climate change implications for the royal australian navy stephen.pdf · 360 climate and energy...
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MyobjectivetodayistoprovideaperspectivefromsomeonewholivesintheSouthPacific.ThisisaphotoofSydney,andIlivenotfarfromthere,butthatisourmainfleetbaserightintheheartofSydney.WhatIwouldliketotalktoyouaboutaresomeofthekeychallengesposedby climate change to theRoyalAustralianNavyandtothosewhoresideinthePacificregion.
We have already heard several presentations on climatechange,soIwillgooverthisfairlyquickly.OneoftheissuesthatIbringtomypeopleathomewhenIspeaktothemisthatwearetalkingaboutfossilfuelshere.Wearetalkingaboutsequestrationofcarbonthatoccurredoveraperiodof60millionyears,some300millionyearsago,andwearediggingupthismaterialandweareburningit.Itwasstoredascoal,oil,gas,etc.,andthataccumu-latedCO2isbeingreleasedrapidlyintotheatmospherebyhumanactivities.AndAustraliansarethesourceofsomeofthatactivity.
Commander Stephen Cole is a Reserve officer in the Royal Australian Navy with 25 years service as a seaman officer on Navy landing craft and patrol boats, and as a diving officer. Steve then worked as Port Services Manager at Darwin Naval Base for some years and led the organization during the East Timor crisis in 1999. Steve joined Navy Headquarters as Navy Environment Manager in 2001 to help guide environmental policy and compliance of the service. Key areas of focus include dis-posal of obsolete vessels, compliance with international conventions, and mitigation measures to manage potential environmental impacts. Before his Defense service, Steve was a lecturer in the Science faculty at Charles Darwin University, having previously completed a B.Sc. (Hons.) in marine biology and a Ph.D. in eco-physiology. An ongoing inter-est is to understand the impacts of climate change on the Australian environment.
7.4 CLIMAtE ChANGE IMPLICAtIoNS FoR thE RoyAL AuStRALIAN NAVy
Commander Stephen Cole
360 Climate and Energy Proceedings 2010
Some 85% of our electrical energy is provided by coal. Inmylifetime,Ihavebeeninvolvedwithclimatechangeresearch.Istarteddoingmyundergraduatestudiesaround1980,andatthattime Ihadan infraredgasanalyzer that Iused tomeasureplantphotosynthesis.Intheearly1980s,whenIzeroedoutthegasana-lyzeratthestartofmymeasurements,itshowedanatmosphericCO2concentrationofabout338partspermillion.Figure1showsanalmostlinealincreaseinCO2levels;currentlyit isuparound380 parts per million. So in the time that I have been involvedinthescienceofclimatechange,wehaveseenabouta20–25%increaseinCO2levels.
Figure1isaninterestinggraph,forthoseofyouwhohavenotseenitbefore,becausetheblacklineistheSouthPacificincrease,and,intheNorthernHemispherelocations,youcanseeadistinctsawtoothpattern.AndIfinditreallyinteresting.YoucanlookatthesegraphsandyoucanseethattheNorthernHemispherehasmostofthelandintheworld.TheSouthernHemisphereismostlyoceans.AndsotheNorthernHemispherepatternissuperimposedwiththesummer–wintercycleofproductivity.
Figure 1. Carbon Dioxide and the Atmosphere
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Asforclimatechangechallenges,thefourthIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangereportstated,“Warmingoftheclimatesystem is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations ofincreases in global average air and ocean temperatures, wide-spread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sealevel.” [1]Note that thestatementuses theword“unequivocal.”Weare seeingchanges toairandocean temperatures.Thevastmajorityofglaciersintheworldareretreating.Wearealsoseeingreductionsinicecapsandrisingsealevel.
