Climate Change on theClimate Change on theGreat Barrier ReefGreat Barrier ReefManagement effortsManagement effortsand challengesand challenges

David Wachenfeld& Paul Marshall

OutlineOutline

Background

Communication

Tactical Response

Strategic Response

Conclusions

Background

2,900 individual coral reefs Severe coral bleaching

events in 1998 and 2002 GBR has been lucky so far The warning bell has rung

25

26

27

28

29

1870 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080

2002 Aerial survey

(640 reefs)

Figure courtesy of Dr Janice Lough- AIMS

Communication

Regular status reports Dedicated website Stakeholder briefings Media– print, radio, TV Scientific reports Ministerial briefings

GBRMPA Bleaching Response PlanGBRMPA Bleaching Response Plan(in collaboration with AIMS & NOAA)(in collaboration with AIMS & NOAA)

Monitoring stress levels

Coral bleaching early warning system

Broad-scale surveys

Jan 4

Fine-scale surveys

Tactical ResponseTactical Response Tiered Monitoring SystemTiered Monitoring System

NOAA Hotspot development 2001/02NOAA Hotspot development 2001/02

Dec 22 Jan 14Jan 4 Jan 29 Feb 11 Feb 23 Mar 5 Mar 23

Tactical ResponseTactical Response Monitoring stress levelsMonitoring stress levels

AIMS/GBRMPA AIMS/GBRMPA AutomaticAutomaticWeather Weather StationsStations

26

27

28

29

30

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32

20-Nov 4-Dec 18-Dec 1-Jan 15-Jan 29-Jan 12-Feb 26-Feb 12-Mar 26-Mar

Avg

dai

ly te

mpe

ratu

re, d

eg C

2001-02 Average (poly)

Threshold starts at 30.1

Average

Remember…Remember…

Knowledge Credibility Empowerment

Public reporting program Tourism operators, Marine Parks

Rangers, scientists etc Reports received via

GBRMPA web site Helped focus surveys Communication tool

Tactical ResponseTactical Response Coral bleaching early warning systemCoral bleaching early warning system

Tactical ResponseTactical Response Broad-scale surveysBroad-scale surveys

From planes Structured random surveys

(n = 640) Five point categorical scale

Tactical ResponseTactical Response Fine scale surveysFine scale surveys

On SCUBA Rapid assessments

+ video transects

Structured random surveys(n = 27)

Targeted surveys (n = 8)

Method ExtentAverage Severity

(+mortality)

Maximum Severity

(+mortality)

Aerial Yes No No

Underwater (random)

Yes Yes No

Underwater (targeted)

No No Yes

Tactical ResponseTactical Response Why three types of survey?Why three types of survey?

Strategic ResponseStrategic Response

Reef conditionReef condition

“Resilience threshold”• BiodiversityBiodiversity

• Water qualityWater quality

• Over-fishingOver-fishing

Increase Increase resilienceresilience

Sea temperatureSea temperatureReduce rate and Reduce rate and magnitude of changemagnitude of change

Strategic ResponseStrategic Response Protecting Biodiversity

Effects of climate change on biodiversity other than corals Multiple use Marine Protected Area How to design a system of Highly Protected (no take) areas

within a Marine Protected Area? Pick winners or spread the risk? All physical, chemical and biological knowledge of Great

Barrier Reef synthesised into 70 bio-regions Target to protect at least 20% of each bio-region in HPAs New draft zoning plan raises HPAs from 4.6% to 32.5% Replication within each bio-region (spread the risk) Special and unique areas (fish spawning, turtle nesting etc)

Strategic ResponseStrategic Response

Strategic ResponseStrategic Response

ConclusionsConclusions Future climate scenarios unprecedented Further reef damage is almost certain Potentially irreversible ecological & economic impacts GBRMPA has implemented an annual tactical

bleaching response plan GBRMPA is informing national and international

policy on climate change GBRMPA is maximising GBR resilience by protecting

biodiversity, improving water quality, and reducing over-fishing