climate change - wet tropics of queensland · climate change and both governments are mobilising...
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State of the Wet Tropics Report 2007 – 2008
Lem
uroi
d rin
gtai
l pos
sum
(Mike
Tren
erry)
Rain
fore
st an
d re
ef (K
erry
Trapn
ell)
in the Wet TropicsImpacts and Responses
Climate Change
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Table of Contents
Terms and abbreviations 4
Foreword 5
Executive summary 9
1. Introduction 13 1.1 International perspective 15
1.2 National perspective 16
1.3 Regional perspective 17
2. Wet Tropics regional climate projections 18
3. Impacts of climate change on the WTQWHA 22 3.1 Ecological and biological implications 25
of projected climate change
3.2 Effects of warming on higher altitude 27 habitats in the Wet Tropics
3.3 Effects of warming on Wet Tropics 28 higher altitude vertebrate fauna
3.4 Environmental goods and services 31
4. Management responses 34 4.1 Resilience 35
4.2 Regional planning, coordination and leadership 37
4.2.1 Integrating climate change into management 37
4.2.2 Coordination and alignment 38
4.2.3 Reducing emissions 39
4.2.4 Planning and development 40
4.2.5 Wet Tropics tourism 40
4.2.6 Maximising carbon market opportunities 41
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4.3 Improving and communicating our knowledge 42 of the effects of climate change
4.3.1 Building regional capability and reducing uncertainty 42
4.3.2 Understanding social resilience 43
4.3.3 Establishment of climate change research centres 43
4.3.4 Monitoring 44
4.4 On-ground works to improve forest health 45
4.4.1 Managing environmental stress created by climate change 46
4.4.2 Managing landscape health in the face of climate change 47
4.4.3 Ecological site management 50
4.4.4 Species management 52
4.5 Increasing community awareness and 54 mobilising behavioural change
5. References 57
Terms and abbreviationsasl above sea level
CSIRO CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation
ENSO ElNiñoSouthernOscillation
FNQ FarNorthQueensland
JCU JamesCookUniversity
MTSRF MarineandTropicalSciencesResearchFacility
RRRC ReefandRainforestResearchCentre
TheArea TheWetTropicsofQueenslandWorldHeritageArea
TheAuthority TheWetTropicsManagementAuthority
UNESCO UnitedNationsEducational,ScientificandCulturalOrganisation
WTQWHA WetTropicsofQueenslandWorldHeritageArea
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ForewordClimatechangeisamajorandinsidiousthreattotheecosystemsoftheWetTropicsofQueenslandWorldHeritageArea.Anticipatedchangestotemperature,rainfallandotherclimaticconditionswillcausemajorchangestoecosystemsandleadtothelossofmanyplantandanimalspeciesforwhichtheWetTropicswaslistedontheWorldHeritageregister.
ThisStateoftheWetTropicsReportfocusesontheimpactsofclimatechangeontheinternationallyrecognisedvaluesoftheWorldHeritageArea.Thereportsummarisesthelatestavailablescientificinformationaboutexpectedchangesintheforestsastheyrespondtoclimatechange.Itidentifiescurrentmanagementactionsbeingtakeninresponsetoclimatechangeandidentifiesopportunitiesforfurtheractionataregionalscale.
TheWetTropicsofQueenslandisanextraordinarilydiversenaturalasset.Thepresenceofrainforestsattheedgeofadrycontinentarisesfromararecombinationoffinelybalancedclimaticandtopographicfeatures.EvensmallchangesinclimatearelikelytohavesignificantadverseimpactsontheWorldHeritagevaluesoftheseforests.
Australia’sinternationalreputationforsustainablemanagementofitsnaturalheritageflowsfromitsperformanceinmanagingWorldHeritagepropertiessuchastheWetTropics.InjoiningtheWorldHeritageConvention,Australiaacceptedthatithasadutytoensureprotection,conservation,presentationandtransmissiontofuturegenerationsofitsWorldHeritagelistedproperties.Australiaalso
Andrew Maclean, WTMA executive director
View from Lambs’s Head
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undertookto‘doallitcantothisend,totheutmostofitsownresources’(WorldHeritageConvention,Article4).
EffectiveresponsestoclimatechangeimpactsintheWetTropicshaverealeconomicbenefits.TropicalNorthQueenslandreceivesover2millioninternationalanddomesticvisitorseachyear.Thesevisitorsareprimarilydrawntotheregionbecauseofitsoutstandingnaturalfeatures,inparticular,theWorldHeritagerainforestsandreefs.InternationalvisitorsreturntotheirhomecountryhavingmadejudgementsaboutAustralia’senvironmentalmanagement.Theenvironmentalreputationoftouristdestinationsisanincreasinglyimportantfactorintouristdestinationplanningandspending.
BoththeAustralianandQueenslandGovernmentshaverecognisedthethreatofclimatechangeandbothgovernmentsaremobilisingresourcestocombatit.Thecurrentfocusofclimatechangepolicyatthenationalandstatelevelislargelyonmitigation.TheAustralianandQueenslandGovernmentsareleadingthesearchforwaystoreduceemissionsofgreenhousegasesthroughmeasuressuchasemissionstrading,supportfordevelopmentofalternativeenergysourcesandencouragingenergyconservationinhomesandbusinesses.Allofthesemeasuresareimportanttoreducetheglobalextentofclimatechange.
Whilereducinggreenhousegasemissionsisclearlyimportantatthenationalandglobalscale,ataregionalleveltheemphasismustbeonadaptingtoanticipatedclimatechanges,inadditiontosharingresponsibilityforreducingemissions.ThisrequireschangesinthewaywemanageourWorldHeritageforeststomakethemmoreresilienttothethreatofelevatedtemperatures,changingrainfallpatternsandgreaterclimaticvariability.InaddressingthethreatofclimatechangeonWorldHeritageproperties,UNESCOhasrecommendedthatWorldHeritagepropertiesserveaslaboratorieswheremonitoring,mitigationandadaptationprocessescanbeapplied,testedandimproved.
Nature based tourism
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Putsimply,thebestwaytomaketheforestsoftheWetTropicsresilienttotheanticipatedadverseimpactsofclimatechangeistoensurethattheyarehealthy.Thismeansreducingoreliminatingotherthreatstoforesthealthsuchasweeds,feralanimalsanddisease;fragmentationandisolation;inappropriatefireregimes;andotherimpactsofhumanuseinandaroundtheWorldHeritageArea.
EnsuringtheWetTropicsforestsarehealthyisalreadyacoregoalofmanagement.However,thethreatofclimatechangemeansthatwemustaccelerateourprogressandensureweconsidertheresponseofforestecosystemstofutureaswellascurrentclimaticconditions.ThroughtheWetTropicsManagementAuthorityanditspartneragencies,andwiththesupportofcommunity,industryandregionallandowners,theinstitutionsandprocessesrequiredtoimplementchangearealreadymostlyinplace.Withappropriateinvestment,rapidandeffectiveactionispossible.
MakingtheWetTropicsresilienttotheanticipatedeffectsofclimatechangerequiresworkinfourkeyareas:on-groundworkstoimproveforesthealth;improvingandcommunicatingourknowledgeoftheeffectsofclimatechange;increasingcommunityawarenessandmobilisingbehaviouralchange;andregionalplanning,coordinationandleadership.
ThisreporthighlightsthemagnitudeoftheclimatechangeriskfortheWorldHeritageArea.Itestablishesaframeworkthat,withappropriategovernmentandcommunitysupport,willgiveusthebestchanceofmaintainingtheoutstandinguniversalvaluesoftheAreaforAustraliaandtheworld.
AndrewMacleanExecutiveDirectorWetTropicsManagementAuthority
Rainforest at Cow Bay
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Executive summaryClimatechangecreatesmajorrisksfortheWetTropicsofQueenslandWorldHeritageArea(WTQWHA,theArea).ThisreportidentifiesthekeyvaluesoftheAreathatarevulnerabletoclimatechangeandexplainshowpredictedchangesinrainfall,temperatureandotherclimaticvariableswillaffectthese.Itidentifiesaseriesofactionsthat,withsufficientpublicandprivateinvestment,mayincreasetheresilienceoftheregiontotheanticipatedimpactsofclimatechange.
TheWorldHeritageCommitteeofUNESCOidentifiedtheWTQWHAashavingoutstandinguniversalvalueandintegrity.TheArea’sdiverselandformssupportanextraordinaryassemblageofplantsandanimals.DespitecomprisingonlyaverysmallproportionoftheAustraliancontinent.TheAreasupportsahighproportionofAustralianfloraandfauna,reflectingthediversityandbiologicalproductivityofitsecosystems.
ThedistinctiveanddiverseassemblagesofplantsandanimalsintheWetTropicsaretheresultoffinelybalancedclimaticconditionsthat,inturn,areduetothelatitudeandtopographyoftheregionanditsproximitytoeasterlywindscarryingmoisturefromthePacificOcean.Climatechangethreatenstodisrupttheseclimaticconditionsandmayresultinrapidandcatastrophicchangestotheregionalenvironmentthatwilllimittheextentofrainforestsandleadtotheextinctionofmanyoftheregion’sfaunaandflora.
ThevulnerabilityoftheWetTropicstoclimatechangehasbeenwidelyrecognised.TheWorldHeritageCentre,whichadministerstheWorldHeritageConvention,hasidentifiedtheWTQWHAasasiteatparticularriskfromevensmallchangesintemperature.UNESCOhasproposedthatWorldHeritagesitessuchastheWetTropicscouldserveasvaluablelaboratoriestostudytheimpactsofclimatechangeandtheeffectivenessofmanagementresponses.The
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Rainforest, Mount Lewis
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AustralianGovernment,intherecentlycompletedCarbonPollutionReductionSchemeGreenPaper[52],acknowledgedtheparticularthreatclimatechangeposesfortheWetTropics.TheQueenslandGovernmenthasalsoacknowledgedthethreattotheWetTropicsandhasestablishedclimatechangeasakeypolicydriverintherecentlyreleasedFarNorthQueenslandDraftRegionalPlan2025[11].Thislevelofrecognitionprovidesagoodbasisforinvestmentinthemeasuresrequiredtoeffectivelyrespondtotheidentifiedrisks.
ClimateprojectionsfortheWetTropicsindicatethemagnitudeofchangethattheregion’secosystemsmayencounter.Temperaturemayincreaseby1.4ºCby2030and4.2ºCby2070underhighemissionscenarios.Rainfallispredictedtobecomemoreseasonalwithawetterwetseasonandalonger,drierdryseason.Cycloneintensityispredictedtobegreater,creatingrisksofmorefrequentmajorecosystemdisruptionaswitnessedafterCycloneLarry.TheElNiñophenomenonispredictedtooccurmorefrequently,causingmorefrequentdroughtsandincreasingtheriskofbushfire,withconsequentdamagetorainforests.