Iamnowgoingtodiscusssomeoftheregionalimpactsthatarelikelyfromclimatechange.ThewestPacificandthePacificregiondiffersubstantiallyfromtheNorthernHemisphere,andIwilltalkalittlebitaboutthat.IwilltalkaboutsomeofthevulnerabilitiesthattheRoyalAustralianNavyfacesandsomeofthechallengestheyface.AndIwilltalkaboutsomeofthestrategiesthatwemightbeabletousetoavoidthosevulnerabilitiesbecomingserious.
Sofirst,theprimaryeffectsofclimatechangethatwearelikelytoseeincludecoastalinundation,morefrequentandheavierpre-cipitationevents,andmoreintenseandlongerdroughts(Figure2).Those of you who know a little bit about Australia will knowthatAustraliaisoftenreferredtoratherpoeticallyas“thelandofdroughtandfloodingrain.”Well,whatclimatechangeistellingusisthatthisisgoingtobecomealotworse.
Figure 2. Primary Effects of Climate Change
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IcurrentlyliveinCanberra,thecapitalofAustralia,notfarfromSydney. Over the last 10 years, Canberra has had its three hot-testyearsonrecord.Wehavehad9yearsofsubstandardrainfall,and,inoneofthoseyears,wereceivedabout20%ofourannualrainfall.Theoneyearthatwedidhaveaveragerainfall,itonlyjustmettheaverage.Sooverthelast10years,Canberraisabout4feetshortofthecumulativeamountofrainfallthatitshouldhavehadin thatperiod.When I speak topeople inCanberra, I tell themthatwhatwe are seeing is the effects of 2°Cof climate changebecausethatiswhatthemodelpredictionsforSouthernAustraliaare,abouta25%decreaseinrainfall.Someoftheissuesincludehigher sea states and wind speeds as well as resource scarcity,particularlywater.
As I said,Australia isadrycontinent. In fact, it is thedriestinhabited continent on the planet. Large parts of Australia arealreadyexperiencinga seriouswater shortage.Wewill seedeg-radations to natural habitat and a reduction in the resilience ofspeciestocopewiththesechanges,andsotherewillbechangestodistributionsofspecies.ManyofthesethingsthatweareseeingherearecriticalforcountriesofthesouthwestPacificinparticular.Wewillseeincreasingtemperatures;infact,wearealreadyseeingthose increasing temperatures inAustraliawith these record-set-tingyearsoverinthelastdecade.
TheimplicationforrisingsealevelinAustralianwatersisabitofatrickything.Mostofyouwillunderstandthatsealevelhasacontributionfromthermalexpansion.Asthewatergetshotter, itexpands.Andthereisalsoacontributionfromthepolaricecap,meltingof icecapsandglaciers,etc. InAustralia it isabouthalfandhalf:thetwoarecausingthesea-levelrise.Thusfar,wehaveseenabout6–7 inchesof sea-level rise; theAustralianAntarcticDivision’s latest studies predict an additional sea level rise ofbetween1.0and1.2meters(around40inches)by2100.[2]Thoseestimates,however,areprobablystillconservative.
AsIhavesaid,theprimarycausesofsea-levelriseareicemeltandthermalexpansionoftheocean.Asaresult,insomelocationsyouwillgetalargersea-levelriseratethaninanotherlocation.
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TheicebergshowninFigure3brokeofffromAntarcticaearlierthisyear.ItisabouttwicethesizeoftheAustraliancapitalterritoryor,foryouAmericans,aboutfourtimesthesizeofRhodeIsland.Asyoumaybeaware,AntarcticaisanunusualcontinentinthatasignificantportionofWestAntarcticaisactuallywellbelowsealevel.Thegroundthereiscoveredbyanicecapthatisroughly3kilometers thick.Between the icecapand thebedrockbeneathis a layer of water that is between 100 and 500 meters deep.Oneof themany climateunknowns is howquickly that systemwillbecomeunstable.There isa lotof researchgoingon in theAntarcticDivision inAustralia inanattempt tounderstandwhattheimplicationsareforsea-levelriseifthereisaninstabilityinthewestAntarcticicesheet.
