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temperature leading to a decrease in size of glaciers in the high mountains. This will resultin an eventual decrease of runoff fromsnowmelt leading to a decrease in availablewater. Estimates of freshwater availability andthe impacts of climate change in Mexico andSouth America over the next quarter centuryindicate that about 70% of the population willlive in regions with low water supply by 2025.

Displacement of people. People living in over-crowded shanty towns around large cities,especially in flood-prone areas and unstablehillsides, are particularly vulnerable toflooding. El Nio events cause damage tocritical infrastructure and disrupt access to vitalservices. El Nio-related flooding in 1997/8across Ecuador and Peru caused damage to 34hospitals and 485 small health centres 9 .Climate change may have already led to anincreased land loss along the coast of Braziland degradation of protective coral reefs alongthe coast of Ecuador resulting from bleachingrelated to increased sea temperatures.

Beneficial impacts. Not all changes will benegative: growing seasons may lengthen withbetter rains in some areas, or increasingtemperature may deliver increased crop,

livestock and fisheries yields. Howeverpredicting precisely what any of these changesare in the short term is currently speculative,

and beneficial impacts are likely to beoutweighed by the adverse impacts of unpredictable change.

Impact on the poorThe poor are already finding it difficult to copewith the effects of El Nio and hurricanes.For example, following Hurricane Mitch,households who lacked savings to draw fromand access to alternative employment sufferedfor longer than others.

The ability of the poor to cope with theclimate is being eroded by economicchanges, increasing urbanisation, increasedpopulation densities along coasts, andenvironmental destruction:

Changes in the economies of many LatinAmerican countries have led to morefluctuating markets in the place of fixed andguaranteed prices. This has reduced thesecurity of farmers and decreased their abilityto deal with further shocks;

An increasing proportion of the populationare concentrated in coastal states and inurban areas, so there will be an increasingpopulation vulnerable to sea level rise andincreased frequency and intensity of coastalstorms. Current estimates suggest that 75% of

Latin Americas population is urban, 60% livein coastal areas, and 60 out of 77 of thelargest cities are located on the coast; and

Environmental degradation, includingdeforestation and soil erosion, are increasingvulnerability of settlements, agricultural landsand industry to flooding and windstorms.

The country-levelresponseThe poor should be supported to manageclimate risks. Governments can do this byimproving planning and services.

Although storms and hurricanes are a regularfeature of the climate in Latin America,examples of mitigation of these risks are rare.Action is required today to support the poorscoping strategies and reduce their vulnerabilityto current climate variability and extremes.

Firstly, agencies and governments shouldimprove understanding of how current climate

patterns affect the vulnerability of the poor, sothat informed decisions can be taken on howto support poor peoples coping strategies. This

9 PAHO 2001 Disasters: Preparedness and Mitigation in the Americas. IssueNo. 84: http://www.paho.org/

10 ISDR 2002 Living with Risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiatives.ISDR (with UN, WMO and the Asian Disaster Reduction Centre), Geneva.Preliminary version prepared as an inter-agency effort coordinated by theISDR Secretariat:http://www.unisdr.org/unisdr/

The poorshould besupportedto manageclimaterisks

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will help identify which development policiesare of greater urgency, and which should beadjusted to integrate future scenarios.

Understand the vulnerabilitiesand capacities of the poor

Understanding the poors vulnerability andcapacities will help both development agenciesand governments identify what action isappropriate. If carried out using participatoryapproaches these assessments can helpcommunities to recognise their risks and takeaction. The Peruvian NGO, Ecocuidad, hasundertaken participatory risk assessments inLima by holding community meetings to mapout threats, vulnerabilities and capacities. This

has led to creation of volunteer brigadesspecialised in emergency rescue 10 .

