climate information for adaptation and risk management within local communities ccl-xv technical...
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Climate Information for Adaptation and Risk Management within Local Communities
CCl-XV TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON CHANGING CLIMATE AND DEMANDS FOR CLIMATE SERVICES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, Antalya, Turkey, 16-18 February, 2010
G SrinivasanRegional Integrated Multi-hazard warning System (RIMES)/ADPC
Kareff Rafisura, UNDP, Nepal
AR Subbiah, RIMES/ADPC
Content
• Adaptation and Management of climate risks
• End-to-end Systems to connect to local communities
• Assessment of user requirements – primacy of the user needs
• Examples
• Gaps
Climate Risk manifestations – what are we worried about?
i. Alteration of the mean state of climate
ii. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events
iii. Combination of i. and ii.
iv. Climate surprises (i.e. emergence of historically unexpected and sudden climate change-induced patterns)
Develop Capacities to Adapt to climate Change
Develop Capacities to Adapt to climate Change
Develop Capacities to Better Manage Climate/Disaster RisksDevelop Capacities to Better
Manage Climate/Disaster Risks
Develop Capacities to Manage
Risks Associated with Climate Variability & Change
Develop Capacities to Manage
Risks Associated with Climate Variability & Change
TIME HORIZONSTIME HORIZONS
Current Climate VariabilityCurrent Climate Variability Future
2030s 2050s 2070s
Future
2030s 2050s 2070s
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Sectoral Impacts
Vulnerabilities
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Sectoral Impacts
Vulnerabilities
Future Impacts
In the Context of CRM
Future Vulnerabilities
Future Impacts
In the Context of CRM
Future Vulnerabilities
Climate Information Services
Assimilate the Best Knowledge Available
Upgrade Operational Systems for Monitoring
and Forecasting relevant/customized to
local needs Create Appropriate Delivery Mechanism
Conceptual Steps in the End-to-End System for Communities
Monitoring and Generation of Early Warning
Customization and communication to sectoral agencies
Sector agencies translate into disaster scenario
Alert /warning messages issued to specific agencies in the field
Coordinated Community response to the alert or warning in terms of preparedness
Met Service
Monitoring
Early Warning Systems
Customization and dissemination protocols
How effectively forecasts are translated to disaster preparedness relevant information eg Flood Warnings
Involvement of grass root organizations in mobilization of community level response
Provincial Governmental actions etc.
Overall vulnerability reduction through development interventions
Poverty alleviation and sustainable development
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Total Hydrograph
Surface Response
Baseflow
Global, Regional Model Product
s
Regional
Products
Probabilistic location specific
hydro-met & geo
informationHazard
Derivatives
Risk Thresholds
ECMWF, NCEP, CMA, UKMO
RIMES/ADPC, Natl. DRR Agencies, Communities
Impact Outlooks
Risk Management tools
Managing climate risks by connecting science, institutions, and society
Climate Information Applications at Community Level
‐ The six step CFA methodology consists of:
• Assessment of user needs and existing capacities of national institutions to meet these needs (need/capacity assessments)
• Assessment of relevance of latest scientific information to meet these needs (assessment of available science/technology)
• Developing partnerships and enhancing capacities of natio nal institutions to generate climate information
• Institutional development to communicate information to end users ‐ ‐ (institutionalization of end to end system: pilot dem
onstrations, replication)
• ‐ Applying information to enable pro active decision making
• Monitoring and evaluation of applicability of information
Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (CFAB)
• Evolved long lead forecast- up to 10 days forecast models in collaboration with Georgia Tech University, USA
• Tested the models in 2004
• Operational on experimental basis since 2006
ADPC Project
Support - USAID
Partners - CARE, Bangladesh, Univ. of Colarado, Georgia Tech – Earth Atmospheric Sciences; BMD, Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) of Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB)
Institutional Collaboration For Sustainable End-to-end Generation and Application of Flood Forecasts
BMD
Climate (rainfall and discharge) forecasting technology
(EAS)/ADPC
Agro met translation
FFWC Discharge translation
IWM
DMB, DAE
Interpretation
Communication
End users
ADPC, CARE ,CEGIS ADPC
ADPC, CARE,CEGIS ADPC
Climate forecast ADPC GCEGI
S //GECIS
G
Institutional and community responses on 2007 flood forecast
Flood forecast issued for two
boundary locations
Incorporated into customized local model
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Communication to project partners
24 Jul