ClimatechangesofthismagnitudewillhavesevereandinteractingeffectsonthevaluesoftheWTQWHA.Wecananticipatechangesintheabundanceanddistributionoffloraandfauna.Interactionsbetweenorganisms,suchaspredatorpreyrelationshipsandinsectpollination,arelikelytobedisrupted,creatingconsequentchangesinecosystemcomposition,structureandfunction.
ManyofthehighlyvaluedendemicspeciesoftheAreaareconfinedtothehigher,coolerpartsoftheregion.Modellingindicatesthatwith2ºCwarmingtheproportionoftheAreawithameanannualtemperatureof22ºCorlesswillmarkedlyreduce,diminishingtheproportionsuitableforthesethermallysensitivefauna.Thiswillsubstantiallyincreasetheriskofextinctionforseveralhighelevationendemicwildlifespecies.
DisruptionofecosystemsandchangedclimaticconditionswillmaketheAreamorevulnerabletoweed,feralanimalanddiseaseinvasion.Weedspeciesthatmaynotbeabletoinvadenativeecosystemsatpresentmaygainacompetitiveadvantageunderthewarmerdrierconditionsthatareexpected.Theriskofnewvertebrateandinsectpestsandplantandanimaldiseasesisalsolikelytoincrease.
Impacts of Cyclone Larry at Bicton Hill
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Cloudstrippingisasignificantsourceoffreshwaterintheregion.Temperatureincreasesarelikelytocauseariseinthealtitudeofthecloudlayer,reducingtheareawherecloudstrippingcanoccuranddiminishingcatchmentrunoff.Reducedstreamflowswillhaveecologicalimpactsandwillalsoreducetheamountofwateravailableforirrigationandurbanwatersupply.
Climatechangewillalsocompromiseotherenvironmentalgoodsandservices.Forexample,ifthelossofrainforestvaluesbecomesobvious,theAreamaybecomelessattractivefortourists,creatingsignificanteconomicimpactsintheregion.
WhiletheoutlookfortheWTQWHAisacauseforgreatconcern,muchcanbedoneataregionalleveltoadapttotheanticipatedchanges.ThemostimportantmanagementinterventionswillbethosethatbuildecologicalresilienceinandaroundtheArea.Thefollowingfourbroadareasofactivityareproposed:
On-ground works to improve forest health –• Theprincipalmeansofachievingecosystemresilienceistobuildandmaintainecosystemhealth.Measuressuchaswildlifecorridors,limitingfurtherclearing,rehabilitationofpreviouslyclearedareas,protectingimportanthabitatrefugesandmanagingthethreatofenvironmentalpestswillallassisttostrengthenWetTropicsecosystemsagainstclimatechange.
Improving and communicating our knowledge of the effects of climate •change –RegionalresearchinstitutionssuchasCSIROandJamesCookUniversity(JCU)withsupportfromtheMarineandTropicalSciencesResearchFacility(MTSRF),havemadegoodprogressinunderstandingthe
Daintree rainforests
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impactofclimatechangeintheArea.Moreworkisneededtoimprove,refineandcommunicatecurrentknowledge.ThereareopportunitiestocapitaliseonregionalresearchcapabilitythroughestablishmentofaCentreforClimateChangeAdaptationatJCUthatwoulddeliverinformationtomanagersandpolicymakerstoimproveadaptationresponses.
Increasing community awareness and mobilising behavioural change •– PrivatelandmanagerscanmakeamajorcontributiontotheadaptationworkintheWetTropics.Landandenvironmentagenciesneedtoprovideleadershipbyincreasingcommunityawarenessoftherisksofclimatechangeandhelpingcommunitiestofindregionallyrelevantwaysofadapting.Improvedlandmanagementpracticesshouldbesupportedthroughtechnicaladvice,incentivesandappropriatelandandresourcemanagementpolicies.Communitiesmustbeappropriatelyengagedindecision-makingaffectingtheirownlandorpubliclandssuchasthoseintheWTQWHA.
Regional planning, coordination and leadership• –Thisworkaimstocoordinateandaligntheeffortsofregionallandandenvironmentagenciesandprivatelandmanagerstoensureresourcesarewelltargetedandeffortisappropriatelyalignedwithagreedpriorities.Regionalinstitutionsandcommunitiesalreadyhavetheunderlyingcapabilitytotakeactionagainstclimatechangeifsupportedwithadequateresources.
Promoting cassowary habitat with Cassowary Country signs
Tree planting in the Daintree
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1. IntroductionClimatechangepresentsanimmediateandurgentchallengeforbiodiversityconservationintheWetTropicsregion.Thetransformationofmuchoftheenvironmentbyagriculture,urbanisationandindustryhascreated,andcontinuestocreate,awiderangeofunintentionalexperimentsinwhichtheregion’swildlifeareexposedtosevereandnovelpressurestowhichtheywilleitherhavetoadaptorceasetoexist.Thegreatestoftheseexperimentsisnowunderway–thealterationoftheatmosphereandclimateoftheearth,withconsequencesforeverylivingthing.InthisreportweattempttosketchoutthemaintasksthattheAuthorityconsiderstheregionneedstoundertaketorespondtothischallenge.
TheforestsoftheWetTropicsofQueenslandWorldHeritageArea(WTQWHA,theArea)owetheirgenesistolong-termcyclesofchangeinclimate.Itmayseemironicthen,thatclimatechangeisnowregardedasthesinglebiggestthreattothefutureoftheoutstandinguniversalvaluesandintegrityforwhichtheAreawasinscribedontotheWorldHeritagelistin1988[1].
TheAreaisalarge(894,420ha),rugged,centralspineofthe1,976,000haWetTropicsbioregionwhichextendsfromnearCooktowninthenorthtonearTownsvilleinthesouthandborderstheGreatBarrierReefWorldHeritageAreaalongaconsiderablepartofthecoastline.Theregion’seconomydependslargelyontourismgeneratedfromtheattractionofitstwoWorldHeritageAreas.
Inthepastfewyearstherehasbeenaremarkableincreaseinthelevelofawarenessofclimatechangeworldwide.Concernsaboutcausesandeffectshavemovedbeyondtherealmofscientificdebatetothelivingroomsofpeopleeverywhere.Asevidenceaccumulates
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Reef and rainforest - two World Heritage Areas
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thatawarmingplanetwillcausewidespreadandmostlyharmfuleffects,scientistsandpolicymakershaveproposedvariousmitigationstrategiesthatmightreducetherateofclimatechange–anationalandinternationalresponseforthoseofficialsingovernmentwhomustplannowforanuncertainfuture.However,strategiesforadaptingtoclimatechangeataregionallevelareequallyimportant.
Althoughtheoptionsavailablefortakingadaptiveactionhavebecomebetterdefinedovertime,adaptationplanningcontinuestoinvolvemanyuncertainties.Nevertheless,itisimperativethat,inaregionasinternationallyimportantastheWetTropics,wetakeimmediateproactivestepstoincreasetheprobabilityofourbiodiversitysurviving.Wecannotbecomplacent,wehavetoomuchtolose.
TheWTQWHAisalivingmuseumcontainingoneofthemostcompleteanddiverselivingrecordsofthemajorstagesintheevolutionoflandplantsintheworld.Itconservesalargelyintactfloraandfaunawithhundredsoflocallyendemicspeciesrestrictedwithinitsboundaries.ItalsoprovidestheonlyhabitatformorerareorthreatenedspeciesandprimitiveplantsandanimalsthananywhereelseinQueensland.TheWetTropicsregion,asawhole,conserves41%ofallQueensland’svascularplantspeciesinslightlyover1%oftheState’slandarea.WithintheAustraliancontext,theWetTropicsregionisaverydistinctivebioclimaticandlandformunitwithexceptionallysteepanddiverseenvironmental
gradientsandcontainsthecountry’sgreatestvariationintopographicalrelief.SomeappreciationoftheimportanceandspeciesrichnessoftheWetTropicsbioregioncanbegainedfromthecontributionitmakestoAustralia’soverallbiodiversity.
Ravenshoe
Cooktown
Cairns
TownsvilleLegend
World Heritage Area
Bioregion
Date Produced : 6 Sept 2005Reference : j3852
The WTQWHA and the Wet Tropics bioregion
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Blue ghost moth
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AlthoughtheWetTropicscomprisesonly0.26%ofthetotalareaoftheAustraliancontinentitsbiodiversitysignificanceisenormous,beinghomeforthefollowingpercentagesofAustralia’sspecies[2]:
TheWetTropicsisalsocharacterisedbyaverylargenumberofrestrictedendemicspecieswhosetotalworld-widedistributionisconfinedtotheregion–insomeinstancestoasinglelocationwithintheregionsuchasamountainsummitorasmallsub-catchment.
1.1 International perspectiveTheissueoftheimpactsofclimatechangeonWorldHeritagepropertieswasbroughttotheattentionoftheWorldHeritageCommitteein2005byagroupofconcernedorganisationsandindividuals.TroubledaboutthepotentialforclimatechangetoadverselyaffectandthreatentheoutstandinguniversalvaluesandintegrityofWorldHeritageproperties,theWorldHeritageCommitteetaskedtheWorldHeritageCentreofUNESCOanditsadvisorybodies,toundertakefurtherinvestigationoftheissue.TheCommitteeendorsedtheresultingreports,PredictingandManagingtheEffectsofClimateChangeonWorldHeritage[3]andStrategytoAssistStatesPartiestoImplementAppropriateManagementResponses[4],asofficialdocumentsin2006.
TheCommitteesubsequentlyrequestedtheWorldHeritageCentretodevelopapolicydocumentontheimpactsofclimatechangeonWorldHeritageproperties.ThepolicydocumentwasadoptedbytheGeneralAssemblyofStatesPartiesin2007[5,6].ThepolicydocumentencouragesmanagersofWorldHeritagepropertiestoincludeclimatechangemessagesintheircommunication,educationandinterpretationactivitiesasappropriate;andtobuildpublicawarenessandknowledgeofclimatechange,itspotentialimpactsonWorldHeritageproperties
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Bowenia spectabilis
vascularplants(26%)•fernspecies(65%) –cycadspecies(21%) –coniferspecies(37%) –orchidspecies(30%) –
birdspecies(40%)•frogspecies(29%)•
mammals(35%)•marsupialspecies(30%) –batspecies(58%) –rodentspecies(25%) –
reptilespecies(20%)•freshwaterfishspecies(42%)•butterflyspecies(58%).•
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andtheirvalues,andactivitiesoravailableoptionsforadaptationandmitigation.ThisreporthasbeenpreparedtoprovidesuchamessageabouttheimpactsofclimatechangeontheWTQWHAandoptionsforadaptation.