AsshowninFigure4,measuredsea-levelriseatSydneycur-rentlystandsatabout10millimetersperyear,althoughtherateisaccelerating.TheproblemthatwehaveandthatIforeseeisthatthistemperaturethatweareexpectingoverthiscenturyisunusualinat least theprevious1300years.Onehas togobackaround125,000yearsagotofindatimethatwaswarmerthanitisnow.
Figure 3. Regional Effects of Climate Change
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Atthattime,sealevelstabilized4–6metershigherthanitistoday.Givenourpredilectionasaspeciesforlivingonthecoastandtheincredibledensityof infrastructureonthecoast, I finditdifficulttounderstandhow,asasociety,wecancopewith4–6metersofsea-levelrise,ifthateventuates.
Itisquiteclearthattemperaturesareincreasing.YoucanseeitonthegraphprovidedasFigure5.Thisisoneofmanygraphs
Figure 4. Coastal Inundation Facts [3]
Figure 5. Rate of Energy Consumption with Increased Temperature
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availablethatshowthisincreaseintemperaturethatisbeingcausedbyclimatechange impacts.Thatwillonly lead tohigherenergyconsumption.AlreadyinAustraliaweareseeinganexplosioninthenumbersofair-conditioningsystemsfittedtohouses.Soit isdifficulttoseehowwecanconstrainourenergyconsumptioninasituationinwhichwearegettingsignificanttemperatureincreases.
Figure6showsthestormincidenceintheNorthAtlantic,butIcanassureyouitisexactlythesameintheareainwhichIlive.Theproblemthatitcreatesforusisthatbecausethereismoreenergycomingintothesystem,thestormsareliabletobemoreviolent,with higher wind speeds and great sea states. And that createsrealchallengesforoperatingandalsoincreasedresponsibilitiesforsearchandrescueandaidtothecivilcommunity.
IwouldalsoliketopointoutsomeofthekeyissuesthatIfeelarealittleunderestimatedwithregardtoclimatechange.ThemostimportantimpactfortheAustralianNavyisliabletoberelatedtoinfrastructure.Wehaveroughlythesamevalueofinfrastructureinourshoreestablishmentsaswedoinour60shipsandaircraft.Butthereisnotasmuchfocusontheinfrastructurebecauseitjustis
Figure 6. Number of Severe Storms in the North Atlantic
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notasinteresting.Becauseallofourinfrastructureisonthecoast,itisvulnerabletosea-levelrise.Itisvulnerabletochangesininten-sityofstorms.AndsowewillseethetypesofproblemsoutlinedinFigure7.
Thefirstexampleofsea-level-riseimpactwillbethroughstormwaterdrainage-type systems,which require ahead to allow thewater to flow.Andonceyou lose thathead,orpartof it, thesesystems break down. And having spoken to other navies, theyhavesimilarissueswithinfrastructurethatisagedandatthelimitsof its capability.Copingwith increased stresseswill require thatmoneybespenttorepairthesystems.Thereareliabletobeissuesrelatedtotheperformanceofbreakwatersandotherseamitigationdevices.Depthclearancewillbeanissue.Waveactioncanpopthewharfoffitsfooting,sowearegoingtohavetostartlookingattheseissues.Sothereisapropensityformoremaintenance,whichwilldriveupthecostsforthesesystems.Therewilllikelybelossofsomecoastalfacilitiessimplybecausetheydonothaveenoughheightabovesealevel.
AsIhavesaid,theproblemsintheSouthPacific,andinthePacific ingeneral, areverydifferent from those in theNorthernHemisphere.Wehavetorememberthatmanyofthepeoplewholiveinthesecountriesaresubsistencefarmersorsubsistencefishers.