Reduce the vulnerability of the poor

a) Support the poors coping strategies

Based on an understanding of thevulnerabilities, capacities and risks of the poor,ways of supporting the coping strategies of thepoor can be identified. Breaking down barriersand constraints that weaken their copingstrategies is a necessary first step. This mayinclude supporting the recognition of landrights and land reform, communal action inrisk reduction or access to financial services(see Box 2).

b) Support government action

Governments, with the support of their partnerdevelopment agencies, also have responsibilitiesto share the burden of climate risks and reducethe vulnerability of the poor through:

Delivery of essential services e.g. water andsanitation services. Investments of US$5.9million in water and sanitation could haveprevented the 1991 cholera in Peru epidemiccosting US$232 million in economic losses(e.g. tourism, loss in earnings, reduction infishery productivity and patient care) 14.Investments in water and sanitation servicesacross Latin America would benefit the healthof the poor substantially and preventoutbreaks of disease following El Nio andother climate extremes.

Environmental protection. It is widelyaccepted that environmental degradationcontributed to the devastation of HurricaneMitch. In response, NGOs in El Salvadorhave begun programmes to help reversedeforestation and soil erosion across CentralAmerica. The programme focuses onparticipation of local residents in water basinmanagement planning, increasing security of land tenure and promoting sustainablepractices in farming.

Land use planning. Municipalities inNicaragua are taking climate risks intoaccount during land-use planning. Hazardmaps and land use zoning is beingundertaken with the participation of localresidents to take account of local knowledge.

Early warning systems. A programme of community-based disaster preparedness in La

Masica, Honduras, successfully prevented anycasualties during Hurricane Mitch. Thesuccess of the programme was related to

Box 2

Examples of action tohelp the poor reducetheir risk to climateSupport land rights

Following heavy rainfall in Venezuela,poor households were restrained by alack of land rights to rebuild their homes

in less vulnerable locations. Many wereforced to reconstruct their houses inflood-prone ravines 11 .

Facilitate communal action

In Guyanan coastal towns, communitygroups in squatter settlements haveundertaken collective drain diggingand successfully reduced damagecaused by annual coastal flooding. Incontrast communities reliant onineffective municipal agencies have

suffered from poorly maintained drainsand flood damage 12.

Improve access to micro-credit

In Mexico poor rural households areoften more restrained by their lack of credit than their ability to predict rainfall.Deep tillage is a good water conservationtechnique in dry years but requires thefinancial liquidity to rent a tractor at therequired time of year. Often farmers areforced to leave this task until the spring

too late to help in moisture conservationor to take advantage of the first rains 13.

11 Red Crescent Society 2001 World Disaster Report: Focus on Recovery.International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva.

12 Pelling, M. 1998 Participation, Social Capital and Vulnerability to UrbanFlooding in Guyana. Journal of International Development 10: 469-486.

13 Eakin, H. 2000 Political-Economic Uncertainty and Climatic Hazards: TheUtility of Climate Forecasts for Small-scale Farmers in Tlaxcala, Mexico. IRI

Proceedings.14 Petrera M. and Montoya A. 1992 Loss in the time of cholera; Peru 1991.

PAHO Epidemiological Bulletin 13 (3): 9-11.15 InterAmerican Development Bank 1999 Facing the Challenge of Natural

Disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean: An IDB Action Plan.Sustainable Development Department: Special Report.

We need tounderstandhow theclimateaffects thevulnerabilityof the poor


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timely information on the onset of thehurricane and effective communityorganisation and know-how to protect livesand property. DFID is supporting anawareness-building programme across LatinAmerica to increase understanding of the risksassociated with hurricanes. The innovativeprogramme makes use of a radio soap operato communicate ways of reducing risks. TheInter-American Development Bank is alsocurrently assessing how weather forecastingcan be modernised in Latin America andhow risks are communicated 15 . These pilotapproaches can be applied elsewhere.

National disaster planning and coordination.The benefits of a national disaster plan wereillustrated in Cuba where, during HurricaneMichelle in 2001, over 700,000 people and777,000 were evacuated and moved tosafety. This required effective coordinationacross all levels of government.

