climate change & spokane: impacts and a way forward

7/27/2019 Climate Change & Spokane: Impacts and a Way Forward

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2014

Blaine Stum

City of Spokane

5/12/2014

Climate Change & Spokane:

Impacts and a Way Forward


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Introduction

We are living in the world of climate change today. With concentrations of greenhouse gasses steadily

climbing, temperatures and sea levels on the rise and extreme weather events occurring more

frequently and with greater spontaneity, it is no wonder that scientists have been sounding the alarm

for over two decades now.1

While there is a debate in the fringes of society as to whether climatechange is man-made or even happening at all, scientists from a wide variety of fields reached a

consensus years ago that climate change is happening and that is it primarily being caused by human

activity. In recent years, new data and better modeling have served to solidify this consensus even

more; to the point where they have a reached a confidence level of 95%.2

This paper is meant to educate policy makers on the potential impacts of climate change so we as a

community can better prepare ourselves for what lies ahead. There has been a wealth of studies done

on climate change impacts in our region since the adoption of our Sustainability Action Plan.3Our state

has also taken even more substantive action since our action plan was released. Washington State has

been noted by the federal government as being ahead of the curve in studying ways that we could adapt

to the reality of climate change. Leaders at the state level knew that the business as usual approach

would be too costly for our state and local economies to endure. The first action steps were taken by

former Governor Christine Gregoire, who tasked state level agencies to develop action plans and

incorporate climate change impacts into their planning processes. More recently, Governor Jay Inslee

has taken a leadership role in pushing our state to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate

impacts. On April 29, 2014, Governor Inslee signed Executive Order 14-04, which outlines a series of

steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in our state.4These steps include:

- The formation of a Carbon Emission Reduction Task Force that will provide recommendations onthe design and implementation of carbon emission limits. The task force has already met twice

and will be meeting four more times before making final recommendations on November 17,

2014.

- Negotiations between the Governors Legislative Affairs and Policy Office (LAPO) and utilitycompanies to reduce (and in the future eliminate) the use of electrical power derived from coal.

1Many scientists such as Charles Keeling, Gilbert Plass and Roger Revelle were actually raising the alarm as early as

the 1950s and 1960s. And contrary to some narratives, there was never an abundance of literature from the

scientific community predicting global cooling in the 1970s. A systemic analysis of peer reviewed literature from

that time done by Thomas Peterson of the NOAA National Climactic Data Center in 2008 reveals that there were

only 7 peer reviewed papers in a 14 year period (1965-1979) that predicted cooling of the earth. The vast majority

of the literature, even back then, was predicting global warming. For more information see: Peterson, et al. 2008.

The Myth of the Global Cooling Scientific Conesus.Journal of Climate. American Meteorological Society.2Number via the latest IPCC Report. Some people have used this number to suggest that 95% confidence levels

means that the science behind it is not solid or that a true consensus has not been reached. But few scientific

theories, with the possible exception of newtons theory of gravity, ever attain 100% certainty. To put the 95%

number in context, 95% is equivalent to our current level of certainty that the universe is 13.8 billion years old and

that cigarettes are deadly.3The amount of studies done on local impacts since 2009 has increased dramatically thanks to the Climate Impact

Group at the University of Washington.4http://www.governor.wa.gov/office/execorders/documents/14-04.pdf.
http://www.governor.wa.gov/office/execorders/documents/14-04.pdfhttp://www.governor.wa.gov/office/execorders/documents/14-04.pdfhttp://www.governor.wa.gov/office/execorders/documents/14-04.pdfhttp://www.governor.wa.gov/office/execorders/documents/14-04.pdf


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- Directing the Department of Transportation to develop an action to increase electric car use inthe state, as well as developing long range transportation plans for multi-modal transportation.

- Department of Commerce is set to work with WSU and other stakeholders in helping fosterresearch and adoption of clean, renewable energy sources.

- Implement a new energy efficiency program (via Department of Commerce).- The Department of Enterprise Services will monitor progress on government operations and

suggest new tactics and strategies to reduce emissions and increase energy efficiency.

Summary of Recommendations

- The City of Spokane should share information on government efforts to adapt to or mitigateclimate change impacts more frequently. Currently, that information is little known in the

community.

- The City of Spokane should continue efforts to create more efficient government operations asthey relate to CO2 emissions.

- The City of Spokane should continue to work on curbing excessive water use both by the cityand by citizens in the community.

- The Mayor and City Council should create more incentives for smart growth development tooccur within our city limits and work with our partners in the county to standardize these

incentives.

- The Mayor and City Council should set aside more funding for public transit and bicycle andpedestrian infrastructure; as well as support community groups whose goal is to increase use of

alternative modes of transportation.

- The City should work with Spokane Regional Health District to better study and prepare forhealth impacts of climate change in our community.

- The City of Spokane should continue its work on urban farming and the Food Policy Council inaddressing issues such as food deserts.

The Science behind the Climate

While our knowledge of the climate5and how it works has expanded greatly in recent decades, it should

be noted that climate science itself dates back to at least the 1820s. This was when physicist Jo seph

Fourier, after producing calculations that made it clear that the earth should be much cooler than it is

given its distance from the sun, suggested that the earth atmosphere actually insulated heat by some

means. His hypothesis was later expanded upon and became known as the greenhouse effect, whichwas confirmed by scientific studies by the likes John Tyndall as early as the 1860s.6

5Climate is defined as the description of long-term patterns of weather in a particular area.

6Tyndall, John. 1861. The Bakerian Lecture: On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and

on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption and Conduction. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal

Society of London, 151: 1-36.


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The greenhouse effect is simple: solar radiation from the sun enters our atmosphere. Some of that

radiation is absorbed by the earth, some of it passes through our atmosphere and goes out to space but

some of it is also absorbed and re-emitted by greenhouse gas molecules. The more greenhouse gas

molecules there are in the atmosphere, the more solar radiation that gets re-emitted into our

atmosphere, thus increasing the heat in our atmosphere. Tyndall studies were the earliest to discover

that certain greenhouse gasses are better at holding heat than others, the top two being water vapor

and carbon dioxide.7The chart below summarizes the impact of four different gases to the greenhouse

effect:

For much of history, the primary driver of climate change has not been greenhouse gases though, it has

been the sun. One major study looking at almost a millennium of sun-related data (reconstructions of

sunspot series and cosmic ray flux) and reconstructions of mean surface temperature in the Northern

Hemisphere found that solar activity tracked very closely with changes in the climate.8This does not

explain the current predicament we face however. Several studies have found that solar activity has

been decreasing as early as 1960; all the while global temperatures have continued to climb 9.

7While there have been some claims that CO2 has a short residence time in our climate, these claims are not

provided within the proper context. Based on a thorough review of literature and independent analysis, the IPCC

estimates that the warming potential for CO2 could be as long as 500 years. (See: IPCC 4th

Assessment Report,

Section 2.10)8Usoskin, et al. 2005. Solar activity, cosmic rays, and Earths temperature: A millennium-scale comparison.

Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, A10102.9See: Lockwood, Mike. 2008. Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature: An

analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise. Proceedings of the Royal Society. Lockwood,

Mike & Frolich, Claus. 2007. Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean

surface temperature. Proceedings of the Royal Society. Foster, Grant & Rahmstorf, Stefan. 2011. Global

temperature evolution 1979-2010. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 6. Lean, Judith & Rind, David. 2008. How

natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006. Geophysical

Research Letters, Vol. 35.


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The chart above displays solar irradiance, or power of

electromagnetic radiation, produced by the sun, in contrast to

surface temperatures over a 120 year timeframe. As it shows, whilethe two measurements moved relatively in syncin the late 19thandearly 20

thcentury, there hasbeen asignificant departure of the two

since 1960.

