal Forest Transect CaseStudy (BFTCS) in central Canada 2 sensitivity to climate change Global Biogeochemical Cycles v 12 no 2 p 393ndash402

(52) Fleming RA and Candau JN (1998) Influencesof climatic change on some ecological processes of an insect outbreak system in Canadarsquos borealforests and the implications for biodiversityEnvironmental Monitoring and Assessment v 49 no 2ndash3 p 235ndash249

(53) Fleming RA Candau JN and McAlpine RS(2001) Exploratory retrospective analysis of theinteraction between spruce budworm (SBW) andforest fire activity unpublished report NaturalResources Canada Climate Change Action Fund

(54) Weber MG and Stocks BJ (1998) Forest fires andsustainability in the boreal forests of Canada Ambiov 27 no 7 p 545ndash550

(55) Canadian Council of Forest Ministers (2001)Compendium of Canadian forestry statistics available on-line at httpnfdpccfmorgframesinv_ehtm (accessed May 2002)

(56) Schindler DW (1998) A dim future for borealwaters and landscapes BioScience v 48 no 3 p 157ndash164

(57) Kasischke ES Bergen K Fennimore R Sotelo FStephens G Jaentos A and Shugart HH (1999)Satellite imagery gives clear picture of Russiarsquos boreal forest fires Transactions of the AmericanGeophysical Union v 80 p 141ndash147

(58) Stocks BJ (2001) Projecting Canadian forest fire impacts in a changing climate laying thefoundation for the development of sound adapta-tion strategies unpublished report NaturalResources Canada Climate Change Action Fund

(59) Bergeron Y Gauthier S Kafka V Lefort P andLesieur D (2001) Natural fire frequency for theeastern Canadian boreal forest consequences forsustainable forestry Canadian Journal of ForestResearch v 31 no 3 p 384ndash391

(60) Johnson EA Miyanishi K and OrsquoBrien N (1999)Long-term reconstruction of the fire season in themixedwood boreal forest of western Canada CanadianJournal of Botany v 77 no 8 p 1185ndash1188

(61) Podur J Martell DL Knight K (2002) Statisticalquality control analysis of forest fire activity inCanada Canadian Journal of Forest Research v 32 p195ndash205

(62) Stocks BJ Fosberg MA Lynham TJ MearnsL Wotton BM Yang Q Jin JZ Lawrence KHartley GR Mason JA and McKenney DW(1998) Climate change and forest fire potential inRussian and Canadian boreal forests ClimaticChange v 38 no 1 p 1ndash13

(63) Goldammer JG and Price C (1998) Potentialimpacts of climate change on fire regimes in thetropics based on Magicc and a GISS GCM-derivedlightning model Climatic Change v 39 no 2ndash3 p 273ndash296

(64) Flannigan MD Campbell I Wotton MCarcaillet C Richard P and Bergeron Y (2001)Future fire in Canadarsquos boreal forest paleoecologyresults and general circulation model ndash regional climate model simulations Canadian Journal ofForest Research v 31 no 5 p 854ndash864

(65) Flannigan MD Stocks BJ and Wotton BM(2000) Climate change and forest fires Science ofthe Total Environment v 262 no 3 p 221ndash229

(66) Li C Flannigan MD and Corns IGW (2000)Influence of potential climate change on forest landscape dynamics of west-central AlbertaCanadian Journal of Forest Research v 30 no 12 p 1905ndash1912

(67) Bergeron Y (1998) Consequences of climate changeson fire frequency and forest composition in the south-western boreal forest of Quebec Geacuteographie physiqueet Quaternaire v 52 no 2 p 167ndash173

F O R E S T R Y 91

(68) McAlpine RS (1998) The impact of climate change on forest fires and forest fire management in Ontario in The Impacts of Climate Change onOntariorsquos Forests (ed) SJ Colombo LJ Buse ML Cherry C Graham S Greifenhagen RS McAlpine CS Papadapol WC Parker R Scarr MT Ter-Mikaelian and MD FlanniganOntario Forest Research Institute Forest ResearchInformation Paper v 143 no 50 50 p

(69) Environment Canada (2002) Dave Philliprsquos top 10 weather stories of 2001 available on-line at httpwwwmscecgccatop_10_ecfm(accessed February 2002)

(70) Amiro BD Todd JB Wotton BM Logan KAFlannigan MD Stocks BJ Mason JA Martell DL and Hirsch KG (2001) Direct carbon emissions from Canadian forest fires1959ndash1999 Canadian Journal of Forest Research v 31 no 3 p 512ndash525

(71) Volney WJA and Fleming RA (2000) Climatechange and impacts of boreal forest insectsAgriculture Ecosystems and Environment v 82 no 1ndash3 p 283ndash294

(72) Hogg EH Brandt JP and Kochtubajda B (2002)Growth and dieback of apsen forests in northwesternAlberta Canada in relation to climate and insectsCanadian Journal of Forest Research v 32 p 823ndash832

(73) Volney WJA (2001) Impacts of climate change on markets and forest values in Forestry ClimateChange and Adaptation Workshop Proposed ForestryNetwork within C-CIARN prepared for CanadianClimate Change Impacts and Adaptation ResearchNetwork (C-CIARN) by Summum Consultantsavailable on-line at httpforestc-ciarncaimagesCCAIRN20Forest20reportpdf (accessed July 2002)

(74) British Columbia Ministry of Forests (2001) Mountainpine beetle epidemic in the central interior Fact Sheetavailable on-line at httpwwwforgovbccaPABNewsFeaturesbeetlesFactSheetMPBeetle20010212pdf(accessed September 2002)

(75) Percy KE Awmack CS Lindroth RL KopperBJ Isebrands JG Pregitzer KS Hendrey GRDickson RE Zak DR Oksanen E Sober JHarrington R and Karnosky DF (in press) Willpests modify predicted response of forests to CO2enriched atmospheres Nature

(76) Price J (2000) Climate change birds and ecosystems ndash why should we care in Proceedings of the International Health Conference SacramentoCalifornia August 1999

(77) Hooper MC Arii K and Lechowicz MJ (2001)Impact of a major ice storm on an old-growth hard-wood forest Canadian Journal of Botany v 79 no 1p 70ndash75

(78) Kerry M Kelk G Etkin D Burton I and Kalhok S (1999) Glazed over Canada copes with the ice storm of 1998 Environment v 41 no 1 p 6ndash11 28ndash33

(79) Ice Storm Forest Research and Technology Transfer(2001) After the ice storm available on-line athttpwwweomfoncaISFRATTindexhtm(accessed July 2002)

(80) Peterson CJ (2000) Catastrophic wind damage toNorth American forests and the potential impact ofclimate change Science of the Total Environment v 262 no 3 p 287ndash311

(81) Shaw J (2001) The tides of change climate change in Atlantic Canada available on-line athttpadaptationnrcangccapostersreg_enaspRegion=ac (accessed July 2002)

(82) Veblen TT Kulakowski D Eisenhart KS andBaker WL (2001) Subalpine forest damage from asevere windstorm in northern Colorado CanadianJournal of Forest Research v 31 p 2089ndash2097

(83) Lindemann JD and Baker WL (2001) Attributesof blowdown patches from a severe wind event inthe southern Rocky Mountains USA LandscapeEcology v 16 no 4 p 313ndash325


(85) Hauer G Williamson T and Renner M (1999)Socio-economic impacts and adaptive responses to climate change a Canadian forest perspectiveNatural Resources Canada Canadian Forest ServiceNorthern Forestry Centre Edmonton AlbertaInformal Report NOR-X-373

(86) Hauer G (2001) Climate change impacts on agricultureforestry land use patterns developingand applying an integrated impact assessmentmodel unpublished report Natural ResourcesCanada Climate Change Action Fund

(87) Dixon RK Smith JB Brown S Masera O Mata LJ Buksha I and Larocque GR (1999)Simulations of forest system response and feedbacksto global change experience and results from the USCountry Studies Program in Special Issue FutureDirections in Modelling Net Primary Productivity inForest Ecosystems proceedings of a symposium heldat the joint meeting of the North American Chapter of the International Society for Ecological Modelling(ISEM) and the American Institute of BiologicalSciences (AIBS) Montreacuteal Quebec August 5ndash6 1997p 289ndash305

(88) Mendelsohn R (2001) Impacts of climate change on markets and forest values in Forestry ClimateChange and Adaptation Workshop Proposed ForestryNetwork within C-CIARN prepared for CanadianClimate Change Impacts and Adaptation ResearchNetwork (C-CIARN) by Summum Consultants avail-able on-line at httpforestc-ciarncaimagesCCAIRN20Forest20reportpdf (accessed July 2002)


(89) Churkina G and Running S (2000) Investigatingthe balance between timber harvest and productivityof global coniferous forests under global changeClimatic Change v 47 no 1ndash2 p 167ndash191

(90) Nabuurs GJ and Sikkema R (2001) Internationaltrade in wood products its role in the land usechange and forestry carbon cycle Climatic Changev 49 no 4 p 377ndash395

(91) Mike J (2001) Provincial governments and FirstNations perspectives in Forestry Climate Changeand Adaptation Workshop Proposed ForestryNetwork within C-CIARN prepared for CanadianClimate Change Impacts and Adaptation ResearchNetwork (C-CIARN) by Summum Consultants available on-line at httpforestc-ciarncaimagesCCAIRN20Forest20reportpdf (accessed July 2002)

(92) Environment Canada (1999) The Canada CountryStudy (CCS) ndash climate change impacts and adaptationin Canada highlights for Canadians available on-lineat httpwwwecgccaclimateccshighlights_ehtm(accessed July 2002)

(93) Lindner M Lasch P and Erhard M (2000)Alternative forest management strategies under climatic change ndash prospects for gap model applica-tions in risk analyses Silva Fennica v 34 no 2 p 101ndash111

(94) Spittlehouse D (2001) Evaluating and managing for effects of future climates on forest growth inProceedings of Adapting Forest Management toFuture Climate January 25ndash26 2001 Prince AlbertSaskatchewan

(95) Hebda R (1998) Atmospheric change forests and biodiversity Environmental Monitoring andAssessment v 49 no 2ndash3 p 195ndash212

(96) OrsquoShaughnessy SA and Johnson M (2001)Changing climate and adaptation in forest management in Conference Proceedings fromAdapting Forest Management to Future ClimateJanuary 25ndash26 2001 Prince Albert Saskatchewan

(97) OrsquoShaughnessy SA and Martz L (2002) Aframework for determining the ability of the forest sector to adapt to climate change unpub-lished report prepared for the Prairie AdaptationResearch Cooperative (PARC)

(98) Lindner M (1999) Forest management strategies in the context of potential climate changeWaldbaustrategien im Kontext moglicherKlimaanderungen Forstwissenschaftliches-Centralblatt v 118 no 1 p 1ndash13

(99) Irland LC (2000) Ice storms and forest impactsScience of the Total Environment v 262 no 3 p 231ndash242

(100) Montreacuteal Process Working Group (1998) TheMontreacuteal Process available on-line at httpwwwmpciorghome_ehtml (accessed August 2002)

(101) Hogg EH and Schwarz AG (1997) Regenerationof planted conifers across climatic moisture gradientson the Canadian Prairies implications for distributionand climate change Journal of Biogeography v 24p 527ndash534

(102) Dore M Kulshreshtha SN and Johnson M(2000) Agriculture versus forestry in northernSaskatchewan in Sustainable Forest Managementand Global Climate Change (ed) MH Dore and R Guevara Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd UnitedKingdom 281 p

(103) Natural Resources Canada (2001b) GeneticallyModified Trees available on-line at httpwwwnrcan-rncangccacfs-scfsciencebiotechfactstreesindex_ehtml (accessed September 2002)

(104) Brown KR and van den Driessche R (2002)Growth and nutrition of hybrid poplars over 3 yearsafter fertilization at planting Canadian Journal ofForest Research v 32 p 226ndash232

(105) Wheaton E (2001) Changing fire risk in a changing climate a literature review and assessment Saskatchewan Research CouncilPublication No 11341-2E01 prepared for Climate Change Action Fund (CCAF)

(106) Hirsch K Kafka V Todd B and Tymstra C(2001) Using forest management techniques toalter forest fuels and reduce wildfire size anexploratory analysis in Climate Change in thePrairie Provinces Assessing Landscape FireBehaviour Potential and Evaluation Fuel Treatmentas an Adaptation Strategy unpublished report prepared for the Prairie Adaptation ResearchCooperative (PARC)

(107) Johnson M (2001) Impact of climate change on boreal forest insect outbreaks Limited ReportSaskatchewan Research Council Publication No 11341-6E01

(108) Natural Resources Canada (2001c) GeneticallyModified Baculoviruses available on-line athttpwwwnrcan-rncangccacfs-scfsciencebiotechfactsbaculovirusindex_ehtml (accessedSeptember 2002)

(109) Lautenschlager RA and Nielsen C (1999)Ontariorsquos forest science efforts following the 1998 ice storm Forestry Chronicle v 75 no 4 p 633ndash664

Fisheries

F I S H E R I E S 95

Fisheries are both economically and culturallyimportant to Canada Canada has the worldrsquoslongest coastline largest offshore economic zoneand largest freshwater system(2) Over 7 millionpeople live in Canadarsquos coastal areas and the fisheries industry provided more than 144 000Canadians with jobs in 1999(2) For many smallcoastal and aboriginal communities fishing is more than just a livelihood it is a way of life

Canadian fisheries encompass the three oceans(Atlantic Pacific and Arctic) as well as the fresh-water system Within each region commercialrecreational and subsistence fisheries play a signifi-cant though varying role Overall marine fisheriesaccount for the greatest landed value of fish ($192billion) with shellfish currently the most valuablecatch (Table 1) Salmon had landed values of morethan $56 million in 2001(3) and is a vital compo-nent of many subsistence and recreational fisheriesAquaculture first introduced to enhance naturalstocks and is now one of the fastest growing food production activities in Canada accounting

for 225 of Canadian fish and seafood productionworth $5579 million in 1999(2) Recreational fish-eries are also economically important to Canadacontributing $24 billion in direct expenditures and$67 billion in indirect expenditures in 2000(2)

Climatic factors such as air and water temperatureand precipitation and wind patterns strongly influ-ence fish health productivity and distributionChanges such as those associated with a 14ndash58degCincrease in global temperature as have been pro-jected by the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) for the current century(5) couldhave significant impacts on fish populations (egreferences 6 7) This is because most fish specieshave a distinct set of environmental conditionsunder which they experience optimal growthreproduction and survival If these conditionschange in response to a changing climate fishcould be impacted both directly and indirectlySome potential impacts include shifts in speciesdistributions reduced or enhanced growth increasedcompetition from exotic species greater susceptibilityto disease andor parasites and altered ecosystemfunction These changes could eliminate speciesfrom all or part of their present ranges(8 9) andwould affect sustainable harvests of fish

Evidence suggests that in some regions fisheriesmay already be experiencing the effects of climatechange For example climate change has beenidentified as a potential contributor to decliningsalmon stocks on the Pacific coast(10) In the Arcticreports of sockeye and pink salmon captured welloutside their known range may be related to recentwarming trends(11) Furthermore recent shifts inriver flows consistent with climate change projec-tions (see lsquoWater Resourcesrsquo chapter) have beenlinked to changes in fish populations in variousregions of the country

ldquoSurrounded by the Arctic Atlantic and Pacific Oceans

and home to the Great Lakes Canada is one of the

foremost maritime nations on the planetrdquo(1)

TABLE 1 Landed value of fish by species examples givenrepresent the top two types in the category(4)

Atlantic Pacific

Shellfish $1026920000 $94900000(eg lobster (eg clams and shrimp) and shrimp)

Groundfish $170575000 $115834000(eg cod and (eg halibut turbot) and redfish)

Pelagic and $76281000 $71341000other finfish (eg herring (eg skate

and alewife) and alewife)

Other $8984000 $8800000marine life (eg miscellaneous (eg miscella-

and lumpfish roe) neous)


However marine and freshwater ecosystems are complex and are influenced by a range of climatic and non climatic parameters For exampleshort-term climatic fluctuations such as El Nintildeoevents as well as stressors including overfishingpollution and land-use change all affect fish physi-ology distribution and production This makes itdifficult to isolate the potential impacts of climatechange on fisheries(12) Further complicating the situation are the potential effects of changing environmental conditions on species interactionssuch as predator-prey and parasite-host relation-ships food web structure and competition forresources(8) How climate change will affect theserelationships is poorly understood(6) and adds considerable uncertainty to impact assessments

Any thorough assessment of the vulnerability offisheries must account for adaptations that wouldoccur either in response to or in anticipation ofclimate change The fisheries sector has demon-strated its ability to adapt to change in the pastthrough adjustments in capture methods marketingstrategies and target species There is however alimited understanding of both the adaptive capacityof the fisheries sector with respect to climatechange and the range and feasibility of potentialadaptation options(2) Successful adaptation will bekey in minimizing the negative impacts of climatechange while taking advantage of any new oppor-tunities that may arise

Previous Work

In their summary of Canadian research as part ofthe Canada Country Study Shuter et al(13) identi-fied two main categories of climate change impactson fish populations 1) impacts on fish at specificlocations such as changes in productivity orhealth and 2) impacts on the spatial distribution of fish populations such as northward migrations

The overall projected effects of these changes on sustainable harvests vary across the country as summarized in Table 2

TABLE 2 Projected changes in sustainable harvests in Canada (as summarized in reference 13 areview of literature published prior to 1998)

Projected change Region in sustainable harvest

Atlantic marine Decrease

Arctic marine Increase for most species

Pacific marine Decrease in southern regions (salmon)Increase in northern regions (salmon)

Southern freshwater Decrease

Northern freshwater Increase

In general the researchers found that northernregions were expected to benefit whereas southernregions could potentially experience decreases insustainable harvests This was due primarily to theassumption that colder regions would profit morefrom longer ice-free periods and warmer growingseasons Water temperature however is not theonly factor that must be considered in projectingthe impacts of climate change on Canadian fisheriesIncreases in extreme events changes in circulationpatterns and sea-lake-river ice regimes and inva-sions of exotic species must also be included Thecomplexity this adds to impact assessments is suchthat most predictions for the fisheries sector havetended to be qualitative in nature estimating onlywhether the impacts will be positive or negative(13)

Although adaptation has not been extensively examined in the context of climate change adaptation to changing environmental conditions is not a new concept for the fisheries sector Thissector has adapted to fluctuating environmental conditions and fish abundances in the past and will continue to do so in the future Successful adaptation will be enhanced by continuing efforts to develop ecosystem-centred strategies that focus on minimizing the negative impacts of climate change at the local level strengthening managementregimes and reducing vulnerability to other stresses

Impacts on Fish and Fisheries

ldquoClimate variability and change are already

impacting and will increasingly impact Canadian

fish and fisheriesrdquo(2)

The impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries will result from both biological and abiotic changes as well as shifts in the man-madeenvironment Changes in water temperature waterlevels extreme events and diseases and climate-driven shifts in predator and prey abundances will all impact Canadian fisheries Changes in lakeand ocean circulation patterns and vertical mixingwill also be important However the limited understanding of the mechanisms controlling thebehavioural response of fish to climate change(14)

limitations in data and the inability of models toaccount for the delayed impacts of environmentalvariability(15) reduce our ability to project netimpacts at present

Pacific Coast

In British Columbia provincial revenues from commercial fishing sport fishing aquaculture andfish processing exceed $17 billion(16) Over the past10 years significant changes have been noted inthe British Columbia marine ecosystem(17) that may be related to shifts in climate although otherfactors such as fishing practices salmon farmingfreshwater habitat destruction and freshwaterdams and irrigation facilities have also been implicated(18 19)

In recent years much of the climate changeresearch on the Pacific coast has focused on salmonspecies owing to their importance to this regionrsquoscommercial recreational and subsistence fisheriesand to the alarming declines in the salmon catchobserved since the late 1980s(2 19) Low populationsizes and survival rates of steelhead and cohosalmon have caused significant fisheries reductionsand closures in recent years(20) In addition salmonrequire at least two different aquatic habitats(marine and freshwater) over their life cycle mak-ing them susceptible to a wide array of potentialclimate impacts and studies have concluded that

climatic forcing has been a key factor regulatingnortheastern Pacific salmon stocks over the last 2 200 years(21)

The relationship between water temperature andsalmon is complex with numerous studies docu-menting diverse results Higher temperatures havebeen associated with slower growth(22 23) enhancedsurvival(24) faster swimming rates(25) reduced pro-ductivity(25) and shifts in salmon distribution(25)

As water temperatures increase energy require-ments tend to rise which often reduces growthproductivity and ultimately population size(23)

Higher water temperatures have also been shownto decrease salmon spawning success(26) and toenhance survival rates by improving the physiologi-cal state of the salmon(24)

Temperature changes will also affect fish indirectlythrough changes in food and nutrient supplies andpredator-prey dynamics Temperature anomaliesand changes in current patterns have been associ-ated with large changes in the type and seasonalavailability of plankton(27) Furthermore higher surface water temperatures have been shown toboth prevent nutrients from reaching the water surface(28) and increase the rates of salmon preda-tion by other fishes(29)

Future climate changes are projected to result inmore variable river flows with more frequent flash floods and lower minimum flows (see lsquoWaterResourcesrsquo chapter) The timing of peak flows isalso expected to shift due to climate change(26)

These changes would influence salmon mortalitypassage and habitat Lower flows may benefit juve-nile salmon by reducing mortality and providingincreased habitat refuges(30) When combined withhigher temperatures in the late summer and fallhowever lower flows could increase pre-spawningmortality(2) An increase in flash flooding coulddamage gravel beds used by salmon for spawn-ing(31) Flooding also has the potential to cause fishkills from oxygen depletion owing to the increasedflushing of organic matter into estuaries(2)

Other climate factors that may significantly affectwest coast salmon populations include synoptic-scale climate changes and the frequency of extremeclimate events For example widespread decreasesin coho marine survival have been shown to correspond to abrupt changes in the Aleutian Low



Pressure Index(32 33) Other studies have suggestedthat recent declines in Pacific steelhead populationsare related to the increased frequency of winterstorms and summer droughts observed during the1980s and 1990s(34) These extreme events mayhave impacted salmon survival and productionthrough habitat disruption and loss

It is important to note that although most of the recent literature on the Pacific coast focuses on salmon climate change would have implicationsfor other types of fish Groundfish and shellfish are both important economically to the region with landed values in 1998 of $1158 million and $949 million respectively(4) Changing marineconditions will have implications for sustainableharvests fishing practices and subsistence fisheries

Atlantic Coast

The fishing industry remains extremely important tothe economy of the Atlantic coast although its dom-inance is weakening(35) Shellfish catches currentlyrepresent the greatest landed value(4) with aquacul-ture quickly growing in importance There are anestimated 43 000 fishermen in the Atlantic regionmost of whom are highly dependent on the fishingindustry(35) As is the case for the Pacific coast themain climate change issues for the Atlantic fisheryin Canada relate to impacts arising from changes inocean temperatures current and wind and weatherpatterns as well as increases in extreme events(36)

Key species of concern include cod snow crab andsalmon The impacts of climate change on differentvarieties of plankton are also a concern(2)

Long-term trends suggest that climate influenceswhich species of fish are available for harvesting(37)

While the recent shift in harvesting from groundfishto shellfish appears to have been driven primarilyby fishing practices climate is also believed to haveplayed a role For example reduced growth ratesand productivity resulting from lower than averagewater temperatures during the late 1980s and early1990s are believed to have contributed to thedecline in groundfish stocks(38 39)

It is important to emphasize that the relationshipsbetween water temperature and factors such asgrowth rate and productivity are complex with different species having different optimal thermalconditions Researchers have demonstrated that

BOX 1 Water temperature and Atlantic Snow Crab(41)

Snow crab an important component of Atlanticmarine fisheries are sensitive to climate warmingThis is especially true on the eastern Scotian Shelfand the Grand Bank of Newfoundland Researchersfound a strong relationship between water temper-ature and snow crab reproduction and distributionalthough the relationship was found to depend on the crabrsquos stage of development Some key findings include

bull Females incubate their eggs for 1 year in waterswarmer than 1degC as opposed to 2 years inwaters colder than 1degC This suggests thatfemales in warmer waters may produce twice as many eggs as females in colder waters over their reproductive lifetime

bull The survivorship and long-term growth of juveniles is optimized at intermediate watertemperatures (0 to +15degC)

bull The spatial distribution of adolescent and adultcrab is influenced by water temperature Coolerwaters are occupied by smaller younger crabwhereas warmer waters are inhabited by largerolder crab No crab however were found inwaters exceeding 8degC

Photo courtesy of D Gilbert

Atlantic snow crab


snow crab for example are particularly sensitive to changing environmental conditions and thatchanges in water temperatures affect their repro-duction and distribution (see Box 1) Anotherexample is the observation that egg survival hatch rate and initial hatch size of winter flounder tend to be higher in cooler waters leadingresearchers to suggest that in some regions recentincreases in water temperatures have contributed toobserved declines in the abundance of the fish(40)

Higher water temperatures an increase in sea level and changes in salinity could all affect marinepathogens(42) resulting in changes in the distribu-tion and significance of certain marine diseasesThis is supported by historical observations suchas the northward extension in the range of easternoyster disease along the American coast during the mid-1980s as the result of a winter warmingtrend(42) Conversely some diseases of salmon have been shown to decrease or even disappear at higher temperatures(42)

Another concern for Atlantic fisheries is a potential increase in toxic algal blooms(43)

Researchers believe that climate warming may stimulate the growth and extend the range of theorganisms responsible for toxic algal blooms suchas red tides (see Box 2) These blooms threatenshellfish populations through both lethal effectsand chronic impacts Aquaculture operations areparticularly sensitive to toxic algal blooms becausethey operate in a fixed location Clams are gener-ally more affected than other shellfish such aslobster shrimp and scallops Exposure to the toxins may negatively affect fish habitat behavioursusceptibility to disease feeding ability and repro-duction(44) Infected shellfish are also a danger tohuman health potentially resulting in paralyticshellfish poisoning

The impacts of climate change on Atlantic salmonare similar to those described for Pacific salmonDuring their time in freshwater Atlantic salmon are sensitive to changes in both river water temper-atures and flow regimes (see Box 3) Changes intemperature have been shown to significantly affectsustainable harvests and fishing practices Forexample researchers studying the influence ofwater temperatures on recreational salmon fisheriesin Newfoundlandrsquos rivers found that between 1975and 1999 about 28 of rivers were temporarilyclosed each year due to warm water temperatures

BOX 2 An increase in toxic algal blooms(43)

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are recurrent in the estuary and Gulf of St Lawrence in easternCanada There is concern that these blooms will increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change

To determine the role of climate on algal bloomsWeise et al (2001) analysed 10 years of hydrologi-cal biological and meteorological data They foundthat rainfall local river runoff and wind regimegreatly affected the pattern of bloom developmentwith the development of blooms favoured by highrun-off from local tributary rivers combined withprolonged periods of low winds More intense algaloutbreaks were associated with extreme climateevents such as heavy rainfall If conditions suchas these become more common in the future wecan expect to see an increase in the onset and pro-liferation of toxic algal blooms in eastern Canada

Image courtesy of L Beacuterard

Electron microscope image of Alexandrium tamarensean algae responsible for toxic algal blooms


or low water levels(45) In some years more than70 of rivers were affected These closures led to aloss of 35 to 65 of potential fishing days in someregions the worst period being between 1995 and 1999 The researchers concluded that climatechange may increase the frequency of closures and potentially decrease the economic importanceof recreational fishing in Newfoundland(45)

While it is broadly acknowledged that changes inthe intensity and frequency of extreme events havethe potential to impact marine fisheries relativelyfew studies have addressed this issue A recentstudy examining the impact of summer droughtand flood events in the Sainte-Marguerite River sys-tem of eastern Quebec concluded that these eventsinfluence the average size of salmon at the end ofthe summer through selective mortality of salmonfry(47) During drought mortality rates were higherin smaller salmon fry whereas during floodsgreater mortality rates were recorded among largerfry However other studies suggest that salmon arerelatively resilient to flood events(48) In a study ofNew Brunswick streams average feeding rates andlong-term growth were determined to not be signifi-cantly reduced by flooding despite temporaryreductions in juvenile salmon growth in responseto specific flood events(48)

Aquaculture is generally considered to be relativelyadaptable to climate change and is even recognizedas a potential adaptation to help fisheries cope withthe impacts of climate change On a global basisaquaculture production has been steadily increasingsince 1990 and is expected to surpass capture har-vests by 2030(8) Nonetheless the aquacultureindustry is concerned about how an increase inextreme events and shifts in wind patterns couldaffect the flushing of wastes and nutrients betweenfarm sites and the ocean(37) Furthermore higherwater temperatures may increase the risk of diseaseand compromise water quality by affecting bacterialevels dissolved oxygen concentrations and algalblooms(8) Climate change may also affect the typeof species farmed with water temperatures becom-ing too warm for the culture of certain species yetbetter suited for others

The impacts of climate change on coastal wetlandscould also significantly affect Atlantic fisheries assalt marshes are an important source of organicmatter for coastal fisheries and provide vital fishhabitat Researchers have found that increasing

BOX 3 How will climate change affect juvenileAtlantic salmon(46)

Atlantic salmon are cold-water species andwarmer waters resulting from future climatechange could negatively impact fish growthincrease susceptibility to disease and infectionincrease mortality rates and decrease the avail-ability of suitable habitat New BrunswickrsquosMiramichi River is located near the southern limit of Atlantic salmon distribution and hence its populations are very sensitive to changes inboth water temperature and streamflow Modellingsuggests that climate change could increase riverwater temperatures by 2 to 5degC and produce moreextreme low flow conditions

