Climate databases and Forecasting Systems in the Caribbean

Adrian TrotmanCaribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology

• Small climate sensitive economies that often lack significant Small climate sensitive economies that often lack significant diversity and are susceptible to economic shocks;diversity and are susceptible to economic shocks;– Agriculture and service based economics with the exception being Trinidad and Agriculture and service based economics with the exception being Trinidad and

Tobago which has a petroleum based economyTobago which has a petroleum based economy

• Inter-related economies;Inter-related economies;• Many small island states with small populations that are Many small island states with small populations that are

predominantly coastal;predominantly coastal;• Many states have low GDPs and small tax basesMany states have low GDPs and small tax bases• Several water scarce islandsSeveral water scarce islands• Complex inter-related environmental hazards and highly vulnerable Complex inter-related environmental hazards and highly vulnerable

populationspopulations– Hazards include hurricane, drought, flood, earthquake, tsunami and landslides Hazards include hurricane, drought, flood, earthquake, tsunami and landslides

among otheramong other

• Susceptibility to climate change and climate variabilitySusceptibility to climate change and climate variability

Challenges to Sustainable Development in Challenges to Sustainable Development in the CMO Member Statesthe CMO Member States

• Over the last three decades, the Caribbean region has suffered direct and Over the last three decades, the Caribbean region has suffered direct and indirect losses estimated at between USD 700 million to USD 3.3 billion due indirect losses estimated at between USD 700 million to USD 3.3 billion due to extreme weather events;to extreme weather events;

• The World Bank in a 2009 report determined that the cumulative annual The World Bank in a 2009 report determined that the cumulative annual impact of future climate change on all CARICOM Member and Associate impact of future climate change on all CARICOM Member and Associate Member States by ca. 2080 will be approximately USD 11.2 billion which Member States by ca. 2080 will be approximately USD 11.2 billion which represents 11.3 percent of the projected cumulative GDP of USD 99.3 represents 11.3 percent of the projected cumulative GDP of USD 99.3 billion (all estimates referenced to 2007 USD prices);billion (all estimates referenced to 2007 USD prices);

– The most significant contributors to the future annual cost of impacts are expected to be The most significant contributors to the future annual cost of impacts are expected to be direct losses due to climate change related disasters USD 4.9 billion (of which USD 2.6 direct losses due to climate change related disasters USD 4.9 billion (of which USD 2.6 billion are expected to result from wind storm damage, USD 363.2 million from flood billion are expected to result from wind storm damage, USD 363.2 million from flood damage and USD 447 million from loss in tourism revenues) and loss of tourist expenditure damage and USD 447 million from loss in tourism revenues) and loss of tourist expenditure due to temperature rise which is expected to be approximately USD 4 billion.due to temperature rise which is expected to be approximately USD 4 billion.

• SUPPORTING RISK REDUCTION AND SUPPORTING SUSTAINABLE SUPPORTING RISK REDUCTION AND SUPPORTING SUSTAINABLE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MUST BE THE FOCUS OF CMOSOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MUST BE THE FOCUS OF CMO

Challenges to Sustainable Development in Challenges to Sustainable Development in the CMO Member Statesthe CMO Member States

Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology

CMC

CIMH CMOHU

CMF

Caribbean Meteorological OrganizationCaribbean Meteorological Organization

• Caribbean Meteorological Caribbean Meteorological Council (CMC)Council (CMC)

• Caribbean Meteorological Caribbean Meteorological Organization – Headquarters Organization – Headquarters Unit (CMO-HU)Unit (CMO-HU)

• Caribbean Institute for Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology Meteorology & Hydrology (CIMH)(CIMH)

• Caribbean Meteorological Caribbean Meteorological Foundation (CMF)Foundation (CMF)

OrgansOrgans

CIMH MANDATECIMH MANDATE

“… to assist in improving and developing the Meteorological and Hydrological Services as well as providing the awareness of the benefits of Meteorology and Hydrology for the economic well-being of the CIMH member states. This is achieved through training, research, investigations and the provision of related specialized services and advice”.

