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BMKG

Climate Prediction and Information for Climate Prediction and Information for Water, Agriculture and Energy Sectors in Water, Agriculture and Energy Sectors in

IndonesiaIndonesia

FIFTH TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON MANAGEMENT OF

METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES IN RA V

(SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC)

“Strategic Capacity Development of NMHSs in RA V”

1

Dr. Edvin AldrianThe Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG)

BMKG Outline of Presentation

2

• Introduction of new climate division within BMKG• Type of Climate Information services by BMKG• Introduction of climate type of the maritime

continent Indonesia• Contribution of BMKG for Water Sector• Climate information products for agriculture and

water sectors• Detail Sectoral Adaptation programmes• Climate Projection over Indonesia Maritime

Continent using 20km-mesh MRI AGCM• Forthcoming international event on climate

change in Indonesia• Conclusions

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DEPUTY OFCLIMATOLOGY

NEW ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE OF BMKGNEW ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE OF BMKGBMKG

CENTER OF PUBLIC

METEOROLOGY

CENTER OF AVIATION

AND MARITIMEMETEOROLOGY

CENTER OF AGROCLIMATE,AND MARITIME

CLIMATE

CENTER OFCLIMATE CHANGE AND AIR QUALITY

CENTER OFEARTHQUAKE

ANDTSUNAMI

CENTER OFSEISMOLOGY

ANDGEOPOTENSIAL

CENTER OFINSTRUMENTATION, CALIBRATION AND

ENGINEERING

CENTER OF COMMUNICATION

NETWORK

CENTER OFDATABASE

DEPUTY OFMETEOROLOGY

DEPUTY OFGEOPHYSICS

DEPUTY OFINSTRUMENTATION CALIBRATION

ENGINEER COMMUNICATIONNETWORK

UPTR & DEDUCATIONTRAINING

Executive Secretary

Director General

BUREAU OFPLANNING

BUREAU OF LAWAND ORGANIZATION

BUREAUGeneral Affair

INSPECTORATE

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Climate variability and change

Scientific justification:

Climate change express comparison (a change) of climate parameters against 30 years average (beyond 30 years). So far IPCC and UNFCCC has been taking care on deals with the issue of climate change.

WCC-3 concensus (second announcement Nov. 2008 “Theme of WCC-3)

This theme highlights the contribution that advances in climate prediction and information service at seasonal to multi decadal timescales. WCC3 should cover seasonal to multi decadal (>30 years). NMHS is expected to provide direction in tackling drought, floods, cold and heatwaves, famine and outbreaks of certain diseases (that need near term climate prediction)

Therefore, NMHS products shall focus on near term li t i bilit d li t h

BMKG Type of Climate Information services from BMKG

• Seasonal climate prediction for the monsoon onset (timing in two-pentads, timing comparison to average) and intensity of dry and wet monsoons for 11 regions up to 6 month ahead

• Monthly rainfall amount prediction up to three month ahead

• Monthly rainfall character prediction up to three month ahead (above normal, normal and below normal)

• Monthly climate prediction for water availability in agricultural sector

• Monthly climate prediction for flood potency• Annual climatology pattern of provincial capitals

including information on rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind and surface pressure.

BMKGClimatology of regional rainfallClimatology of regional rainfall•• Mainly monsoonalMainly monsoonal•• Three distinct rainfall climate regionsThree distinct rainfall climate regions

Three climate regions (Aldrian Three climate regions (Aldrian and Susanto 2003) update and Susanto 2003) update previous work by Wyrtki, 1956previous work by Wyrtki, 1956

monsoonalmonsoonal

SemiSemi--monsoonalmonsoonal AntiAnti--monsoonalmonsoonal

BMKGRAINFALL CLIMATOLOGICAL BY BMKG

BMKG

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PROJECTION OF ANNUAL AVERAGE RAINFALL 2010-2015

Source: Soetamto ‘Workshop Int’l HMD, Maret 2009

(Contribution of BMKG for Water Sector)

BMKG

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PROJECTION OF ANNUAL AVERAGE RAINFALL 2016-2020