Figure 7. Climate Change Infrastructure Implications
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Theyrelyonalotofforeignexchangecomingfromtourism.Sothehealthof their coral reefs and thehealthof their ecosystemarefundamentaltotheirsurvival.Climatechangepredictionsincludebleachingofcoralreefsaswellasdamagetofisherystocks,move-mentsof some fisherystocks,and lossofothers.Manyof thesecountriesarenotcurrentlymanagingtheirfisheriesinparticularlysustainableways.Sothereispotentialforlossoffisheries.Thereispotentialforlossofcoralreefs.Suchissuesareverymuchattheheartoftheproblemformanyofthesenationsthatrelyontourismforthemajorityoftheirforeignexchange.
Italsoseemslikelythatclimatechangewillhaveadestabilizinginfluenceonregionalsecurity(Figure8).Thereiseventhepoten-tial for loss of some sovereignnations, oneofwhich is the tinyislandcountryofKiribati.Kiribatiisprettyeasytofindonaglobe.Look for the equator and then find the spot where the equatormeets180degreesof longitude—the InternationalDateline.TheislandofKiribatioccupiesthatspot.Itishometoafewthousandpeople who rely on subsistence agriculture. Unfortunately, theirlandisonlyacoupleoffeetabovesealevel.Oncetheyareinun-dated,theyhavenowheretolive.So,ifyouwanttothinkaboutthenationsthatwillbethefirsttobeimpactedandlostasaresultofclimatechange,thePacificiswhereyouhavetolook,andKiribatiisprobablythemostvulnerableofallofthosenations.
Figure 8. Impact of Climate Change on Regional Countries
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Thiswillleadinevitablytotheappearanceofclimaterefugeesinthisregion.ItisinterestingtonotethatNewZealandhasalreadyofferedtotaketheentirenationofKiribatiwhentheircountrygoesunder.Whenthathappens,Ithinkitwillbeawalk-upcallforallofus,alertingusthatweneedtodosomethingaboutthisissue.Ihopethatitwillserveasacatalysttogetfurtheractiononclimatechange.Itisquiteclear,also,thatincreaseddefensecivilcommu-nityaidwillberequired.Thosepeoplewillneedtobeevacuated.Theywillneedsupport.
IntermsofoperationalimpactsontheRoyalAustralianNavy,Ibelieveit isverysimilartoallofthestatementsthathavebeenmadewithregardtotheU.S.Navy.Wehaveparticularvulnerabili-tiesbecausewehaveasmallerNavy,andmostofourplatformsaresignificantlysmallerthanthoseusedbytheU.S.Navy.Figure9showshelicopteroperationsontheleftandreplenishmentatseaontheright.Bothofthoseactivitiesarelimitedbyseastateandwindspeed.Allofthepredictionsforourregionarethatseastatesandwindspeedswillgethigher.Ifthathappens,ithasthepotentialtoimposelimitsonwhentheseactivitiescanbeundertaken.
Second,intermsofoperationalimpacts,illegalfishingisalreadyalargeissueforAustralia.Wemanageourfisheriesresourcesvery
Figure 9. Operational Impacts as a Result of Climate Change
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closely,andsowetendtogetothernations’fishermencomingintoourEconomicExclusionZone to take fish.We typicallyhave tobringin600–800illegalfishingvesselseachyear.ButIexpectthatthosenumberswillincreasebecausetheeffectsofclimatechangemeanthatfishingwillbecomelesspredictableandtherewillbemorepressureonthesystem,solessfish.
Search and rescue is bound to increase.Youhaveprobablyseenthisphotoof theMS Explorer,whichhit iceandfounderedayearor soago (Figure10).Australia is responsible forprovid-ing search-and-rescue capability over about one-seventh of theworld’soceanarea—ahugearea.WealreadyanticipatethattheincreaseintourismthatwillcomeasicediminishesintheSouthernOcean,andtheincreasedfishingaccessthatwillgoonascondi-tionsbecomemoremild in theSouthernOcean,willmean thattherewillbemoreshipsandmoreaircraftandmorefishingves-selsoperatingthere.Asaresult,itismorelikelythatyouwillhaveproblemslikethisoccurring.