Thepolicydocument[6]reiteratedthattheprimaryobjectiveofWorldHeritagemanagementistosafeguardtheoutstandinguniversalvaluesandintegrityofWorldHeritageproperties.ThedocumentalsorecommendedthatWorldHeritagepropertiesserveaslaboratorieswheremonitoring,mitigationandadaptationprocessescanbeapplied,testedandimproved,since actions taken at these iconic propertiesattractworld-wideattentionandcaninfluencetheadoptionofgoodmanagementpracticeselsewhere.
In2007theWorldHeritageCentrepublishedanumberofcasestudiesonclimatechange[7].TheWTQWHAwasidentifiedasoneofthesitesatparticularriskfromevenasmallincreaseintemperature.ThiswasprimarilyduetotheverylargepredicteddeclinesinrangesizeforalmosteveryendemicvertebratefaunalspeciesfoundintheArea.
1.2 National perspectiveQueensland’sWetTropics,alongwiththeGreatBarrierReef,theAustralianAlps,andSouthwestWesternAustralia,haveconsistentlybeenidentifiedinseveralnationalandstatereportsasbeingatparticularriskofbiodiversitylossfromclimatechange[8,9,10].ResearchcommissionedbytherecentGarnautClimateChangeReview[51]notedthattheWetTropicswasamonganumberofWorldHeritagepropertiesinAustraliaunderthreat.TheAustralianGovernment’srecentCarbonPollutionReductionSchemeGreenPaper[52]alsoacknowledgedtheseriousimpactthatclimatechangeislikelytohaveontheWTQWHA.ConcernabouttheimpactsofclimatechangeintheWetTropicsonthenation’sbiodiversityishighlightedinmanysectionsoftherecentOfficeofClimateChangereport,ClimateChangeinQueensland:whatthescienceistellingus[50].
Selaginella species
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1.3 Regional perspectiveProtectionoftheregion’snaturalvaluesdependsnotonlyoneffectivelyadaptingtotheimpactsofclimatechange,butalsoonthetypeofregionaldevelopmentpaththatispursued.TheWetTropicsregionhasexperiencedasteadyincreaseinpopulationgrowthoverrecentdecades,averaginghigherthanthenationalgrowthrate[11].Impactsonthenaturalenvironmentarelikelytocontinueincreasingalongwithpopulationgrowth.Itwill,therefore,benecessaryforclimatechangeadaptationresponsestobeviewedinthewidercontextofregionalsustainabledevelopmenteffortssuchasespousedintheFarNorthQueenslandDraftRegionalPlan2025[11].AnyproposedregionalresponsesaimedatreducingthevulnerabilityofthevaluesandintegrityoftheAreamustbedesignedandimplementedinthislargerregionallandscapecontext.TheAreashouldbeconsideredasthecorefocalareawithinafunctioningregionalnetworkofnaturalandsemi-naturalareas.TheprotectionandmanagementoftheAreamustbeapproachedfromawhole-of-regionlandscapeperspective.
Urban development, Mission Beach
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2. Wet Tropics regional climate projections
Cyclone Larry
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SummaryTheWetTropicscanexpectawarmer,drierfuture.1.
Althoughwetseasonrainfallislikelytoincreaseformostyears,this2.willbecounteredbyanincreaseinthefrequencyofElNiñodroughtyears,resultinginreducedwetseasonrainfallduringtheseElNiñoperiods.
Moreintenserainfalleventsincludinghigherintensitycyclonesare3.likely.
Increasedtemperatureswillresultincorrespondingincreasesin4.evaporationandtranspiration.
Sealevelsarerisingandanincreaseintheareaoflowlandsaffected5.bystormsurgeandsaltwaterintrusionandinundationisexpected.
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CSIROhasbeendevelopingtoolsandmethodstopredictclimatechangetrendsatascalerelevantfortheWetTropicsandtheGreatBarrierReefregions.ThisisbeingundertakenthroughaprogramofresearchlinkedtotheMarineandTropicalSciencesResearchFacility(MTSRF)[12]administeredinNorthQueenslandbytheReefandRainforestResearchCentre(RRRC)[13].CSIROhasidentifiedanumberofpossibleoutcomesbasedontheresultsof15differentglobalclimatemodels[14].Predictingthemagnitude,rateandspatialpatternofclimatechangeisverycomplexandscenariosforareasassmallastheWetTropicsregioncontainadegreeofuncertainty.Thesemodels,therefore,shouldnotberegardedasforecastsbut,rather,asindicationsofthelikelydirectionsandmagnitudeofchangebasedonthebestcurrentinformation.Thewisestapproachistousetheseprojectionstoassesstheadditionalriskthatchangesonthisscalecouldpose.
SomeoftheprojectionsfortheWetTropicsbasedontheresultsofthesemodelsarelistedbelow[14].
Temperature (compared to 1990 temperatures)2030
Anincreaseof0.5ºCforlowemissionscenario•
Anincreaseof1.4ºCforhighemissionscenario•
2070
Anincreaseof1.0ºCforlowemissionscenario•
Anincreaseof4.2ºCforhighemissionscenario•
Anincreaseinthefrequencyofextremetemperatureperiods(daysabove•35ºC)fromthecurrentannualaverageofthreedaystoupto41daysby2070.
RainfallRegionalrainfallshowsadecreasingtrendoverthelastcenturyandthis•trendisstrongerafter1950
Overalldrierandmoreseasonalconditionsfortheregionarelikely,•characterisedbyalongeranddrierdryseason
Rainfallvariabilityisexpectedtobehigherfromyeartoyear,especiallyfor•the wet seasons
Rainfallisexpectedtoincreaseslightlyinthewetseason,dependingonthe•stateandfrequencyoftheElNiñoSouthernOscillation(ENSO)
Rainfallisexpectedtodecreasemarkedlyinthelatedryseason•
TherewillbeanincreaseinthefrequencyofElNiñoeventsresultingin•lowerrainfallandlongerdryseasons[15].
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2030Changesinrainfallof-6%to+5%annually•
-5%to+4%wetseason(January–March)•
-16%to+2%dryseason(August–October)•
2070
Changesinrainfallof-19%to+14%annually•
-16%to+13%wetseason(January–March)•
-50%to+7%dryseason(August–October).•
Climatic eventsModelsindicateanincreaseinthefrequencyandseverityofextreme•weatherconditionssuchasheatwaves,floods,droughtsanddestructivestorms[15]
Tropicalcyclonesareprojectedtoincreaseinmaximumintensity(+5%to•+10%inmaximumwindspeedand+20%to+30%increaseinmaximumprecipitationby2030),butshowlittlechangeintheirregionofformationornumber(whichishighlydependantuponchangestoENSO)[14]
Ariseinthealtitudeofthecloudbaseispredicted,resultinginaretarding•ofthecloudstrippingabilityoftheregion’suplandrainforests.Theseuplandrainforestscurrentlyderiveupto30%oftheirtotalannualprecipitationfrominterceptingthecloudlayer[16].Ariseinthecloudbasewould
Josephine Falls
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therebyreducethetotaleffectivetransferofwaterfromtheatmospheretotheregion’sterrestrialsystemswithseriousimpactsonhydrology,ecosystemprocessesandbiodiversity[17].
Coastal areasAriseinsealevelsof3cmto17cmby2030ispredicted,increasingto18cm•to59cmby2100dependinguponthenatureoflocalcoastalrelief[15]
Anincreaseintheintensityofoceanicstormsurgescausedbybotharising•sealevelandmoreseverecyclonesresultingina20%to30%increaseinstormsurgeheight[18].
Cape Tribulation
Cloud forest
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3. Impacts of climate change on the WTQWHA
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SummaryClimatechangewillhavesevereadverseimpactsonwildlifeandtheir1.habitatsaswellasonecosystemsandthegoodsandservicestheyprovidesociety.
Ingeneral,allnativespecieswillbemorevulnerable,eventhoseable2.totolerateclimaticchangesper se,astheywillallhavetodealwithavarietyofnewcompetitors,predators,diseasesandintroducedspeciesforwhichtheymayhavenonaturaldefence.
Itispredictedthatexistingecosystemswillundergomajorchanges.3.Somearelikelytodisappearentirely;sometotallynewornovelecosystemsmayappear;andotherswillexperiencedramaticchangesinspeciescompositionandgeographicextent.
Whilerainfalltotalsmaynotvarybymuchunderclimatechange,4.therecouldbesignificantchangestothevariabilityandseasonalityofrainfall.
Climatechangewilladverselyaffectarangeofenvironmentalgoods5.andservicesprovidedbytheWTQWHA.Forinstance,ariseincloudlevelswouldcauseasignificantdeclineincatchmentwateryieldsourcedfromcloudstripping,animportantsourceduringthedryseason.
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ResearchshowsthatthebiodiversityoftheAreaishighlysensitivetoclimatechange[19,20,21].Thelocationandextentofrainforestsinparticulararelargelydeterminedbyrainfallanditsseasonality,whilethetypeofrainforestandmanyoftheorganismsfoundwithinarainforestdependuponnarrowtemperatureranges.Climatechangeimpactsuponbiodiversityatallitslevelsoforganisation,rangingfrombiological,ecosystemandecologicalimpactsthroughtopopulationlevelimpacts.
Theseimpactsresulteitherdirectlyfromclimatechange per se orindirectlythroughinteractionswithotherspeciesthatareaffectedbyclimatechange,leadingtochangesincompetition,food,habitatandpredationpatternsandprocesses.Forsomespeciestheseindirectimpactsmaybestrongerthandirectimpacts.Thiscascadeofclimatechangeimpactsalsointeractswithotherhumanpressuresonbiodiversitysuchashabitatdegradationandloss,waterextractionandregulationofflowregimes,pollutionandintroductionandspreadofpestspecies.Notonlydoclimatechangeimpactsaddtotheseotherpressures,theyalsointeract,alteringthewayspeciesandecosystemswouldotherwiserespondandadapt.
Biologicalimpactsincludedirectchangestoorganismssuchasphysiologicalandbehaviouralchanges,including:
differentialresponsesbydifferentspeciesinbothmagnitudeandtypeto•changingconditions
changesintimingofspecies’life-cyclessuchasfloweringandfruiting•(phenology).
Changeswillalsooccurtothecomposition,structure,functionandservicesofecosystemsincluding:
changesinnutrientcyclingandnaturalresourcesupplysuchwatercycles•
Bumpy satinash flowers
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changesinpredator-prey,parasite-host,plant-pollinatorandplant-disperser•relationships
changesinecosystemservicessuchaswatersupply,pestcontroland•pollination.
