DEVELOPING THE NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE

POLICY

MASHUDU MUNDALAMO

CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION SECTOR COORDINATION UNIT

mmundalamo@environment.gov.za

012 310 3414

Presented at the RPMASA Workshop @ Midrand

19 August 2010

THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

• Climate change is defined as a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the atmosphere

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.

WG I: The physical science basis

Global mean Global mean temperaturetemperature

Global averageGlobal averagesea levelsea level

Northern Northern hemispherehemispheresnow cover snow cover

Warming of the climate system is unequivocalWarming of the climate system is unequivocal

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

100 0.0740.018

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,200

6, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,200

0

Period Rate 50 0.1280.026

Years /decade

Green House Effect

IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE CHANGE

SA compared to other countries

Emissions per capita

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Brazil China India OECD World

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er p

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-100200300400500600700800

ton

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$• Relative to the size of our population, emissions ‘per capita’ are

high• Emissions-intensity due to dependency on coal and inefficient

use of energy

LTMS: Process and research

• LTMS is a Cabinet-mandated process for identifying scenarios for mitigation of climate change

• Robust and broadly supported results achieved through technical methodology and extensive stakeholder involvement

Two Scenarios presented by the SBT

frame the choices for South Africa

The Gap

Two Scenarios: Growth without Constraints and Required by

Science

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Required by Science

Current Dev Path

Growth without Constraints

THE GAP

Gap: difference between where emissions might go and where they need to go

(GWC – RBS, emissions in 2050)Gap is 1300 Mt CO2-eq in 2050

More than three times 2003 annual emissions

2050

Four Strategic Options

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Required by Science

Growth without Constraints

Start Now

Use the MarketScale Up

Reach for the Goal

Start Now is a combination ofaggressive energy efficiency+27% nuclear and 27% renewable energy generationby 2050

Scale Up is a combination ofStart Now + extension of energy generation to50% nuclear and 50% renewable by 2050

Use the Market is as analternative instrument to Scale Up; it applies a carbon tax (starting from R100(slowing emissions growth); R250 (stabilising emissions) to R750 (absolute reductions 2040ff) plus incentives

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-R 34

Industrial efficiency

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-R 1,131

Passenger modal shift

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R 52

Renewables

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R 18

Nuclear

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-R 269

Improved vehicle efficiency

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-R 34

Industrial efficiency

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R 20

Nuclear, extended

Renewables, extended

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R 92

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R 54

Synfuels CCS 23 Mt

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R 607

Electric vehicles in GWC grid

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Escalating CO2 tax

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R 125

Subsidy for renewables

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R 697

Biofuel subsidy

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-R 208

SWH subsidy

1. New technology2. Identify resources3. People-oriented measures4. Transition to a low carbon economy

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With the conclusion of the technical work, the LTMS moved into a “high-level” process.

LTMS way forward

14

Theme 1: GHG emission reductions and limits (Cont.)

Peak

Decline

Plateau

PROGRESS TO DATE

• The 2009 Climate Change Policy Summit formally initiated the policy development process

• Relatively slow progress with limited sectoral inputs in 2009

• The 15th UNFCCC COP, Copenhagen

• 17 May 2010 National Climate Change Response Policy Development Round Table

THE MAY 2010 BACKGROUND INFORMATION DOCUMENT (BID)

• 1 Purpose of the document• 2 Introduction• 3 South Africa’s Climate Record and Trends• 4 The International Climate Negotiations and South Africa’s

Expectations – 4.1 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC)– 4.2 Current status of negotiations– 4.3 Key issues under discussions/ negotiations– 4.4 Prognosis of what is achievable

• 5 The impact of climate change on South Africa and potential adaptive responses

– 5.1 Water - 5.1.1 Impacts; 5.1.2 Potential Adaptive Responses

– 5.2 Agriculture– 5.3 Forestry– 5.4 Terrestrial Biodiversity and Ecosystems– 5.5 Oceans and Coasts– 5.6 Human Health– 5.7 Rural Livelihoods– 5.8 Urban Environments– 5.9 Risk Prevention, Disaster Management and Insurance– 5.10 Economic impact of adaptation– 5.11 Adaptation and Impacts Conclusion

• 6 Sectors Impacted by Responses to Climate Change – Response Measures and the South African Economy

– 6.1 The effect of response measures to climate change on South Africa’s economy and trade study

• 7 South Africa’s GHG emission profile• 8 The Energy Sector and Climate Change

– 8.1 Renewable Energy– 8.2 Energy Efficiency– 8.3 The Clean Development Mechanism

• 9 Land Use, Land Use Change, Forestry and Agriculture

• 10 Mitigation in the Industrial Sector

• 11 Transport

• 12 Economic Instruments and Measures to Address Climate Change

• 12.1 Climate relevant environmental taxes

• 12.2 Climate change and economic and fiscal instruments – the way forward

• 13 Science, Technology and Innovation

• 13.1 Carbon Capture and Storage

• 14 Building a National Consensus On South Africa’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Objectives

• 14.1 The LTMS

• 14.2 The Copenhagen Accord and South Africa’s Listing - 14.2.1 Methodology: Explaining the numbers in the Copenhagen listing; 14.2.2 List of NAMAs

• 14.3 Investments plans for NAMAs

• 15 Policy Considerations, Policy Debates and Potential Policy Approaches And Actions

• 15.1 Science and Climate Information

• 15.2 The International Climate Negotiations and The UNFCCC - 15.2.1 Implications of a climate change architecture on National Action

• 15.3 Climate Change Adaptation

• 15.4 Climate Change Mitigation

• 15.5 Climate Change Finance and the Use of Economic Instruments

• 15.6 Alignment of Government Policies and Actions

• 16 Glossary of Terms and Acronyms

• 11 References

Policy elementsBasic Background

Information

THE COMPILATION OF THE DRAFT GREEN PAPER

• Section 1 – Preamble: A 1-2 page encapsulation of the core climate change issues and, through this, the justification for a national policy

• Section 2 – The Objective: A succinct, clear and unambiguous description of the objective (desired outcome) of South Africa’s climate change response

WHY? – This section answers

the question “Why do we need a

climate change response policy?”

