climate crisis in the phil
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Climate Crisis in thePhilippines
Climate Change DiscussionCitizen's Disaster Response Center
December 3, 2009
AGHAMSamahang Nagtataguyod ng Agham atTeknolohiya Para sa Sambayanan
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Outline
IntroductionThe science of global warming
Who is to blame?
Climate crisis in the PhilippinesFalse solutions
People's responses
Our calls
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IntroductionG reat and exciting advances
e.g. Information technology,automation, genetics andmedicine
Greatest challenges
Famine and hunger, rapidecological destruction, breakdownof health systems, social decayand disintegration
The Philippines is rich in resourcesbut our people are in deep povertyand face high environmental risk
one billion people are hungry
160 million more malnourishedevery day world wide: 70,000persons join hungry and starvingmasses
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M ans interaction with natureResources for the production of his needs
Food, clothing, shelter Tools, processes, technologies
M ans interaction with manRelations with others
Dominance of a segment of society over others
Current dominance of monopoly
capital
Our environment is interlinked
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What is Climate Change?
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Climate and weather
The weather is theparticular state of the atmosphere in acertain region at acertain time
Ex. Rainy/ M aulan,
Warm/mainit,Windy/mahangin,Cloudy/maulap
The climate is thelong term weather trend of a certainregion over a timeperiod
Ex. Tropical
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Climate Change:Global warmingAccelerated warming of surface due to human-related releases of greenhousesgases (UNFCCC)
Projections of Surface Temperature ChangeProjections of Surface Temperature Change
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Accelerated temperature change
1900s hottest century
1995 to 2006, (except1996) - hottest decade
2005 and 1998 hottestyears
(Sources: Climatic Research Unit of the University of EastAnglia, Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office, Dataset TaveGL2v, Jones and Moberg, 2003)
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Greenhouse Effect
Rays of sunlight pwarm theearth's surface .
Earth's surface absorbs muchcomingdegrades it to longer-wavelengthinfrared radiation (heat) , which risesiabsorbed by molecules of greenhousegases a warms the lower atmosphere.
As concentrations of greenhousegases rise , more heat to the lower atmosphere.
(a)(a) (b)(b) (c)(c)
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Greenhouse Gases
Carbon dioxide C O2 considered as the most important GHG .
About 80% of the GHG emissions. Burning of oil and gas (for heat, transportation, industry), cement manufacturing,deforestation and other land uses. Also occurs naturally throughphotosynthesis, volcanoes, forest fires.
Methane CH 4 - third most common GHG ; Oil and gasproduction, coal mining, rice paddies, dams, landfills. Occursnaturally as things decompose and from livestock digestion.
Nitrous oxide N 2O - Burning of oil, gas, coal, and wood,
fertilizers, coal mining. Also occurs naturally.OT HE RS: Water vapor, Sulfur hexafluoride SF 6,
Perfluocarbons PFCs, H ydroflurocarbons H FCs
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Rise in global surface temperature
"Projected temperature
changes, 2000 to 2100scenario. " 2005.UNE P/ G RID-Arendal. 19 Nov 2009
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Rise in sea level
Trends in sea level, 1870-2006 June 2007. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 19 Nov 2009 .
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Global changes in precipitation
Precipitation changes: trends over land from 1900 to 2000.2005. UN E P/ G RID-Arendal. 19 Nov 2009
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Effects of global warming
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Source: Science M agazine, Sep 16, 2005
Increasing Strength and frequencyof Typhoons (Category 4/5)
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Extreme Weather Events
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5 Most Vulnerable CountriesWorld Bank, 2009
Malawi droughtSudan droughtBangladesh rising sea level
Vietnam - floodPilipinas - typhoon
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The entire Philippines is a climate hotspot.
1 meter rise in sea level may effect 64 outof 81 provinces, 703 of the 1,610municipalities ~ 700 M sqm of land acrossthe country from 2095 to 2100.
Affected provinces include: Palawan,Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte,Catanduanes, M asbate, Samar, NorthernSamar, Bohol, Cebu, Capiz, NegrosOccidental, Davao del Norte, ZamboangaSibugay, Zamboanga del Norte,Zamboanga del Sur, Tawi-tawi,M aguindanao, Sulu
Source: G reenpeace. The Philippines, A Climate hotspot.
