climate change: our final tragedy of the commons?
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Climate Change: our final Tragedy of the Commons?. Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre 2012. Presentation outline. Current aspirations and emission trends Why we should strive for 2°C The levels of mitigation required of the UK Behavioural and technical opportunities Messages for business - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change:
our final Tragedy of the Commons?
Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre
2012
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Manchester Energy
Presentation outline
Current aspirations and emission trends
Why we should strive for 2°C
The levels of mitigation required of the UK
Behavioural and technical opportunities
Messages for business
Summary
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Manchester Energy
“When I look at this [CO2] data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase
of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet.”
“we have 5 years to change the energy system – or have it changed”
Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist
Similar concerns expressed by government chief scientists, PwC, World Bank
The international energy agency’s view on climate change
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Manchester Energy
International ‘To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius
and take action .. consistent with science and on the basis of equity‘
EU ‘must ensure global average temperature increases do not exceed
preindustrial levels by more than 2°C’
UK ‘average global temperatures must rise no more than 2°C’
Climate change commitments
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How do 2 & 4°C futures fit with CO2 trends?
What is the role of energy?
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Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
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Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
RIO
Ear
th S
umm
it
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
(IPCC
)
Roya
l Com
mis
sion
repo
rt (6
0% b
y 20
50)
Dav
id K
ing
CC m
ost d
ange
rous
thre
at
Cop
enha
gen
Acco
rd
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Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Rio
+ 2
0G
loba
l eco
nom
ic d
ownt
urn
… yet emissions have continued to rise (~6% in 2010, ~3% 2011 & 12)
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Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Rio
+ 2
0
… so what of future emissions?
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Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Rio
+ 2
0 Energy system design lives (lock-in)
Supply technologies 25-50 year
Large scale infrastructures
Built environment
Aircraft and ships ~30 years
30-100 years
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Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Rio
+ 2
0
… and assuming current mitigation plans
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Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Rio
+ 2
0
~3000GtCO2 for 2000-2050
~5000GtCO2 for 2000-2100
… i.e. a 4°C – 6°C rise between 2050 & 2100
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Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Rio
+ 2
0
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Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Rio
+ 2
0
… but building low/zero carbon electrical supply needs to begin now
Too early for supply
Demand
SUPPLY & demand
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So, if 2°C is too
challenging, what about
4°C – or more?
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5°C - 6°C global land mean
… & increase °C on the hottest days of:
8°C - 10°C in Central Europe
In low latitudes 4°C gives
up to 40% reduction in maize & rice
as population heads towards 9 billion by 2050
For 4°C global mean surface temperature
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incompatible with an organised global community
beyond ‘adaptation’
devastating to eco-systems
highly unlikely to be stable (‘tipping points)
… consequently …
4°C should be avoided at ‘all’ costs
There is a widespread view that 4°C is:
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10% reduction in emissions year on year
40% reduction by 2015
70% 2020
90+% 2030
UK energy and the 2°C challenge
Impossible?
… is living with a 4°C global temperature rise by 2050-70 less impossible?
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Where to from here?
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Who needs to lead on these reductions?
Pareto’s 80:20 rule
80% of something relates to … 20% of those involved
~50% of emissions from ~1% of population
… as a guide 40-60% emissions from 1-5% population
run this 3 times
~80% of emissions from ~20% of population
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Who’s in the 1-to-5%?
Climate scientists
Climate journalists & pontificators
OECD (& other) academics
Anyone who gets on a plane
For the UK anyone earning over £30k
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What options are there technically?
FuelProduction,Extraction &TransportPowerstationTransmission
ElectricityConsumption
Light,Refrign
10 50 54 120 133
The Electricity system
Demand opportunities dwarf those from supply in short-term
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What options are there technically?
Car efficiency (without rebound)
EU 2015 plan 130g/km (fleet mean with buy out)
2008 BMW 109g/km, VW, 85-99g/km; 1998 Audi A2 ~ 75g/km
~8 year penetration of new cars … ~90% of vehicle-km
~40-50% CO2 reduction by 2020 with no new technology
Reverse recent trends in occupancy
~60-70% reduction by 2020
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So what do we know?
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For businesses the message is simple but uncomfortable
Should avoid 4°C at all costs
Need ~70% decarbonisation over next 5-10 years
Only small % of global population need to mitigate
Low carbon energy supply is too little too late in the West
Principal response is to reduce energy demand now
Carbon trading & prices are not viable for non-marginal (large) reductions
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Headline messages
Change behaviour - today (producers and consumers)
Improve technology - now & over the next few years
Consume less
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To Summarise
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Uncomfortable conclusions from conservative analysis
Link between cumulative emissions & temp’ is broadly correct
Non-OECD nations peak emissions by 2025/30
There are rapid reductions in deforestation & food emissions
No ‘discontinuities’ (tipping points) occur
& Stern/CCC/IEA’s “feasible” reductions of 3-4% p.a. is achieved
2°C stabilisation is virtually impossible
4°C by 2050-2070 looks ‘likely’ (could be earlier & on the way
to 6°C+)
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So … for businesses?
Lead by example
Don’t be the exception - (cars, planes, ships – all argue to be treated leniently)
Don’t hide behind blame of others - (UK blames China, China blame US …)
Consider the system - (e.g. shale’s impact on coal use, etc.)
Acknowledge it is not going to be easy – it will often hurt
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So … for businesses?
Be courageous as business leaders and as citizens
Mitigate for 2°C, but plan for 4°C – or more
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… and finally
“… this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of
where our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real
hope, if it is to arise at all, will do so from a bare assessment
of the scale of the challenge we now face.”
Anderson & Bows.
Royal Society 2011
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… and finally
“at every level the greatest obstacle to
transforming the world is that we lack the
clarity and imagination to conceive that it
could be different.”Roberto Unger
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Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre
2012
End