climate change impacts on water resources management in kazakhstan duskayev kassym
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Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Management in Kazakhstan Duskayev Kassym Kazakh National University named after al-Farabi. Republic of Kazakhstan. Water Resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Lakes. Glaciers. River flows. Water reservoirs. Underground waters. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Management
inKazakhstan
Duskayev Kassym
Kazakh National University named after al-Farabi
Republic of Kazakhstan
Ftotal = 2,72 million sq. km
Water Resources of
the Republic of Kazakhstan
Fresh water reserves in the Republic of Kazakhstan, cu. km
190
95101
9558
Озера Ледники Сток рек Водохранилища Подземные воды
Lakes Glaciers River flows
Water reservoirs
Underground waters
Sourse:Water Resourse Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan
DEPENDENCE OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN UPON NEIGHBOURING STATES
58%
18%
8%
4%12%
Kazakhstan
China
Russia
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Sourse: Water Resourse Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Average annual balance of water resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Total – 100,5 км3
Surface flow within the RK
56,6.км3
Avialable surface water flow – 42.6 км3
Flow from the RK onadjacent countries
42,4 км3
Inflow from adjacent countries - 43,9 км3
Filtration and evaporation losses - 15,5 кm3
Sourse: Water Resourse Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Map of Main River Basins in Kazakhstan
Basins of rivers, lakes and seas
The total average annual water
resources of the rivers , кm³Total including inflow from
adjacent countries
Aral-Syrdarya 17.9 14.6
Balkhash-Alakol 27.8 11.4
Irtysh 33.5 7.5
Ishim 2.6 -
Nura-Sarysu 1.3 -
Tobol-Turgai 2.0 -
Shu-Talas 4.2 3.0
Ural-Caspian 11.2 7.5
Total for the Republic 100.5 44.0
Rivers flow in the Republic of Kazakhstan, cu. кm
Sourse:Water Resourse Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Water Supply by Hydro-economic Basins of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Nos.
Basins of rivers, lakes and seas
Water provision, %
50%
norm. 75%
provision 95%
provision 1 Aral-Syrdarya 90 82 77
2 Balkhash-Alakol 98 80 61
3 Irtysh 100 100 100
4 Ishim 90 40 10
5 Nura-Sarysu 53 20 5
6 Tobol-Turgai 89 33 6
7 Shu-Talas 90 73 56
8 Ural-Caspian 100 35 10
Total for the Republic 97 76 60
Water availability in the Republic of
Kazakhstan, the average water year
Water availability
Total, cu. km per
year
for 1 person,cu. m
per 1 square. km, cu. m
100,5 6000 37000
Water Consumption Parameters
Republic of
Kazakhstan
Water consumption, %
Total Utilities Industry Agriculture
Other
100 5.0 16.0 78.0 1.0
List of research institutes and organizations in assessing climate change in Kazakhstan
• State Republican Enterprise “The Kazakh State Climate and Ecology Research Institute” (KazNIIEK)• State Republican Enterprise “Kazhydromet”• Non-governmental organization “Coordination Centre on Climate Change”• Kazakh National University named after al-Farabi• Institute of Geography of the Ministry of Education and Science• Public Association “Karaganda oblast Ecological Museum” (Ecomuzei)• Institute of Botany and Phytointroduction of the Ministry
of Education and Science• The Kazakh Forest Management Enterprise• International projects
The linear coefficient of temperature trend of the surface air in Kazakhstan
Between 1936 and 2005, based on observation data from over 90 meteorological stations in Kazakhstan, the calculated linear trends in the mean air temperature time series and the sum atmospheric precipitation show that the climate of Kazakhstan in the period became significantly warmer.
The average annual temperature increased: - by 0,31°C /10 years - by 0,50°C /10 years – in winter - by 0,21°C /10 years – in summer
Sourse: State Republican Enterprise “The Kazakh State Climate and Ecology Research Institute” (KazNIIEK)
Sliding 5-years average temperature of the air on the data of the meteorological station Minjilki
-3,00
-2,50
-2,00
-1,50
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
1937
-194
1
1939
-194
3
1941
-194
5
1943
-194
7
1945
-194
9
1947
-195
1
1949
-195
3
1951
-195
5
1953
-195
7
1955
-195
9
1957
-196
1
1959
-196
3
1961
-196
5
1963
-196
7
1965
-196
9
1967
-197
1
1969
-197
3
1971
-197
5
1973
-197
7
1975
-197
9
1977
-198
1
1979
-198
3
1981
-198
5
1983
-198
7
1985
-198
9
yearstoC
Sourse: Kazakh National University named after al-Farabi
Climate change status: main conclusions
• Ubiquitous increase of seasonal and annual temperature
• Increase of climate aridity in deserts and semi-deserts areas of Kazakhstan, as well as adjacent areas
• Increase of total rainfall in the western and northern parts of Kazakhstan and central zone. The same trend was seen in the mountainous parts of the South and South-East of the country. However this had less impact on raising air temperatures.