Ecologicalimpactsincludethosethatresultfromchangedinteractionsbetweenorganismsandtheirenvironment,therebyaffectingcommunitycompositionandconfiguration.Theyinclude:
changesinbreeding,establishment,growth,competitionandmortality•
changesinthelocationofspecies’habitatsresultinginrangeshiftsand/or•lossesduetorangeexpansions,contractionsandeliminations
increasedopportunityforrangeexpansionofinvasivepestspeciesincluding•weeds,feralanimals,pathogensandparasites
increasedopportunityforrangeexpansionofnativespecieswithextensive,•non-patchyranges,long-rangedispersalmechanisms,largepopulationsandhighgeneticdiversity
changesinthestructureandcompositionofecologicalcommunities•
formationofnovelcommunitiesbasedonnewspeciesassemblages.•
Populationimpactsrefertotheultimateimpactonspeciesintermsofchangesintheirabundanceanddistribution.Theyinclude:
changesinpresence/absenceandrelative/absoluteabundances•
differentialindividualspecies’responsestowarmeranddrier/moister•conditions
increasesintheriskofextinctionforspeciesthatarealreadyvulnerable•duetolimitedclimaticranges,limiteddispersalability,specialisedhabitatrequirements,smallpopulationsand/orlowgeneticdiversity.
Interactionswithothernaturalandartificialfactorsinclude:
changesintheintensity,frequencyandseasonalityofextremeeventssuch•ascyclones,floods,droughtsandfires
changesinhumanlanduse•pressures(synergieswithchangestolanduseandotherpopulationpressuresontheenvironment).
Pandanus on fire
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3.1 Ecological and biological implications of projected climate change
Individualspeciescanexhibittwobasicresponses(inmanycombinations)toclimatechange.Theycanadapttonewconditionswithintheirexistingrangeortheycanmigratetolocationswheresuitableclimaticconditionspersist.Thecapacityofindividualspeciestoadopteitherofthesestrategieswillvary.
Species responses likely to be observedshiftsinspecies’ranges-bothlatitudinalandaltitudinal[20,21]•
changesinspecies’abundances(includinglocalextinctions)[22]•
changesinthelengthofaplantspecies’growingseason•
earlierfloweringinplants,earlieremergenceininsectsandearlieregg•layinginbirds[23,24]
changestothetimingandsequencingofflowering,fruitingandleafflush•ofplantscausingmanyflow-onimpactstospeciesdependentupontheseplants.
Ecological responses likely to be observedAreductioninthenutritionalvalueandanincreaseinthetoughnessofmost•foliageduetoincreasedCO2levels.Thiswillhavesignificantdetrimentaleffectsontheabundanceoffolivores(leaf-eaters)suchasendemicringtailpossumsandmanyinsects[25].
Changesintheclimate-controlleddistributionpatternsofarborealfolivores•will‘push’speciesoffnutrient-rich,basalticsoilsatmidaltitudesandontoincreasinglypoorergraniticsoilsatcooler,higherelevations[25].
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Lemuroid ringtail possum
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Raisedcloudbaseswillaffectspeciesrequiringhighandconsistentmoisture•levels[19],directlyaffectingsuspendedmossesandepiphytes,microhylidfrogs,litterskinks,soilinvertebratesandsoilmicrobes.
Plant and animal invasionsThereisariskoffocusingtoomuchonwhatwillbelostandnotenoughonwhatwillbegainedbecauseofclimatechange.Althoughmanyspeciesarelikelytobenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange,thegreatestcommunityandecosystemimpactsmaycomefromthosenativeorexoticspeciesthatarefavouredbychangedconditionsandinteractwithotherspecies(forinstance,competitors,predatorsandinvasiveweeds)[26].Climatechangeispredictedtosignificantlyincreasethevulnerabilityofecosystemstoinvasionbyferalanimals,weedsandpathogens[27,28]andsomenativecolonistspecies.
Changes in fire regimes [28, 32] Firecontrolsmuchoftheboundarybetweenrainforestandsclerophyllforests[33].DuringtheElNiñoeventof2002and2003,firesencroachedintorainforestareas.IncreasesinthefrequencyofdroughtsassociatedwithElNiñoeventswill
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increasethefrequencyandseverityofunusualfireyearsandmayleadtolargechangesinthedistributionofrainforestandsclerophyllcommunities.TheWetTropicsregioncanexpectmorefrequentandmoreintensefiresdueto:
hottertemperatures•moredroughts•lessrainfallinwinter/spring•longerperiodsoflowhumidity•CO• 2inducedincreasesinbiomasssmallerwindowsofopportunityfor•prescribedburns.
3.2 Effects of warming on higher altitude habitats in the Wet Tropics
ManyWetTropicsendemicspeciesliveonlyinthecooler,higheraltitudepartsoftheregion[30].Figure 1modelshowclimatechangemayaffectthespatialextentandpatternofcoolhabitatswheretheaveragetemperatureislessthan22ºC.Thisapproximatesthetemperaturethresholdformostarborealleaf-eatingmammalssuchaspossumsintheWetTropics[31].
Figure 1.AreasintheWetTropicswithmeanannualtemperatureslessthan22.0ºC(black)intoday’sclimate(left)andafter2.0ºCwarming[31].
Hot fire
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3.3 Effects of warming on Wet Tropics higher altitude vertebrate fauna
BioclimaticmodelsdevelopedbyresearchersfromJamesCookUniversityandCSIROsuggestthatclimatechangeislikelytohavecatastrophiceffectsonmanyoftheregion’sendemicvertebratespecies.
Anincreaseinregionalaveragetemperatureof1.0ºCcouldpotentiallyproduceadecreaseof60%inthedistributionalrangeoftheregion’sendemicvertebratespecies[21]basedonthesespecies’currentdistributionalrangelimits.Amid-rangeclimatechangepredictionof3.5ºCcouldfurtherreducethedistributionofendemicvertebratestoapproximately5%oftheircurrentrange.Projectedwarmingofthismagnitudealsosimulatedalossofapproximately65%oftheendemicvertebratescurrentlyfoundintheregion.Thiswouldimplyastronglikelihoodofapproximately50speciesbecominggloballyextinctfromtheWTQWHAwithonlyamoderateaveragetemperatureincrease.Mostuplandendemicvertebratespecieswilldisappearundertheworst-casescenarioswithtemperatureincreasesof5.0ºCormore[21].Witheachmodelledincreaseintemperature,itisalsoevidentthatpatchesofclimaticallysuitablehabitatbecomesmaller,fragmentedandmoreisolated.AnyofthedescribedscenarioswouldbecatastrophicwithrespecttotheconservationofthevaluesforwhichtheAreawaslisted.
Table 1liststhoseWetTropicsendemicvertebratespeciespredictedtolosegreaterthan50%oftheircurrentareaofcoreclimaticenvironmentwithonlya1.0ºCincreaseintemperature.Figure 2illustratesthesequentialdeclineindistributionofspeciesrichnessofWetTropicsendemicterrestrialvertebratesastheclimategetsprogressivelywarmer.
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Table 1.WetTropicsendemicvertebratefaunapredictedtobemostatriskfromclimatechange[19,21].
Frogs
Thornton Peak nursery-frog Cophixalus concinnusMagnificent broodfrog Pseudophryne covacevichaePipping nursery-frog Cophixalus hosmeriNorthern barred frog Mixophyes carbinensisTangerine nursery-frog Cophixalus neglectusBloomfield nursery-frog Cophixalus exiguusMountain top nursery-frog Cophixalus rheophilusNorthern tinker-frog Taudactylus rheophilus
Mammals
Atherton antechinus Antechinus godmaniMahogany glider Petaurus gracilisDaintree River ringtail possum Pseudochirulus cinereusLemuroid ringtail possum Hemibelideus lemuroidesHerbert River ringtail possum Pseudochirulus herbertensisSpotted-tailed quoll Dasyurus maculatus
Birds
Golden bowerbird Prionodura newtonianaAtherton scrubwren Sericornis keriMountain thornbill Acanthiza katherina
Skinks
Thornton Peak skink Calyptotis thorntonensisBartle Frere skink Techmarscincus jigurruCzechura’s litter skink Saproscincus czechuraiskink (no common name) Saproscincus lewisiskink (no common name) Lampropholis robertsiskink (no common name) Eulamprus frereiskink (no common name) Glaphyromorphus mjobergi
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Figure 2.Thedeclineindistributionofspeciesrichnessofregionallyendemicterrestrialvertebrateswithincreasingtemperature(thedarkertheshadeofgreythegreaterthespeciesrichness)[21].
Predictedeffectscouldconceivablyhavebeengreaterifclimatevariablesotherthantemperaturewereconsidered.IncreasedCO2concentrations,forexample,mayreducethenutritionalvalueandincreasethelignincomponentoffoliagewithdetrimentaleffectsontheabundanceofleaf-eatingfauna.Inaddition,changes
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ingeographicdistributionmaypushspeciesoffnutrient-richbasalticsoils(atmidaltitudes)andontoincreasinglypoorergraniticsoilsathigherelevations[25].Forestsonthesepoorersoilsgenerallysupportlowerpopulationdensitiesofleaf-eatingfauna[25].Ontheotherhand,thesemodelsarebasedsolelyonthedegreetowhichthecurrentmacrohabitatoftheseanimalsislikelytochange(exposure)andignorespossibleintrinsicadaptiveandbehaviouraltraitsofthespecies,orextrinsicmicrohabitatfactorsthatmayhelpincounteringtheextentofthepredictedimpact.Refinementofthesemodelsisacurrentfocusofresearchefforts.
3.4 Environmental goods and servicesClimatechangeisexpectedtonotonlyresultinsevereadverseimpactsonhabitatsandwildlifewithintheWTQWHA,butalsoimpactupontheenvironmentalgoodsandservicestheAreaprovides(Table 2).Theregion’spopulationreceivesgreatvaluefromtheseecologicalgoodsandservices,manyofwhichsupporteconomicactivities.Forexample,thesupplyofasecureandsafewatersupplysupportsthequalityoflifeofresidents,ensuresgoodpublichealth,andfosterstheeconomicgrowthanddevelopmentoftheregion.
Table 2.ExamplesofecosystemgoodsandservicesprovidedbytheWTQWHA[29]
Maintenance of the environment
Utilitarian uses
Personal enjoyment Ethics
carbon cycles• water cycles• water quality• regional • climates and microclimate flood mitigation• groundwater • rechargepollination• pest control• habitat• refugia• water • regulationwaste • breakdown
water supply• tourism• recreation• genetic • resourcesscientific • discoveryeducation• horticulture • food• pharmaceutical • products
enjoyment• aesthetic • pleasureinspiration• serenity• leisure • activities (photography, bushwalking, bird watching, camping)lifestyle• sense of place• national • identity
ethical/moral • valuesintrinsic • natural values and importancecultural values• historic values• existence • values
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Rainfall and water supplyAreliablewatersupplyisoneofthemostvaluedenvironmentalservicessuppliedbytheArea.WhileitispredictedtheWetTropicsregionwillfaremuchbetterthanmanyotherregionsinAustraliawithrespecttoavailabilityofwaterwiththeonsetofclimatechange,nevertheless,impactsinthisregionareexpectedtooccur.Thesearesummarisedbelow:
AnincreaseinthefrequencyofElNiñoyearswillreducesummerwet•seasonstreamflows.