Source: Soetamto ‘Workshop Int’l HMD, Maret 2009

(Contribution of BMKG for Water Sector)

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PREDICTION OF WET SEASON “CHARACTER” AND WATER AVAILABILITY; FEBRUARY – MARCH– APRIL 2009

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PREDICTION OF RAINFALL CHARACTER: FEBRUARY 2009(PERCENTAGE ANOMALY AGAINST 1971 – 2000 AVERAGE)

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PREDICTION OF RAINFALL CHARACTER: MARCH 2009(PERCENTAGE ANOMALY AGAINST 1971 – 2000 AVERAGE)

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PREDICTION OF RAINFALL CHARACTER: APRIL 2009(PERCENTAGE ANOMALY AGAINST 1971 – 2000 AVERAGE)

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PREDICTION OF 2009 DRY SEASON “ONSET” CHARACTERS” (APRIL UNTIL AGUSTUS)

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PLANTING LOCATION MAP: FEBRUARY I( Published: January II)

JAWA TIMUR

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0

50

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

BULAN / DASARIAN KE -

SURPLUS

AIR TERSEDIA

DEFISIT

Batas Kapasitas Lapang (KL)

Batas Titik Layu Permanen (TLP)

JAN FEB MAR APR1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3

0

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12


SURPLUS

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DEFISIT



JAN FEB MAR APR1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3

AREAL WATERBALANCE PREDICTION (PER DUAL PENTAD)FEBRUARY – MARCH– APRIL 2009

ZONA: 106, 110 , 114EAST JAVA

BMKG JAWA TENGAH

PLANTING LOCATION MAP: FEBRUARY II( Published: January III)

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AREAL WATERBALANCE PREDICTION (PER DUAL PENTAD)FEBRUARY – MARCH – APRIL 2009

ZONA: 53, 57, 58, 62, 65, 66, 67, 72, 73, 76, 82, 84, 87CENTRAL JAVA

0

100

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600

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12


SURPLUS

AIR TERSEDIA

DEFISIT



JAN FEB MAR APR

SURPLUS

1 2 3 1 2 30

100

200

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12


SURPLUS

AIR TERSEDIA

DEFISIT



JAN FEB MAR APR

SURPLUS

1 2 3 1 2 3

SURPLUS

1 2 3 1 2 3

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1st planting: 1 Jan, 2nd Planting: 1 May

-10000000

-5000000

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

1950

1958

1966

1974

1984

1992

2000

1952

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1968

1977

1986

1994

2002

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ulat

ive

Inco

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Diff

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from

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Syst

em (I

DR

)

Rice-MaizeRice-SoybeanRice-Fallow

1st Planting: 15 Jan, 2nd Planting: 15 May

-10000000

-5000000

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

1950

1958

1966

1974

1984

1992

2000

1952

1960

1968

1977

1986

1994

2002

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Inco

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Diff

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)

Rice-MaizeRice-SoybeanRice-Fallow

Farmers who consistently use ENSO information, in the long-term will get higher income than those who do not respond to climate forecast (Boer and Surmaini, 2006)

BMKGPUBLICATION SCHEDULE PLANTING TIME 1 (OCT – NOV – DEC)

AND PLANTING TIME 2 ( FEB – MAR – APR)CENTRAL JAVA PROVINCE

MT 1(OKT-NOV-DES) Lihat prakiraan

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JADWAL PUBLIKASI Zona

MT 2(JAN-FEB-MAR) Lihat prakiraan

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JADWAL PUBLIKASI Zona

OKT I SEP II 61, 64, 68, 69 JAN I DES II 77

OKT II SEP III 53, 57, 58, 62, 65, 66, 67, 72, 73, 76, 82, 84, 87 JAN II DES III 56, 60, 63, 71, 74, 75,

78, 83, 85, 88

OKT III OKT I 56, 60, 63, 71, 74, 75, 78, 83, 85 JAN III JAN I 54, 59, 70, 79, 80, 86,

89

NOV I OKT II 54, 59, 70, 79, 80, 86 PEB I JAN II 61, 64, 68, 69

NOV II OKT III 55, 81 PEB II JAN III53, 57, 58, 62, 65, 66, 67, 72, 73, 76, 82, 84,

87NOV III NOV I 88, 89 PEB III PEB I 55, 81

DES I NOV II _ MAR I PEB II _

DES II NOV III _ MAR II PEB III _

DES III DES I _ MAR III MAR I _

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Sector Adaptation option/strategy