The single biggest factor contributing to

climate change is the release of significant

amounts of greenhouse gasses from human

activities. While land (such as forested land)

and oceans have traditionally acted as a

sponge for greenhouse gases, the industrial

activities of our society have overwhelmed

their capacity to store these gases. As such, we

have seen massive increases in atmospheric

CO2 (the single largest greenhouse gas from

human activity).10This can be seen in ice core

data and recent CO2 measurements. Ice core

data show that our current levels of

atmospheric CO2, which have just crested over

400 parts per million, are higher than anything

on record for over 800,000 years.11The closest measurement for atmospheric CO2 to that threshold is

almost 300,000 years old, and it barely reached 300 parts million. All of this carbon dioxide, along with

the myriad other greenhouse gases coming from human activities, has led to our global climate getting

warmer.

The Currently Changing Climate

We tend to think of climate change as a problem of the future. Popular publications and studies assess

impacts a century from now. This is a laudatory goal to be sure, but it ignores the extent to which our

10The amounts we are releasing in the atmosphere are anything but trivial. In 2012, it is estimated that global

carbon dioxide emissions reached over 34 billion tons. See: Oliver JGJ, Janssens-Maenhout G and Peters

JAHW (2012), Trends in global CO2 emissions; 2012 Report, The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental

Assessment Agency; Ispra: Joint Research Centre.11

Data for this can be found at:http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/ice_core_co2.html.

Ice core data is one of the many ways that

paleoclimatologists can reconstruct CO2

concentrations and climate patterns in the

distant pass. The above graph reconstructs

CO2 concentrations over an 800,000 yearperiod. It clearly shows that during that time

frame, concentrations never reached the

heights they have now.
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/ice_core_co2.htmlhttp://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/ice_core_co2.htmlhttp://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/ice_core_co2.htmlhttp://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/ice_core_co2.html


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climate is changing right now. Our focus here is

not a global model however, it is regional and

local. Recently expanded datasets can give us

an idea of what the climate has been like within

the past 100 years, and thus how it has

changed since we had the ability to track

surface temperature.

According to perhaps the most comprehensive

study on temperature changes in the Pacific

Northwest (PNW) during the 20thcentury, we

have seen a temperature increase of 1.5F

between 1920 and 2003.12Stations close to or

located in Spokane have seen increases

anywhere from 1.38F to 1.45F from 1895 to

2010.13A map on the next page showstemperature changes across weather stations

all over the PNW. What should be noted about

these temperature increases is that they are

somewhat greater than the global average

trend over the 20thcentury.

While this change in our climate has impacted

us in a myriad ways, it has had the most

profound impact on our winters.14For instance,

it has been found that precipitation during coolseasons (such as the winter) has become more

variable from year to year in an analysis of precipitation trends over the past several decades, where it

used to be relatively steady.15Climate change has also impacted the timing of peak runoff from

mountain snow packs. As shown in the photo on this page, the timing of spring snowmelt and the time it

takes to get from the beginning of rainfall to peak runoff (center of mass of annual flow) have both

shifted to earlier dates around the region.

Finally, studies have shown that April 1 snow water equivalents (the amount of water that is contained

within a snowpack on April 1) have declined at nearly all sites in the PNW that have been studied thus

12Mote, Phillip. 2003. Trends in Temperature and Precipitation in the Pacific Northwest during the Twentieth

Century. Northwest Science(77): 271-282.13

It should be noted that a small sampling of specific stations, such as the ones in Spokane, are not necessarily

reflective of broader trends happening regionally. This is why the study referenced above is so crucial, as they look

at stations all over the PNW.14

The study found that climate change has impacted our fall season the least.15

Hamlet, A.F. & D.P. Letternmaier. 2007. Effects of 20th

century warming and climate variability on flood risk in

the western U.S. Water Resources Research.


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far, with some sites in lower to mid-range elevations recording declines as high as 40% or more. 16This is

important due to its potential impact on native flora and fauna and our reliance on snow packs to

provide water to our aquifer in the spring and summer months as traditional snow packs melt.

What the Future Holds

Scientists are able to model impacts at a more precise location with a technique called downscale

modeling. In the simplest of terms, this simply means calibrating a climate model to gauge impacts on a

regional or local level rather than global. In recent years, scientists have expanded regional data

collection and fine-tuned downscale modeling techniques to the point that they can now produce

climate projections with much higher confidence levels than over a decade ago.

To give a glimpse into what the future holds, this paper will look at estimates produced by an analysis of

20 climate models and two greenhouse gas emission models done by Phillip Mote of the University of

Washington and Eric Salathe Jr. of Oregon State University ClimateResearch institute.17Their

exhaustive research shows that by the 2020s, temperatures in the Pacific Northwest are projected to

increase from current levels by 1.1F for a low emission scenario (meaning we take aggressive action to

curb emissions from human activity), 2.0F for a middle of the road scenario (a scenario where we take

action, but less of it and at a slower pace) and 3.3F in a high scenario (a scenario where we do little to

curb emissions). This represents far faster increases in average temperatures than what we experienced

16Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, M. Clark, & D.P. Letternmaier. 2005. Declining mountain snowpack in western North

America, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society86 (1): 39-49.17

Mote, P.W. & Slathe, Eric. 2010. Future Climate in the Pacific Northwest. Climate Change102 (1-2): 29-50.


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in the 20thCentury.18And the increases only get more pronounced as we move further out. The chart

below summarizes their findings:

Years/Scenario Temperature

2020s Low +1.1F

2020s Average +2.0F

2020s High +3.3F

2040s Low +1.5F

2040s Average +3.2F

2040s High +5.2F

2080s Low +2.8F

2080s Average +5.3F

2080s High +9.7F

Their research also sought to quantify the impacts of climate change on precipitation trends in the PNW,

but the results were less pronounced than what they show for temperatures. According to the paper,areas of the PNW are likely to see an increase in annual precipitation as it warms, particularly in the

winter months.19However, these increases are projected to be as small as 1-12% in the 2020s, 2-12% in

the 2040s and 4-20% in the 2080s from current averages.20

Specific Impacts of Future Climate Change In Our Area

Heat events:One of the most well studied impacts of future climate change is the occurrence of what

are called extreme heat events. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, an extreme

heat event is defined as periods of summertime weather that are substantially hotter and/or more

humid than typical for a given location at that time of year.21These events can last for several days or

longer. The effects of these events are particularly acute in urban areas, where concrete and asphalt

hold heat and taller buildings block cool airflows from the street level. From 2000-2009, extreme heat

events were the leading cause of weather related deaths in the United States. 22In our area of the PNW,

the overall risk of non-traumatic deaths during an extreme heat even varies from place to place. In

18An average estimate of warming per decade according to the figures above suggests we will see warming at a

rate of .5F in the PNW through the mid-21st

century. This represents a rate that is three times the increase of

temperatures per decade that were observed in the 20th

century.19

This may seem positive at first glance, but a significant amount of research suggests that this precipitation will

fall as rain as we begin to see the winter months get warmer. Due to our water resources being tied to natural

outflows, in particular snow packs in the mountains that melt in the spring, the less snow we see will cause added

stress to our water resources.20

A majority of the models used in the paper also show that we will get less precipitation (on average) in summer

months than we currently do; a worrying development for water resources in our usually dry summer climate.21

U.S. EPA. 2006. Excessive Heat Events Guidebook. EPA 430-B-06-005. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,

Washington, DC.22

NOAA. 2010. Natural Hazard Statistics: Weather Fatalities. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Available:http://www.weather.gov/om/hazstats.shtml.Accessed May 8, 2014.
http://www.weather.gov/om/hazstats.shtmlhttp://www.weather.gov/om/hazstats.shtmlhttp://www.weather.gov/om/hazstats.shtmlhttp://www.weather.gov/om/hazstats.shtml


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Spokane, risks are less pronounced currently than in Seattle, although the risks increase as the duration

of extreme heat events increases.23

One study done a few years ago sought to estimate just how much increased heat events in the future

will impact vulnerable populations and in particular whether we will see significantly increased deaths in

relation heat events.24

The study projects that that we can expect 3.2 heat events (lasting 2.6 days onaverage) in 2025 and 6.0 heat events (lasting 3.4 days on average) in 2085.25Climate change scenarios

used in the study project 12 to 31 excess deaths by non-traumatic causes for people aged 45 and above

in 2025, and 17 to 76 excess deaths in 2085 in the three county study areas for Eastern Washington (Tri-

Cities, Spokane and Yakima).26Spokane, Yakima and Tri-Cities have a projected increase that is far less

than Seattle due to the market penetration of indoor air conditioning in residential areas being much

higher in those counties than in Seattle.27All told, the increase in deaths related to heat events for the

three counties is not considered statistically significant.