Using 30 years of data Swansberg and El Jabi(2001) examined the relationships between climatehydrological parameters and the fork length ofjuvenile salmon in the Miramichi River Fork lengthis an indicator of growth which also affects com-petition predation smoltification and marinesurvival of salmon In association with the warmingobserved over the time period studied fork lengthof juvenile salmon parr was found to have declinedsignificantly Researchers have therefore suggestedthat future climate change will adversely affect thegrowth of juvenile salmon in the Miramichi River

Image courtesy of Atlantic Salmon Federation and G van Ryckevorsel

Atlantic salmon


rates of sea level rise as a result of climate change could threaten many of these marshes (reference 49 see lsquoCoastal Zonersquo chapter) withresultant consequences for fish productivity

Arctic Coast

Future climate change is expected to impact many aspects of life in northern Canada includingfishing practices(2) Though not of the same eco-nomic magnitude as the fisheries of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts Arctic fisheries are important for subsistence sport and commercial activities as well as for conservation values(50) There is growing recognition that recent changes in climateare already impacting fish and marine mammals and that these changes are in turn impacting subsistence activities and traditional ways of lifeFor example there have been reports from theNorthwest Territories of salmon capture outside of known species ranges such as sockeye and pink salmon in Sachs Harbour and coho salmon in Great Bear Lake(11) that may be early evidencethat distributions are shifting(13) In Sachs Harbourrecent warming and increased variability in springweather have shortened the fishing season by limit-ing access to fishing camps and local residentshave noted changes in fish and seal availability(51)

Some of the most significant impacts of climatechange on Arctic marine ecosystems are expected to result from changes in sea-ice cover (see lsquoCoastalZonersquo chapter) Using satellite andor surface-basedobservations several studies have documented sig-nificant reductions in the extent of sea ice over thepast three to four decades (eg reference 52) withup to a 9 decline in the extent of perennial sea ice per decade between 1978 and 1998(53) Althoughsignificant decreases in the thickness of ArcticOcean sea ice on the order of 40 over past three decades have also been reported(54) someresearchers believe that the observed decrease likely relates to sea ice dynamics and distributionrather than a basin-wide thinning(55) However most climate models project that both the extentand thickness of sea ice will continue to declinethroughout the present century(52) eventually lead-ing to an Arctic with only a very limited summersea-ice cover(53 56 57)

Sea ice is a major control on the interactionsbetween marine and terrestrial ecosystems and the undersurface of sea ice is a growth site for thealgae and invertebrates that sustain the marinefood web(58) Some studies suggest that a decreasein sea ice could threaten Arctic cod stocks becausetheir distribution and diet are highly dependent onice conditions(59) However a decrease in sea icecould in the short term increase the number andextent of highly productive polynyas (areas of recur-rent open water enclosed by sea ice)(13) enablingsome species to benefit from an increase in foodsupply Fishing practices would also be impactedby changes in the extent thickness and predictabilityof sea-ice cover Changes in sea-ice conditions wouldaffect the length of the fishing season the safety ofusing sea-ice as a hunting platform and potentiallyalter the fish species available for harvesting

Marine mammals including polar bears seals and whales which contribute significantly to thesubsistence diets and incomes of many northernersare known to be sensitive to climate change Forexample polar bears are directly and indirectlyaffected by changes in temperature and sea-ice conditions with populations located near thesouthern limit of their species distribution beingespecially sensitive(60) For example observeddeclines in bear condition and births in the westernHudson Bay region have been associated withrecent warming trends which have caused earlierice break-up thereby restricting access to the sealsthat are a critical source of nutrition for thebears(60 61) Seals in turn may be affected byreduced predation(58) as well as by habitat degra-dation or loss(59)

Other marine mammals would also be impacted bychanges in sea-ice conditions(59) Reductions in theextent of sea-ice could result in decreased amountsof sub-ice and ice-edge phytoplankton a key sourceof food for the copepods and fish such as Arcticcod that provide nutrition for narwhal and belugawhales(62) Conversely a decrease in ice covercould enhance primary production in open waterand thereby increase food supply In the winter the risk of ice entrapment of whales may increasewhereas decreased ice cover on summer nurserygrounds may increase rates of predation(63) Finallydecreased ice cover would likely result in increased


use of marine channels for shipping which couldhave negative impacts on marine ecosystems as aresult of increased noise and pollution(62)

Freshwater Fisheries

Canada has the worldrsquos largest freshwater system

with over 2 million lakes and rivers that cover

more than 755 000 square kilometres(2)

For freshwater fisheries changes in water tempera-ture species distributions and habitat quality arethe main direct impacts expected to result from cli-mate change As is the case with marine fisheriesit is important to recognize that the effects of non-climatic ecosystem stresses will continue to impactfisheries making it important to understand howclimate change will interact with these stressorsFor freshwater fisheries these stressors includeland-use change water withdrawals(64) and theintroduction of non-native species(65) Inland fish-eries will also face additional challenges stemmingfrom increased competition for water between sectors as supply-demand mismatches becomemore common due to climate change (see lsquoWaterResourcesrsquo chapter)

Higher temperatures will affect different freshwaterfish species in different ways The magnitude ofpotential temperature changes in freshwater sites is significantly greater than that for marine environ-ments Fish are commonly divided into three guilds(cold cool and warm water) based on the optimalthermal habitats around which their thermal nicheis centred A fourth guild for Arctic fish that prefereven lower temperatures has also been sugges-ted(13) Both laboratory and field research supportthe conclusion that warm-water fish such as stur-geon and bass generally benefit from increasedwater temperatures whereas cold-water fish liketrout and salmon tend to suffer (eg reference 13)For instance a 2degC increase in water temperaturewas found to reduce the growth rate(66) survival(67)

and reproductive success(68) of rainbow trout In contrast higher temperatures were found toincrease population growth of lake sturgeon(69)

Climate change will also impact freshwater fish-eries through its effects on water levels (reference70 see lsquoWater Resourcesrsquo chapter) Lower water

levels in the Great Lakes resulting from increasedevaporation and shifts in surface-water and ground-water flow patterns would threaten shorelinewetlands that provide vital fish habitat and fishnursery grounds(71) In the St Lawrence Riverlower water levels would expose new substrateand may facilitate the invasion of exotic andoraggressive aquatic plant species(72) Lower waterlevels in lakes on the Prairies have been shown to result in increased salinity and have significanteffects on aquatic organisms(73)

Shifts in seasonal ice cover(74 75 76 77) and extremeclimate events would also be an important result ofclimate change Ice cover affects lake productivityby controlling light availability and dissolved oxy-gen concentrations Dissolved oxygen levels declineprogressively through the ice-cover period and candrop to levels that are lethal for fish A decrease induration of ice cover could therefore reduce overwinter fish mortality from winterkill(78)

Temperature extremes high winds extreme precipitation and storm events have all been shownto impact the growth reproduction and metabolismof fish species(79) Increases in the intensity or frequency of such events as a result of climatechange could substantially increase fish mortalityin some lakes(79)

Climate change is expected to alter the regions ofsuitable habitat for fish(73) both within lakes andwithin or between drainage basins Within manylakes there exists a range of thermal habitats dueto seasonal stratification (eg a warm surface layerand cooler deep waters) The timing and size of thedifferent thermal zones are strongly influenced byclimatic conditions (see Box 4) as well as by thecharacteristics of the lake For example studieshave found that clear lakes are more sensitive toclimate warming than lakes where light penetrationis more limited(80) Climate change could potentiallyresult in earlier onset of stratification(81) an extendedsummer stratification period(77) and changes in the volume of each of the various layers(73) Thesechanges could in turn alter the dominant speciesfound in a lake and potentially cause the extirpationof certain fish species(82)

Climate change would also result in shifts in thedistribution of fish species It has been suggestedthat the warming associated with a doubling ofatmospheric CO2 could cause the zoogeographicalboundary for freshwater fish species to move


northward by 500 to 600 kilometres(70) assumingthat fish are able to adapt successfully A numberof factors could impede this shift including a lackof viable migration routes and warmer waters thatisolate fish in confined headwaters(65) Suchchanges in species distribution would affect thesustainable harvests of fish in lakes and rivers

Additional stress would be added to aquatic ecosys-tems by the invasion of new and exotic species For example it is expected that warm-water fish will migrate to regions currently occupied by cool-and cold-water fish In the Great Lakes exoticspecies are expected to continue to be introducedthrough ballast waters discharged from freighters(83)

As most of these species originate from warmerwaters of the Ponto-Caspian region their competitiveadvantage over the native cold-water species of theGreat Lakes should increase as lake waters warm inresponse to climate change(73) As well as increasingfish extirpations(70) the introduction of new speciescan also have significant effects on aquatic foodwebs and ecosystem functioning(84)

Climate change could also impact fisheries throughexacerbating existing water quality problems (seelsquoWater Resourcesrsquo chapter) For example althoughfish contamination from metals has always been aconcern in the Arctic new evidence suggests thatwarming may worsen the situation by enhancingthe uptake of heavy metals by fish Elevated accu-mulations of cadmium and lead in Arctic char havebeen attributed to higher fish metabolic ratesinduced by higher water temperatures and longerice-free seasons (reference 85 see lsquoHuman Healthand Well-Beingrsquo chapter) Poor water quality canimpact fisheries by displacing fish populationscausing large fish kills or rendering fish unsafe for consumption

A large number of studies show that climatic factorsincluding temperature and drought are importantcontrols on water acidity and a wide range of biolog-ical and geochemical processes(75 86 87 88 89) Forexample higher water temperatures have beenshown to increase microbiological activity whichenhances the release of metals from the substrate to the water(88) As fish tend to be well adapted to acertain range of environmental conditions shifts inany of these factors could cause stress and highermortality rates in certain fish species

Adaptation

ldquoSustainable fisheries management will require

timely and accurate scientific information on the

environmental conditions that affect fish stocks

and institutional flexibility to respond quickly

to such informationrdquo(90)

While the adaptive capacity of the Canadian fisheries sector with respect to climate change isgenerally poorly understood(2) there is growing

BOX 4 How will lake stratification affect changingwater temperatures(82)

Climate change is expected to affect both the sizeand temperature of the different thermal zones inlakes Spatial and temporal shifts in thermal nichespace are expected to affect the feeding patternsproductivity and reproduction of such fish as yellow perch and lake trout

The surface layer will warm in response to higher airtemperatures but there is less certainty concerninghow the deeper layers would be affected

To address this issue Hesslein et al (2001) applieda modelling approach and concluded that the deeperlayers would warm primarily through increased pene-tration of solar radiation due to an increase in lakeclarity Lake clarity could be altered by changes in runoff from surrounding lands resulting fromchanges in precipitation Changes in lake clarity are expected to be most significant in shallow lakes

Warm surface water (epilimnion)

Transition zonemdashtemperaturedrops quickly with depth

(metalimnion)

Cool bottom waters(hypolimnion)

Diagram of a stratified lake


recognition of the need to anticipate and preparefor potential changes and increased realization that present-day decisions will affect future vulnerabilities There are many different adaptationoptions available to the fisheries sector most ofwhich are modelled on actions that were taken in response to non-climate stresses on the sector in the past(13)

While many stakeholders in the fisheries sectorappear concerned about climate change they tendto be generally optimistic regarding their adaptationcapabilities(51 91) However this presumes thatchanges are gradual and predictable which maynot be the case A major challenge for regulatorsfishers and other stakeholders will be adjustingtheir policies and practices in an appropriate andtimely manner to deal with shifts in fish speciesdistribution and relative abundance in response to climate change

There is evidence that marine ecosystems are relatively resilient to changes in the environment(8)

and that freshwater fish will adjust their habitat and range to deal with changes in temperatureregime(70) However there are concerns that the rate of future climate change may overwhelm theability of natural systems to adapt(63) In additionspecies can differ greatly in their adaptive capacityFor example mobile species such as fish swim-ming crabs and shrimp should be able to quicklymigrate to more suitable habitat in response tohigher temperatures whereas other less mobilespecies like clams and oysters will require moretime(8) Life-cycle characteristics may also affect the resilience of different fish species Species withlonger life spans are better able to persist throughconditions that are less favourable for reproduc-tion(92) whereas species with higher reproductiverates and faster maturity rates are more likely torecover from prolonged population decline(93)

Facilitating Adaptation

Fisheries managers and others can help enhancethe adaptive capacity of both fish species and thefisheries sector by reducing non-climatic stresses on fish populations such as pollution fishing pressures and habitat degradation(94) Maintaininggenetic and age diversity in fish sub-populations is also important These are considered lsquono-regretsrsquo

adaptation options which will benefit fisheries irrespective of climate change

The ability to identify where changes are occurringis particularly important with respect to adjustingguidelines for the allowable sustainable catch ofvarious fish species Monitoring for climate-inducedchanges will help fishery managers and governmentsto determine which species may require enhancedprotection and which species are appropriate forfishing For example as lake temperatures increasein certain Ontario lakes warm-water fish maybecome more suited to angling than cold-water fish (see Box 5) To enhance and protect fish habitat along marine coasts some regions could be designated as marine protected areas(95) To be most effective future changes in climate mustbe considered when designating such areas

Regulatory regimes can also significantly affect theability of fishers to adapt to changing conditions At present commercial licenses provide fishers withthe right to catch specific species in specific watersIn order to shift to a different species or a differentlocation approval would be required as may anew fishing license Current regulatory regimes maytherefore need to be re-evaluated in the context ofclimate change and adjusted accordingly

Many small communities are highly reliant on fisheries and could be greatly affected by changesin sustainable harvests induced by climate changeA conservation-oriented approach to fisheries management (eg reference 50 97) considers biological and environmental factors as well associal and economic values(97) and aims to activelyinvolve fishers and other stakeholders Fisheriesand Oceans Canada is currently developing a policyframework through the Atlantic Fisheries PolicyReview (AFPR) based on these principles

Aquaculture

The aquaculture industry is generally confident ofits ability to adapt to changing conditions andbelieves that it may be able to benefit from longergrowing seasons and increased harvest areas(98)

Proposed adaptation strategies related to climatechange include introducing closed farming systemsand using excess tanker ship capacity to raise fishin an isolated controlled environment(98)


There are however environmental and social considerations that may limit the ability of theaquaculture industry to respond rapidly to climatechange (eg see references 18 99) Aquaculture isstrictly regulated meaning that it is generally neithersimple nor efficient for existing operations to moveto new locations or change the type of fish beingfarmed As a result there is a need to emphasizeplanned anticipatory adaptation responses to climatechange The fact that the aquaculture industry onthe Pacific coast has expressed interest in havingnew locations selected and pre-approved for variousclimate change scenarios(98) is an example that thisneed has been recognized

Research and Communication

To enhance the adaptive capacity of the fisheriessector there is a need to increase stakeholder par-ticipation in decision making improve the qualityof information available to the public create easily accessible data sets and increase the lines of communication between industry governmentscientific researchers coastal communities and thegeneral public(2) The Internet has been suggestedas an appropriate tool for the dissemination of information(60) although more conventional methods such as workshops and town meetingsmay also be appropriate

Improved communication will also help facilitateeffective research collaborations between scientistsgovernment traditional resource users and the gen-eral public(60) Research collaborations can addressregional issues (see Box 6) or national or interna-tional concerns(100) For these collaborations to besuccessful and for research to influence future direc-tions and decisions stakeholders must be includedthroughout the research process A challenge to both researchers and policy-makers is ensuring that science results are effectively incorporated into the policy-making process (eg reference 101)

Modelling of marine ecosystems is still a relativelynew area of research and future studies could contribute significantly to the development ofappropriate adaptation strategies Recommendationsfor improving modelling studies include research to better define the linkages between species

BOX 5 Adapting sport fishing to climate change(96)

Sport fishing is a popular activity that attractstourists and generates significant revenues inmany parts of Canada Increased water tempera-tures may adversely affect certain populations of sport fish and cause significant changes insustained yield (see figure below)

To address this issue within Ontario Shuter et al(2001) have suggested that fisheries managerslook for trade-off options between cold cool andwarm water fishery components For instance inregions where cold-water species such as brooktrout are expected to decline fisheries managerscould shift recreational fishing to warm-waterspecies such as perch which is expected to benefitfrom climate warming This adaptation option mayincrease the resilience of the sport fishing industryand reduce any potential losses resulting from climate change

Relative changes in maximum sustained yield ofwalleye in Ontario under a 2xCO2 climate changescenario Note the general decrease in maximumsustained yield in the south of the province andincrease in the central and northern regions


and the environment and improving cooperationbetween researchers from different disciplines(15)

Incorporating the local knowledge of fishers and fishery managers is also important(14)


Uncertainties concerning the impacts of climatechange on Canadian fisheries and potential adapta-tion options are numerous Marine ecosystems areextremely complex and further research is neededto improve understanding of both the underlyingprocesses affecting fish biodiversity distribution andabundance and their response to climate change Forinstance a stronger understanding of the relation-ships between aquatic habitat and fish populationsas well as the linkages between climate parametersand aquatic habitat is required Although freshwaterecosystems tend to be better understood than marineenvironments there remain many uncertaintiesAdaptation though not a new concept for the fish-eries sector needs to be more thoroughly examined inthe context of climate change and current regulatoryregimes Emerging issues including interjurisdic-tional resource management within a changingclimate need to be addressed and results should beincorporated into domestic licensing policies andinternational treaties (eg references 2 103) Somekey recommendations as identified in the studiesreferenced in this chapter include the following

Impacts

1) Improved monitoring and prediction of theimpacts of climate change on species andecosystems

2) Research on the impacts of rapid climate changeand extreme events on the fisheries sector

3) Improved incorporation of local knowledge intoimpact assessments

BOX 6 Facilitating collaborations in the Borealshield region(102)

Aquatic research in the Boreal shield ecozone hasbeen ongoing for the past several decades Indeedthere are a number of world-class research siteswith past and current activities in this regionTherefore there is a wealth of data informationand knowledge available to apply to climatechange research To best capitalize on this oppor-tunity communication and collaborations betweenthe research sites are necessary Arnott et al (2001)organized a workshop though which they developeda framework for coordinating studies on climatechange impacts and helped establish strong linkages between researchers Since the workshopa network coordinating institute has been estab-lished and several collaborative projects havebeen initiated

Photo courtesy of NRCan Photo Database


4) Research focusing on impacts of changes inocean conditions such as ocean circulation and sea ice on fish

5) Studies that address the socio-economic consequences of climate change for marine and freshwater fisheries

Adaptation

1) Methodologies for improving communicationand collaboration between scientists policy-makers and stakeholders

2) Investigations into the best methods to increasethe resilience of fishery systems and improvetheir ability to respond to change

3) Studies on the role of aquaculture in adapting to climate change

4) Development of adaptation models that incorpo-rate the knowledge of scientists fisherymanagers and fishers

5) Research targeted to assist the development of policies and programs that will help coastalcommunities deal with potential fish expansionsand contractions

Conclusion

The significant impacts of past changes in climateon marine and freshwater ecosystems indicate thatfuture climate change will impact Canadian fish-eries Fish and other aquatic species are sensitiveto environmental conditions and will respond tochanges in air and water temperature precipitationwater circulation ice cover and other climatically-controlled factors We can expect to see changes inspecies distributions fish growth the susceptibilityof fish to disease and competitive interactionsbetween species As a result sustainable harvestsof fish will be impacted across the countryHowever isolating the impacts of climate changefrom other stresses affecting fisheries is difficultFurthermore even direct associations between such variables as water temperature and fish are often complex in nature

Adaptation will be required to reduce the vulnera-bility of the fisheries sector Climate change can be incorporated into fisheries risk managementeven as researchers and stakeholders continue toimprove our understanding of aquatic ecosystemsand their response to change Given present uncer-tainties about the nature of future climate changesemphasis should be placed on management andconservation activities that promote resource sus-tainability and habitat preservation and help toensure a range of healthy sub-populations of fishspecies over wide areas Improving the accessibilityand availability of information through increasedresearch and communication and enhancing the flexibility and resilience of the sector are also important components of addressing climate change


References


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(2) Fisheries and Oceans Canada (2000) DFO climatevariability and change impacts and adaptationsresearch for Canadarsquos marine and freshwater fish-eries Fisheries and Oceans Canada SummaryProgram Framework Workshop Proceedings andBackground Report 83 p

(3) Fisheries and Oceans Canada (2002) Domesticimports of selected commodities Fisheries and Oceans Canada available on-line at httpwwwdfo-mpogccacommunicstatisticstradeMSPS01htm (accessed December 2002)

(4) Statistics Canada (2002) Landed value of fish by species Statistics Canada available on-line athttpwwwstatcancaenglishPgdbprim70htm(accessed December 2002)

(5) Albritton DL and Filho LGM (2001) Technicalsummary in Climate Change 2001 The ScientificBasis (ed) JT Houghton Y Ding DJ Griggs M Noguer PJ van der Linden X Dai K Maskell and CA Johnson contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeCambridge University Press p 21ndash84 also availableon-line at httpwwwgridanoclimateipcc_tarwg2indexhtm (accessed December 2002)

(6) McGinn NA (2002) Fisheries in a changing climate American Fisheries Society 319 p

(7) Montevecchi WA and Myers RA (1997)Centurial and decadal oceanographic influences onchanges in northern gannet populations and diets in the north-west Atlantic implications for climatechange ICES Journal of Marine Science v 54 no 4p 608ndash614

(8) Kennedy VS Twilley RR Kleypas JA CowanJH Jr and Hare SR (2002) Coastal and marineecosystems and global climate change potentialeffects on US resources report prepared for thePew Center on Global Climate Change 52 p

(9) Jackson DA and Mandrak NE (2002) Changingfish biodiversity predicting the loss of cyprind bio-diversity due to global climate change in Fisheriesin a Changing Climate (ed) NA McGinnAmerican Fisheries Society 319 p

(10) Beamish RJ and Noakes DJ (2002) The role of climate in the past present and future of Pacificsalmon fisheries off the west coast of Canada inFisheries in a Changing Climate (ed) NA McGinnAmerican Fisheries Society 319 p

(11) Babaluk JA Reist JD Johnson JD andJohnson L (2000) First records of sockeye(Oncorhynchus nerka) and pink salmon (O gor-buscha) from Banks Island and other records ofPacific salmon in Northwest Territories CanadaArctic v 53 no 2 p 161ndash164

(12) Peterman RM Pyper BJ and Grout JA (2000)Comparison of parameter estimation methods fordetecting climate-induced changes in productivity of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp) CanadianJournal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences v 57 no 1 p 181ndash191

(13) Shuter BJ Minns CK Regier HA and Reist JD(1998) Canada Country Study climate impacts andadaptation fishery sector in Responding to GlobalClimate Change National Sectoral Issue (ed) GKoshida and W Avis Environment Canada CanadaCountry Study Climate Impacts and Adaptation v VII p 219ndash256

(14) Mackinson S (2001) Integrating local and scientific knowledge an example in fisheries science Environmental Management v 27 no 4 p 533ndash545

(15) Hoffman EE and Powell TM (1998)Environmental variability effects on marine fisheriesfour case histories Ecological Applications v 81 no 1 p S23ndashS32

(16) Government of British Columbia (2001) StatisticsGovernment of British Columbia available on-line at wwwbcfisheriesgovbccastatsstatisticshtml(accessed December 2002)

(17) Beamish RJ (1999) Why a strategy for managingsalmon in a changing climate is urgently needed in Climate Change and Salmon Stocks VancouverBritish Columbia Canada Pacific Fisheries ResourceConservation Council

(18) Noakes DJ Beamish RJ and Kent ML (2000)On the decline of Pacific salmon and speculativelinks to salmon farming in British ColumbiaAquaculture v 183 no 3ndash4 p 363ndash386

(19) Fluharty DL (2000) Characterization and assess-ment of economic systems in the interior ColumbiaBasin fisheries General Technical Reports of the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service v PNW-GTR-451 p 1ndash114

(20) Ward BR (2000) Declivity in steelhead(Oncorhynchus mykiss) recruitment at the KeoghRiver over the past decade Canadian Journal ofFisheries and Aquatic Sciences v 57 p 298ndash306

(21) Finney BP Gregory-Eaves I Douglas MSV and Smol JP (2002) Fisheries productivity in thenortheastern Pacific Ocean over the past 2200 yearsNature v 416 p 729ndash733

(22) Cox SP and Hinch SG (1997) Changes in size at maturity of Fraser River sockeye salmon(Oncorhynchus nerka) (1952-1993) and associationswith temperature Canadian Journal of Fisheries andAquatic Sciences v 54 p 1159ndash1165


(23) Welch DW Ishida Y and Nagasawa K (1998)Thermal limits and ocean migrations of sockeyesalmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) long-term conse-quences of global warming Canadian Journal ofFisheries and Aquatic Sciences v 55 p 937ndash948

(24) Downton MW and Miller KA (1998)Relationships between Alaska salmon catch andnorth Pacific climate on interannual and interdecadaltime scale Canadian Journal Fisheries and AquaticSciences v 55 p 2255ndash2265

(25) Quinn TP Hodgson S and Peven C (1997)Temperature flow and the migration of adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in theColumbia River Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences v 54 p 1349ndash1360

(26) Morrison J Quick MC and Foreman MGG(2002) Climate change in the Fraser River water-shed flow and temperature projections Journal of Hydrology v 263 no 1-4 p 230-244

(27) Mackas DL Thomson RE and Galbraith M(2001) Changes in the zooplankton community ofBritish Columbia continental margin and covariationwith oceanic conditions 1985ndash1999 CanadianJournal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science v 58 p 685ndash702

(28) Whitney F (1999) Climate change and salmonstocks Vancouver British Columbia Canada PacificFisheries Resource Conservation Council

(29) Petersen JH and Kitchell JF (2001) Climateregimes and water temperature changes in theColumbia River bioenergetic implication for predators of juvenile salmon Canadian Journal ofFisheries and Aquatic Science v 58 p 1831ndash1841

(30) Smith BD (2000) Trends in wild adult steelhead(Oncorhynchus mykiss) abundance for snowmelt-driven watersheds of British Columbia in relation tofreshwater discharge Canadian Journal of Fisheriesand Aquatic Sciences v 57 no 2 p 285ndash297

(31) Narcisse A (1999) Panel discussion what are themost alarming potential impacts of climate changeon salmon stocks in Climate Change and SalmonStocks Vancouver British Columbia Canada PacificFisheries Resource Conservation Council

(32) Beamish RJ Noakes DJ McFarlane GAPinnix W Sweeting R and King J (2000) Trendsin coho marine survival in relation to the regimeconcept Fisheries Oceanography v 9 no 1 p 114ndash119

(33) McFarlane GA King JR and Beamish RJ(2000) Have there been recent changes in climateAsk the fish Progress in Oceanography v 47 no 2ndash4 p 147ndash169

(34) Ward BR (2000) Declivity in steelhead(Oncorhynchus mykiss) recruitment at the KeoghRiver over the past decade Canadian Journal ofFisheries and Aquatic Sciences v 57 no 2 p 298ndash306

(35) Gough J (2001) Key issues in Atlantic fishery man-agement in Lifelines Canadarsquos East Coast FisheriesCanadian Museum of Civilization available on-lineat wwwcivilizationcahistlifelinesgough2ehtml05(accessed December 2002)

(36) Shaw RW editor (1997) Climate variability andclimate change in Atlantic Canada proceedings of aworkshop Halifax Nova Scotia 3-6 December 1996Environment Canada Atlantic Region OccasionalReport 9

(37) Drinkwater KF 1997 Impacts of climate variabilityon Atlantic Canadian fish and shellfish stocks inClimate Variability and Climate Change in AtlanticCanada Proceedings of a Workshop Halifax NovaScotia 3ndash6 December 1996 (ed) RW ShawEnvironment Canada Atlantic Region OccasionalReport 9

(38) Dutil JD Castonguay M Gilbert D and GasconD (1999) Growth condition and environmentalrelationships in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in thenorthern Gulf of St Lawrence and implications formanagement strategies in the northwest AtlanticCanadian Journal Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences v 56 p 1818ndash1831

(39) Colbourne E deYoung B and Rose GA (1997)Environmental analysis of Atlantic cod (Gadusmorhua) migration in relation to the seasonal variation on the northeast Newfoundland ShelfCanadian Journal Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences v 54 Suppl 1 p 149ndash157

(40) Keller AA and Klein-MacPhee G (2000) Impact of elevated temperature on the growth survival and trophic dynamics of winter flounder larvae a mesocosm study Canadian Journal of Fisheriesand Aquatic Sciences v 57 p 2382ndash2392

(41) Gilbert D (2001) Effects of a warmer ocean climate under 2 x CO2 atmosphere on the repro-duction and distribution of snow crab in easternCanada unpublished report prepared for theClimate Change Action Fund

(42) Harvell CD Mitchell CE Ward JR Altizer SDobson AP Ostfeld RS and Samuel MD(2002) Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota Science v 296 p 2158ndash2162

(43) Weise AM Levasseur M Saucier FJSenneville S Veacutezina A Bonneau E Sauveacute Gand Roy S (2001) The role of rainfall river run-off and wind on toxic A tamarense bloomdynamics in the Gulf of St Lawrence (easternCanada) analysis of historical data report prepared for the Climate Change Action Fund

(44) Burkholder JM (1998) Implications of harmfulmicroalgae and heterotrophic dinoflagellates in management of sustainable marine fisheriesEcological Applications v 8 no S1 p S37ndashS62


(45) Dempson JB OrsquoConnell MF and Cochrane NM(2001) Potential impact of climate warming onrecreational fishing opportunities for Atlantic salmon(Salmo salar L) in Newfoundland Canada FisheriesManagement and Ecology v 8 no 1 p 69ndash82