Communication to stakeholders and local DMC members
25 Jul
Communication to Disaster Emergency Group
26 Jul
Discussion of options with local communities, CBOs, local working group members, networks
30 Jul 2 Aug
Information to relief agencies about the extent of flooding
Local institutions prepared response and relief plans
Community in low lands reserved their food, drinking water, fodder requirements
Local Disaster Management Committee and Volunteers prepared for rescue
Aid agencies arranged logistics and begin dialogue with district administration
Relief distribution started in affected locations
Flood water exceeded danger level on 28th July
Low lying areas are flooded on 29th July
Some examples of forecast provider & user forums in Asia
Philippines Inter-agency Committee on Rice and Corn (food security); Technical Working Group (water resources management); Climate Forum (non-targeted, various sectors); Local Climate Forum (provincial level)
Myanmar Monsoon Forum
Mongolia Winter/Spring Forum
Indonesia Climate Field School for Farmers (community-level) Science and Policy Forum (district-level policy making) National Monsoon Forum (starting October 2008)
East Timor October 2008
Monsoon Forum objectives
• Ensure that forecast products, including their uncertainties and limitations, are understood by and communicated to users on a regular basis
• Provide a platform for inter-agency coordination of policies and programs for dealing with potential impacts of climate-related hazards on seasonal basis
• Encourage climate forecast applications for mitigating risks in various climate-sensitive sectors;
• Provide a platform for long-term process of understanding risks posed by/opportunities brought about by past, current, and future climate
Output
• Preparedness plan for every season
• Short and medium term recommendations on how to improve inter-agency coordination and collaboration towards greater uptake of climate information for various purposes (e.g. disaster risk reduction, planning, etc.)
• Recommendations on how to better tailor climate information products to support decision making
• Long-term policy recommendations on how to better manage climate risks and adapt to climate change
Institutional mechanism: Indonesia example
Directorate of Plant Protection
IPB (Bogor Agril. Univ.)
Provision of climate outlook
BMKG (Met. Geophys. Agency)
Translation of climate outlook
into impact outlook
Indramayu Agriculture Office
Conversion of impact outlook
into crop management
strategies
Dissemination of information to farmers and evaluation of
farmers response
Forums for climate information providers and Users
National: Seasonal climate forum (national meteorological and
hydrological service (NMHS), intermediate users - e.g. agriculture and water resources ministries)
Inter- (user) agency committees (NMHS, agriculture and water resources ministries, water regulatory board, dam operators, water concessionaires, hydropower agency)
Sub-national: Provincial working group (provincial meteorological and hydrological station, agriculture and irrigation departments, universities, local government units, NGOs)
Local: Local climate forum (local meteorological and hydrological
station, agriculture and irrigation departments, local government unit, local NGOs, farmers’ groups)
Field schools (provincial and local meteorological and hydrological station, agriculture extension, farmers)
Sample – typical example from farming sector
Critical climate risks are as follows:
• Wet season cropping (November/December‐March/April): Flooding in January/February is a major problem. The probability of flooding during this period is more than 50%.
• Farmers at the tail‐end of the irrigation system receive water only in December, while planting has to start in November. Otherwise, the paddy will not be tall enough to survive flooding in February.
• Dry season cropping (April/May‐August/September): Droughts in June to July is the major problem during this season. About 4,000 ha, or 60% of the total rice paddy area is vulnerable to drought.
• Tools built around down-scaled seasonal predictions are very useful
Forecast Applications – Timor-Leste• Program focused on Maubara sub‐district in Liquica District, which is
located on the north coast. • Climate Field Schools conducted
Climate Risk Management Project: Current variability and future change
• Sparse networks and discontinuity in climate observations
• Data rescue efforts required
• Capacities for data analysis
• Validation and careful interpretation of regional model results
• User interfaces with sector agencies
Research Institutions, Universities
Research output
Operational Forecast Institutions
GAPS
Societal Risks
Forecast products
GAPS
Addressing Key Gaps
1
2Addressed through CFAB type technology
Flexible mechanisms and enabling mechanisms for customized solutions
Building Institutional Partnerships & Capacities to evolve solutions
Flexible mechanisms and enabling mechanisms for customized solutions
Building Institutional Partnerships & Capacities to evolve solutions