Reducedrainfallinthewinterdryseasonasaresultofincreasedevapo-•transpirationanddecreasedcloudstrippingwillreducedryseasonstreamflows.
Therewillbegreaterseasonalityinstreamflows(morevariableinthewet•season,lowerinthedryseason).
Therewillbegreateryeartoyearvariabilityinflows(duetogreater•frequencyofextremeevents).
The combination of low •elevation,decreasesinfreshwaterflowsandrisingsealevelsincreasestheriskofsaltwaterincursionsthatmayaffectthequalityoffreshwatersourcescurrentlytappedforurbanandagriculturalpurposes[18].
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Cloud stripping and water supplyHighaltituderainforestswhichareimmersedincloudforalargeproportionofthetimestripconsiderableamountsofmoisturefrompassingclouds.ResearchersfromCSIROhavefoundthat,insomemonthsoftheyear,upto40%morewaterisharvestedoutofthecloudsthanismeasuredasrainfallinaraingauge.Theyfoundthattheregion’shighaltituderainforestsbehavelikegiantsponges,capturinglargevolumesofwaterdirectlyfromclouds,whichtheythenreleaseslowlythroughouttheyear.Thisprocessisnowbelievedtobeofgreatimportanceinmaintainingstreamflowsthroughoutthedryseason.
Theprocessisconsideredsignificanttotheoverallwaterbudgetoftheregion,especiallyintermsofwaterrechargeduringthedryseason.Fortheuplandrainforest,cloud-strippingcontributesupto70%ofthetotalwaterinputintotheforestsystemduringthedriermonths.Duringthewetseason,highrainfallmaskstheimportanceofcloudstrippingwhichnonethelessstillcontributes10-20%ofthetotalwaterinputintotheregion’suppercatchments[16].
Undercurrentclimateconditions,cloudstrippingoccursinrainforestsmorethan600masl(abovesealevel).Witheverydegreeofwarmingthebaseofthecloudcondensationlayerispredictedtorisebyanaverageof100m.By2050wemayexpecttemperaturestobebetween1.0ºCto3.0ºCwarmerthanatpresentwhichequatestoariseintheeffectivecloudstrippingcondensationlayerfrom600maslto900masl.With3.0ºCofwarming,theeffectivecloudstrippingareaintheWetTropicswilldecreasebyasmuchas40%[16].Whatthiswillmeanforabsolutewateryieldsremainsunknown,excepttoconcludethatwateryieldswillbesignificantlylower,especiallyinthedryseason.Theimplicationsofclimatechangeonthisprocesswillinclude:
reductionintheareasuitableforthecloudstrippingprocess•
lesscloudstrippinginthedryseasonandgenerallyreducedcloudcover•
changestovegetationcharacteristicswhichmayreducethewaterstripping•capacityofuplandrainforest.
Behana Creek water supply
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4. Management responses
Managementinvolvesallocatingresourcesamongstcompetinginterests.Therelativeimportanceofdifferentissuesmaychangeasaresultofclimatechange.Therefore,resourceallocationsneedtobeadaptive,activelyseekinginformationwheretherearedataandunderstandinggaps,andtakingaccountofnewinformationasitbecomesavailable.
Changestoecosystemswillinevitablyaffecthumancommunitiesandindustriesthatdependonthem.RegionalcommunitiesaredependentontheWTQWHAasamajorsourceofincomeandanimportantdeterminantoflifestyle.Themagnitudeoftheimpactsofclimatechangeonthenaturalvaluesoftheregionwilldepend,inlargepart,onthewillingnessandcapacityofthelocalcommunitytomodifythosepracticesthatreducetheecologicalresilienceofnaturalandsemi-naturalhabitats.Effectivemanagement,therefore,requirestheemploymentofstrategiesthataresociallyandeconomicallysustainable[34,35,36].
Althoughthereremainuncertaintiesaboutthetiming,magnitudeandgeographicdistributionofclimatechangeimpacts,itisevidenttheresultwillbeawarming,drying,morevariableclimatewithmorefrequent,extremeweatherevents.TheseclimatechangesarelikelytointeractwithabroadrangeofotherpressuresontheArea.Tworecentclimateeventscanhelptoillustratethenatureofstressesanddisruptionstonatural,socialandeconomicsystemsbyaclimatedrivenbywarmertemperatures:theseverestormsofCycloneLarryin2006;andtheseveredroughtconditionswhichaffectedtheregionin2002and2003andtheassociatedpenetrationofbushfiresintorainforestareas.
Whileclimatechangehassignificantly‘uppedtheante’withrespecttoregionallanduseplanningandmanagementissues,theoverlapandcloserelationshipbetweentheapplicationofbestpracticelandmanagementmeasuresandconstructiveclimatechangeadaptationmeasuresissignificant.Thisprovidesconsiderablereassuranceandopportunitiesfortheregiontotakeuseful,‘no
SummaryEffectiveactioncanbetakennowtobuildresilienceintheWetTropicslandscapetothethreatofclimatechange.Theactionsneededtocombatclimatechangeinclude:
on-groundworkstoimproveforesthealth1.
increasingcommunityawarenessandmobilisingbehaviouralchange2.
improvingandcommunicatingourknowledgeoftheeffectsof3.climatechange
improvingregionalplanningandcoordination.4.
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regrets’climatechangeresponsemeasures–thetypeofmeasuresthatwillhavecomplementarybenefitsformaintainingthehealthandconditionoftheAreatogetherwithlong-termflow-onbenefitstotheregionaleconomyandqualityoflife.Muchofwhatneedstobedoneisalreadybeingdone–itjustneedsacommitmenttodothesethingsbetter,moreoften,overalargerareaandinamorecoordinatedandprioritisedway.Itwillalsorequireacommitmentfromtheregionalcommunitytoembracethesechangesandadaptationinitiatives.Livinginaninternationallyrecognisedbiologicalhotspotentailsresponsibilitiestoensureitisconservedforallpeopleandforfuturegenerations.
Therearetwobroadcategoriesofclimatechangeresponses:mitigation(avoidingorreducinggreenhousegasemissionsandincreasingsequestrationofgreenhousegases);andadaptation(copingwithclimatechangeimpacts).Thefollowingpracticalstepsareaimedatreducingtheimpactsofclimatechangeontheregion’sbiodiversity,primarilythroughadaptiveresponses.Thiswillbeachievedthroughinsituconservationofspeciesandecologicalcommunitiesbyfacilitatingtheirnaturaladaptationbymeansofimprovingtheoverallecologicalresilienceoftheregion.
4.1 ResilienceEcologicalresiliencecanbedefinedasthecapacityofanecosystemtotolerateorrecoverfromdisturbancewithoutcollapsing.Aresilientecosystemcanwithstandshocksandrebuilditselfwhennecessary.Forecosystemstopersistinthelong-term,successfulrecoveryafterdisturbanceisfundamental.Naturalsystemsarecharacterisedbyenvironmentalthresholdsthat,ifcrossed,mayleadtolarge-scaleandrelativelyabruptshiftsinstate,includingchangesinecosystemprocessesandstructure[37,38].Onceathresholdiscrossedandashiftinstateorakeyprocessoccurs,itmaybedifficult,orevenimpossible,toreversetheshift.
Amajorbenefitofmanagingnaturalsystemsforoverallresilienceisthatitprovidesthebestgeneralinsuranceagainstcurrentandemergingthreats[38,
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39].Itisinevitablethatcurrentlyunrecognisedthreatswillemergewithintheregion,sothebestlong-termmanagementstrategyistoaimforasystemwiththeresiliencetorecoverfromaswidearangeofanticipatedchallengesaspossible.Factorscontributingtoecologicalresilienceinclude:
Biological diversity• –Ecologicalsystemswithhighbiologicaldiversitywillgenerallyhavegreaterinherentresilience,largelybecausetheywillhavemorediverseresponsesandcapacitiesavailabletothem,whichcanprovidethebasisforadaptation[40].Diversityofhabitatsalsoincreasesthelikelihoodofsomehabitatsbeingmoreresilienttoimpactsfromparticularstressesordisturbances[40].
Connectivity• –Connectivityreferstotheextentoftheconnectionsbetweenpopulations.Thecapacityofnaturalsystemstorecoverafteradisturbance,ortoreorganiseinthefaceofneworintensifiedpressures,dependstoalargeextentontheabilityofplantandanimalpopulationsandecologicalprocessestodisperseormoveacrossthelandscape.
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Refugia• –Refugiaareareaswithinthelandscapewhereecosystemsarebufferedfrompressuresordisturbancesthatwouldotherwiseresultinreducedresilienceelsewhere.Refugiaserveassecuresourceareaswhichareimportantforthereplenishmentofdisturbedpopulationsandserveassteppingstonesformaintainingpopulationconnectivityacrosslargerscales.Importantfeaturesofrefugiaincludeadequateextenttoprovidesufficientsourcepopulationsandinclusionofadiverseandcomprehensivesampleofmanydifferenthabitattypes.
Conservingorcreatinggreaterlandscapeconnectivitybetweenareasrichinbiodiversity,inconjunctionwithrefugia,providesgreateropportunitiesforspeciesandecologicalprocessestorecover,re-establishandrelocateortoadaptandevolve.Thefollowingfoursectionsoutlinearangeofpracticalstepsthattheregioncantaketohelpachieveamoreresilientnaturalenvironment.
4.2 Regional planning, coordination and leadership
4.2.1 Integrating climate change into managementRespondingtoclimatechangeisunlikelytosucceedifitisdoneinisolationfromotherlandmanagementactivitiesandotheragenciesinvolvedinlandmanagement.Theclimatechangechallengeisoccurringatallscales,fromspeciestocatchmenttolandscapescales,andacrossindustries,propertyboundariesandlandtenures.Foraregionalresponsetobemeaningful,allthoseaffectedneedtobebroughttogethertodeliverintegratedapproachestonaturalresourceandlandmanagementproblems.Thismustinvolvegovernmentagencies,industriesandregionalcommunities.
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Manymanagementresponsestoclimatechange,suchaspestmanagementandcreatingwildlifecorridors,arealreadybeingundertakentoenhanceWetTropicsconservation.Suchconservationactivitieswillbecomemoreurgentandprioritiesmayalterinthelightofclimatechangetoensureadditionalenvironmentalorsocioeconomicbenefits.
What can be done?DevelopaWetTropicsBioregional•ClimateChangeActionPlanaimedatconservingtheoutstandinguniversalvaluesandintegrityoftheAreaandthebiodiversityoftheoverallregion.
Coordinatewithclimatechange•responsesinothersectorssuchasurbanandregionalplanning,wateruse,coastalmanagementandGreatBarrierReefplanningandmanagement.
Developandimplementa•communicationsstrategytoraiseawarenessofclimatechangeimpactsandtheadvantagesofearlyattentiontoadaptation.