(46) Swansberg E and El-Jabi N (2001) Impact of climate change on river water temperatures andfish growth unpublished report prepared for theClimate Change Action Fund

(47) Good SP Dodson JJ Meekan MG and RyanDAJ (2001) Annual variation in size-selectivemortality of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) fryCanadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciencesv 58 p 1187ndash1195

(48) Arndt SKA Cunjak RA and Benfey TJ (2002)Effect of summer floods and spatial-temporal scaleon growth and feeding of juvenile Atlantic salmon in two New Brunswick streams Transactions of theAmerican Fisheries Society v 131 no 4 p 607ndash622

(49) Chmura G (2001) The fate of salt marshes in Atlantic Canada project report prepared for the Climate Change Action Fund

(50) Fisheries and Oceans Canada (2001b) Arctic researchFisheries and Oceans Canada available on-line athttpwwwdfompogccaregionsCENTRALindex_ehtm (accessed December 2002)


(52) Vinnikov KY Robock A Stouffer RJ WalshJE Parkinson CL Cavalieri DJ Mitchell JFBGarrett D and Zakharov VF (1999) Global warm-ing and northern hemisphere sea ice extent Sciencev 286 p 1934ndash1937

(53) Comiso JC (2002) A rapidly declining perennialsea ice cover in the Arctic Geophysical ResearchLetters v 29 n 20 p 171ndash174

(54) Rothrock DA Yu Y and Maykut GA (1999)Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover GeophysicalResearch Letters v 26 no 23 p 3469

(55) Holloway G and Sou T (2001) Is Arctic sea icerapidly thinning Meridian FallWinter p 8ndash10

(56) Kerr RA (2002) Whither Arctic ice Less of if for sure Science v 297 p 1491

(57) Kerr RA (1999) Will the Arctic Ocean lose all its ice Science v 286 p 1828

(58) Hansell RIC Malcolm JR Welch H JefferiesRL and Scott PA (1998) Atmospheric change andbiodiversity in the Arctic Environmental Monitoringand Assessment v 49 no 2ndash3 p 303ndash325

(59) Tynan CT and DeMaster DP (1997) Observationsand predictions of Arctic climatic change potentialeffects on marine mammals Arctic v 50 no 4 p 308ndash322

(60) Churchill Northern Studies Centre (2000)Addressing climate change in Hudson Bay an integrated approach Churchill Northern StudiesCentre report from the Circumpolar Ecosystems2000 Symposium held in Churchill ManitobaFebruary 16ndash23 2000 26 p

(61) Stirling I Lunn NJ and Iacozza J (1999) Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to climatic change Arctic v 52 no 3 p 294ndash306

(62) Burns WCG (2000) From the harpoon to the heat climate change and the International WhalingCommission in the 21st Century report prepared for the Pacific Institute for Studies in DevelopmentEnvironment and Security available on-line athttpwwwpacinstorgIWCOPpdf (accessedDecember 2002)

(63) Finley KJ (2001) Natural history and conservationof the Greenland whale or bowhead in the north-west Atlantic Arctic v 54 no 1 p 55ndash76

(64) Meyer JL Sale MJ Mulholland PJ and PoffNL (1999) Impacts of climate change on aquaticecosystem functioning and health Journal of theAmerican Water Resources Association v 35 no 6 p 1373ndash1384

(65) Hauer FR Baron JS Campbell DH FauschKD Hostetler SW Leavesley GH Leavitt PRMcKnight DM and Stanford JA (1997)Assessment of climate change and freshwaterecosystems of the Rocky Mountains USA andCanada Hydrological Processes v 11 no 8 p 903ndash924

(66) Dockray JJ Morgan IJ Reid SD and WoodCM (1998) Responses of juvenile rainbow troutunder food limitation to chronic low pH and elevatedsummer temperatures alone and in combinationJournal of Fish Biology v 52 no 1 p 62ndash82

(67) Reid SD Dockray JJ Linton TK McDonaldDG and Wood CM (1997) Effects of chronic environmental acidification and a summer globalwarming scenario protein synthesis in juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) CanadianJournal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences v 54 p 2014ndash2024

(68) Van Winkle WK Rose KA Shuter BJ JagerHI and Holcomb BD (1997) Effects of climatictemperature change on growth survival and reproduction of rainbow trout predictions from a simulation model Canadian Journal of Fisheriesand Aquatic Sciences v 54 p 2526ndash2542

(69) Lebreton GTO and Beamish FWH (2000)Interannual growth variation in fish and tree ringsCanadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciencesv 57 p 2345ndash2356


(70) Magnuson JJ Webster KE Assel RA BowserCJ Dillon PJ Eaton JG Evans HE Fee EJHall RI Mortsch LR Schindler DW and Quinn FH (1997) Potential effects of climatechanges on aquatic systems Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian Shield region HydrologicalProcesses v 11 no 8 p 825ndash871

(71) Mortsch LD (1998) Assessing the impact of climatechange on the Great Lakes shoreline wetlandsClimatic Change v 40 no 2 p 391ndash416

(72) Hudon C (1997) Impact of water level fluctuationson St Lawrence River aquatic vegetation CanadianJournal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences v 54 no 12 p 2853ndash2865

(73) Schindler DW (2001) The cumulative effects of climate warming and other human stresses on Canadian freshwaters in the new millenniumCanadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciencev 58 no 1 p 18ndash29

(74) Fang X and Stefan HG (1998) Potential climatewarming effects on ice covers of small lakes in the contiguous US Cold Regions Science andTechnology v 27 no 2 p 119ndash140


(76) Hostetler SW and Small EE (1999) Response ofNorth American freshwater lakes to simulated futureclimates Journal of the American Water ResourcesAssociation v 35 no 6 p 1625ndash1637

(77) Fang X and Stefan HG (1999) Projections of climate change effects on water temperature characteristics of small lakes in the contiguous USClimatic Change v 42 no 2 p 377ndash412

(78) Fang X and Stefan HG (2000) Projected climatechange effects on winterkill in shallow lakes in thenorthern United States Environmental Managementv 25 no 3 p 291ndash304

(79) Choi JS (1998) Lake ecosystem responses to rapidclimate change Environmental Monitoring andAssessment v 49 p 281ndash290

(80) Snucins E and Gunn J (2000) Interannual variationin the thermal structure of clear and colored lakesLimnology and Oceanography v 45 p 1639ndash1646

(81) King JR Shuter BJ and Zimmerman AP (1999)Empirical links between thermal habitat fish growthand climate change Transactions of the AmericanFisheries Society v 128 no 4 p 656ndash665

(82) Hesslein R H Turner MA Kasian SEM andGuss D (2001) The potential for climate changeto interact with the recovery of Boreal lakes fromacidificationmdasha preliminary investigation usingELArsquos database report prepared for the ClimateChange Action Fund

(83) Ricciardi A and Rasmussen JB (1998) Predictingthe identity and impact of future biological invadersa priority for aquatic resource management CanadianJournal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences v 55 p 1759ndash1765

(84) Vander Zanden MJ Cassleman JM andRasmussen JB (1999) Stable isotope evidence for the food web consequences of species invasionsin lakes Nature v 401 p 464ndash467

(85) Koumlck G Doblander C Wieser W Berger B andBright D (2001) Fish from sensitive ecosystems as bioindicators of global climate change metalaccumulation and stress response in char from small lakes in the high Arctic Zoology v 104Suppl IV p 18

(86) Clair TA Ehrman J and Higuchi K (1998)Changes to the runoff of Canadian ecozones under a doubled CO2 atmosphere Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences v 55 no 11 p 2464ndash2477


(88) Turner M (2001) Testing the reversibility of climate change impacts on in-lake metabolism of dissolved organic carbon and its aftermath forBoreal forest lakes unpublished report preparedfor the Climate Change Action Fund

(89) Warren FJ Waddington JM Day SM andBourbonniere R (2001) The effect of drought onhydrology and sulphate dynamics in a temperatewetland Hydrological Processes v 15 no 16 p 3133ndash3150

(90) Cohen S Miller K Duncan K Gregorich EGroffman P Kovacs P Magantildea V McKnight DMills E Schimel D (2001) North America inClimate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation andVulnerability (ed) JJ McCarthy OF CanzianiNA Leary DJ Dokken and KS White contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Reportof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeCambridge University Press p 735ndash800 (availableon-line at httpwwwipccchpubreportshtmaccessed December 2002)

(91) Cohen SJ (1997) What if and so what in northwest Canada could climate change make a difference to the future of the Mackenzie BasinArctic v 50 no 4 p 293ndash307

(92) Beamish RJ (2002) An essay by Dr Richard JBeamish In Cites September 2002 available on-line at httpwwwin-citescomscientistsDrRichardBeamishhtml (accessed December 2002)

(93) Hutchings JA (2002) Collapse and recovery ofmarine fishes Nature v 406 p 882ndash885


(94) Troadec JP (2000) Adaptation opportunities to cli-mate variability and change in the exploitation andutilisation of marine living resources EnvironmentalMonitoring and Assessment v 61 no 1 p 101ndash112

(95) Jamieson GS and Levings CO (2001) Marine protected areas in Canadamdashimplications for bothconservation and fisheries management CanadianJournal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences v 58 p 138ndash156

(96) Shuter BJ Minns CK and Lester N (2002)Climate change freshwater fish and fisheriescase studies from Ontario and their use in assessing potential impacts report prepared for the Climate Change Action Fund

(97) Langton RW and Haedrich RL (1997)Ecosystem-based management in NorthwestAtlantic Groundfish Perspectives on a FisheryCollapse (ed) J Boreman BS Nakashima JAWilson JA and RL Kendall American FisheriesSociety Bethesda Maryland p 111ndash138

(98) Canadian Institute for Climate Studies (2000)Sustainable seafood in a changing climate workshop report University of Victoria May 25ndash26 2000 available on-line atwwwcicsuviccaworkshop (accessed May 2003)

(99) Youngson AF and Verspoor E (1998) Interactionsbetween wild and introduced Atlantic salmon(Salmo salar) Canadian Journal of Fisheries andAquatic Sciences v 55 suppl 1 p 153ndash160

(100) Wilzbach MA Mather ME Folt CL Moore ANaiman RJ Youngson AF and McMenemy J(1998) Proactive responses to human impacts thatbalance development and Atlantic salmon (Salmosalar) conservation an integrative model CanadianJournal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences v 55 p 288ndash302

(101) Jones SA Fischhoff B and Lach D (1998) An integrated impact assessment of the effects of climate change on the Pacific Northwest salmonfishery Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal v 16 no 3 p 227ndash237

(102) Arnott S Gunn J and Yan N (2001) The effects of long-term climate change and short-term climate-related events on the biota of Boreal shield lakes unpublished report preparedfor the Climate Change Action Fund

(103) Miller KA (2000) Pacific salmon fisheries climateinformation and adaptation in a conflict-ridden context Climatic Change v 45 no 1 p 37ndash61

Coastal Zone

Canada has more than 240 000 kilometres of oceanshoreline more than any other country in theworld(2) The coastal zone broadly defined as near-coast waters and the adjacent land area forms adynamic interface of land and water of high ecolog-ical diversity and critical economic importance(3)

Estuaries beaches dunes wetlands and intertidaland nearshore zones support a diverse range ofmarine and terrestrial species and are key areas forfisheries and recreation Coastal infrastructure isessential for trade transportation and tourism andis the lifeblood of many coastal municipalities Asimilar interface extends along the shores of largelakes for that reason the Great Lakes in particularare often included in discussions of Canadarsquos coastalzone(4) Comparable issues also arise in areas adjacentto other large Canadian lakes (eg reference 5)

Climate changes of the magnitude projected for thepresent century by the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) would impact the coastalzone in many ways These include changes inwater levels wave patterns the magnitude of stormsurges and the duration and thickness of seasonalice coverage(3) Emphasis is commonly placed onwater level changes because these would be exten-sive though variable throughout the coastal zoneMean global sea level rise resulting from thermalexpansion of ocean waters and increased melting ofglaciers and ice caps will be the primary influencefor water level changes along marine coasts(67)

Water level changes along the shores of large lakeswould relate to changes in regional precipitationand evaporation For the Great Lakes water levelsare projected to decline over the coming decades asa result of climate change (reference 8 see lsquoWaterResourcesrsquo chapter)

Although there is strong scientific agreement thatmean global sea level will continue to rise throughoutand beyond the present century there remains uncer-tainty regarding the magnitude of this change Using arange of emission scenarios the IPCC projects that

global average sea level will rise between 9 and88 centimetres in the period 1990 to 2100(7) Thislarge range reflects both the output of future temper-ature scenarios and gaps in our knowledge of oceanand hydrological processes(7) It is also important torecognize that sea level rise will continue and per-haps accelerate in the following century due to thelag time between atmospheric temperature increasesand ocean heating and glacier melting

From an impacts and adaptation perspective it islocal changes in relative sea level that are impor-tant and these can differ significantly from globalchanges In addition to changes in climate regionalsea level changes are affected by geological processesof the Earthrsquos crust and mantle that alter the rela-tive position of land and sea Changes in currentsupwelling tidal range and other oceanic processesalso influence relative sea level at the local levelFor significant parts of Canadarsquos Arctic coasts sealevel is currently falling in response to geologicalprocesses whereas sea level is currently rising inother areas including much of the Atlantic andBeaufort Sea coasts(9) The total amount of sea levelchange experienced at a particular location is acombination of all of these factors Hence not allareas of the country will experience the same rateof future sea level change

An initial assessment of the sensitivity of Canadarsquoscoasts to sea level rise was presented by Shaw et al(10) who concluded that more than 7 000 kilo-metres of coastline are highly sensitive includingmuch of the Maritime Provinces a large part of theBeaufort Sea coast and the Fraser Delta region ofBritish Columbia (Figure 1) Sensitivity is influencedby a variety of factors including the geological char-acteristics of the shoreline (eg rock type reliefcoastal landforms) and ocean processes (eg tidalrange wave height) Whether the coastline isemerging or submerging at present is also extremelyimportant in determining sensitivity to future climate changes

ldquoRoughly seven million Canadians live in coastal areas

where many people in smaller communities depend on

the oceansrsquo resources and tourism to make a livingrdquo(1)

C O A S TA L Z O N E 115


The main physical impact of accelerated sea level rise would be an intensification of the rates of shore-line change that occur in the coastal zone at presentProcesses such as beach erosion and retreat bluff ero-sion and landward migration of barrier islands wouldcontinue although more rapidly and extensively(9)

Other major concerns include the inundation ofcoastal lowlands and an increase in storm-surgeflooding These changes could result in a suite ofbiophysical and socio-economic impacts on thecoastal zone (Figure 2) that would ultimately impacta range of sectors including fisheries transportationtourism and recreation and communities

The decline of Great Lakes water levels as a resultof climate change would significantly impactcoastal communities infrastructure and activitiesWhile some impacts may be beneficial (eg widerbeaches less flooding) many will be negative For example lower lake levels could necessitateincreased dredging of marinas and ports reduceshipping opportunities and affect water supplies of shoreline municipalities(11)

Human response and our capacity to adapt willplay a large role in determining the vulnerability of the coastal zone to climate change This chapterexamines the potential impacts of climate changeon Canadarsquos marine and Great Lakes coastalregions focusing primarily on issues related toinfrastructure and communities The discussion ofpotential adaptation options highlights the com-plexity of issues facing resource managers andcommunities in this unique setting Reflecting theliterature available emphasis is placed on physicalimpacts while recognizing the need for increasedresearch on the potential social and economicimpacts of climate change The wide range of bio-logical and ecological concerns that climate changecould present for the coastal zone are discussedprimarily in the lsquoFisheriesrsquo chapter of this report

FIGURE 1 Sensitivity of Canadarsquos marine coasts to sea level rise(9)


Previous Work

ldquoClimate changes may have significant impacts

on coastal stability flood and storm hazards

and socio-economic activity or investment in

the coastal zonerdquo(12)

As part of the Canada Country Study coastal zoneissues were addressed in the regional chapters ofAtlantic Canada(12) British Columbia(13) the Arctic(6)

and Ontario(14) These chapters served to broadlydefine the potential impacts of climate change Thekey findings of each with respect to the coastalzone are summarized below

Sea level rise is a significant concern in AtlanticCanada where most of the coast has been under-going slow submergence for several thousand yearsdue to non-climate factors(12) Global climate changewould serve to accelerate the rate of sea level rise

Major potential impacts include accelerated shore-line changes flood hazards storm damage andassociated property loss with utility (eg oil andgas) infrastructure and port facilities recognized as being particularly sensitive(12) Communities vulnerable at present to coastal erosion and storm-related flood andor surge impacts would be athighest risk

In the Canadian Arctic higher air and water tem-peratures would lead to longer open water seasonsand larger areas of open water which in turn couldresult in intensified wave development more fre-quent storm surges and increased coastal erosionand flooding(6) This would result in reducedcoastal stability which could be accelerated insome areas by permafrost degradation in the terres-trial component of the coastal zone These impactsare expected to be most pronounced along theBeaufort Sea coast including the Mackenzie Deltaand Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula where relative sea levelis rising at present(6)

FIGURE 2 Potential biophysical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change in the coastal zone (modified from reference 3 )

Climate changeand

sea level rise






On some reaches of Canadarsquos west coast climatechange could result in increased erosion andorsedimentation as well as flooding of low-lyingareas Other potential impacts include loss of wetlands changes in species distribution and abundance and altered ecosystem structure Therealso exists the potential for significant economic costs related to protecting coastal communities and beach nourishment particularly in the greaterVancouver region(13)

In the Great Lakes average water levels coulddecline to record low levels during the latter part of this century(14) A drop in water levels wouldadversely affect commercial navigation and shorefacilities by increasing the operating costs for ports and shipping channels in the Great LakesndashSt Lawrence Seaway system Furthermore changesin water temperatures extent of seasonal ice coverand storminess would impact shoreline changesecosystems infrastructure and tourism and recre-ation in the Great Lakes coastal region

Discussion of adaptation to climate change alongmarine coasts in the Canada Country Study centredaround strategies of retreat accommodation andprotection as promoted by the IPCC(12 13) In mostcases impacts could be reduced by retreat oraccommodation whereas protection may requiresignificant investment that may only be justifiablewhere significant fixed infrastructure is at risk(12)

Examples of these three strategies are discussedlater in this chapter

Impacts

Building on the research summarized in the CanadaCountry Study much of the recent climate changeresearch in the coastal zone has involved moredetailed assessment of vulnerabilities related to spe-cific locations often through the use of case studies

Impacts on the Marine Coasts

ldquoMany coastal areas will experience increased

levels of flooding accelerated erosion loss of

wetlandshellip and seawater intrusion into freshwater

sources as a result of climate changerdquo(15)

The impacts of climate change on Canadarsquos threemarine coasts will result primarily from changes insea level and the extent and severity of storms(3)

Increased wave energy reduced sea-ice coverincreased ground temperatures and enhancedstorm-surge activity would also contribute to the netimpacts with significant implications for coastalsettlements and infrastructure(3) In general climatechange is expected to exacerbate existing hazardsthroughout the coastal zone(16)

Atlantic Coast

ldquoIn the Maritimes rising water levels could impact

a wide range of human structures and activitieshellip

flooding and dyke breaching in the Bay of Fundy

is of particular concernrdquo(17)

The analysis of Shaw et al(9) identified more than80 of the coastlines of Nova Scotia New Brunswickand Prince Edward Island as being moderately to high-ly sensitive to sea level rise (Figure 1) Highly sensitiveareas include the entire North Shore of Prince EdwardIsland the Gulf Coast of New Brunswick much of theAtlantic coast of Nova Scotia and parts of the urbancentres of Charlottetown and Saint John The ruggedrocky coast that characterizes much of Newfoundlandand Labrador is generally considered to have low sen-sitivity to sea level rise but there are areas of lowerlying moderately and highly sensitive coastline in thatprovince where several communities are located

Accelerated sea level rise would inundate coastallowlands and erode susceptible shorelines Parts of the coast are expected to be permanently sub-merged(10) while freshwater coastal marshes couldbecome salt marshes and dykes enclosing areaslying below current high tide would have to beraised to avoid inundation by storm surges Rapidsea level rise could also submerge existing saltmarshes This will place at risk regions wheremarshes are unable to migrate inland due forexample to existing infrastructure Sea level riseand storm impacts have also been related to forestdecline at sites lying close to sea level as a resultof increasing water table height and saltwater intru-sion(18) Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers isalso a concern for coastal communities and activitiesdependent of these aquifers for freshwater


In addition to sea level rise changes in storm fre-quency and intensity as well as changes in sea-icecover due to climate change could potentially affectthe Atlantic region(12) More frequent storms wouldnot only be a concern in themselves but would alsoincrease the probability of intense storms occurringin conjunction with a high tide thus increasing therisk of extreme water levels and coastal flooding Adecrease in seasonal sea-ice extent would result inincreased wave development and wave energy andcause increased coastal erosion during winter

Recent case studies allow a preliminary assessment of the potential impacts of climate change at the local and regional scale For example inCharlottetown where relative sea level has risenabout 32 centimetres since 1911 accelerated sealevel rise induced by climate change could createsignificant problems for urban infrastructure(19)

When high sea level is considered in combinationwith the impacts of more intense storm surges sig-nificant economic impacts could result (see Box 1)Along the north shore of Prince Edward Island the combined effects of rising sea level decreasedsea ice and increased wave energy would result ingreatly enhanced coastal erosion A doubling ofpresent coastal erosion rates would lead to a loss

of 10 of current assessed value in the detailedstudy area in 20 years and almost 50 in 100years(19) Such erosion would also affect saltwatermarshes and coastal dunes both of which are significant for the tourism industry(19)

BOX 1 What are the costs of sea level rise inCharlottetown Prince Edward Island(19)

In Charlottetown many commercial and residentialproperties are located in zones that are vulnerableto flooding events caused by storm surgesResearchers estimate that increases in storm-surgeflooding consistent with sea level projections forthe next 100 years could cause damages to prop-erties assessed at values ranging from $172 to$202 million Tourism could also be impacted with30 to 49 heritage properties being threatened by an increased risk of flood damage City infrastruc-ture (eg roads water pipes sewers) would alsobe impacted

FIGURE 3 Projected flooding of present-day Truro Nova Scotia based on a storm surge sea level similar to that ofthe 1869 Saxby Gale(62)

BEFORE AFTER

Simulation courtesy of Natural Resources Canada and Fisheries and Oceans Canada


Another sensitive region is the head of the Bay ofFundy where increased flooding and dyke breachingis a potential consequence of future climate changeFigure 3 depicts the extent of potential flooding ofpresent-day Truro Nova Scotia if it were subjectedto a storm surge similar to that of the 1869 SaxbyGale (the highest historic water level event in theupper Bay of Fundy20) The extent of potential present flooding reflects the 44-centimetre rise in sealevel that has occurred since that time The extent of flooding would be even higher in the future as aresult of accelerated sea level rise Degradation ofcoastal salt marshes due to climate change is also an important concern in this region (see Box 2)

Climate change and sea level rise may also exacer-bate other coastal zone hazards For example manycommunities in Newfoundland and Labrador havedeveloped at the base of steep slopes where there isrisk of damage from landslides and avalanches(22)

As these are often triggered by extreme climaticevents there is potential for increased frequency ofsuch hazards as a result of climate change

Arctic Coast

ldquoPortions of the Beaufort Sea coastline are now

undergoing rapid coastal retreat accentuated by

permafrost meltingrdquo (17)

The coastline of the Canadian Arctic is character-ized by biophysical processes and socio-economicactivities that are greatly influenced by sea icewhich at present covers most of the coastal inter-island channel and ocean regions for 8 to 12months of the year The past 3 to 4 decades haveseen a significant decrease in the extent of seasonalsea-ice cover as documented by satellite imagery(eg reference 23 see lsquoFisheriesrsquo chapter) Thistrend is projected to continue under scenarios offuture climate change such that some studies project only very limited summer sea-ice cover bythe end of this century(24)

Changes in sea-ice cover will likely be the most significant direct impact of climate change on thenorthern coastal region with potential consequencesfor the breadth of the Arctic coastline Reduction insea-ice cover and corresponding increase in theextent and duration of open water conditions wouldimpact northerners by affecting travel personal

safety accessibility to communities and huntinggrounds and other traditional activities A reductionin seasonal sea-ice coverage could also open largeareas of the Arctic Archipelago including theNorthwest Passage to increased marine shipping(see lsquoTransportationrsquo chapter) While this could

BOX 2 Fate of salt marshes in Atlantic Canada(21)

Tidal salt marshes in Atlantic Canada are diverseand highly productive ecosystems They exist withina small elevation range and are assumed to main-tain elevation in equilibrium with changes in sealevel However accelerated sea level rise resultingfrom climate change could mean that salt marshesare unable to maintain this equilibrium and thatincreased tidal flooding could result in loss of themarshes or conversion to other types of vegetation

As part of a research project examining the vul-nerability of Atlantic salt marshes researchersfound that salt marshes are generally resilient topresent rates of sea level rise However they alsoconcluded that some marshes may become sub-merged in the future as a result of accelerated sea level rise induced by climate change Themarshes studied were also found to be sensitive tosediment supply and human-induced hydrologicaland management changes

Photo courtesy of Gail Chmura

Coring for Spartina patens in a salt marsh


present significant new opportunities for economicdevelopment concerns have also been expressedregarding negative impacts on Arctic marine eco-systems(25) and traditional ways of life as well aspotential sovereignty and security issues(26 27)

Rates of shoreline change in the Arctic would bealtered both by changes in sea ice and by changesin relative sea level resulting from global warmingAreas now protected from wave action by persistentsea ice would be more severely impacted than areasthat are seasonally reworked by waves at presentThe impacts of increased wave activity would be amplified in areas such as the Beaufort Seacoast including the outer Mackenzie Delta andTuktoyaktuk Peninsula which consist of poorlyconsolidated sediments often with significant volumes of massive ground ice and are undergoingsubmergence at present (see Box 3) Along terrestri-al slopes in the coastal zone increased groundtemperatures and permafrost degradation couldreduce slope stability and increase the frequency of landslides(28) thereby presenting risks for community and industrial infrastructure

Case studies in the communities of Tuktoyaktuk(30 31 32)

and Sachs Harbour(33) both located along highlysensitive coasts document ongoing impacts thatwould be amplified by future climate changes Partsof Tuktoyaktuk experienced more than 100 metres ofcoastal retreat between 1935 and 1971 This erosionwas responsible for the destruction or relocation ofseveral community buildings Introduction of protec-tion measures in 1971 has resulted in stabilization atabout the 1986 shoreline position but has requiredconsiderable maintenance Researchers noted thateven if erosion in the community is halted the penin-sula on which it is located is likely to be breached atits southern end in 50 to 100 years(30) and that theisland that protects the harbour mouth at present isalso likely to be eroded away over the same time-frame(32) Based on local observations coastal erosionand permafrost degradation are also issues in SachsHarbour on Banks Island Recent changes in theextent and predictability of sea-ice cover have beenidentified by community residents as new challengesto maintaining traditional ways of life(33)

Pacific CoastWith the exception of the outer coast of VancouverIsland relative sea level has risen along most of theBritish Columbia coast over the past 95 years(34)

However the rate of relative sea level rise has gen-erally been low due to the fact that geological uplift(tectonics) has largely offset the increase in mostareas(35) This fact combined with the steep androcky character of the Pacific coast results in thisregion having an overall low sensitivity to sea levelrise Nevertheless there are small but importantareas of the Pacific coast that are considered highlysensitive(10) including parts of the Queen CharlotteIslands(10) the Fraser Delta and unlithified sandcliffs at Vancouver(10) and portions of Victoria(36)

The main issues of concern include breaching ofdykes flooding erosion and the resultant risks to coastal ecosystems infrastructure(34 36 37) andarchaeological sites(17)

BOX 3 Sea level hazards on the CanadianBeaufort Sea coast(29)

This study undertook a regional analysis of the sen-sitivity of the Canadian Beaufort Sea coast to sealevel rise and climate warming using historic datato examine the influence of weather conditions icecover and water levels on erosion Results indicatehigh variability across the region especially withrespect to storms and water levels

For highly sensitive areas characterized by highpast and present rates of erosion a GIS (geographicinformation system) database was used to createan index of erosion hazard A storm-surge modelwas also developed to help evaluate potential floodrisk under future conditions


Beaufort Sea coast


The Fraser Delta which supports a large and rapidlyexpanding population is one of the most highlysensitive areas on the Pacific coast Parts of thedelta are already below sea level with extensivedyke systems in place to protect these lowlandsfrom flooding(37) Relative sea level is rising in thisregion continually increasing the risk of erosionand shoreline instability flooding and wetlandinundation Accelerated sea level rise resulting fromclimate change would further increase these risks(9)

Box 4 describes some potential impacts in the deltaregion assessed as part of a broader study of theGeorgia Basin In addition the Fraser Delta is anarea of relatively high seismic risk and the potentialimpacts of an earthquake on the stability of the deltacould be worsened by higher sea levels(38)

Climate change and sea level rise would exacerbateother coastal hazards Higher mean sea levels couldincrease the potential damage associated withtsunamis (ocean waves generated by submarine earthquakes) Vancouver Islandrsquos outer coasts andinlets are most vulnerable to this hazard(39) Anotherconcern is a scenario in which high tides El Nintildeoinfluences and storm events coincide to produce short-lived extreme high sea levels(36) For example duringthe most recent El Nintildeo Southern Oscillation event a sea level increase of 40 centimetres resulted in asmuch as 12 metres of coastal retreat in some areas(40)