Allergies & Asthma:Climate change can affect the quality of our air by speeding up the process through

which smog28is created.29In addition to this, rising carbon levels have been shown to induce more

pollination from plants, resulting in more allergens becoming airborne.30The increase in pollination is of

particular concern for those who suffer from allergic rhinitis (hay fever). In a comprehensive look at the

prevalence of allergic rhinitis in the United States from 1973-1996; the United States Environmental

Protection Agency found that the western region31of the United States consistently had the great

number of cases.32There is no micro level data on how the prevalence of allergic rhinitis affects the

economy and work productivity, but national level surveys suggest that the impact is substantial. A

study in which researchers surveyed over 8,000 employees found that allergic rhinitis had a bigger

impact on employee productivity than migraines, depression, arthritis, anxiety disorders, diabetes and

23Jackson, J.E., et al. 2010. Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks

due to heat events and air pollution. Climatic Change102 (1-2): 159-186.24

The study only looked at older cohorts, and thus does not give a full picture of the impact on extreme heat

events on our public health system. It is well known that children, in particular younger children, are also more

likely to suffer negative impacts from extreme heat events.25

Ibid, pg. 35926

Ibid, pg. 360.27

Estimates suggest that this will remain the case as well, with projections for 2020 suggesting that Seattle will

have an air conditioning market penetration in residential areas of around 10% as compared to 41% for Spokane,

68% for the Tri-Cities and 30% for Yakima.28Smog is defined as a type of air pollution that is derived via vehicle emissions and industrial fumes that react in

sunlight with secondary pollutants to form photochemical smog, which looks like a sort of fog hanging over an

area.29

http://www.nrdc.org/health/climate/airpollution.asp30

Lewis, et al. 2003. Cities as harbringers of climate change: Common ragweed, urbanization, public health. The

Journal of allergy and clinical immunology 111 (2): 290-295.31

The report defined the western region as the west coast as well as the Pacific Northwest.32

United States Environmental Protection Agency. 2008. Review of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change

on Aeroallergens and Their Associated Effects. 3-7
http://www.nrdc.org/health/climate/airpollution.asphttp://www.nrdc.org/health/climate/airpollution.asphttp://www.nrdc.org/health/climate/airpollution.asphttp://www.nrdc.org/health/climate/airpollution.asp


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several other medical conditions.33The World Allergy Organization White Book estimatesthe total costs

of allergic rhinitis to be as high as $20.9 billion.34

Worsening air quality will also negatively impact those who suffer asthma. The Center for Disease

Control ranks the incidence of asthma in Washington State as one of the highest in the nation. According

to the Washington State Department of Health, 508,934 adults and 106,000 children have asthma in thestate.35According to the Comprehensive Hospital Abstract Reporting System (CHARS), hospital charges

for asthma totaled $73 million in 2010.36In that year 57,000 adults with asthma visited an emergency

room at least once due to asthma related conditions.3722% of Washington adults with asthma missed

work or could not carry out normal daily functions, resulting in a total of 4.3 million person-days of lost

productivity.38Increases in pollen and potential reductions in air quality could increase the economic

burden of conditions such as allergic rhinitis and asthma.

Snowpack and Water Resources:We are a region that, even more so than others, has been shaped by

and depends so much on water resources from natural climate processes. According to the Energy

Information Association, Washington State was the number one producer of hydro-electric power in the

United States in 2013 and accounted for 29% of all hydroelectric energy in the country.39More than

100,000 port jobs in the region rely on river flows and provide easy access to transport exports. 40

Perhaps most importantly, natural outflows represent the main source of water for Washingtons robust

agricultural economy.41As the analysis in the previous chapter hints at, the future of climate change is

going to re-shape our water resources in ways that we would be wise to do our best to prepare for. The

following research that is summarized takes a more granular, specific look at the potential impacts.

According to several academic studies, the Spokane area is currently best classified as a rain-snow mix

for watersheds, due in part to our elevation. What this means is that our water resources come from a

mix of rain and snow.42Despite this mixed precipitation, our area most crucial resource for water

remains the mountain snow pack. Analysis of the past several decades shows that we dont have to wa it

for climate change to get worse to see impacts on snow packs. As a result of current climate change

trends, stream flows have already been impacted. In a study by Luce and Holden (2009), they found that

33Lamb, CE, et al. 2006. Economic Impact of workplace productivity losses due to allergic rhinitis compared with

select medical conditions in the United States from an employer perspective. Current Medical Research and

Opinion, 22 (6): 1203-1210.34

Member Society Reports in: Pawankar R, Canonica GW, Holgate ST, and Lockey RF, editors. WAO White Book on

Allergy (World Allergy Organization), 201135

See:http://www.doh.wa.gov/DataandStatisticalReports/DiseasesandChronicConditions/AsthmaData.aspx.36

CHATS, 2010 Full Year Hospital Census and Charges by Diagnosis Related Group (DRG).37Washington State Department of Health. 2013. The Burden of Asthma in Washington State. Pg. 338

Ibid. pg. 339

See:http://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=WA#tabs-440

Northwest River Partners, River Transportation Supports Billions in Commerce. May, 2012. Accessed: 4/25/14.41

The Washington State Department of Ecology estimates that irrigated agriculture represents 90% of water

consumption in the State. Our agricultural economy creates over $9 billion worth of food, with crops and

commodities such as potatoes, wheat and milk being among the largest exports in our state. Statistic via:

http://agr.wa.gov/AgInWA/docs/2012WaAgValuesUSDAPressRelease.pdf.42

Other categories for water sheds are rain dominant and snow dominant.
http://www.doh.wa.gov/DataandStatisticalReports/DiseasesandChronicConditions/AsthmaData.aspxhttp://www.doh.wa.gov/DataandStatisticalReports/DiseasesandChronicConditions/AsthmaData.aspxhttp://www.doh.wa.gov/DataandStatisticalReports/DiseasesandChronicConditions/AsthmaData.aspxhttp://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=WA#tabs-4http://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=WA#tabs-4http://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=WA#tabs-4http://agr.wa.gov/AgInWA/docs/2012WaAgValuesUSDAPressRelease.pdfhttp://agr.wa.gov/AgInWA/docs/2012WaAgValuesUSDAPressRelease.pdfhttp://agr.wa.gov/AgInWA/docs/2012WaAgValuesUSDAPressRelease.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=WA#tabs-4http://www.doh.wa.gov/DataandStatisticalReports/DiseasesandChronicConditions/AsthmaData.aspx


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mean annual flow at gauges in Spokane dropped 20-30% from 1948 to 2006.43Given that much of the

Pacific Northwest relies on natural flows for water storage instead of man-made reservoirs, these shifts

have the potential to add even more stress to a water system that is already experiencing significant

pressures.

Hydropower:With respect to hydropower, studies suggest that we could see less energy being hydropower being produced. A study by Hamlet, et al. (2010) investigated the impacts from climate change on

hydropower production in Washington State. What they found is that while winter power production

increases modestly over the two emissions scenarios (only a 4% increase in winter power production by

2040), the summer months offset the projected winter increase (they project a 10% decrease in summer

power production by 2020), resulting in a net loss.44Coupled with rising temperatures and more

extreme heat events that will result in increased demand in the summer months due to air conditioning

and refrigeration, our electricity infrastructure will be put under more stress as a result of climate

change.45

Agriculture:Like other states in the northwest, Washington State relies heavily on agricultural

production to supply food and maintain a dynamic economy. The key to efficient agricultural production

in any region is the ability to provide adequate water for crops. It is estimated that the agricultural

sector in Washington State provides jobs to 160,000 people in the state and constitutes 13% of the total

state economy.46Locally, the same dynamic is true. According to the last agricultural census, the market

value of crop sales and livestock sales for Spokane County was just over $117 million.47The USDA

estimates that there is 626,329 acres of farmland in the county48and that the average market value of

land and buildings per farm in Spokane County is $588,545.