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Estimated mortality attributable toclimate change
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Philippines is disaster prone
In 2008, 253 natural and human-induceddisasters affecting 8.5 million people
M ost devastating disaster: tropical cyclonesaffecting more than 1 million (Typhoon Frank;internal displacements affecting 684,682 (landing asin top place according to the Norwegian RefugeeCenter)
In 2009, Disaster figures will surely double the2008 figuresOndoy, Pepeng, floodings in M indanao
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Children/ Women and Climate ChangeM ore than 46% of the world's
population is now younger than 25years old.Source: UNIC E F UK Climate ChangeReport 2008
Approximately 175 million childrenwill be affected by climate changeinduced natural disasters every year over the next decade. This is 50million more than during the ten yearsto 2005. About 5-12 M women &children were affected by water-based infectious diseases(Schistosomiasis resulting to bloodyurine and liver disorder)Source: Legacy of Disasters; Children Bear the Bruntof Climate Warming, Save the Children UK 2007; IbonPrimer on Climate Change
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Poor countries like the Philippinesare vulnerable to enhanced hazardsdue to climate change
Impacts are worseLack of financial,institutionaland technological capacityand access to knowledge
Impact disproportionatelyupon poor within countriesE xacerbates inequities inhealth status and access toadequate food, clean water and other resources.
0%
20%
40%
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1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
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ffected
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CIT
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1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Number
ffected (Millions)
Dev 'ed
CIT
Dev 'ing
LDC
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Who are the world's largest emitter of green house gases?
Top 20 greenhouse gas emitters(including land use change andforestry). 2009. UN E P/ G RID-Arendal. 19 Nov 2009
US is the largestemtter in volume
and per capita
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Who is the largest historical GHGemitter?
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CO 2 concentration in theatmosphere highest in thepast 650,000 years.
Increase of CO 2 - from 280parts per million (ppm)before industrial period to379 ppm in 2005.
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Historical context
Unprecedented rise inGHG production andconcentration on theonset of capitalist
systemIndustrial revolutionM odern technology
Intensive use of machines and fossilfuels for transportation,trade and energy.
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CO2 emissions fromindustr
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Imperialism and Global WarmingCharacteristics of capitalist production
Production for profit
AnarchicWasteful and pollutiveM onopoly on production,resources, capital
Division of the world market, raw materials andwar
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Plunder and war
Free market globalizationpolicies
Unhampered entry, controland exploitation of rawnatural resources and of people.
Atrocious campaigns of wars of aggressionG ain direct or tighter control of land and naturalresources.G ain control over markets
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Third world industries
Cheap labor for reassembly of parts andreexport of goods
Use older productionequipment
Dumping grounds for
finished goods and wastes
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Role of International Finance
International finance capitalStimulate production andsale of consumer goods
Cover debt service burdenand budgetary deficits
Developing countries forcedto follow rescriptions of the
IM F and the WB which openup resources and markets
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Global warming worsens the impactof imperialist plunder
Under a systerm where profit is the primaryobjective of societal production, theenvironment and our ecosystems are reduced
to being a source of raw materials and dumpingground for wastes.
Under such a system, countries which top thelist in terms of profit and industrial might alsobecome the world's foremost culprits of environmental degradation.
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Environmental crisis in the Philippines
Large scale plunder of the environment
Without benefit to themajority of our people
Benefits only a smallsegment of society
Large scale effect onsociety
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The role of extractive industries inthe Philippines
Deforestation- Forest cover is estimated in 2000 to have
fallen to only 18 % of the total land area(ideal is 54 % of land area)
Large-scale miningL arge scale TNC plunder in mining is oneof the main causes of environmentaldegradation in the country
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GHG emissions in the Philippines
Transport (34%), E nergy (29%),Industry (17%), Agriculture (10%),Others (10%)
Transport
Oil industry controlled by Big 3Second hand engines
M ost industrial activity isextractive and export orientedE nergy industry privatizedunder E PIRA Greenhouse gas
mitigation strategy: ThePhilippine Experience ( Oct2001)
Energy29%
Transport34%
Industri al17%
Agriculture10%
Others10%
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Climate change aggravatesenvironmental hazards
In the Philippines, disasters whether climate-induced or not add up to the alreadyimpoverished situation of the majority of Filipino
families who are living below the poverty lineThe harmful effects of climate change and thedisasters it induced bear heavily on the mostvulnerable or marginalized segments of the
Philippine population especially the poor peasants
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VulnerabilityFactors and conditionsadversely affecting the abilityof the community torespond,cope with or recover easily from disaster events.