Impacts on the Great LakesndashSt Lawrence Coast

Over 40 million people live within the Great Lakes

Basin and the lakes have greatly influenced the

settlement economic prosperity and culture of

the region(41)

Precipitation temperature and evaporation are thepredominant climate variables controlling waterlevels in the Great Lakes(42) Fluctuating water levels are a natural characteristic of these lakes For example during the period of record (from1918 to 1998) lake levels have fluctuated withinranges of 119 metres for Lake Superior and 202 metres for Lake Ontario(11) Future climatechanges such as those projected by the IPCC areanticipated to result in an overall reduction in netwater supplies and long-term lake level declinesuch that average water levels could decline torecord low levels during the latter part of this centu-ry (references 14 43 44 see lsquoWater Resourcesrsquochapter) Climate warming would also reduce theduration of lake ice cover which presently offersseasonal protection for much of the shoreline fromsevere winter storms

Water level changes of the magnitude projected byrecent studies (30ndash100 centimetres by 2050 refer-ence 8) could affect the Great Lakes coastal regionby restricting access of boating and shipping atdocks marinas and in connecting channels (seeFigure 4) Port infrastructure used by the GreatLakes shipping industry would be similarly affected and lower lake levels could force vessels to decrease their cargo capacity in order to continue using existing harbours and shipping lanes (see lsquoTransportationrsquo chapter)

Lower lake levels would also impact beaches withthe amount of new exposure a function of waterdepth lakebed composition and slope and waterlevel decline(45) such that larger beach surfaces couldincrease recreation space However researchers havefound that water levels projected to occur under arange of climate change scenarios are generally wellbelow those desired by recreational users(46)

Furthermore exposed mud flats could reduce shoreline aesthetics and there is the potential thatexposed lakebeds could include toxic sediments(43)

BOX 4 Impacts of sea level rise in the Fraser Delta(37)

The potential impacts of climate change on the FraserDelta which lies within British Columbiarsquos GeorgiaBasin were examined as part of a broader regionalsustainability study For this study areas lying lessthan 1 metre above current sea level were defined asbeing sensitive to sea level rise The study concludedthat with a 1 metre sea level rise natural ecosystemswould be threatened more than 4 600 hectares offarmland could be inundated saltwater intrusionwould become a problem for agriculture and ground-water supplies and more than 15 000 hectares ofindustrial and residential urban areas would be at riskHowever appropriate adaptations have the potential toreduce vulnerability in this area


High water levels and storm-induced flooding areongoing problems for commercial residential agricultural and industrial activities in the GreatLakes coastal region(47) While lower lake levelscould reduce the frequency and severity of floodrisk this could be counterbalanced by pressure for development closer to new shorelines(11)

Other coastal infrastructure could also be affectedby lower water levels resulting from future climatechange For example municipal and industrial waterintakes have been designed to function within thehistorical range of lake level fluctuations(48) Waterintakes located in relatively shallow water such asthose in Lake St Clair may experience increasedepisodes of supply odour and taste problems dueto insufficient water depth and increased weedgrowth and algae concentrations(11)

Adaptation

ldquoAdaptation options for coastal management are

most effective when incorporated with policies

in other areas such as disaster mitigation and

land-use plansrdquo(49)

The physical impacts of climate change on thecoastal zone will vary by location and depend on a range of biophysical and socio-economic factors

including human response(50) Appropriate adaptationwill play a pivotal role in reducing the magnitudeand extent of potential impacts thereby decreasingthe vulnerability of the coastal zone to climatechange In many cases existing techniques and technologies used to deal with past water levelchanges could also serve as effective adaptations for future climate change

To date relatively little attention has been given tounderstanding the motivations for adaptation andthe barriers that may exist to successful adaptationRather most of the adaptation literature examinesmethods used to address changes in water levelsOver recent years three trends have been observedin coastal adaptation and associated technology use

1) increase in soft protection (eg beach nourish-ment and wetland restoration) retreat andaccommodation

2) reliance on technology such as geographic infor-mation systems to manage information and

3) awareness of the need for coastal adaptationthat is appropriate for local conditions(51)

Strategies for Dealing with Sea Level Rise

Many believe that on a global scale the conse-quences of sea level rise could be disastrous ifappropriate adaptation measures are not taken(49)

The following discussion focuses on the three basic strategies of protect accommodate andretreat(3) and the range of technological optionsavailable for each

ProtectProtecting the coastline through mechanisms suchas seawalls and groins has been the traditionalapproach to dealing with sea level rise in manyparts of the world The goal of protection is gener-ally to allow existing land use activities to continuedespite rising water levels(3) Such measures rangefrom large-scale public projects to small-scaleefforts by individual property owners Traditionalprotection measures tend to be expensive and mayhave limited long-term effectiveness in highly vulnerable locations(19)

FIGURE 4 Impacts of recent low Great Lakes water levelson the Lake Huron shoreline at Oliphant Ontario

Photo courtesy of Ryan Schwartz


Consequently there has been growing recognitionduring the last few years of the benefits of lsquosoftrsquoprotection measures including beach nourishmentand wetland restoration and creation(51) Thesemeasures can be implemented as sea level risesand are therefore more flexible than for exampleseawalls the expansion of which may require theremoval or addition of structures It should benoted however that the transition from hard tosoft protection requires knowledge and understand-ing of physical coastal processes in the region(3)

Soft protection can enhance the natural resilienceof the coastal zone and is generally less expensivethan hard protection which can lead to unwantedeffects on erosion and sedimentation patterns if notproperly implemented(51)

AccommodateAccommodation involves continued occupation ofcoastal land while adjustments are made to humanactivities andor infrastructure to accommodate sea level changes and thereby reduce the overallseverity of the impact(3) Accommodation strategiesmay include redesigning existing structures imple-menting legislation to encourage appropriate landuse and development such as rolling easementsand enhancing natural resilience through coastaldune and wetland rehabilitation Examples includeelevating buildings on piles shifting agricultureproduction to salt-tolerant crops(3) controllingandor prohibiting removal of beach sediment(19)

and developing warning systems for extreme high sea level events flooding and erosion(36)

RetreatRetreat involves avoiding risk in order to eliminate adirect impact(3) With this strategy no attempts aremade to protect the land from the sea Instead landthat is threatened by sea level rise is either aban-doned when conditions become intolerable or notdeveloped in the first place For example legislatedsetback regulations may be used to reduce futurelosses from erosion(19) In some cases resettlementmay be a cost-effective long-term alternative tocoastal protection works(19)


Researchers recommend that adaptation to climatechange in the coastal zone be considered as a component of a larger integrated management

framework as promoted in Canadarsquos Oceans ActThis would help to manage the complexity of theadaptation process and encourage researchers policy-makers and stakeholders to work together(52)

Stakeholders must be involved from the beginningof the process and actively engaged in discussionsof potential adaptive measures(53)

To assess the vulnerability of a region or communityit is necessary to consider both the magnitude of thepotential impacts as well as our capacity to adapt tothose impacts An important factor of such analysisis the rate at which change is expected to occur For example a gradual rise in sea level may allowmost coastal infrastructure to be adapted during the course of normal maintenance or replacementmaking accommodation or retreat viable options In contrast a more rapid rate could necessitateexpensive protective measures or replacement in less than the design lifespan of the facilityAssessment often involves conducting specific case studies in the region of concern (see Box 5)The following sections discuss specific regionalexamples of adaptation to climate change Whilethese include suggestions for adaptation optionsdetailed examinations of the processes of adaptationand the viability of potential adaptation optionshave in most cases not been conducted

Prince Edward IslandIn Prince Edward Island potential adaptationstrategies that have been identified and discussedin the literature include identification and monitor-ing of hazards (eg flood mapping) managedretreat or avoidance (eg restricted development in sensitive areas) accommodation and enhancedawareness-raising and public education(19) Themost appropriate adaptation measures will dependon the conditions at the specific site of concern For example retreat is likely not a viable option inurban settings such as Charlottetown In these areasstrategies that incorporate elements of accommoda-tion and protection would have to be consideredwith both hard and soft protection likely necessaryto protect valuable coastal infrastructure(19)

On Prince Edward Islandrsquos north shore a complexsystem of sand dunes is a major tourist attractionthat is at risk of being breached by storm-inducedwave activity These dunes serve as a natural barrierthat protects the shoreline from ongoing coastal


processes the absence of which could lead to accel-erated erosion in sensitive areas(19) Adaptationstrategies along the north shore could includeaccommodating rising sea levels by enhancing natu-ral resilience through dune rehabilitation and softprotection such as beach nourishment and sandstorage(19) Overall a range of adaptation strategieswould be needed in Prince Edward Island andwould be most successful if several options were to be considered at various scales in deliberationsthat include stakeholder participation(19)

Fraser DeltaStructures are already used in the Fraser Delta toprotect the land from the sea However if extremeflooding and storm-surge events were to occur

more frequently as a result of future climatechange there would be an increased risk of breach-ing and additional damage to dyke systems(37)

Yin(37) recommended several adaptation options for the Fraser Delta coastal zone based on thepotential impacts of climate change on this regionThese options include

1) prevention of further development in sensitiveareas

2) ensuring that new development does notinfringe upon the shoreline

3) public repurchase of sensitive land and infrastructure and

4) protecting existing investments by maintainingextending and upgrading existing dyke systemsto prevent damage to coastal infrastructure andhuman activities

Great LakesIndividual property owners along the shores of theGreat Lakes would be impacted if projected decreasesin lake levels were to occur although they will like-ly be able to adapt in most cases by moving withthe lake (eg extending docks references 11 45)Shoreline protection structures designed for the current range of lake levels would also be affected by water level changes As a result the design andimplementation of flexible structures that can bemodified for a range of water levels could representan appropriate form of anticipatory adaptation(4555)

Decisions will also have to be made regarding coastalland use and development For example existingshoreline management policies and plans may needto be adjusted and new policies that limit pressurefor lakeward development of sensitive areas of theshoreline could be used to help reduce potentialimpacts from coastal hazards(11 56)

Dredging is a commonly recommended adaptationoption for dealing with low water levels in theGreat Lakes In 2000 Fisheries and Oceans Canadainitiated the Great Lakes Water Level EmergencyResponse Program to provide $15 million in dredg-ing assistance to marinas severely affected by lowwater levels(57) However from an economic andenvironmental perspective dredging is not always a feasible option For example the Welland Canalis situated on a rock basin and deepening thisstructure would require a multiyear drilling and

BOX 5 Assessing coastal community vulnerability(54)

Consulting with community residents to identifyimpacts of local concern was the critical first step ofthis study in Conception Bay South NewfoundlandThese concerns included coastal erosion infrastruc-ture damage and implications for town managementand development Researchers then used historicdata to evaluate past climatic impacts and to identify which parts of the coast are most sensitiveto flooding and erosion Finally options (preventingdevelopment in areas of known vulnerability imple-menting setback limits) were recommended as aproactive means of limiting future impacts

Photo courtesy of Norm Catto

Topsail Beach Conception Bay South Newfoundland


blasting project(58) A study investigating harbourdredging in a portion of the Great Lakes concludedthat costs at Goderich Ontario might be as high as$684 million for one future water level projection(59)

Furthermore in contaminated areas extensivedredging could lead to high disposal costs and present a public health and environmental hazardto shoreline interests and activities(43)

Changes to regulation of the Great Lakes have alsobeen suggested as a potential adaptation optionRegulation of Lake Ontario and the St LawrenceRiver is currently being studied to evaluate the benefits and impacts of the current plan used toregulate these water bodies and assess the changesthat would be needed in order to meet current andfuture needs including those under climate changescenarios(60) With respect to increasing regulationto include all five Great Lakes research has foundthat this option is neither economically nor environ-mentally feasible at the present time(61)


Climate change research with respect to the coastalzone continues to be dominated by studies on theimpacts of changing water levels (ie sea level riseand Great Lakes water level decline) While suchwork is extremely important it is also necessary tobetter address impacts of other climate-relatedchanges such as storm processes and ice dynamicsEqually important is the need for integrated studieswhich consider the physical social and economiccomponents of the coastal zone Only by goingbeyond the traditional biophysical approach willcomprehensive integrated assessments of the vul-nerability of Canadarsquos coastal zone to climatechange be developed


Impacts

1) Improved understanding and predictability ofshoreline response to changing climate andwater levels particularly for highly vulnerablecoastlines at the local level

2) Addressing issues of data availability and accessi-bility including climate water level and currentdata as well as the capacity for future monitoringand data gathering

3) Improved understanding of how storm frequencyand intensity and sea-ice cover may be affectedby climate change and the resultant consequencesfor the coastal zone

4) Studies on how sea level rise would affect salt-water intrusion into coastal aquifers especiallyin regions that are dependent on groundwaterresources

Adaptation

1) Integrated assessments of coastal zone vulnera-bility including the capacity of existing coastalzone management policies to address impacts ofclimate variability and change

2) Studies that address human processes of adapta-tion and the capacity of stakeholders and politicalinstitutions to respond to changing conditions

3) Research that identifies how stakeholders couldbenefit from potential opportunities that may bepresented by climate change

4) Studies that derive realistic cost estimates for dif-ferent adaptation options within the coastal zoneincluding consideration of the effect of differingrates of water level changes

5) Improved understanding of how human activitiesand policies affect coastal vulnerability to climatechange and barriers that exist to adaptation


Conclusion

From an economic environmental and social per-spective Canadarsquos coastal zone is of paramountimportance The health and sustainability of thecoastal zone affects tourism and recreation fisheriestransportation trade and communities Inclusion of the land-water interface makes the coastal zonesensitive to changes in water levels wave climatestorminess ice cover and other climate-related fac-tors Changes in these variables would result inaccelerated rates of shoreline change and present a range of challenges to the sustainability of thecoastal zone Impacts will vary regionally with significant areas of the Atlantic coast the FraserDelta region of British Columbia and the BeaufortSea coast recognized as being highly sensitive to sea level rise Changes in sea-ice cover will likely be the most significant direct impact of climatechange for the northern coastal region whereaschanges in water levels will be the key concernalong the Atlantic Pacific and Great Lakes coasts

Improved understanding of the regional differenceswill help in targeting adaptation strategies to reducethe vulnerability of the coastal zone A solid frame-work for adapting to the impacts of both climatechanges and accelerated sea level rise lies in thestrategies of retreat accommodate and protectIntegrative studies of climate change impacts at thelocal scale involving physical and social scientistsalong with stakeholders are required to properlyaddress the vulnerability of Canadarsquos coastal zoneand determine the most appropriate adaptationoptions Incorporating these considerations into thelong-term planning process will reduce both the netimpacts of climate change and the cost of adaptation


References


(1) Fisheries and Oceans Canada (2002) Fast factsavailable on-line at httpwwwdfo-mpogccacommunicfacts-infofacts-info_ehtm (accessedSeptember 2002)

(2) Natural Resources Canada (2002) Facts aboutCanada available on-line at httpatlasgccasiteenglishfactscoastlinehtml (accessed October 2002)

(3) McLean RF Tsyban A Burkett V CodignottoJO Forbes DL Mimura N Beamish RJ and Ittekkot V (2001) Coastal zones and marineecosystems in Climate Change 2001 ImpactsAdaptation and Vulnerability (ed) JJ McCarthyOF Canziani NA Leary DJ Dokken and KS White contribution of Working Group II to theThird Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change Cambridge UniversityPress also available on-line at httpwwwipccchpubreportshtm (accessed October 2002)

(4) Coastal and Ocean Resources Inc (2001) Proceedingsof a workshop on coastal impacts and adaptationrelated to climate change the C-CIARN coastal nodeavailable on-line at httpissgscnrcangccacciarnCoastal_Zone_reporthtm (accessed October 2002)

(5) Lewis CFM Forbes DL Todd BJ Nielsen E Thorleifson LH Henderson PJ McMartin I Anderson TW Betcher RN Buhay WM Burbidge SM Schroumlder-Adams CJ King JW Moran K Gibson C Jarrett CA Kling HJ Lockhart WL Last WM Matile GLD Risberg JRodrigues CG Telka AM and Vance RE (2001)Uplift-driven expansion delayed by middle Holocenedesiccation in Lake Winnipeg Manitoba CanadaGeology v 29 no 8 p 743ndash746

(6) Maxwell B (1997) Responding to global climatechange in Canadarsquos Arctic Volume II of the CanadaCountry Study Climate Impacts and AdaptationEnvironment Canada

(7) Church JA Gregory JM Huybrechts P Kuhn M Lambeck K Nhuan MT Qin D andWoodworth PL (2001) Changes in sea level inClimate Change 2001 The Scientific Basis (ed) JT Houghton Y Ding DJ Griggs M Noguer PJ van der Linden X Dai K Maskell and CA Johnson contribution of Working Group I to theThird Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change Cambridge University Pressalso available on-line at httpwwwipccchpubreportshtm (accessed October 2002)

(8) Mortsch LD Hengeveld H Lister M Lofgren BQuinn F Slivitzky M and Wenger L (2000a)Climate change impacts on the hydrology of theGreat LakesndashSt Lawrence system Canadian WaterResources Journal v 25 no 2 p 153ndash179

(9) Shaw J Taylor RB Forbes DL Ruz MH andSolomon S (1998a) Sensitivity of the coasts of Canada to sea-level rise Geological Survey of CanadaBulletin 505 p 1ndash79

(10) Shaw J Taylor RB Solomon S Christian HAand Forbes DL (1998b) Potential impacts of globalsea-level rise on Canadian coasts CanadianGeographer v 42 no 4 p 365ndash379

(11) Moulton RJ and Cuthbert DR (2000) Cumulativeimpacts risk assessment of water removal or lossfrom the Great LakesndashSt Lawrence River systemCanadian Water Resources Journal v 25 no 2 p 181ndash208

(12) Forbes DL Shaw J and Taylor RB (1997)Climate change impacts in the coastal zone ofAtlantic Canada in Climate Variability and ClimateChange in Atlantic Canada (ed) J Abraham T Canavan and R Shaw Volume VI of the CanadaCountry Study Climate Impacts and AdaptationEnvironment Canada

(13) Beckmann L Dunn M and More K (1997)Effects of climate change impacts on coastal systemsin British Columbia and Yukon in Responding toGlobal Climate Change in British Columbia andYukon (ed) E Taylor and B Taylor Volume I of the Canada Country Study Climate Impacts andAdaptation British Columbia Ministry ofEnvironment Land and Parks

(14) Smith J Lavender B Auld H Broadhurst D andBullock T (1998) Adapting to climate variabilityand change in Ontario Volume IV of the CanadaCountry Study Climate Impacts and AdaptationEnvironment Canada

(15) McCarthy JJ Canziani OF Leary NA Dokken DJ and White KS (2001) Summary forPolicy Makers in Climate Change 2001 ImpactsAdaptation and Vulnerability (ed) JJ McCarthyOF Canziani NA Leary DJ Dokken and KSWhite contribution of Working Group II to theThird Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change Cambridge UniversityPress also available on-line at httpwwwipccchpubreportshtm (accessed October 2002)

(16) Forbes DL (2000) Earth science and coastal management natural hazards and climate change in the coastal zone GeoCanada 2000 CalgaryAlberta May 29ndashJune 2 2000 available on-line athttpcgrggeoguviccaabstractsForbesEarthCoastalhtml (accessed July 2002)

(17) Natural Resources Canada (2000) Sensitivities to climate change in Canada publication of theGovernment of Canadarsquos Climate Change Impactsand Adaptation Program

(18) Robichaud A and Begin Y (1997) The effects ofstorms and sea-level rise on a coastal forest marginin New Brunswick eastern Canada Journal ofCoastal Research v 13 no 2 p 429ndash439


(19) McCulloch MM Forbes DL and Shaw RW(2002) Coastal impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on Prince Edward Island GeologicalSurvey of Canada Open File 4261 62 p and 11 supporting documents

(20) Shaw J (2001) The tides of changemdashclimatechange in Atlantic Canada Geological Survey ofCanada Miscellaneous Report 75 also available on-line at httpadaptationnrcangccapostersreg_enaspRegion=ac (accessed September 2002)

(21) Chmura G (2001) The fate of salt marshes inAtlantic Canada project report prepared for theClimate Change Action Fund

(22) Liverman D Batterson M Taylor D and Ryan J(2001) Geological hazards and disasters inNewfoundland and Labrador Canadian GeotechnicalJournal v 38 no 5 p 936ndash956

(23) Vinnikov KY Robock A Stouffer RJ Walsh JEParkinson CL Cavalieri DJ Mitchell JFBGarrett D and Zakharov VF (1999) Global warming and northern hemisphere sea ice extentScience v 286 p 1934-1937

(24) Kerr RA (1999) Will the Arctic Ocean lose all itsice Science v 286 no 5446 p 1828

(25) Burns WCG (2000) From the harpoon to the heatclimate change and the International WhalingCommission in the 21st Century report prepared for the Pacific Institute for Studies in DevelopmentEnvironment and Security available on-line athttpwwwpacinstorgIWCOPpdf (accessedNovember 2001)

(26) Canadian Arctic Resources Committee (2002) Onthinning ice Northern Perspectives v 27 no 2 p 1

(27) Huebert R (2001) Climate change and Canadiansovereignty in the Northwest Passage CanadianJournal of Policy Research v 2 no 4 p 86ndash94

(28) Aylsworth JM Duk-Rodkin A Robertson T andTraynor JA (2001) Landslides of the Mackenzie valley and adjacent mountainous and coastal regionsin The Physical Environment of the Mackenzie ValleyNorthwest Territories A Base Line for the Assessmentof Environmental Change (ed) LD Dyke and GR Brooks Geological Survey of Canada Bulletin 547 p 167ndash176

(29) Solomon S (2001) Climate change and sea-levelhazards on the Canadian Beaufort Sea coast project report prepared for the Climate ChangeAction Fund

(30) Wolfe SA Dallimore SR and Solomon SM(1998) Coastal permafrost investigation along a rapidly eroding shoreline Tuktoyaktuk NWT in Permafrost Seventh International Conference June 23ndash27Yellowknife Canada Proceedings no 57 p 1125ndash1131

(31) Couture R Robinson S Burgess M and Solomon S (2002) Climate change permafrost and community infrastructure a compilation of background material from a pilot study ofTuktoyaktuk Northwest Territories GeologicalSurvey of Canada Open File 3867 1 CD-ROM

(32) Solomon SM (2002) Tuktoyaktuk erosion riskassessment 2001 report prepared for the Governmentof the Northwest Territories and EBA Engineering

(33) Reidlinger D (2000) Climate change and Arcticcommunities impacts and adaptation in SachsHarbour Banks Island NWT project report prepared for the Climate Change Action Fund

(34) Fraser J and Smith R (2002) Indicators of climatechange for British Columbia 2002 report preparedby British Columbia Ministry of Water Land and Air Protection

(35) Suffling R and Scott D (2002) Assessment of climate change effects on Canadarsquos National Parksystem Environmental Monitoring and Assessmentv 74 no 2 p 117ndash139

(36) Crawford W and Horita M (2001) Evaluation ofrisk of erosion and flooding in British Columbiaproject report prepared for the Climate ChangeAction Fund

(37) Yin Y (2001) Designing an integrated approachfor evaluating adaptation options to reduce climate change vulnerability in the Georgia Basinproject report prepared for the Climate ChangeAction Fund

(38) Barrie JV (2000) Recent geological evolution andhuman impact Fraser Delta Canada GeologicalSociety Special Publication v 175 p 281ndash292

(39) Clague JJ (2001) Tsunamis Geological Survey ofCanada Bulletin 548 p 27ndash42

(40) Barrie JV and Conway KW (2002) Rapid sea-levelchange and coastal evolution on the Pacific margin ofCanada Sedimentary Geology v 150 no 1ndash2 p 171ndash183

(41) International Joint Commission (2000) Protection of the waters of the Great Lakes Final Report to theGovernments of Canada and the United States 69 p

(42) Mortsch LD (1998) Assessing the impact of climatechange on the Great Lakes shoreline wetlandsClimatic Change v 40 p 391ndash416

(43) Mortsch LD Lister M Lofgren B Quinn F andWenger L (2000b) Climate change impacts onhydrology water resources management and the people of the Great LakesndashSt Lawrence system atechnical survey report prepared for the InternationalJoint Commission Reference on ConsumptionDiversions and Removals of Great Lakes Water


(44) Chao P (1999) Great Lakes water resources climatechange impact analysis with transient GCM scenariosJournal of the American Water Resources Associationv 35 no 6 p 1499ndash1507

(45) Wall G (1998) Implications of global climate changefor tourism and recreation in wetland areas ClimaticChange v 40 p 371ndash389

(46) Scott D (1993) Ontario cottages and the GreatLakes Shore Hazard past experiences and strategiesfor the future MA Thesis University of WaterlooWaterloo Ontario

(47) Gabriel AO Kreutzwiser RD and Stewart CJ(1997) Great Lakes flood thresholds and impactsJournal of Great Lakes Research v 23 no 3 p 286ndash296

(48) Lee DH Moulton R and Hibner BA (1996)Climate change impacts on western Lake ErieDetroit River and Lake St Clair water levels report prepared by Environment Canada and theGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

(49) Smit B Pilifosova O Burton I Challenger BHuq S Klein RJT and Yohe G (2001)Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity in ClimateChange 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability(ed) JJ McCarthy OF Canziani NA Leary DJ Dokken and KS White contribution ofWorking Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeCambridge University Press also available on-line athttpwwwipccchpubreportshtm (accessedOctober 2002)

(50) Neumann JE Yohe G Nicholls R and Manion M(2000) Sea-level rise and global climate change areview of impacts to US coasts report prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change

(51) Klein RJT Nicholls RJ Ragoonaden SCapobianco M Aston J and Buckley EN (2001)Technological options for adaptation to climatechange in coastal zones Journal of Coastal Researchv 17 no 3 p 531ndash543

(52) Klein RJT Nicholls RJ and Mimura N (1999)Coastal adaptation to climate change can the IPCCtechnical guidelines be applied Mitigation andAdaptation Strategies for Global Change v 4 no 3ndash4 p 239ndash252

(53) Anisimov O Fitzharris B Hagen JO Jefferies R Marchant H Nelson F Prowse Tand Vaughan DG (2001) Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) in Climate Change 2001 ImpactsAdaptation and Vulnerability (ed) JJ McCarthyOF Canziani NA Leary DJ Dokken and KS White contribution of Working Group II to theThird Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change Cambridge UniversityPress also available on-line at httpwwwipccchpubreportshtm (accessed October 2002)

(54) Catto N Liverman D and Forbes DL (2002)Climate change impacts and adaptation inNewfoundland coastal communities ConceptionBay south project report prepared for the ClimateChange Action Fund

(55) de Loeuml RC and Kreutzwiser RD (2000) Climatevariability climate change and water resource management in the Great Lakes Climatic Change v 45 p 163-179

(56) Mortsch LD Quon S Craig L Mills B andWrenn B editors (1998) Adapting to climate changeand variability in the Great LakesndashSt Lawrence BasinProceedings of a Binational Symposium TorontoOntario May 13ndash15 1997

(57) Fisheries and Oceans Canada (2000) Dhaliwal movesahead with $15M in federal funding for emergencydredging in the Great Lakes press release availableon-line at httpwwwdfo-mpogccamedianewsrel2000hq53_ehtm (accessed May 2001)

(58) Lindeberg JD and Albercook GM (2000) Focusclimate change and Great Lakes shippingboating in Preparing for a Changing Climate The PotentialConsequences of Climate Variability and Change(ed) PJ Sousounis and JM Bisanz report preparedby the Great Lakes Regional Assessment Group

(59) Schwartz RC (2001) A GIS approach to modellingpotential climate change impacts on the Lake Huronshoreline MES thesis University of WaterlooWaterloo Ontario

(60) International Joint Commission (2002) Upper GreatLakes study available on-line at wwwijcorgijcweb-ehtml (accessed November 2002)

(61) International Joint Commission (1993) Methods of alleviating the adverse consequences of fluctuatingwater levels in the Great LakesndashSt Lawrence Basinreport prepared by the International Joint Commission

(62) OrsquoReilly C Varma H and King G (2002) The 3-D Coastline of the New Millennium Managing Datums in N-Dimension Space VerticalReference Systems International Association ofGeodesy IAG Symposia (124) February 20ndash23 2001Cartagena Colombia ISBN 3-540-43011-3 Springer-Verlag Berlin p 276ndash281

Transportation

T R A N S P O R TAT I O N 133

Transportation industries account for approximately4 of Canadarsquos gross domestic product andemploy more than 800 000 people(2) Howeverthese statistics vastly understate the importance of transportation in this country because of the factthat private cars and trucks account for a large pro-portion of both passenger and freight movementsWhen commercial and private transportation areconsidered together more than $150 billion a yearor one in every seven dollars spent in Canada goes

to pay for transportation(2) Overall it is difficult tooverestimate the importance of transportation toCanadian life

The scale and use of Canadarsquos road rail water andair transportation systems are shown in Table 1

It has been estimated that the road system alonehas an asset value approaching $100 billion(5)

The dominant modes of transportation as well as the role of transportation in the economy vary

ldquoTransportation is essential to our well-being Canadians

need a reliable safe and sustainable transportation

system to connect our communities and to connect

us with our trading partnersrdquo(1)

TABLE 1 Canadian transportation system (data from references 2 3 and 4)

Activity (annual statistics based on most recent Mode Component year available)

Road Length of roadsa 142 million km Light vehicle movementsb 282 billion vehicle-kmRegistered motor vehicles 173 million (166 million Freight movementsc by Canadian-based carrierscars and other light vehicles 575 000 heavier trucks) 165 billion tonne-kmService stations 16 000 Trans-border crossings by truck 13 million