Due to our location and elevation, studies of the impact of climate change on future crop yields in

Eastern Washington are decidedly mixed. Crop yields for crops such as winter wheat are actually

projected to increase anywhere from 2% to 8% by 2020 due to the increase in frost-free days.49The

same is not true for all crops however. Projections for potatoes are a negative, with losses of up to 9%

by 2020 (and losses as high as 22% by 2080). A slight decrease in crop yields is also expected for

43Luce, C.H. & Holden, Z.A. 2009. Declining annual streamflow distributions in the Pacific Northwest United

States, 1948-2006. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36.44

Hamlet, et al. 2010. Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest

and Washington State. Climatic Change102 (1-2): 103-128.45

Unfortunately, there is little in the way of reliable forecasts of what this means economically. The Northwest

Power and Conservation Council estimated that by 2020 we could either see a net gain of $777 million or a net loss

of $223 million in hydropower sales. But their model did not take into account increased air conditioning market

penetration, and as such they admit that the gains are likely overestimated and the losses underestimated.46

http://www.mrsc.org/subjects/planning/aglands/economic.aspx47

See:http://agr.wa.gov/AgInWa/docs/126-CropProductionMap12-13.pdf.This number does not include the food

processing industry, which accounts for another $566 million in sales in Spokane County. See:

http://agr.wa.gov/AgInWa/docs/127-FoodProcessingMap12-13.pdf.48

Over half of the 626,329 acres is cropland.49

Stolke, et al. 2010. Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Eastern Washington Agriculture. Climate Change,

102 (1-2): 77-102. The study did not take into account the increase in extreme high temperature events which may

have a negative impact on crop yields for winter wheat.
http://www.mrsc.org/subjects/planning/aglands/economic.aspxhttp://www.mrsc.org/subjects/planning/aglands/economic.aspxhttp://www.mrsc.org/subjects/planning/aglands/economic.aspxhttp://agr.wa.gov/AgInWa/docs/126-CropProductionMap12-13.pdfhttp://agr.wa.gov/AgInWa/docs/126-CropProductionMap12-13.pdfhttp://agr.wa.gov/AgInWa/docs/126-CropProductionMap12-13.pdfhttp://agr.wa.gov/AgInWa/docs/127-FoodProcessingMap12-13.pdfhttp://agr.wa.gov/AgInWa/docs/127-FoodProcessingMap12-13.pdfhttp://agr.wa.gov/AgInWa/docs/127-FoodProcessingMap12-13.pdfhttp://agr.wa.gov/AgInWa/docs/126-CropProductionMap12-13.pdfhttp://www.mrsc.org/subjects/planning/aglands/economic.aspx


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apples.50 The reason for the difference in projections between crops has to do with how the crops are

grown and the time at which they are in season.

Climate change wont just impact growing seasons though. It will also have an impact on diseases,

weeds and insects that have the ability to devastate crop yields. Various models forecast that the

amount of days that cherries and grapes will be at high risk for disease (such as powdery mildew withrespects to cherries) will increase. The same study found that due to earlier warming during the winter

and longer seasonal warming in the spring and summer, codling moths51will emerge earlier and

experience what is known as a complete third generation egg hatch. 52The impact of this complete third

generation egg hatch would mean that apple farmers would either need to apply one or two additional

sprays of pesticides or keep the pesticides on site in dispensers; both scenarios would result in increased

cost to the farmers and consumers.

Wine Industry:Another industry within the agricultural sector that will see a shift in the coming years is

the wine industry. According to the Washington State Wine Commission, the state is second largest

producer of premium wine in the United States, with over 800 wineries and more than 350 wine grape

growers.53The total economic impact of this industry on the state is $8.6 billion. In Spokane, local

wineries receive the vast majority of their grapes from Yakima Valley and Columbia Valley.54One study

looked at the potential impact of climate change on this industry, specifically in the key states of

California, Oregon and Washington. Honing in on Columbia Valley, the researchers found that varietals

produced in the region could see a 30% reduction in suitable land area by 2040 under a conservative

scenario in which average global temperature only increases by 1.8F.55This confirms other research

which suggests that the west side of Washington State is poised to become a more hospitable growing

region than much of Eastern Washington (particularly in the summer).56How this will impact Spokane

budding wine industry remains to be seen.

A couple of facts need to be discussed with respect to the analysis on agriculture to put it in a proper

context. First and foremost, a huge chunk of the crop production in Washington State is exported to

other states or countries. The Department of Agriculture estimates that the state exported over $6.1

50Even the projected 1% decrease in apple yields for the state could mean an economic loss of as much as $22

million from current levels however. This number was calculated by multiplying the value of sales of apples in

Washington State in 2012 (which was approximately $2.2 billion) by .01.51

Coddling moths deposit their larva inside apples, causing two types of damages to apple crops: the sting (entry

places on the apple surface where the moths deposit their larva) and deep entries (where the larva bore to the

core of the apple and eat the seed cavity).52Currently, codling moths in Washington State experience two generations a year. In warm years, partial third

generations have been observed. But complete third generations are extremely rare events in the entirety of the

Pacific Northwest.53

The total area of Washington that is used for wine grapes is estimated to be 43,889 acres. See:

http://washingtonwine.org/_assets/managed/files/16197_Washington%20State%20AVA%20Map.pdf.54

http://www.spokanewineries.net/about/55

Diffenbaugh, et al. 2011. Climate adaptation wedges: a case study of premium wine in the western United

States. Environmental Research Letters (6): 11 pgs. 56

http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2013/11/08/napa-on-the-sound-climate-change.html?page=all.
http://washingtonwine.org/_assets/managed/files/16197_Washington%20State%20AVA%20Map.pdfhttp://washingtonwine.org/_assets/managed/files/16197_Washington%20State%20AVA%20Map.pdfhttp://www.spokanewineries.net/about/http://www.spokanewineries.net/about/http://www.spokanewineries.net/about/http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2013/11/08/napa-on-the-sound-climate-change.html?page=allhttp://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2013/11/08/napa-on-the-sound-climate-change.html?page=allhttp://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2013/11/08/napa-on-the-sound-climate-change.html?page=allhttp://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2013/11/08/napa-on-the-sound-climate-change.html?page=allhttp://www.spokanewineries.net/about/http://washingtonwine.org/_assets/managed/files/16197_Washington%20State%20AVA%20Map.pdf


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billion in agricultural goods in 2010 alone, two thirds of which were exported to Asia. 57In Spokane, a

study Ken Meter found that consumers in the Spokane region purchase $1.7 billion worth of food, $1.5

billion of which comes from outside of the region58. Second, the most productive region in Washington

when it comes to agriculture (the Yakima Valley) is projected to face increased risk of water shortages

that could negatively impact crop yields, meaning that other areas will need to increase productivity in

order to make up for potential losses.59Third, future climate change is projected to have a more

detrimental impact on tropical zones than temperate zones, which currently produce a hefty supply of

the worlds food.60Lastly, population increases, especially in less developed nations, will put increased

stress on food systems around the globe. What all of this means is that even in cases where there are

projected increases in crop yields, such as with winter wheat, the net effect on our regional and global

food system could still be negative.

Livestock:According to the United States Department of Agriculture, total sales for livestock (including

products) in Spokane County were estimated at $16.89 million in 2012. 61Over $3 million of that was

derived from dairy products (specifically milk). Dairy cows, like many animals, are more sensitive to heat

than humans.62

Due to this, heat stress brought on by high temperatures can result in a decrease in milkproduction.63Future increases in temperatures as well as increases in extreme heat events in the

summer are likely to have a negative impact on milk production in Spokane by the mid-20thcentury.64

Farmers can mitigate heat impacts on their cows by ramping up cooling systems, but this means an

increased cost of both beef and dairy related products for consumers.

57See:http://agr.wa.gov/marketing/international/statistics.aspx.

58Meter, Ken. 2013. Spokane Region (Washington): Local Farm & Food Economy. Crossroads Resource Center.

