climate, economic growth, and national preferences for geoengineering
DESCRIPTION
By Malcolm FairbrotherTRANSCRIPT
Climate, Economic Growth, and National Preferences for
Geoengineering
Dr Malcolm FairbrotherDr Adam Dixon
School of Geographical SciencesUniversity of Bristol
15 August 2012
ContextIf you could choose a climate for your
country (especially temperature) what would you choose?
choice may soon no longer be amusingly hypothetical, because of geoengineering
even without geoengineering, questions about the consequences of future climate change for the economy
Q1: How do climatic conditions affect the economy?
Context: Geoengineering/Climate Preferences… and Conflicts?climate consequences of geoengineering
(and of climate change generally) are likely to vary cross-nationally
the economic benefits versus costs of geoengineering (including compared to uncontrolled climate change) may therefore be distributed unequally across countries
Q2: Based on a model of the consequences for the climate of different geoengineering scenarios, and a model of climate’s consequences for economic growth, what geoengineering options will different national governments prefer?
Q3: Are differences of views likely to be so marked as to generate unilateral actions and/or international conflict?
Economics of Geoengineeringfew people prefer geoengineering to
mitigation, but…technical feasibility (of various
geoengineering options) is under investigation, and appears to be not far off
financial costs of geoengineering may be lower than those of greenhouse gas emission reductions
mitigation through emissions reductions requires multilateral (collective) action, while geoengineering may be possible for even just one actor unilaterally…a country (with strong
science/engineering capacity)maybe even a corporation or a very
wealthy individual
Costs (and Benefits?) of Climate Change and/or GeoengineeringA. ecological
status quo best (also for ecosystem services)
B. economic1. costs of geoengineering2. costs of transition/adaptation to new
climate3. sea level rise4. weather (fluctuations from climate)5. impacts of climate on growth
Costs (and Benefits?) of Climate Change and/or Geoengineering
1. costs of geoengineering2. costs of transition/adaptation to new
climate3. sea level rise4. weather (annual/briefer fluctuations
from climate)5. impacts of climate on growth
financial implications of 4-5 potentially largest
unless SLR is really substantial… 4 and 5 could have benefits for some
regions, not just costs we focus here on 5, and the question of
how different climates would affect countries’ economic growth rates
Climate and Economystandard (old) observation: cold countries
tend to be rich, and hot countries tend to be poore.g., Montesquieu 1748, Huntington 1915
a few exceptions:North Korea, post-socialist nations (e.g.,
Mongolia)Singapore, small oil-rich nations (e.g.,
Qatar)renewed interest in the impacts of
climate/natural geography on economic growth and incomespartly, but not only, because of climate
changenew datasets, methodspolicy implications (e.g., aid for African
development?)
Climate and Economy: LiteratureJeffrey Sachs and collaborators:
Africa (e.g.) is poor partly because of climate/natural geog
proximity to coast/navigable rivershealth burden of tropical disease
(especially malaria)also parasitic, disease, etc., impacts on
plants, livestockpolicy implication: foreign aid for specific
climate-counteracting measures (e.g., mosquito nets, agricultural productivity-enhancing technology)
method: cross-sectional regressions with countries as units, and GDP/capita as the outcome
Climate and Economy: A Caveatso is “colder always better”? maybe, but
maybe not…historically, climate/natural geography led
to cross-national differences in key economic, political, and social institutions
institutions have been a (some say the) primary source of cross-national income differences (see Rodrik, etc.)
absence of corruptioncapable public administration, law
enforcementeffective public education and health
servicesetc.
alternatively, maybe European colonialism simply exploited the hot world to the (enduring) advantage of the cold
Climate and Economy: A Caveatimplication: climatic differences across
nations are collinear with national-level conditions that could be the real determinants of (growth rates in) living standardsrisk of naïve interpretations of regressions
of income on climatic variableshow then to control for potentially
confounding national-level variables?
Climate and Economy: Finer Scaleone solution: draw contrasts within
countriesand within-country analyses have two other
advantages:1. climatic averages for large countries are
dubious exploit disaggregated data
2. if we want to know, counterfactually, how a region would be affected by a different climate, comparing it to another in the same country controls for lots of things
even if the climate were to change, many other things probably wouldn’t (culture, political system…)
Climate and Economy: LiteratureDell, Jones, and Olken (DJO) 2009:cross-sectionally, warmer temperatures are
correlated with lower per capita incomes…not just across countries (-8.5% per 1°C
rise),but also within them,and even within regions within countries
data: municipal-level, from 12 countries in the Americas
all this “suggests that omitted country characteristics are not wholly driving the cross-sectional relationship between temperature and income”
so again, for human welfare, is “colder always better”?