Rail Rail network 50 000 km Freight movementsc by Canadian railways321 billion tonne-kmPassenger movementsd on VIA Rail 16 billion passenger-km

Air Airports 1 716 including the 26 airports in the Domestic (within Canada) passenger trafficNational Airports System (NAS) 26 million passengersAircraft 28 000 International passenger traffic (including US)

33 million passengersValue of air-cargo trade $82 billion

Water Ports 18 operating under Canada Port Authorities Freight handled by Canadarsquos ports 405 plus hundreds of regionallocal ports and million tonnesfishingrecreational harbours Ferry passengers 40 million Commercial marine vessels 2 170

Urban Transit Urban transit fleet (buses and rail vehicles) 14 300 Number of passengers 15 billion

a two-lane equivalent (eg a four-lane highway that extends 100 km is counted as 200 km)b one vehicle-km represents one vehicle traveling one kmc one tonne-km represents one tonne being transported one kmd one passenger-km represents one person being transported one km


from one region to another For example more than 60 of Canadarsquos trade with the United States moves through Ontario primarily by truckIn contrast trade with other countries is primarilyby ship with rail lines providing vital linksbetween areas of production and coastal ports(3)

For passenger movements Canadians everywhererely on private automobiles for short and mediumtrips but air traffic dominates interprovincial and international movements and public transit is primarily a large-city phenomenon Assessing thevulnerability of transportation in Canada to climatechange is an important step toward ensuring a safeefficient and resilient transportation system in thedecades ahead Our present system is rated as oneof the best in the world(6) Despite this transporta-tion in Canada remains sensitive to a number ofweather-related hazards as illustrated by recentexamples (Table 2) Future climate change of themagnitude projected for the present century by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)specifically an increase in global mean annual temperature of 14ndash58degC(15) would have both positive and negative impacts on Canadarsquos trans-portation infrastructure and operations These

impacts would be caused by changes in tempera-ture and precipitation extreme climate events(including severe storms) and water level changesin oceans lakes and rivers The main sensitivitiesof Canadarsquos transportation system to such changesare summarized in Figure 1

This chapter examines recent research on climatechange impacts and adaptation in the Canadiantransportation sector recognizing that this repre-sents a relatively new field of study particularlycompared to sectors such as water resources agri-culture and fisheries (other chapters of this report)An overview of potential impacts of climate changeon transportation infrastructure and operations isfollowed by an examination of adaptation issuesrelated to design and construction information systems and the need for a more resilient and sustainable transportation system Discussion islargely restricted to Canadarsquos road rail air andwater systems although the transportation sectorin the broadest sense includes such other infra-structure as pipelines energy transmission andcommunication networks

2001ndash2002 A mild winter with reduced snowfall in southern Ontario and Quebec saved the insurance industry millions of dollars from road-accident claims(7)

2000 On January 21 a storm surge caused extensive flooding in Charlottetown and other communities along the Gulf of St Lawrence coastline in Prince Edward Island New Brunswick and Nova Scotia(8)

1999 On September 3 a fog-related crash involving 87 vehicles on Highway 401 near Chatham Ontario resulted in 8 deaths and 45 injuries(9)

1999 A dry spring in 1999 contributed to extensive forest fires and temporary road closures throughout northwestern Ontario beginning in May(10)

1998 The January ice storm in southern Quebec eastern Ontario and parts of the Maritime Provinces restricted mobilityfor up to several weeks due to downed power lines broken and uprooted trees and slippery roads(11)

1997ndash1998 Due to warmer temperatures the Manitoba government spent $15ndash16 million flying in supplies to communities normally served by winter roads(12)

1997 The December 16 crash of Air Canada flight 646 in Fredericton was blamed on a mixture of regulatory and human weaknesses compounded by fog(13)

1996ndash1997 A series of winter storms affected Vancouver Island the Lower Mainland and the Fraser Valley from December 22 to January 3 Extremely heavy snowfall up to 85 cm in a single 24-hour period paralyzed road rail and air infrastructure(14)

TABLE 2 Examples of weather-related transportation sensitivities


FIGURE 1 Possible implications of climate change for Canadarsquos transportation system (modified from reference 16)

Conf

iden

ce L

evel

a

NATIONAL IMPACTS





NORTHERN CANADA



SOUTHERN CANADA







wM

oder

ate

High






Previous Work

ldquoNationally the net effect of climate change

on transportation would likely be positivehellip

Vulnerabilities and potential impacts vary

regionally howeverrdquo(17)

Interest in the implications of climate change for transportation infrastructure and operations is growing internationally(18 19) The first generalassessment of climate change impacts on trans-portation in Canada was undertaken in the late1980s(20) and focused mainly on sensitivities and expert opinion In the late 1990s Andrey and Snow(17) conducted a more comprehensive reviewof literature as part of the Canada Country Study

Andrey and Snow(17) concluded that it is difficult togeneralize about the effects of climate change onCanadarsquos transportation system since impacts arecertain to vary by region and mode Some northernsettlements and coastal regions would face seriouschallenges associated with changes in temperatureand sea level whereas milder winters would presentsome benefits for transportation in the more popu-lated parts of Canada All modes of transportationconsidered (automobile truck rail air and coastalmarine) were expected to face new challenges aswell as some reduced costs Andrey and Snow(17)

also reported a growing awareness by public agen-cies and private companies of the need to consideradaptive strategies related to design andor opera-tional practices in response to changing conditions

Impacts on TransportationInfrastructure

ldquoAll modes of transport are sensitive to weather

and climate to some extentrdquo(17)

Roads railways airport runways shipping terminals canals and bridges are examples of the facilities and structures required to move people and freight Climate and weather affect the planning design construction maintenanceand performance of these facilities throughout their

service life Although our current system is quiterobust future weather conditions may reach orexceed the limits of tolerance for some parts of the system In other cases a warmer climate maytranslate into savings for those who build maintainand use Canadarsquos transportation infrastructure

Surface Transportation Issues Related to Changes in Temperature

There is strong evidence that both minimum and maximum temperatures have been warming in most of Canada over the past 50 years(21)

and that changes in temperature distribution areexpected to continue throughout the present cen-tury The associated impacts of these changes ontransportation infrastructure will vary regionallyreflecting differences both in the magnitude of climate changes and in environmental conditionsFor example infrastructure in northern regions ofCanada (discussed separately below) is particularlysensitive to warming temperatures In generalthere is expected to be an increase in the frequencyof extreme hot days in most regions of Canada and a decrease in the frequency of extreme colddays(15) Overall the effects of changes in tempera-ture will likely be more pronounced in winterwhen future warming is projected to be greaterthan during the summer months

An increase in the frequency and severity of hotdays raises concerns that Canadarsquos roads couldexperience more problems related to pavement softening and traffic-related rutting as well as themigration of liquid asphalt (flushing and bleeding)to pavement surfaces from older or poorly con-structed pavements Asphalt rutting may become a greater problem during extended periods of sum-mer heat on roads with heavy truck traffic whereassome flushing could occur with older pavementsandor those with excess asphalt content Theseproblems should be avoidable with proper designand construction but at a cost(22)

Cold temperatures in winter are currently a muchgreater concern for transportation in Canada thansummer heat Cracking of pavements related tolow-temperature frost action and freeze-thaw cyclesis a well-recognized problem in most of southernCanada The 1992 Royal Commission on NationalPassenger Transportation concluded that environ-mental factors account for the greatest portion of


pavement deterioration up to 50 of deteriorationon high-volume roads and as much as 80 on low-volume roads(23) Premature deterioration ofroad and runway pavements is related to high frequencies of freeze-thaw cycles primarily wheresubgrades are composed of fine-grained saturatedmaterial(24) Southern parts of Canada may experi-ence fewer freeze-thaw cycles as a result of climatechange(25) and thus experience less frost damage to pavements By contrast in northern areas pave-ment structures stay strong throughout the winter atpresent because the subgrade remains frozen untilspring(22) Milder winters with more freeze-thawcycles would accelerate road deterioration andincrease maintenance costs in northern areas On the other hand an increase in winter thaws in these areas could be at least partially offset by fewer springtime thaws At present there is asolid understanding of the physical processes atwork but a detailed inventory and assessment of the vulnerability of Canadarsquos road system to changes in freeze-thaw cycles is required to estimate the net effects and to begin developingadaptive strategies for new or reconstructed roads

Rail infrastructure is also susceptible to tempera-ture extremes Railway track may buckle underextreme heat and this has been suggested as a possible contributing factor in the July 29 2002Amtrak rail incident in Maryland(26) As with roadsextreme cold conditions are currently more prob-lematic for railways than severe heat and result in greater frequencies of broken railway lines andfrozen switches and higher rates of wheel replace-ment On balance it is expected that warming willprovide a modest benefit for Canadian rail infra-structure except in regions underlain by permafrost(as discussed in the next section) It should beemphasized however that there has been very little research on climate change impacts on railinfrastructure in Canada

Issues Related to Temperature Change in Northern Regions

Climate warming raises a number of issues fortransportation infrastructure that are unique tonorthern Canada where the most significant warm-ing is expected and where the physical landscape ishighly sensitive to temperature changes Permafrost(ground that remains below 0degC for more than

12 consecutive months) underlies almost half ofCanada(27) and provides important structural stability for much of our northern transportationinfrastructure This includes all-season roadsairstrips and some short-line rail operations suchas the OmniTRAX line to the Port of Churchill inManitoba Degradation of permafrost as a result of climate warming will result in increased depth of the seasonal thaw layer melting of any ice thatoccurs in that seasonal thaw zone and warming of the frozen zone which reduces its bearingcapacity Paved runways are likely to be among thestructures most vulnerable to permafrost changesas they readily absorb solar energy further con-tributing to surface warming

Ice roads which are constructed by clearing a route across frozen ground lakes or rivers play an important role in northern transportation bothfor community supply and for resource industries(Figure 2) Although the operating window variesfrom location to location and year to year theseroads are typically used from November-Decemberto March-April Milder winters as projected underclimate change would shorten the ice-road seasonby several weeks(28) unless additional resourceswere available to apply more intensive andadvanced construction and maintenance tech-niques In 1998 higher than normal temperaturesled to the closure of the winter road to FortChipewyan and the Alberta government had to help residents of the town obtain critical sup-plies(29) A shorter ice-road season may be partiallyoffset by a longer open-water or ice-free season in areas accessible by barge However given thecurrent limitations of monthly and seasonal climateforecasts planning for barge versus winter-roadtransport is likely to be imperfect Furthermore the port infrastructure and services in some regionsmay be inadequate to handle increased use and

FIGURE 2 Ice road in Yellowknife


many areas that currently rely on ice roads such as the diamond-mining region of the NorthwestTerritories are landlocked and cannot take advantage of barge transport

Thus warmer temperatures associated with climatechange could create new challenges for economicdevelopment in some northern regions

Infrastructure Issues Associated with Changes in Precipitation

The impacts of climate change on future precipita-tion patterns are much less certain than those on temperature due in part to the highly variablenature of precipitation and limited ability of currentclimate models to resolve certain atmosphericprocesses It is thought however that annual precipitation is likely to increase over much ofCanada with an increase in the proportion of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow insouthern regions In the past there have beenmany examples of damage to transportation infra-structure due to rainfall-induced landslides andfloods For example a 1999 debris flow in theRocky Mountains thought to have been caused by a localized rainfall event blocked traffic on theTrans-Canada Highway for several days during thetourist season(30) In 1997 a mudslide in the FraserCanyon washed out a section of Canadian Nationalrailroad track derailing a freight train and killingtwo crewmen (reference 31 see Figure 3)

FIGURE 3 Derailed Canadian National train caused by landslide in the Fraser Canyon

If the timing frequency form andor intensity ofprecipitation change in the future then related nat-ural processes including debris flows avalanchesand floods would be affected For example thereare concerns that future changes in hydroclimaticevents particularly extreme rainfall and snowmeltcould result in more frequent disruptions of thetransportation corridors in the mountains of western Canada as a result of increased landslidefrequency(32) Similar concerns exist about the stabil-ity of areas underlain by clay-rich sediment in partsof eastern Ontario and southern Quebec(33) In addi-tion to affecting roads and railroads other criticalinfrastructure (eg pipelines) is also vulnerable toprecipitation-triggered slope instability (see Box 1)

Future increases in the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events(35) would have implicationsfor the design of roads highways bridges and culverts with respect to stormwater managementespecially in urban areas where roads make up a large proportion of the land surface(36)

Precipitation and moisture also affect the weather-ing of transportation infrastructure such as bridgesand parking garages Accelerated deterioration of these structures may occur where precipitationevents and freeze-thaw cycles become more frequent particularly in areas that experience acid rain(37 38)

Maintenance Costs Associated with Snow and Ice

Governments and industries spend large sums of money responding to Canadarsquos harsh winter climate As such there is general optimism that awarmer climate would reduce costs related to snowand ice control on surface transportation routesand de-icing of planes

In Canada provincial and local governmentstogether spend about $13 billion annually on activities related to snow and ice control on publicroadways These include the application of abra-sives (sand) and approximately 5 million tonnes ofroad salt snowploughing and snow-bank gradingand the construction of snow fences(39 40)

Empirical relationships between weather variablesand winter maintenance activities indicate that lesssnowfall is associated with reduced winter mainte-nance requirements(41 42) Thus if populated areaswere to receive less snowfall andor experience


Photo courtesy of S Evans


fewer days with snow this could result in substan-tial savings for road authorities There could alsobe indirect benefits such as less salt corrosion ofvehicles and reduced salt loadings in waterwaysdue to reduced salt use However studies to dateon this topic do not represent all climatic regions of Canada Nor do they account for possiblechanges in storm characteristics such as icing(43)

It is well recognized that individual storms canaccount for a large percentage of total seasonalcosts(43) A succession of storms in which theimpacts are cumulative can also result in substantial

costs For example a series of winter storms associated heavy snowfalls and extremely cold temperatures affected southern Ontario during themonth of January 1999(43) In terms of the numberof people affected impaired mobility was the mostsignificant impact Repeated snowfalls exceeded the capacity of existing systems to maintain reliableair road rail and subway transportation servicesEstimated economic losses based on informationfrom several government agencies and businesseswere more than $85 million Organizations thatcoped well during the event cited the benefits ofprevious experience dealing with emergency situations and the ability to implement contingen-cies that reduced their reliance on transportationTransportation authorities have generally respondedto the event by redesigning their systems to withstand a higher threshold of winter hazard

Rail companies also have winter operating plansand procedures for dealing with winter weatherthat cost millions of dollars each year Theseinclude such measures as snow removal sandingand salting track and wheel inspections temporaryslow orders and personnel training While milder or shorter winters are expected to benefit rail oper-ations this conclusion is based on limited research

For air transport ldquoup to 50 million litres of chemi-cals are sprayed onto aircraft and runways aroundthe world each year to prevent the build-up of iceon wings and to keep the runways ice-freerdquo(44)

The main chemicals used in Canada are glycols forplane de-icing and urea for keeping airport facilitiesclear of snow and ice Experts are optimistic that a warmer climate is likely to reduce the amount ofchemicals used thus reducing costs for the airlineindustry(44) as well as environmental damage (eg water pollution) caused by the chemicals

Finally for marine traffic icebreaking services constitute a major activity of the Canadian CoastGuard and include organizing convoys and escort-ing ships through ice-covered waters providing ice information and routing advice freeing vesselstrapped in ice and breaking out harbours(22) If icecoverage and thickness are reduced in the futurevessels working in the same regions may requireless ice-breaking capacity which could save millions of dollars in capital and operation expenditures(45) However additional services of the Canadian Coast Guard may be required in the

BOX 1 Effect of slope instability on linear infrastructure(34)

Changes in the duration amount and intensity of precipitation have the potential to increase groundmovement and slope instability This soil movementcould in turn threaten the structural integrity of linear infrastructure including pipelines roads andrailroads by placing additional strain on thesestructures In this study researchers examined theintegrity of pipelines in western Canada by using amodelling approach to predict the effect of changesin precipitation on slope movement rates Resultsallowed the identification of critical thresholds that will help industry and government regulatorsplan for potential impacts of climate change

Photo courtesy of I Konuk

Repaired pipeline


Canadian Arctic due to the potential for increasedmarine transport through the Arctic archipelago(see lsquoCoastal Zonersquo chapter) Over the past three to four decades decreases in sea-ice extent in the Arctic (see lsquoFisheriesrsquo chapter) have broughtincreased attention to the potential use of theNorthwest Passage as an international shippingroute(46 47) In fact many believe that continuedwarming will lead to substantial increases in ship-ping through Arctic waters (eg references 47 48)However although ice cover would decrease conditions may become more dangerous because a reduction in seasonal ice would allow more icebergs from northern glaciers and hazardousthick multiyear ice from the central Arctic Basinto drift into the archipelago(49) Overall the potential opening of the Northwest Passage would present a range of new opportunities andchallenges for northern Canada including new economic development sovereignty issues andsafety and environmental concerns

Coastal Issues Related to Sea Level Rise

Average global sea level is expected to rise bybetween 9 and 88 centimetres by the year 2100with considerable regional variation (reference 15see also lsquoCoastal Zonersquo chapter) Higher mean sealevels coupled with high tides and storm surgesare almost certain to cause problems for trans-portation systems in some coastal areas of theMaritimes Quebec southwestern British Columbiaand the Northwest Territories(50) Various invento-ries of vulnerable sites and structures have beencompleted for Atlantic Canada (eg reference 8)With even a half metre (50 centimetres) rise in sealevel many causeways and bridges some marinefacilities (eg ports harbours) and municipalinfrastructure buried beneath roads would be atrisk of being inundated or damaged For some communities flooding could render inaccessiblekey evacuation routes emergency services and hospitals(51) The replacement value of the affectedinfrastructure has been estimated in the hundredsof millions of dollars unless appropriate adapta-tions are made over the coming decades

Some aviation infrastructure is also vulnerable to sea level rise Of the nearly 1 400 certified or registered land-based airports and helipads inCanada 50 are situated at five metres above sealevel or less(52) The largest of these is Vancouver

International Airport which is currently protected by dykes due to its low elevation on the Fraser DeltaSea level rise could necessitate expanded protectionor relocation of some of the affected facilities

Impacts on TransportationOperations

Climate change could also affect transportationoperations through impacts on mobility efficiencysafety and demand

Mobility and Operational Efficiency

All modes of transportation currently experienceweather-related service disruptions For example upto one-quarter of all roadway delays(53) and an evenhigher proportion of air delays are weather relatedaccording to American studies It is virtually impos-sible to predict with any certainty the number oftrip cancellations diversions or delays that wouldoccur under a changed climate and what the socialcosts of these would be There is a general sensehowever that fewer winter storms would benefittransport operators and the public at large

In contrast climate change is expected to have anegative effect on the efficiency of some freightoperations because of reduced payloads The greatest concern is over shipping in the GreatLakesndashSt Lawrence Seaway system Virtually allscenarios of future climate change project reducedGreat Lakes water levels and connecting channelflows mainly because of increased evaporationresulting from higher temperatures (references 54and 55 see also lsquoWater Resourcesrsquo chapter) Severalstudies on implications of reduced water levels forshipping activities in the Great Lakes(56 57 58) havereached similar conclusions that shipping costs for the principal commodities (iron ore grain coaland limestone) are likely to increase because of the need to make more trips to transport the sameamount of cargo Indeed in recent years lake ves-sels have frequently been forced into lsquolight loadingrsquobecause of lower water levels For example in2001 cargo volumes on the St Lawrence Seawaywere down markedly when compared to the previous five years due in part to low water levels(59) While the prospect of an extended


ice-free navigation season is generally beneficial for Great Lakes shipping it is unlikely to offset the losses associated with lower water levels

Climate change may also result in reduced payloadsfor other modes of transportation although theseeffects are likely to be relatively minor Higher tem-peratures and especially more extreme hot dayscould reduce aircraft cargo-carrying capacitiesowing to the fact that aircraft achieve greater liftwhen the air is colder (ie more dense) Heat isalso a consideration for rail transport since opera-tors are sometimes forced to issue lsquoslow ordersrsquo due to heat kink dangers(60) Also milder wintersor wetter springs could necessitate reduced loadson both private logging roads and public highways

The impacts of warming on the fuel efficiency ofmotorized transport have also been considered(61)

and are expected to lead to slight increases in fuelconsumption for both road vehicles and aircraft(22)

For cars and trucks this is due to an anticipatedincrease in air conditioner use which would morethan offset increased efficiencies resulting fromreduced usage of snow tires and defrosting systemsFor aircraft increased fuel consumption is expectedbecause warmer temperatures translate into lowerengine efficiency

Health and Safety

Weather contributes to a large number of trans-portation incidents in Canada each year includingapproximately 10 train derailments and aircraft incidents over 100 shipping accidents and tens of thousands of road collisions(2 62 63) Some peoplehave speculated that milder winter conditions maydecrease the number of weather-related incidentsespecially on roads since it is well documentedthat collision rates increase during and after snowfall events However many snowfall-relatedcollisions are relatively minor lsquofender bendersrsquoHuman health and safety concerns relate princi-pally to injury-producing incidents which maytend to be more frequent under warmer weatherconditions (see Box 2)

Recent research in several Canadian cities indicatesthat injury risks from transportation accidents areelevated by approximately 45 during precipitationevents relative to normal seasonal conditions butthat increases are similar for snowfall and rainfall(63)

Therefore any future shift that involves a decreasein snowfall events and an increase in rainfall assuggested by most projections of future climate(15)

is likely to have minimal impact on casualty ratesWhere precipitation events become more frequent or more intense however injury risk could increase

With respect to shipping changes in ice conditionswater levels and severe weather could affect thedemand for emergency response For exampleincreased traffic in the Arctic due to reduced sea-ice cover would likely increase the occurrence ofaccidents(49) Similarly lower water levels in the

BOX 2 How does weather affect automobile accidents(64)

Ouimet et al(64) investigated the correlationbetween weather variables such as temperaturesnow and rain and automobile accidents in theGreater Montreal area between 1995 and 1998

Accident rates were found to peak in the summermonths (June July and August) fatal and severeaccidents occurred almost twice as often as during the winter and early spring As summertemperatures increased accident rates also roseSuggested explanations for this trend included theseasonal variations in traffic volume and possiblyalso the effect of heat on human behaviour andalcohol consumption

In the winter months adverse weather conditionsincreased the risk of minor traffic accidents in thestudy region The effects of winter storms snowfalland cold weather on accidents were especially pronounced on roads with higher speed limits and roads in urban areas

Image courtesy of Natural Resources Canada Photo Database


Great LakesndashSt Lawrence Seaway system couldincrease the risk of ships being grounded whilehigher sea levels and more severe weather couldmake marine shipping conditions more hazardous

Indirect effects on human health may result fromchanges in transportation associated with climatechange For example access to emergency healthcare may be affected by transportation disruptionsbut there is little information on these types ofissues Relationships between air pollutants includ-ing tailpipe emissions from cars and air qualityand human health are addressed in the lsquoHumanHealth and Well-Beingrsquo chapter of this report

Demand for Transportation

Economic and social factors are the main drivers oftransportation demand Because climate change islikely to affect local and regional economies it willlikely also have an indirect effect on transportationdemand While it is impossible to estimate the consequences of climate change for transportationdemand with any certainty it seems intuitive thatclimate change could affect the location and timingof demands for transportation of specific freightcommodities particularly those that are weathersensitive For instance should the spatial pattern of agricultural production change in response to anextended growing season or other climate-relatedfactors (see lsquoAgriculturersquo chapter) it is reasonableto expect some new demands for transportation toarise and some existing ones to wane It is also rea-sonable to expect that climate change will impacttourism regional growth energy production andeven immigration with implications for geographicpatterns of movement and demands on the variousmodes of transportation

In addition to climate-triggered changes in demand it is also important to consider transporta-tion trends and forecasts(4) and whether these arelikely to amplify or reduce weather-related disrup-tions and costs Most projections for North Americaforecast greater mobility in the decades ahead bothin an absolute sense and per capita with road andair travel growing most rapidly(4) At present bothroad and air travel have a number of weather sensi-tivities that are likely to continue into the futureThese need to be addressed appropriately in climatechange impacts and adaptation studies as well asin decision making in the transportation sector

Adaptation in theTransportation Sector

ldquoPerhaps more than any other sector adaptive

measures undertaken in transportation will

emphasize capitalizing upon the opportunities

afforded by climate changerdquo(22)

The Canadian transportation sector has invested ina large number of adaptive measures to accommo-date current climate and weather variability Manyof these responses intended to protect infrastruc-ture maintain mobility and ensure safety involvesignificant expenditures but result in a robust sys-tem that is able to accommodate a wide range ofconditions as currently experienced Transportationsystems however represent long-term investmentsthat cannot be easily relocated redesigned or reconstructed Thus there is a need to be forwardlooking and to consider not just our recent past but also our near and longer term future

Under a changed climate the nature and range of adaptive measures would likely change with costs increasing in some areas and decreasing in others However current literature suggests that therisks will be manageable with appropriate forwardplanning Nevertheless at this time there is little evidence that climate change is being factored intotransportation decisions The following discussionprovides examples of current practices innovationsand potential adaptations that may reduce vulnerabil-ity related to climate change The discussion focusesmainly on planned rather than reactive responses

Design and Construction Standards and Practices

Weather sensitivities are reflected in design andconstruction standards and protocols No matterwhat the form of infrastructure new or existingthe transportation planning process should considerthe probable effects of climate change potentiallybuilding in more resilience to weather and climate

For coastal areas threatened by sea level rise andstorm surges adaptations may include relocation of facilities and redesigning andor retrofitting

structures with appropriate protection (see lsquoCoastalZonersquo chapter) One example of where this hasoccurred is Confederation Bridge which linksPrince Edward Island to mainland New BrunswickIn this case a one-metre rise in sea level wasincorporated into the design of the bridge to reducethe potential effect of global warming over the estimated 100-year life of the bridge(65 66)

For asphalt-surfaced facilities such as roads andairstrips temperature variations are currently con-sidered in the selection of asphalt cements (andasphalt emulsions for surface-treated roads) Theintent is to minimize both thermal cracking undercold temperatures and traffic-associated ruttingunder hot temperatures To accommodate warmersummers in southern Canada more expensiveasphalt cements may be required because materialsused in roadways have a limited tolerance to heatand the stress is exacerbated by the length of timetemperatures are elevated(22) Although there maybe associated costs this could be accommodated atthe time of construction or reconstruction Changingpatterns of freeze-thaw damage are more difficult to plan for but innovations related to design andconstruction may reduce current and future vulnera-bility of Canadarsquos road network For exampleresearch conducted by the National Research

Council is addressing ways to reduce heaving and cracking of pavement around manholes

For transportation and other structures built on permafrost a number of lessons have been learnedover the past century For example failure to incorporate appropriate design techniques and regularly maintain the rail line between The Pas and Churchill Manitoba in the early 20th century resulted in significant damage as subsidence and frost heave twisted and displaced some rail sections(27) Today although construction over or through permafrost is based on careful route selection most decisions do not account for futureclimate change due in part to insufficient availabilityof data and maps (see Box 3) There are howeverseveral options that are used to improve the longevityof infrastructure built on permafrost For examplepolystyrene insulation was placed under one part of the Dempster Highway near Inuvik(27) and theNorman Wells pipeline in operation since 1985 has many unique design features to minimize distur-bance in the thaw-sensitive permafrost Anotherpossibility is to construct temporary facilities whichcan be easily relocated (eg reference 67) Againthese practices have associated costs but they illustrate that capacity exists to deal with variableclimate in a highly sensitive environment

BOX 3 Route selection in permafrost regions(68)

Higher temperatures are expected to decrease both the extent and thickness of permafrost in the Mackenzie Valleyas well as increase the temperature of the permafrost that is preserved All of these factors could compromise thereliability and stability of transportation routes and other engineered structures

Most permafrost maps do not contain sufficient information to address the relationship between climate change andpermafrost In this study researchers used models to define the associations between changing climate and groundtemperatures Work is now underway toapply these modelling approaches to high-resolution (lt100 m) spatial data for theMackenzie Valley in support of transporta-tion decision making including selectingpotential new road and pipeline routes

Model results showing distribution of permafrost in a portion of the MackenzieValley under equilibrium conditions of baseline climate (left) and a warming of 2degC (right)



There are also innovative approaches for dealingwith short or uncertain ice-road seasons Possibleadaptations include increased reliance on bargetransport during the summer more expensive con-struction and maintenance of ice roads that wouldextend their seasonal life (eg construction of permanent stream crossings) the construction ofall-season roads and other innovations such as the recent decision to transport oilfield equipmentover ice roads in the Canadian Arctic and Alaskawith the assistance of balloons(69)

In terms of inland shipping it may be appropriateto design wider or deeper locks than would be war-ranted under the present climate since it is easierto design for climate change than to do a retrofitAnother alternative for the Great LakesndashSt LawrenceSeaway system would be to invest in vessels thatrequire less draft Dredging is a common responseto low water levels (reference 70 see also lsquoCoastalZonersquo chapter) and was used extensively to managerecent (2001) drought impacts although someresearchers have identified concerns over the disposal of contaminated sediment(71)

Both the full effects of climate change and the service life of many forms of transportation infra-structure will be realized over decades rather than years It is therefore important that appliedscientific research be undertaken to help ensurethat infrastructure that is replaced or retrofitted realizes its full service life