• Degradation of glaciers has been recorded by 0,8% in South-East mountains and 1% in glacier storage.
Changes in average annual surface air temperature and annual total precipitation according to “hard”, “medium” and “soft” scenarios of GHG concentrations in Kazakhstan
Scenario Climate characteristics 2030 2050 2085
Medium Change in average annual air 1.4°C 2.7°C 4.6°C temperature Change in total annual +2% +4% +5% precipitation Extremely Change in average annual 1.2–1.9°C(1.3°C) 2.5–4.0°C (3.0°C) 5.7–8.0°C
(6.2°C) high (hard) air temperature Change in total annual 2– +8% (2.2%) -4– +15% (3.7%) 8–28% (6.5%) precipitation Extremely Change in average annual 1.5–2.2°C (1.7°C) 1.6–2.6°C (2.0°C) 3.1–3.4°C
(3.3°C) low (soft) air temperature Change in total annual 0-8% (3.0%) -3– +9% (1.7%) -2– +13% (4.1%) precipitation
Sourse: State Republican Enterprise “The Kazakh State Climate and Ecology Research Institute” (KazNIIEK)
Expected climate change: main conclusions
• Increase of seasonal and annual temperatures• Increase of precipitation in the winter period• Increase of the annual amount of precipitations• Decrease of rainfalls in the summer period since 2050• On the major territory of Kazakhstan increase of
precipitation does not compensate increase of air temperature
• All scenarios of GHG concentration change tend to increase of aridity
Sourse: State Republican Enterprise “The Kazakh State Climate and Ecology Research Institute” (KazNIIEK)
The potential impact of the climate change on water resources
• will increase on the average from 1-4 % to 14-22% in mountain areas
• will decrease by 7-10% in the plain areas• decrease total rivers flow from 100 cu. km to 75
cu. km per year
The degradation of the mountains glaciations and its impact on the resources of the river flow primarily in the basin Balkhash-Alakol.
Sourse: Institute of Geography of the Ministry of Education and Science
Regions were ranked on four summary indicators: • Economic potential for adaptation ;• Sensitivity to Climate Change ;• Climate change ;• Exposure to risk of emergency situations .
Ranking regions in terms of their vulnerability to climate change
A preliminary assessment of vulnerability
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Sourse: Project “Climate Risk Management in Kazakhstan”
The vulnerability of the regions of
Kazakhstan
Sourse: Project “Climate Risk Management in Kazakhstan”
Climate change adaptation and mitigation policies in Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention (Kyoto Protocol or KP) in May 1995 and April 2009 respectively. On September 17, 2009, Kazakhstan became an official Party to the KP.
March 2011, in Astana was presented new joint project of the Ministry of Environmental Protection of the RK, UNDP Kazakhstan and Global Environmental Fund "Assistance to the Republic of Kazakhstan in preparation of the Third National Communication in accordance with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC)“.
Kazakhstan has developed a National Programme for Adaptation to Climate Change.
Activities on adaptation to climate change in the water sector of the Republic of
Kazakhstan
In the National Communication (INC Kazakhstan, 2008) proposed 3 types of measures:
1) economic development with a focus on waterless and low-water technology;2) increasing the share of groundwater use;3) diversion of river flow within regions and beyond their borders.
To reduce the negative effects influence the vulnerability of water resources in the sector
requires:• reconstruction of irrigation systems and water systems to
minimize water loss; • replacement of moisture-loving crops on irrigated lands less
moisture-loving crops; • introduction of advanced technologies in irrigated
agriculture;• introduction of low-water technology and water recycling
systems in existing industrial enterprises and utilities;• the use of wastewater; • review modes hydropower;• dredging, the reconstruction of docks and piers on navigable
rivers:• replacement of the existing ship types of river transport and
fishing fleet on the court with less rainfall.
Activities to optimize the health of aquatic ecosystems and the environment:
– strict limitation of economic activity in most shallow areas and transfer it to other areas;
– strict measures to establish a sanitary protection zones near surface water sources and places groundwater
– mandatory environmental impact assessment of new projects on the use of water resources;
– widespread use of chemical and biological wastewater treatment;
– development and implementation of additional reclamation, agro forestry and agro-technical measures to ensure environmental safety of water resources;
– create a favorable water heat regime for habitat and reproduction of fish and other living organisms, regulating their numbers.
Measures to adapt water resources of Kazakhstan in the basins of the Irtysh, Ishim and Tobol
Events Priorities Additional water volume, million cu. m
Estimated investment: $ million
Irtysh River Basin
Flow regulation 1 3610 182
Saving water 2 1699 3470
Run-off diversion 3 250 1071
Groundwater 4 402 3304
TOTAL 5961 8027
Ishim River Basin
Flow regulation 1 135 90
Saving water 2 132 107
Run-off diversion 3 105 126
Groundwater 4 43 309
TOTAL 415 632
Tobol River Basin
Saving water 1 301 574
Groundwater 2 55 635
TOTAL 356 1209
Thanks for your attention!