climate forcings - copernicus...climate forcings dr william h. davies, university of reading and the...
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Atmosphere Monitoring
Climate ForcingsDr William H. Davies, University of Readingand the CAMS 74 teamCAMS 4th General Assembly, Budapest, 17-18 September 2019
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AtmosphereMonitoring
C A M S C l i m a t e F o r c i n g s
• We are a climate-focused service based on the CAMS Reanalysis of Atmospheric Composition.
• We provide estimates and uncertainties of radiative forcing exerted by changes in atmospheric composition caused by human activities.
• Our users are involved in the scientific and policy aspects of climate change.
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AtmosphereMonitoring Radiative forcing
quantifies energy budget imbalances
Positive radiative forcing means a gain in energy in the Earth system. Negative means a loss of energy.
Current estimates come from a variety of methods depending on the forcing agent. CAMS Climate Forcing brings consistency.
R a d i a t i v e f o r c i n g
Figure 8.15 of IPCC AR5, 2013
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AtmosphereMonitoring
V e r s i o n 1 p r o d u c t s
2003—2016
Carbon dioxide +20% per decadeMethane +3% per decade
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AtmosphereMonitoring
V e r s i o n 1 p r o d u c t e v a l u a t i o n
Comparison to IPCC AR5 (Chris Smith, Leeds)
Time series and envelope: CAMS version 1, uncertainties from a Perturbed Parameter EnsembleError bars: IPCC AR5 ranges (for methane, dashed bar accounts for Etminan’s correction)
Ozone will be evaluated in the Autumn 2019.
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AtmosphereMonitoring • In the process of estimating radiative forcing, we derive useful
distributions out of the CAMS Reanalysis, like anthropogenic aerosol optical thickness or profiles of cloud condensation nuclei.
A d d i t i o n a l p r o d u c t s
Cloud condensation nuclei concentrations
at 200 hPa [CCN, cm−3]
150
100
50
0
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AtmosphereMonitoring • Current work covers:
– Use of carbon dioxide and methane concentrations from CAMS73.• Accounts for the first time for daily/horizontal/vertical variations.
• Challenge: Find the best way to obtain a preindustrial state compatible with those distributions.
– Revision of aerosol optical properties, with CAMS43• Improvements to carbonaceous aerosol optical properties.
– Estimates of preindustrial ozone distributions, with CAMS42• Again, need to find the best way to obtain a preindustrial state compatible
with present-day distributions simulated in the CAMS Reanalysis.
• Challenge: Pushing the ECMWF C-IFS into new territory.
C u r r e n t w o r k a n d c h a l l e n g e s
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AtmosphereMonitoring
P r e i n d u s t r i a l o z o n e
First attempts were based on Cariolle simulations (left), which have important discrepancies compared to CMIP6 modelling (right):• Much larger industrial-era
increases in tropospheric concentrations
• Lack of an ozone hole
Thankfully, progress made by CAMS42 with BASCOE are very promising and will allow us to be fully CAMS-based for our ozone radiative forcing estimates.
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AtmosphereMonitoring
W h e r e t o f i n d o u r p r o d u c t s ?
http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/cams-climate-forcings/
Products will be updated to latest
version in the coming months.
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AtmosphereMonitoring
C A M S C l i m a t e F o r c i n g s
• We are a climate-focused service based on the CAMS Reanalysis of Atmospheric Composition.
• We provide estimates and uncertainties of radiative forcing exerted by changes in atmospheric composition caused by human activities.
• Our users are involved in the scientific and policy aspects of climate change.
• CAMS Climate Forcing is:– University of Reading
• Nicolas Bellouin, Will Davies, Keith Shine
– University of Leipzig• Johannes Quaas, Johannes
Muelmenstaedt
– University of Leeds• Piers Forster, Chris Smith
– MPI-Meteorologie Hamburg• Guy Brasseur, Natalia
Sudarchikova
– LMD, UPMC, Paris• Olivier Boucher
– CICERO Oslo• Gunnar Myhre