Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity in Jordan: Perspectives for Future

Prepared by:Batir WardamCarboun Public EventRoad to Doha 2012Amman 6-6-2012

Climate Change: Why We Should CareClimate Change is facing usCan we cope?

Yesproved by history

Are Climate Skeptics Right? NOOO

Cultures of Middle East were shaped by climate pressuresBut future climate change is more difficult to deal with.National borders limits migrations.Over-population The region's emissions of greenhouse gases are less than 5 percent of the world's total. But emissions from the Middle East and North Africa surged 88 percent from 1990 to 2004, the third-largest rise in the world and more than three times the world averagePer capita greenhouse gas emissions vary widely across the region with extremely high rates for several oil and gas producers. Qatar had the world's highest per capita emissions, with 56.2 tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2006What to expect? Magnifying existing problems Water Resources: Reduced water flow in the fertile crescentSea Level Rise: a sea level rise of only 1 metre would directly impact 41,500km2 of the Arab coastal lands. The most serious impacts of sea level rise would be in Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE.The effects on the regions agricultural sector would mostly be felt in Egypt, where a 1 metre rise would put 12% of the countrys agricultural land at risk. Itwould also directly affect 3.2% of the population in the Arab countries, compared to a global percentage of about 1.28%.Health: changes in geographical ranges of disease vectors like mosquitoes, waterborne pathogens, water quality, air quality and food availability and quality. Incidence of infectious diseases like malaria and schistosomiasis will increase, mainly in Egypt, Morocco and Sudan. Malaria, which already infects 3 million people annually in the Arab region, will become more prevalentImpacts on the Arab WorldFood Security: Higher temperatures, lower rainfall and alteration in the span of seasons will require developing new varieties that can adapt to the emerging conditions.Crops which need less water and can withstand higher levels of salinity should be developed and introduced on a large scaleTourism: An increase of between 1-4C in average temperature will cause a drastic decline in the index of tourism comfort all over the region. Areas classified between good and excellent are likely to become marginal to unfavourable by the year 2080, mainly because of hotter summers, extreme weather events, water scarcity and ecosystems degradation.

Biodiversity: 2C rise in temperature will make extinct up to 40% of all the species. The Arab countries have many unique formations that are especially vulnerable to climate change risk, such as the cedar forests in Lebanon and Syria, the mangroves in Qatar, the reed marshes of Iraq, the high mountain ranges of Yemen and Oman, and the coastal mountain ranges of the Red Sea.Land use and urban Planning: An estimated 75% of buildings and infrastructure in the region are at direct risk of climate change impacts, mainly from sea level rise, higher intensity and frequency of hot days and storm surges. Reliability of transportation systems, water supply and wastewater networks, and energy generation stations will be at riskImpacts on JordanThree main developmental trends stand out to define the sustainability challenges for Jordan. The country is the 4th most water poor in the world with an average per capita water availability of 145 cubic meters. Moreover, Jordan imports 96% of its energy requirements translating into a bill of 20% of GDP when oil prices are ate peak. Jordan is highly susceptible to fluctuations of food commodity prices and in a future expected to be dominated by food crises Jordan will be hit hard by such consequences.

Emissions Analysis: 2000 baseline, 20.14 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2 equivalent (CO2 eq.) of GHGs to the atmosphereSources: Energy 74%, Industry 7.9%, Waste 13.5%, and landuse change 3.7%

Is the Climate Changing?A comprehensive analysis of available climate data (1961-2005) has revealed clear trends in temperature and rainfall. Both maximum and minimum temperatures in selected meteorological stations have shown significant increasing trends between 0.3- 2.8 C. This is parallel to an observed 5-20% decrease in precipitation in the majority of meteorological stations. Only 2 out of 19 stations show an increase of 5-10% in precipitation at the same time.Climate change projections for Jordan show an increase in temperature of less than 2 C by the year 2050. Warming was found to be stronger during the warm months of the year while less warming is projected to occur in the cold months of the year. An Increase in 2 C will result in a decreased rainfall by 20% until 2050. For the agriculture sector the results showed that climate change could have significant impacts in particular on rainfed agriculture and livestock sector

Socio-economic ImpactsClimate change is expected to play a detrimental role to human development by increasing the severity of resource scarcity in a country like Jordan, making access to natural resources more difficult. The poor are expected to be the most vulnerable societal group to the impacts of climate change as they possess the least assets and resources to keep adapting to the impacts of climate change. the following social groups can be most affected by climate changeFarmers depending on rainfed agriculture.Farmers depending on small scale irrigated agriculture.Families dependent on livestock management.Populations more prone to heat waves. Population suffering from the lack of proper access to safe and affordable drinking water.

CC Global GovernanceBali Action Plan 2007

1- Enhanced action on Adaptation to climate change2- Enhanced action on mitigation of climate change.3- Enhanced action on technology development and transfer.4- Enhanced action on the provision of financial resources and investment.

Durban 2011: A milestone on CC global negotiations.By 2020 a new treaty where all countries are equal (no developed vs. developing)Commitments are on all countries. Need to submit emission data each 2 years.What do we need to act?

Knowledge and WisdomGet rid of denialism.Identify the real challenges in numbers and facts Identify most vulnerable areas/sectorsIntegrate CC with development plans Mobilize public actions and involve communitiesWork rapidly on adaptation.Keep records of emissions updated and accessible.Use the existing resources for green energy

What Example?