H igh Poverty IncidenceH igh Inflation Rates
Low wages despite theincreasing daily cost of livingH igh unemployment andunderemployment rate
Landlessness/Inequitabledistribution of countrysresources
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Government policies aggravates our climate vulnerabilityOct. 29 Arroyo signed Climate Change Act of 2009 (RA 9729) Climate Change Commission
Other destructive policiesE PIRA
Biofuels ActOil deregulation lawM ining Act 1995
Forestry CodeNeoliberal G lobalizationCorruption
Bureaucrat Capitalism
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False solutions
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K yoto Protocol 1997
International agreement under the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)
reduce GHG emissions, on average by about 5%between 2008-2012 relative to 1990The flexibility mechanisms carbon trading
Funding mechanisms to assist developing
countries175 countries except US and Australia (Australialater signed on Kyoto)
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Failure of mitigation limits
Failure of the 1997 KyotoProtocol to reduce GHG emission
After 12 years, GHG emission continues toaccelerate..
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Monopoly capital seeks to profitmore from the climate crisis
Carbon offset mechanisms shift outcarbon mitigation and reduction out of industrialized countries towardsdeveloping countries.
Distort development activities whilekeeping consumption and productionactivities of industrialized countries.
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Asymmetric responsibility andvulnerability
Inverse relationship betweenclimate change vulnerabilityand responsibility
Primary emitter countries mustchange their productionactivities and consumption of energy and seek sustainablesolutions.
Basic human needs, economicand social development needadequate energy andinfrastructure.
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Clean Development Mechanisms
Clean DevelopmentM echanisms (CD M )and carbon tradingeffectively marketize
carbon emissionsShuffles aroundresponsibility to curbemissions.
Does not addressissue of overproduction
UNE P/ G RID-Arendal
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Post- K yoto/C OP 15
Copenhagen, Denmark 2009Opportunity to overhaul Kyoto ProtocolObama, G loria announcement in AP E C summiteffectively postpones any discussion in COP 15 about
a replacement of the Kyoto protocolPossibly in M exico later (COP16??)
Other calls to peg targets (see 350.org)
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Technology solutions
Biofuels
Renewable E nergy
Nuclear plants
RE DDG eoengineering
Carbon capture andStorage (CCS)
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L ifestyle changes?
Lifestyle change/footprintM ake CFLs cheap and accessibleProvide cheap and accessible renewable power
Provide cheap and accessible technologyE ngage in local production of goods (nationalindustrialization)
Do not sell out energy resources
Banning technologies that are pollutive
Develop products that are cost effectiveM ass transport
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People's Initiatives
y Community based disaster response - Capacity building for vulnerable communities
y Defend our patrimony andcommunities against foreign andlocal plunder
13 metallic minerals (7.1 B M T)
29 non-metallic (51 B M T)G old (2nd)
Copper (3 rd)
Biodiversity area
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People's Initiatives
Popularize and implementproper and sustainable useof our natural resources inline with people's welfare andinterests, proper technology,and mitigation measures
Popularize correctperspective towardsenvironmental issues pro-people, patriotic, andscientific orientation
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Multisectoral formations
Philippine ClimateWatch Alliance: broad,national
People's Action on
Climate Change:International
People's M ovement onClimate Change:International, People'sProtocol on ClimateChange
c
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Genuine development for all
Work towards asustainable, independentand progressive local
economy.NationalIndustrializationG enuine AgrarianReform
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E xisting environmental and social problems aggravated byglobal warming will persist until the plunder of the world for globalization's greed for profits end.
c