• Caribbean Meteorological Institute (CMI) established August 23, Caribbean Meteorological Institute (CMI) established August 23, 1967 under special funding from UNDP and WMO1967 under special funding from UNDP and WMO– 16 Caribbean States that comprise the Caribbean Meteorological 16 Caribbean States that comprise the Caribbean Meteorological

Council were entrusted with the responsibility of managing CMICouncil were entrusted with the responsibility of managing CMI

• CMI becomes affiliated with UWI in 1973CMI becomes affiliated with UWI in 1973– B.Sc. in Meteorology established in Faculty of Natural SciencesB.Sc. in Meteorology established in Faculty of Natural Sciences

• CMI designated by WMO as a Regional Meteorological Training CMI designated by WMO as a Regional Meteorological Training Centre in 1978 (new designation RTC)Centre in 1978 (new designation RTC)

• Caribbean Operational Hydrology Institute (COHI) established in Caribbean Operational Hydrology Institute (COHI) established in 1982 and located at CMI ... COHI subsequently brought under CMI 1982 and located at CMI ... COHI subsequently brought under CMI in 1987in 1987

• Name of CMI changed to Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Name of CMI changed to Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology in 1999Hydrology in 1999

CIMH HISTORYCIMH HISTORY

• Anguilla, Antigua and Anguilla, Antigua and BarbudaBarbuda

• BarbadosBarbados

• BelizeBelize

• British Virgin IslandsBritish Virgin Islands

• Cayman IslandsCayman Islands

• DominicaDominica

• GrenadaGrenada

• GuyanaGuyana

• JamaicaJamaica

• MontserratMontserrat

• St. Kitts/NevisSt. Kitts/Nevis

• St. LuciaSt. Lucia

• St. Vincent and the St. Vincent and the GrenadinesGrenadines

• Trinidad and TobagoTrinidad and Tobago

• Turks and Caicos IslandsTurks and Caicos Islands

CMC MEMBER STATESCMC MEMBER STATES

• Train various categories of Train various categories of meteorological and meteorological and hydrological personnel hydrological personnel

• Operate as a centre of Operate as a centre of research in meteorology, research in meteorology, hydrology and associated hydrology and associated sciences sciences

• Data collection, storage, Data collection, storage, & dissemination& dissemination

• Maintain, repair, and Maintain, repair, and calibrate meteorological & calibrate meteorological & hydrological instruments hydrological instruments

• Advise regional governments Advise regional governments on matters related to on matters related to meteorology & hydrologymeteorology & hydrology

• Provide consulting services to Provide consulting services to industryindustry

PRIMARY FUNCTIONSPRIMARY FUNCTIONS

• Regional Instrument Calibration LaboratoryRegional Instrument Calibration Laboratory– Establishment of the instruments calibration lab established in 2007Establishment of the instruments calibration lab established in 2007

• Sea Level Monitoring and Equipment MaintenanceSea Level Monitoring and Equipment Maintenance– CIMH currently involved in redevelopment of sea level monitoring stations CIMH currently involved in redevelopment of sea level monitoring stations

across the Caribbeanacross the Caribbean– CIMH will be responsible for maintenance of several of these stationsCIMH will be responsible for maintenance of several of these stations

• Support for International Research and Development Projects Support for International Research and Development Projects (NASA, U. Miami, Max Planck Institute and CCCCC)(NASA, U. Miami, Max Planck Institute and CCCCC)• Instrument installation (lidar and small radar systems)Instrument installation (lidar and small radar systems)• Monitoring and Maintenance Monitoring and Maintenance

• Regional Maintenance/SupportRegional Maintenance/Support– CIMH continues to support requests from regional meteorological office and CIMH continues to support requests from regional meteorological office and

governmentsgovernments

• Research and DevelopmentResearch and Development• Developed a data-logger and rain gauge recording system (hardware and Developed a data-logger and rain gauge recording system (hardware and

software customizable to client needs)software customizable to client needs)

Instrument Calibration and Instrument Calibration and MaintenanceMaintenance

• Historically primarily precipitation data were collected by the agricultural Historically primarily precipitation data were collected by the agricultural community community – 24-hr rainfall datasets can still be found in most countries. 24-hr rainfall datasets can still be found in most countries. – Fairly good spatial distribution of measuring stations. Fairly good spatial distribution of measuring stations. – Remaining data often on paper records.Remaining data often on paper records.

• National Meteorological and Hydrological Services often manage few National Meteorological and Hydrological Services often manage few stations with often poor spatial resolution.stations with often poor spatial resolution.– Underfunding often limits the temporal resolution of these datasets.Underfunding often limits the temporal resolution of these datasets.– Much of the historical data is in the form of paper records. Much of the historical data is in the form of paper records. – Several meteorological parameters measuredSeveral meteorological parameters measured– Data often of sufficient quality to be entered into global climate databasesData often of sufficient quality to be entered into global climate databases– Quality management systems weak.Quality management systems weak.