Intermsofresiliencetoclimatechange,Ithinkitisfairlyeasytosaythatweneedtogetbiggerplatforms.Oneofthechallengesto operating in high sea states and high wind speeds in smallvessels is that it isprettyuncomfortable.Asyoucanseeon the
Figure 10. Additional Operational Impacts as a Result of Climate Change
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left inFigure11,wehavebeenusingLPAships thatareex-U.S.Navyships.Theyaresoon tobe replaced in thenext fewyearsbyaSpanish-designedlandinghelicopterdock(shownintherightpanelofFigure11).Thatrepresentsaboutathreefoldincreaseinthesizeofthevessel.
Althoughclimatechangehasnotmotivatedthatchange,itwillassistus inmeeting someof thechallenges thatwecan foreseefrom climate change. Something similar is happening with ourpatrolboats.InthetimethatIhavebeeninvolvedintheNavy,wehavehadthreeclassesofshipsthathavepaidoff.Figure12showstwomuseumshipsalongsideourlatestpatrolboatandgivesyouafairlygoodsnapshotofhow,astheproblemofillegalfishingandmaritimepatrolhasexpanded,thecapabilityrequirementthatwehaveneededhasalsoexpandedandwehavegoneupaboutfourtofivetimesintermsofthesizeofplatform.
Again,thatprocessmeansthatwehavemorecapableplatformstoassistwiththetypesofimpactsweexpectfromclimatechange.Intermsofshoreinfrastructure,oneofthethingsthatIhavestartedtoinitiateisareviewofthatinfrastructurebecauseIthinkthatthelargestcostfortheRoyalAustralianNavywillinevitablybethatfor
Figure 11. Ways to Build Resilience to Climate Change
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ourinfrastructure(Figure13).WhatIhavebeenaskedtodoisgetapanelofpeopletogethertolookatallofoursitesanddoariskanalysis thatwillallowus to identify the locations thataremostlikelytobeimpactedbysea-levelrise.
Figure 13. Shore Infrastructure Issues and Climate Change
Figure 12. Latest RAN Patrol Boat (Left) with Older Versions
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Wewillbelookingatwharfdeckheights,theheightofhardstandsabovesealevel,theeffectivenessofdrainagesystems,andtheimpactsthatyouaregoingtogetfromchangestowindspeedontheabilityoflargeshipstoberthalongsidethewharfs.AsshowninFigure13,HMASStirling,whichisnearPerthonthesouthwestcorner of Australia, is situated in low-lying country. We alreadyhave afternoon wind-speed problems with berthing ships. Withclimatechange,thosetypesofproblemsarelikelytocontinue.
Finally,Iwouldjustliketoshowyouanexample.WhenItraveleachyear fromSydney toAdelaide tovisitwithmysister,abouthalfway across I pass Lake Boga in outback New South Wales.TheimageontherightinFigure14showswhatLakeBogalooksliketoday,after10yearsofextendeddrought.Becausethepredic-tionsforthesouthwestcornerofAustraliaareratherdire,Iexpectthat it will be some time before we again see the view shownontheleft.
rEFErENCES1. IPCC,Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007, IPCC,
2007.
2. AustraliaAntarcticDivision,http://www.antarctica.gov.au/.
3. AntarcticClimateandEcosystemsCooperativeResearchCentre,Large Iceberg Breaks off the Mertz Glacier in the Australian
Figure 14. Lake Boga in the Past (Left) and After 10 Years of Drought (Right)
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Antarctic Terriory, 26 Feb 2010, http://www.acecrc.org.au/drawpage.cgi?pid=news&sid=news_media&aid=797707.
4. PewCenteronGlobalClimateChange,www.pewclimate.org.
5. The Age, The Sinking of the MS Explorer in Antarctica,5 Dec 2008, http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/travel/the-sinking-of-the-ms-explorer-in-antarctica/20081205-6s8l.html?selectedImage=5.