4.2.2 Coordination and alignmentClimatechangethreatswillintroducearangeofsocialandethicalissuesthatwillneedtobeaddressed.Acommonapproachbyregionallandmanagementorganisationsandtheresearchcommunitywillhavebenefits.
What can be done?ContinuetodeveloptheNorthQueenslandClimateAllianceasanetworkof•climatechangeinterestgroupsataregionallevel.
SupportthebidbyJamesCookUniversity’sCentreforTropical•BiodiversityandClimateChangetohosttheNationalClimateChangeAdaptationResearchFacility-TerrestrialBiodiversityHubinTownsville.Thisfacilitywouldestablishanational/internationalnetworkofclimatechangeinterestgroups.
Wet Tropics coastline
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PromotetheWetTropicsConservationStrategy[49]asthesourceof•conservationprioritiesforregionallandandenvironmentdecision-makers.
4.2.3 Reducing emissionsAnauditofgreenhousegasemissionscommissionedbytheAuthorityin2007[48]showedthatpercapitaemissionsintheWetTropics(23.6tonnesCO2orequivalent)in2005weresignificantlylowerthanaverageemissionsforQueenslandandAustralia.However,theyremained70%greaterthanaverageemissionsforindustrialisedcountriessubjecttoemissiontargetsundertheKyotoProtocol.LowstationaryenergyemissionsintheWetTropicsweredueprimarilytohydro,windandbagassepowerandtheabsenceofenergyintensiveindustries.Higherthanaveragetransportemissionswerepartlyduetouseofaviationfuel.AsinmanyotherareasofAustralia,localresidentsareincreasinglyawareoftheneedtoconserveresourcesanduselessenergy.Thereareecologicalandsocioeconomicbenefitsfromwiseandsparinguseofenergyandournaturalassetssuchaswaterandforests.
What can be done?Usetheregionalgreenhouse•gasauditasabaselineforfuturemonitoringofemissions.
Provideregionalleadershipin•measurestoreducegreenhousegasemissions.
PromotetheCitiesforClimate•Protectionprograminregionalcouncils.
Launch of the Wet Tropics greenhouse gas emissions audit
Wind farm at Ravenshoe
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4.2.4 Planning and developmentTheFarNorthQueenslandDraftRegionalPlan2025[11]promotesastronger,moreliveableandsustainablecommunity.Itacknowledgesthatthelikelyimpactsofclimatechangearesignificantfortheregion’senvironment,economyandcommunities.TherehasbeenstrongcommunitysupportforbiodiversityconservationintheregionandtheneedforwildlifecorridorsthatwillhelptobuildresilienceintheWetTropicslandscape.
What can be done?SupportimplementationofpoliciesintheFNQDraftRegionalPlan2025•[11]thatwillhelptomitigategreenhouseemissionsandsupportmeasurestobuildenvironmentalandcommunityresilience.
Ensurethatclimatechangeimpactsareconsideredinallmajorplanningand•developmentdecisions.
4.2.5 Wet Tropics tourismTheregion’seconomyreliesheavilyonasustainablenaturebasedtourismindustry.TheprincipalnaturalresourcesonwhichthisindustrydependsaretheWTQWHAandtheGreatBarrierReefWorldHeritageArea.TheimpactofclimatechangeonthesetwoWorldHeritageAreasastouristattractionshasthepotentialtosignificantlyaffectthetourismindustry,withconsequentialsocialandeconomicimpacts.
What can be done?Supportregionalcleanandgreeninitiativesbythetourismindustry.•
Supportmovesbythetourismindustrytobuildrainforestresilienceand•promotegreentourismthroughtheuseofregionalbiodiversityoffsets.
Clearing for development, Mission Beach
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Developregional•adaptationstrategiesfornaturebasedtourism.
Continuetoassess•theimpactsofclimatechangeontourismandtourismvalues(physical,socialandeconomic)andontherelativeimpactofclimatechangeonthedifferentformsoftourism.
4.2.6 Maximising carbon market opportunitiesWithcarbontradingproposednationallyforAustralia,significantopportunitiesexistforbiodiversityconservationtobejointlyplannedforaspartofproposalsforthebiosequestrationofcarbon.Opportunitiesforcombininggreenhouseandbiodiversityobjectivesrangefromtheselectionofnativespeciesmixesforforestplantationestablishmenttothecreationofstrategiccorridors,therestorationoflandscapeconnectivityandthebufferingofintactnaturalareas.Thesemultipleenvironmentalbenefitscouldhaveadditionalcorporateappealintermsofdisplayingacompany’scommitmenttobroaderenvironmentalprotection.
What can be done?Explorethespectrumofcarbontradingandothereconomicincentives•whichareavailabletohelpachieveorfundeffectiveclimateadaptationresponsestobuildresiliencefortheWTQWHA.
Daintree River cruise
Daintree Cassowary Care Group
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4.3 Improving and communicating our knowledge of the effects of climate change
4.3.1 Building regional capability and reducing uncertaintyWhiletheWetTropicsregionisrecognisedasbeingaleaderinclimatechangeresearchforthetwoWorldHeritageAreas,thereremainsubstantialgapsinourknowledgeofclimatechange,itsimpactsandappropriateresponsestotheseimpacts.Thereisalsoaneedtoimprovethesynthesisanddisseminationofinformationsothatitismorerelevantandunderstandabletodecision-makersandthegeneralcommunity.Keycomponentsofadaptivecapacityincludetheabilitytogenerate,accessandinterpretinformationaboutclimatechangeanditslikelyimpacts;suitablemethodsforidentifyingandassessingpotentialadaptationstrategies;adequatefinancialandotherresources;andawillingnesstoadapt.
Theregion’sscientistshavegeneratedanimpressivebaseofinformationabouthowtheclimateischangingandthebroadphysicalimpactsthesechangesmayhave.However,theAuthority,othergovernmentagenciesandthecommunityrequireimprovedinformationabouttheprojectionsofclimatechange,particularlyofextremeeventsandtheirimpactupontheArea’svaluesandintegrity.
What can be done?Supportresearchandeducational•institutionswhichplacerainforestandreefWorldHeritagemanagementissuesandconcernshighontheirresearchandteachingagendas.
SupporttheCSIROandJamesCook•UniversityprojectsfundedthroughMTSRFwhicharestartingtoprovideclimatechangeprojectionsandregionalscenariosatscalesrelevanttodecision-makers.
Increaseandpromotepostgraduate•researchonthethermaltolerancesofthreatenedspeciesandonpossiblemitigationmeasures.
Developimprovedregionalclimate•changeprojections,extremeclimateeventprojectionsandimprovedregionalclimatemodellinganddownscalingtechniques.
Researcher at work
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4.3.2 Understanding social resilienceSocialandeconomictrendsthataffecttheregion’svulnerabilitytoclimatechangeandthesocialandeconomicimpactsofclimatechangeontheregionareverypoorlyunderstood.Itisimportantforfacilitatingsocialandeconomicresiliencethattheregionsupportsmoresocialresearch.
What can be done?Collectandanalysesocialandeconomicdataandtrendstoassesshowthese•factorsarelikelytoinfluencevulnerabilitytoclimatechange.
Identifysocialandeconomiccostsofclimatechangeandmanagement•responseoptions,includingthecostofnottakingadaptationaction.
4.3.3 Establishment of climate change research centresUniversitiesandresearchinstitutionshaveaspecialroletoplayineducatingandbuildingregionalcapacitythroughestablishingcentresforclimateresearch,fosteringinternationalnetworksofcollaboratingscientistsandinstitutions,andprovidingtrainingandcareerdevelopmentopportunitiesforyoungscientists.
Theresearchcapabilityoftheregionhasincreasedsignificantlyinthelastdecade,especiallywithrespecttoresearchontheimpactsofclimatechangeonbiodiversityandecosystemprocesses.However,thereisstillaneedforfurtherresearchonclimatechangeimpactsintheWetTropicsandhowtointegratethisresearchintothemanagementofthreateningprocessessuchasfragmentation,pestsandfire.Thisincludestheneedtoidentifycriticalthresholdsfornaturalecosystemsandapproachestoincreasingtheirresiliencetotheimpactsofclimatechange.
ArecentbidbyJamesCookUniversitytoestablishanational‘CentreforClimateChangeAdaptation’wouldprovideabroaderexaminationofthesocial,economic,
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agriculturalandenvironmentalimpactsofclimatechangeandhowbesttomanagethem.Thiswouldcoordinateandintegrateresearchanddecision-makingaboutclimatechangeimpactsonvariouscommunitysectors.Thecentremayalsobecomeafundingbodytobrokerresearchpartnershipsanddevelopnewresearch.
What can be done?Supportanexpansionofthe•establishedregionalresearchbaseintoaninternationalhubforresearchintoclimatechangeanditsimpactsonterrestrial,aquaticandestuarineecosystemsandbiodiversity.
Supportthebidtoestablish•aCentreforClimateChangeAdaptationintheWetTropics.
Incorporatetheimplicationsofclimatechangeintoexistingregional•managementplans,strategies,guidelinesandpolicies.
4.3.4 Monitoring Monitoringclimate,climateimpactsandmanagementresponsesiscriticalgivenclimatechangeentailssomanyuncertainties.Monitoringisnecessarytodetectpopulationchangesandspeciesdeclinesorincreases.Monitoringshouldfocusonspeciesatspecialrisk,butbeflexibleenoughtodetectotherchanges.
Theclimatechange/biodiversitymonitoringplotswhichhavebeenestablishedintheWetTropicsbyJamesCookUniversityandCSIROresearchers,withfundingfromMTSRF,SmartStateandothersources,hasprovidedAustraliawithanopportunitytojoinaworldwidenetworkofrainforestmonitoringplots.TheWetTropicsplotnetworkhasthepotentialtoprovidethemostcomprehensivestudyofbiologicalcommunitieseverundertakeninAustralia.Theynotonlyprovidethebaselineforlong-termmonitoringforaverylargeproportionofallthespeciesandbioclimatesintheWetTropics,butalsoalargeproportionofQueensland’sandAustralia’stotalbiodiversity.
TheWetTropicshasthepotentialtobecomeacentralhubofaglobalnetworkofbiodiversity/climatechangemonitoringsites.Fromatopographicalandclimaticbasis,Queensland’sWetTropicshasaffinitieswithuplandtropicalforestlocalitiesintheupperreachesoftheAmazonandCongobasinsandintheuplandsoftheeastcoastofMadagascar,BrazilandNewGuinea[2,41].Together,theseforests
Setting up data loggers in boulder fields
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containaverylargeproportionoftheworld’stotalbiodiversity.However,whatsetstheWetTropicsapartisthatitcontainstropicalrainforestsattheirlatitudinalandclimaticlimits.ThispotentiallymakestheAreaanearlywarningsiteforalertingothervulnerabletropicalforesthotspotstotheemergingeffectsofclimatechange.
