climate emergency, 2030 targets and the role of buildings · 2019-11-05 · cutting emissions -...
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Climate emergency, 2030 targets and the role of buildings
Jenny Hill
Team leader – Buildings & International
29 October 2019
Where do we stand?
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Global warming
Source: Scripps Institution of Oceonography
@Jenny_C_Hill
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Global warming
Source: Scripps Institution of Oceonography
@Jenny_C_Hill
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Global warming
Source: Scripps Institution of Oceonography
@Jenny_C_Hill
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Global warming
Source: Scripps Institution of Oceonography
@Jenny_C_Hill
What do we do about this?
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Gre
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ho
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gas
em
issi
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s (G
tCO
2e/y
r)
>66% 2°C -
Range
>50% 1.5°C -
Range
>50% 1.5°C -
Median
>66% 2°C -
Median
Historical
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O2
/yr)
Global emissions pathways consistent with Paris show declining CO2 emissions rapidly to net-zero
@Jenny_C_Hill 8
Global emissions pathways consistent with ParisCO2 (left) Aggregated GHGs (right)
Source: Huppmann, D. et al. (2018) A new scenario resource for
integrated 1.5°C research.
Cutting emissions - Science and international context
@Jenny_C_Hill 9
Global emissions pathways – the need for net zero
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601990
2000
2010
2020
2030
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2050
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2080
2090
2100
Gre
en
ho
use
gas
em
issi
on
s (G
tCO
2e/y
r)
>66% 2°C - Range
>50% 1.5°C - Range
>50% 1.5°C - Median
>66% 2°C - Median
Historical
Source: Huppmann, D. et al. (2018) A new scenario resource for
integrated 1.5°C research.
Cutting emissions - Science and international context
@Jenny_C_Hill 10
Global emissions pathways – the need for net zero
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
601990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Gre
en
ho
use
gas
em
issi
on
s (G
tCO
2e/y
r)
>66% 2°C - Range
>50% 1.5°C - Range
>50% 1.5°C - Median
>66% 2°C - Median
Historical
Source: Huppmann, D. et al. (2018) A new scenario resource for
integrated 1.5°C research.
Cutting emissions - Science and international context
@Jenny_C_Hill 11
Global emissions pathways – the need for net zero
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
601990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Gre
en
ho
use
gas
em
issi
on
s (G
tCO
2e/y
r)
>66% 2°C - Range
>50% 1.5°C - Range
>50% 1.5°C - Median
>66% 2°C - Median
Historical
Source: Huppmann, D. et al. (2018) A new scenario resource for
integrated 1.5°C research.
UK has 5 legislated carbon budgets that are stepping stones to a 2050 80% target
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Carbon budgets and the cost-effective path to the 80% target
Progress across sectors is uneven with no significant falls in building emissions in recent years
13@Jenny_C_Hill
Net zero buildings – how and when?
How UK net-zero scenarios can be delivered
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Buildings: Emissions in 2050
Source: CCC analysis
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1990 2017 2050: Core 2050: Further Ambition
Dir
ect
em
issi
on
s (M
tCO
₂e)
Historical emissions
Buildings in heat dense areas
Heritage homes
Space constrained homes
On-gas homes, no constraints
Off-gas homes
Gas peak demand to hydrogen
Off-gas peak demand to biofuels
Cooking and other
@Jenny_C_Hill
Net Zero 2050: 95% of direct emissions from existing buildings can be abated at a total annual net cost of around £15 billion in 2050
(Net zero technical report, 2019)
Source: Element Energy for CCC, 2019 16
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10%
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-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Pro
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f se
gmen
t st
ock
ad
dre
ssed
Cost of abatement (£/tCO2e)
Suitable for DH
On gas, no constraints
On gas, space constrained
Off gas
Heritage
Speculative boundary
@Jenny_C_Hill
This is associated with a 25% reduction in heat demand, and deployment of 19m heat pumps, 5m district heat connections
and 0.5m electric storage heaters in existing homes by 2050
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Number deployed (millions)
Measure
Loft 21
Cavity wall 6
Solid wall 6
Floor 3
Energy savings (TWh/y) 92
Reduction in heat demand
25%
Source: Element Energy for CCC, 2019@Jenny_C_Hill
Low regret actions for buildings decarbonisation (Next steps for UK heat policy, 2016)
18@Jenny_C_Hill
A way forward on heat decarbonisation
19@Jenny_C_Hill Source: CCC 2019, Net Zero Technical report
Net zero buildings are one of the biggest challenges for achieving net zero by 2050. Policies will determine how
costs are allocated.
• 2020 – Strategy for decarbonised heat
• 2020 – Strengthen new-build standards to ensure all new homes from 2025 at the latest are designed for a changing climate, ultra energy-efficient and use low-carbon heat.
• Mid 2020s – Strategic decisions on the future of the gas grid
• 2020-2035 – Clear trajectory of standards for energy efficiency, with all new heating systems from 2035 at the latest being low-carbon
All this must be underpinned by tackling performance and compliance issues, implementing a nationwide training programme to upskill and reforming monitoring metrics and certification
20@Jenny_C_Hill
Annex slides
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Uncertainty remains over whether this level (£4bn/year) of household conversion costs would be required.
10 Mt Scenario
Costs of heat decarbonisation scenarios are within 10% of each other, across alternative heat pathways
(Hydrogen in a low-carbon economy, 2018)
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Biomass is a finite resource that should be used to maximise avoided and sequestered CO2
Source: CCC 2018, Biomass in a low-carbon economy@Jenny_C_Hill