climate change: priorities and concerns for sri lanka
TRANSCRIPT
ClimateChange:Priori0esandConcernsforSriLanka
AsokaAbeygunawardanaChairman
StrategicEnterpriseManagementAgency
GHGemissions(GtCO2e/yr)
120
100
Baseline80
60
40
2°C20 (>66%chance)
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
+7°C+6°C
+5°C
+4°C
+3°C
+2°C
+1°C
+/-0
2020:~52GtCO2e
2030:~42GtCO2e
2010:47.5GtCO2e
Es0matedglobalwarmingby2100(°Crel.1850-1900)
What are we aiming for? Staying within the 2oC target
2°CpathwaysGlobaltotalemissions:
42GtCO2e(range:31-44)
BaselineGlobaltotalemissions:
65GtCO2e(range:60-70)
CurrentpolicytrajectoryGlobaltotalemissions:
60GtCO2e(range:58-62)
Uncondi0onalINDCcaseGlobaltotalemissions:
56GtCO2e(range:54-59)
Condi0onalINDCcaseGlobaltotalemissions:
54GtCO2e(range:52-57)
Uncon
d.IN
DCcase
12
14
Cond
.INDC
case
3.4cmTheGap
INDC contributions and the emissions gap
WhatdoINDCscontribute?• Gapisintheorderof
12to14GtCO2e/yr
Willthisbesufficienttostaybelow2°C?• Globalaverage
temperatureincreasewillbeintherangeof<3-3.5°Cbytheendofthecentury
LONG TERM GENERATION EXPANSION PLAN 2015-2034
CEYLON ELECTRICITY BOARD
Transmission and Generation Planning Branch
Transmission Division
Ceylon Electricity Board
Sri Lanka July 2015
For50Years
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Energy(G
Wh)
CEBGenar0onPlan-BaseCase-2013-2032
Oil
Coal
NCRE
NewMajorHydro
ExisXngMajorHydro
Source:CEB
CEBPlan
• IwillpreparethegroundworkforthecountrytofulfilthebasicenergyrequirementsofthepeoplethroughrenewableenergysourcessuchasDendro(biomass)power,windpower,solarpower,oceanenergyetc.
• IwillspeciallytakeacXontobuilddendropowerstaXonsthroughoutthecountrysothatelectricityconsumers’moneythathithertodrainedtothepocketsofthecoalandoilmafiawillflowtotheruralpeasantry.ThusIwillmakepowergeneraXonachiefmeansofraisingthelivingstandardsofthepeasantry.
• IwillintroducesystemsandestablishinfrastructureforenergyconservaXonandusenewefficienttechnologyforthepurpose.Housesandbuildingswillbedesignedforensuringlowcarbonlifestyles.• Iwillacttodesignasystemwithminimumtransportrequirementsintownandcountryplanning.
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Energy(G
Wh)
CEBGenar0onPlan-BaseCase-2013-2032
Oil
Coal
NCRE
NewMajorHydro
ExisXngMajorHydro
Source:CEB
CEBvsGovt.Policy
RE
DSM