"climate change, sea level rise and sustainable communities: defining the challenge and the...
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"Climate Change, Sea Level Rise and Sustainable Communities: Defining the Challenge and the Opportunities" presentation by Sacha Spector, Scenic Hudson from the 4/13/12 Columbia-Greene Revitalizing Hudson Riverfronts forum.TRANSCRIPT
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REVITALIZING HUDSON RIVERFRONTSIllustrated Conservation & Development Strategies for Creating Healthy, Prosperous Communities
This document was prepared with technical and financial assistance from the New York State Department of State
Opportunities in an Era of Global Climate Change
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Revitalizing Hudson RiverfrontsOpportunity in an Era of Climate Change
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what’s happening now
3-strategy roadmap
co-benefits of action
The Opportunity of a Lifetime
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Some claim that much of the measured global
warming is due to weather stations positioned near air
conditioners and car parks. We know this isn’t true for
several reasons. We can compare temperatures from
well-placed weather stations to the poorly-sited
weather stations. Both well-placed and poorly-sited
sites show the same amount of warming.
Another way to check thermometer measurements is
to compare them to satellite data. Satellite
measurements show a similar rate of global
warming. This is confirmation that thermometers are
giving us an accurate picture.
28
29
More evidence of the reality of global warming
Human Fingerprint #4 Nights warming faster than days
An increased greenhouse effect means nights
should warm faster than days. During the day, the
sun warms the Earth’s surface. At nighttime, the
surface cools by radiating its heat out to space.
Greenhouse gases slow down this cooling process.
If global warming was caused by the sun, we would
expect the warming trend to be greatest in daytime.
Instead, what we see is the number of warm nights
increasing faster than the number of warm days.6
As well as the compelling temperature record, we
have a large body of observations in many different
systems that are consistent with a warming world. Ice
sheets are melting, losing billions of tonnes of ice
each year. Sea levels are rising at an accelerating
rate. Species are migrating toward the poles and
glaciers are retreating (threatening water supplies for
many millions of people).
To gain a proper understanding of climate, we need to
look at all the evidence. What we see are many
independent observations all pointing to the same
conclusion - global warming is happening.
30
31
32,33
Long-term variation in the number of warm days (red) & warm
nights (blue) per year. Warm is defined as the top 10%.6
Air Temperature Near Surface (troposphere)
Indicators of a Warming World
Snow Cover
Ocean Heat Content
Temperature Over Land
Humidity
Parmesan & Yohe 2003 , NOAA32 34
Sea Surface Temperature
Sea Ice
Glaciers
Sea LevelSpring coming earlier
Species migrating poleward and upward
Tree-lines shifting poleward and upward
Temperature Over Oceans
5
Ice Sheets
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
2
4
6Warm Nights
Warm Days
Varia
tion
inN
um
ber
ofW
arm
Days/N
ights
Year
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source: National Center for Atmospheric Researchhttp://www2.ucar.edu/news/1036/record-high-temperatures-far-outpace-record-lows-across-us
Indicators of a Warming World
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Northeast annual avg. temp up 1.4°F since 1970
New York winter temperatures almost 5oF warmer than 30 years ago.
Observed Changes in New York
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Later frost in fall
Earlier plant germination and blooms
Earlier arrival of migratory birds
Timing of lake ice formation and melting
Changes in species ranges
Changes in precipitation
Observed Changes in New York
1990 2006
zone change+2+1no change-1-2
1990 USDA Hardiness Zones vs. 2006 Arborday.org Hardiness Zones
differences reflect warmer climate
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• More precipitation (slightly)
• More rain in winter• Increasing extreme
storms (heavy rain in a short period of time)
• Summers warmer, with drier soils and periodic drought
• Summer low streamflow period will be longer
Observed Changes in New York
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Sea Level Rise on the Hudson
Sea level is 1’ higher than 100 years ago
Rate of sea level rise is accelerating
United States, the northwestern Gulf Coast and the Mid Atlantic states are witnessing greater erosion rates, federal and private insurance claims, and coastal maintenance costs.
At the same time, the world’s most productive habitats–coastal wetlands, estuaries, and shallow water beds–are increasingly stressed by inundation, intrusion of saltwater to previously brackish or fresh waters, and changes in storm surge exposure. Supremely sensitive to the water levels and salinity, even moderately altered conditions in estuarine and coastal areas will lead to losses of these habitats along with the ecosystem services they provide: food, flood protection, water quality, recreation, and many others.
The Hudson: A Laboratory for AdaptationBuilding consensus around balanced solutions to this massive, yet incrementally-developing, threat promises to be one of the most complex social and environmental challenges of this century. On the one hand is the imperative to protect existing infrastructure and property, which will generate tremendous pressure to harden, raise, or re-engineer shorelines regardless of cost and efficacy. On the other hand is the imperative to facilitate the persistence of the coastal natural resources so that they continue to provide ecological services that sustain people, nature and human endeavor. The optimal balance will require locally-specific tactics that respond to the realities at the water’s edge, and regional strategies that coordinate efforts within a big picture, long time-horizon framework.