WHAT? – This section answers

the question “What is the desired

outcome of the policy?”

THE COMPILATION OF THE DRAFT GREEN PAPER (Cont.)

• Section 3 – Principles: A concise list of the key principles guiding the proposed responses to climate change

• Section 4 – Policy Directives: This is the meat of the policy which is divided into key impacted and/or affected (economic) sectors arranged in alphabetical order. The sectors are specifically chosen so as not to align with national department portfolios.

HOW? – These sections

answer the question “How do we achieve

the desired outcome of the

policy?”

THE COMPILATION OF THE DRAFT GREEN PAPER (Cont.)

• Section 4 – Policy Directives (Cont.): For each sector there is: – a brief (5 line) introductory paragraph describing the

sector’s climate change relevance; – (max) 5 concise bullet points on the sector’s impact on

CC (mitigation) and/or CC’s impact on the sector (adaptation) and/or broader socio-economic / socio-political CC implications for the sector including opportunities;

– text along the lines of “In response to these climate change challenges for the sector, South Africa will…”;

– no more than 5 (for now) numbered “directives”, i.e. dense, concise descriptions of what we will do as a nation in meeting “the objective”.

WHY? – The first 2 sub-sections answer

the question “Why is a climate change

response required for this sector?”

HOW? – The last 2 sub-sections answer the question “How is the sector going to respond to climate

change?”

THE COMPILATION OF THE DRAFT GREEN PAPER (Cont.)

• Section 4 – Policy Directives (Cont.): Sectors include:

• Agriculture

• Biodiversity (Terrestrial and Marine)

• Building and Construction

• Commercial Forestry

• Commercial and Retail

• Disaster Management

• Education

• Energy

• Financial

• Fisheries

• Health

• Human Settlements

• Manufacturing

• Mining and Mineral Resources

• Tourism

• Transport

• Waste

• Water

THE COMPILATION OF THE DRAFT GREEN PAPER (Cont.)

• Section 5 – Roles and Responsibilities: provides a brief overview of who should be doing what in respect of the “policy directives”.

• Section 6 – Institutional Framework for Coordination: provides a brief overview of the structures responsible for ensuring a coordinated, consistent, aligned, cohesive, coherent and integrated approach to our climate change response.

HOW? – This section

answers the question “How

do we coordinate and align sectoral responses?”

WHO? – This section

answers the question “Who does what?”

THE COMPILATION OF THE DRAFT GREEN PAPER (Cont.)

• Section 7 – Monitoring, Evaluation and Review: provides guidance on how progress in meeting the objective and implementing the directives will be measured, reported and verified and, from this, how the policy will be reviewed to ensure its continued relevance and efficacy.

HOW? – This section

answers the question “How do we measure progress and

efficacy?”TARGETS AND INDICATORS – This section

will also provide specific targets and/or indicators against which progress and efficacy

will be measured

A REMINDER – AREAS OF POLICY DIVERGENCE

• The nature of the country’s energy mix, the meaning of ‘cleaner energy’, the transparency of integrated energy planning and optimal institutional arrangements. In particular, our approach to coal based electricity, nuclear roll-out and the feasibility of renewable energy technologies to address base load demand were hotly debated.

• Transparency in the decision-making process was stressed by most participants, with several calling for an independent review of the Eskom new build programme in the light of climate change considerations.

These 2 “areas of

divergence” are being addressed

through DoE’s 2nd Integrated

Resource Plan for

Electricity (IRP2)

development process

A REMINDER – AREAS OF POLICY DIVERGENCE (Cont.)

• On economic instruments, most participants felt that taxes, emissions trading, incentives and subsidies could play a role. Some felt that a double dividend (both GHG emission reductions and socio-economic benefits) could be achieved by recycling the revenues of a carbon tax or auctioning allowances for domestic GHG emissions trading, while others cautioned about the potential impacts of increased taxes in the current financial context, as well as concerns about ear-marking of revenues. Some participants proposed a pilot phase for domestic emissions trading, which could be voluntary initially and develop into a mandatory cap-and-trade system.

This “area of divergence”

will be addressed

through Treasury’s, soon to be published, discussion

document on this subject

Forward to a sustainable

energy future

THANK YOU FOR

YOUR KIND ATTENTION

SETTING THE GHG EMISSION REDUCTION OBJECTIVES

• Building a National Consensus On South Africa’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Objectives

SOUTH AFRICA’S GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSION SCENARIOS AND REDUCTION OBJECTIVES

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July 2008 Policy Directions

December 2009 International Undertaking

All “reduction” undertakings predicated on international finance and technology transfer