• Pa

leocli

mate R

esearch • Georgia Tech •

Cobb Lab

Climate change in 2016:An Eyewitness accountfrom the tropical Pacific

@coralsncaves

GoogleEarth

me

GoogleEarth

August,2013

Nov 2015

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov

August,2014

November,201530-90% bleached0-90% deaddepending on site

November,2015dead Acropora coloniesdominate this site

April,201685% dead10% bleached5% healthy

Past trips:Aug 2014 Nov 2015March 2015 March 2016July 2015

The Dream Team:Kim Cobb, Mark Hay (Georgia Tech)Julia Baum (U. Victoria, ecologist)Ruth Gates (UH, coral ecologist)Mark Merrifield (UH, phys. oceanography)Brian Powell (UH, phys. oceanography)Samantha Stevenson (NOAA, climate modeler)

Research Goal:Document short- and long-term effects of 2015/16 El Niño on reef environment and ecology

What’snextforthereefatChristmas?

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

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−1

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1

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InstrumentalrecordofElNiñohistoryCentralPacificTem

peratures(°C

)(departurefrom

average)

1mm sampling transect for coral oxygen isotopes (18O/16O)

last 100+ yrs

last 7000 yrsU/Th dated

“mini-cores” capturerecent 3-5yrs of growth

Eight different Line Island coral records track ocean temperatureover last decades

Coral1

8 O/1

6 Oratio

ElNiño(warm)

LaNiña(cool)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

−5.5

−5

−4.5

−4

b18O

IGOSS SST*Evans99−0.15*Nurhati09+0.03*X12−6+0.09X12−3+0.03X14−1+0.06*X14−14+0.12X14−7−0.033X14−9+0.00

preliminary oxygen isotope values for “mini-core” during 2015/2016 El Niño

HowdoescurrentElNiñoactivitycomparetopre-industrialElNiñoactivity?

01000200030004000500060007000

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a

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Lake

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lc.

Red

Inte

nsity

R = -0.16

c b

20th century coral stdev(2-7yr) All fossil coral stdev(2-7yr)

010002000300040005000600070000

10

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Years Before Present

El J

unco

% S

and

Comparison of SA Lake Records

Lake PallcacochaEl Junco

60

160

126.6

93.3

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ge in

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e Model Year

CCSM4 stdev(2-7yr)

GFDL CM2.1 stdev(2-7yr)

stronger ENSO

weaker ENSO

Figure'2'

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ge in

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PNG−LiangPNG−MadangPNG−MS01PalmyraChristmasNINO3.4

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PNG−LiangPNG−MadangPNG−MS01PalmyraFanningChristmasNINO3.4

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Christmas MA

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ge in

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PNG−LiangPNG−MadangPNG−MS01PalmyraFanningChristmasNINO3.4

C"

Compilation of new and published coral-based paleo-ENSO reconstructions

MODERN FOSSIL

Key points: 1)  large range in paleo-ENSO variations implied by available data

Woodroffe'et'al.,'2003'Tudhope'et'al.,'2001'

Cobb'et'al,'2013'Cobb'et'al.,'2003'McGregor'et'al.,'2004,'2013'Grothe'et'al.,'in'prep'

f

0%

+40%

-40%

+20%

-20%

CoralAge(years)

%strengthrelativ

eto198

5-20

15

El Niño stronger than 1985-2005

El Niño weaker than 1985-2005

Today

1985-2005ElNiñostrength

Answer:presentElNiñoactivityissignificantlystrongerthanpre-industrialvalues,though notunprecedented

Cobbetal.,2013;Grothe etal.,inprep

FirstevidencethatElNiñomaybestrengtheninginresponsetogreenhousegases.

(Cobbetal.,Science2013)

FirstevidencethatElNiñomaybestrengtheninginresponsetogreenhousegases.

Threemoredatasetssupportourresults.(e.g.Lietal.,NatureClimateChange2013)

FirstevidencethatElNiñomaybestrengtheninginresponsetogreenhousegases.

Threemoredatasetssupportourresults.

Therecord2015/2016 eventistheicingonthecake.

link to story

graphic byGavin Schmidt,NASA-GISS

Things are happening faster than we thought.

But it’s never too late.

A bit of hope,Yellow Jacket style.

THE CARBON REDUCTION CHALLENGE

6 STUDENT TEAMS

8 WEEKS

1 PRIZE

Goal: 400,000 LBS CO2 SAVED

EAS3110

Partners:GTFacilitiesIBMBPHomeDepotChipotleTreesAtlantaDept VeteransAffairs3M

2016CO2 avoided:2.5million lbs

2015CO2 offset:3million lbs

THE CARBON REDUCTION CHALLENGE

6 STUDENT TEAMS

8 WEEKS

1 PRIZE

Goal: 400,000 LBS CO2 SAVED 0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CO

2av

oide

d (lb

s)

Year

Class CO2emissions(1 year)

2012 Winners

Team Lumber Jills

40 tons wood palletsrecycled in 2 months

$10,000 capitalinvestment

savings:$15,000/yr1,000,000 lbs CO2/yr

2013 Winners

45 floors at BP

lights off ½hr earlierat end of day

Savings in 2 months:$4,10060,000 lbs

2015 Winners

150 windows at GT

cost: $31,000savings: $3,500/yr

CO2 savings in 10yr810,000 lbs

NOTE: this photo does not reflect the actual project

2016 Winners

“cool roof” at GT

cost: $49,000savings: $5,100/yr

CO2 savings in 10yr1,500,000lbs

Project Overview● Inspired by the “White Roof Project”

○ Applying a reflective white coating lowers HVAC loads because the building itself is cooler○ A cool roof coating can reduce energy use by 10-15% (Department of Energy)

Lawrence Berkely Labs: http://goo.gl/QUBScp

Bringing this idea to campus

● Sustainable Education Building (SEB)● Partner with GT Facilities Management

○ Mr. Federico Del Risco

GT SEB Building: http://goo.gl/L1Lg03 SEB Roof: photo from Google Earth

Target: Sustainable Education Building

Energy efficiency:

It just makes cents.

But what about climate policy?

https://citizensclimatelobby.org

CarbonFeeandDividendnetgainforlow-Cemittersnetlossforhigh-Cemittersgovt doesn’tmake1cent!bipartisanappeal

“There are many ways of going forward, but only one way of standing still.”

--Franklin D. Roosevelt

The Cobb Lab