Underlying policyframework

Key constraints and opportunities

to implementation(Normal font = constrain); italics

= opportunities)1.Water Expanded rainwater

harvesting;water storage and conservationtechniques; water re-use; desalination; water-use and irrigation efficiency

National water policies and integrated water resources management; water-related hazards management

Financial, human resources and physical barriers; integrated waterresources management; synergies with other sectors

2.Agriculture Adjustment of planting dates and crop variety; crop relocation;improved land management, e.g.erosion control and soil protection through tree planting

R&D policies; institutionalreform; land tenure andland reform; training;capacity building; cropinsurance; financialincentives, e.g. subsidiesand tax credits

Technological & financial constraints; access to new varieties; markets;longer growing season in higherlatitudes; revenues from ‘new’products

DETAIL SECTORAL ADAPTATION (Ref: IPCC, Nov. 2007)

Note: Other examples from many sectors would include Early Warning System

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Sector Adaptation option/ strategy Underlying policyframework


to implementation(Normal font = constrain);

italics = opportunities)3.Infrastructure / settlement(including coastal zones)

Relocation; seawalls and storm surge barriers; dune reinforcement; land acquisition and creation of marshlands/ wetlands as buffer against sea level rise and flooding; protection of existing natural barriers

Standards and regulationsthat integrate climatechange considerations into design; land use policies; building codes; insurance

Financial and technological barriers;availability of relocation space;integrated policies andmanagements; synergies withsustainable development goals

4.Human health Heat-health action plans;emergency medical services;improved climate- sensitive disease surveillance and control; safe water and improved sanitation

Public health policies that recognize climate risk;strengthened healthservices; regional andInternational cooperation

Limits to human tolerance(vulnerable groups); knowledgelimitations; financial capacity;upgraded health services; improved quality of life



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Sector

Adaptation option/ strategy


Key constraints and opportunitiesto implementation

(Normal font = constrain); italics = opportunities)

5.Tourism Diversification of tourism attractions& revenues; shifting ski slopes tohigher altitudes and glaciers;artificial snow-making

Integrated planning (e.g.carrying capacity; linkageswith other sectors); financial incentives, e.g. subsidies and tax credits

Appeal/marketing of new attractions; financial and logistical challenges;potential adverse impact on other sectors (e.g. artificial snow-making may increase energy use); revenues from ‘new’ attractions; involvement of wider group of stakeholders

6.Transport Realignment/relocation; design standards and planning for roads,rail, and other infrastructure to cope with warming and drainage

Integrating climate change considerations into national transport policy; investment

in R&D for specialsituations, e.g. permafrost

areas

Financial & technological barriers; availability of less vulnerable routes;improved technologies andintegration with key sectors (e.g.energy)



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Sector Adaptation option/ strategy



to implementation(Normal font = constrain);

italics = opportunities)7. Energy Strengthening of overhead

transmission and distributioninfrastructure; underground cabling for utilities; energy efficiency; use ofrenewable sources; reduceddependence on single sources of energy

National energy policies,regulations, and fiscal and financial incentives toencourage use ofalternative sources;incorporating climatechange in design standards

Access to viable alternatives;financial and technological barriers;acceptance of new technologies;stimulation of new technologies; useof local resources



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Responses to some recent extreme events reveal higher level of vulnerability than the TAR (The Third Assessment Report – 2001). There is now higher confidence in the projected increases in droughts, heatwaves and floods, as well as their adverse impacts