59A study by Vano et al. looked at the simulated impact of climate change on reservoirs in the Yakima River Basin,

which is an area that produces most of the agriculture in our state. Using 20 different climate models, the risk of

more water shortages is projected to increase from a historical baseline of 14% of the years between 1940 and

2005 to 27% in the 2020s. By 2080, the projection is a staggering 68% without any adaptations. 60

There is little in the way of systemic reviews on what the tropics currently supply in the grand scheme of our

food system. However, many crops are climate sensitive and can only be grown in tropical regions. World

production of tropical fruits alone, such as bananas, mangos, pineapples, papaya and avocadoes, was estimated at

82.2 million tons in 2009. And integral crops to the US food supply, such as sugar cane, are grown primarily in

tropic zones outside of the country (Brazil, which falls entirely within the tropics, produces 25% of the worlds

sugar cane alone; producing 39.5 million tons in 2010-2011).61USDA, National Agriculture Statistics Service, Data on Spokane County. Accessed May 15, 2014.62

http://cdrf.org/2013/09/12/heat-stress-in-dairy-cows/.63

Heat stress causes dairy cows to change behaviors, including eating less. But the biggest reason dairy cows

decrease milk production during hot time periods has to do with the amount of energy expanded and the change

in physiologic processes when cows are subjected to high temperatures. For more information, see: West, J.W.

2003. Effects of Heat-Stress on Production in Dairy Cattle.Journal of Dairy Science(86): 2131-2144.64

One major study by Bauman, et al. (2013) shows milk production in Yakima Valley decreasing by 7kg per cow for

daily milk production. Given the similarities between Yakima and Spokane in climate during the summer months, a

similar effect is likely in our county.
http://agr.wa.gov/marketing/international/statistics.aspxhttp://agr.wa.gov/marketing/international/statistics.aspxhttp://agr.wa.gov/marketing/international/statistics.aspxhttp://cdrf.org/2013/09/12/heat-stress-in-dairy-cows/http://cdrf.org/2013/09/12/heat-stress-in-dairy-cows/http://cdrf.org/2013/09/12/heat-stress-in-dairy-cows/http://cdrf.org/2013/09/12/heat-stress-in-dairy-cows/http://agr.wa.gov/marketing/international/statistics.aspx


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Transportation Systems:The precise impacts on

our transportation infrastructure in the PNW are

less studied than many of the other areas in this

report, but given the trends discussed earlier, the

impact will likely be mixed. During winter months,

precipitation will be more apt to fall as rain, leading

to decreased costs for snow and ice removal (on

both an economic and environmental level).

However, the increase of extreme weather events

will increase the risk of flooding and potential

increases in freeze-thaw cycles could increase the

risk of more cracks and potholes developing in our

roads. In addition to that, higher temperatures and

increased extreme heat events will have several

impacts on our roadways. Extreme heat can cause

softening of asphalt, leading to increased risk of

buckling, heat bumps and vehicle ruts.

This is not good news for a County which has a

significant backlog of needed maintenance and

repair projects for already deteriorating roads.65In 2006, the city estimated that the maintenance and

repair backlog was $3 million annually. A presentation by Mark Serbousek of the Streets Department in

2012 projected if the city maintains current funding levels for road maintenance, the cost of the backlog

could increase to over $400 million within 10 years.66 Current estimates provided in a Link Spokane

pamphlet released by the Mayors office show a backlog $150 million total.67For state operated facilities

within the county, it is estimated that WSDOT has a maintenance backlog of $500,000 to $750,000 perbiennium with an additional $900,000 per biennium as a result of additional unfunded maintenance

costs for new facilities. 68The conditions of our roads already contribute to increased vehicle

maintenance costs. In 2013, a national transportation research group estimated that road conditions in

the Spokane urban area cost drivers $619 a year.69Any deterioration of road conditions could cause that

number to go up.

The heat will also have an impact on our bridges, many of which are in substandard conditions already,

by causing greater thermal expansion at bridge joints. According to the National Bridge Inventory

65Counties and cities across the United States are facing similar problems; even with major investments such as

bonds and levies. These investments simply have not been able to keep up with the maintenance and repair needs.

An example of this in our own state is in Seattle. The city has a deferred maintenance backlog of $1.8 billion (as of

2010). Seattle Department of Transportation noted in one presentation that despite a nine year, $365 million levy

(Bridging the Gap), the backlog continues to grow.66

Serbousek, Mark. 2012. Deferred Maintenance Cost.67

http://www.spokaneplanning.org/docs/Long_Range/ROW/Link_Spokane_Inlander_Insert_Brochure_1-9-14.pdf.68

Spokane Regional Transportation Council. 2013. Horizon 2040. Ch. 2, pg. 31.69

TRIP. October 3, 2013. Bumpy Roads Ahead: Americas Roughest Rides and Strategies to Make our Roads

Smoother.
http://www.spokaneplanning.org/docs/Long_Range/ROW/Link_Spokane_Inlander_Insert_Brochure_1-9-14.pdfhttp://www.spokaneplanning.org/docs/Long_Range/ROW/Link_Spokane_Inlander_Insert_Brochure_1-9-14.pdfhttp://www.spokaneplanning.org/docs/Long_Range/ROW/Link_Spokane_Inlander_Insert_Brochure_1-9-14.pdfhttp://www.spokaneplanning.org/docs/Long_Range/ROW/Link_Spokane_Inlander_Insert_Brochure_1-9-14.pdf


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Database, of the 33 bridges in the city limits 19 are either functionally obsolete or structurally deficient.

16 out of those 19 bridges are classified as major arterials (meaning they take a heavy flow of traffic

through major parts of the city).

The same is true for our railways, which according to SRTC account for 43% of all tonnage and 20% of

the value of commodity flows in the area.70Much of the railway system in our state is old and

deteriorating. Without mitigation or adaptation strategies, increases in temperatures could lead to

greater risk of tracks being distorted or damaged. This was confirmed by a study done by the

Washington State Department of Transportation in 2011.71That study shows several state rail lines in

eastern Washington, including one that goes directly into Spokane County, are projected to have high

vulnerability to future climate change due to the increase in extreme weather events.

Regional ecosystem:Washington State has a large forest. Over half of the state is forested land.72While

a big portion of Spokane County is a savanna primarily used for agriculture, there is also a significant

70Ibid, pg. 6.

71WSDOT, Climate Impacts Vulnerability Assessment, November 2011.

72Campbell, Sally; W addell, Karen; Gray, Andrew, tech. eds. 2010. Washingtons forest resources, 20022006: five-

year Forest Inventory and Analysis report. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-800. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of

Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 189 p.

This graph, via the Spokane Regional Transportation Council, shows projected road maintenance

costs for Spokane County, along with forecasted revenues dedicated to road maintenance.


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section of our county that is a forest area.73The natural beauty of the forest, along with the kinds of

recreation it provides to our area, is essential to our long term economic vitality. Unfortunately, climate

change impacts are projected to have negative consequences on our forested lands.

By the 2060s, one study projects that at least one species of pine tree could be lost in most of the

forested land in Eastern Washington.74

The reason for this is a combination of factors brought on byclimate change: less water in forest areas, increased forest fires due to limited precipitation in the

summer months, increased risk of plant related diseases such as Swiss needle cast spreading and the

short term increase of mountain pine beetles. With respects to forest fires, the area of land burned by

fires in Washington State is projected to increase by .3 million acres by the 2020s under an average

greenhouse gas emission scenario. If we continue on our current trajectory however, the increase in

area burned by fires could be as high as 76% to 310% by 2070-2099. This would significantly impact the

amount of carbon that our forests store, exacerbating climate change even further.

Forest fires also have a significant economic impact. According to the Washington State Department of

Ecology, state fire prevention/suppression efforts could more than double under a scenario where there

is warming of 3F.76This means we could go from spending $26 million a year on fire prevention,

suppression and preparedness to spending over $70 million a year. And this analysis does not even take

into indirect impacts of forest fires, which one study put at 4-5 times more than the direct costs.

