climate governance and development, berlin, 28-30 sep 2008 lose-lose risks and win-win options...
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Climate Governance and Development,Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008
Lose-Lose Risks and Win-Win Options
Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE
Potsdam Institute,Oxford University,
Tyndall Centre
1900 2000 2100
Glo
bally
ave
rage
d w
arm
ing
(ºC
)
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
B1
A1T
B2
A1B
A2
A1F
I
Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges forSurface Warming
(Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)
Cooling Effect of Aerosols
Dangerous Warming Commitment
(Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)
(Schellnhuber 2008 PNAS)
G8-Scenario and R&F‘s Invisible Hand
Integrated Assessment
Consider 3 crucial aspects of sustainable climate protection measures:
• Mitigation
• Adaptation
• Development
Identify
• Ecological Assets
• Economic Sectors
• Social Systems
highly sensitive to subset / totality of aspects
Prioritize accordingly!
Action Field Check
Development
Lose
Invest in Win-Win-Win Options
Disencourage Lose-Lose-Lose Risks
Ad
apta
tio
n
Mitigation
Win
Stagnate
LoseWin Stagnate
Lose
Win
Stagnate
LLL Examples• Urbanization of coastal zones,
mountain ranges, arid regions
• „Stradification“ of natural habitats
• Expansion of single-purpose fossil-fuel-based power stations
WWW Examples• Reduction of black carbon emissions through
biomethane generated from degraded-land afforestation
• Solarthermal power generation + desalinization by energy towers
• Sustainable architecture
Vulnerable Coastal Megacity: Mumbai
The Phoenix Metropolitan Area
Nouakchott, Mauritania
www.faszination-regenwald.de u. a.
(1) Biodiv/Wilderness moderately protected(2) Cropland not expanded
Erbrecht and Lucht, unpub.
17 % of currentglobalprimaryenergydemand81 EJ/yr557 Mha(not irrigated)
FractionalPlantation Area(2nd Generation Bioenergy)
BioenergyPotential (no irrigation)
Energy Tower Principle
Climate-fit urban design invented 2000 years ago