climate change science panel - incze

8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Incze

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Preparing for Climate Change Impacts

on the Northwest Atlantic Marine Ecosystem

Hosted by

University of Maine School of Law

and

Gulf of Maine Research Institute

26-27 April 2007

Portland, ME


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Why Were Here/What were Doing

Societal Relevance

Everyone Participates

Panels provide a necessary (minimal) degree of background (90 mins)

Dealing with uncertainty as we try to develop intelligent and flexible

approaches to public policy (should P0.05?)

Develop active connections among our disciplines and as individuals ~

research and public service

Follow-ups


3/18

Marine Panel:

Lew InczeClimate Change Background

Andy Pershing GoM Pelagic Ecosystems

Kevin Friedland Fisheries Populations


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6/18

From H.H. Lamb (1995)Climate, History and the Modern World

1 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900

Year

15

12

9

6

3

Gld./100 kg

France

Italy

England

Holland


7/18

Compiled by R.S. Bradley and J.A. Eddy based on J.T. Houghton et al., Climate Change: The IPCC Assessment, Cambridge University

Press, Cambridge, 1990 and published in EarthQuest, vo. 1, 1991. Courtesy of Thomas Crowley,

Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record

Thousands of years BP)

Little Ice Age~1650-1850 AD

Holocene Temperature Maximum

Tempera

ture

(C)R

elative

toPresen

t

Last Major

Glaciation(~100,000 yrs)

Medieval Warm Period

~800-1300 AD
http://gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/winter96/article1-fig2.htmlhttp://gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/winter96/article1-fig2.html


8/18

Atmosp

heric

CO2(ppmv

)

Average

Glob

alTemp.

(C)

Phanerozoic(majority of macroscopic organisms)

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

22

17

12

540 mya 250 mya 65 mya 1.5 mya


9/18

ice cap during

Late Ordovician


10/18

Eccentricity of the Earths elliptical orbit

Wobble 1.5 in the Earths

axis of rotation relative to theorbital plane

Hemispheric differences in ratio of land:ocean

Distribution of continental masses, heating/cooling and air mass/winds,

ocean circulation, transport of heat and moisture

Reflectivity (clouds, ice caps, volcanic dust)

Greenhouse gases (water vapor, CO2, methane)

Uplift and erosion: ocean volume and biogeochemical effects

Variations in solar output

Preces

sionofth

eequi

noxes


11/18

Eccentricity of the Earths elliptical orbit

Wobble 1.5 in the Earths

axis of rotation relative to theorbital plane

Hemispheric differences in ratio of land:ocean

Distribution of continental masses, heating/cooling and air mass/winds,

ocean circulation, transport of heat and moisture

Reflectivity (clouds, ice caps, volcanic dust)

Greenhouse gases (water vapor, CO2, methane)

Uplift and erosion: ocean volume and biogeochemical effects

Variations in solar output

Preces

sionofth

eequi

noxes


12/18

IPCC SRES emissions scenarios

HIGHER

A1FI

LOWER

B1

End-of-

century

emissions

range from

1x to 5x1990 levels


13/18

Temperature

HadCM3

Projected Change in AnnualTemperature for 2071-2100

relative to 1961-1990


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Annual SST

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

degC BBH

Prince 5

Comparison of Annual mean SST at Boothbay Harbor and Prince 5, 1924-2000.

BBH at 43.84 N, 69.64 W; P5 at 44.947 N, 66.812 W

n=32, BBH=1.28 * P5, r2 = 0.72

Warm, moist

Dry, cold


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05 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 04

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Boothbay Harbor Monthly SST Anomaly (C) 1905 2004

Anomaly = deviation from 20th century mean, 1905-1999

Year: 1905 - 2004

Mont

h


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17/18

Available for download at:

http://www.climatechoices.org

UCS NECIA releaseJune 2007
http://www.climatechoices.org/http://www.climatechoices.org/


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climate change science panel - incze

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