Another activity which our regional and local ecosystem supports is winter activities. Two of the most

often visited ski resorts in the state, 49 Degrees North and Mt. Spokane, are relatively close to the city. A

study done by Eastern Washington University on the economic impact of ski resorts in the area found

that in Inland Northwest Ski Association (INSA) counties, resorts increase output $22.94 million,

73To get a better idea of how much forest legacy land there is in the county see here:

http://www.dnr.wa.gov/Publications/amp_fl_map_spoklinc3.pdf.74

Rehfeldt, et al. 2006. Empirical Analysis of plant-climate relationships in the western United States.

International Journal of Plant Sciences. 167 (6): 1123-1150.75

Littell, J. S., E. E. Oneil, D. McKenzie, J. A. Hicke, J. A. Lutz, R. A. Norheim, and M. M. Elsner, 2010: Forest

ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA. Climatic Change, 102, 129-158.76

Washington State Department of Ecology. 2006. Impacts of climate change on Washingtons economy: A

preliminary assessment of risks and opportunities. 117 pgs.

This map, from a recently released

study in the United States, shows the

potential increases in area burned by

fires under a climate scenario where

there is 2.2F increase in average

global temperatures.75
http://www.dnr.wa.gov/Publications/amp_fl_map_spoklinc3.pdfhttp://www.dnr.wa.gov/Publications/amp_fl_map_spoklinc3.pdfhttp://www.dnr.wa.gov/Publications/amp_fl_map_spoklinc3.pdf


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personal income by $8.9 million and business taxes by $1.28 million.77With warmer weather becoming

more frequent in the future, this will have a significant impact on the time the resorts open as well as

the length of the ski season. One study by Nolin and Daly (2006) estimates that the probability of warm

winters at Mt. Spokane will increase from a historical baseline of 27% for the years 1971-2000 to 50% of

the years in the future with a 1.8F warming scenario.78

Business as Usual: The Economic Costs

One of the primary complaints about policies that are either meant to mitigate the impacts of climate

change, or at the very least help us adapt to the impacts, is that they are too economically costly. This

argument may seem attractive at first glance, but it leaves a lot to be desired. Perhaps the most glaring

aspect of the argument is that it fails to take into consideration what the economic impact will be if we

do notact or do not act enough to avert the worst climate change scenarios. Climate change has the

potential to impact myriad different activities we rely on for economic growth, so any discussion on the

economics of the situation needs to take into account the costs of inaction or little action. One study

that specifically looked at the State of Washington and the economic costs of taking little to no actioncan give us an idea what the costs might be.

Water Storage: As noted earlier in this report, climate change will put our water supplies at increased

risk of running low due to decreased snow packs and hotter summers. The result, according to this

study, is a net loss in value for 17 major watersheds in the state of $7.1 billion by 2020 and a loss of $18

billion 2080 from a current value of $30.9 billion.79

Forest harvest and wildfires:We have already discussed climate change impacts on forest fires, but this

study has a slightly different analysis than what we looked at earlier in this study. It suggests that fire

suppression related costs could go from a historic baseline of $12 million to $18 million by 2020 and as

high as $82 million by 2080. The impact of fires on harvest for timber isnt quantified in this study;however they do look at the potential impacts of beetle infestation. They look at four different models

summarized below in terms of the impact by 2020.80

Scenario Total Lost Value (Land harvest value)

No change from historic pattern $120 million

Reduced beetle infestation due to range shift $102 million

Increased beetle infestation due to drought $177.6 million

Combination range shift and drought $151 million

77Buting, et al. 2005. The Economic Impact of Ski Areas Represented by the Inland Northwest Ski Association.

Eastern Washington University, Institute for Public Policy and Economic Analysis.78

Nolin, Anne & Daly, Christopher. 2006. Mapping At Risk Snow in the Pacific Northwest.Journal of

Hydrometeorology7: 1164-1171. This does not account for indirect economic benefits. The organization has since

changed its name to Ski the Northwest Rockies.79

Adams, et al. 2010.Additional Analysis of the Potential Economic Costs to the State of Washington of a Business-

As-Usual Approach to Climate Change: Lost Snowpack Water Storage and Bark Beetle Impacts. Climate Leadership

Institute, University of Oregon.80

Ibid. Pgs 18-21


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In 2001, the city joined International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) Cities for Climate

Protection.87And in 2007, Mayor Hession signed the U.S. Conference of Mayors Climate Protection

Agreement, where cities aim to meet or exceed the Kyoto Protocol target of a 7% reduction in

greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2012.88The culmination of efforts in the City was the

adoption of the Sustainability Action Plan by the city council in 2009. The report was the work of a Task

Force assembled by Mayor Verner after Spokane received a $75,000 to study and plan for climate

change impacts.89The Task Force received 800 individual contributions from the public and worked with

multiple partners in the community to finalize the report.

Within the report, there are several broad goals and strategies that were supposed to be the roadmap

for future efforts in the city. The overall goals contained in the report are as follows90:

1. Climate mitigation: attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG).2. Climate adaptation: adjust practices to deal with the effects of climate change.3. Energy security: increase energy alternatives to reduce dependence on oil.

The goals were to be accomplished through eight strategies that the Task Force recommended. These

strategies are summarized as follows91:

1. Improve continuously (set goals, monitor progress, share information, etc).2. Emphasize renewable energy (specific goal that the city reach a target of 100% by 2030).3. Promote clean mobility (non-motorized transportation).4. Enable optimal land use (encouraging compact development and preservation of eco-system).5. Conserve water everywhere.6. Maximize energy efficiency.7. Optimize operating practices (cleaner, leaner city fleet and local vendors).8. Prepare through planning.

While the goals and strategies contained in the report are all laudable and should be encouraged, the

fact remains that the city still has much to do to reach the goals outlined in the plan. Below is a

discussion of some of the important strategies that were recommended and what progress has occurred

since council voted to support the plan.

With respects to the continuous improvement strategy,the city has not done enough to make

pertinent information widely available. The last update released by the city on climate protection

recommendations at the dedicated website for Environmental Programs was in 2011.92Agendas and

87http://www.gura.com/111306/ICLEI_USA_Members-9064.pdf.88

http://www.greenspokane.org/wp-

content/uploads/2010/11/US_Mayors_Climate_Protection_Agreement_Hession_endorsement020107.pdf.89

New Priorities Foundation Grant. Dated March 24, 2008.90

City of Spokane Mayors Task Force on Sustainability. March 2009. Sustainability Action Plan: Addressing Climate

Mitigation, Climate Adaptation, And Energy Security, pg. 10.91

City of Spokane Mayors Task Force onSustainability. March 2009. Sustainability Action Plan: Addressing Climate

Mitigation, Climate Adaptation, And Energy Security, pg. 9.92

Website at:http://www.greenspokane.org/.
http://www.gura.com/111306/ICLEI_USA_Members-9064.pdfhttp://www.gura.com/111306/ICLEI_USA_Members-9064.pdfhttp://www.gura.com/111306/ICLEI_USA_Members-9064.pdfhttp://www.greenspokane.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/US_Mayors_Climate_Protection_Agreement_Hession_endorsement020107.pdfhttp://www.greenspokane.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/US_Mayors_Climate_Protection_Agreement_Hession_endorsement020107.pdfhttp://www.greenspokane.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/US_Mayors_Climate_Protection_Agreement_Hession_endorsement020107.pdfhttp://www.greenspokane.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/US_Mayors_Climate_Protection_Agreement_Hession_endorsement020107.pdfhttp://www.greenspokane.org/http://www.greenspokane.org/http://www.greenspokane.org/http://www.greenspokane.org/http://www.greenspokane.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/US_Mayors_Climate_Protection_Agreement_Hession_endorsement020107.pdfhttp://www.greenspokane.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/US_Mayors_Climate_Protection_Agreement_Hession_endorsement020107.pdfhttp://www.gura.com/111306/ICLEI_USA_Members-9064.pdf


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meeting minutes from the Green Team are sparse, with only three meetings being noted on the

website in 2013. The city should make an effort to advertise the website and more information about

continued progress.