Responses to some recent extreme events reveal higher level of vulnerability than the TAR (The Third Assessment Report – 2001). There is now higher confidence in the projected increases in droughts, heatwaves and floods, as well as their adverse impacts

RISKS OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS(Summary of Policymakers of the

Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Nov. 2007)

BMG

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National Action Plan/ Mitigation Adaptation of Climate Change (Ministry of Environment)

BMKG in Cooperation with Concerned-University & institutions

Water harvest extensification Online Rainfall data from Min. of Public Work

Rainfall information (monthly rainfall and evaluation, monthly or annual average rainfall)

Daily and monthly temperature and moisture information

Rainy season Information (evaluation)

Dry season information (evaluation)

Soil water availability (for crops)

Flood risk potency forecast, 3 months ahead

Earthquake and tsunami risk maps

Water and land storage and conservation techniques

Efficiency of water usage and irrigationDam operational management improvement

IPCC (AR IV) & WMO

Water recycle,Sea water processing.

“BMKG” Activities to support National Action Plan on Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Severe

Impact for WATER RESOURCE sector

Universities (IPB, ITB, UI, UGM)

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•

Planting pattern and crop variety Rainy season prediction (monsoon onset, wet spell, rain character during the season)

Dry season prediction (monsoon onset, dry spell, rain character during the season)

Monthly rainfall prediction, 3 months ahead

Flood potency forecast, 3 months ahead

Short term rainfall forecast 10 days

Provide agroclimatology potency atlasProvide climate map

Provide drought risk mapGreen House Gasses information

•

Food diversity

•

Wetland intensification

•

Primary seed

Crop area extensificationIncrease use of natural fertilizer and reduce use of chemical fertilizer

IPCC (AR IV) & WMO

Planting area diversificationManagement improvement and land protection through rebiosation

“BMKG: Activities to support National Action Plan on adaptation and mitigation Climate Change Severe

Impact for AGRICULTURE sector


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Renewable energy utilization (wind, solar) Provide related weather information (wind, cloud cover, insulation, solar radiation)Provide climate information (wind direction and magnitude, solar radiation, rainfall) related to alternative energy resourcesNatural hazard risk area information due to extreme local weather such as tornado, high intensity rainfall .Natural hazard risk area information due to extreme climate such as low or high rainfall and increase temperature.Information of daylight lenghtThematic map of direct solar intensity frequencyThematic map of solar inclinationEarthquake and tsunami risk mapThunder risk map

IPCC (AR IV) & WMO

Cost reduction for transmission and distribution infra structureUnderground cabelling for public usageEnergy efficiency, renewable energy resources Reduce dependency to single energy sourceUtilization of wind and solar potencyDesign stageOperational stage

“BMKG” Activities to support National Action Plan on Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change

Severe Impact for ENERGY sector


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Center of Climate and Air Quality, Indonesia Meteorological and Geophysical Agency

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Annual total rainfall increase significantly

after the end of century and decrease over the mountainous area such as Sumatera and Papua

N = Near Future (2015-2034)F = Future (2075-2099)P = Present (1979-2003)

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Rainy Season Projection

Rainfall increase to all Indonesia region

significantly except mountainous area over Sumatera and Papua

Temperature increase and significantly over

Mountainous in Sumatera and Papua


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Dry Season Projection

Rainfall increase in Sumatera, part of

Kalimantan and Papua except part of Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, part of

Sulawesi and mountainous area over Papua

Temperature increase and significantly over

Mountainous in Sumatera and Papua


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Forthcoming international event on climate change in IndonesiaForthcoming international event on climate change in Indonesia

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Forthcoming international event on climate change in IndonesiaForthcoming international event on climate change in Indonesia

BMKG Conclusions

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• A new structure of BMKG highlight important new function of climate information service delivery for the climate variability and climate change

• Among the 10 sectoral issues, BMKG has started to cope with the water, agriculture and energy sector in order to provide climate information for the adaptation and mitigation strategy.

• The use of climate model for climate prediction is relatively new for Indonesia, there is a need for capacity building in this sector and focus more on the issue of ocean atmosphere climate since most of the area are covered by ocean.

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