Information Systems

Transportation managers use advisory control and treatment strategies to mitigate environmentalimpacts on roadways Each of these requires detailed site-specific information often in real timeInformation on atmospheric and other physical conditions may be integrated with IntelligentTransport Systems (ITS) such as automated traffic-control and traveller-advisory systems to addresstransportation challenges Throughout the developedworld governments are investing hundreds of millions of dollars in ITS with a view to improvingmobility and safety and also reducing maintenancecosts One example of a weather-specific informationsystem is ARWIS (Advanced Road WeatherInformation Systems) which is used primarily forwinter-maintenance decisions For example theOntario Ministry of Transportation uses information

from 39 ARWIS monitoring stations to monitor andpredict road and weather conditions and reduce theuse of salt on roads(72) Another example is the useof the Automated Identification System (AIS) fornavigation which is used to transmit informationbetween ships and between the shore and shipsThis information can include data on water levelswind speed and ice conditions as well as safety-related messages (eg reference 73)

From a climate change perspective there is a needto help steer the development and implementationof information technologies so that mobility andsafety benefits will be maximized under future as well as current conditions

Shifts to More Resilient and Sustainable Systems

There is increasing support for moving toward amore sustainable transportation system in Canadaone that would add environment and equity toexisting priorities of efficiency and safety(74)

Fortunately many initiatives that are consistentwith sustainability principles not only facilitate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions but also increase resilience to potential climate changeimpacts These may include the adoption of selectednew technologies and best-management practicesas well as changes in travel patterns that reduceexposure to risk For personal mobility promisingexamples include encouraging information-sectoremployees to work from home (telework) changingland-use patterns to shorten commutes and increaseaccessibility to goods and services and providingfinancial incentives to use transport modes that areinherently safer and more reliable even in the faceof a changing climate


Despite considerable work examining climate changeimpacts and adaptation over the past two decadesrelatively little attention has been given to built infrastructure and engineered systems includingtransportation This is reflected in the recent ThirdAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(75) where less than one page


of the vulnerabilities impacts and adaptations report is devoted to transportation Rather much ofthe work on transportation and climate change hasbeen directed toward mitigation issues This is notsurprising considering that transportation accountsfor a significant share of global greenhouse gasemissions(76 77)

Therefore it is to be expected that many gaps exist in our understanding of potential climatechange impacts and adaptation strategies in thetransportation sector Given the limited amount ofwork that has been completed virtually all impactareas and adaptation strategies require furtherinvestigation Specific priorities identified withinpapers cited in this chapter include

bull greater attention to impacts and adaptation issuesfor road transportation in southern Canada

bull increased research on the vulnerability ofCanadian roads to changes in thermal conditionsincluding freeze-thaw cycles and extreme temperatures

bull studies that assess the significance of extremeweather events and weather variability in thedesign cost mobility and safety of Canadiantransportation systems

bull a more thorough evaluation of existing adaptivemeasures and their relative ability to defer infra-structure upgrades reduce operational costs and maintain or improve mobility and safety

bull comprehensive studies that focus on key issuesfor shipping and navigation including the open-ing of the Northwest Passage and lower waterlevels in the Great LakesndashSt Lawrence Seawaysystem

bull an analysis of how changes in factors external to climate such as technology land-use patternsand economics affect societal vulnerability to climate and climate change and

bull studies that integrate mitigation (greenhouse gasemissions reduction) and climate changendashrelatedimpacts andor adaptation issues

All of this research should be conducted in close working relationships with stakeholderswhich in turn will provide the best opportunity forweather- andor climate-sensitive issues to becomeacknowledged in legislation standards and policies

Consideration of the institutional arrangements that would best foster appropriate adaptations in all parts of Canada is also important

Conclusion

The Canadian transportation system is massive andits planning construction and use endure over manydecades It is therefore necessary to consider howfuture economic social and physical conditionsreflecting both future changes in climate and otherfactors are likely to impact transportation and what types of adaptation strategies would increaseresilience of the system From a physical perspectiveclimate change is likely to create both challengesand new opportunities for transportation systems in Canada

Until the late 1980s there had been virtually noattempt to understand the implications of climatechange for transportation either in Canada or globally Significant progress has since been madeThe research community has begun the tasks ofidentifying and characterizing the potential impactson those components of the transport system thatare most vulnerable to a changed climate Theseinclude northern ice roads Great Lakes shippingcoastal infrastructure that is threatened by sea levelrise and infrastructure situated on permafrost Theclimatic sensitivity of northern landscapes has partlycontributed to relatively greater attention to datebeing given to infrastructure and operations issues in northern Canada This has occurred despite thefact that transportation in southern Canada accountsfor the vast majority of domestic and cross-bordermovement of freight and more than 90 percent ofdomestic passenger trips The limited work that has been done suggests that milder andor shorterwinters could translate into savings but the state of knowledge is not adequate to make quantitativeestimates Furthermore higher temperatures andorchanges in precipitation including changed frequen-cies of extreme climate events may exacerbate otherweather hazards or inefficiencies Nonetheless itappears at this time that the potential impacts of climate change on transportation may be largelymanageable providing that Canadians are preparedto be proactive and include climate change consider-ations in investment and decision making


References


(1) Transport Canada (2002) What we do TransportCanada available on-line at httpwwwtcgccaaboutuswhatwedohtm (accessed January 2003)

(2) Transport Canada (2001a) Transportation in Canada2001 Transport Canada Annual Report availableon-line at httpwwwtcgccapolent-facts3Transportation_Annual_Reporthtm (accessedJanuary 2003)

(3) Transport Canada (2000) Transportation in Canada2000 Transport Canada Annual Report availableon-line at httpwwwtcgccapolent-facts3Transportation_Annual_Reporthtm (accessedJanuary 2003)

(4) Transport Canada (2001b) Sustainable developmentstrategy 2001ndash2003 Transport Canada available on-line at wwwtcgccaprogramsEnvironmentSDmenuhtm (accessed January 2003)

(5) Richardson S (1996) Valuation of the Canadianroad and highway system Transport Canada TP 1279E 20 p

(6) World Economic Forum (2001) The Global competi-tiveness report 2001ndash2002 World Economic Forum2001 executive opinion survey produced in collabora-tion with Center for International Development atHarvard University and Institute for Strategy andCompetitiveness Harvard Business School CD-ROM

(7) Environment Canada (2002) CO2climate report fall 2002 Environment Canada MeteorologicalService of Canada Science Assessment andIntegration Branch p2


(9) Canadian Press (2000) Carnage alley needs photoradar Kitchener-Waterloo Record June 30 p A3

(10) Ross J (1999) Fast-spreading forest fires racethrough northwestern Ontario The Globe amp MailMay 5 1999 p A1

(11) Kerry M Kelk G Etkin D Burton I and KalhokS (1999) Glazed over Canada copes with the icestorm of 1998 Environment v 41 p 6ndash11 28ndash33

(12) Paul A and Sanders C (2002) Melting ice roadspose Manitoba supplies emergency The EdmontonJournal January 14 2002 p A5

(13) Transportation Safety Board (1997) Report numberA97H0011 available on-line at httpwwwbstgccaenreportsair1997a97h0011a97h0011asp(accessed March 2003)

(14) Pan Pacific Communications Inc (1997) The impactof storm 96 on environmental social and economicconditions report prepared for Environment Canadaby Pan Pacific Communications Inc Vancouver

(15) Houghton JT Ding Y Griggs DJ Noguer M van der Linden PJ Da X Maskell K and Johnson CA editors (2001) Climate change2001 the scientific basis contribution of WorkingGroup I to the Third Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change available on-line at httpwwwgridanoclimateipcc_tarwg1indexhtm (accessed July 2002)

(16) Mills B and Andrey J (in press) Climate change and transportation potential interactions and impacts in The Potential Impacts of ClimateChange on Transportation proceedings of a work-shop held October 1ndash2 2002 at the BrookingsInstitutionWashington DC United StatesDepartment of Transportation

(17) Andrey J and Snow A (1998) Transportation sec-tor in Canada Country Study Climate Impacts andAdaptations Volume VII National Sectoral VolumeChapter 8 Environment Canada p 405ndash447 Alsoavailable on-line at httpwwwecgccaclimateccssectoral_papershtm (accessed December 2002)

(18) United States Department of Transportation (inpress) The potential impacts of climate change on transportation proceedings of a workshop heldOctober 1ndash2 2002 at the Brookings InstitutionWashington DC United States Department ofTransportation Center for Climate Change andEnvironmental Forecasting

(19) Queensland Transport (undated) The effect of climate change on transport infrastructure in regional Queensland synthesis report prepared for Queensland Transport by CSIRO AtmosphericResearch and PPK Infrastructure amp Environment Pty Ltd 18 p

(20) IBI Group (1990) The implications of long-term climatic changes on transportation in CanadaEnvironment Canada Downsview Ontario Climate Change Digest CCD90-02

(21) Zhang X Vincent LA Hogg WD and NiitsooA (2000) Temperature and precipitation trends inCanada during the 20th century Atmosphere-Oceanv 38 p 395ndash429

(22) Andrey J Mills B Jones B Haas R and HamlinW (1999) Adaptation to climate change in theCanadian transportation sector report submitted to Natural Resources Canada Adaptation LiaisonOffice Ottawa


(23) Nix FP Boucher M and Hutchinson B (1992)Road costs in Directions The Final Report of the Royal Commission on National PassengerTransportation v 4 p 1014

(24) Haas R Li N and Tighe S (1999) Roughnesstrends at C-SHRP LTPP sites Roads andTransportation Association of Canada Ottawa final project report 97 p

(25) Bellisario L Auld H Bonsal B Geast MGough W Klaassen J Lacroix J Maarouf AMulyar N Smoyer-Tomic K and Vincent L(2001) Assessment of urban climate and weatherextremes in Canadamdashtemperature analyses finalreport submitted to Emergency PreparednessCanada Ottawa

(26) Associated Press (2002) Dozens hurt in US train derailment Toronto Star July 30 2002

(27) Smith SL Burgess MM and Heginbottom JA(2001) Permafrost in Canada a challenge to northerndevelopment in A Synthesis of Geological Hazards inCanada (ed) GR Brooks Geological Survey ofCanada Bulletin 548 p 241ndash264

(28) Bruce J Burton I Martin H Mills B andMortsch L (2000) Water sector vulnerability andadaptation to climate change final report GlobalChange Strategies International Inc and AtmosphericEnvironment Service Environment Canada OttawaOntario 141 p

(29) Alberta Department of Transportation and Utilities (1998) 1997ndash1998 Annual Report Alberta Department of Transportation and Utilities

(30) Evans SG (2002) Climate change and geomorpho-logical hazards in the Canadian cordillera theanatomy of impacts and some tools for adaptationscientific report 1999ndash2000mdashsummary of activitiesand results report prepared for the Climate ChangeAction Fund Natural Resources Canada

(31) Andrey J and Mills B (in press) Climate changeand the Canadian transportation system vulner-abilities and adaptations in Weather and RoadTransportation (ed) J Andrey and CK KnapperUniversity of Waterloo Department of GeographyPublication Series Monograph 55

(32) Evans SG and Clague JJ (1997) The impacts ofclimate change on catastrophic geomorphic processesin the mountains of British Columbia Yukon andAlberta in Responding to Global Climate Change in British Columbia and Yukon Volume 1 CanadaCountry Study Climate Impacts and Adaptation(ed) E Taylor and B Taylor British ColumbiaMinistry of Environment Lands and Parks andEnvironment Canada Vancouver British Columbiap 7-1 and 7-16

(33) Natural Resources Canada (2002) Landslides andsnow avalanches in Canada Geological Survey ofCanada Terrain Sciences Division available on-lineat httpstsgscnrcangccaclflandslidesasp(accessed January 2003)

(34) Brennan D Akpan U Konuk I and ZebrowskiA (2001) Random field modelling of rainfallinduced soil movement report prepared for theClimate Change Action Fund Natural ResourcesCanada 85 p

(35) Kharin VV and Zwiers FW (2000) Changes in extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM Journal of Climate v 13 p 3760ndash3788

(36) Bruce JP Burton I Egener IDM and Thelen J(1999) Municipal risks assessment investigation ofthe potential impacts and adaptation measures envi-sioned as a result of climate change report preparedby Global Change Strategies International IncOttawa for the Municipalities Issues Table NationalClimate Change Process

(37) Smith J Lavender B Auld H Broadhurst D andBullock T (1998a) Adapting to climate variabilityand change in Ontario in Canada Country StudyClimate Impacts and Adaptation Volume IVEnvironment Canada 117 p

(38) Auld H (1999) Adaptation to the impacts of atmospheric change on the economy and infrastruc-ture of the Toronto-Niagara region in AtmosphericChange in the Toronto-Niagara Region Towards anIntegrated Understanding of Science Impacts andResponses (proceedings of a workshop held May27ndash28 1998 University of Toronto) (ed) BN Millsand L Craig Environmental Adaptation ResearchGroup Waterloo Ontario p 103ndash121

(39) Jones B (in press) The cost of safety and mobility in Canada winter road maintenance in Weather and Road Transportation (ed) J Andrey and CKKnapper University of Waterloo Department ofGeography Publication Series Monograph 55

(40) Morin D and M Perchanok (in press) Road salt usein Canada in Weather and Road Transportation (ed)J Andrey and CK Knapper University of WaterlooDepartment of Geography Publication SeriesMonograph 55

(41) Cornford D and Thornes JE (1996) A comparisonbetween spatial winter indices and expenditures onwinter road maintenance in Scotland InternationalJournal of Climatology v 16 p 339ndash357

(42) Andrey J Li J and Mills B (2001) A winterindex for benchmarking winter road maintenanceoperations on Ontario highways Proceedings of theTransportation Research Board 80th Annual MeetingJanuary 7ndash11 2001 Washington DC preprint CD-ROM

(43) Mills B Suggett J and Wenger L (in press) You and whorsquos army a review of the January 1999Toronto snow emergency in Weather and RoadTransportation (ed) J Andrey and CK KnapperUniversity of Waterloo Department of GeographyPublication Series Monograph 55


(44) Thornes JE (1997) Transport systems inApplied Climatology Principles and Practice (ed) RD Thompson and A Perry Routledge New York p 202

(45) Maxwell B (1997) Responding to global climatechange in Canadarsquos Arctic Volume II of the CanadaCountry Study Climate Impacts and AdaptationEnvironment Canada 82 p

(46) Falkingham J (2002) The ice evidence NorthernPerspectives v 27 no 2 p 2

(47) Brigham L (2002) The polar highway NorthernPerspectives v27 no 2 p 5

(48) Huebert R (2002) On guard for thee Preparing fora navigable NW Passage Northern Perspectives v 27 no 2 p 4ndash5

(49) Jackson D (2001) The effect of global climatechange on Canadian Coast Guard operations in theCanadian Arctic in A common approach to collabo-rative technology research for Arctic developmentBrussels Belgium October 24ndash27 2001

(50) Shaw J Taylor RB Forbes DL Ruz HH and Solomon S (1998) Sensitivity of the coasts of Canada to sea-level rise Geological Survey ofCanada Bulletin 505 79p

(51) Wartman D (2000) Climate change impacts on Atlantic Canada in Proceedings of the NewEngland Governors and Eastern Canadian PremiersConferencemdashClimate Change New Directions for the Northeast March 30 2001 Fredericton New Brunswick

(52) Hamlin W (1999) Impacts of climate change on aviation in Canada University of WaterlooWaterloo Ontario draft report

(53) Pisano P and Goodwin LC (2002) Surface transportation weather applications report prepared by Federal Highway Administration Office of Transportation Operations in cooperationwith Mitretek Systems Inc available on-line at http2096841108itslibAB02H261pdf(accessed December 2002)

(54) Mortsch LD Hengeveld H Lister M Lofgren B Quinn F Slivitzky M and Wenger L (2000a)Climate change impacts on the hydrology of theGreat LakesndashSt Lawrence system Canadian WaterResources Journal v 25 no 2 p 153ndash179

(55) National Assessment Synthesis Team (2001) Climatechange impacts on the United States the potentialconsequences of climate variability and changereport prepared for the United States Global ChangeResearch Program Cambridge University PressCambridge United Kingdom 620 p

(56) Bergeron L (1995) Les niveau extrecircmes drsquoeau dansle Saint-Laurent ses consequences eacuteconomiques etlrsquoinfluence des facteurs climatiques rapport preacutesenteacuteagrave Environment Canada Services scientifiquesDirection de lrsquoenvironnmement atmospheacuteriqueReacutegion du Queacutebec 70 p

(57) Millerd F (1996) The impact of water level changeson commercial navigation in the Great Lakes and St Lawrence River Canadian Journal of RegionalScience v 19 no 1 p 119ndash130

(58) Lindeberg JD and Albercook GM (2000) Climate change and Great Lakes shippingboating in Preparing for a Changing ClimatemdashPotentialConsequences of Climate Variability and ChangeGreat Lakes (ed) P Sousounis and JM Bisanz prepared for the United States Global ChangeResearch Program p39ndash42

(59) The St Lawrence Seaway Management Corporationand Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation(2001) 2001 St Lawrence Seaway navigation seasondraws to a close capping difficult year The St Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation andSaint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporationavailable on-line at httpwwwgrandslacs-voiemaritimecomennewspr20011227html(accessed January 2003)

(60) Richardson B (2001) Version IXmdashthis is the weekthat was United Rail Passenger Alliance lsquoAn OngoingSaga of Passenger Railrsquo newsletter July 6 2001 available on-line at wwwunitedrailorgnewstwtwtw0009htm (accessed January 2003)

(61) Titus JG (1992) The costs of climate change to the United States in Global Climate ChangeImplications Challenges and Mitigation Measures(ed) SK Majumdar LS Kalkstein B Yarnal EWMiller and LM Rosenfeld Philadelphia p 385ndash409

(62) Transportation Safety Board (2002) Statistics annualsafety and incident information for air marine andrail modes Transportation Safety Board availableon-line at httpwwwtsbgccaenstatsindexasp(accessed January 2003)

(63) Andrey J Mills B Leahy M and Suggett J (2003) Weather as a chronic hazard for road transportation in Canadian cities Natural Hazardsv 28 no 2 p 319ndash343

(64) Ouimet M Blais E Vigeant G and Milton J(2001) The effects of weather on crime car accidents and suicides report prepared for theClimate Change Action Fund Natural ResourcesCanada 91 p

(65) Rothman DS Demeritt D Chiotti Q and BurtonI (1998) Costing climate change the economics of adaptations and residual impacts for Canada in Canada Country Study Climate Impacts andAdaptation Volume VIII National Cross-CuttingIssues Volume (ed) N Mayer and W AvisEnvironment Canada p 1ndash29

(66) Smith JB Tol RSJ Ragland S and FankhauserS (1998b) Proactive adaptation to climate changethree case studies on infrastructure investmentsInstitute for Environmental Studies Vrije UniversiteitAmsterdam The Netherlands IVM-D9803 14 p


(67) Touchdown Enterprises Ltd (2002) Portable helipadsavailable on-line at httpwwwvquestcomtouchdown(accessed January 2003)

(68) Wright JF Duchesne C Nixon M and Cocircteacute M(2002) Ground thermal modeling in support of terrain evaluation and route selection in theMackenzie River valley report prepared for theClimate Change Action Fund Natural ResourcesCanada 53 p

(69) CargoLifter (2002) CargoLifter sells first CL 75 ACpress release available on-line at httpwwwcargolifterdeC1256B02002FDB08htmlb92ef5a679966e19c1256b7e002edecbhtml(accessed December 2002)

(70) Schwartz R (2001) A GIS approach to modellingpotential climate change impacts on the Lake Huronshoreline MES thesis University of WaterlooWaterloo Ontario

(71) Mortsch L D Lister M Lofgren B Quinn F and Wenger L (2000b) Climate change impacts on hydrology water resources management and thepeople of the Great LakesndashSt Lawrence system atechnical survey prepared for the International JointCommission Reference on Consumption Diversionsand Removals of Great Lakes Water

(72) Ontario Ministry of Transportation (2002) Road salt management keeping Ontariorsquos roads safe inwinter available on-line at httpwwwmtogovoncaenglishengineeringroadsalthtm (accessed January 2003)

(73) Great Lakes St Lawrence Seaway System (2002)AIS Project available on-line at httpwwwgreatlakes-seawaycomennavigationais_projecthtml (accessed January 2003)

(74) Better Environmentally Sound Transportation (2002)History and Vision available on-line at httpwwwbestbccaaboutBesthistoryAndMissionhtml(accessed January 2003)

(75) McCarthy JJ Osvaldo F Canziani N Leary ADokken DJ and White KS editors (2001) Climatechange 2001 impacts adaptation and vulnerabilitycontribution of Working Group II to the ThirdAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC) Cambridge UniversityPress Cambridge United Kingdom

(76) United States Department of Transportation (1998)Transportation and global climate change a reviewand analysis of the literature United StatesDepartment of Transportation Federal HighwayAdministration

(77) National Climate Change Secretariat (1999)Transportation and climate change options for actionNational Climate Change Process available on-line at httpwwwnccpcahtmltablespdfoptionsTrans_Final_OR-enpdf (accessed January 2003)


H U M A N H E A LT H A N D W E L L-B E I N G 153

Good health which requires physical mental andsocial well-being is a key determinant of quality of life As a result health and health services areextremely important to Canadians The health careand social services sector employs more than 15 mil-lion Canadians and over $102 billion per year isspent on health services(2) This spending on healthcare accounts for about 93 of the total annualvalue of goods and services produced in Canada(Gross Domestic Product) This represents an aver-age of approximately $3300 per person per year(2)

At a very basic level the relationship betweenhealth and climate in Canada is demonstrated bythe strong seasonal variability in the incidence ofinfectious diseases(3 4) and the persistent seasonalpattern in mortality (Figure 1 reference 5) Themonthly number of deaths tends to reach a low inAugust then rises to a peak in January and declinesagain during the spring and summer months Manyof the winter deaths result from pneumonia(5) sug-gesting that seasonal changes in weather and climaticconditions influence respiratory infections Deathsfrom heart attacks and strokes likewise show strongseasonal fluctuations with peaks in both summerand winter(5)

ldquoConcern for human health is one of the most compelling

reasons to study the effects of global climate change

Health reflects the combined impacts of climate change

on the physical environment ecosystems the economic environment

and societyhelliprdquo(1)

FIGURE 1 Seasonality of deaths in Canada 1974ndash1994 (adapted from Statistics Canada Web site httpwwwstatcancaenglishindepth82-003archive1997hrar1997009001s0a05pdf March 2003)

o

f ave

rage

dai

ly nu

mbe

r of d

eath

s


Another strong linkage between climate and humanhealth is seen in the impacts of extreme climateevents and weather disasters Flooding droughtsevere storms and other climate-related naturalhazards can damage health and social well-beingby leading to an increased risk of injury illnessstress-related disorders and death In recent yearsthis has been dramatically demonstrated by theeffects of the 1996 flood in the Saguenay region of Quebec the 1997 Red River flood in Manitobaand the 1998 ice storm in eastern Ontario southernQuebec and parts of the Maritime Provinces(6 7 8 9)

Trends in illnesses and deaths associated with airpollution extreme weather events allergies respi-ratory diseases and vector- food- and water-bornediseases all illustrate that weather and climatic factors influence health and well-being(10 11 12)

Therefore there is concern that climate change ofthe magnitude projected for the present century bythe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(14ndash58degC increase in mean global temperaturereference 13) may have significant consequencesfor health and the health care sector in CanadaIndeed results of climate modelling exercises(14)

assessments of regional environmental and resourcevulnerabilities(15) and climate abnormalities experi-enced across the country in recent years all indicatethat changes in climate could make it more difficultto maintain our health and well-being in the future

The potential impacts of climate change are classifiedas either direct (eg changes in temperature-relatedmorbidity and mortality) or indirect (eg shifts invector- and rodent-borne diseases)(16) Of particularconcern are the effects on more vulnerable popula-tion groups including the elderly the infirm thepoor and children Rural residents who may have to travel farther for health care and those relyingdirectly on natural resources for their livelihood(eg some aboriginal communities) are also con-sidered to be potentially more vulnerable Overallhealth effects will be a function of the nature of climatic changes exposure to changes and our ability to mitigate exposure Although most of theliterature focuses on the negative impacts of climatechange on human health certain benefits such asdecreases in illness and mortality related to extreme

cold are also expected(17) Some of the key issuesrelated to health and climate change in Canada arelisted in Table 1

Although Canadians are generally considered to bewell adapted to average conditions we continue tobe challenged by extreme climate events whichsometimes fall outside our current coping rangeThere are concerns that future climate change willcause this to happen more frequently and furtherlimit our ability to cope In fact any environmentaland socio-economic impact resulting from climatechange would place additional stress on a healthinfrastructure that is already dealing with a widerange of challenges Strategies that serve to reducethe negative impacts of climate change on theCanadian health sector are therefore requiredDetermining which adaptation options are mostappropriate will require an assessment of the vul-nerabilities and adaptive capacities of differentregions communities and population groups

This chapter presents an overview of the majorpotential impacts of climate change on humanhealth and well-being and highlights some initia-tives that have already been undertaken to betterunderstand the impacts on Canadians and help provide information for the development of adap-tation strategies

Previous Work

ldquoClimate change is likely to have wide-ranging and

mostly adverse impacts on human healthrdquo(19)

In their summary of research as part of the CanadaCountry Study Duncan et al(17) identified a rangeof health-related climate change impacts and dis-cussed the role of potential adaptation strategiesKey concerns included the effects of climate changeon heat- and cold-related mortality a possiblenorthward expansion of vector-borne diseases an increase in food-borne diseases changes in theamounts and quality of available water resourcesand weaknesses in the public health infrastructure


Particular attention was paid to the effects of hightemperature combined with poor air quality in largesouthern Canadian cities It was concluded that incities such as Toronto Ottawa and Montreacuteal thedegree of warming projected over the next fewdecades could lead to a significant increase in the number of deaths during severe heat wavesparticularly among the elderly and the infirm

The Canada Country Study also drew attention topotential increases in disease transmission and bacterial contamination due to climate change For example heavy rainfalls could increase outbreaksof infectious diseases such as cryptosporidiosis andgiardiasis (lsquobeaver feverrsquo) Warmer temperatureswould generally favour the survival of cholera bacteria as well as the growth of certain algae

TABLE 1 Possible health impacts from climate change and variability in Canada(18)

Health concerns Examples of Health Vulnerabilities

Temperature-related morbidity and mortality bull Cold- and heat-related illnessesbull Respiratory and cardiovascular illnessesbull Increased occupational health risks

Health effects of extreme weather events bull Damaged public health infrastructurebull Injuries and illnessesbull Social and mental health stress due to disastersbull Occupational health hazardsbull Population displacement

Health effects related to air pollution bull Changed exposure to outdoor and indoor air pollutants and allergensbull Asthma and other respiratory diseasesbull Heart attacks strokes and other cardiovascular diseasesbull Cancer

Health effects of water- and bull Enteric diseases and poisoning caused by chemical and biological contaminantsfood-borne contamination

Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases bull Changed patterns of diseases caused by bacteria viruses and other pathogenscarried by mosquitoes ticks and other vectors

Health effects of exposure to ultraviolet rays bull Skin damage and skin cancerbull Cataractsbull Disturbed immune function

Population vulnerabilities in rural and bull Seniorsurban communities bull Children

bull Chronically ill peoplebull Low-income and homeless peoplebull Northern residentsbull Disabled peoplebull People living off the land

Socio-economic impacts on community bull Loss of income and productivityhealth and well-being bull Social disruption

bull Diminished quality of lifebull Increased costs to health carebull Health effects of mitigation technologiesbull Lack of institutional capacity to deal with disasters


that release toxins that can accumulate in fish orshellfish A warmer environment resulting from climate change could also enhance the prevalenceof food-borne diseases from enteric bacteria andviruses favour the northward spread of mosquitoesand ticks capable of transmitting disease (eg denguefever yellow fever and malaria) and increase thenumber of disease-carrying rodents and their contactwith humans

Duncan et al(17) also discussed the need for bothshort- and long-term adaptations that would reducethe health impacts of climate change Such adapta-tion measures include introducing weather-watchwarning systems assisting acclimatization toextreme heat and improving public outreach andeducation The need for increased research includ-ing interdisciplinary studies was also stressed

Health Effects of ClimateChange and Climate Variability

ldquoGlobal climate change would disturb the Earthrsquos

physical systems and ecosystems these disturbances

in turn would pose direct and indirect risks to

human healthrdquo(20)

Our health and well-being are strongly influencedby weather and extreme events A changing climatewould affect mortality and injury rates illnessesand mental health These impacts would result fromchanges in factors such as temperature extremesair quality water- and vector-borne diseases andextreme weather events The impacts would varyacross the country with different regions facing different priority issues Some of the key health-related concerns in the Prairie Provinces are shown in Box 1

BOX 1 Climate-related health issues in the Prairie Provinces(21 22 23)

Researchers in the Prairies used round-table discussions e-mail communications and a litera-ture review to document possible human healtheffects of climate change and to identify priorityresearch areas

This work revealed that key concerns for the PrairieProvinces include

bull impact of drought on stress levels in farmingcommunities

bull effects of forest fires on air quality

bull increased probability of food-borne illness

bull impacts of heat waves on vulnerable populations

bull contamination of surface water due to extremerainfall events and

bull effects of floods and other hazards on physicalsafety and mental health

Photo courtesy of Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration


Temperature Stress

Climate change is projected to cause milder wintersand warmer summers People will largely be ableto adapt to gradual changes in average temperaturesthrough normal acclimatization However higherair temperatures are also expected to increase thefrequency and intensity of heat waves(16) Heatwaves can exceed the physiologic adaptive capacityof vulnerable groups such as infants the elderlyand those with pre-existing health conditions Theimpacts of heat waves tend to be greater in urbanrather than suburban or rural areas likely owing to both the lsquoheat islandrsquo effect (see Figure 2) andhigher levels of air pollution(16) Studies have sug-gested that an increase in the number of days ofextreme heat (above 30degC) over this century wouldresult in greater heat-related mortality in some urbancentres in southern Canada(24 25) However it should

be noted that seasonal acclimatization and appro-priate adaptation measures such as access to airconditioning and necessary medical care couldreduce the number of deaths(26)