Few places in the world are a better living laboratory for exploring the full range of sea level rise adaptation options than the Hudson River Estuary. Home to nearly 100 municipalities and over 12 million people, the Hudson’s 160 miles of estuarine river passes through an incredible gradient of conditions – from the rural farming waterfront communities and rare freshwater tidal forests in the north, to one of the world’s most densely populated urban centers at the salty, marine outlet to the Atlantic.
Sea level rise (SLR) presents the most immediate global climate impact to the Hudson River Estuary. Across much of the estuary, sea level has risen at about one foot per century (2.7mm/year), a rate greater than the global average (see figure 2). The best climate data available indicates that we can expect water levels on the Hudson River – from the Battery in Manhattan to the Federal Dam at Troy - to rise by up to five feet by the end of this century, and perhaps that much again during the next century. (see figure 3 on following page)
Within this projected inundation zone lie historic riverfront communities, the seeds of a sustainable revitalization corridor, billions of dollars of critical public infrastructure, thousands of private landholdings, and over 13,000 acres of globally important tidal wetland and vegetated shallow water habitats. These critical habitats are home to many of the region’s most iconic species including bald eagles and migratory fish like sturgeon, shad and striped bass; they also provide key ecosystem services such as water quality maintenance and flood control to people along the entire estuary.
Figure 2. Sea level change since 1856, observed by tidal gauge at the Battery, Manhattan, NYC.
0
100
200
300
400
500
1856 1881 1906 1931 1956 1981 2006
Hudson River Sea Level 1856-2009(in mm, observed at Manhattan)
average = 2.79mm/yr
source: NOAA
Sea Level Rise
by 2080Lower emissions:
8-23 inches
Higher emissions:
37-50 inches
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2020 1155 additional acres
SAVING THE LAND THAT MATTERS MOST Hudson River Sea Level Rise Projections
2050 2641 additional acres
2080 4647 additional acres
inundation zone > 5000 acres by
2080 Sea Level Rise on the Hudson
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The Hudson Valley: A Climate Crossroads
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160+ miles of estuarine riverglobally rare habitats85% of NY’s vertebrate speciesglobal hotspots
RamsHorn Marsh
What’s at Stake?
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82 communities>250,000 people$Bs of infrastructurehistoric & cultural centers
What’s at Stake?
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underpinnings of local & regional economiesWhat’s at Stake?
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Sustainable Waterfront Communities
securityresilience
justiceviable economies
healthy environments
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Save taxpayer dollars
Spur local economies and create millions of green jobs
Improve public health
Reduce risks to people and property
Enhance national security
Create a legacy of leadership and conservation
...and avert catastrophe.
Opportunity
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How Do We Plan Toward the Best of Both Worlds?
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100” 200” 300” 400” 500”
Wetland
SAV
Diverse Housing Types,Sizes and Affordability
Plan by Raymond Curran
Parking Garage andOn-Street Parking
Alley and ParkingBehind Buildings
Local Street Along Greenways and Parks
Renovated Existing Buildings
Special Public Spaces
Viewing Piers, MarinasTour Boat Facilities
Bioretention Areas
Parking Lot Screening
Restored Historic Building
100-YEAR FLOODPLAIN
Restored Tributary
Preserved Ecologically Sensitive Area
100-FOOT SETBACKIn Parks, Greenways, andNatural Areas
70-FOOT SETBACKIn Built Riverfront Areas
44
4
4
4
4
4
44
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4 4
4
4
Mixed-Use Buildings Public Buildings Residential Buildings
Resilient Riverfront
Communities
Protect Tidal Wetlands and Floodplains
Soften and Restore
Shorelines
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REVITALIZING HUDSON RIVERFRONTSIllustrated Conservation & Development Strategies for Creating Healthy, Prosperous Communities
This document was prepared with technical and financial assistance from the New York State Department of State
www.revitalizinghudonsriverfronts.org
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100” 200” 300” 400” 500”
Wetland
SAV
Diverse Housing Types,Sizes and Affordability
Plan by Raymond Curran
Parking Garage andOn-Street Parking
Alley and ParkingBehind Buildings
Local Street Along Greenways and Parks
Renovated Existing Buildings
Special Public Spaces
Viewing Piers, MarinasTour Boat Facilities
Bioretention Areas
Parking Lot Screening
Restored Historic Building
100-YEAR FLOODPLAIN
Restored Tributary
Preserved Ecologically Sensitive Area
100-FOOT SETBACKIn Parks, Greenways, andNatural Areas
70-FOOT SETBACKIn Built Riverfront Areas
44
4
4
4
4
4
44
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4
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4 4
4
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Mixed-Use Buildings Public Buildings Residential Buildings
• Identify built and natural assets at risk
• Steer development away from shorelines and floodplains
• Site new infrastructure out of the 500+ year floodplain
• New structures elevated or resilient
• Employ softer, greener shoreline treatments where appropriate
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Four Basic Typologies
Linear RiverfrontPark
Natural Area
Community Park
Built Riverfront
IVERFRONT IDOR
One of the most positive, forward-looking steps waterfront communities can take is to establish a riverfront greenway corridor along their entire shoreline. The greenway corridor serves as continuous, open space along the riverfront that provides public access, recreation, and habitat protection. Wherever conditions allow, this mostly vegetated corridor should extend inland to the 100-year floodplain boundary OR 100 feet from the mean high-water line, whichever is GREATER.