In regards to encouraging alternative modes of transportation, the city has not fared well either.

WalkScore ranks us at 45 out of 100 on their walk score index.93

In the latest Benchmarking Report bythe Alliance for Biking and Walking, only 1.5% of workers survey cycled to work, and only 3.6% walked to

work.94Contrast this with ACS data from 2006, which estimated that 1.2% of workers cycled to work

and 3.4% walked to work.95This does not represent a statistically significant change. The Benchmarking

report also has quite the bleak picture when it comes to levels of funding for bicycle and pedestrian

infrastructure on the citys behalf. In 2013, the city only dedicated $13,000 of its general fund budget

toward bicycling and pedestrian infrastructure, and the city still does not have a spending target in place

for those important pieces of infrastructure. In the past year, we have also seen the city only dedicated

bicycle and pedestrian coordinator position eliminated.

According to WalkScore, Spokane has a transit score of only 36 out of 100.96The maps provided below

give a visual illustration of why our transit score is so low: the amount of land that our bus system can

cover in 30 minutes or less does not even account for half the city and some areas lack an adequate

number of routes/bus lines. A more robust transit system than we currently have would result in

positive environmental impacts97Local agencies such as SRTC have been working with state agencies on

environmental impacts of transportation policies, and in the Horizon 2040 report they note that they

will continue to track issues that relate to the reduction of petroleum usage, greater energy efficiency

and travel behavior to better serve the community.98Given the centrality of transportation to climate

change and greenhouse gas emissions, the city should take a leadership role in encouraging and

expanding public transit use and increase funding for bike-ped infrastructure.

93http://www.walkscore.com/WA/Spokane.

94Alliance for Biking and Walking. Bicycling and Walking in the United States: 2014 Benchmarking Report.

95Social Explorer Tables: ACS 2006 to 2010 (5 Year Estimates), U.S. Census Bureau.

96Explanation of Transit Score Methodology: To calculate the raw transit score, they take SL(Service Level)

multiplied byMW(Mode WeightHeavy/Light Rail weighted 2X, Ferry/Cable/Car/Other is 1.5X and bus is 1X)

multiplied bydistance penalty. The distance penalty is done similar to the Walk Score in that they use a decay

scale to award points based on distance as measured by time to certain amenities. To normalize the raw scores ona scale of 0 to 100, they use a logarithmic scale where the perfect score of 100 was calculated by averaging the

score of the center/downtown core of 5 major US Cities for which they have full transit data. (Chicago, Boston, San

Francisco, Portland, DC).97

According to a study by the Federal Transit Administration (Public Transportations Role in Responding to

Climate Change) the average CO2 emissions per passenger mile for single occupancy vehicles in the US is 0.964

pounds CO2/per passenger mile. They estimate that Spokane Transit Authority emits only 0.315 pounds

CO/passenger mile.98

Spokane Regional Transportation Council. 2013. Horizon 2040. Appendix B, pg. 22.
http://www.walkscore.com/WA/Spokanehttp://www.walkscore.com/WA/Spokanehttp://www.walkscore.com/WA/Spokanehttp://www.walkscore.com/WA/Spokane


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Effective land use strategies are another area where the city has made some progress but still has plenty

of work to do. Since the issuance of the 2009 Sustainability Plan, there has been some positive

movement on this issue such as the development in Kendall Yards, continuing development in South

Perry and council support for neighborhood plans that emphasize efficient land use.

Recently, there has been a community wide conversation on sprawl in Spokane. As the debate unfolded

a report conducted by Smart Growth for America that looks at metropolitan areas across the countryand ranks how sprawled they are based on four different categories became used to suggest that sprawl

in Spokane is not as bad as critics suggest.99In the report, Spokane overall rank is 22ndout of 221 metro

areas when controlling for population. But a deeper look at our ranking shows we still have much to

improve upon. Our density score ranked 78thand activity centering score ranked 63rd. A sampling of

cities across the country shows that while Spokane does relatively well in terms of total land area and

population density100, the city can still do plenty more to increase its density.101

City Population Total Land Area Population Density

Montgomery, AL 201,332 156.19 sq. miles 1,270.75/sq. mile

Hialeah, FL 231,941 19.7 sq. miles 11,701/sq. mile

Boise, ID 212,303 80.05 sq. miles 2,675.2/sq. mile

99These four categories are: density/compactness, land use mix, activity centering and street accessibility.

100Population figures, land area and population density via the United States Census Bureau.

101The Washington State Office of Financial Management 2013 Data book ranks Spokane as the second most

populous city in the state, but 40th

in terms of population density. (pg. 222).

The map on the left, via WalkScore, shows how far someone could get from the downtown transitcenter to any place in the city in 30 minutes on a bus. The map on the right shows bus lines.


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An in depth analysis of the census tracts used in the report shows that the problem lies primarily in the

unincorporated county areas, which all rank substantially lower than tracts inside city limits on their

composite score.102This is

confirmed when looking

at the record for county

planning. Recently, they

made the decision to

expand the urban growth

areas outside of the city

limits well beyond what

we needed, and in the

process went against the

recommendations of their

own Planning Technical

Advisory Committee.103

The lack of compactness

wrought by these

decisions contributes

heavily to greenhouse gas

emissions.

A recent study done by

researchers at the

University of California

Berkeley actually found that suburban sprawl cancels out whatever benefits that are gleaned from high

urban density.104Another study that looked greenhouse gas emissions in Helsinki found that low-rise or

low density lifestyles contributed 14% more emissions than high-density areas.105Beyond studies

suggesting that sprawl disproportionately contributes to climate change, sprawled cities are also more

vulnerable to some of the impacts of climate change. A study in Environmental Health Perspectives

102Stum, Blaine. 2014. Spokane Sprawl Methodology White Paper. Paper done at the request of Councilmember

Jon Snyder.103

The Planning Technical Advisory Committee recommendations addressed to the Steering Committee of Elected

Officials on January 2012 called for the addition of four small areas in Moran Prairie, Pillar Rock, Ponderosa and

Southeast Valley which only amounted to 612 acres. The original expansion approved by the County

Commissioners consisted of 6,000 acres of residential and 1,000 of industrial/commercial land. Even after the state

joined a lawsuit against the County regarding the UGA, they scaled back to a smaller UGA expansion of around

4,000 acres.104

Jones, Christopher & Kammen, Daniel. 2014. Spatial Distribution of U.S. Household Carbon Footprints Reveals

Suburbanization Undermines Greenhouse Gas Benefits of Urban Population Density. Environmental Science &

Technology48 (2): 895-902.105

Ala-Mantila, Sanna, et al. 2013. Greenhouse gas Implications of Urban Sprawl in the Helsinki Metropolitan

Area. Sustainability5 (10): 4461-4478.

This chart is a visual representation of gallons pumped annually for the City

of Spokane Water Department. The black line is the linear trend line, which

shows a decrease of around 500,000 gallons since 2005.