• Miscellaneous StakeholdersMiscellaneous Stakeholders– National Ministries National Ministries – Private companiesPrivate companies– Systems set up for specific purposes which limits the use of the dataSystems set up for specific purposes which limits the use of the data– Data often difficult to get a hold ofData often difficult to get a hold of

Evolution of Climate Data Gathering in Evolution of Climate Data Gathering in the Caribbeanthe Caribbean

• Sources of dataSources of data– National Meteorology and Hydrology Services remain the primary sources National Meteorology and Hydrology Services remain the primary sources

of data in each countryof data in each country• Widest variety of dataWidest variety of data• Collection net work is often spatially limitedCollection net work is often spatially limited• Reliance on other stakeholders for dataReliance on other stakeholders for data• Historical data often in hard-copy form making it difficult to useHistorical data often in hard-copy form making it difficult to use• Robust Quality Management System often not enforcedRobust Quality Management System often not enforced

– Other government ministriesOther government ministries• Ministries of Agriculture and Environment often manage climate and environmental data Ministries of Agriculture and Environment often manage climate and environmental data

collections and databasescollections and databases• Often these data are not contributed to the national database controlled by the agencies but Often these data are not contributed to the national database controlled by the agencies but

in some cases may be acquired on requestin some cases may be acquired on request• Robust Quality Management System often not enforcedRobust Quality Management System often not enforced• Collection systems may not often meet WMO standards and, as a result, the data cannot be Collection systems may not often meet WMO standards and, as a result, the data cannot be

contributed to international climate databasescontributed to international climate databases

– Corporate Entities and NGOsCorporate Entities and NGOs• Often have small networks which may not conform to WMO standardsOften have small networks which may not conform to WMO standards• Poor information as to the existence of the networkPoor information as to the existence of the network• Data not often sharedData not often shared

Data AvailabilityData Availability

• Failure of several countries to archive data at CIMHFailure of several countries to archive data at CIMH• Costs associated with data collection and archiving Costs associated with data collection and archiving

systemssystems– Data collection, archiving and quality assurance at CIMH is Data collection, archiving and quality assurance at CIMH is

approximately USD 250,000.00approximately USD 250,000.00– Most of these costs are not recoverableMost of these costs are not recoverable– As more databases are added costs will increaseAs more databases are added costs will increase– Sustainability of the system is susceptible to budgetary shortfalls Sustainability of the system is susceptible to budgetary shortfalls

at CIMHat CIMH

• A more strategic approach to data collection, archiving A more strategic approach to data collection, archiving and quality assurance at CIMHand quality assurance at CIMH

Challenges to Data Archiving at CIMHChallenges to Data Archiving at CIMH

Meteorological Data Archiving in the Meteorological Data Archiving in the CaribbeanCaribbean

• Why collect and archive? What is the importance Why collect and archive? What is the importance of archived data?of archived data?– Better understand the climatology of the region to support Better understand the climatology of the region to support

sectoral planning (e.g., agriculture, water resources planning, sectoral planning (e.g., agriculture, water resources planning, insurance, etc)insurance, etc)

– Support for global climate databases (e.g., GCOS)Support for global climate databases (e.g., GCOS)– Support engineering designs (e.g., drainage design to support Support engineering designs (e.g., drainage design to support

flood mitigation)flood mitigation)– Environmental change detectionEnvironmental change detection– Supports design of alternative systems and energy mixSupports design of alternative systems and energy mix

Data RescueHard copy and electronic data

Central Archive at CIMH

Weather and Climate Forecasting and Monitoring Systems

The Cycle of Disaster ManagementThe Cycle of Disaster Management

Short Term

• Up to seven days as produced by national Weather Services

Tuesday Partly cloudy with some scattered showers mainly during the morning. 31/26° Wednesday Fair to partly Cloudy with some scattered showers. 31/26 Thursday Cloudy with scattered showers.30/25°Friday Cloudy with scattered showers.30/25

Tues, 15 June Wed 16 June

What are the implications for agriculture?