Research suggests that the timing and characteristicsof heat waves may influence the degree of healthimpacts For example heat waves that occur earlierin the summer tend to result in more deaths thanthose that occur later in the season as people havenot yet acclimatized to warmer weather(27) In addi-tion current warming trends show that night-timeminimum temperatures are increasing more rapidlythan daytime maximum temperatures and climatemodels suggest that this trend will continue(28)

This means that during future heat waves therewould be less relief due to night-time cooling thanthere is at present and this would further increasetemperature stress(29)

FIGURE 2 Urban heat island profile

30

31

32

33

Rural RuralFarmland

Suburban Residential


Urban Residential

Commercial ParkDowntown

Late

afte

rnoo

n te

mpe

ratu

re (deg

C)


As well as affecting mortality rates extreme hightemperatures would also influence a range of heat-related illnesses Direct impacts of extreme heatinclude heat fatigue exhaustion heat rash crampsand edema as well as heat stroke and sunstrokeIndirect impacts such as pre-existing health con-ditions exacerbated by extreme heat cover a widerange of circulatory respiratory and nervous sys-tem problems(30) Factors that increase the risk ofheat-related illnesses include old age medicationuse (especially anticholinergic and psychotropicmedications) obesity previous heat injury andskin disorders(31) Heat-related illnesses place additional stress on health infrastructure and can cause significant economic costs(30) Studiessuggest that although heat-related health effectsare reflected in hospital admissions (see Box 2)the relationship can be difficult to quantify becauseambulance and hospital admission records arepresently not designed to capture such data

In the far north summers tend to be shorter andcooler and people and animals are acclimatized to lower temperatures than those characteristic ofsouthern Canada(32) Therefore what constitutes ahealth-threatening heat wave in the northern territo-ries may be quite different than in southern Canada

Although cold snaps will continue to be a problemin the future(33 34) researchers project that the frequency of extreme cold events will decreasewith resultant benefits for the health care sectorThroughout Canada during the second half of the20th century there were many more deaths due toexcessive cold than from excessive heat (2 875 ver-sus 183 respectively between 1965 and 1992)(17)

A reduction in extreme cold events would be especially beneficial for the homeless who may be unable to obtain the shelter necessary to avert cold-related illness and death

Air Pollution and Related Diseases

Air quality influences many respiratory ailmentsAlthough the average concentrations of toxic airpollutants in Canada have generally been reducedto fairly low levels relative to those experienced 50 years ago the daily and seasonal rises in levelsof air pollution are still closely followed by peaksin the number of people admitted to hospitals ordying of respiratory and circulatory diseases(35 36)

Air pollution causes and exacerbates acute andchronic illnesses such as lung disease and resultsin increases in health care costs and prematuredeaths(37) Air quality is especially a concern in the most populous regions of Canada including the Windsor to Queacutebec corridor and the lowerFraser Valley of British Columbia where summerair pollution levels often reach hazardous levelsIndeed it is estimated that approximately two-thirdsof Canadians live in regions that suffer from highsmog levels in the summer(38) Children and theelderly are groups considered particularly suscepti-ble to poor air quality(39)

Climate change could affect both average and peakair pollution levels(24) For example background con-centrations of ground-level ozone (a pollutant thatirritates the lungs and makes breathing difficult) areexpected to increase over mid-latitudes due in part

BOX 2 Identifying heat-related illnesses and death(30)

In this study researchers examined health-carerecords of hospital visits to determine if they weresuitable for assessing heat-related health effectsThey looked for such factors as relationshipsbetween heat-related illnesses (see text for examples) and heat stress periods (air tempera-tures greater than or equal to 30degC) between 1992 and 1999

The researchers noted that there are limitations inusing these records for this purpose Neverthelessin comparing data for two Ontario cities Ottawaand London they found that Ottawa had almosttwice as many heat stress periods (22 versus 12)and Ottawa hospitals treated more than doublethe number of patients for heat-related healthproblems (117 versus 53) The researchers con-cluded that medical records may in fact assist in monitoring the health effects of heat and iden-tifying vulnerable population groups in differentcities and regions


to higher temperatures(16) whereas intense smogepisodes are projected to become more frequent during summer months as a result of climatechange(24) Higher summer temperatures are alsolikely to increase energy consumption for coolingthereby adding to pollution emissions(38) There isgeneral recognition however that shifts to cleanerenergy sources(40) and other reductions in green-house gas emissions(41 42) will yield health benefits

Airborne particulates from natural sources such as forest fires and wind erosion also have thepotential to increase as a result of climate changeDuring recent drought years large forest fires havespread smoke across areas covering more than200 000 square kilometres(43) In July 2002 smokefrom large forest fires in Quebec caused New Yorkto issue a statewide alert for people with respira-tory and heart conditions to remain indoors(44)

Particulates in forest fire smoke can irritate the respiratory tract when they are inhaled(45) Forestfires could increase in frequency and severity in some regions of Canada as a result of future climate change (see lsquoForestryrsquo chapter)

An increase in drought could also lead to increasedconcentrations of dust in the air due to wind ero-sion of soils(38) particularly on the Prairies wheredust storms presently represent a significant naturalhazard(46) Alkali dust emissions resulting fromwind erosion of dried salt lake beds have causednasal throat respiratory and eye problems for somerural residents on the southern Prairies and couldbecome more common if climate change results infurther drying of saline lakes in this region(46)

Waterborne Diseases

Heavier rainfall events and higher temperaturesresulting from climate change may increase theoccurrence of waterborne diseases such as giardia-sis and cryptosporidiosis Although such diseases aregenerally not serious for most of the population thevery young the elderly and those with compromisedimmune systems may be vulnerable Heavy rainfallevents and flooding can flush bacteria sewage fer-tilizers and other organic wastes into waterways and aquifers (see lsquoWater Resourcesrsquo chapter) If not

properly treated such events can lead to the directcontamination of drinking water supplies

Recent examples of waterborne disease outbreaksrelated at least in part to climatic conditions includethose caused by E coli in Walkerton Ontario (2000)Cryptosporidium in Collingwood Ontario (1996)and Toxoplasma in the greater Victoria area BritishColumbia (1995) In Walkerton expert witnessestestified that the outbreak which resulted in sevendeaths and thousands of illnesses could be partlyattributed to an unusually heavy rainfall eventwhich followed a period of drought(25) Such trendsare receiving growing recognition researchers havedetermined that more than 50 of waterborne dis-ease outbreaks in the United States between 1948and 1994 were preceded by extreme precipitationevents(47) A detailed discussion of the causes andhistory of infectious diseases associated with con-taminated drinking water in Canada is provided by Krewski et al(48)

Increases in temperature would also exacerbatewater contamination as higher temperaturesencourage the growth and subsequent decay ofalgae bacteria and other micro-organisms causingodour and taste problems and in extreme caseseven rendering the water toxic (reference 49 seealso lsquoWater Resourcesrsquo chapter) In addition higherwater temperatures and storm water runoff com-bined with greater use of beaches have been associated with increases in infectious illnesses in people using recreational waters(50)

Food-Borne Diseases

An increase in heavy rainfall events and highertemperatures may increase the occurrence of toxic algal outbreaks in marine environments (reference 51 see also lsquoFisheriesrsquo chapter) Toxicalgal blooms can contaminate shellfish which in turn pose a danger to human health throughparalytic shellfish poisoning Increased problemswith contamination of both domestic and importedshellfish are possible Food poisoning from con-tamination of other imported foods may alsoincrease as rising air temperatures allow microbesto multiply more quickly(52)


Vector- and Rodent-Borne Diseases

Vector-borne diseases are infections that are transmitted to humans and animals through blood-feeding arthropods such as mosquitoes ticks and fleas Insect- and tick-borne diseases such as West Nile virus Eastern and Western EquineEncephalitis (transmitted by mosquitoes) Lymedisease and Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever (trans-mitted by ticks)(53 54) already cause human healthproblems in some parts of Canada Rodent-borneviruses capable of causing illnesses and deaths inhumans are also present in much of southernCanada(55) Hantaviruses which can cause fatalinfections (pulmonary syndrome) are of particularpublic health concern because the deer mice thatcarry hantaviruses tend to invade dwellings andare present across Canada as far north as theYukon Territory and the Northwest Territories(56 57)

Rodents may also carry tick-borne diseases suchas Babesiosis(58)

There are concerns that future changes in climatecould lead to conditions that are more favourable for the establishment andor proliferation of vector-and rodent-borne diseases(24) The impacts of climatechange on these diseases are generally expected toresult from the effects of changing temperature rain-fall and humidity on the vector species althoughthe development rates of the pathogens themselvesmay also be affected For example longer andwarmer springs and summers resulting from climatechange could increase mosquito reproduction anddevelopment and also increase the tendency ofmosquitoes to bite(29) Mosquitoes would also bene-fit from warmer winters as cold temperatures currently reduce mosquito populations by killingmosquito eggs larvae and adults(29) Furthermoreincreases in extreme weather events especiallythose that trigger flooding could increase breedingareas for mosquitoes by creating more shallowpools of stagnant water(29)

Observed trends in Lyme disease and West Nilevirus illustrate how quickly new and emerging dis-eases can spread For example Lyme disease hasextended its range significantly across the UnitedStates since the 1980s and is now considered to

be a major public health concern(59) Although thedisease is still rare in Canada warmer weather and the northward migration of animals and birdsthat carry infective ticks could further expand itsrange(38) The recent extremely rapid spread of West Nile virus across the United States and Canadaalthough not due to climate change is anotherexample of how quickly and widely a newly intro-duced virus can expand its range Conditionsexpected to result from climate change could furtherfacilitate the spread of the virus northward(38)

Another potential future health concern in Canada is the re-emergence of malaria as a result of climatechange increased travel and immigration andincreased drug resistance(60) Malaria-infected per-sons exposed to North American mosquitoes capableof transmitting the causative Plasmodium parasitecan cause localized outbreaks of infections(60 61 62)

In addition new insect vectors such as the lsquotigermosquitorsquo which has spread across 25 states sinceits introduction to the US from Asia in 1987(63)

may extend their range to southern Canada if climate conditions become more favourable(38)

Nevertheless there remains considerable uncertaintyregarding how climate change will affect vector life-cycle and disease incidence of malaria especially ina North American context

Allergens

Changes in temperature precipitation and length ofthe growing season would all impact plant growthand pollen production and ultimately human healthby for example extending the allergy season(16)

Studies have also shown that elevated concentra-tions of atmospheric carbon dioxide can enhancethe growth and pollen production of ragweed a keyallergy-inducing species(64) Although not all speciesof allergen-producing plants will necessarily react in a positive manner to changed climate conditionsa more stormy climate may sweep more allergensinto the air and lead to more frequent allergy out-breaks(65) Stormy winds may also increase airborneconcentrations of fungal spores which have beenshown to trigger asthma attacks(66)


Ultraviolet (UV) Radiation

Exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation is expected torise in future leading to an increase in temporaryskin damage (sunburn) eye damage (eg cataracts)and rates of skin cancer(67 68) Increased UV exposurecould result from a number of factors associated with climate change including stratospheric ozonedepletion due to increased concentrations of somegreenhouse gases and increased development ofhigh-altitude clouds(38) Longer summer recreationalseasons resulting from global warming may alsocontribute to increased population exposure tosolar UV radiation

Effects on Human Behaviour

Climate also has an influence on mental healthThis is particularly evident in the case of climate-related natural hazards where property losses anddisplacement from residences can cause significantpsychological stress with long-lasting effects onanxiety levels and depression(23) Social disruptionsresulting from family and community dislocationsdue to extreme weather events pose a special stressfor children(69) and those of lower socio-economicstatus(70) Increased levels of anxiety and depressionwere seen among farmers experiencing crop failuresdue to drought(23) and among victims of the 1997Red River flood(8)

Temperature also appears to influence humanbehaviour In the Montreacuteal area researchers foundthat the number crimes per day tended to increasewith daily maximum temperature up to about30degC(71) Another study found that higher summertemperatures are linked to increases in humanaggression(72) Linkages may also exist betweenextreme climate events aggression and crime ratesFor instance increased aggression could result fromcrowding of disoriented and distressed people intemporary emergency shelters(73) A recent studyexamined how the ice storm of 1998 affected crimerates in three regions of Quebec (see Box 3)

Health Impacts in Northern Canada

In addition to being affected by many of the healthconcerns listed in Table 1 communities in northernCanada will face additional challenges resulting

from the impacts of climate change on the physicaland biological environments in the North There isstrong evidence that northern regions are alreadyexperiencing the impacts of climate change particu-larly changes in the distribution and characteristicsof permafrost sea ice and snow cover(74 75 76)

For example residents of Nunavik and Labradorreported changes in the physical environment overthe last 20 to 30 years that have had discernibleeffects on travel safety and on their ability to hunt

BOX 3 Crime rates during the 1998 ice storm(73)

This study compared crime statistics for January1997 and January 1998 to determine how thephysical and social disruption due to the 1998 icestorm of communities in three regions of Quebec(Montreacuteal Monteacutereacutegie and central Quebec) influ-enced different types of crimes committed

The study found that there was no uniform trendin crimes committed in the three regions duringthe ice storm although the total number of crimesin most crime categories decreased compared withthe same time period in the preceding year InMontreacuteal for instance there were fewer theftsespecially from grocery stores non-commercialenterprises and banks but there were increases invehicle thefts from car dealerships Montreacuteal andMonteacutereacutegie also saw an increase in arson duringthe ice storm In central Quebec there was adecrease in almost all types of crime

The study concluded that five factors affectedcriminal behaviour during the crisis

bull the extent of social disruption

bull the opportunities for committing crime

bull inhibiting factors (eg increased surveillanceand blocked access)

bull informal social controls (ie altruism) and

bull disaster preparedness


traditional food species and obtain access to cleandrinking water(75) There is concern among northerncommunities that such impacts will continue andworsen in the future (see Box 4)

Another concern for northern residents is the possible impact of climate change on traditionalfood sources (see lsquoCoastal Zonersquo chapter) Highertemperatures may accelerate both the loading ofthe northern environment with pollutants and therelease of pollutants from soils and sediments into ecosystem food webs For example research

suggests that climate warming could enhance theuptake of toxic metals by fish Elevated levels ofcadmium and lead in Arctic char have been attrib-uted to higher fish metabolic rates induced byhigher water temperatures and longer ice-free seasons (see lsquoFisheriesrsquo chapter reference 77) The safety and benefits of traditional food sourcesare an important issue for northern residents

In addition a warmer climate could make it moredifficult to safely conserve perishable foods throughcold storage in snow or ice or through naturalfreezing(76) Poisoning (botulism) from traditionalfoods stored at insufficiently low temperatures hasbeen a recurring public health problem in Alaskaand is being addressed by educational programs(78)

Adaptation

Adaptation measures have the potential to greatly

reduce many of the potential health impacts of

climate change

Canadians escape many climate-related extremes by using a wide range of physical and social adap-tation measures Seasonal changes in our clothingand lifestyles the design of our buildings andother structures and behavioural social and eco-nomic adaptations have allowed us to remain generally healthy and comfortable except underthe most extreme weather and climate conditionsNevertheless the possibility that future climatechanges will force Canadians to deal with conditionsbeyond the range of historical experience suggeststhat there will be new stresses on the health sectorand that additional adaptation will be necessary

To address population health risks resulting fromclimate change a two-step process in which therisks are managed in a systematic and comprehen-sive manner has been recommended(79) First thereis a need to assess the vulnerabilities and adaptivecapacities of different regions communities andpopulation groups The next step would involveidentification and selection of the most appropriateresponse strategies The linkage between climatechange mitigation and adaptation actions is par-ticularly strong in the health sector because of

BOX 4 Health impacts in Nunavik and Labrador(75)

In this study researchers examined the potentialhealth impacts of climate change on communitiesin Nunavik and Labrador by integrating informationfrom scientific and Inuit knowledge

In addition to conducting literature reviews andconsultations with scientists and health profes-sionals the researchers also worked with groupsof elders hunters and women in the region Thisallowed them to develop a better understanding ofthe main concerns related to climate change forcommunities in this area The researchers usedthe information gathered to produce a series offact sheets and identify areas in need of furtherresearch This work will help northern decision-makers and residents deal with the potentialimpacts of climate change

Photo courtesy of S Bernier

Kuujjuaq Nunavik


the health benefits derived from reducing green-house gas emissions Assessments must take intoaccount not only the possible impacts of climatechange on the health sector but also the capacityto adapt to those impacts This process is well suited to being examined as part of an integratedrisk-management framework(79)

Work has also already started on developing vaccines against several viruses and protozoaresponsible for emerging infectious diseases preva-lent in the tropics including malaria and West Nile virus(80 81) These new vaccines may help tolimit the future spread of emerging viral diseasesMonitoring for emerging diseases and public education programs that provide information onreducing the risk of exposure and transmissionwill also serve to limit the threat of infectious diseases For example satellite measurementscould be used to determine linkages between environmental conditions and the spread of some pathogen vectors(82)

As noted previously health impacts related to anincreased frequency of extreme climate events andclimate-related natural disasters are a key area ofconcern Although many Canadian municipalitieshave emergency management plans in place theiremergency management capacity tends to varywidely Communities prone to weather-related hazards such as avalanches floods heat or coldwaves or storm surges should generally be betterprepared to cope with increased frequencies ofsuch extreme events than communities that haverarely experienced them although other factors arealso important This is exemplified by contrastingemergency response to the 1997 Red River flood inManitoba where disaster plans proved effectivewith the 1998 ice storm in eastern Ontario andQuebec where emergency power supplies fooddistribution systems and emergency shelter pro-vision were insufficient to deal with the crisis(25)

Measures have since been taken to strengthenemergency preparedness and response capacity in the region affected by the ice storm(83)

In addition to emergency management another keycomponent of responding to extreme climate eventsis the implementation of early warning systems(16)

Such a strategy has been successfully introduced in Toronto to help reduce the health impacts ofextreme heat and cold (see Box 5) Other importantadaptive measures to reduce the health risks of climate change include land use regulations suchas limiting floodplain development and upgradingwater and wastewater treatment facilities (seelsquoWater Resourcesrsquo chapter)

Several Canadian cities are promoting longer-termmeasures aimed at reducing the heat-island effectSummer temperatures in urban areas tend to reach

BOX 5 Reducing mortality from temperatureextremes(84)

In June 2001 public health adaptation measureswere implemented in Metropolitan Toronto to helpprotect residents from extreme heat and coldevents Extensive collaborations between many different governmental (eg emergency serviceshousing services libraries) and nongovernmental(eg pharmacy chains seniorsrsquo networks) organizations were established to help protectmore vulnerable population groups such as sen-iors and homeless people from thermal extremes

Some examples of the adaptation strategies implemented include

bull extreme cold weather and extreme heatannouncements via news media

bull active intervention by public health and volun-teer agencies (eg street patrols to locate andcare for homeless people)

bull increased availability and accessibility ofheated and air-conditioned public buildingsdrop-in centres and shelters and

bull new guidelines for managing long-term care facilities


higher extremes than surrounding rural areas inpart due to the prevalence of infrastructure andsurfaces which act to absorb rather than reflectincoming solar radiation In a Toronto-based studyresearchers recommended promotion of cost-effective measures such as the large-scale use of light-coloured reflective lsquocoolrsquo surfaces for roofs and pavements and the strategic placementof vegetation to provide shade(84) These measuresare being promoted as lsquowin-winrsquo adaptation optionsas they also serve to reduce energy usage

Other researchers however note that adaptationmeasures may themselves entail some health andsafety risks For example green spaces harbour animals birds and biting insects or ticks whichmay serve as reservoirs for infectious diseases such as Lyme disease(85) and the West Nile virusTherefore careful planning and testing of proposedadaptation measures as well as health surveillanceafter the introduction of adaptation measures maybe needed


A study of the health infrastructure in theToronto-Niagara region revealed several barriers to effective adaptation to climate variability andchange(24) These barriers stem from knowledgegaps insufficient organization and coordinationand inadequate understanding and communicationof climate change and health issues within thehealth community If adaptation measures are tobe successful these barriers must be overcome(see Box 6)

Successful adaptation will also depend on Canadiansbecoming more aware of and actively engaged inpreparing for the potential health impacts of climatechange Several nongovernmental organizations have begun to draw the attention of their membersand the public to the causes and effects of climatechange and to the need for both mitigation andadaptation measures Among these are the Canadian

Public Health Association(86) and the CanadianInstitute of Child Health which published its assessment of the implications of climate change for the health of Canadian children(69)

Some key recommendations stemming from theseinitiatives include

bull increasing the capacity of the health sector tomanage the risk to human health and well-beingfrom climate change particularly for the mostvulnerable population groups including childrenthe elderly and disabled persons and

bull managing population health risks in a systematicand comprehensive manner so that climatechange is integrated into existing frameworksrather than being addressed as a separate issue

BOX 6 Overcoming barriers to adaptation(24)

To overcome barriers to effective adaptationresearchers recommend the following

bull Develop integrated responses to addressingclimate change and health issues

bull Expand existing monitoring reporting and surveillance networks to include climate-related health impacts

bull Increase and improve professional and publiceducation regarding adaptive actions

bull Involve organizations such as the CanadianAssociation of Physicians for the Environmentin education campaigns

bull Learn and build from past experiences todevelop organizational structure for proceedingwith an adaptation action plan



There is growing awareness that climate change willplace additional stress on the Canadian health sectorIn recent years numerous studies examining the rela-tionships between climate change and health haveshown that the effects of climate change will not beuniform that they will interact with other stresseson health and the health sector and that they maynot be clearly localized Although work has begunon developing mechanisms and frameworks toaddress these issues there remain many researchneeds and knowledge gaps concerning both thepotential impacts and our capacity to adapt

Some research needs as identified in the studiesreferenced in this chapter include the following

Impacts

1) Better understanding of whether and how climate change could make environmental conditions in southern Canada more favourablefor the establishment or resurgence of infec-tious diseases

2) Studies on how climate change will affect thesustainability health safety and food supply of northern communities

3) Better understanding of the health effects of heat waves across Canada

4) Better understanding of the impacts of climatechange on the safety and supply of drinkingwater for Canadian communities

5) Studies on how extreme climate events affectmental health and human behaviour

Adaptation

1) Examination of the factors that affect our currentcapacity to adapt including physiological fac-tors psychological factors (eg knowledgebeliefs attitudes) socio-economic factors andthe characteristics of health care systems

2) Progressive development and implementation ofbiological and health surveillance measures asadaptations to climate change

3) Further research into the development of pre-ventative adaptation measures such as thedevelopment of vaccines for emerging diseasesand alert systems for extreme temperatures

4) Research on the role of emergency managementand hazard prevention in reducing the negativehealth effects (both physical and psychological)of extreme climate events

5) Evaluation of the effectiveness and adequacy ofexisting measures that are likely to be proposedas possible adaptation tools such as public healthadvisories (eg smog information boil-wateradvisories beach closings)

Conclusion

Climate change has the potential to significantlyaffect human health and well-being in CanadaSome key concerns include an increase in illnessand premature deaths from temperature stress air pollution and increases in the emergence andpersistence of infectious diseases The effects of climate-related natural hazards and extreme eventson both physical safety and mental health areanother concern Communities in northern Canadawill face additional issues resulting from theimpacts of climate change on ecosystemsAlthough there will likely be some benefits suchas a decrease in cold-weather mortality negativeimpacts are expected to prevail The impacts willbe greatest on the more vulnerable populationgroups such as the elderly children the infirmand the poor

Adaptation will be necessary to reduce health-relatedvulnerabilities to climate change Some adaptationinitiatives include the development of vaccines foremerging diseases public education programs aimedat reducing disease exposure and transmission andimproved disaster management plans The imple-mentation of early warning systems for extreme heatis another effective adaptation strategy Successfuladaptation will require coordinated efforts amongdifferent groups and the consideration of climatechange in health care decision making


References


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(2) Canadian Institute for Health Information (2002)Health care in Canada 2002 available on-line athttpsecurecihicacihiwebdispPagejspcw_page=AR_43_Eampcw_topic=43 (accessed April 2003)

(3) Pelletier L Buck P Zabchuk P Winchester Band Tam T (1999) Influenza in Canada 1998ndash1999season Health Canada Canada CommunicableDisease Report v 25 no 22 available on-line athttpwwwhc-scgccapphb-dgspsppublicatccdr-rmtc99vol25dr2522ehtml (accessed April 2003)

(4) Li Y (2000) The 1999ndash2000 influenza seasonCanadian laboratory diagnoses and strain charac-terization Health Canada Canada CommunicableDisease Report vol 26 no 22 available on-line athttpwwwhc-scgccapphb-dgspsppublicatccdr-rmtc00vol26dr2622eahtml (accessed April 2003)

(5) Trudeau R (1997) Monthly and daily patterns ofdeaths Statistics Canada Health Reports vol 9 no 1 available on-line at httpwwwstatcancaenglishindepth82-003archive1997hrar1997009001s0a05pdf (accessed April 2003)

(6) Brooks GR and Lawrence DE (1998) Geomorphiceffects and impacts from July 1996 severe flooding in the Saguenay area Quebec Natural ResourcesCanada available on-line at httpstsgscnrcangccapage1geohsaguenaysaguenayhtm (accessed April 2003)

(7) Hartling L Pickett W and Brison RJ (1999) The injury experience observed in two emergencydepartments in Kingston Ontario during the lsquoIceStorm 98rsquo Canadian Journal of Public Health v 90 no 2 p 95ndash98

(8) International Red River Basin Task Force (2000) The next flood getting prepared International Joint Commission Ottawa final report of theInternational Red River Basin Task Force to theInternational Joint Commission 62 p available on-line at httpwwwijcorgpdfnextfloodepdf(accessed April 2003)

(9) Slinger R Werker D Robinson H and BourdeauR (1999) Adverse health events associated with the1998 ice storm report of hospital surveillance of theeastern Ontario health unit region Health CanadaCanada Communicable Disease Report vol 25 no 17 available on-line at httpwwwhc-scgccapphb-dgspsppublicatccdr-rmtc99vol25dr2517eahtml (accessed April 2003)

(10) Haines A McMichael AJ and Epstein PR (2000)Environment and health 2 global climate changeand health Canadian Medical Association Journal v 163 no 6 p 729ndash734

(11) Aron JL and Patz JM ed (2001) EcosystemChange and Public Health A Global PerspectiveJohns Hopkins University Press BaltimoreMaryland 480 p

(12) Wilson ML (2001) Ecology and infectious diseasein Ecosystem Change and Public Health A GlobalPerspective (ed) JL Aron and JA Patz JohnsHopkins University Press Baltimore Maryland p 283ndash324

(13) Albritton DL and Filho LGM (2001) Technicalsummary in Climate Change 2001 The ScientificBasis (ed) JT Houghton Y Ding DJ Griggs M Noguer PJ van der Linden X Dai K Maskelland CA Johnson Contribution of Working Group Ito the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change CambridgeUniversity Press p 21ndash84 also available on-line athttpwwwgridanoclimateipcc_tarwg1010htm(accessed April 2003)

(14) Canadian Institute for Climate Studies (2002)Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios available on-line at httpwwwcicsuviccascenariosindexcgiScenarios (accessed April 2003)

(15) Natural Resources Canada (2000) Sensitivities to climate change in Canada available on-line at httpadaptationnrcangccaresource_easp(accessed April 2003)

(16) McMichael A Githeko A Akhtar R Carcavallo RGubler D Haines A Kovats RS Martens P Patz J and Sasaki A (2001) Human health in Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation andVulnerability (ed) JJ McCarthy OF Canziani NA Leary DJ Dokken and KS White Contributionof Working Group II to the Third Assessment Reportof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeCambridge University Press p 451ndash485 also avail-able on-line at httpwwwgridanoclimateipcc_tarwg2347htm (accessed March 2003)

(17) Duncan K Guidotti T Cheng W Naidoo KGibson G Kalkstein L Sheridan S Waltner-Toews D MacEachern S and Last J (1997)Canada Country Study impacts and adaptation ndashhealth sector in Responding to Global ClimateChange National Sectoral Issue (ed) G Koshidaand W Avis Environment Canada Canada CountryStudy Climate Impacts and Adaptation v VII p 501ndash620

(18) Health Canada (2001) First Annual National Healthand Climate Change Science and Policy ResearchConference how will climate change affect prioritiesfor your health science and policy research HealthCanada Climate Change and Health Office


(19) Koshida G and Avis W (1998) Executive summaryCanada Country Study Volume VII in Responding toGlobal Climate Change National Sectoral Issue (ed)G Koshida and W Avis Environment CanadaCanada Country Study Climate Impacts andAdaptation v VII p 501ndash620

(20) Cohen S and Miller K (2001) North America inClimate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation andVulnerability (ed) JJ McCarthy OF CanzianiNA Leary DJ Dokken and KS White contribu-tion of Working Group II to the Third AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange Cambridge University Press p 735ndash800also available on-line at httpwwwgridanoclimateipcc_tarwg2545htm (accessed April 2003)

(21) Klaver JDA (2002) Climate change and humanhealth a Canadian Prairie perspective MSc thesisUniversity of Alberta Edmonton Alberta 182 p