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prepared to address climate change. Only 2% think the industry is fully prepared to address those

impacts.108

According to the last available Government Energy Report (2012), the city has made some strides with

respect to more efficient energy consumption and optimizing operations.109In fleet motor pool, there

has been dramatic 99% decrease in gas usage since 2005. Several other departments deserve specialmention as well. The solid waste department has seen a decrease of 24% in electricity use (although

solid waste fleet saw an increase in diesel gas usage from 2005), code enforcement saw a 32% decrease

in gasoline usage, City Hall has seen a 23% decrease and the street department saw a 40% decrease in

natural gas use. A more recent step that the city is preparing to take is the conversion of their solid

waste fleet from diesel fuels to compressed natural gas.110

Many departments also saw an increase, including the Police Department and Fire Department. And

according to the last update on climate protection recommendations,111the city did not achieve the

target reductions in commute trips, EPA energy star rating target and had yet to increase efficiency in

streets lights.112Other steps that have been taken by the City include installing energy efficient LED lights

on all red and green traffic control lights, replacing several pumps at four water stations in Spokane to

reduce consumption and a major project at City Hall to the building HVAC system. 113

There is one policy proposal that was not included in the action plan but should be singled out for

commendation: the recent adoption of urban agriculture regulations for the City of Spokane. Our

industrial food system contributes to greenhouse gases primarily via the transportation of food from

farm to consumer. The most oft cited figure is that it takes 1,500 miles for produce to get from the farm

to the dinner table,114but the actual numbers likely vary depending on the type of food. One study

108

American Water Works Association. 2014.AWWA State of the Water Industry Report. Pg. 3.109Spokane City Department of Environmental Programs. 2012. City Government Energy Report.Accessible here:

http://www.greenspokane.org/2013-2/.110

A 2010 report from the National Academy of Sciences titled Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences

of Energy Production and Use found that compressednatural gas (CNG) has lower CO2 exhaust emissions than

gasoline or diesel. However, the benefits vary depending on where the CNG comes from. If it is shipped into the

country as liquefied natural gas and then compressed, it only reduces the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG)

emissions by 5%. If domestic gas is used, they calculate it reduces the GHG life cycle by 15%. There is still a lot of

debate over the cumulative effects of CNG however. Several studies, including Proceedings of the National

Academy of Sciences (2013), Petron, et al. (2014), Santoro, et al. (2011) and Brandt, A.R. et al. (2014) have found

that the EPA consistently underestimates the amount of methane that leaks from shale deposits as a result of

fracking. A few other studies have also looked at methane emissions that occur as a result of combustion of the

CNG (Scott Wayne (2008) and Clean Air Task Force (2012)) and found that the total effect may be on par with that

of traditional fossil fuels. None of this should spell the end of natural gas usage so much as it should be a catalyst

for action to mitigate methane related leaks from fracking and use of CNG.111

Spokane City Department of Environmental Programs. 15, Feb. 2011. Status of Climate Protection

Recommendations.112

One of the big threads running through the recommendations is the inclusion of biofuel, namely ethanol, in the

use of vehicles for the city. In the appendix, this paper will describe why the adoption of biofuel targets is

misguided.113

City of Spokane. The Already Green List. Updated 5/22/14.114

http://chge.med.harvard.edu/topic/local-and-urban-agriculture.
http://www.greenspokane.org/2013-2/http://www.greenspokane.org/2013-2/http://chge.med.harvard.edu/topic/local-and-urban-agriculturehttp://chge.med.harvard.edu/topic/local-and-urban-agriculturehttp://chge.med.harvard.edu/topic/local-and-urban-agriculturehttp://chge.med.harvard.edu/topic/local-and-urban-agriculturehttp://www.greenspokane.org/2013-2/


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found that the average distance for food delivery is 1,020 miles, with a total supply chain distance of

4,200 miles. The study found that red meat has the highest delivery distance as well as the highest

supply chain distancedue to a number of factors including the delivery of the feed, transportation of the

animals and shipping of the meat products.115Enabling people to grow food for consumption close to

their residence (especially those may not have a yard or lot suitable for a garden on their own property),

sell food from their own gardens on site and raise animals will cut in to the greenhouse gas emissions

that are a result of our currently sprawled food system.

Unfortunately this information is not widely shared in the community so few people know what the city

is doing to become energy efficient. The city should continue to strive for increased energy efficiency in

its operations, and perhaps set new, stronger goals.

Conclusion

The city initially took the lead in establishing a plan to adapt and mitigate impacts of climate change, but

has since shown little progress in furthering those goals. As this report shows, the reality of climate

change is not just a problem for the future; it is a problem right now. The hope is that this report will re-

kindle the ambition of policy makers to address the risks we face due to our changing climate. We

cannot afford to take a wait and see approach any longer.

115Weber, Christopher & Matthews, Scott. 2008. Food Miles and the Relative Climate Impacts ofFood Choices in

the United States. Environmental Science Technology; 42, 3508-3513.


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Appendix

Item A: Environmental Impacts of Ethanol Use

When the subject of climate change first started becoming widespread, one of the first major

innovations many cities, states and community groups jumped on was the alternative fuel source known

as ethanol. Logically, it makes sense to find alternative fuel sources for transportation given that the

majority of greenhouse gas emissions come from fossil fuel use. And on an individual level, it is easy to

see that biofuel use could be beneficial. But over recent years, many problems have come to light with

biofuels that bring into question their usefulness in combating climate change on a large scale.

Perhaps the most drastic impact has been land use. In 2007, the federal government mandated that

refineries mix a certain percentage of corn based ethanol into gasoline. This mandate, along with the

rush of people to find environmentally friendly alternatives to gasoline, has caused millions of acres of

land to be converted for corn farming. Under Obama alone, five million acres of land that was set aside

for conversion in natural areas like Yellowstone have been lost to farms that are now producing corn.116

This conversion has detrimental effects on biodiversity (as does the fact that corn crops traditionally

require large amounts of fertilizer and pesticide per acre in order to get a decent harvest).

This has caused the latest IPCC Working Group to note in the latest report that: Biofuels have direct,

fuelcycle GHG emissions that are typically 3090% lower than those for gasoline or diesel fuels.

However, since for some biofuels indirect emissionsincluding from land use changecan lead to

greater total emissions than when using petroleum products, policy support needs to be considered on

a case by case basis.117

A recent study found that the net benefit from burning ethanol is significantly lower than the IPCC

estimates however. John DeCicco, an energy researcher at the University Michigan, found that CO2emissions from burning ethanol fuel are only 2% lower than petroleum, and biodiesel is actually 1%

greater than petroleum diesel.118

116http://www.wiscnews.com/bdc/news/local/article_5b4a9dcc-b3f5-5bc9-9ef5-16711709fae0.html.

117IPCC 2014, Chapter 8:http://report.mitigation2014.org/drafts/final-draft-postplenary/ipcc_wg3_ar5_final-

draft_postplenary_chapter8.pdf.118

DeCicco, John. 2013. Biofuels Carbon Balance: Doubts, Certainties and Implications. Climatic Change, 19 pgs.
http://www.wiscnews.com/bdc/news/local/article_5b4a9dcc-b3f5-5bc9-9ef5-16711709fae0.htmlhttp://www.wiscnews.com/bdc/news/local/article_5b4a9dcc-b3f5-5bc9-9ef5-16711709fae0.htmlhttp://www.wiscnews.com/bdc/news/local/article_5b4a9dcc-b3f5-5bc9-9ef5-16711709fae0.htmlhttp://report.mitigation2014.org/drafts/final-draft-postplenary/ipcc_wg3_ar5_final-draft_postplenary_chapter8.pdfhttp://report.mitigation2014.org/drafts/final-draft-postplenary/ipcc_wg3_ar5_final-draft_postplenary_chapter8.pdfhttp://report.mitigation2014.org/drafts/final-draft-postplenary/ipcc_wg3_ar5_final-draft_postplenary_chapter8.pdfhttp://report.mitigation2014.org/drafts/final-draft-postplenary/ipcc_wg3_ar5_final-draft_postplenary_chapter8.pdfhttp://report.mitigation2014.org/drafts/final-draft-postplenary/ipcc_wg3_ar5_final-draft_postplenary_chapter8.pdfhttp://report.mitigation2014.org/drafts/final-draft-postplenary/ipcc_wg3_ar5_final-draft_postplenary_chapter8.pdfhttp://www.wiscnews.com/bdc/news/local/article_5b4a9dcc-b3f5-5bc9-9ef5-16711709fae0.html


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Item B: Sprawl and CO2 in Spokane

Below is a series of maps that shows the relationship between sprawl and inefficient land use in

Spokane County and CO2 emissions. The first map is via the American Community Survey and shows the

density of census tracts in the county, with more dense areas shaded darker. The second map is from

the Center for Neighborhood Technology. It shows vehicle miles traveled for various census tracts withinthe county, with the lighter shaded area in the core representing less vehicle miles traveled per person.

The final map is via a survey in 2002 done by Vulcan which sought to quantify CO2 emissions on a more

granule level. When compared with other two maps, the connection between sprawl and increased CO2

becomes clear, as the sparsely populated outlying areas have greater CO2 annually than the more dense

area.


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climate change & spokane: impacts and a way forward

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