Riverfront greenway corridor uses can be thought of as falling into four
: The most urban form of the riverfront greenway corridor that functions as a direct extension of the adjacent downtown area or municipal center. It provides public access to the riverfront and should include lively, mixed-use, pedestrian-friendly public destinations drawing upon local cultural, economic, and environmental assets.
Linear Riverfront Parks: Long, narrow public areas within the riverfront greenway corridor that offer uses such as walking, fishing,
The Riverfront Greenway
This mostly vegetated corridor should extend inland to the 100-year floodplain boundary OR 100 feet from the mean high-water line, whichever is GREATER.
100 / 100 rule
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A Gradient of Riverfront Communities
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Sea-Level Habitats Ramshorn Marshphoto: Jeffery Anzevino
Legend
Projected River in 2020
Projected River in 2050
Projected River in 2080
RIVER INUNDATION µ0 0.5 10.25
Miles
Current River
Identify Resources, Risks, and
Vulnerability:Cornwall’s Waterfront
on Sea Level Rise
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Inunda&on Zone
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Inunda&on Zone
Tidal Wetland
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Inunda&on Zone
Tidal WetlandHardened ShorelineNatural Shoreline^^^
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Inunda&on Zone
Tidal WetlandHardened ShorelineNatural Shoreline^^^Inundated Infrastructure ROW
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Inunda&on Zone
Tidal WetlandHardened ShorelineNatural Shoreline^^^Inundated Infrastructure ROW
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III
III. CONNECT PEOPLE TO THE RIVER
The Hudson River is the natural asset that makes the waterfront such an attractive place to live, work, and play. Providing public access to, along, and into the river should be a priority of all shoreline development. In built riverfront areas, this can take the form of plazas for public festivals, concerts, and farmers’ markets; esplanades and boardwalks for walking; and piers and marinas. Community parks, buffers, and natural areas also are essential for connecting people to the river. It is important to link riverfront areas to each other as well as to significant inland destinations like downtown shopping districts, parks, residential areas, and tourist attractions. These connections can be fostered through a system of sidewalks, trails, bike paths, roads, public transit, trolleys, ferries, or water taxis supported by attractive signage, landscape furniture, and sufficient lighting. By connecting people to the Hudson, riverfront development can stimulate investment in our riverfront municipalities while enhancing quality of life.
The NYSDOS Coastal Management Program and LWRP call for protecting, maintaining, and increasing the level and types of access to the waterfront and water-related recreation resources. Accomplishing this requires balancing the following factors: the amount and types of waterfront access desired by the public, the capacity of infrastructure to provide access to the waterfront, and environmental constraints to providing access.
When located adjacent to the shore, development should provide for water-related recreation whenever such use is compatible with both reasonably anticipated demand for such activities and the development’s primary purpose. Funding for projects that connect people to the river, such as parks, boat launches, and docks may be provided by the NYSDOS; NYSDEC; NYS Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation; the Hudson River Valley Greenway; and the Hudson River Foundation.
Soften and Restore Shorelines
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Dead stout stake to secure geotextile fabric
Eroded streambankInstall additional vegetation like live stakes, rooted seedlings, etc.
Compacted soil about 1-foot thick
Live cuttings
Geotextile fabric
High tide
Streambed
Low tide
2 to 3 ft.
Hei
ght v
arie
s: 8
-feet
max
.
* Not to scale
3 to 4 feet
NOTE: Rooted/leafed condition of living plant material does not represent time of installation.
Rock fill
Dead stout stake used to secure geotextile fabric
Live stakes
Geotextile fabric recommended
Streambed
Low tide High tide
Riprap
Esopus Meadows Watertrail Preserve, Esopus
Foundry Dock Park, Cold Spring
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* Not to scale
2 to 3 feet
Low tide
Streambed
Existing vegetation, plantings or soil bioengineering systems
High tide
Gabion baskets
Geotextile fabric
Erosion controlfabric
Compacted fill material
Live branch cuttings(1/2 to 1 inch diameter)
NOTE: Rooted/leafed condition of living plant material does not represent time of installation.
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Protect Tidal and Supratidal Habitats Ramshorn Marsh
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Restore Tidal and Supratidal Habitats Hudson South Bay
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Tidal Wetlands Non-Tidal Wetlands NHP Occurrences
Legend
Current
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Tidal Wetlands Non-Tidal Wetlands NHP Occurrences
Legend
2020
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Tidal Wetlands Non-Tidal Wetlands NHP Occurrences
Legend
2050
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Tidal Wetlands Non-Tidal Wetlands NHP Occurrences
Legend
2080
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A Roadmap to Resilience