What can be done?Supporttheestablishedregionalclimatechange/biodiversitymonitoring•programsbeingundertakenbyJamesCookUniversityandCSIRO.
Expandthescopeofthismonitoringtofurtherdevelopmethodstoassess•andmonitorspecies,communitiesandecosystemsoverthelong-term;monitorecosystemresponsetohelpdevelopandverifypredictivemodels;measureresponsestomanagementactions;andassesswhetherthestrategiesareeffectiveinprotectingbiodiversityandecosystemfunction.
Advocatefortheincreaseduseanddevelopmentofremotesensingmethods•formonitoringsuchastheuseofsatellitetechnology,non-destructivetechniquesandtheuseofsimulationtoolstopredicttheimpactofclimatechange.
4.4 On-ground works to improve forest healthThefollowingoutlinesarangeofactionsthatcanbeimplementedtoincreasetheecologicalresilienceoftheregion’snaturalsystems.Manyarerelevantforimplementationatbothlargeandsmallscales,buttheirefficacywillbeincreasediftheyarepartofacoordinatedeffortbyalllandandnaturalresourcemanagers.
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4.4.1 Managing environmental stress created by climate change
Existing threatsClimatechangewillinteractwithmanyexistingthreatstotheoutstandinguniversalvaluesandintegrityoftheWTQWHAandothernaturalandsemi-naturalareasoftheregion,resultinginevengreaternegativeimpactsontheenvironment.Reducingotherexistingthreatsorpressurestobiodiversitywillhelpbuildresilienceintonaturalsystemsandspecies.Naturalsystemsthatarealreadystressedorsufferingfrommultiplepressuresaremorelikelytosuccumbtotheadditionalstressesofimpactsbyclimatechange.
Invasive speciesInvasivepestspeciesaregenerallyexpectedtobeclimatechangewinnersbecausetheytendtobecolonisersoradaptableopportunistsandareamongthefirsttooccupyneworexpandingenvironmentalnichesafterdisturbanceorwithinstressedecosystems.Aparticularchallengeinthisareaisthepotentialfor‘sleeper’weedsandferalanimalstobegintoexpandtheirrangesuddenlyanddramaticallyinresponsetoevenmoderateshiftsinclimateorinresponsetochangesinthefrequencyofextremeeventssuchasfiresorcyclones.
PrioritytargetsforeradicationeffortsshouldbethosespeciesthathaveahighpotentialtoinvadetheAreaandthosethatarecurrentlyrareincultivationandrareinthewild.Invasiveintroducedgrassesareanothergroupofweedsthatjustifyspecialattention.Introducedflammablegrassesarealreadyaseriousenvironmentalthreatevenwithoutconsideringclimatechange.Guineagrassandmolassesgrass,forexample,growtallerthannativegrassesandalsogrowinmuchthickerstandspreventingnativetreerecruitment,bothbyshadingouttheirseedlingsandfuellinghotfiresthatdestroythem.
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FireLandmanagerswillneedtoacceptthatanewclimateregimemaybringapermanentchangetofireregimesforvariousnativeecosystemsthroughoutthenon-rainforestedpartsoftheregion.Regionallandmanagerswillneedtoconsiderinvestingmoreinfiremanagementtoreflectanyincreasedfireriskandidentifyandprotectfirerefugiawherenaturalfireregimescanfeasiblyberetained.
What can be done?Reduceother(non-climate)environmentalpressures.•
Eradicatenewlyemerginginvasivepestspeciesandcontrolorcontainmore•widespreadinvasiveplant,animalanddiseaseoutbreaks.
Assessandmodeltheimplicationsandsynergiesbetweenclimatechange,•firemanagementandecosystemalterations.
4.4.2 Managing landscape health in the face of climate change
Landscape connectivityConnectivityreferstothemaintenanceorrestorationofkey,large-scaleecologicalphenomena,flows,andprocessescriticaltothelong-termconservationofbiodiversity[42].Thismayrangefromlarge-scaleecologicalprocessessuchaswatercyclesandflowregimestothetransferofgenesfromlowlandareastouplandareas.Animportantconnectivityprocesswithrespecttoclimatechangeistheroleofdispersivespecies.Dispersivespeciesarethosespeciesthatarecapable
Controlled burn
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oftravellinglargedistancesandmaybeimportantinmovingpollenandseedoverlargedistances.Whilethecapacityofdispersivespeciesforlongdistancetravelwillbeadvantageousinthefaceofclimatechange,habitatfragmentationanddegradationmaypresentsignificantbarrierstospeciesthatmayneedtomovetonewhabitatsandrefugia.
Ecological corridorsAwildlifecorridorreferstoaswathoflandorawatercourseintendedtoallowpassagebyidentifiedwildlifespeciesbetweentwoormoreforestedareas.Wildlifecorridorsaregenerallyconsideredatalocalscaleandforindividualspecies.Theirprimarypurposeistolinkotherwiseseparatedpopulationsandformitigatingotherimpactsofhabitatfragmentationonwildlifepopulations[43,44].Designingacorridornetworkinvolvesidentifyingspecificlandsthatwillbestmaintaintheabilityofwildlifetomovebetweenforestedblocks,eveniftheremaininglandbecomesinhospitabletowildlifemovement.Climatechangeaddsgreatlytotherationaleforconservingorcreatingecologicalcorridors.Althoughthemostimportantcorridorsarethosethatrunlongdistancesorwhichcaptureanaltitudinalgradient[45],allcorridorspromotegeneticexchangeandlinkpopulations,whichinturnfostersadaptationtoclimatechange.Strengtheningandextendingnetworksofcorridorsbyplantingtreeswillalsoprovideacarbonsink.Aregionalcorridornetworkwillbenefitandincreasetheresilienceofmanyspeciesofwildlifeandvegetationcommunitiesbymitigatingsomeofthedetrimentalecologicalimpactsarisingfromsurroundinglandusesandbyprovidingconduitsthroughwhich:
wildlifecandispersefrom•areaswhichhavereachedmaximumcarryingcapacityand/orcompetition,andrecoloniseotherfavourablehabitats,potentiallyimprovingtheresilienceofapopulationtostress
wildlifecanfolloworescape•localorlonger-termseasonalchangesinenvironmentalconditions
wildlifecanaccesspreviously•separatedpopulationswithwhichbreedingmaytakeplace,bettermaintainingandpossiblyimprovinggeneticvariability.
Cassowary
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RefugiaInevolutionaryterms,refugiaarepartsofthelandscapeinwhichcertaintypesorsuitesoforganismsareabletopersistduringperiodsinwhichmostoftheiroriginalgeographicrangebecomesuninhabitablebecauseofclimaticchange.Theresultingrefugiacontainhighfrequenciesofendemicspeciesbecausethespeciesinthemtendtorespondtothecontractionofrangebyevolvingdifferencesfromtheiroriginal,widespreadstock[46].
Refugia,therefore,areimportantastheyrepresentthoseareaswherefavourablehabitatwillpersistordevelopastheclimatechanges.Asconditionsoutsiderefugiabecomehostilewithchangingclimate,aspecieswillbelostfromthewiderrangeandpersistlargelyintherefugia.Locationsthathaveservedasrefugiaduringpastclimatechangesmayserveasrefugiaforthepresentperiodofclimatechange.However,refugiamayalsodevelopoutsideofthecurrentrangeofaspeciesasclimatezonesshiftandecosystemsshiftwiththem.Inthiscase,itwillbecrucialtoalsoidentifyandprotectthesenewrefugiaandmigrationcorridorstothem.
Habitat replicationReplicate,securehabitatsareavitalformofinsuranceastheyprotectmultiplesourcepopulations,climaterefugiaandmigrationcorridors.Thesmallerandmoreisolatedahabitat,themorelikelyitistolosespeciesovertimeandthemorevulnerableitistostressfuleventssuchascyclones,droughts,firesorfloods.Withsufficienthabitatreplication,aspecieshasagreaterlikelihoodofremainingviablewithagreatercapacitytoadapttoenvironmentalchange.AlthoughtheWTQWHAcapturesagreatdiversityofhabitats,refugiaandmigrationcorridorsduetoitspossessionofsignificantenvironmentalgradients,therearemanylowlandandtablelandhabitatsthatarepoorlyrepresentedwithintheArea.
Bellenden Ker mountaintop vegetation
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What can be done?Maintainandenhancelandscape-scaleecologicalconnectivity.•
Identify,conserveandcreatewildlifecorridors.•
Identifyandprotectclimaticallystablerefugia.•
Ensurehabitats,speciesandotherenvironmentalvaluesarereplicatedinthe•protectedareaestatewhereverfeasible.
Increaselandscapeandhabitatheterogeneitywithinprotectedareas,•includingaltitudinal,latitudinal,topographicandvegetationdiversity.
4.4.3 Ecological site management
Tree plantingsOneofthebiggestopportunitiestoimprovelandscapeconditionandconnectivityisthroughprogramsofstrategictreeplantingsandhabitatrestoration.Frombothabiodiversityandnaturalresourcemanagementperspective,riparianrevegetationisahighpriorityasithasmultipleenvironmentalandeconomicbenefitssuchasstabilisingstreambanks,filteringrunoff,shadingstreams(thuskeepingwatertemperatureswithintheirnaturalrange),andcontributingtothefoodwebforin-streambiota.Replantingschemesalsoofferopportunitiesforreintroducinggenestoisolatedpopulations,increasingthepopulationsizeofthreatenedspeciesandprovidingkeystoneresourcestoincreasetheecologicalfunctionalityofwildlifecorridors.
Revegetation
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Thermal refuge sitesEcologistsusetheterm‘refuge’tomeanalocationinwhichaspeciesorsuiteofspeciescanpersistforshortperiodswhenlargepartsoftheirpreferredhabitatsbecomeuninhabitablebecauseofunsuitableclimaticorecologicalconditions.
Deepgullies,rockoutcropsandsouth-facingslopesarelandscapefeaturesthataregenerallycoolerthantheirsurroundings,therebyprovidingsitesthatofferthermalrelief.Specialconsiderationandpriorityshouldbegiventotheseandotherlandscapefeaturesthatcreateamildmicroclimate.Habitatscanalsobeenhancedtoincreasecoolmicroclimates.Forexample,riparianvegetationcanberestoredtoshadewatercourses,logsandrocksinstalledaspartofrevegetationprojectsorinsemi-naturalareastoprovidecoolsitestoassistnativespecies.Ingeneral,treeplantingssignificantlycoolandinsulatesites.Thelossofshadyriparianvegetation,siltingupofdeeppoolsandtheloweringofwaterlevelsallleadtohigherstreamtemperaturesthatmaybeintolerableforsomeaquaticwildlife.Improvingstreamhabitatqualitymightincludethemaintenanceofcoolingfeaturessuchastherestorationofripariancoverorrestrictionsonwaterextraction.