Thur, 17 June Fri, 18 June

Tropical Cyclones/Strong Winds

• Agricultural losses from strong winds and flooding

• For some crops can have severe damage from winds of tropical depression strength – DOES NOT NEED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE

Advanced Flood Forecasting

Weather Research Forecasting model • Outputs: atmospheric variables at all

levels of the troposphere; the state of the atmosphere at different times in the future

• Forecasting tool: – Provides simulations on different

spatial scales– Real-time forecasting out a fortnight– Can be altered to better represent

the tropical atmosphere– Regional climate scenarios

HydroGeoSphere (Hydrological Model)• Outputs: Water depths; SW/GW flows; GW

saturations; Concentrations• Water resources management tool

– Flood forecasting– Simulate impact of contaminant transport– Simulate climate change scenarios

scenarios– Real time monitoring

Work in progress• Haiti recovery efforts

http://63.175.159.26/~haiti

WRF Outputs superimposed onto watershed map of Haiti

WRF Outputs superimposed onto 2D surface map

Seasonal• Seasonal rainfall outlook

produced every two months for a lead time of three months

• To be enhanced through the Re-establishment of the Regional Climate Outlook Forum, 21-23 June, 2010 Barbados

• Not only rainfall, but includes temperatures and sea conditions, hurricane season etc

Seasonal• Outlook/forecast also

used to aid in other forecasts…

• …e.g. drought• Caribbean Drought and

Precipitation monitoring Network

Station1 mth 3 mth 6 mth 12 mth Probability

VC BirdAntigua

0.42 - 2.15 -0.01 - 2.65 -0.73 - 1.14 -0.70 - 0.33 35

-0.43 - 0.42 -1.10 - -0.01 -1.27 - -0.73 -0.95 - -0.70 40

-1.64 - -0.43 -2.43 - -1.10 -1.76 - -1.27 -1.16 - -0.95 25

CIMHBarbados

0.39 - 1.72 -0.34 - 1.98 -1.64 - -0.13 -1.10 - -0.28 30

-0.44 - 0.39 -1.59 - -0.34 -2.17 - -1.64 -1.35 - -1.10 45

-2.04 - -0.44 -3.54 - -1.59 -2.65- -2.17 -1.55 - -1.35 25

Point SalineGrenada

0.41 - 2.67 -0.32 - 2.54 -2.23 - -0.20 -3.04 - -1.92 30

-0.43 - 0.41 -1.48 - -0.32 -2.59- -2.23 -3.19 - -3.04 45

-1.27 - -0.43 -2.74 - -1.48 -2.83 - -2.59 -3.28 - -3.19 25

Some impacts of 2009-10 Drought• 25 % loss in onion crop, 30 % loss in tomato crop in

Antigua• Prices of Tomatoes rose from $2.35/ pound in Feb 2010

to $6.00/ pound in Mar 2010.• Hydro power contribution in St. Vincent dropped from

28.69% in Feb 2009 to 12.01% in Feb 2010• Flow at Mirabeau, Grenada was 60 % below average• In Trinidad Caroni Arena lake 29.46 % of capacity• In Trinidad because of lack water for sanitation of

livestock cases of Mastitsis• As of February 22nd the Mona Reservoir was down to

40% of capacity while the Hermitage Dam was down to 34% of capacity.

• Record bush fires all across the Caribbean

• Increases in temperature• Decline in rainfall totals of up to 15 to 20 % by 2100• More intense rainfall events• Saline intrusion into water supplies, salinisation of soils• Increased number of major hurricanes• All of concern to agricultural risk management

Climate Change

Longer term goal

• Comprehensive weather and climate related EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative

CAMI

• Funded by the European Union’s ACP Science and Technology Programme

• Partnership between CIMH (Applicant), WMO, CARDI, Ten Meteorological Services

Cost of Action

• The total cost of the Action is estimated at 1,112,714.40 EURO

• The Contracting Authority undertakes to finance a maximum of 720,388.20 EURO, equivalent to 64.74% of the estimated total eligible cost of the action

Ten National Meteorological Services

• Guyana• Trinidad and Tobago• Grenada• St. Vincent and the Grenadines• Barbados• St. Lucia• Dominica• Antigua and Barbuda• Jamaica• Belize

The overarching objective of the Action is to increase and sustain agricultural productivity at the farm level in the Caribbean region through improved applications of weather and climate information using an integrated and coordinated approach.

Specific Activities of the Action

• Development of predictors of the rainy season potential characteristics through analysis of long-term climatic data and use of seasonal to inter-annual climate prediction models

• Interpretation of the climate predictor and near-real time weather information to support management decisions, especially irrigation scheduling

• Working with the agricultural research and extension agencies in developing an effective pest and disease forecasting system

Specific Activities of the Action

• Preparation and wide diffusion of a user-friendly weather and climate information newsletter for the farming community

• Organization of regular forums with the farming community and agricultural extension agencies to promote a better understanding of the applications of weather and climate information

• Building capacity of the Meteorological and Agricultural Services and research institutions