(22) Klaver J Soskolne CL Spady DW andSmoyer-Tomic KE (2001a) A feasibility assess-ment to study societal adaptation and humanhealth impacts under various climate change scenarios anticipated in the Canadian Prairiesreport on Prairie Roundtable Discussions preparedfor the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborativeavailable on-line at httpwwwphsualbertacaPARC-RTD-Reportpdf (accessed April 2003)

(23) Klaver J Soskolne CL Spady DW andSmoyer-Tomic KE (2001b) Climate change andhuman health a review of the literature from aCanadian Prairie perspective prepared for thePrairie Adaptation Research Collaborative 46 p

(24) Chiotti Q Morton I and Maarouf A (2002)Toward an adaptation action plan climate changeand health in the Toronto-Niagara region preparedfor the Climate Change Action Fund NaturalResources Canada 138 p

(25) Last JM and Chiotti QP (2001) Climate changeand health Canadian Journal of Policy Research v 2 no 4 p 62ndash69

(26) Davis RE Knappenberger PC Novicoff WMand Michaels PJ (2002) Decadal changes in heat-related human mortality in the eastern UnitedStates Climate Research v 22 p 175ndash184

(27) Sheridan SC Kent WP and Kalkstein LS(2002) The development of the new Toronto heat-health alert system Urban Heat Island Summit May 1ndash4 2002 Toronto Ontario available on-line athttpwwwcitytorontooncacleanairpartnershippdffinalpaper_sheridanpdf (accessed April 2003)

(28) Dhakhwa GB and Campbell C L (1998) Potentialeffects of differential day-night warming in global climate change on crop production Climatic Changev 40 no 3ndash4 p 647ndash667

(29) Epstein PR (2000) Is global warming harmful tohealth Scientific American August 20 2000

(30) Thompson W Burns D and Mao Y (2001)Report A-124 Feasibility of identifying heat-relatedillness and deaths as a basis for effective climatechange risk management and adaptation HealthCanada 57 p

(31) Cooper JK (1997) Preventing heat injury militaryversus civilian perspective Military Medicine v 162no 1 p 55ndash58

(32) Northern Climate Exchange (2002) Yukon historicaland projected temperature and precipitation trendsavailable on-line at httpyukontaiganetknowledgeresourcesprojectedhtml (accessed April 2003)

(33) Donaldson GC and Keatinge WR (1997) Earlyincreases in ischaemic heart disease mortality dissociated from and later changes associated withrespiratory mortality after cold weather in south eastEngland Journal of Epidemiology and CommunityHealth v 51 no 6 p 643ndash648

(34) McGregor GR (2001) The meteorological sen-sitivity of ischaemic heart disease mortality eventsin Birmingham UK International Journal ofBiometeorology v 45 no 3 p133ndash142

(35) Goldberg MS Burnett RT Brook J Bailar JCValois MF and Vincent R (2001) Associationsbetween daily cause-specific mortality and concen-trations of ground-level ozone in Montreacuteal QuebecAmerican Journal of Epidemiology v 154 no 9 p 817ndash826

(36) Ccedilakmak S Bartlett S and Samson P (2002)Environmental health indicators Health CanadaHealth Research Bulletin Issue 4 p 9ndash12

(37) Health Canada (2001) Health and air quality health effects available on-line at httpwwwhc-scgccahecs-sescair_qualityhealth_effectshtm (accessed June 2003)

(38) Maarouf A and Chiotti Q (2001) An update onthe threat of climate change to health in Canada in Proceedings of Water Climate and HealthSymposium October 25ndash27 2001 Panama CityPanama (CATHALAC)

(39) Diaz J Garcia R Velazquez de Castro FHernandez E Lopez C and Otero A (2002)Effects of extremely hot days on people older than65 years in Seville (Spain) from 1986 to 1997International Journal of Biometeorology v 46 no 3 p 145ndash149

(40) Jessiman B Burnett R and de Civita P (2002)Sulphur in gasoline and other fuels the case foraction (and inaction) Health Canada Health PolicyResearch Bulletin Issue 4 p 19ndash22

(41) Blomqvist A Crabbeacute P Dranitsaris G andLanoie P (2000) Climate Change and HealthEconomic Advisory Panel final report on healthimpacts of the greenhouse gas mitigation measuressubmitted to Health Canada 44 p


(42) Cifuentes L Borja-Aburto VH Gouveia NThurston G and Davis DL (2001) Assessing thehealth benefits of urban air pollution reductions asso-ciated with climate change mitigation (2000ndash2020)Santiago Sao Paulo Mexico City and New York CityEnvironmental Health Perspectives v 109 suppl 3p 419ndash425

(43) Natural Resources Canada (2003) Forest fires available on-line at httpwwwnrcan-rncangccacfs-scfscienceresrchforestfire_ehtml (accessedApril 2003)

(44) Global Fire Monitoring Center (2002) Forest fires inCanada 08 July 2002 available on-line at httpwwwfireuni-freiburgdecurrentarchiveca200207ca_07082002htm (accessed April 2003)

(45) Emmanuel SC (2000) Impact to lung health fromforest fires the Singapore experience Respirology v 5 p 175ndash182

(46) Wolfe SA (2001) Eolian activity in A Synthesis ofGeological Hazards in Canada (ed) GR BrooksGeological Survey of Canada Bulletin 548 p 231ndash240

(47) Curriero FC Patz JA Rose JB and Lele S (2001)The association between extreme precipitation andwaterborne disease outbreaks in the United States1948ndash1994 American Journal of Public Health v 91no 8 p 1194ndash1199

(48) Krewski D Balbus J Butler-Jones D Haas CIsaac-Renton J Roberts K and Sinclair M (2002)The Walkerton Inquiry Commissioned Paper 7Managing health risks from drinking water Facultyof Medicine and Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of Ottawa Queenrsquos Printer for OntarioToronto Ontario 258 p

(49) Chevalier P Pilote R and Leclerc JM (2002)Public health risks arising from the presence ofcyanobacteria (blue-green algae) and microcystins in three southwest Quebec watersheds flowing into the St Lawrence River Saint-Laurent Vision2000 newsletter 15 July 2002 available on-line athttpslv2000qccabibliothequecentre_documphase3rapport_cyanobacteriesaccueil_ahtm(accessed April 2003)

(50) City of Toronto (2001) Toronto beaches water qualityreports available on-line at httpwwwcitytorontooncabeachindexhtm (accessed April 2003)

(51) Weise AM Levasseur M Saucier FJSenneville S Veacutezina A Bonneau E Sauveacute Gand Roy S (2001) The role of rainfall river run-off and wind on toxic A tamarense bloomdynamics in the Gulf of St Lawrence (easternCanada) analysis of historical data report prepared for the Climate Change Action FundNatural Resources Canada

(52) Bentham G and Langford IH (1995) Climatechange and the incidence of food poisoning inEngland and Wales International Journal ofBiometeorology v 39 no 2 p 81ndash86

(53) Morshed MG (1999) Tick-borne diseases and lab-oratory diagnosis Clinical Microbiology ProficiencyTesting Connections v 3 no 1 p 1ndash4 availableon-line at httpwwwinterchangeubccacmptcmpt_newarchivedconnectionsticks3199htm(accessed April 2003)

(54) Morshed MG Scott JD Banerjee SNFernando K Mann R and Isaac-Renton J (2000) First isolation of Lyme disease spirocheteBorrelia burgdorferi from blacklegged tick Ixodesscapularis collected at Rondeau Provincial ParkOntario Health Canada Canada CommunicableDisease Report v 26 no 6 available on-line athttpwwwhc-scgccapphb-dgspsppublicatccdr-rmtc00vol26dr2606ebhtml (accessed April 2003)

(55) Drebot MA Artsob H and Werker D (2000)Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in Canada1989ndash1999 Health Canada Canada CommunicableDisease Report v 26 no 8 available on-line athttpwwwhc-scgccapphb-dgspsppublicatccdr-rmtc00vol26dr2608eahtml (accessed April 2003)

(56) Mills JN and Childs JE (1998) Ecologic studiesof rodent reservoirs their relevance for humanhealth Emerging Infectious Diseases v 4 no 4 p 529ndash537

(57) Calisher C Sweeney WP Root JJ and Beaty BJ(1999) Navigational instinct a reason not to livetrapdeer mice in residences Emerging Infectious Diseasesv 5 no 1 available on-line at httpwwwcdcgovncidodeidvol5no1lettershtm (accessed April 2003)

(58) Jassoum SB Fong IW Hannach B and Kain KC(2000) Transfusion-transmitted babesiosis in Ontariofirst reported case in Canada Health Canada CanadaCommunicable Disease Report v 26 no 2 availableon-line at httpwwwhc-scgccapphb-dgspsppublicatccdr-rmtc00vol26dr2602eahtml (accessedApril 2003)

(59) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2001)CDC Lyme Disease Home Page available on-line athttpwwwcdcgovncidoddvbidlymeindexhtm(accessed April 2003)

(60) Martens P (1998a) Health and climate changemodelling the impacts of global warming and ozone depletion Health and the Environment Series Earthscan Publications Ltd London United Kingdom 176 p

(61) Bradley CB Zaki MH Graham DG Mayer MDiPalma V Campbell SR Kennedy S Persi MASzlakowicz A Kurpiel P Keithly J Ennis JSmith P and Szlakowicz O (2000) Probable locallyacquired mosquito-transmitted Plasmodium vivaxinfection Suffolk County New York 1999 Centersfor Disease Control Morbidity and Mortality WeeklyReport v 49 no 22 p 495ndash498 also available on-line at httpwwwcdcgovmmwrpreviewmmwrhtmlmm4922a4htm (accessed April 2003)


(62) Seys SA and Bender JB (2001) The changingepidemiology of malaria in Minnesota Centers for Disease Control Emerging Infectious Diseases v 7 no 6 available on-line at httpwwwcdcgovncidodeidvol7no6seyshtm (accessed April 2003)

(63) Moore CG and Mitchell CJ (1997) Aedes albopictusin the United States ten-year presence and publichealth implications Centers for Disease ControlEmerging Infectious Diseases v 3 no 3 p 329ndash344

(64) Ziska LH and Caulfield FA (2000) Rising CO2 and pollen production of common ragweed(Ambrosia artemisiifolia) a known allergy-inducingspecies implications for public health AustralianJournal of Plant Physiology v 27 no 10 p 893ndash898

(65) Burch M and Levetin E (2002) Effects of meteor-ological conditions on spore plumes InternationalJournal of Biometeorology v 46 no 3 p 107ndash117

(66) Dales RE Cakmak S Judek S Dann T CoatesF Brook JR and Burnett RT (2003) The role offungal spores in thunderstorm asthma Chest v 123p 745ndash750

(67) Martens WJM (1998b) Health impacts of climatechange and ozone depletion an ecoepidemiologicmodeling approach Environmental HealthPerspectives v 106 suppl 1 p 241ndash251

(68) Walter SD King WD and Marrett LD (1999)Association of cutaneous malignant melanoma with intermittent exposure to ultraviolet radiationresults of a case-control study in Ontario CanadaInternational Journal of Epidemiology v 28 no 3p 418ndash427

(69) Enright W (2001) Changing habits changing climate a foundation analysis Canadian Institute of Child Health Ottawa Ontario 116 p

(70) Krug EG Kresnow MJ Peddicord JP Dahlberg LL Powell KE Crosby AE andAnnest JL (1998) Suicide after natural disastersNew England Journal of Medicine v 338 no 6 p 373ndash378

(71) Ouimet M and Blais E (2001) Rhythms of crimeshow weather and social factors affected the dailyvolume of crimes in greater Montreacuteal from 1995 to 1998 report prepared for the Climate ChangeAction Fund Natural Resources Canada 55 p

(72) Anderson CA (2001) Heat and violence CurrentDirections in Psychological Science v 10 no 1 p 33ndash38

(73) Lemieux F (2001) The impact of the ice stormcrisis in Quebec in 1998 on criminality (inFrench) report prepared for the Climate ChangeAction Fund Natural Resources Canada 36 p

(74) Fenge T (2001) The Inuit and climate changeIsuma Canadian Journal of Policy Research Winter 2001 issue p 79ndash85


(76) Nickels S Furgal C Castelden J Moss-Davies PBuell M Armstrong B Dillon D and Fongerm R(2002) Putting the human face on climate changethrough community workshops in The Earth is FasterNow Indigenous Observations of Arctic EnvironmentalChange (ed) I Krupnik and D Jolly Arctic ResearchConsortium of the United States Arctic Studies CentreSmithsonian Institution Washington DC p 300ndash344

(77) Koumlck G Doblander C Wieser W Berger B andBright D (2001) Fish from sensitive ecosystems asbioindicators of global climate change metal accumu-lation and stress response in char from small lakes inthe high Arctic Zoology v 104 suppl IV p 18

(78) Horn A Stamper K Dahlberg D McCabe JBeller M and Middaugh JP (2001) Botulism outbreak associated with eating fermented foodAlaska 2001 Centers for Disease Control Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report v 50 no 32 p 680ndash682 available on-line at httpwwwcdcgovmmwrpreviewmmwrhtmlmm5032a2htm(accessed April 2003)

(79) Health Canada (2000) Health Canada decision-making framework for identifying assessing andmanaging health risks Health Canada 75 p

(80) Marshall E (2000) Reinventing an ancient cure for malaria Science v 290 p 437ndash438

(81) Taubes G (2000) Searching for a parasitersquos weakspot Science v 290 p 434ndash437

(82) Estrada-Pena A (1998) Geostatistics and remotesensing as predictive tools of tick distribution a cokriging system to estimate Ixodes scapularis(Acari Ixodidae) habitat suitability in the UnitedStates and Canada from advanced very high resolution radiometer satellite imagery Journal of Medical Entomology v 35 no 6 p 989ndash995

(83) Beauchemin G (2002) Lessons learned ndash improv-ing disaster management in Proceedings from High Impact Weather Conference Ottawa CanadaApril 11 2002 Institute for Catastrophic LossReduction University of Western Ontario LondonOntario p 14ndash18

(84) Basrur S Jessup P Akbari H and Kalkstein L(2001) Development of model adaptation strategiesto reduce health risks from summer heat inToronto report prepared for the Climate ChangeAction Fund Natural Resources Canada

(85) Daniels TJ Falco RC Schwartz I Varde S andRobbins RG (1997) Deer ticks (Ixodes scapularis)and the agents of Lyme disease and human granulo-cytic ehrlichiosis in a New York City park Centersfor Disease Control Emerging Infectious Diseases v 3 no 3 p 353ndash355

(86) Canadian Public Health Association (2001) Strategicplan on health and climate change a framework forcollaborative action final report of the Roundtableon Health and Climate Change Canadian PublicHealth Association Ottawa Ontario

Conclusion

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation ACanadian Perspective presents an overview of current issues in climate change impacts and adap-tation in Canada as reflected in research conductedover the past five years The discipline has evolvedsignificantly as researchers from a wide range ofdisciplines have become increasingly involvedEnhanced interest reflects the growing realizationthat even with effective mitigation measures somedegree of climate change is inevitable Impacts areno longer viewed as hypothetical outcomes but asrisks that need to be addressed through adaptationIndeed as emphasized in the Third AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange adaptation is a necessary complement toreducing greenhouse gas emissions in addressingclimate change at all scales

Adaptation to climate change represents a challengeto all countries of the world including CanadaAlthough climate change may be unique in its scopeand the potential magnitude of its impacts humanshave always adapted to changes in their environ-ment both climatic and non-climatic so there is afoundation of knowledge upon which to build Thepurpose of adaptation is not to preserve the statusquo since that will simply not be possible for mostecosystems and many human systems Rather thegoal of adaptation is to reduce the negative impactsof climate change while taking advantage of newopportunities that may be presented Since therewill always be uncertainties associated with climatechange the issue is best addressed in the context ofrisk management

An important shift over the past 5 to 10 years hasbeen the growing recognition of the importance ofconsidering social economic and political factorsin addition to biological and physical ecosystemfactors in impacts and adaptation studies Forinstance preliminary studies have been conductedinto the costs of both potential impacts and variousadaptation options There has also been increasinguse of the concept of vulnerability in impacts andadaptation research Vulnerability refers to thedegree to which a system region or sector is sus-ceptible to or unable to cope with the effects ofclimate change and climate variability Researchfocused on vulnerability emphasizes the need todevelop a strong understanding of the current stateof the system being studied by involving stake-holders and taking an integrative multidisciplinaryapproach Through consideration of current vul-nerability along with scenarios of future climatesocial and economic conditions it is possible toestimate future vulnerabilities in the context of riskmanagement Continued improvements in climatemodelling and scenario development are importantfor impacts and adaptation research Likewiseimproved understanding of how adaptation occursand what barriers exist to successful adaptation is extremely important

The seven sectoral chapters of the report outlinethe potential impacts of climate change on key sec-tors of Canadarsquos economy providing a review ofrecent research and identifying knowledge gaps andresearch needs Through this review it is evidentthat climate change impacts and our ability to

ldquoThe world community faces many risks from climate

change Clearly it is important to understand the nature

of those risks where natural and human systems are

likely to be most vulnerable and what may be achieved by adaptive

responsesrdquo (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001)

C O N C L U S I O N 173


adapt to those impacts will differ both among sectors and among the various regions of CanadaThese differences will depend largely on the factorsthat determine vulnerability namely the nature ofthe climate changes the climatic sensitivity of thesector and its adaptive capacity There will be bene-fits and challenges for all sectors Comprehensiveassessment of this net balance has not been com-pleted and indeed may not yet be possible givenexisting knowledge gaps Nonetheless there is general consensus in the literature that negativeimpacts are expected to dominate for all but the mostmodest warming scenarios This is especially true forcertain sectors such as health and water resourcesand less so for others such as transportation

It is important to recognize that although issuesare presented on a sectoral basis in this reportmany of these sectors are strongly interdependentTherefore impacts on and adaptation decisionsmade in one sector will often have implications forother sectors This is especially evident in the caseof water resources where it is clear that many

other sectors including transportation agricultureand fisheries could be affected by decisions takento address changes in water quantity andor qualityIt is also important to consider interactions amongregions both within Canada and globally as lossesor benefits in one region often have far-reachingconsequences

Although gradual changes in mean conditions wouldbring both positive and negative impacts an increasein the frequency andor intensity of extreme eventswould present challenges for most sectors Extremeevents already often fall outside of current copingranges and cause critical thresholds to be exceededSystems that are currently under stress are generallyconsidered to be at the greatest risk Proactive andprecautionary adaptive measures would help reducelosses associated with current climate variability as well as increase resiliency to future changes in climate and extreme climate events Enhancingadaptive capacity through a range of technologicalregulatory and behavioural changes will bring bothimmediate and long-term benefits

adaptationnrcangccaadaptationnrcangcca

Acknowledgements

Table of Contents

Summary

Introduction



Water Resources

Agriculture

Forestry

Fisheries

Coastal Zone

Transportation


Research Needs and Knowledge Gaps

Conclusion

Introduction



Adapting to a Changing Climate


References

Research Directions


Scenarios


Conclusions

References

Water Resources

Previous Work


Water Demand



Conclusion

References

Agriculture

Previous Work


Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change


Conclusions

References

Forestry

Previous Work

Impacts

Adaptation


Conclusion

References

Fisheries

Previous Work


Adaptation


Conclusion

References

Coastal Zone

Previous Work

Impacts

Adaptation


Conclusion

References

Transportation

Previous Work

Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure

Impacts on Transportation Operations

Adaptation in the Transportation Sector


Conclusion

References


Previous Work

Health Effects of Climate Change and Climate Variability

Adaptation


Conclusion

References

Conclusion

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program

The overarching goal of the Government of Canadarsquos Climate Change Impacts and AdaptationProgram is to reduce Canadarsquos vulnerability to climate change The research program supportscost shared research to address gaps in our knowledge of Canadarsquos vulnerability to climatechange and to provide information for adaptation decision-making

The program also supports the Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network(C-CIARN) This network facilitates linkages between stakeholders and researchers promotesnew research techniques and methodologies disseminates information and provides a voicefor an emerging impacts and adaptation research community

Additional copies of this report can be obtained from Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Directorate Natural Resources Canada 601 Booth StreetOttawa OntarioK1A 0E8

adaptationnrcangcca

copy Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2004

ISBN 0-662-33123-0Cat No M174-22004E

This publication is also available athttpadaptationnrcangccaperspective_easp

Ce document est eacutegalement offert en franccedilais sous le titre Impacts et adaptation lieacutes auxchangements climatiques perspective canadienne










Acknowledgements





Table of Contents

Summary v

Introduction 1


Water Resources 33

Agriculture 51

Forestry 71

Fisheries 93

Coastal Zone 113

Transportation 131


Conclusion 171


Summary

Introduction




















Water Resources



S U M M A R Y i x












lake front


(eg spawningareas)

contamination






irrigation and farm

operations


water contamination


SAMPLE ISSUE

SECTORS IMPACTED




OVERALL RESULT



S U M M A R Y x i






Agriculture
































Forestry














S U M M A R Y xv



Fisheries












Coastal Zone






S U M M A R Y xvi i






Climate changeand

sea level rise
















S U M M A R Y x ix

Transportation










Conf

iden

ce L

evel

a

NATIONAL IMPACTS





NORTHERN CANADA



SOUTHERN CANADA







wM

oder

ate

High













S U M M A R Y xx i











































Conclusion


Introduction



































A Range of Impacts








































References

















Research Directions








Year Title
















































































Upper threshold

Lower threshold

Increased coping


Copingrange


Time (years)











Coping Range

Flooding occurs


Time (years)

Rive

r flo

w (m

3 s)

Trend line

Rive

r flo

w (m

3 s)

Coping Range

Flooding occurs


Time (years)


















Scenarios







What are Scenarios



Types of Scenarios

















Search

Feedback

Topics Questions


BaselineConditions














Synthetic Scenarios



Analogue Scenarios




































Specific Issues

Scale of Analysis




















Future Work









Conclusions






References












































































Water Resources















































Previous Work











lake front


(eg spawningareas)

contamination






irrigation and farm

operations


water contamination


SAMPLE ISSUE

SECTORS IMPACTED




OVERALL RESULT





























Peyto Glacier
































Ecological Impacts









Water Demand







































of the adaptation















































Impacts










Adaptation




Conclusion




References
































































Agriculture































Region Impacts












Previous Work



agriculturerdquo(9)









Impacts on Crops










































(12)






















Soil Degradation











Pests and Weeds




















Economic Impacts





















Adaptation Options















































Impacts







Adaptation







Conclusions





References















































































Forestry







our livesrdquo(1)

F O R E S T R Y 73









Previous Work



ecosystemsrdquo(3)




Impacts







F O R E S T R Y 75


Lower

Unchanged

Higher













F O R E S T R Y 77

































F O R E S T R Y 79







Forest Fires















Region Prediction

















Insect Outbreaks









F O R E S T R Y 81


Extreme Weather




to climate change















Adaptation





















F O R E S T R Y 83







































F O R E S T R Y 85




























F O R E S T R Y 87

Conclusion





References























F O R E S T R Y 89
















































F O R E S T R Y 91












































Fisheries











Atlantic Pacific










Previous Work


















Pacific Coast















Atlantic Coast












Atlantic snow crab





















Atlantic salmon



Arctic Coast



























Adaptation













(metalimnion)














Aquaculture


















Impacts










Adaptation






Conclusion




References













































































































Coastal Zone




















Previous Work











Climate changeand

sea level rise










Impacts









Atlantic Coast















BEFORE AFTER






Arctic Coast
























Beaufort Sea coast









the region(41)










Adaptation





















































Impacts





Adaptation







Conclusion




References


































































Transportation




































Conf

iden

ce L

evel

a

NATIONAL IMPACTS





NORTHERN CANADA



SOUTHERN CANADA







wM

oder

ate

High






Previous Work




















































Repaired pipeline


















Health and Safety








































Information Systems





















Conclusion




References




























































































o

f ave

rage

dai

ly nu

mbe

r of d

eath

s










Previous Work







































Temperature Stress






30

31

32

33

Rural RuralFarmland



Urban Residential


Late

afte

rnoo

n te

mpe

ratu

re (deg

C)


















Waterborne Diseases





Food-Borne Diseases













Allergens



























Adaptation



climate change







Kuujjuaq Nunavik





































Impacts






Adaptation






Conclusion




References



























































































Conclusion

















Acknowledgements

Table of Contents

Summary

Introduction



Water Resources

Agriculture

Forestry

Fisheries

Coastal Zone

Transportation



Conclusion

Introduction





References

Research Directions


Scenarios


Conclusions

References

Water Resources

Previous Work


Water Demand



Conclusion

References

Agriculture

Previous Work




Conclusions

References

Forestry

Previous Work

Impacts

Adaptation


Conclusion

References

Fisheries

Previous Work


Adaptation


Conclusion

References

Coastal Zone

Previous Work

Impacts

Adaptation


Conclusion

References

Transportation

Previous Work





Conclusion

References


Previous Work


Adaptation


Conclusion

References

Conclusion










Acknowledgements





Table of Contents

Summary v

Introduction 1


Water Resources 33

Agriculture 51

Forestry 71

Fisheries 93

Coastal Zone 113

Transportation 131


Conclusion 171


Summary

Introduction




















Water Resources



S U M M A R Y i x












lake front


(eg spawningareas)

contamination






irrigation and farm

operations


water contamination


SAMPLE ISSUE

SECTORS IMPACTED




OVERALL RESULT



S U M M A R Y x i






Agriculture
































Forestry














S U M M A R Y xv



Fisheries












Coastal Zone






S U M M A R Y xvi i






Climate changeand

sea level rise
















S U M M A R Y x ix

Transportation










Conf

iden

ce L

evel

a

NATIONAL IMPACTS





NORTHERN CANADA



SOUTHERN CANADA







wM

oder

ate

High













S U M M A R Y xx i











































Conclusion


Introduction



































A Range of Impacts








































References

















Research Directions








Year Title
















































































Upper threshold

Lower threshold

Increased coping


Copingrange


Time (years)











Coping Range

Flooding occurs


Time (years)

Rive

r flo

w (m

3 s)

Trend line

Rive

r flo

w (m

3 s)

Coping Range

Flooding occurs


Time (years)


















Scenarios







What are Scenarios



Types of Scenarios

















Search

Feedback

Topics Questions


BaselineConditions














Synthetic Scenarios



Analogue Scenarios




































Specific Issues

Scale of Analysis




















Future Work









Conclusions






References












































































Water Resources















































Previous Work











lake front


(eg spawningareas)

contamination






irrigation and farm

operations


water contamination


SAMPLE ISSUE

SECTORS IMPACTED




OVERALL RESULT





























Peyto Glacier
































Ecological Impacts









Water Demand







































of the adaptation















































Impacts










Adaptation




Conclusion




References
































































Agriculture































Region Impacts












Previous Work



agriculturerdquo(9)









Impacts on Crops










































(12)






















Soil Degradation











Pests and Weeds




















Economic Impacts





















Adaptation Options















































Impacts







Adaptation







Conclusions





References















































































Forestry







our livesrdquo(1)

F O R E S T R Y 73









Previous Work



ecosystemsrdquo(3)




Impacts







F O R E S T R Y 75


Lower

Unchanged

Higher













F O R E S T R Y 77

































F O R E S T R Y 79







Forest Fires















Region Prediction

















Insect Outbreaks









F O R E S T R Y 81


Extreme Weather




to climate change















Adaptation





















F O R E S T R Y 83







































F O R E S T R Y 85




























F O R E S T R Y 87

Conclusion





References























F O R E S T R Y 89
















































F O R E S T R Y 91












































Fisheries











Atlantic Pacific










Previous Work


















Pacific Coast















Atlantic Coast












Atlantic snow crab





















Atlantic salmon



Arctic Coast



























Adaptation













(metalimnion)














Aquaculture


















Impacts










Adaptation






Conclusion




References













































































































Coastal Zone




















Previous Work











Climate changeand

sea level rise










Impacts









Atlantic Coast















BEFORE AFTER






Arctic Coast
























Beaufort Sea coast









the region(41)










Adaptation





















































Impacts





Adaptation







Conclusion




References


































































Transportation




































Conf

iden

ce L

evel

a

NATIONAL IMPACTS





NORTHERN CANADA



SOUTHERN CANADA







wM

oder

ate

High






Previous Work




















































Repaired pipeline


















Health and Safety








































Information Systems





















Conclusion




References




























































































o

f ave

rage

dai

ly nu

mbe

r of d

eath

s










Previous Work







































Temperature Stress






30

31

32

33

Rural RuralFarmland



Urban Residential


Late

afte

rnoo

n te

mpe

ratu

re (deg

C)


















Waterborne Diseases





Food-Borne Diseases













Allergens



























Adaptation



climate change







Kuujjuaq Nunavik





































Impacts






Adaptation






Conclusion




References



























































































Conclusion

















Acknowledgements

Table of Contents

Summary

Introduction



Water Resources

Agriculture

Forestry

Fisheries

Coastal Zone

Transportation



Conclusion

Introduction





References

Research Directions


Scenarios


Conclusions

References

Water Resources

Previous Work


Water Demand



Conclusion

References

Agriculture

Previous Work




Conclusions

References

Forestry

Previous Work

Impacts

Adaptation


Conclusion

References

Fisheries

Previous Work


Adaptation


Conclusion

References

Coastal Zone

Previous Work

Impacts

Adaptation


Conclusion

References

Transportation

Previous Work





Conclusion

References


Previous Work


Adaptation


Conclusion

References

Conclusion

climate change impacts and adaptationjohn smithers steve solomon colin soskolne dave spittlehouse...

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