Integrate climate risks intodevelopment planning

While economic growth will be vital inproviding opportunities for the poor, carefulplanning will be necessary to avoidmisconceived policies increasing thevulnerability of the poor.

The danger of ignoring climate risks indevelopment forecasts was illustrated in arecent study of disaster impacts on poverty. Thestudy simulated two development forecasts forNicaragua: one forecast assumed no disasterwould take place, and predicted that povertywould be halved by 2008; the other includeddisasters as a factor influencing development,and showed that only one disaster would resultin no progress in reducing poverty. It is clearthat the possibility of disasters needs to berecognised and specific steps taken to protectachievements in poverty reduction.

Poverty reduction strategy processes, and othernational level policy frameworks, can be usedto address climate risks and incorporatemeasures to reduce the risks faced by the poor.This complements efforts to achieve pro-poor growth by reducing inequality andmarginalisation, improving employmentopportunities for the poor, and providingeffective social protection. Bolivias PRSPrecognises that Bolivias economy and the poorare vulnerable to natural shocks. Theirvulnerability has been addressed by a socialprotection component, which forms one of thefour main components of the PRSP. However,

as yet, no specific fiscal or other measures toreduce the impact of adverse weather oneconomic growth have been identified 16 .

The following key sheets explore these issues inmore detail:

Key sheet 05 Responding to the risks of climate change: Are different approaches topoverty eradication necessary?

Key sheet 06 Adaptation to climate change:Making development disaster proof;

Key sheet 07 Adaptation to climate change:The right information can help the poor to cope;

Key sheet 08 Adaptation to climate change:Can insurance reduce the vulnerability of thepoor? and

Key sheet 09 Taking initial steps towardsadaptation.

The internationalresponseTo support adaptive capacity in Latin America,there are a number of implications forinternational policy and research, includingthe UN Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The UKGovernment will:

Work to foster a collective processallowing the exploration of options andnegotiation of solutions for a globalemissions reduction regime in partnershipwith developing countries;

Work with Latin America governments to placethe voice of poor countries in Latin Americamore effectively in the negotiation process;

Encourage the international research

community to develop research agenda thatreflect the needs of poor countries, are basedan understanding of current poverty andvulnerability, and provide tools to predict andunderstand current climate variability andextremes and short term climate changewithin planning timescales (3-5 years); and

Support Latin American governments toidentify the practical implications of information arising from the researchcommunity, including long-termscenarios generated by global or regional

climate models.

16 Moser, C. and Antezana, O. 2001 Social Protection Policy and Practice inBolivia: Its implications for Bolivias Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper(PRSP). ODI Working Paper 156, London: Overseas Development Institute;and International Monetary Fund and The International DevelopmentAssociation 2001 Bolivia: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Joint Staff Assessment.

Respondingto climate

variabilityrequires thedevelop-ment of planningsystems thatintegrateclimate risks


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Further readingRegional climate change impacts (Chapter 6):http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/regional/

Maps of climate change impacts

(World Resources Institute):http://www.climatehotmap.org/

Living with Risk: A global review of disasterreduction initiatives:http://www.unisdr.org/unisdr/

Risk reduction Network, ProVentionConsortium:http://www.proventionconsortium.org/

Caribbean Disaster Preparedness Network:http://www.cpacc.org/

Community risk reduction in the Caribbeanand Latin America: http://www.ciir.org/ciir.aspHealth prevention and programmes inCaribbean and Latin America:http://www.paho.org/

Report on Adaptation to climate change in thedeveloping world (IIED):www.iied.org/docs/climate/adapt_to_cc.pdf

Contact detailsDFID Public Enquiry Point

Tel: 0845 300 4100(local call rate from within the UK)

Tel: + 44 (0) 1355 84 3132(from outside the UK)Fax: + 44 (0) 1355 84 3632Email: [email protected]: http://www.dfid.gov.uk/

Global and Local Environment Team,Policy Division, DFID

Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7023 0934Fax: + 44 (0) 20 7023 0074Email: [email protected]


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