What can be done?Revegetateclearedanddegradedareas.•
Identify,conserve,createandenhancecoolclimaterefuges/siteswithinthe•landscape.
Identify,conserveandcreateaquaticrefuges.•
Pho
to: K
erry
Tra
pnel
l
Thornton Peak
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4.4.4 Species management
Species at risk AlargeproportionofthespeciesidentifiedinthelistingoftheWTQWHAashavingoutstandinganduniversalvaluehaveoneormoreofarangeofcharacteristics.Theyare:
restrictedtohigh-altitudeenvironments•
havesmalland/orisolatedorboundeddistributions•
havesmallrestrictedranges•
havepoordispersalcapabilities•
arephysiologicallysusceptibletoextremetemperatures•
areconsideredtopossessextremehabitat/nichespecialisation•
showclose,co-evolved,orsynchronousrelationshipswithotherspecies•
displayinflexiblephysiologicalresponsestoclimaticvariables•
areatthelimitsoftheirlatitudinaloraltitudinalrange.•
Insomecasesitislikelythatclimaterefugiaorcorehabitatscannotbemaintained,areunlikelytopersist,ormigrationmaynotbepossible.
Key functional groups Recoveryprocessesarefrequentlyhighlysensitivetodisturbance,highlightingtheimportanceofidentifyingandprotectingthefunctionsthatareessentialforrecovery.Onefunctionofcentralimportancetotheresilienceofrainforestecosystemsisdispersal,particularlyseedandpollendispersal.
Spotted-tailed quoll
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Theconservationoflong-rangeseeddispersalandpollinatorfaunaisimportanttopromotegeneticadaptation.Sometreeshavehighlymobilepollinatorsandthetransferofpollenfromwarmeradaptedand/ormorestresstolerantpopulationsofaspeciestolesswelladaptedortolerantindividualswillhelpthemproduceoffspringbetteradaptedforawarmerormoreenvironmentallystressfulfuture.
WhiletheimportanceofdispersaltothefunctioningofWetTropicsrainforestecosystemshasbeenafocusofresearchinrecentyears,manyotherspeciesgroupsarealsolikelytoplayanimportantroleinresilience.Althoughlessstudied,highertrophicspeciessuchaspredatorsexertimportanttop-downcontrolsontrophicsystems.Thesepredators,whichgenerallyrequirelargeterritoriesforsurvival,selectivelyremoveindividualsfrompreypopulationsthatarelesswelladaptedtotheirenvironment.Withoutthisselectivepressure,itispossiblethatmanylower-trophicspecieswilltakelongertoadapttochangesinconditionsassociatedwithclimatechange.
TranslocationsTranslocationofspeciesoutsidetheirnaturalrangeentailsrisks.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange[47]warnsthat‘movingspeciestoadapttothechangingclimatezonesisfraughtwithscientificuncertainties.Theconsequencesofinvasiveorganismscannotbepredicted;manysurpriseswouldbeexpected.’Becauseoftheinherentrisks,translocationisidentifiedhereasapolicyoflastresort,assomethingtoaddressinthefuture,exceptperhapswiththeselectionofprovenancesoftreesforreplantingprojects.Translocationassumesthat:
appropriatehosthabitatsareavailable,correctlyidentifiedandwillnotbe•disrupted
ecologicalrelationshipsarefullyunderstoodandcanbecateredfor•
resourceswillbeavailableforallindividualsofthetranslocatedandresident•species.
Massplantingsbasedonclimaticpredictionsassumecompleteclimaticandbiologicalknowledge,whichisusuallylacking.Plantingsshouldfocusonkeyareassuchasriparianstripswherenaturalresiliencehasbeenlost.Elsewhere,naturalregeneration,perhapsinconjunctionwithweedcontrol,islikelytobeamoreeffectiveapproachtorecoveringresilienceoverlargeareas.Incontrasttoplantings,naturalregrowthcanbeachievedoverlargeareas,islesscostly,andselectsforgenotypesadaptedtotheprevailingclimatetrends.
Pho
to: M
ike
Tren
erry
Spectacled flying fox
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Captive breeding and cultivationCaptivebreedingpopulationscouldbeestablishedforspeciesathighriskofextinction.Botanicgardensandherbariacouldplayaroleinthepreservationofspeciesandgeneticmaterialovertimeandcouldplayanimportantroleineducatingthepublicaboutclimatechangeimpacts.
What can be done?Identifysignificantspeciesatriskandplantheirrecoveryandresearchneeds.•
Identify,conserveandencouragekeyfunctionalgroupssuchaslong-range•animaldispersalvectors(seedandpollen).
Developpoliciesandguidelinesregardingthetranslocationofspecies(asa•lastresort).
4.5 Increasing community awareness and mobilising behavioural changeCommunityinvolvementwillbevitaltoameliorateclimatechangeimpactsandreducegreenhousegasemissionsintheWetTropics[49].Whilethepotentialimpactsmaybesevere,theWetTropicsisalsofortunatetohavesignificantcapacitytoreduceemissionsandcreateahealthyandresilientlandscape.Theregionisalsowellplacedtopotentiallybenefitecologicallyandeconomicallyfromcarbonoffsetsthroughtreeplantingprogramswithexceptionallyhighbiodiversityvalue.
Tree planters from TREAT
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Community awareness TheAuthorityandarangeofothergovernmentagenciesandcommunitygroupsactivelypromotepubliceducationaboutclimatechangeandhowitsimpactsmaybeaddressed.Communityeducationpromotesthebenefitsofbiodiversityconservationforthecommunity’squalityoflife.Itrangesfromgeneralpublicawarenessabouttheneedtoreduceenergyandresourceusetotheneedtoincorporatebiodiversityconservationintoasustainableregionalcommunity.Forinstance,manyschoolshaveadoptedprogramstominimiseelectricityuseattheschoolandarealsoplantingtreesorbuildingwetlandsinthegroundstoattractwildlife.Landholdersarealsotargetedforeducationabouthowtocontrolweedsandferalanimals,fenceanimalsoutofareasrichinbiodiversityorplanttreestopreventerosionandpromotehabitatforwildlife.
Community engagementTheWetTropicsConservationStrategy[49]advocatescooperativemanagementandcommunityengagementtoaddresspressuresontheWTQWHA.ThereisalreadyastronglocalcultureofconservationandsupportfortheWetTropicsandGreatBarrierReefWorldHeritageAreas.Largesectorsofthecommunityarealreadyactivelyengagedinconservationmeasuressuchasplantingwildlifecorridors,wildlifecareandweedcontrol.Suchactivitiesarenotrestrictedtoconservationistsandnowincludesuchdiversegroupsasprimaryproducers,thetourismindustry,infrastructureproviders,RainforestAboriginalpeopleandlocalbusinesses[49].Forinstance,thecreationoftheBarronRiverGreenCorridor
Media relations
Climate Alliance brochure
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Projecthasbeenfundedandimplementedbyalllevelsofgovernmentandarangeofbusinesses,landholdersandvolunteers.Increasingly,localresidentsareseeingthesocialandeconomicbenefitsthatflowfromcommunityconservation.Themajorityofthesemeasuresarealsovitaltohelpaddressclimatechangeimpacts.
What can be done?Continuetoraiseawarenessofclimatechangeandadaptationoptions.•
Developanddistributeeducationalmaterialspecificallyaboutclimate•changeanditsimpactsontheWetTropics.
Enhanceexistingcommunitycapacitytoundertakeconservationworksto•reconnecthabitatandcontrolweedsandferalanimals.
Ensurecommunityinvolvementinregionalplanning.•
Provideincentivesforlandholderstoengageinbiodiversityconservationon•privatelands.
Facilitate,supportandchampioncoordinatedactiononadaptationinvolving•landmanagers,communitiesandgovernmentagencies.
Supportandchampioninitiativestoincreaseregionalcapacitytodealwith•thechallenge.
Promotecommunityinvolvementinclimatechangeandconservation•research.
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5. References[1] DASETT(1987).Nomination of the Wet Tropical Rainforests of North-
east Australia by the Government of Australia for Inclusion in the World Heritage List.DepartmentofArts,Sport,theEnvironment,TourismandTerritories.Canberra.December1987.
[2] WTMA(2003).Periodic Report on the Application of the World Heritage Convention.SectionII.StateofConservationofSpecificWorldHeritageProperties.WetTropicsofQueensland.Attachment1:UpdateofOriginalNominationDossier.WetTropicsManagementAuthority.Cairns
[3] Colette,A.(ed.)(2007).Climate Change and World Heritage: Report on predicting and managing the impacts of climate change on World Heritage and Strategy to assist States Parties to implement appropriate management responses.UNESCOWorldHeritageCentre,Paris.
[4] UNESCO(2006).Strategy to Assist States Parties to Implement Appropriate Management Responses.UNESCOWorldHeritageCentre,Paris.
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[13] ReefandRainforestResearchCentre(RRRC).http://www.rrrc.org.au/about/index.html
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[26] Howden,M.,Ash,A.,Barlow,S.,Booth,T.,Charles,S.,Cechet,R.,Crimp,S.,Gifford,R.,Hennessy,K.,Jones,R.,Kirschbaum,M.,McKeon,G.,Meinke,H.,Park,S.,Sutherst,R.,Webb,L.&Whetton,P.(2003).An overview of the adaptive capacity of the Australian agricultural sector to climate change – options, costs and benefits.CSIROSustainableEcosystems,Canberra.
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[39] Folke,C.,Carpenter,S.,Walker,B.,Scheffer,M.,Elmqvist,T.,Gunderson,L.&Holling,C.S.(2004).Regimeshifts,resilience,andbiodiversityinecosystemmanagement.Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 35:557–581.
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[46] Brown,J.H.&Gibson,A.C.(1983).Biogeography.C.V.MosbyCompany,St.LouisMO.
[47] Gitay,H.,Suarez,A.,Watson,R.T.,Dokken,D.J.(2002).Climate change and biodiversity.IntergovernmentalpanelonclimatechangeIPCCTechnicalPaperV.
[48]MarsdenJacobAssociates(2007)Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Wet Tropics Region: A Preliminary Inventory,Cairns.
[49] WTMA(2004).Wet Tropics Conservation Strategy: the conservation, rehabilitation and transmission to future generations of the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area.WetTropicsManagementAuthority,Cairns.
[50] OfficeofClimateChange(2008).Climate Change in Queensland: What the science is telling us.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency.Brisbane.
[51] Heath,Lance(2008)Garnaut Climate Change Review - Impacts of climate change on Australia’s World Heritage properties and their values.ANUInstituteforEnvironment.AustralianNationalUniversity,Canberra.Athttp://www.garnautreport.org.au/draft.htm.
[52] CommonwealthofAustralia(2008)Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Green Paper.DepartmentofClimateChange,Canberra.Athttp://www.climatechange.gov.au/greenpaper/report/index.html.
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