Climate and Economy:From GDP/capita to GDP/km2
Nordhaus 2006 (etc.):produced a “G-Econ” dataset with
estimates of economic activity for 1° by 1° land gridcells in 1990 (N = ~20,000)
“Gross Cell Product” (GCP), not per capitakey findings:
temperature again the most important climatic variable
per area instead of per capita, higher temperatures are correlated with more output, not less, and non-linearlyoutput/area peaks at about 12°C
most economic deserts are not hot, but cold (e.g., Canada)
method: cross-sectional correlations of climate with GCP
Nordhaus: A “Climate-Output Reversal”
GDP/area:rises with temperature, then declines past ~12°C
GDP/capita:declines
monotonically with
temperature
GDP/capita and GDP/km2at the national level, GDP/capita is probably
the greater concernbut within countries, differences in the
concentration of GDP in different areas may tell us something about where people want to livepopulation movements may reflect
human security, economic opportunities, climate-related quality of life
national climate/geoengineering preferences could therefore reflect impacts on either GDP/capita or GDP/km2we consider both
Weather and the Economyother studies look not at climate, but the
effects of weather (year-on-year fluctuations, drought, etc.)
some studies say precipitation matters more than temperature, others the opposite
e.g., DJO 2012: +/-1°C fluctuations increase/reduce GDP growth by 1.3% (not just the level of GDP)though only for poor countries, not richand by many means, not just through
effects on agriculturee.g., political instability
Existing Models: SummarySachs, Nordhaus, DJO 2009, others: cross-
sectionallimitation: growth over time ≠ cross-
sectional differencesalso limitations of many studies because
only national-levelDJO 2012, others: fluctuations from the
norm over timelimitation: dismisses the norm (what if
the norm changes?)
Our Modelling Strategywe investigate how economic production
changes (grows) over time, and varies cross-sectionally, treating production as a function of time-invariant climate characteristics1. at the national level (differences among
nations)2. at the sub-national level (differences
within nations)model GDP growth using a multilevel
“growth curve”interact time-invariant X variable of
interest with timeallow for potentially non-linear
relationships, and cross-national heterogeneity, using random slopes
Multilevel Modellingfour-level multilevel model, with cell-years
(i) cross-classified in cells (c) and country-times (t), and cells and country-times in turn both nested within countries (j):
mean-centre each covariate by countryproduces (e.g.) mean temperature by
country, and difference between gridcell temperature and country mean
Dataclimate data from Irvine et al.
based on HadCM3L, a Met Office Hadley Centre atmosphere-ocean general circulation model used in the IPCC’s Third and Fourth Assessments
geoengineered climate scenariosnational-level economic data from the Penn
World Table 7.0gridcell data from G-Econ project (Nordhaus
et al.)four waves: 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005billions of current USD (market exchange
rates)observations on 19,365 gridcells in 174
countriesa small number excluded (offshore,
etc.)
Coefficient Estimate (* p < 0.05) Estimate (* p < 0.05)
(Intercept) 17.4* 18.0* FixedEffects Coefficients
poly(dprec,2)1 58.2* 48.0*
poly(dprec,2)2 -63.1* -74.1*
time 0.110* 0.129*
poly(dtemp,2)1 367* 173*
poly(dtemp,2)2 18.8* -44.7*
poly(cm.temp,2)1 249* 98.3
poly(cm.temp,2)2 -393* -344*
time:poly(dtemp,2)1 6.38* 2.59*
time:poly(dtemp,2)2 -1.75* -4.81*
time:poly(cm.temp,2)1 19.3* 8.17*
time:poly(cm.temp,2)2 -1.86 -0.726
RE Gridcell 8.66 7.07 Random Effects Variances
RE Country-Year 0.05 0.04
RE Country 4.69 4.33
RE Residual 0.15 0.17
# countries 173 (all) 152 (no big oil producers)
Outcome: Gross Cell Product
Coefficient Estimate (* p < 0.05) Estimate (* p < 0.05)
(Intercept) 8.57* 8.61* Fixed Effects Coefficients
poly(dprec,2)1 -4.28* -5.39*
poly(dprec,2)2 4.31* 4.46*
time 0.08* 0.09*
poly(dtemp,2)1 -28.26* -5.43*
poly(dtemp,2)2 -14.49* 2.87*
cm.temp -0.06* -0.07*
time:poly(dtemp, 2)1 1.95* 1.56*
time:poly(dtemp, 2)2 -0.57* -1.21*
time:cm.temp 0.00 -0.00
RE Gridcell 0.24 0.17 Random Effects Variances
RE Country-Year 0.05 0.04
RE Country 3.01 2.69
RE Residual 0.02 0.01
# countries 173 (all) 152 (no big oil producers)
Outcome: Gross Cell Product Per Capita
Conclusions/Implicationsgrowth within countries may be… like
Goldilocks?appears to hold either per capita, or in
absolute termsfor some countries, the economic
implications of “predictable” climate change may be… positivemany countries are better off (in terms of
predicted growth in human standards of living) in a “warmed” scenario
does imply potential international conflicts over interest over geoengineering
A Final Caveatthis analysis addresses the economic
implications of changes in the typical climate of a place… not the weather
sea level rise, extreme weather events (droughts, storms, etc.), and increased year-on-year climate variability all have potentially huge costs
those potential costs, compared to the small relative costs of greenhouse gas emission reductions, still imply an aggressive climate mitigation strategy (e.g., a $30/tonne price for CO2)EU Emissions Trading System, British
Columbia carbon tax